1. Alex Pareene in The New Republic ("Democrats Have Created an “Electability” Monster/And this time, it's even eating establishment candidates")(boldface added to highlight the simmering freakout):
Senator Kamala Harris was supposed to be a frontrunner.... So, what has, thus far (there is a lot of election left to go), prevented Harris’s campaign from breaking out?... Polling broadly shows Democratic voters thinking Joe Biden has the best chance at winning the general election....That was rather incoherent. It made me think that the core problem was the premature confidence in Harris. She fit the electability idea extremely well, as Pareene essentially says. But she never caught on, and Biden stepped into the space she didn't become large enough to fill.
“Electability” is a crock of shit. It is defined, like political “moderation,” only in terms of opposition to things people want....
If “electability” previously meant “the candidate most associated with the hawkish and business-friendly wing of the party,” it now seems to have become purely and nakedly demographic. Former Clinton voters are flocking to the various white men in the race, avoiding candidates they actually might like, because they see their own affinity for those candidates as a political liability....
[W]hen even someone like Harris—a member in good standing of the party establishment, a dedicated player of the “electability” game her entire career, a person whose campaign strategy from the outset seemed to be to rerun the Clinton campaign but without the Clinton baggage—struggles to gain traction with Democratic voters, it feels like the monster has turned on its creators....
2. Here's Mike Allen at Axios, in "Joe Biden is running like he won the Democratic primaries." This piece is pretty neutral. It doesn't sound alarmed, but it may (subtly) sound the alarm: "In the opening days of his 2020 campaign, former Vice President Joe Biden has gone all-in on the general election, positioning himself as the eventual Democratic nominee rather than scrapping with the 19 other wannabes. "
3. "Media that dismissed Biden now see him as clear front-runner" — Howard Kurtz at Fox News: "I still think Biden has to show that he can operate at today's hyperspeed Twitter pace and defend his long record. But he is clearly showing more strength than most of the pundits predicted."
Posts
90 comments:
While Biden might have an electability problem, he's the best bet they have. Sanders? He's dropping as fast as gravity will allow it.
Women are too laughable. It would be like electing an Indian, only with nagging instead of empty platitudes. So it's a choce among the men.
They say you can't beat something with nothing, but the Democrats don't really have much choice. What they've got is plenty o' nothing.
No one broke from the pack. Bernie has his core supporters and none of the others have caught on, at least yet.
As the sort of frontrunner, it doesn’t make sense for Biden to attack the other Dems. He will deflect the issue of his Bad Touch Biden and Party the criticisms against his UnWoke statements and record, but he can leave the personal attacks to the others. Let Mayor Pete and the others go after Crazy Bernie.
It’s a decent strategy. Biden can stay above the fray somewhat and not alienate any potential supporters.
Kamala is in a position to be the VP nominee if she wants. If she wants to be president she needs to go after Biden directly. No surrogates or planted stories.
Not sure she will do it.
The biased media has elided Biden's early poor public performances.
Joe "Botox Tongue" Biden ain't got a prayer.
I hope Biden is their choice. He brings youthful diversity and crisp dialog to the campaign. He stands in stark contrast to the elderly and lily white Trump.
once people see the you tube video of Jo Biden fondling countless little girls, will he Still Be the front runner? Does america Really Want a Pedophile running the country?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwXweiRjckI
The New Republic used to be an intelligent magazine.
I subscribed to it in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s.
I have to admit, I thought Kamala was a shoe in. This just goes to show the outsized impact that social media and mainstream media has on perceptions. Just because some narrative is being blared out endlessly on Twitter and CNN doesn't mean it's in any way reflective of the mindset of regular voters. Wasn't there some recent study that pointed out how Twitter is really only representive of a small but vocal minority?
Regular Democrats are choosing a candidate that they think is most likely to win the election. And the dem-media complex isn't happy with that. They'd prefer someone who ticks all the right boxes even if they lose (or they're delusional enough to believe that they can win with such a candidate).
Howard Schultz is the person who could most hurt the Democrats. Their bat-crazy socialist base is maybe 20% of the electorate. Schultz would drain away the moderate Democrats who don't embrace the craziness.
