Can that be right?
IN THE COMMENTS: Dave Begley said:
Meaningless and wrong. It is a state by state election. Not a national election.This is the terrible problem with poll-gazing. It's missing what you most need to know. Which of these Democratic candidates will be most able to get the people who could go either way in the states that can go either way. I'm one of those people, you know — in Wisconsin and capable of voting for either party's candidate.
Didn't we learn from the last election?
Posts
142 comments:
Can that be right?
According to a new CNN poll. Mileage may vary.
Presumably taken by people who watch CNN.
No.
Same mistake Hillary made: they think it is a national election rather than a state by state one. National numbers are irrelevant.
The last twenty years have taught us two things about polling:
1) They are heavily biased in favor of Democrats.
2) They mean next to nothing in predicting the actual outcome of elections.
You'll be better off betting on the Derby tomorrow. There are a lot of dark horses there too.
Can that be right?
---------
No. Maybe is was an office poll.
Though as a MA resident I take particular delight in the fact that Warren polls so poorly nationally.
I didn’t look at tabs but I’m buessing this poll isn’t of likely voters. That is a big factor, worth 5-10 points for Trump.
No. Next question.
Wait until Hillary announces. She will outpoll Trump by 95% to 5% like she always does.
Hillary polled +1,000,000,000 over Trump.
And they will in every poll except the election.
"Though as a MA resident I take particular delight in the fact that Warren polls so poorly nationally."
Polls poorly? She's almost neck and neck with Trump.
I have a theory which — were I a statistics student might turn into a research paper — states that the further away the election the more pollsters are into narrative-building. As the Election Day approaches, they shift to reality, herding with others so they can claim their last numbers as their credibility raters. Iow, polling is as corrupt as the media.
Anyone, and I mean anyone, with a D behind their name will get 47% of the vote and 270 electoral votes automatically.
The notion that Hillary was a bad candidate, and Bernie would have won is a fallacy, in my opinion.
The election philosophical, not candidate driven.
Free market commerce (capitalism) vs. socialism.
At the rate American universities are pumping out young, vibrant communists every year, I expect 2020 will be the last chance to bar the door.
This is less of a poll than it is wishful thinking and push polling by a noted fake news purveyor.
Take with an enormous grain of salt.
I find it both humorous and pathetic that the Lame Stream Media© finds Trump's approval ratings dropping after 24/7 365 negative reporting on him by them.
Shocker, that.
Meaningless and wrong. It is a state by state election. Not a national election.
Didn't we learn from the last election?
Very fake news.
If you like your murky political stats you can keep your murky political stats!
Presumably taken by people who watch CNN
Luckily, that's only couple hundred people.
Who knew 3% annual wage growth and a 3.6% unemployment rate would be so unpopular?
FiveThirtyEight has a fun piece on Which 2020 Candidates Could Still Have A Breakout Moment?.
Know who has an unusual logo and one weird idea? John Hickenlooper.
Yeah. It's early.
"Forget it, Jake. It's CNN."
Another "poll": https://electionbettingodds.com/
Whatever this site is, 24 hours before the 2016 election it had the odds for Trump winning at only 17%
Although it does make one wonder. "Hi, I'm taking a poll commissioned by CNN, and if the election were held today, would you vote for that racist, unstable Putin-puppet Trump or for one of these fine alternatives?"
Those photos you see at the bottom of the scroll on so many sites? The ones that ask you to wonder what yesteryear celebs look like now? Or old photos that will shock you today? Seven food that you should never eat?
Yea. It's called click bait. The only purpose is to draw eyes to the web site, to propagandize you.
CNN has Trump at 56% now. Perhaps their various pollsters should talk.
So does this mean that Beto has a 95% chance of winning?
Right now none of them have gone on record saying the things that they are going to have to say to appease the Twitter base that is going to alienate a lot of moderate voters who might like a different president, but are not nuts.
Can that be right?
No, dear. Take off your clothes and I'll mansplain later.
"Polls poorly? She's almost neck and neck with Trump."
Yep, Warren is first loser - and the only Democrat in this poll that doesn't best Trump.
Try as you might you cannot diminish how great that makes me feel. :-)
Anyone, and I mean anyone, with a D behind their name will get 47% of the vote and 270 electoral votes automatically.
Speaker of the House Pelosi said a warm glass of water would get elected if it had a D behind their name.
President 'Beto' O'Rourke. Say that again.
Darrell said...
CNN has Trump at 56% now. Perhaps their various pollsters should talk.
That's approval rate on the economy only. What used to be the driving factor in Presidential elections is now ignored.
O'Who? Isn't he already forgotten?
Polls poorly? She's almost neck and neck with Trump.
She's almost neck and neck with Trump in a poll that has every other Dem candidate beating Trump handily.
was Chewbacca left out of the polls?
Soft data. Very soft. I mean, very, very soft.
M Jordan said...
