Yikes! Look at these numbers: "Biden 44, Sanders 14, Warren 5, Harris 9, Buttigieg 2, O'Rourke 3, Booker 3, Klobuchar 2, Yang 0, Inslee 0, Gabbard 0, Castro 0."
It's a poll of all registered voters. [I MEAN: It's a poll of registered voters, so it includes Republicans and Democrats and people who are likely and unlikely to vote.]
ADDED: Time to release the Hillary?
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173 comments:
What did you expect?
It tells you how disappointing the others are.
I would not be surprised to see Michelle make try.
Why do you think Hillary would have a better chance against Biden? Isn't she a little shop-worn? I think Hillary wouldn't do much better than Warren in this poll.
Two white guys are more than 50%? We need a National Conversation about the sexism of Democratic voters.
Not all registered voters, but 1,536 registered voters. Which has no meaning whatsoever as to the popularity of anyone.
Hard to beat the name recognition of someone who's been vice president for 8 years. I'd be surprised if the average registered voter could name any of the candidates outside Biden, Sanders, Warren, Beto and Harris at this point.
That should read 'registered voters willing to participate in polls'.
Hillary would have zero chance. I doubt she could even win the primary.
Time to release the Hillary?
Oh, yeah. By all means.
Biden it is. He now gets to take the fire from all sides.
Biden will sweep Baladanny County in Pennsylvania. (Baladanny means Allegheny in Joe-speak. Guy needs to be put on pure oxygen 15 minutes ahead of time as part of his prep for a speech or remarks). Baladanny sounds like it could be an Irish county.
Hillary! Michelle! Oprah! Only more vagina can save the Democrats now!
Time to release the Hillary?
No. She still has all the problems she had in 2008 & 2016, and what's going to come out from the various investigations into spying on the Trump campaign aren't going to make her look any better between now & 2020.
Biden is probably the best shot the Dems have. God Ah-mi-tee, what a sad commentary that is, but it's the troof!
Michael K said...
It tells you how disappointing the others are.
I would not be surprised to see Michelle make try.
That would be awkward.
First question from Trump: "What did you know about your husband spying on me?"
Achilles: "First question from Trump: "What did you know about your husband spying on me?"
How can that be worse than Biden who was literally in the room for the discussions?
You got Biden, the establishment candidate. You got Bernie, the socialist. The race is for #3. Then lefty Dems need to choose: gang up against Slow Joe, or have him divide and conquer?
One thing we know for sure: no amount of lying, about anything at all, disqualifies Joe in the eyes of regular Dems. Useful to remember when they and their LLR fellow travelers go after Trump.
Let's go back to the heady lands of 2015. On Feb 23rd, 2015, Scott Walker was winning the Iowa caucuses by 10 points (!!). And Donald Trump? Nowhere. At the end of June he was still at 10% in Iowa. End of July? 31 percent. And yet... Rubio outkicked literally every poll when he placed with 23% in the final tally.
Polls ain't shit, and all Joey's done is paint a target on his back. He might actually see his son get indicted, assuming the man himself isn't jailed for his role in Spygate. Then what?
It doesn't matter who's leading. Trump is a lock for 2020, so the objective in the Democratic primaries is to finish second, and thereby get a leg up on the 2024 field.
If Michelle had a snowball's chance in hell, Disney would have used the original MCU Captain Marvel, Monica Rambeau, and cast a black actress to be the new leader of the Avengers. They know their market, and they passed on a black female lead.
And Michelle is not likeable, she's perenially indignant.
yes but brie Larson, is a bitter pill, now Tessa Thompson the head of new asghard isn't sweetness and light either,
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2019/05/the-week-in-pictures-close-down-the-barr-edition.php
Hillary Clinton schemes and runs for office. That is just who she is and what she does. Unlike other Presidential losers, she is on TV, making speeches, writing books, etc. Even now, after her failures, she could get big donors because, well its Hillary and if she does pull it off she knows how to settle scores with those who did not play ball.
Whether she can win a primary is another story.
Biden needs to sniff a few more hairs to even the score. Inequality!
Don't read polls. Don't ever read polls.
Blogger mockturtle said...
Hillary would have zero chance. I doubt she could even win the primary.
She wouldn't have won the last primary, either, without the super delegates.
Time to release the Hillary?
No. It's time to release ..
The Kraken!
Recognize the movie?
Hillary is scarier.
Well.....look at the choices. Biden or a bunch of lunatic socialists. Talk about being offered the best shit sandwich on the menu. Still a shit sandwich but HEY...it is the best one!
Drago said...
Achilles: "First question from Trump: "What did you know about your husband spying on me?"
How can that be worse than Biden who was literally in the room for the discussions?
No disagreement here. I hope Biden wins the nomination. He is Hillary 2.0.
Massive obvious corruption. His children working for Ukraine and China and his obvious intercession on their behalf will sink him by itself.
He is slurring because he has had 2 brain surgeries and age rather than being a drunk like Hillary. It will have the same effect.
And he will be answering the obvious question you brought up: "What did you know and when did you know it."
I would love to see Hillary run and lose again.
I would hate to see Hillary run and win.
