"Scott Morrison, Australia’s conservative prime minister, scored a surprise victory in federal elections on Saturday, propelled by a populist wave — the 'quiet Australians,' he termed it — resembling the force that has upended politics in the United States, Britain and beyond. The win stunned Australian election analysts — polls had pointed to a loss for Mr. Morrison’s coalition for months. But in the end, the prime minister confounded expectations suggesting that the country was ready for a change in course after six years of tumultuous leadership under the conservative political coalition.... The election had presented Australia, a vital American ally in the Asia-Pacific, with a crucial question: Would it remain on a rightward path and stick with a political coalition that promised economic stability, jobs and cuts to immigration or choose greater action on climate change and income inequality? By granting Mr. Morrison his first full term, Australians signaled their reluctance to bet on a new leader, choosing to stay the course with a hardworking rugby lover at a time when the economy has not suffered a recession in nearly 28 years."
The NYT reports.
May 18, 2019
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Maybe the summer brownouts in Victoria from lunatic energy policies played a role. "You can fool some of the people all the time and all of the people some of the time but..."
Australians apparently use my approach to pollsters: I flip a coin for each question. They get no useful info from me.
I remember Nate Silver's column explaining how his election-eve prediction that Clinton had a two-thirds chance of winning was actually correct. There are probably a lot of similar columns being written in Australia today.
The Left has been yelling louder and with more hyperbole because they think we just aren't listening.
But we hear you. We've even been taking notes and joting down names.
2020 is going to come at you as 2016 did.. Like a stone cold Marine in stealth.
We hear you. We just don't have a middle option between tolerating your bullshit and killing every last one of you motherfuckers.
Soon.
It's fun that the crazy Liberals are still trusting the polls. Years before brexit and Trump Victory they quit being reliable. Except these people are so stupid they can't notice the trend. When they try to shut up conservatives the conservatives get quiet but they still vote. Their next thing is to do away with secret ballot. Just watch it's coming
It looks like the Australian media, and the politicians, don't have clue on what the citizens perceive, or want. If they'd spent a little time actually living with those they usually ignore, they'd realize the citizens are fully aware of the subterfuge, and willingness to suppress liberty for personal power, or wealth.
Tom T. said...
I remember Nate Silver's column explaining how his election-eve prediction that Clinton had a two-thirds chance of winning was actually correct
Don't let our Life Long Liberal hear you say that!
He'll "explain" that 'polls are actually ALWAYS correct, and that Hillary is actually our President'
Reason # 3,298 to not trust what pollsters tell you, let alone the news media.
Harbinger? My, what a big vocabulary you have Grandma.
A conservation of principles is the harbinger of leaving the twilight fringe and heralds the dawn of a new age.
Either the pollsters' methodology is flawed or a lot of conservatives are lying to them.
I was just now reading some of the twitter pages covering this. Amazing. Aussie lefties are actually blaming Russia. To top it off, they are 'blocking' anyone that doesn't agree because they are surely Russian bots.
It blows my mind.
"Harbinger? My, what a big vocabulary you have Grandma."
Yah. Harbinger usually comes with his good friends Of, The and Apocalypse.
No bias there lol
For all of the Trump acolytes, every swallow is a spring
People are getting Woke.
"I was just now reading some of the twitter pages covering this. Amazing. Aussie lefties are actually blaming Russia."
That's funny.
Of course, on a more serious level it's not. Insanity is dangerous.
It used to be that elections in a bellwether state like Ohio would have national implications. Now we are looking to...Australia??
Australia UK Israel even Holland is more aware
Poor Howard. Still hoping for a taste of success.
Unfortunately, the only country that follows Australia is New Zealand.
I just read this in the Guardian:
Almost 73% of the vote has been counted and counting will resume Sunday.
What the hell, Australasia? Get a move one. Who do you think you are, California?
Conservative success is branded as "unexpected" while that term is repeatedly favored for liberal failures.
Oddly enough, many quiet Australians understand, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." Most of the Australians I've known (admittedly a small sample of a dozen or so) are very practical people.
Our friend Achilles for over two years has been talking about "globalists" and the backlash to them.
Roughly speaking, "Globalists" care less about the country in which they live and more about United Nations treaties, World Health Organization proclamations, The Hague, the IPCC, expanding NATO to include such powerhouses as Romania and Finland, and, worst of all, unfettered illegal immigration.
Myself, I care more about the good 'ole USA, it's culture and traditions than any of these globalist entities and objectives.
I don't know the political dynamics of Australia well enough to intelligently opine on any connections to Trump in 2020, but I'm willing to bet that the Aussies too got sick of the globalists there expressed such discontent in the voting booths.