I didn’t look at tabs but I’m buessing this poll isn’t of likely voters
Oh BUT! thanx to Democratic Vote Harvesting®
ALL REGISTERED VOTERS ARE NOW VOTERS! and this includes both living and dead illegal aliens
If anyone knows anyone that voted for Trump in 2016, and is sincere about not voting for him in 2020, speak up.
"Can this be right?"
You mean, does this reflect what will happen in November 2020? Who knows? As the 2016 election showed, getting your statistical sample right is very difficult, and I suspect it gets harder year by year.
Stop and think of a few of issues of trying to get someone to respond to a call about a political poll:
-- Many, if not most, people, myself included, have simply given up on answering any phone call -- whether to a landline or a mobile device -- unless the caller ID is someone we know or care to talk to. When my wife and I moved from Colorado to Utah 5 years ago, we abandoned having a landline altogether because 90+% of the calls there were 'spam'. Now I would say at least 50% of the calls on our cell phones are spam as well. So who actually answers a random pollster phone call and agrees to respond? There's a lot of self-selection going on there.
-- The 'shy Trump voter' issue has been discussed at length, and I suspect it has gotten even worse over the past two years. Indeed, almost all of the political violence over the past two years has been directed at -- rather than caused by -- Trump supporters. I'm pretty unapologetic about the fact that (a) I voted for Trump in 2016 and (b) I plan to vote for him again next year -- but I don't talk about it to anyone because I don't want to put up with the crap that will come my way.
-- The various Democratic contenders haven't been subjected to the same non-stop attacks that Trump has. They are still in sort of a vague, pristine state, mostly reflecting the idealistic hopes of the Democratic bloc. The Dem primary in-fighting will likely do most of Trump's work for him. One of the reasons GWB won (barely) in 2000 was that the various GOP party leaders and deep-pocket donors pretty much settled on him early in the cycle to avoid repeating the 1996 loss by Bob Dole (I admire and respect Bob Dole, but he was a wretched candidate).
So, no, I have little reason to trust those polls. But, as Glenn Reynolds is wont to say, "Don't get cocky."
Now you understand why there are so many Democrats in the race.
I don't dismiss this poll as cavalierly as others, but it is early. If the economy stays strong, Trump has a chance. There is a relatively small number of undecided voters anymore. It's all about which side shows up to vote. Voter enthusiasm. Will the Trump voters who stayed home in the 2018 mid-terms come out for the big guy?
'Beto' O'Rourke just won Mexico. Perhaps he can set up alternate weeks and we'll be only half-screwed.
Bod promises unfettered illegal entrants.
I was just reading a couple of months ago how Trump’s whole family was going to be breaking rocks right now and we were going to be in a recession.
National Review asks, "Where Was All of This Skepticism about Beto Last Year?" Jim Geraghty writes:
Just once, I’d like to see some major mainstream journalism institution look at its past coverage and say something like . . .
Since the 2018 Texas Senate race ended, we’ve gotten to know Beto O’Rourke better and put simply, we chose to see what we wanted to see that year. He was glib, and we convinced ourselves it was charisma. He looked young, and we told ourselves he was the voice of a new generation. We found his skateboarding and guitar-playing cool when it was kind of silly and juvenile, and we persuaded ourselves that he was an accomplished leader when we now see he was a bumbling slacker who had married up and had his political ambitions carried along by his father-in-law’s wealth and connections. We hate Ted Cruz with the passion of a thousand suns going supernova, and because of that, we talked ourselves into believing that this guy was Lone Star Jesus. We recognize that we have a worsening problem with wish-casting and have checked into a twelve-step program.
I'm one of those people, you know — in Wisconsin and capable of voting for either party's candidate.
Then inform us. Tell us which Dems get your vote over Trump right now.
"I'm one of those people, you know"
Yes, we know. Even after the collusion hoax, the deep-state coup attempt, the disqualifying Biden lie, the Green New Deal, Medicare for All, record growth, etc. etc., Althouse is still "one of those people." Put a nice gay man on a cover, publish a "beautiful" picture of him playing a game with his Gramsciite father, promise more respect for women's bodies, and Dems have a shot at Althouse.
Yah CNN picks up Nate’s trick of headlining the polls what best fit their narrative. We’ll just ignore the bad one so nobody will see..
Funny how after the last debacle we’re supposed to still infer things CNN wants us to infer. It wasn’t that the polls were bad you see, they told us exactly what would happen and did happen. Except for that who wins part they all inferred.
Here's some 'numbers' for you:
Nonfarm payrolls increased a seasonally adjusted 263,000.
The jobless rate fell to 3.6%.
The government said last week GDP rose a surprisingly robust 3.2% in the first quarter.
I'm one of those people, you know — in Wisconsin and capable of voting for either party's candidate.
A woman. The one who seems to mean well gets the vote.
Trump is 51 percent in the polls... he is 56 percent on handling the economy (and that comes from CNN!!!)