Which is more likely?
more like the necroships of thanos invasion fleet,
http://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/boko-haram-seizes-military-base-in-ne-nigeria-sources/
what will bukhari do now, after the 3 million dollar ransom
trying to get in on the action:
https://legalinsurrection.com/2019/05/north-korea-fires-short-range-missiles-toward-ocean/
Trump is NOT a lock, not as close as 2016 was, with the incentive for ballot harvesting and illegal voting that the Demos have. If the right gets cocky and complacent, Trump will lose
Althouse;
Just like many Trump voters say that they knew that their candidate was a cad and liar and a lout and an egomaniac, but voted for him anyway because he could win an electoral majority, I expect that a lot of potential Biden voters feel much the same about their guy. They aren’t choosing a pastor. They just want to beat the other side.
The Trump calculus was to excite a base of less educated fearful working class whites. The Biden calculus will be to excite his own base of former Obama voters.
It's still early for "Hillary is the only one who can bring this fractious party together!" but it is most surely coming.
we shall see how he actually performs in the primaries, 'the beatings will continue, till morale improves' for eight months, sheesh,
kind of near beer:
https://libertyunyielding.com/2019/05/04/rashida-tlaibs-father-says-she-lied-big-time-to-get-elected-in-resurfaced-newspaper-article/
Hillary? What the hell? Nobody even wants to go to the Bill and Hillary show. Both of them are non-factors in the affairs of this country at the present time.
Yes. Biden. Go with him.
Let's see what the Big Money boys decide.
What kind of person answers the phone when a pollster calls? A retard dipshit who'd vote for Biden, that's who.
Blogger AllenS said...
Hillary? What the hell? Nobody even wants to go to the Bill and Hillary show. Both of them are non-factors in the affairs of this country at the present time.
You’re right of course. Except that villainizing “Hillary” and “Obama” is the main part of the business plan for the Limbaugh/Hannity alt-right media machines. Catnip for TrumpWorld.
> Trump is NOT a lock, not as close as 2016 was
Agree. And Biden is massively weird, but managed to keep getting elected. I wrote 2016 off as entertainment -- although I'd never vote to Hillary -- but Trump has been very good as president. If Biden is the nominee, I'm really curious as to how Trump will handle him. I expect Trump's sense of humor and self confidence will be a big help if Biden tries a Ryan repeat.
Imagine a debate between Biden and Trump.
Biden is sensitive on the topic of his intellect. Trump has probably never given a moment's thought to his intellect. Not because Trump is a genius, but because he doesn't care about it. It is not a metric that he uses to judge himself.
Again, and as always, these polls are designed to shape public perception.
That is why Hillary was 10+ points ahead a mere 7-10 days before the 2016 election.
The news, all of it, is editorializing by Pravda and Izvestia.
Only less entertaining.
tcrosse said...
Let's see what the Big Money boys decide.
My guess is none of the above.
The Trump calculus was to excite a base of less educated fearful working class whites. The Biden calculus will be to excite his own base of former Obama voters.:
OK, Chuckles,
It's time to unzip and put it on the table.
I have three graduate degrees, including a Ph.D. from a major R1 university.
How about you, Pencil Dick?
"It's still early for "Hillary is the only one who can bring this fractious party together!" but it is most surely coming."
The resistance has contained a trap all along. According to these people, she's the legitimate president, and so will be running for reelection. Biden sure won't stand before that. Only Bernie's people can buck it.
If not Hillary, then who is the Clinton surrogate? McAulliffe said he's out. These people aren't leaving money on the table - if there's no stand-in then that means Hillary is in.
If not Hillary, then who is the Clinton surrogate?
Biden makes a fine slurrogate
Some people voted for Trump. Many voted against Hillary.
Against Hillary voters have not changed their minds. Maybe a few pro Trump voters have.
Many generally pro Dem who voted for Hillary would vote for Trump next time. Some might lie to their friends about it. Why rock the boat when things are actually going well?
All the complaints about Trump are pretty stupid, in the real world.
Biden is scandal-free compared to corrupt unindicted felon Private SErver Hillary.
Chuck: "The Trump calculus was to excite a base of less educated fearful working class whites"
LOL. Trump only won because he appealed to people who voted Obama.
Please step away from political analysis. Your hatred of Trump has clouded your ability to reason.
You sound just like those Remainers who dismiss Brexiteers as being ignorant and easily misled. Just like the Democrats who claimed women voted for Trunp because their husbands made them.
Why do you smell like a Democrat, Chuck?
Has Trump mentioned Biden/Ukraine yet, or is he saving it for later?
The questions are weird: "Some people had the chance to vote in the 2016 presidential election. Others did not.Who did you vote for in the 2016 presidential election on November 8, 2006?"
A "chance"?
Chuck (D) "Limbaugh..Hannity..alt-right"
One of these things is not like the others.
One of these these things just doesnt belong.
I could totally see Biden as Hillary!'s snowplow. Biden emerges as the prohibitive leftie favorite then manufactures some thing- a Biden soul search, whatever, leaving a void to be filled with pantsuits and cankles.
The Trump calculus was to excite a base of less educated fearful working class whites. The Biden calculus will be to excite his own base of former Obama voters.
Chuck represents a tiny fraction of the GOPe base. Patterico has admitted that 85% of his readers left him since his TDS took over and most of his present readers "hate me."
Then there was this post on Ricochet by a supposed "conservative" pundit.