This was the opening paragraph on yahoo:
Australia's Liberal-led conservative government was headed for a remarkable win at the national election early on Sunday after uncovering a narrow path to victory that twisted through urban fringes and rural townships.
Uncovering a narrow path to victory. There were other lols in the article, too.
Coal country. Go figure.
If you like telling people what to do and what/how to think, you might be Labour, Democrat, globalist.
Possibly this contributed -
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7039783/Israel-Folau-SACKED.html
Israel Folau is a Tongan immigrant to Australia, and like many Pacific islander immigrants he is an Evangelical Christian. He is also the greatest player Australian rugby has ever had. His sacking for PC reasons is extremely unpopular with rugby fans and with Pacific islanders, where it seems he is a sort of folk hero.
Its possible the considerable rugby fan and Pacific islander populations were inspired to send a message.
Coal country. Go figure.
It was pointed out recently, probably on Quilette, that China is burning Australian coal while Victoria was having summer brownouts relying on wind and solar. Summer in Australia can be like summer in Tucson,
or choose greater action on climate change and income inequality?
The climate change hoaxers badly overplayed their hand. And Aussies, like the American working classes and middle classes, correctly perceive that “income inequality” is code for “take from people who work hard for a living and give to (1) the lazy (like Robert Cook), plus (2) the already filthy rich.
Trump is Australian?
Blogger Howard said...
For all of the Trump acolytes, every swallow is a spring
Did Kamala swallow?
Howard, we have you down for silk not hemp, right?
"...or choose greater action on climate change and income inequality"
Greater "action" on climate change will virtually guarantee greater income inequality, while accomplishing absolutely nothing measurable with regard to The Climate. Interestingly, both left and right know this, but the left treats this as something to be desired.
Either the pollsters' methodology is flawed or a lot of conservatives are lying to them.
My retired Mother, bless her heart, has a circle of sewing friends. They are organized like an Oppo Research Team. When the pollsters call they deliberately mislead them because "we don't want to give those damn Marxists any intel".
"Maybe the summer brownouts in Victoria from lunatic energy policies played a role."
Probably did. They're having problems (quelle surprise) and Aussies are less tolerant of stupidity than we are.
1600 comments on Catallaxy files today and going on up.
I remember when Kevin Rudd was PM and he backed off the crazy stuff the left had been advocating. Then he lost out to the crazies.
Rudd made climate change a centrepiece of his administration, calling it the “greatest moral challenge of our generation” and pushing for adoption of a carbon emissions trading scheme. He negotiated a deal with Malcolm Turnbull of the opposition Liberal Party of Australia to secure passage of the bill in the Senate.
Note that Shorten gracefully conceded.
"...or choose greater action on climate change and income inequality"
The left's prescriptions to fix "income inequality" are even more ineffectual than their policies to fix climate change.
On facebook, one of my friends in rural Queensland posted about some political scandal a few days ago. I believe she and her husband mostly vote conservative. They are ranchers. But Aussie politics can get unpredictable. I didn't click on the news story, so don't know details but it was particular to Australia.
I wouldn't extrapolate too much from Aussie politics to anywhere else.
Either the pollsters' methodology is flawed or a lot of conservatives are lying to them
Polls, all polls* used in the media, are commissioned to drive a pre-determined narrative.
*internal polling bought by candidates running for office or more accurate. Not perfect.
I wouldn't extrapolate too much from Aussie politics to anywhere else.
Good advice.
If you had told me the Aussie's would have graciously turned in their guns, I would have begged for the phone number of your weed dealer.
The left's prescriptions to fix "income inequality" are even more ineffectual
I have yet to see a proposal to "fix" income inequality. Only the claim it is some sort of problem. Never a solution.
Fen: I want to be just like your mother when I am retired!
I heard Mueller and his team have purchased tickets to Sydney. Those wily Russians have struck again!
"Unexpectedly!"
Conservatives are lying to the pollsters more than the progressives are- that's what is making polling inaccurate. It probably doesn't take more than a 2-3% bias in that sort of thing to skew the accuracy very badly. I lie to every pollster that calls in which I answer the phone- I have done it a total of four times now over the last 6 years. Once during the 2016 election, twice during the 2018 TN senate election, and once in what was probably a Gallup presidential approval poll in 2013.
Labor has 'lost the unlosable election'
Former Labor senator Sam Dastyari, who remains close with many in the party, described "panic stations" at Labor Party headquarters as the results came in.
"I think the Labor Party looks as if it may have lost the unlosable election," he said.
Polls infer intent and beliefs from a sample population with an assumption/assertion of human diversity (e.g. color blocs).
"I heard Mueller and his team have purchased tickets to Sydney."
I recommend they stay down in The Rocks.