Right now all the 2020 stuff is propaganda of the left.
If anyone knows anyone that voted for Trump in 2016, and is sincere about not voting for him in 2020, speak up.
Good question, but I don't think that will matter. I think there won't be much vote switching, or if there is it will cut both ways and cancel each other out. It will come down to which side has the most passion and gets out to vote. There wasn't much enthusiasm among Dems for Hillary.
Unfortunately, voting against a candidate is usually more of a motivating factor than voting for someone, and a lot of people are eager to vote against Trump. There's almost a religious fervor to do so.
Boy, I am glad that's a CNN poll. You know they get it right all the time, and they never lie. I think we can take this one to the bank. Beto-mania, baby. Shortly to be followed by Butti-mania. Bern-ie! Bern-ie! Bern-ie! Let's revive Joe-mentum! Elizabeth Warren--wild for granny!! Kamala: oo-lala!! Teebone for Booker! Vote for Amy--she won't pinch your butt!
To Ann Althouse and Dave Begley;
The RCP average of polling in Michigan - so critical to the 2016 Trump victory - shows much the same as this CNN poll. Two different polling groups, including the conservative-leaning Detroit News, did a series of head-to-head polls of various Democratic candidates versus Trump. And Trump trails in all of them. The Biden RCP polling average lead, for instance, was +10%.
Now you can say it is too early for such polling to be meaningful and I would have no answer for that. But the Althouse/Begley spin is that it is important to look at individual swing state polling and not national polling. So that’s what I did. And it doesn’t help pro-Trump spinners like Althouse. It’s just as bad or worse for Trump in Michigan according to the head-to-head polls.
And if you insist on election results over polling, I submit the 2018 midterm results in Michigan. Democrats took back the offices of Governor (from a Trump-endorsed Republican) and 2 of our 14 congressional seats from Trump-endorsed Republicans in what were previously safe Republican suburban districts.
So you wanted some individual state info? There you are.
You’re welcome.
It will come down to which side has the most passion and gets out to vote.
passion? ha!
thanx to Democratic Vote Harvesting® ALL REGISTERED VOTERS ARE NOW VOTERS!
How has governor whitmer worked out for them , again?
If this is indicative of the national mood what does it say about us voters? Economic prosperity ‘is boring’. Trump tweets mean things. Anyone but Trump. Free stuff. No airplanes or cow farts. They remind me of nana and pop pop. I feel good picking the black lady,
BWebster's comment accurately describes my experience as well
A woman. The one who seems to mean well gets the vote.
Danger, Will Robinson.
My current nemesis is "Suburban Republican Women." They generally feel guilty about voting Republican, and see open opposition to Trump as a way to safeguard social status. That's my stereotype of them, anyway.
I think Republicans/Conservatives are really deluding themselves if they think Trump is going to get elected, without a long tough fight. And the chances of winning are only 50/50. Bush-II, Mr. pander bear, Mr. War on Terror, Barely got re-elected in 2004 against a very weak candidate. Now, 15 years later, the electorate is much more liberal due to our importing millions of "immigrants".
Not only that the D's are committing vote fraud on a massive scale and the MSM is 100% on their side. It doesn't look good, and the R's had better get smart and energized.
The democratics are desperately attempting to kill off state's right voting and move to THE RUSSIAN system of vote counting. "popular vote"
All the D's need is a half-way decent candidate. Someone all the soccer Moms can delude themselves into thinking is "moderate". Of course, when we get the D's controlling all three branches in 2021, they'll get "buyers remorse" but the soccer Moms and RINO's don't think ahead.
Here's the actual poll report.
They weight for everything except political affiliation. Sample includes 93% registered voters, and by implication 7% unregistered voters. Margin of error for registered voters is 3.9%. Margin of error for Democratic-leaning registered voters is 5.9% (!).
I also looked at a few crosstabs: they have white non-college at 39-55% for O'Rourke vs Trump, and white college at 52-44%. Yet they show the total as 52-42% O'Rourke vs Trump. So in that match the total percentage for Trump is less than the average of the white vote for Trump? That doesn't make sense.
I see the same issue in the other crosstabs I looked at. I don't know what's going on, maybe they overweighted non-whites?
2020 will be brutal. There is a lot of anti-Trump passion, and Trump is a divider not a uniter.
Reagan's gift was that he was principled, genial, and persuasive. The left still hated him.
Trump pushes different buttons than Reagan.
Excellent and accurate predictive polling. Go with Beto. Please.
I thought I saw Chuck the other day, but it was only a giant burlap bag of shit. Easy mistake.
"....capable of voting for either party's candidate."
Except Biden,of course. You disqualified him. Or was that SOOOoooooo long ago?
The fact that "electability" is a question is the tell for the accuracy of this poll.
If the poll is accurate then anybody who gets nominated will beat Trump. So why worry about electability? If you don't worry about the candidates ability to beat Trump, then why poll the question?