Ricochet had lots of TDS. Enough that I quit. There are 86 comments. Find one that agrees with her ?
Here is a typical one. I guess Mona thinks Scooter Libby had it coming.
What a horrible, disgusting article, on Trump, yet again from Mona Charen.
Got to love being insulted on the Main Page and being paying for it.
I met Mona Charon on an NRO cruise. Chuck, you are as close to being alone as anyone I know.
God, I hope Hillary joins the fray.
they assume a 31 27 r d, with 42% moderate, they have an over representation of independents, those are just two flags, with the poll,
"Just like many Trump voters say that they knew that their candidate was a-"
Trump is a fighter. That's why we overlooked his imperfections. That's how poor your Cuck Leadership was. If your people weren't such treacherous weasels, we would not have need to turn to Trump. Trump iz a total repudiation of your Failure Theater. YOU are responsible for putting him in office.
So thank you.
Biden has been in DC since 1973. FOURTY FIVE years! Trump will have a field day branding Biden as the Establishment Candidate.
So 4 more years Chuck. Let me know if you need advice on picking out the right shotgun for your mouth.
Talk about missing the big picture; this is a near total indictment of the progressive left.
Clinton, Franken, revisited.
the sexism of Democratic voters
Sexism and diversity.
"Not all registered voters, but 1,536 registered voters. Which has no meaning whatsoever as to the popularity of anyone."
Sorry for the ambiguity.
"About how many people do you think are caught trying to enter through the southern border each year?"
16% said under 10,000. Only 12% said over 500,000.
"Do you find the current field of Democratic party candidates for president to be impressive or underwhelming?"
59% are underwhelmed.
10 people said they've never heard of the U.S. Military. 14 said they've never heard of the FBI.
I'm curious why they don't include Howard Schultz?
What this tells me is that the Democrat Party leadership, the DNC, and most of the Democrat candidates are severely and vastly out of touch with the opinions and preferences of rank and file Democrats.
Hillary is lurking, waiting for just the right moment to jump back in. Based on 2016 though I expect her to misread the situation and timing.
You know what would be really fun in 2020? If Democrats in CA and a few other states that Trump isn't going to win anyway are successful in keeping Trump off the presidential ballot like they're trying to do. CA could conceivably do it not by the release your income taxes or else but by making the presidential race part of their jungle primary. But then they'd be stuck with a Democrat who might not be the national parties choice...
Imagine Trump winning the electoral college with the same states while not being on the ballot in some states, like Lincoln in 1860. The wailing and gnashing of teeth would be stupendous.
Also, I suspect such actions would motivate a crapload of people who don't normally vote to get off their derrieres and vote straight Republican tickets in other states.
I suspect the show your income tax or else will be shot down by the SC after the ninth circus finds nothing wrong with it. Adding the presidential race to the jungle primary, OTOH, I can't see a Constitutional bar to. Just that CA's electoral vote not going for either national party candidate makes it more likely the election goes to the house.
Ann Althouse said...
Sorry for the ambiguity.
All polls are based on ambiguity.
Blogger rehajm said...
I'm curious why they don't include Howard Schultz?
--
Who? Kinda seems like he's been de-platformed.
Gee..I thought Hil was at death's door in 2016.
Science!
The "base" of both parties are not on the fringes, but up the middle.
The Democrats do not have a Trump, so they want someone who they at least associate with the establishment governments they knew in past ages.
Do you think Hillary is healthier now than she was 2016, Walter?
It's too early to open the kennel door and let Hillary out and into the race. But she's sorta like the greyhound perpetually chasing that rabbit around the track and never quite catching it. Yes America Hillary is Nacho Presidente Today.
But let's suppose she throws her pantsuit in the ring and runs again. The Donald could ask her, "Why did your campaign pay for that phony dossier last time around?" That's for starters, and if Bill Barr and Inspector Horwitz do their work correctly, The Donald will be able to ask some questijavascript:void(0)ons about a lot of other dirty tricks.
I'm pretty sure Hillary is waiting for the initial round of bloodletting this summer. Wait for a few more people to drop out. Let's get back under 20 or so so that she can have some of the spotlight.
If Cali has a requirement that presidential candidates must expose their tax returns, this would be seen as a naked political move by everyone, including the Democrats. This would invite retaliation by pro-Trump states. Any one want to look at Biden's college transcripts? This invites tit-for-tat, and I suppose the Supreme Court would put a stop to it.
Biden received 44% in HORSE1A. In HORSE1, which included Hillary and Bloomberg, he got 34%, Hillary 6%, and Bloomberg 2%.
You need to remember that Jack Kennedy ran on a platform of economy in government, eliminating "waste, fraud, and mismanagement" and upgrading the national defenses - particularly by fixing "the missile gap" that wasn't.
That's the best they've got? That's the best they've got. A mendacious, handsy old white guy. So. Very. Woke.
Amadeus 48 said...
Why do you think Hillary would have a better chance against Biden? Isn't she a little shop-worn? I think Hillary wouldn't do much better than Warren in this poll.
Hillary is not just past her freshness date, she's past her freshness century.
A good rule of thumb is to ignore all polling until after Christmas. The majority of Americans aren't paying attention to this sh!t.
Oso Negro said...
Hillary! Michelle! Oprah! Only more vagina can save the Democrats now!