Israel Folau is SACKED
Anti-transgender/homosexual or pro-heterosexual?
Most people will go to Hell, including, but not limited to, the transgendered. However, Hell is not the end, but an opportunity for repentance and reconciliation. It is a way station to a steady state, and Earth is our first stop. Or so our ancestors claim (i.e. myth).
"Australians apparently use my approach to pollsters: I flip a coin for each question. They get no useful info from me."
Why be so asinine? Either tell them you do not want to answer their poll, or, if you agree to do so, answer honestly.
I guess this shows that, if it was the "Silent Majority" who elected Nixon, it was the "Infantile Electoral Majority" who elected Trump. (The "Self-Deluded Popular Majority" voted for Hillary.)
With Kamala Harris and Brown Willy I'm envisioning a spittoon
and like many Pacific islander immigrants he is an Evangelical Christian
Separation of Church and State... of Mosque and State, of Synagogue and State, of Temple and State, of Chamber and State, of Brothel and State, of Couch and State. I wonder how many people would welcome a pure separation of logical domains.
Well Fen, there's not a whole lot of options left since you own hair shirt
I wouldn't extrapolate too much from Aussie politics to anywhere else.
Maybe not, but in Australia, America, the U.K., and certain other countries in Europe there seems to be a push-back against the craziness of the self-proclaimed “elites.” Something is happening.
Howard: Well Fen, there's not a whole lot of options left since you own hair shirt
No worries. I would rather let you stew in your own hell awhile longer. No mercy kills.
Ivanka 2028!
Four More Years!
"The Left has been yelling louder and with more hyperbole because they think we just aren't listening."
But we hear you.
Don't flatter yourself. The so-called "left" (sic) are not talking to you; they're talking to themselves.y
"We've even been taking notes and jotting down names.
2020 is going to come at you as 2016 did.. Like a stone cold Marine in stealth.
We hear you. We just don't have a middle option between tolerating your bullshit and killing every last one of you motherfuckers.
Soon."
Did you have an orgasm as you typed this?
Herman Wouk just died- I didn't even know he had still been alive
Robert,
I lie to them because I think a lot of the polling organizations are liars themselves- they aren't trying to get a feel for what might happen, they are trying to shape what happens. I am working to discredit them by making their jobs harder.
"Israel Folau ... sacking for PC reasons"
On a related note, I think it would be cool for Mayor Pete Butt-eggs to be the Dem. candidate, if only to witness a Democratic candidate for President get essentially zero percent of the black vote.
So I chased this story down the rabbit hole, through the cuck shed at Powerline and ended up at a paywall at WaPo.
Dear Henry Olsen,
Maybe your piece Australian Conservatives Face Their Own Trumpian Uprising had some great brainwashing propaganda, maybe not. We'll never know because you think you are better than the 20 million other "thought leaders" who don't put their drek behind a paywall.
Cook: Did you have an orgasm as you typed this?
No, but let me ask your daughter.
"Why be so asinine? Either tell them you do not want to answer their poll, or, if you agree to do so, answer honestly."
Because the left wing media do not use polling in the pursuit of honest journalism, but rather as a tool to affect the elections results. Counter tactics are appropriate.
The NY Times declares:
Scott Morrison, Australia’s conservative prime minister, scored a surprise victory in federal elections on Saturday, propelled by a populist wave — the “quiet Australians,” he termed it — resembling the force that has upended politics in the United States, Britain and beyond.
So if Scott Morrison is conservative, no populism movement would likely have arisen to support him. In Trump's case,
J.W Cobb writes:
It is tempting to come to the conclusion that since populism is what won we should reject conservatism in favor of it. The People don’t want trade and free markets. They want protectionism. The People don’t want American leadership in the world. They don’t want to welcome new people to America. They want to shut us off from the world.
That - and lots of Trump lies, and illegally obtained help from our foreign enemies and a hated Democratic candidate, won the 2016 election for Trump. Trump has no personal beliefs. He’s a conman who identified his mark - and he scammed Trumpists by declaring that he would build the wall and drain the swamp - which now has far more alligators than anyone could have ever imagined.
"I lie to them because I think a lot of the polling organizations are liars themselves- they aren't trying to get a feel for what might happen, they are trying to shape what happens. I am working to discredit them by making their jobs harder."
This statement is self-serving and stupid. How do know they aren't trying to obtain accurate data in order to produce an accurate snapshot of public opinion? If half of your fellow citizens behave this childishly, who is to blame for inaccurate poll results? The pollsters or half-wits who purposely lied to fuck up the results?