I also don't think they asked different voter pools for each hypothetical race (it's hard enough to get people to answer the phone for one poll). Instead they present each matchup to each voter. So in reality they are simply asking the question, who is most likely to beat Trump.
Based on that frame, Beto is the candidate people are leaning towards being able to beat Trump. Note how he's also one of the ones least commented on by Trump? There hasn't been a negative frame set for Beto by Trump... yet.
General election polls before the field is set is navel gazing. Half the league is going to win the World Series before the first game is played. It sells clicks though. "This will be the year!"
A large percentage of the MSM's reporting amounts to "We're winning!" Polls like this, fundraising reports, interpretation of events like this week's Barr testimony, and the "generic opinion poll." They do this so much that they convince themselves that it's true and then, from out of nowhere, an election goes the wrong way.
Ann is a married white woman.
She will vote how her husband votes, polls show.
Don't bother worrying about such voters who promise they could go both ways... Focus on the independent voter who is not into gimmicks.
Biden might be the toughest to beat. All the stupid people will think he's "moderate" because he's been around for 45 years, and was Obama's VP. They don't understand his "moderate" positions in the past, weren't really moderate, AT THE TIME. Or were taken for the purposes of being elected.
One takeaway you could learn from this poll is that there is no need for any of the Dem candidates to moderate their stances, right? They can move even further leftwards to secure the nomination. They've got room against Trump.
Impeachment and Green New Deals all around!
Ann, based on these poll results what would you advise someone in the democratic field to do? Move left, right, or stay the course? What do they need to do to get your vote in the battleground state of Wisconsin?
Warren might want to do a Sister Soulja moment to garner more of the center. She needs to do it in a way that the left knows she's just playing politics though and she doesn't mean it.
I trust the polls, and I don't think the state-by-state view is any more favorable for Trump.
Objectively, Trump is doing a great job, but the media (including social media) have persuaded the people otherwise.
So get ready for more socialism, more identity politics, more corruption, and more hoaxes designed to intimidate anyone who dares to express a conservative view.
We are less than two years away from (permanent?) one-party rule.
I think Althouse' dilemma will be choosing between a woman and a gay.
Craig @ 10:04 - I think you might be right.
Real News Era: It's the economy, stupid.
Fake News Era: It's the media, stupid.
All MSM polls at this point in time are political weapons attempting to make believe Trump's support is much much lower than it really is in order to support the dems/LLR's impeachment tactics.
Utterly coordinated in "Journolist" fashion.
Period.
Looks like polls in 2016......
I stopped reading after ... According to a new CNN poll
Why would anyone take CNN seriously?
Methinks Althouse is just having fun in her impish sort if way.
CNN, and other media outlets, have to come up with something that more or less resembles news — or close up shop and go home. We won’t get our first inklings until the Iowa caucuses — NEXT FEBRUARY, PEOPLE! — who has the money, organizational skills, staff, work ethic, and ability to connect with voters to be in the lead, and even then you are only looking at Democrat voters, not the independent voters that all candidates need to win over to win the state in the general.
Made up facts, and made up news. Fake from top to bottom.
Chuck: But the Althouse/Begley spin is that it is important to look at individual swing state polling and not national polling. So that’s what I did. And it doesn’t help pro-Trump spinners like Althouse.
See, this is where your TDS trumps whatever good point you were making. Althouse simply has a different opinion than you and is looking at this from a different perspective, and yet you attack her as being deliberately dishonest.
Next time you whine to Althouse about how you are mistreated here, I'll repost this.
How much did O'Rourke pay CNN for the trash poll? O'Rourke who "garnered" only 35 supporters in his rally could not beat a dead horse to get the nomination.
Although it does make one wonder. "Hi, I'm taking a poll commissioned by CNN, and if the election were held today, would you vote for that racist, unstable Putin-puppet Trump or for one of these fine alternatives?"
Mother has an Evil Grandma Inc sewing circle. She told me they answer these calls to engage in disinformation warfare (her words, not mine).
I'm so proud of her.
Hispanic Unemployment Lowest Ever...
Best for women since 1953...
Record jobs even for high school dropouts!
ENVY OF THE WORLD
UNEMPLOYMENT 49-YEAR LOW
WAGE HITS $27.77/HOUR
STOCK MARKET ENDLESS RALLY
TRUMP APPROVAL 50%
“The stock market is roaring -- but you don't feel it. There [was a] $2 trillion dollar tax cut like last year. Did you feel it? Did you get anything from it? Of course not. Of course not,” Biden told a Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, crowd.
one of these things, is not like the other; one of these things, doesn't belong
Way too early.
Wait until both parties nominate their tickets, then start taking the polling seriously around Labor Day, 2020.
Hell, in 2016 the polls taken on Nov. 4 couldn't predict what happened on Nov. 8. So I am supposed to get all worked up about hypothetical match-ups 18+ months out?