Well, they can try to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
Apparently AA and most of commentariat do not agree with me on this, but: Polls for the Dem nomination don't matter (as they did in the past) because no candidate will have a first ballot majority. So what will determine the nominee is not who has the most votes or second most votes or etc on the first ballot, but which nominee (or non-nominee for that matter) can put together a coalition for a majority on the second (third, fourth....) ballot. (Reason that no one will have a first ballot victory, for those who have missed this point: Dems eliminated the winner take all primaries, and there are 22 candidates. So Biden can win 44-14-10-etc in every state and still not have a first ballot majority.)
oopsy daisy said...
Well.....look at the choices. Biden or a bunch of lunatic socialists. Talk about being offered the best shit sandwich on the menu. Still a shit sandwich but HEY...it is the best one!
The best shit sandwich is the one with Grey Poopon.
For the Dems, it's either Biden or Bernie with Kammy as VP for either.
Bernie is a sure loser in the General. So, by default, that leaves Sleepy Joe. And all 21 other gnats will point their slingshots and air rifles at him.
No Lewis,
Most of us aren't.
But there were numerous armchair physicians predicting imminent demise.
Rachel Maddow "republican" Chuck: "You’re right of course. Except that villainizing “Hillary” and “Obama” is the main part of the business plan for the Limbaugh/Hannity alt-right media machines."
Chuck comes out swinging in strong, heartfelt defense of obama and Hillary.
Again.
And again and again and again.
As always.
Unexpectedly.
Because "True Conservative".
LOL
It's a very healthy thing politically that all the fake conservative, villainizing-republican LLR's have self-identified so that going into 2020 the jig is even more "up" than ever before.
You can tell the lefty billionaire's funding the fake conservatives, like LLR Chuck, are sweating bullets about what Barr is going to expose. They have launched themselves into Smear Mode Eleventy(!!).
It just keeps getting better and better.
Hey Chuck, did you see Glenn Greenwald and Jimmy Dore devastatingly attack your boy Li'l Brian Stelter from the left?
Hilarious!! All your lefty media heroes are forever discredited! As are you!
Congrats!
Fen: "Please step away from political analysis. Your hatred of Trump has clouded your ability to reason."
There is no actual evidence our LLR-lefty Chuck has ever had the ability to "Reason". In the same way there is no actual evidence LLR-lefty Chuck ever voted republican. At anytime at any level. Nor will there ever be.
There is at least 3 continuous years of LLR Chuck being in absolute perfect lock-step operational alignment with the far far far left, and passionately so.
Reasonable inferences may be drawn.
So, it'll get down to Biden and someone else after NH and Iowa. Wonder who.
No amount of polling will make Hillary likable.
Admitted Smear Merchant, Child-attacking Racist-posting LLR Chuck: "Just like many Trump voters say that they knew that their candidate was a cad and liar and a lout and an egomaniac, but voted for him anyway because he could win an electoral majority...."
Another "cut and paste" lefty-billionaire funded lie originating on the left for which there is no evidence that LLR Chuck presents as a fundamental truth.
Just another data point for why Meade called Chuck out as a non-good faith poster who was only here to proudly smear and lie.
LLR Chuck, as with the MSNBC/Antifa lineup, never disappoints.
Unfortunately for Chuck, there are only so many paid positions as Fake "True Conservatives" that the lefty billionaires will fund, so Chuck will have to labor on as a mere foot soldier on Team Left.
Perhaps a crumb or two could be thrown his way for his diligence in advancing lefty talking points?
You can just feel the panic amongst the lefties like LLR Chuck.
Expect an deluge of brand new smears against Trump, his family and all his supporters as we see here with LLR Chuck today.
They know what's coming.....and it ain't gonna be good for Team Left.
Stiff upper lip Chuckie! You're gonna need it.
(perhaps we should all chip in for a Brian Stelter compilation of CNN's greatest Smear Hits which might tide Chuck over in the coming Exposure-palooza?)
BTW, how sweet was it when Barr when to school on LLR Chuck's favorite Dem scum Stolen Valor Hero Da Nang Dick Blumenthal?!!
It was Glor-I-Ous!!!!
I can just envision Chuck watching it and then curling up in a ball in the corner crying silent tears while sucking his thumb and clinging desperately to his Maddow Blowup doll!
Fantastic!
The Democrats are not going to succeed in keeping Trump off the ballot anywhere. The Constitution sets out the qualifications to be eligible to serve as President, and no state can add to those requirements. This is not a close call.
I still say Trump is a lock for 2020. It is very hard to defeat an incumbent President. Johnson, Carter and Bush Sr. are the only post-WWII Presidents not reelected.
Carter is easy to explain: The 1980 economy was terrible and Carter was ineffective in dealing with the Iran hostage crisis. Johnson was so unpopular within his own party due to the Vietnam War that he stood a good chance of losing in the primaries, and even if he won them, the deep divisions among Democratsin meant that a lot of their usual voters would sit out the general election. Bush Senior had a bad economy, he'd broken the "No New Taxes" pledge, and after 12 years of Republican Presidents, people were ready for a change.
Trump has no problems comparable to those of Johnson, Carter or Bush Sr. He will have a hysterical media heavily in favor of his opponent, but that didn't stop Reagan or Bush Jr. from winning a second term. Twitter is not representative of those who actually vote.