I read Pareene this way "You'd like Harris if you took time to know her, but you are racist and sexist because you think the other racists and sexists will only vote for Biden, so you are supporting him. Well how did you racists work in 2016?"
My own view is Harris had plenty of time to build a brand. She didn't do a good job, but she still has time, and I do think she is a bigger threat in the general because of how she'll run.
Once air hits your brain it's never the same.
Kamala stalled out after she put on that Rubik's cube coat in South Carolina
Harris is a poor candidate on her own.
She's the sort that needs to be packaged by others, and her interactions limited.
She looks good physically (for her age), but there is no demagogic talent there.
She was a Dem party favorite over here in CA, selected and coddled, much more for her image than her personal abilities.
Biden, for all his faults, has the basic politicians skill set. He projects an attractive personality. This should be standard equipment among such a field of candidates.
I have to admit, I thought Kamala was a shoe in.
Women love shoes.
Well hello Joe, what do you know
I just got back from a vaudeville show
Do-hoo you sing and dance
I-hi'll take a chance
We-ell OK let us go
If you were a female, with long flowing locks of golden or brunette hair, standing too close to Joe Biden, you'd be alarmed, too!
Kamala better get busy sucking some cock. Buttigieg levels of cock.
Voters are drawn to candidates who seem like they are confident they can win. There are many candidates out there (Harris comes to mind) who do not have this quality.
Hmmm. Maybe people don't see why Kamala's all that great. What has she done besides check off diversity boxes?
Howard Schultz is the person who could most hurt the Democrats. Their bat-crazy socialist base is maybe 20% of the electorate
They are maybe 20% of the Dem electorate. But the half of Dems who vote in the primaries are overwhelmingly disproportionate to this group so the combination with identity voters results in a clear majority.
Name recognition continues to be hugely important, particularly for the low-information voters who remain the vast majority of the electorate.
"he is clearly showing more strength than most of the pundits predicted"
But not with Althouse, who has already declared him disqualified if he doesn't take back his demonstrable lie.
At least, until she ponders who is most pragmatic and most likely to protect women's bodies.
K.Harris has "done" nothing at all, to be clear.
She has filled positions in CA and local government, literally a seatwarmer.
Her best skill has been to privately convince the CA political machine of her value.
She has a remarkably low public profile even in CA.
Democrats aren't alarmed about Biden. Younger white male Democrats who support Bernie are alarmed by Biden. Older Democrats like Biden & they vote more then the younger generation in primaries. The polls could change quickly. But, as of now, Biden's the front runner, far ahead of the others.
Older Democrats aren't on Twitter so much. The average Democrat is not a pundit, doesn't write for the New Republic, and doesn't support AOC. But they vote and they vote in higher numbers then the twitter-sphere.
Alex Parene: avoiding candidates they actually might like
Alex is scolding the voters for not dating the right lawyer.
Blogger Nonapod said...
I have to admit, I thought Kamala was a shoe in.
I did, too. Maybe too many people watched her interrogating Kavanaugh. She is a nasty piece of work.
Hillary without the charm. Willie would be a better candidate, like Bill C.
"How alarmed are Democrats about Biden?"
It's posed as a question about Biden, but it's more a question about Democrats.
Over the past 40 years, the Democrats and the media have moved so far left, that they are now insane.
In Reagan's entire presidency (80'-88') - he worked with a Democrat House. They passed tax cuts, they spent a shitload on the military, they never impeached him. Probably, 1/3 of the Dems were bona fide conservative (mostly from the South), 1/3 were totally reasonable, and maybe only 1/3 really liberal.
There weren't too many wacko leftists.
Now, the Dem party is mostly wacko delusional leftists and collusion truthers. Maxine Waters, Omar, AOC, Tlaib, Schiff, Nadler, Swallwell, etc, etc. Indeed, then, Socialist Bernie was the outlier from Vermont, and now he is a mainstream Dem.
Biden is an old relic from a time past, but for the Dems, the times have changed for the worse.
So, Yes, the Dems are alarmed at Biden. To appease them, he may have to repudiate half of his voting record (Iraq War, Crime Bill, NAFTA, opposition to busing in the 70s, etc, etc).