At this point, people should look for a candidate in whom they have confidence as far as sharing their opinions and being able to handle the job, and with a plausible path to victory. Parsing percentage differences is not part of that. Esp for a Democrat, because any of them will be supported by the full weight of the media and other cultural elites, and will raise a TON of money.
The poll is obvious nonsense given that CNN also tells us that Beto is road kill in the Democratic primary polls. Seriously, both polls can't be right.
https://babylonbee.com/news/dem-candidates-promise-relief-to-americans-sick-and-tired-of-working-all-these-plentiful-jobs
“The stock market is roaring -- but you don't feel it. There [was a] $2 trillion dollar tax cut like last year. Did you feel it? Did you get anything from it? Of course not. Of course not,” Biden told a Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, crowd. "
Did that fake populist ask them if they ignored the growth in their 401K's? Did he ask them if they noticed more money in their weekly paychecks?
Ask yourself: do you really think 60,000,000+ people are going to vote for [insert candidate here]?
If you thought LLR Chuck was going to let ANY criticism at all of his beloved MSM hack polling go unanswered, well, then you dont understand our Durbin-cuckholster admitted Smear Merchant LLR-lefty Chuck very well at all.
Yancey Ward: "The poll is obvious nonsense given that CNN also tells us that Beto is road kill in the Democratic primary polls. Seriously, both polls can't be right."
Shhhhh.
You dont want trigger our resident Maddow-fanboy Chuck.
Did you feel it?
Encouraging comparisons of feelings between a Trump economy and an Obama economy seems like a loser for Biden.
Its easy to understand LLR Chuck's frustration and inevitable lashing out.
Every one of his dem/lefty heroes was made to look like the morons they are and Chuck does not like that.
Not. One. Bit.
He is probably still seething that Schiff-ty and Swalwell have been completely exposed and Nadler didnt even get his 17 pizzas on time!!
These are dark times indeed for Chuck and Team Dem.
The only relevant info from that poll is that, outside the obvious outlier of Beto, Trump is still within spitting distance of most of the candidates despite everything that's been thrown at him and he's actually beating the only Democrat to have any sort of negative media coverage.
Mike
Darrell said...
I thought I saw Chuck the other day, but it was only a giant burlap bag of shit. Easy mistake.
5/3/19, 9:36 AM
Drago said...
If you thought LLR Chuck was going to let ANY criticism at all of his beloved MSM hack polling go unanswered, well, then you dont understand our Durbin-cuckholster admitted Smear Merchant LLR-lefty Chuck very well at all.
5/3/19, 12:20 PM
Drago said...
Yancey Ward: "The poll is obvious nonsense given that CNN also tells us that Beto is road kill in the Democratic primary polls. Seriously, both polls can't be right."
Shhhhh.
You dont want trigger our resident Maddow-fanboy Chuck.
5/3/19, 12:21 PM
Drago said...
Its easy to understand LLR Chuck's frustration and inevitable lashing out.
Every one of his dem/lefty heroes was made to look like the morons they are and Chuck does not like that.
Not. One. Bit.
He is probably still seething that Schiff-ty and Swalwell have been completely exposed and Nadler didnt even get his 17 pizzas on time!!
These are dark times indeed for Chuck and Team Dem.
5/3/19, 12:38 PM
Now; Ann Althouse:
Try to keep on topic and avoid personal back-and-forth with other commenters. If you see that your comments are always deleted, get a clue and find somewhere else to write.
Althouse; I can suggest a few comments on this page -- purely personal attacks and having nothing to do with the topic of your blog-post as I addressed it -- to be deleted under your moderation policy.
bwebster nails it:
"I'm pretty unapologetic about the fact that (a) I voted for Trump in 2016 and (b) I plan to vote for him again next year -- but I don't talk about it to anyone because I don't want to put up with the crap that will come my way."
What is the Althouse policy on admitted smear merchants posting obvious lies with clear far-left sympathizing malicious intent?
Additionally, what might the Althouse policy be for those posters who have been asked to leave by the blog moderators but refuse?
I should ask LLR Chuck to follow up on that for us as he seems to have a backchannel communications avenue.
LOL
The stock market is roaring -- but you don't feel it. There [was a] $2 trillion dollar tax cut like last year. Did you feel it?
Well, I got it right here. Come on and feel it.
I think Althouse' dilemma will be choosing between a woman and a gay.
Nah...Trump is just way too fun. Whoever follows him into the White House will be like the act that followed The Beatles on Ed Sullivan.
The idea that the lefty/LLR-approved media hacks are playing the polls "straight" is something only buffoons and LLR's could believe as astoundingly good economic numbers abound and the Lefty/LLR-lefty collusion/obstruction hoaxes have been demolished.
The jig is up and has been up for quite a long time.
Still, lefty-billionaire funded Bulwarkians gonna Bulwarkian....