Gee..I thought Hil was at death's door in 2016.
Science!
Hillary 2020: I'm Still Alive!
I wonder if Biden's many many many many illicit relationships with China/Ukraine/Others?, with proceeds being routed to his cocaine-addled Navy Reserve-kicked-out sister-in-law-affair screwing moron son Hunter, is why these polls are being "generated" to make Biden feel better about his many public creepy sexual practices?
After all, we know that LLR Chuck-approved FusionGPS and other democrat oppo-research Putin collaborators are tied into many foreign govts and agents who help to smear and frame republicans, just like LLR Chuck, and are paid handsomely to then pay "journalists" to carry pre-written stories.
Lots and lots of pre-written stories...so probably lots and lots of fake polls which titillate the more moronic of observers, like Chuck.
I'll bet we wouldn't have to dig deep to find that out for sure.
A visual simulation of the first Democratic Party presidential debate at this link
"Carter is easy to explain: The 1980 economy was terrible and Carter was ineffective in dealing with the Iran hostage crisis."
Uh oh.
LLR Chuck is NOT going to like that criticism of Jimmy Carter.
At. All.
Tread carefully.....
Blogger RK said...What kind of person answers the phone when a pollster calls? A retard dipshit who'd vote for Biden, that's who.
--
Has anyone seen a recognition of this by pollsters or MSM?
Especially in the environment wherein the wearing of a MAGA hat can be deemed worthy of punishment.
The top 3 in this poll are over 70. The only declared Republican challenger, Weld, is over 70. Release the Hillary? What's with America with all these old politicians dominating?
The left has never been so unhinged and it demonstrates daily that they cannot be trusted. Do not turn your back on a leftist. They are not well.
Unbelievable:
"Watch: American liberals occupy Venezuelan embassy, scream at anti-Maduro Venezuelans."
""White saviors" screeching at Venezuelans that they must accept authoritarian rule."
https://www.theblaze.com/news/codepink-venezuela-white-savior-embassy
Is Hillary Kraken?
Who is Olympian then?
I'd be surprised if the average registered voter could name any of the candidates outside Biden, Sanders, Warren, Beto and Harris at this point.
I'd be surprised if the average registered voter could name any of the candidates.
If Michelle had a snowball's chance in hell, Disney would have used the original MCU Captain Marvel, Monica Rambeau, and cast a black actress to be the new leader of the Avengers. They know their market, and they passed on a black female lead.
Not that it matters, but Monica was *not* the original MCU Captain Marvel, that was a Kree man named "Mar-Vel", who was sent off into the beyond in the graphic novel The Death Of Captain Marvel by Jim Starlin, creator of Thanos. (It was cancer, and even Reed Richards couldn't do anything about it.)
Hillary and Biden each have two losses under their belts, the ultimate match-up!
"Rumble in the Jungle – Thrilla in Manila – Zaire!"
(I love that sniveling side character from the show Billions who used to work for the SEC. He cracks me up!)
Per bagoh20's link:
"The Venezuelan embassy in D.C. is being occupied by liberal American protesters who are refusing to leave, and are shouting at demonstrators from Venezuela about what's best for them.
Activists, led by Code Pink's Medea Benjamin, took over the Venezuelan embassy last month..."
Medea Benjamin. Named for a woman who killed her own children to spite her ex-husband. What are people thinking? She looks like a typical feminista harridan.
"Bush Senior had a bad economy, he'd broken the "No New Taxes" pledge, and after 12 years of Republican Presidents, people were ready for a change." You forgot the most important part- Ross Perot split off Republican voters. Clinton won in 1992 with 43% of the popular vote.
Shes a trust fund baby who changed her name to medea from susan.
Blogger rehajm said...
I'm curious why they don't include Howard Schultz?
He's running as an Independent. The media don't like Independents as they tend to muddy the ideological waters.
She was sds at tufts at the time.
What's is that Kipling line:
https://www.discoverthenetworks.org/individuals/medea-benjamin/
You mean, 'The female of the species is deadlier than the male"?
I bet the Code Pink protesters are well fed.
Re the current clown-car of zanies, mountebanks and would-be tyrants running for president, I read a comment on Instapundit a couple of days ago that some of you may have read, too, but it sums up the candidates nicely.
"Kamala Harris owns a gun, but doesn't want you to.
"Bernie Sanders is a millionaire, but doesn't want you to be.
"AOC travels in airplanes but doesn't want you to.
"Hmmm . . . I think I'me seeing a pattern here."
The patters is a sort of antinominianism, or seen another way, that the State-cult's priesthood has privileges the "unsaved" do not have. Just shut up and obey your betters, deplorables.
"I still say Trump is a lock for 2020."
I still say Trump will be locked up by 2020. Fixed it for you.
AOC is just, like, living her life.
Meanwhile: Gillibrand Plays Beer Pong In Ad
The media don't like Independents as they tend to muddy the ideological waters.
They don’t like independents? That would suggest they allow their personal opinions to influence their reporting!!
Beer pong? One upping Liz in her kitchen...
It must be one upped with a keg stand, then a funnel. Is the trip to home depot for the funnel and tubing a legit campaign expense?