And, yet, the alternatives for the Dems are even worse.
Bernie is the best fit for the modern day Democrat Party. But, he scares off the Dem money guys, and that causes other problems.
Leland: I read Pareene this way "You'd like Harris if you took time to know her, but you are racist and sexist because you think the other racists and sexists will only vote for Biden, so you are supporting him. Well how did you racists work in 2016?"
Yeah, pretty much. But you can use the same reading for just about any Dem punditry these days. Thus the incoherence, as our hostess points out: it's hard to not fall over your own shoelaces when looking for ways to say "racist! sexist! phobic!" over and over and over without alienating your audience or sounding too stupid.
"I have to admit, I thought Kamala was a shoe in."
Impt to remember twitter & the media sphere isn't real life. She might play in Oakland, CA but she does not play with Democrats in Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina., New Hampshire.
At their very first debate, Kamala Harris will demand that Joe Biden say publicly whether he ever has talked with anyone at the Kasowitz Benson Torres law firm.
Biden better be ready and have a good answer.
There is a reason only one prosecutor in history has ever been endorsed by a major party (Dewey). Prosecutors may legally be “for the People” but it is hard for the people to forget that prosecutors put people in jail.
Name recognition continues to be hugely important, particularly for the low-information voters who remain the vast majority of the electorate.
Beto O'Roarke and "Mayor Pete" Can't-Pronounce-His-Name had no name recognition until the media kept repeating them ad nauseam, 24/7.
They were the people "breaking out" and "showing more strength than pundits predicted" a week ago and the week before that.
We are weeks away from the realization that none of these people are going to beat Trump and it's time to draft Michelle, Oprah, or a politician to be named later.
Johnson said that second marriages are the triumph of hope over experience.
Seems like thinking a former vp can possibly be electable is much the same thing.
Applies to Biden in 2020 and pence in 2024.
Though, pence is a former governor so might, possibly, maybe, be an exception.
John Henry
Harris is down in all the polls.
She was only considered a "front-runner" because she checked all the Social Justice Warrior boxes and the significant parts of the MSM boosted her for same. For all the talk of how black women will cast a significant vote in Democratic primaries, there's no evidence that ordinary black women (as opposed to SJW types) actually embraced "homewrecker Harris."
No wonder Stacey Abrams is still thinking of running. Harris isn't dominating her "lane."
About 20% of the base doesn't like Biden because he's not left enough. About 40% of the base loves Biden. The rest is undecided, but not opposed to Biden. By base, I do not mean activists, or twitter people, or media writers or pundits. By base I mean the ordinary, regular voters who regularly vote in primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina.
It's early yet but I suspect this might be more then name recognition with about 40% of ordinary, regular D primary voters.
Biden has a touchy feely problem. Kamala has a sleeping her way to the top problem.
Sleepy needs a new art director. I suggest Ann Althouse. She's tested and ready.
First the tit grabbing hand in the logo
An artist featured in former Vice President Joe Biden’s latest campaign ad, which is titled “America: Anything Is Possible,” isn’t actually American.
The ad shows footage of an artist at work while Biden says he’s “more optimistic about America’s chances in the world today than I have been in my whole career.”
But the artist isn’t American — he’s Danish, The Daily Caller News Foundation has learned.
https://dailycaller.com/2019/04/30/artist-joe-biden-ad-denmark/
John Henry
I meant rested.
But she is tested too.
John Henry
This is still a coronation not a horse race. DNC went out and got some analytics and they’re Moneyballing this thing. The non voters that Obama garnered are not voting for a woman. Certainly not a black woman.
Could it be that the median Democrat is not actually a progressive socialist lunatic? Who knew?
This time same as the last time. There will be pretending- diversity iry, race, blah blah. The rich guy will get his say then depart ‘for the good of the country’ or some such. Then the one they chose before it all began will end up on top. Some grumpiness will ensue then the sheep will all flock together. This time same as the last time.