Here is the issue. I can do a poll of a 100 people that shows Beto beating Trump 100 to nil. Almost no one would believe such poll because it is obviously ridiculous- it would fool no one but Chuck pretty much. The key to producing a biased poll isn't really the choosing the sample, it is choosing the target margin- in short, what can you get a majority to believe, and still have a story to tell that anyone would click the bait.
You want to know what is close to certain to happen in 2020 given current economic state of the country? That Trump will get 49% with a plus/minus of 2%. I would guess that is about a 60-70% chance to win, and I think it is only that low because of the relentless negative coverage he gets from the fully incorporated Democratic Party press organization. If there is a recession between now than the election, then I would put that vote target at 46% plus/minus 2%, which would be about a 25% chance of winning.
The idea that you are going to see a 2008 election result for the Democrats is ridiculous as of right now, and yet that is what almost all these preliminary polls are showing. Look, you have to call nonsense nonsense when you see it.
Obama won by a margin of 7.2% during an outright financial panic laid entirely at the feet of a Republican president. I think the electorate is just a tiny bit more favorable to the Democrats than it was 11 years ago, but if the 2020 population was the one voting in 2008, Obama would not have topped a margin of 7.5% in the same circumstances- in other words, the electorate is not all that different from 2008- these sorts of changes are slow moving.
If Trump takes this same economy into the 2020 election, he is likely to win. W. Bush's reelection was only close because the war in Iraq was already looking like a bad idea by that point, and it probably cost Bush about 2-3% of the vote- I considered voting against him, and if the Democrats hadn't nominated Kerry, I would have. Without those wars, and with the economy he had in 2004, Bush probably would have won states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and probably Michigan.
RCP 2016 Presidential poll average had Hillary up 8 percent 2 weeks before the election. CNBC had Hillary up 10 percent 1 week before the election. That should tell you to completely ignore all polls, always, especially this long before the election. These things are either meaningless or dishonest.
I agree Iraq depressed Bush's 2004 total. (My dad voted Democratic for the only time in his life.) And that the financial crisis killed McCain's chances. (My mom voted Democratic for the only time so far.) But what's the explanation for the 2018 results in a good economy? Trump's conduct is sui generis. I fully expect my mom to vote Democratic again after returning to the Republican fold after 2008. He's just that off-putting to many Republicans besides Chuck.
I guess Trump will need to produce 12% GDP growth, 0.1% unemployment, double worker pay, and give us all 100% of our taxes back just to get close to beating a socialist, becuase voters are retarded?
If Trump cannot win on his record, we deserve the crapfest we will get instead, and the poverty we will have earned. Malaise and stagflation, will come calling soon. We can go from the envy of the world to a stinking pile of backstabbing, pet eating mongrels in very short order, and it will never be able to be fixed, becuase that basic American ability may well be miseducated right out of our people by now. On the bright side, illegal immigrants will be looking elsewhere, and climbing back over the wall. Winning!
You may have noticed how in many circles nobody is credited with the wonderful economic conditions we have, becuase it's likely caused by sunspot activity.
readering: "But what's the explanation for the 2018 results in a good economy?"
The full economuc effects had not yet been in effect long enough to move the needle and your collusion/obstruction lies and stalinst spy tactics had not yet been fully exposed.
2020 will be the reverse of those ket conditions.
Not to mention the "moderate-ness" the dems conveyed (fakely bigly) in 2018 has already been destroyed in 2019.
Infanticide, open borders, crime, insane gender/SJ lunacy, full blown economic leftism in display, Kavanaugh hearings, etc.
2020 will be nothing like 2018.
But what's the explanation for the 2018 results in a good economy?
I don't know. What was the explanation for Clinton losing 54 House seats (and the Senate) in 1994? What was the explanation for Obama losing 64 House seats in 2010?
Trump only 'lost' 41.
The people who don't believe the polls are deluding themselves. I heard the same arguments about biased pollsters from Althouse commenters in 2012 and 2018, and they were dead wrong both times. In 2016 the polls were only 2% off, but fortunately that was a big enough difference in the key states. (Nate Silver in fact allowed for this possibility and thus gave Trump a 1/3 chance to win.)
The truth is plain to see: The media and social media has brainwashed a majority of the citizens into thinking the only virtuous thing to do is to vote Democrat.
bagoh20 knows the score.
Manbaby Chuck said...
Mommy! Ban all the bad people picking on me!!!!
P.S. Forget all the bad shit I did, like violating Meade's ban openly and repeatedly.
Craig: "bagoh20 knows the score."
Right, nobody else noticed Trump gets no credit for the economy and the press coverage is 99%+ extremely biased against Trump.
Thank goodness someone here brought that to our attention.
They are heavily biased in favor of Democrats.
I think there is an enormous Bradley effect at work, more than just the D bias.
The Media has had an effect.