"Conservatives are lying to the pollsters more than the progressives are- that's what is making polling inaccurate. It probably doesn't take more than a 2-3% bias in that sort of thing to skew the accuracy very badly. I lie to every pollster that calls in which I answer the phone- I have done it a total of four times now over the last 6 years. Once during the 2016 election, twice during the 2018 TN senate election, and once in what was probably a Gallup presidential approval poll in 2013."
Speak lies to power, bruthah!
"I wouldn't extrapolate too much from Aussie politics to anywhere else."
I sure as hell would.
Same policies, same rhetoric, same players pulling the strings.
Did you know Labor teamed with the Greens and dubbed this the "Climate Change Election"?
Soros affiliated globalists are world wide in the "free World". A lefty in Melbourne spews the same propaganda, word for word, as one in Toronto.
I think we should group gadfly with h8ers.
"No, but let me ask your daughter."
Now this is just stupid and nonsensical, (not to mention factually ignorant).
On a related note, I think it would be cool for Mayor Pete Butt-eggs to be the Dem. candidate, if only to witness a Democratic candidate for President get essentially zero percent of the black vote.
Apparently Buttigieg's relationship with the black community in South Bend is not all that solid. And blacks talk to other blacks.
I can picture Trump going before black communities and reminding them that his policies brought black people jobs while Buttigieg's policies resulting in tearing down their homes.
and illegally obtained help from our foreign enemies
I didn’t know Trump’s campaign took the security off credit card donations so foreign donations weren’t tracked. That was Obama
That - and lots of Trump lies, and illegally obtained help from our foreign enemies and a hated Democratic candidate, won the 2016 election for Trump.
gadfly, I am just warning you that a crazy person has apparently hacked into your account. You should check into that immediately,. You would not want to be taken for an idiot, now would you?
"Note that Shorten gracefully conceded."
No vote harvesting. No race baiting. No Stacey Abrams shenanigans. In other words, a civilized country. But with compulsory voting.
"How do know they aren't trying to obtain accurate data in order to produce an accurate snapshot of public opinion?"
When several polls showed Hillary ahead by 10% in late October of 2016, Robert, I knew they were likely lying. The alternative is they are incompetent. I have no interest in helping the ones who do try to catch an accurate sample because I have no way of determining who that is that is calling me. On balance, there are few honest pollsters publishing polls- they all serve the people paying for the polls. I am a monkey wrench.
What public good does polling serve?
Nations politics map to each other more or less well, never perfectly.
I have fairly closely followed politics in three countries besides the US - Australia (where the largest concentration of my relatives are, and where I might have fetched up @35 years ago, on what amounted to an overnight decision), Spain and the Philippines.
All have had national elections this year, within a space of three weeks.
Australia has always been the closest map to US politics, in issues, ideology, tribal structure and culture. You can take Australian political arguments and personalities and they can, usually, be only slightly translated to make sense in a US context. This stuff is never perfect, Australia for instance doesn't have quite the immigration pressure as the US, its not a superpower with global reach, many desiderata of the US left like nationalized medical care was established decades ago, its a small country with less at stake, etc.
Spain is not a good map to the US, though the ideological split is comparable in general terms. But the cultural map is very different. There you have regions that feel like nations of their own. Much of American political desiderata of the left has long since been achieved, almost all by the "right", back under the dictatorship. There isn't much in public policy the left can ask for, practically speaking. In truth the arguments are more cultural than substansive, and any substance is usually about the public reacting against official misbehavior. The left won, on April 28, against the traditional right that was suffering from corruption scandals. Much like the right had won against left corruption scandals in previous elections. And the left against right corruption scandals before that.
Philippine politics has almost no relation to US politics at all. The populist "right" won a smashing victory in Congressional and Senatorial elections on May 13.
There is a definite class-caste factor in this, that to a degree maps to the Trumpian "deplorable" coalition, but in the Philippine case this takes in the entire lower class as well. The US argument is between the Democratic party Hi-Lo urban mix vs the Trumpian-Republican middle and hinterlands, there it is the Lo-Mid and hinterlands vs the Hi-mid center. The disparity in numbers makes the outcome inevitable. And western conceptions of political ideology are nearly irrelevant.
No public good, Mike. I have answered enough of these over the years to understand the purpose- it is to produce a predetermined result. You can see this in polls of politically contentious issues- the questions are always asked in ways that attempt to push the answer one way or the other. For example, I once answered a poll about gay marriage (this would have been in the early 2000s- an honest poll question would be- "Do you support gay marriage?" The answer is either yes or no, and the question is neutral. However, the question I was asked was "Do you think the Religious Right should be allowed to prevent gays from marrying?"
There's too much credentialism with the boomers, so it is always pleasant to see the experts humiliated. They often don't do better than 50/50--flipping a coin, or asking your cat to walk across the Ouija board. The only thing sweeter is when the experts also have their hopes dashed. The cat walks across, gives the wrong answer, and then dies of a heart attack.