One aspect I don't see considered very much: the Democratic party got rid of "winner take all" primaries. So this means: (a) all (or many) candidates will probably stay in the race, even if they don't win a primary, because they are all accumulating some delegates, and because of (b); (b) it is very likely that there will not be a clear victor in the first ballot at the Dem convention; And anyone who has committed delegates has something to trade at the convention; so (c) there are all kinds of possible scenarios for a second, third, etc ballot. How about Bernie-Harris, with an announcement that Warren would be the first pick for the supreme court? Or Sherrod Brown-Stacey Abrams ticket? Or Harold Stassen-Hillary Clinton?
Biden says he’s “more optimistic about America’s chances in the world today than I have been in my whole career
Thanks Trump!!!
I was a little bit shocked by that slurring montage from Biden's speech. Especially with the moments of confusion. He cannot survive many more such speeches.
Many opinions, now nothing more than the most fleeting impressions, will change when our domestic picture changes. SF real estate losing value? Stocks losing value in a real way? Who knows how voters will view their options when the formerly rosy background darkens.
He seems the least crazy, so there is that. But he supported the oun revival bloc (svoboda) in the Ukraine along with mccain.
Its clear the racist lefty and LLR-lefty democrat base voters wont support a person of color.
Modern day demicrat party/LLR Primary Jim Crow.
Obviously.
Harris is a dangerous woman. I'm glad she's tanking here, but watch out for 2024.
Ironically, her reputation as a "kick-ass" prosecutor hurts her in the modern day Democrat Party, because the Dems don't want to "lock them up" anymore, they want to "set them free."
If Trump wins re-election in 2020 (and I believe he is more likely than not to win), the Dems will freak out, even more than their normal freak-outs. "No more straight white male losers!", they will bellow. In 2024, Kammy will be 60, still reasonably attractive, and they will be begging her to take the mantle.
it's time to draft Michelle
YES! let's ask america; Are you better off NOW? OR Eight years ago?
I just think it’s so funny to see the Democrats fussing over “electability.” “Electability” was supposed to be something McCain and Romney brought to the table, and it was claimed at the time that Trump was manifestly not electable. Makes you wonder, doesn’t it?
Nate Silver is right, as usual. Biden is the clear front runner and there are only five others who look like they have a chance and no clear leader among those - Harris, Sanders, Buttigieg, Warren, and O’Rourke.
Once primaries really start the Democrats 15% rule, below that you get no delegates, will quickly knock out the other candidates and half or more of the five. Harris and O'Rourke also get some room with California and Texas being early voting states and they may clear the threshold with home state advantage.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-way-out-in-front-second-place-is-anyones-guess/
It's early, but the choice of a running mate will be a powerful tool for Biden to offset the old-white-man trope. Trump's choice of his opposite - the sober, experienced Pence - was a shrewd, winning move for a lot of voters.
A word of caution though: if I remember correctly, most blacks, especially black men did not support Obama initially either. They thought that white people are too racist to vote for someone black, could be the same thing with a black woman. Once they see it could happen, there might be a preference Cascade.
Biden could be the first brain damaged American President. Dems should be proud of their acceptance of Disabled Americans. I am sure a handler like Valerie Jarrett can assist him.
I told you the dems have given up on 2020.
So throw Biden out there to stir shit up, and not do any damage to their precious Kamala.
The play for 2024 then becomes interesting.
Will they nominate Harris to face Ivanka?
Are you better off NOW? OR Eight years ago?
Lunch is definitely better NOW.
Kamala Harris is an identity politician only. Therefore, her appeal is highly limited. Seeing her being elected here in CA told everyone that we only needed to elect a black female who was pushed by the Democratic Machine in CA. She has zero appeal outside of CA. She has zero accomplishments in and outside of CA. Have we not learned the danger of electing a politician with zero accomplishments (Obama) and the danger that is to our country?
I won't vote for Biden, but, of all the Democratic contenders, he's the least annoying. If, by some mischance, he wins the actual election, the decline and fall of America will be slower under him than with the other Democratic candidates. If you want less agita, vote for Biden. That might work for some voters....... Biden is meh but you know who he is. Kamala is meh, and there is much about her that seems distant and unknowable.