But what's the explanation for the 2018 results in a good economy? Trump's conduct is sui generis<
Trump lost fewer Congress seats than usual for the first midterm.
I agree that the economy had not really gotten going yet and the tax cut was lied about by the Media.
Reagan lost the Senate in 1982 because Dole had delayed the tax cut until it was trope late to se any effect by 1982 election,
My principle concern is Vote Harvesting.
Democrats had trial runs in CA and AZ in 2018 and it was pretty successful.
Wiped out the GOP in Orange County and elected Sinema in AZ
"Too late" Autocorrect again,
Why aren't they 50 points ahead?
rcocean said...
I think Republicans/Conservatives are really deluding themselves if they think Trump is going to get elected, without a long tough fight. And the chances of winning are only 50/50. Bush-II, Mr. pander bear, Mr. War on Terror, Barely got re-elected in 2004 against a very weak candidate. Now, 15 years later, the electorate is much more liberal due to our importing millions of "immigrants".
Not only that the D's are committing vote fraud on a massive scale and the MSM is 100% on their side. It doesn't look good, and the R's had better get smart and energized.
I think this is right.
Republicans are not pushing back against "Vote Harvesting."
Democrats are going to start getting indicted shortly. The finger is going to be pointed at Obama within months.
But I just don't see the seriousness from republican voters. The left is fighting as if their life depended on it.
The voter fraud in 2018 was egregious. They flipped 30 seats in the house days after the election was over. It will be orders of magnitude worse in 2020.
The more I think about it, if Beto is up by 10, the race is neck and neck really. They always tighten up the polls at the end, but at this time of the cycle, it’s about creating momentum for the Democrats.
Craig said...
I trust the polls, and I don't think the state-by-state view is any more favorable for Trump.
Objectively, Trump is doing a great job, but the media (including social media) have persuaded the people otherwise.
So get ready for more socialism, more identity politics, more corruption, and more hoaxes designed to intimidate anyone who dares to express a conservative view.
We are less than two years away from (permanent?) one-party rule.
I can't disagree with this.
But 2016 shouldn't have happened. We should have President Hillary and we should be in the middle of a cold civil war against a police state.
Comey and Clapper and Mueller and Brennan should still be spying on Hillary and Obama's political opponents.
The IRS should still be auditing and harassing conservatives.
The EPA should still be shutting down GE's competition. But they are now bankrupt.
They had all of the institutions and all of the corporations and all of the money on their side and somehow Trump beat them all.
Trump first had to defeat the GOPe traitors.
Then he had to defeat Hillary and the entire machine.
Something saved us in 2016. I think we have more on our side in 2020 than we did in 2016.
Republicans are not pushing back against "Vote Harvesting."
Vote harvesting isn't much of an issue in the presidential campaign, as Trump has no chance in California anyway. I don't think it's legal in the battleground states (though I suppose it may happen). It could affect congressional races, though, as it probably did in California..
bagoh20 said...
I guess Trump will need to produce 12% GDP growth, 0.1% unemployment, double worker pay, and give us all 100% of our taxes back just to get close to beating a socialist, becuase voters are retarded?
If Trump cannot win on his record, we deserve the crapfest we will get instead, and the poverty we will have earned. Malaise and stagflation, will come calling soon. We can go from the envy of the world to a stinking pile of backstabbing, pet eating mongrels in very short order, and it will never be able to be fixed, becuase that basic American ability may well be miseducated right out of our people by now. On the bright side, illegal immigrants will be looking elsewhere, and climbing back over the wall. Winning!
Social conditions are such that people who voted for Trump felt forced to apologize for that vote even when they were correct.
People are still saying "I don't like Trump but look at the alternative" and "Hillary is not president."
It is cowardice. Republican voters by and large are cowards.
Trump is pushing through all of the policies that Republican voters say they want and they still refuse to join the fight.
It is a fact: Obama spied on political opponents. Jail is too good for him.
People who support democrats right now support the end of our republic as founded.
But republican voters just will not stick their heads out and defend our country or the people like Trump that fight for them. People on this board decried that I called Obama out as a traitor.
People keep saying "We appreciate your service."
Sure you do.
Did Republicans win any contest that went into extra innings in 2018?
James K said...
Republicans are not pushing back against "Vote Harvesting."
Vote harvesting isn't much of an issue in the presidential campaign, as Trump has no chance in California anyway. I don't think it's legal in the battleground states (though I suppose it may happen). It could affect congressional races, though, as it probably did in California..
It will to affect national races.
Atlanta can easily turn Georgia.
Austin and Dallas can easily turn Texas.
You saw what happened in Arizona.
Nevada is already lost because Las Vega is so corrupt.
Broward county made an obvious move to manufacture hundreds of thousands of votes to turn Florida.
There was zero accountability.
Every red state has a big blue city with a state government seat in it. It only takes a couple truck fulls of harvested votes in Philadelphia to turn Pennsylvania.