Election night 2016, CNN, starting about 4:50. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQS76aJw9Qs
"By granting Mr. Morrison his first full term, Australians signaled their reluctance to bet on a new leader, choosing to stay the course with a hardworking rugby lover at a time when the economy has not suffered a recession in nearly 28 years."
What is the source for 'reluctance'? Poll question? Exit poll? Wishful thinking?
Israel Folau is SACKED
And the complaint is that his post was homophobic. Why is there no thought for the lying, thieving, drunkard, fornicating atheists who might also be offended?
"When several polls showed Hillary ahead by 10% in late October of 2016, Robert, I knew they were likely lying. The alternative is they are incompetent."
Or people like you were lying to them, creating, thereby, a self-fulfilling prophecy.
YOU (and your ilk) are the cause of inaccurate polls.
Robert Cook said...
"I lie to them because I think a lot of the polling organizations are liars themselves- they aren't trying to get a feel for what might happen, they are trying to shape what happens. I am working to discredit them by making their jobs harder."
This statement is self-serving and stupid. How do know they aren't trying to obtain accurate data in order to produce an accurate snapshot of public opinion? If half of your fellow citizens behave this childishly, who is to blame for inaccurate poll results? The pollsters or half-wits who purposely lied to fuck up the results?
*********************
How about "it's none of their fucking business" trumps the polyannish claim that "they're trying to obtain accurate data"?
Robert Cook said...
"When several polls showed Hillary ahead by 10% in late October of 2016, Robert, I knew they were likely lying. The alternative is they are incompetent."
Or people like you were lying to them, creating, thereby, a self-fulfilling prophecy.
YOU (and your ilk) are the cause of inaccurate polls.
Ahem.... a truly scientific poll would be able to account for false responses. Just saying.
"YOU (and your ilk) are the cause of inaccurate polls."
Seems unlikely there are enough people lying to pollsters for this to be true but if so, what of it? The media use polls as a tool to affect elections and a crutch to avoid substantive journalism. It's polls, polls, polls 24/7. I'm sick of them.
Robert, that thse same polls the narrowed the last week should tell you something, but I suspect it won't.
Poll failure is at least partly the result of cultural hegemony causing subversive behavior in a large fraction of the people.
This cultural hegemony thing is a very left-wing concept, one of the useful ideas the left has come up with. It was a big deal in those circles for decades. Unfortunately for most of them, argumentatively, its become unfashionable since its become clear even to the left that the cultural hegemony situation has completely flipped.
You know a concept is valid when you can turn it about and it works just as well.
Let me try this from another direction, Robert- how would you explain the different polls on the same question having such vastly different results on sampling done at the same time? You basically have two choices- either the polling error ranges are much larger than stated by each pollster, or the pollsters are fixing the results in some manner. My or other's lies to the pollsters can't explain this issue.
Uncomfortable truths:
Australia has a per capita GDP just a few points lower than the US.
Australia is 85% white.
Australia works very hard to prevent illegal immigration from the nations that border it.
In late October of 2016, there were polls with samples taken at the same time that ranged from Clinton 10% +/-3% ahead, to Trump being ahead 3% +/-3% ahead.
Some pollsters were incompetent and/or lying.
My goal is simple- make polls as untrustworthy as I possibly can- if no one trusts them, then they don't matter any longer.
The only poll that I respond to, is the one that I give myself. I don't give a shit what others think, and you shouldn't either.
More of the samizdat:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1129445675173863424.html
Candidates have an interest in polling and the means to do their own. When it comes to the public, I fail to see what need is served. In fact, on net, they seem to be a negative, potentially adversely affecting voting results.
Harbinger
They cant come to any other conclusion:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MattDoran91/status/1129713659851075586?s=04&fbclid=IwAR3HMS2OpK43FljhHVaGsfZpevNcggwYUnEBIuqhoy6DHFK8B5KXiiQDxbE
In regards to lying to pollsters - keep in mind that mind that Crooked Hillary went into election night believing that she was going to win despite having barely campaigned in some of her Blue Wall states. Blue Wall states that decidedly broke for Trump. With the billion dollar war chest she had to work with, it is hard to believe that they weren’t polling the heck out of those states, and not just the highly weighted polls that the MSM were running to push the inevitability of her ascension, but real polls, the best that money can buy. One can always wonder the effect that her concentrating on these crumbling Blue Wall states in the waning days of her campaign, instead of spending it in bicoastal fund raising, might have won the Presidency for her. And you can also wonder whether insurgents lying to her pollsters helped misdirect her energies the last several months before her loss the chances of that are high enough that I expect that if I ever answer a call for a poll, I too will lie my ass off.