In the immediate aftermath of the 2016 election numerous hardcore Democrats, especially Jewish Democrats, asked me (in my capacity as their token Republican acquaintance) whether I though Biden could have beaten Trump. My answer was always the same: get on YouTube and enter the search string "Creepy Joe Biden." At the time my conclusion was that Democrats in the party base recognized that Hillary Clinton was a uniquely weak candidate.
Now my conclusion is that many in the Democrat establishment (yes, you have one too) are thinking that Biden versus Trump, which in their heart of hearts they may have wanted in 2016, is sort of like a do-over for 2016. But it isn't 2016, Trump is no longer an unknown to be feared, and Joe Biden is four years older and way past his sell-by date.
And he's still creepy.
Tommy Duncan said...
Howard Schultz is the person who could most hurt the Democrats.
Or save them.
wwww said...
"I have to admit, I thought Kamala was a shoe in."
Impt to remember twitter & the media sphere isn't real life. She might play in Oakland, CA but she does not play with Democrats in Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina., New Hampshire.
Why would she be popular in Oakland? All she did there was throw black people in jail for smoking pot.
Then bragged about her "Jamaican roots."
And get ripped by her dad...
Kamala is just a hateful piece of shit and everyone noticed.
Biden as a Presidential candidate has a past history of imploding. If he couldn't do it in his fifties, I don't think he has a better chance in his late seventies.. There's an arc with wisdom and experience, and I don't think it peaks at age 76. He's probably in better shape than Trump, but he doesn't exude the same energy or vitality........Sanders was too noble and high minded to use Hillary's email scandals against her. The other Democratic candidates will, likewise, not mention Biden's age, but it will be starkly visible......I just think it's a damn shame that Biden had to go to all the expense and pain of hair plugs, and still end up bald. On the plus side, he has the kind of face that absorbs plastic surgery well, and he doesn't have that Joan Rivers look.
Since the Democrat party is now the party of as many endless stupid wars as possible why not nominate Joe Biden?
He voted for almost as many wars as Hillary.
And when the amazing amounts of cash his family has "earned" pedaling influence to foreign countries comes out democrats will feel right at home.
They seem to like grifters who sell our country out to the highest bidder.
He really has no chance when the campaign actually starts and these topics are discussed.
All this is the media, the consultants, and the candidates test-driving campaigns like a focus group.
The voters don't care. Period.
if I remember correctly, most blacks, especially black men did not support Obama initially either. They thought that white people are too racist to vote for someone black,
They didn't support him initially but the reasoning was different. They didn't think he was "black" enough to justify their support. But they came around because ultimately they vote identity. They will this time around as well.
When is Hillary jumping in? That's the real deal, folks. She demands power-->
I knew Kamala wasn't going to play well in the south, which has lot of delegates. I doubted she would play in New England or the midwest. It's Warren vs. Sanders for about 20-25% of primary voters; they are splitting that primary vote. Biden gets the huge bulk of 40% and the rest is divided between the other candidates.
Biden as a candidate: Will age matter? Don't know. But he wouldn't go up against a younger candidate with natural hair. His age might play well in the midwest among aging voters.
Tommy Duncan: Howard Schultz is the person who could most hurt the Democrats.
Achilles: Or save them.
At this point the party could be saved, but the treatment is really going to hurt.
The gangrene new deal is too far entrenched and parts of the Democrat body politic will have to be amputated before it can spread further.
wwww said...
Biden as a candidate: Will age matter? Don't know. But he wouldn't go up against a younger candidate with natural hair. His age might play well in the midwest among aging voters.
Are they seriously going to ignore his support for the Iraq War?
I guess they ignored Hillary's...
Are they seriously going to ignore his son's work for the governments of Ukraine and China and Joe's intercession in government affairs on their behalf?
I mean I guess they ignored Hillary's obvious corruption...
Seriously what are you people thinking?
Do you actually want your government spying on political opponents?
And there's also this: Joe Biden should apologize to Clarence Thomas, Not to Anita Hill
the media doesn't focus on the characteristics of primary voters. Only 28.5% of eligible voters went to the polls in 2016 (Pew Research). Are there any polls of likely-primary-voting Dem candidates? After all, AOC won her primary with about 15,000 votes in a 80% Dem district.