Achilles: "Trump first had to defeat the GOPe traitors.
Then he had to defeat Hillary and the entire machine.
Something saved us in 2016. I think we have more on our side in 2020 than we did in 2016."
I should note that I dont disagree fundamentally with Craig or Achilles or others here.
I believe our long-term trajectory, barring some astonishing turn of events, is already set: we will go full European style lefty govt which will explicitly remove our fundamental rights.
No republic has survived forever and I doubt ours will either.
Trump was an unexpected speed bump which has turned into a significant barrier....for now.
If the dems win in 2020 they will proceed rapidly to ensure no republican ever wins again and they and their LLR allies will complete the "fundamental transformation" they set out to deliver in 2009.
Vote harvesting isn't much of an issue in the presidential campaign, as Trump has no chance in California anyway.
True but it beat Martha McSally in AZ, The Soros organization has been funding state Secretary of State elections for several years now. The plan is to go to all "Mail in ballots" which are easily harvested and faked. I think Colorado, plus Washington and Oregon are all mail in. That is a key to watch. The GOP has the AZ legislature but they did not stop the process.
Social conditions are such that people who voted for Trump felt forced to apologize for that vote even when they were correct.
That’s a problem? So sorry y’all don’t get invited to the cool kids stuff anymore. Consider it a blessing.
Kevin said...
I'm one of those people, you know — in Wisconsin and capable of voting for either party's candidate.
Then inform us. Tell us which Dems get your vote over Trump right now.
5/3/19, 8:52 AM
Sebastian said...
"I'm one of those people, you know"
Yes, we know.
She's already informed us of one thing. She voted for Hillary in 2016. This is not an opinion or a guess, this is fact. The reason we know this is that if she had voted for Trump for President in 2016, she would not be capable of voting for the Democrat in 2020, because President Trump has delivered everything that any Trump voter could have hoped or wished for in 2016.
The reason we know this is that if she had voted for Trump for President in 2016, she would not be capable of voting for the Democrat in 2020, because President Trump has delivered everything that any Trump voter could have hoped or wished for in 2016.
A vote against Hillary in 2016 is not necessarily a vote for Trump in 2020.
There is also the promise that will be made continuously by the Dems: removing Trump will "return civility" to our government.
It's the old "kid throws a tantrum and the parent gets blamed" scenario.
There are too many people who "don't like confrontation" for there not to be an effect.
JAORE said...
"....capable of voting for either party's candidate."
Except Biden,of course. You disqualified him. Or was that SOOOoooooo long ago?
5/3/19, 9:46 AM
Ann's whole life revolves around not being taken for granted. She will eat rocks or blow donkeys just so that you can't rely on predicting that she won't do those things.
In other words, it's her aim in life to be unreliable, to be someone who can't be counted on.
Those are the first ones I want to shoot in the back of the head.
A vote against Hillary in 2016 is not necessarily a vote for Trump in 2020.
AMEN!
Chuck,
Why do you hate Blacks and Hispanics? Under Trump they are enjoying their lowest unemployment rates EVAH and the highest wage increases EVAH? Are you a racist, or just god damn stupid? Are killing babies and fudgepacker marriage more important than Blacks and Hispanics?
Ann,
If you are voting Demtard, you are voting for failure. Not very bright. Maybe you should consider a home in Venezuela or Cuba where you can experience first hand the new Demtard Party
does anyone believe cnn polls?
My mother voted for Trump in '16 but I expect her to vote for the Democrat in '20 (for only the second time, after '08).
daniel: "does anyone believe cnn polls?"
LLR and admitted smear merchant Chuck.
And he believes them deeply, passionately, with astonishing faith and reverence.
With todays economic reports, it has to be a living hell over in Nancy Pelosi/LLR Chuck/AOC land.
Absolute living hell.
I cant wait to see the anti-semites on the left like LLR Chuck go ballistic when Israel names an entire town after Trump, just as they did when Israel announced they were naming the new train station near our Jerusalem embassy after Trump!
LOL
Good times, good times...
Drago, come to LA tomorrow for the party for the naming of a street after president Obama.
readering: "Drago, come to LA tomorrow for the party for the naming of a street after president Obama."
LOL
Yeah, cuz that's the equivalent of Israel naming a town after Trump.
Good thinking there WW2 mistaken "Scholar".
Gee, what's next? Berkeley naming a street after a cop killer?
Blogger readering said...
Drago, come to LA tomorrow for the party for the naming of a street after president Obama.
So they are naming a street after a known traitor who has been caught spying on political opponents.
You people are just disgusting.
"My mother voted for Trump in '16 but I expect her to vote for the Democrat in '20 (for only the second time, after '08)."
-- As a rule, I don't tell people who I voted for. After seeing people getting beaten for voting for the wrong person, I may tell people I voted correctly, no matter what I really do, just to ensure my own safety in some areas.
Post a Comment