I heard Biden on the radio giving a speech in PA. And I wondered if he has had a min-stroke or was he just slightly drunk. He was almost incoherent with slurring half-sentences and stream of consciousness type of diatribe. It is apparent to me that he is too old and slow and he will not have the stamina to go the distance against the indefatigable Trump. But I do hope that Biden is the nominee since I would love to see Trump insult him and show his disdain for Biden. I have not gotten over the way Biden treated Paul Ryan during their “debate”, he was rude and condescending, laughing at Ryan who behaved like a gentleman. And Biden’s MALARKEY comment is forever seared on my brain. Cannot wait for Trump to dismantle this has-been phony.
"Hillary 2020: I'm Still Alive!"
Hillary 2020: Wired Together
These numbers make no sense for Biden unless you attribute them to two things:
1. Democrats shellshocked over Trump's election and the wet fart of the Mueller Report are desperate for their Obama-binkie and Biden's the closest thing to it.
2. White Democrats angry/afraid of the rise of identity politics are turning to someone they feel least contaminated by it.
Mike
Thanks for linking to the actual poll. Most bloggers link to news articles describing a poll, without any link to the actual results.
Fun observations:
- According to this poll, more people voted for Donald Trump than for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
- Of those Democrats who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, only 5% would vote for her in the primary this time.
- If they add Hillary Clinton to the list of candidates, more respondents choose Bernie Sanders than if Hillary Clinton is omitted.
- 70% of Bernie Sanders' support is from the wealthier income category.
- Only 10% of Beto O'Rourke's support is from the same wealthier income category.
Most insane question:
- "OBS0401 Do you think the special counsel has found actual evidence of President Trump obstructing justice during the investigation of Russia's interference into the 2016 election, or did the special counsel not find any evidence of such collusion?"
Wow. So... obstruction is collusion?
Most insane result:
- 56% of Democrats think that "the special counsel has found actual evidence of Trump campaign officials colluding with the Russians".
ADDED: Time to release the Hillary?
or maybe the stake has been pounded thru her stone cold heart?
(ok -- there goes our Twitter acc't)
Is she Grizabella, in the Dem's 'herd of Cats'??
Hillary 2020: It's Still H>er Turn, Goddammit!
MBungee--
A third option: Most Democrats think Biden has the best chance to beat Trump, and that's all they care about.
Evidence: In this poll, 51% of Democrats say Biden has the best chance to beat Trump, and 41% of Democrats say they care more about nominating a candidate who can beat Trump than they do about nominating a candidate they agree with on the issues. (Questions DEMPRES0305 and DEMPRES0306)
Biden looks the part. That’s the simplest heuristic when the field gets crowded. It’s how I knew it would be Kerry back in the day.
Klobuchar will come out swinging in Milwaukee on the 8th.
"Most Democrats think Biden has the best chance to beat Trump, and that's all they care about."
Which would be option #3, Democrats are stupid. Electability is always a sucker's game. It's like betting NOT on the horse you think will win the Kentucky Derby but on the horse you think everybody else thinks will win.
And what exactly is so electable about a 76-year-old gaffe machine with a long political history of statements and votes that don't conform to modern Democratic orthodoxy and who spent from mid-2009 to mid-2016 with Gallup approval numbers BELOW 50%?
Mike
I can't get anyone to engage on this. But what is wrong with this prediction? Biden wins 40% of delegates in primaries, and Klobuchar wins 2%; Klobuchar is the nomineee.
Emperor has no clothes would be an improvement for all of them, since they all wear dirty clothes.
Nobody dare wash those in public.
Trump will have no compunction.
In 2007 I was surprised, calling supposed republicans in my precinct, that the only candidate they'd heard of was McCain. Oh, and one for Romney.
Most seemed to think McCain would be a swell candidate.
sanity is not a prerequisite,
https://www.weaselzippers.us/419765-stacey-abrams-again-claims-she-won-georgia-governors-race-im-not-a-good-sport/
What's with America with all these old politicians dominating?
Have you had a look at the young ones ? Swallwell ?
"I can't get anyone to engage on this. But what is wrong with this prediction? Biden wins 40% of delegates in primaries, and Klobuchar wins 2%; Klobuchar is the nomineee."
40% of the delegates isn't enough to win tje nomination on the first ballet. Once the delegates are unattached after that, it's anyone's game.
Thanks Chris Lopes. The only commenter that seems to get my point. And it doesn't have to be Klobuchar, it could be Stacy Abrams, or Sherrod Brown, or some other person who is not even a declared candidate.
This is still 2019, right?
Wake me up in 8 months.
We don't need any stinking polls - we can just ask Ritmo who he likes.
These numbers make no sense for Biden unless you attribute them to two things:
1. Democrats shellshocked over Trump's election and the wet fart of the Mueller Report are desperate for their Obama-binkie and Biden's the closest thing to it.
2. White Democrats angry/afraid of the rise of identity politics are turning to someone they feel least contaminated by it.
Actually, Biden's numbers are far better among nonwhite Democrats. This makes sense, because white Democrats are more radical on racial matters than their nonwhite counterparts.
https://mobile.twitter.com/mtracey/status/1123208761978564609
A third option: Most Democrats think Biden has the best chance to beat Trump, and that's all they care about.
That is a good point.
