April 15, 2019

The new Emerson poll has Bernie ahead of Biden and Buttigieg in third.



Details here.
Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, said “while still early in the nominating process, it looks like Mayor Pete is the candidate capturing voters’ imagination; the numbers had him at 0% in mid-February, 3% in March and now at 9% in April.”

Kimball also noted that “Biden has seen his support drop. In February, he led Sanders 27% to 17%, and in March the two were tied at 26%. Now, Sanders has a 5 point lead, 29% to 24%.”
Also, on the issues: "47% of voters support building a wall on the US-Mexico Border, 45% oppose, 8% are undecided."

81 comments:

Fen said...

Just saw this. Too early to be useful. And the polls were trash the night before Orange Man turned Hillary into a shrieking harridan.

But I am surprised to see Harris polling in the single digits. Hmmm.

Michael K said...

All those white guys. Have to put a stop to that!

Fen said...

Claim: Harris polling in the single digits.
False: Margin of error is 5.2%, two significant digits, therefore Harris polls at 8.0%


Damnit Chuck, okay you busted me telling a Big Lie.

Bay Area Guy said...

Bernie will win nomination. Even if Biden runs, Bernie wins the nomination -- too many Dems will splinter the vote, and Bernie's 25 - 30% stays united.

Sebastian said...

So a plurality of Dems prefer a non-Dem.

WisRich said...

Very interesting numbers on Trumps wall. His message is breaking through the MSM wall

mccullough said...

Looks like White Men are the only ones who answer these poll calls.

Old people vote.

mccullough said...

Mayor Pete is doing a good job so far.

Kamala Harris is Jeb! this year.

Fen said...

I meant 8.0%. I'm so ashamed.

I blame Trump for-

(spins wheel)

-weakening our adherence to precision.

Ann Althouse said...

Of the 45% who "oppose" the wall, do they oppose it because they want the flow of illegal immigration to be allowed or do they think a wall is the wrong way (or an ineffective way) to control illegal immigration? I assume most wall opponents are worried about the cost, the environmental impact, and the effectiveness but actually do want the enforcement of immigration law. The 45% disguises the actual opinion about immigration control.

mccullough said...

Biden will want Mayor Pete in the race. He’s taking away some votes for Bernie.

Mayor Pete The Spoiler.

Fen said...

And I'm sorry, but a MOE of 5.2%? Useless.

TJM said...

I guess the Dem Party is misogynistic after all. LOL

mccullough said...

Kamala better have better dirt on Biden.

MeToo is over. It’s Return of the White Guy.

Kevin said...

do they oppose it because they want the flow of illegal immigration to be allowed or do they think a wall is the wrong way (or an ineffective way) to control illegal immigration?

A significant number don't want it because it would give Trump an accomplishment to run on.

It's come to that.

mccullough said...

Biden and Bernie are going to struggle against Mayor Pete.

He’s the fresh face.

The Obama.

Francisco D said...

Biden and Bernie are going to struggle against Mayor Pete. He’s the fresh face. The Obama.

He is the unknown stealth candidate, like Obama. People will feel good voting for the magic gay man.

Nonetheless, I think it will be between Bernie and Kamala, with Bernie winning the nomination and selecting her as VP.

Tune in next week when I have a completely different opinion.

gahrie said...

Hillary is going to enter the race after Labor Day and will be the nominee. She will be labeled the consensus candidate.

Nonapod said...

Biden and Bernie are going to struggle against Mayor Pete.

He’s the fresh face.

The Obama.


Whatever happened to poor Beto? I was assured he was the next Obama. Are his fifteen minutes already up?

bbear said...

It's like that song from the 1966 Broadway musical 'Sweet Charity':

The minute you walked in the joint
I could see you were a man of distinction
A real big spender
Good lookin', so refined
Say, wouldn't you like to know what's goin' on in my mind?

The girls, i.e. pollsters and political consultants, will show this rube a good time and giggle each time he pats them on the butt . . . until the money runs out. And then they will too...

Big Mike said...

First thought: the Iowa caucuses are still 10 months away.