"Israel Folau is SACKED"
By woman President. Why would a RUGBY organization have a female president. That's even weirder.
Polling inaccuracies don't require lying respondents, merely a difference in response rates between left and right. Lefties appear to have a greater predilection to telling others what they think. Last election cycle I made the mistake of answering (truthfully) a couple of polls and all of a sudden I was inundated with polls. I stopped responding.
I wouldn't extrapolate too much from Aussie politics to anywhere else.
I'd agree. But we know damn well if the leftist candidate won, it would be above the fold in every US major daily about how it was bad news for Trump.
As goes New South Wales, so goes northeastern West Virginia.
People are lying so they don’t get swatted or othered or banished via SM.
Blogger Robert Cook said...
"Australians apparently use my approach to pollsters: I flip a coin for each question. They get no useful info from me."
Why be so asinine? Either tell them you do not want to answer their poll, or, if you agree to do so, answer honestly.
Because the pollsters are enemies of decent Americans, so helping them is wrong.
And honest answers help them
France is being Yellow-jacketed. Brexit. Trump. Ozland.
Deplorables are getting fed up.
And it seems even Duerete is working with our armed forces because there’s trouble down there.
Bruce Hayden said...
In regards to lying to pollsters - keep in mind that mind that Crooked Hillary went into election night believing that she was going to win despite having barely campaigned in some of her Blue Wall states. Blue Wall states that decidedly broke for Trump. With the billion dollar war chest she had to work with, it is hard to believe that they weren’t polling the heck out of those states, and not just the highly weighted polls that the MSM were running to push the inevitability of her ascension, but real polls, the best that money can buy. One can always wonder the effect that her concentrating on these crumbling Blue Wall states in the waning days of her campaign, instead of spending it in bicoastal fund raising, might have won the Presidency for her. And you can also wonder whether insurgents lying to her pollsters helped misdirect her energies the last several months before her loss the chances of that are high enough that I expect that if I ever answer a call for a poll, I too will lie my ass off.
\I think you are overstimating the competence of the Clinton team. I haven't read anything saying that they were polling those States.
What I've read is that they were positive they had those States in the bag, and so weren't doing anything there. This came from people who, post election, were claiming they had really pushed for the Clinton camp to focus there. So it could be CYA BS.
But, it might alsop be true
Bay Area Guy said...
I don't know the political dynamics of Australia well enough to intelligently opine on any connections to Trump in 2020, but I'm willing to bet that the Aussies too got sick of the globalists there expressed such discontent in the voting booths.
The Yellow Jackets in France have little in common with Trump supporters ideologically. But they are the same working/middle class people. Australia has a similar dynamic. England. Brazil. Italy. Poland. Hungary. Israel.
All of the middle class people in these countries are very different.
But they have the same enemy.
There is a group of wealthy people who see themselves above country and above the little people. They used to own the Republican and the Democrat party. Now we have Trump, 5 Star, Bolsonaro, Duerte etc.
As the US leads the world the leaders in these countries are following Trump. Trump actually cares about the people he represents and does what he said he would do in the election.
The EU is the king pin here. When the EU falls the globalists lose their last remaining bastion of power. They are caught between Trump and China and Putin.
The EU will fall.
The media in all of these countries is owned by the same people that own the media in the US.
They have the same headlines all over the world.
The reason why is obvious. The media all around the world is just a propaganda arm of hte wealthy globalist elite.
I have yet to be honest with a political pollster.
I'm kind of a dick that way.
"Because the pollsters are enemies of decent Americans, so helping them is wrong."
Sez who? How are pollsters enemies of decent Americans? Who or what are "decent" Americans?
"How about 'it's none of their fucking business' trumps the polyannish claim that 'they're trying to obtain accurate data'?"
So, as I said in my first comment, tell them you do not want to answer their survey. Hang up. Answering their questions with lies distorts the results, the very distortions you and your ilk claim are why you hate polls.
Robert - I really was interested in your response to my question. What public good does polling serve?
"Uncomfortable truths:
Australia has a per capita GDP just a few points lower than the US.
Australia is 85% white.
Australia works very hard to prevent illegal immigration from the nations that border it."
And Australia also treats its indigenous/black (a twofer!) population like shit.
"I think you are overstimating the competence of the Clinton team. I haven't read anything saying that they were polling those States."
I'm sure they polled Wisconsin. But yeah to the incompetence. Hillary is a bad manager; one of the reasons she would have made a bad President & one of the reasons she lost in 2007/8 to Obama.
I wouldn't expect the reputable pollsters to miss again. Good analysts reevaluate the evidence and recalculate. They got 2018 right; Nate Cohn's live polls were fun for those who who likes numbers, stats or polling. & it showed you how a n=250 poll could be worthless.