The individual candidate's relative degree of radicalness is overstated. A Democrat POTUS will staff the administration with a lot of far left wingers and a lot of party hacks. The difference between who Biden would choose and who Sanders would close is very small.
seeing as he hired Symone sanders, one of Bernie's minions and anita 'mao loving' dunn, it's not that surprising,
walter said: "Klobuchar will come out swinging in Milwaukee on the 8th."
Against her aides or against the field?
MBunge-
Preaching to the choir.
I don't think Biden is remotely electable -- neither do most Republicans or Independents in the linked poll. It's Democrats who are convinced he's electable, for some reason.
Be careful what you wish for....
Remember that the D's were hoping for Trump as the nominee, since he had no chance at all.
Joe B could out Trump trump... lots of insults and one liners. And every one will be praised 24x7 as if it was the most witty and insightful thing ever said.
Just about every network and every newspaper in America will do everything they can to drag Joe across the finish line.
If only politics were as honest as stewards at Churchill Downs.
Mark - yeah, the second or third best horse won because the best horse got spooked by the crowd noise and 'interfered' with the fourth and fifth best horse, who were not going to win anyway .....
so your honest stewards decided that a popular trainer and a popular jockey, whose horse did not come in first, should win, and that a less popular trainer and a less popular jockey, whose horse did come in first, should lose.....
And horse racing continues to follow the trajectory of professional boxing down and down until nobody honest cares anymore because we are tired of being played for saps.
Hillary was the best candidate too. That's why it was OK to deny Sanders. And that's why she should be president today.
Not.
I think Mayor Pete and Swallowswell would be the ideal combination.
They seem made for each other.
Joe Biden ex-VP. "The triumph of hope over experience"
John Henry
I really loved that Biden came out and said "I am not asking ex-president Obama to endorse me" (Quoting from memory)
And the next day expresident Obama said something like "Well, I was not planning to endorse him anyway."
John Henry
If the plan is to "release the Hillary" it won't be done until the convention in 2020. Running nearly 2 dozen candidates is a decent strategy to split the delegate counts such that the convention is either decided by superdelegates or brokered. Assuming no candidate reaches into the 40% range, it's quite possible no declared candidacy may be acceptable to a majority of the convention and then Hillary can swoop in as the unity candidate and only has to endure a campaign season of just over 100 days with no attacks coming from her left in the primary.
Of course this strategy could also be used by the DNC to select any other candidate it wanted without subjecting them to a primary fight and to bypass their voters. So long as the eventual choice is acceptable to the Democrat base, my bet is their voters would forgive the total nullification of the primaries in service of defeating Trump.
I really loved that Biden came out and said "I am not asking ex-president Obama to endorse me" (Quoting from memory)
Worse than that! He said he asked Obama not to endorse him, as it would seem like unfair advantage. LOL!
Even if the 2020 election cycle is only a trial run for many of the Democratic candidates on the road to 2024, I doubt that four years is going to make that much difference regarding Kamala Harris or Amy Klobuchar. Why aren't there stronger women running or in the pipe line to run? Why are those women who have declared their candidacies making such a poor showing now, considering that the Democratic Party claims to be so progressive and allegedly so wanted a woman president?
IMO, what is happening is that any woman running for the highest office is going to be held to a higher standard of accomplishment than their male counterparts. Biden, Obama, B. Clinton etc., got away with having no experience except in elected office. Same is true for Sanders. Hillary was touted for being the most qualified due to her political experience.
But now that we've seen what a non-politician can accomplish in the White House, I think having only a political resume is not as prestigious. All this means that I believe eventually a Republican woman with business experience will be the first woman President. The Democrats are setting themselves up for failure because of their antipathy towards business success, corporations, and the 1%. Their insistence on seeing tax returns means no one with great achievements in the corporate world will want to run and go through the election process. No one wants their businesses gone over with a magnifying glass; there are too many variables and places where mistakes may have been made or lines crossed.
The Democratic Party is holding back progress rather than advancing any progressive agenda and the proof of my theory are the polling results which give Biden the overwhelming lead. He's the most status quo figure, that's why he is ahead. No one is clear about a path forward.
replying to cyrus83. You are right. But it is important to notice that super-delegates votes will not count in the first ballot of the Democratic comvention in 2020. So their opinions will only matter when we've moved into the second-third-etc ballots. And the super delegates, combined with a coalition of delegates pledged to a particular set of candidates , could do anything, including (though I think it's unlikely) nominating Hillary.
But this is why I'm so puzzled about why everyone (almost everyone in the AA universe, but also in the mainstream media, 538, etc) is so concentrated on the polls of relative support of announced candidates.
The problem with releasing The Hillary now is that the more people see of her, the less they like her.
She has to wait until the very last minute, and arrive on a cloud, accompanied by a celestial choir, and it is hoped, with fake Greek columns in the background. Then perhaps the despondent and demoralized Dims, baffled and disgusted with the spectacle of Creepy/Sleepy Joe Bygone Biden, Kameltoe "Towlette" Harris, Peter Butt-a-Gogo, and (it is rumored) Red Bill DiBlasio competing to promise the most free stuff while trying to talk smack about Galactic Troll-master Trump, will embrace the debilitated apparition as a savior, with not enough time for buyer's remorse to set in.
It will be sweet to watch her lose again.