Kevin said...
Tommy Duncan: Howard Schultz is the person who could most hurt the Democrats.
Achilles: Or save them.
At this point the party could be saved, but the treatment is really going to hurt.
The gangrene new deal is too far entrenched and parts of the Democrat body politic will have to be amputated before it can spread further.
Republicans did it.
We had to get rid of the neocons and their stupid wars.
We had to get rid of the Chamber of Commerce and their constant pining for Open Borders and "Free" crony trade.
There are still rear guard actions. They got Mitt elected in Utah using the GoP machinery there. Murkowski has a machine in Alaska built off crony oil money.
Now I admit democrat voters are generally stupid. But they could do the same thing. The issue is all of the energy is in the progressive fascist wing. The "moderate" democrat voter has to get motivated and actually think at some point.
The 2016 Hillary voters are all turning to white men? Its as if Hillary WAS just another Lurleen Wallace, in the minds of her supporters..
Jeez Louise! It is all name recognition at this point. I doubt more than 1 in 5 Democratic primary voters in Iowa or New Hampshire would even recognize Harris' name if you put it on billboard and showed it to them. By the time of the Iowa caucus in Iowa, though, that recognition will be 10 out of 10. That is Biden's edge at the moment- only Sanders has an equal name recognition, and he isn't even a Democrat. Sanders only ran so well the last time because Clinton scared everyone with an IQ above 90 (sorry, O'Malley, you missed the cut) out of the race- Sanders was the only alternative to Shelob. Eventually the Biden opposition will settle on one alternative, and I still think that is Harris.
"Voters are drawn to candidates who seem like they are confident they can win. There are many candidates out there (Harris comes to mind) who do not have this quality"
Can't be said enough. The candidate who comes to conquer, not explore, usually gets the nod.
Biden is an old liar, an empty suit, and a plagiarist. If the Dems want a woman to be president then why don't these white guys drop out, put their convictions to work?
Eventually the Biden opposition will settle on one alternative, and I still think that is Harris.
That seems like a good bet because Harris can be packaged nicely by the MSM/DNC Propaganda Machine. There is not much that can be done to make Biden more appealing.
Another good bet is a Biden/Harris ticket. It allows Harris to become POTUS when Biden strokes out.
Nothing really matters too much until the first debate.
Another good bet is a Biden/Harris ticket. It allows Harris to become POTUS when Biden strokes out.
Good point. He's already got two holes in his skull.
Relegate Biden to history. He was no good during the Trial for Sexual Harassment of Anita Hill by Clarence Thomas, an obvious pervert and liar with a weak intellect. The goal now is to remove another pervert and liar from office by impeachment or at the ballot box. He really should spend time behind bars to humble and punish him. Guns and Ammo should not be allowed to fall into the hands of rednecks or NRA members.
Harris has some deep pocketed and patient donors behind her- the same can't be said of anyone but Biden at this point. Sanders can depend on a devoted small donor base, and that can't be said of anyone else in the campaign. Money will be an issue after New Hampshire. If you aren't in the top three by that point, the money starts to dry up quickly, and after the first big multi-primary day, it dries up completely if you finish 3rd or worse on the day- just look at what happened in the Republican primary after Super Tuesday- it was a two man race (Kasich won jack shit after that point). The Democratic nomination will be the exact same thing.
I will refrain from comment as to whether or not the dems are in panic over Biden until I read what our own perfect representative of what dems believe and deeply feel checks in: LLR Chuck
I don't think people will ever like Kamala Harris and that will count very heavily against her. And no qualifications to speak of. And I think the emigration from California and New York says more about what people are really thinking than social media so a California pol will not do well.
The party system is prevailing among the Democrats but for some reason the Obama years knocked out all attractive, experienced middle aged politicians among the Dems. They are recruiting well among young Army vets but those people have no real experience - just too young. The BB generation" Booker, Beto, Buttigieg. You know what I mean - BB's. They are tiny little balls for a gun that looks real and is good for shooting squirrels.
Post a Comment