"Robert - I really was interested in your response to my question. What public good does polling serve?"
That depends, I suppose, on what the poll is about and what its purpose is.
Is it necessary that we have polls showing who is up or down in public favor? I can't think of any compelling reason, no. Is it valuable that we have an indicator of public opinion on public issues of moment, (the economy, the wars, local/state/federal policies, etc.). I think so, yes.
I could have gotten 2018 right. Hate motivates.
What public good does polling serve?
I dunno if it serves a public good. But there have been a LOT of posts on this blog about the D primary and polls for months now. I keep saying it's too soon for polls to be worth too much. So I guess it gives people something to talk about.
btw there are too many crappy polls w/ bad methodology. Only look at the good ones. Garbage in, garbage out.
Robert Cook said...
"Robert - I really was interested in your response to my question. What public good does polling serve?"
Is it valuable that we have an indicator of public opinion on public issues of moment, (the economy, the wars, local/state/federal policies, etc.). I think so, yes.
Wrong. Politicians would tun on whatever they're going to do, then do it if they win.
There's no public benefit to weathervane politicians
"And Australia also treats its indigenous/black (a twofer!) population like shit."
I don't think that's right. I go to Australia a lot. They used to treat their indigenous population like shit, just like we did. Now, just like us, they're placed on a pedestal.
"Is it valuable that we have an indicator of public opinion on public issues of moment, (the economy, the wars, local/state/federal policies, etc.). I think so, yes."
I don't think these are the ones people lie about.
Robert Cook said...
"Because the pollsters are enemies of decent Americans, so helping them is wrong."
Sez who? How are pollsters enemies of decent Americans? Who or what are "decent" Americans?
The Americans opposed to you, and what you desire, are the decent Americans
"But there have been a LOT of posts on this blog about the D primary and polls for months now."
Althouse likes polls. It's her blog.
"And Australia also treats its indigenous/black (a twofer!) population like shit."
Like every other country on the face of the earth? Including the ones run by poor non-whites?
You have nothing to say, Robert Cook. Your thoughts on these and other matters are irrelevant, and you have made them so.
Australians are, socially, quite different from Americans. Their humour is more dry and self-deprecating. They are more republican, but they still call Elizabeth "my Queen."
1) They don't argue as much. Americans are really out there with the constant political-cultural arguments.
2) They HATE tall poppies. No boasting of success. They have contempt for that behaviour. Americans are not like that. Americans are comfortable with tall poppy syndrome.
By more republican, I mean more then the other commonwealth nations.
I have never had a pollster call me and I don’t know if I would answer the questions honestly or not. But living in a small town I in CT my own polling observed that there were virtually no Trump yard signs or bumper stickers. People were afraid their houses or cars would be vandalized or they would be targeted by the crazed left.
But very quietly, the Trump vote came out and cast their ballots. CT Went Blue anyway, it always does these days.. Sanctuary cities have made sure the votes are there to get the Dems. In office. But I was surprised by how many people in my town later admitted they voted for Trump after he won. They were as pleasantly surprised as I was to hear that we weren’t alone. Thank God enough people in the “swing states and blue states” came out and drove the electoral college in the right direction. Hope we can manage to do this again in 2020. Texas and Florida are crucial with so many American-Hispanics moving to these red states, who knows what will happen. Broward and Palm Beach Counties are outwardly corrupt they can have votes materialize from coat closes, trunks of cars, etc. always checking the Dems. Boxes.
Pollsters are not to be trusted, they hope to suppress the vote by telling us that the Dem. candidate will win. So, don’t bother wasting your time voting Republican, stay home and watch the results on TV to see how right the pollsters are.
Not aware in the least:
https://michaelantonio.biz/2019/05/17/pete-buttigieg-erasing-thomas-jeffersons-name-right-thing-to-do/?fbclid=IwAR1l7czZZgodhfwn1Wmc8i-KJLOQRNhCqdI2ZhcEm_yw9e89zoVh9fRTouE
Good on ya, mates!
Labor's argument was that Australia produces 3% of the world's greenhouse gasses, and that already small amount could be reduced by a small amount if Australians embraced poverty and diminished expectations.
Not exactly a winning message.
"The Americans opposed to you, and what you desire, are the decent Americans."
That doesn't answer the question. After all, there could be many Americans opposed to me and what I desire who also are opposed to each other. Also, it doesn't define the concept of "decency." What is decent? What is indecent? Why?
I bet that treating aboriginals like shit is the key to Australia’s strong economy.
What is decent?
It’s only decent to abandon ideologies that have lead to the deaths of hundreds of millions in the past century. At some point, a decent person would ask themselves “Why does this keep fucking up and leading to totalitarian dictatorships?"