Hillary has to be released late if at all. Her health wasn’t good enough for a full campaign last tme. Unless you believed pneumonia comes and goes in an afternoon...
I am aware the superdelegates can't cast a deciding vote in the first round, but they will come into play unless one candidate wins a majority in the primaries, which with proportional allocation and so many candidates may well not happen. Even with Biden up by so much in this poll, if he or anyone else comes in at 44% of the delegates, they'll be short by about 230 from the nomination. Once the superdelegates come back in, they'd be about 610 votes from victory.
If nobody reaches at least 40% of the delegates available in the primaries, then even all the superdelegates combined are not enough to push the candidate with the most delegates over the top without the help of delegates originally pledged to other candidates.
The Dems are hoping to revitalize their party by a rough and tumble, no holds barred primary in which issues are debated. But unfortunately the channel is set on the co-ed peewee league and those little sweeties aren't going to do rough and tumble. Would Mayor Pete be mean to Beto? Now, Amy and Liz might get down to hair-pulling but that wouldn't be attractive - their voices shrill, their faces red and distorted, personalities exchanged. And like a gas leak, Bernie Three House and Slow Joe will put whole families, whole blocks to sleep. And meanwhile an occasional swirl in the current shows where the Hildebeast swims along below the surface, pulling down the leading Dem candidate of the week with oppo research, leaked to the sniggering Republicans circle-dancing in The Republican Pounce. American life can be so mean - we are all, and I mean all, looking forward to scenes in which a mighty pol slips on a banana, placed there by fellow party members. "The American people should know and so I reluctantly reveal..." "'Reluctantly', did you hear that? Oh take away the popcorn, if I laugh any more, I'll choke." Yeah, we all, and I mean ALL, know they are going to 'reluctantly' place that banana peel. And so the ratings stay up, we want to see it. But the show is being watched in the spirit of late-night viewing of B-movies. (So wrong.)
"I am not asking ex-president Obama to endorse me"
I am not asking Charlize Theron to sleep with me, either.
Just like many Trump voters say that they knew that their candidate was a cad... potential Biden voters feel much the same about their guy.
The Trump calculus was to excite a base of less educated fearful working class whites. The Biden calculus will be to excite his own base of former Obama voters.
Why would you replay the 2016 election? Nothing is the same. Trump is now the sitting President of the United States. Not a NYC business man. 2016 the US was 8 years into the slowest economic recovery since the Depression. Obama was busy defining a "new normal". Today we are looking at the best economy in at least a generation. Economic results not a single economist predicted, and all scoffed at the claims made by President Trump. Lots of other improvements on domestic and international affairs.
Biden is not Clinton's wife. Clinton's wife is terrible candidate. The more people see her, the less they like her. In this metric, Biden has some of that too. People are OK with the idea of Biden, but face to face, he presents way different than what they expected. And, both of them have zero accomplishments for all of their supposed experience.
Deciding factors of the 2020 election are at least 15 months from being identified.
Supposedly, Obama has offered mechanistic/infrastructure support to a Biden run.
Perhaps the money follows.
Pelosi is on record today as stating that Trump might contest a narrow Democratic victory.
I think she is right.
Bear with me.
In 2018, the Dems gained a large number of seats by "vote harvesting" Look it up if you don't know what it means.
Suppose following election night, 2020, the dems do the same ting with the presidential election? They target key precincts in key states where they believe the votes "harvested" will give them 50%+1 of the state's votes.
Get ready for Florida x 10 or 20.
As concurs tend to concur with my experience here at the Althouse blog, well indeed then yes: The vast won't ever care to distinguish betwixt BBQ or Grilling or Smoking.
Smoking involves expanded metal. Go to home depo in a big city and ask for that. Ha.
My vast failure was kept to myself in my own way, yet available for future reference.
Frozen v. fresh.
Chicken drumettes.
No brine no nothing I said fuck it and put it on. Ate it all. Will continue to do so. Coop can stop by if he can smell it proper.
$20 smoker. $21 dollars in paint. $50 in fireplace rope seals, gaskets, caulk.
It's all right here. https://www.smokingmeatforums.com/threads/brinkmann-trailmaster-limited-edition.104190/page-21
It has been for quite some time.
CNN has Beto beating Trump by 10%
LOLOLOLOL
https://twitchy.com/brettt-3136/2019/05/02/new-cnn-poll-has-president-trump-being-pummeled-by-beto-orourke/
Mainstream democrats are desperate to find someone who isn’t a lunatic socialist. They think Biden May be it.
Notice how since Biden has come to the fore, #METOO is now a dead letter?
Now that the Ukrainian scandal involving Biden's son is about to break, you can say bye bye to Biden.
rwnutjob,
Why not, they had the Hildabeast aka Greedy Grandma, winning in an electoral vote landslide! (they liked the electoral college before they hated the electoral college)
That settles it! I'm voting for "Nearest Competitor".
All the voters who were too young to vote in 2016, but can vote in 2020. They are still on their parents teat so the net positive real-world effect of the past couple of years are completely lost on them.
"ADDED: Time to release the Hillary?"
RELEASE THE KRAKEN!!!!!!
I don't respond to polls. But if I did, I'd say Biden too. But I'm pulling the lever for Trump*.
*Barring some catastrophe.
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