Awesome. Another thread on which Robert Cook types obviously stupid things and wwww types things she thinks are profound but are really bull shit. The internet is fun that way.
Polls are designed to shape opinion and not to measure it. And the polls are, thankfully, wildly wrong at almost every turn. Fuck the pollsters and their polls.
I have to say that my ability to summarize a thread is unparalleled and you all are welcome.
they did manage to knock off fraser anning and fmr. prime minister tony abbott, If I got that right,
I don't get it. Globos impoverish the people of their own nation on behalf of the Globos. Yet people vote against them. Why are people against being poor?
Instapundit linked to this assessment of the Australian election by an Aussie political analyst. Some of the the takeaways:
6. "The Australian Labor Party ran on higher taxes, higher spending, more regulations, and destroying our economy with carbon taxes. This was – for the first time in over two decades – a clear election, a clear choice about ideology and the future of Australia. And despite all the polls, despite the left outspending the right by millions, the Australian people did what no one expected and rejected the odious big government narrative. This is huge.”
11. The opinion polls – up to and including the exit polls – simply did not pick what happened last night. There will be a lot of justified questions being asked in the near future about what went wrong and to what extent polls are reliable any more as a barometer of the popular opinion.
12. At the same time, something has clearly shifted across the electorate in the last few days of the campaign. Possibly some of the undecideds simply couldn’t overcome their doubts about Shorten and his agenda. The government wasn’t loved but it wasn’t loathed enough to balance the fears about what Labor might do to Australia again, particularly under an unlikable and unprincipled leader.
16. There will be no doubt many debates in the future as to why the right of centre voters are increasingly “shy”, but there is no doubt that the phenomenon is real. I can’t speak about the opinion polling, but I saw it very clearly on the election day itself. Judging by the demeanor of voters and their reactions while confronted with party workers handing out “how to vote cards”, I would have guessed that Labor and the Greens took three quarters of the vote on my polling booth. But when we actually counted the votes, the two-party-preferred vote between the Liberals (or the LNP) and Labor was less than 12 votes of 2000 cast. The only reason why I didn’t despair during the day was because I have seen exactly the same phenomenon three years prior.
18. Tony Abbott, on the other hand, said in his concession speech that he prefers to be a loser rather than a quitter. As he is entitled to, but I respectfully disagree. We need more quitters in politics. People need to know when their time is up, but very few have the strength of character to achieve a good dismount.
24. Lastly, let’s remember that no matter how annoying our political system often gets, there are many people around the world who would give their left testicle (or ovary) to be able to choose the people who will disappoint them in government.
Awesome. Another thread on which Robert Cook types obviously stupid things and wwww types things she thinks are profound but are really bull shit. The internet is fun that way.
LOL what got you so cranky? I talk about my rancher friends in Queensland or Aussie tall poppy syndrome and you become Mr. Cranky Pants. Life is beautiful dude try not to let small stuff get you in such a bad mood.
But very quietly, the Trump vote came out and cast their ballots. CT Went Blue anyway, it always does these days.
With so many blue states agreeing to give their electoral votes to whoever wins the popular vote, expect the RNC to get out the GOP vote in deep blue states. Thus a blue state may, to the tune of much gnashing of teeth and rending of garments, give its electoral votes to Trump in 2020.
Context:
https://twitter.com/mrobertsqld/status/1129909831509262337?s=21
Big Mike: very few have the strength of character to achieve a good dismount.
(Haha, I'm stealing that line)
Look! Over there! Squirrel!
(steals line)
"With so many blue states agreeing to give their electoral votes to whoever wins the popular vote, "
What Does that mean ... Network won't be able to call these States for any candidate until when?
@Fen, not my line, bro. Steal away. Follow the link; there’s lots of good stuff in that article.
Polls: And it's Hillary in a landslide! Polls are largely controlled by the looney left trying to push their lefty narrative. They can go to hell.
@Fen, not my line, bro.
Yah my bad, didn't see that until after I hit enter.
Here in Texas we've been Republican controlled statewide for so long a significant number of state legislators now act like Democrats used to, as if entitled to their offices. That's going to make their ouster from office, for losing sight of their fundamental duty to minimize government bureaucracy and spending, all the more painful. Not because they will not know why they lost, but because the Dems who replace them will make even the recent Republicans look parsimonious and rights-crazy in comparison.
I, for one, don't look forward to the end of semi-conservative rule in Texas, or Australia, or anywhere. Because the alternative is apparently complete insanity and leftist totalitarian authority stomping on everyone in sight.
Um, kids, the "Compact" doesn't go into effect until states with 270 votes have signed up.
IOW, until never
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