Second thought: has Hillary’s chicanery in securing the 2016 nomination, coupled with the realization of how terrible a candidate she turned out to be, poisoned the efforts of the female candidates to be the 2020 nominee?

gilbar said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
gilbar said...

mccullough said...Looks like White WOMEN are the only ones who answer these poll calls.

fixed it for you!

Fran Waxman said...

I hope I'm wrong, but America is not ready for a black woman president or a gay for that matter. I believe that the polluted environment is making more gay babies, and more black women. I didn't think America was ready for an orange orangutan, but it happen by hook or crook. Never discount the power of right-wing kooks and old cuckolds to give away billions to billionaires as Trump did with his sham tax cut that benefited the rich like himself. Today, tax day, the GOP's shafting of the American middle class is a day that will live in infamy like Pearl Harbor. That means that Trump and the GOP are the equivalent of war criminals. They is no hyperbole in that statement.

Sebastian said...

"I assume most wall opponents . . . actually do want the enforcement of immigration law. The 45% disguises the actual opinion about immigration control."

Well, there are bound to be a few people like that. But how many? Considering that no prominent Dem advocates firm enforcement, presumably they realize that most of their voters do not want enforcement. Of course, even some country-club and chamber-of commerce GOPers don't want it either. So there's been a majority coalition against enforcement since IRCA. Has that changed? I hope Althouse's assumption is correct, but even so the demonization of Trump and deplorable enforcement will make it difficult to act on the wishes of the assumed majority.

Can Of Cheese for Hunter said...

Bernie - a socialist and a government whore. Oh boy.

TJM said...

Ann Althouse,

As we have learned from Pelosi, Cher, and other Dem luminaries, they want the illegal aliens to overwhelm the resources of Red States and allow them to vote, but they certainly don't want them living in their little "paradises." Typical limousine liberals. They have walls, armed guards, but the hoi polloi is not entitled to those protections. The Democratic Party and the media (but I repeat myself) do not want enforcement, if they did, San Francisco juries wouldn't let illegal alien killers off the hook. In New Yawk, the legislature just voted to give illegal aliens college tuition assistance but not the orphans of veterans killed in action. These are sick, sick, people

Fen said...

"Today, tax day, the GOP's shafting of the American middle class is a day that will live in infamy like Pearl Harbor. That means that Trump and the GOP are the equivalent of war criminals. They is no hyperbole in that statement"

0h Inga-Fran, you were in the zone until "war criminals".

Does it sound better in the original Russian?

Remember next time not to oversell. And keep up with current events - even your own NYTs has grudgingly admited the middle class got a tax cut.

But you gave me a fun plot hook: Russian troll farm in Motole accidentally goes to war against Russian troll farm in Pinsk, on an American blog.

Can Of Cheese for Hunter said...

I see a leftwing liar pooped in the pool.

Small Business Owners Push Back Against Mischaracterization of Trump’s Tax Cuts

The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...

"He is the unknown stealth candidate, like Obama. People will feel good voting for the magic gay man."

Gay white man. I don't think the political calculus is quite the same as it was with Obama. Identity politics is so confusing!

traditionalguy said...

Statistics show 70% goes to the top 4, and those are all privileged white men. Ergo: 70% of the Dems are white racists.

StephenFearby said...

Mayor Pete AND Mayor Mike?

"Michael Bloomberg might still run for president in 2020, especially if former Vice President Joe Biden winds up not getting in, according to people who have discussed the matter with the former New York mayor.

Between the lines: These people tell me that Bloomberg, 77, who announced March 5 that he wouldn't run, might reconsider if a centrist lane were to open up. The most likely scenario for that would be if Biden, 76, whose displays of public affection have burst into a major issue, were to stay out or fade fast...."

https://www.axios.com/2020-presidential-election-michael-bloomberg-biden-2e19cd85-975d-43b4-a7ac-b25359b82b82.html

We'll probably find out soon if Biden's sinking Emerson poll number was just an outlier

rcocean said...

I think the polls are primarily reflecting name recognition. Remember: your typical Democrat is a low-information idiot. That's why they're Democrats.

Francisco D said...

Today, tax day, the GOP's shafting of the American middle class is a day that will live in infamy like Pearl Harbor. That means that Trump and the GOP are the equivalent of war criminals. They is no hyperbole in that statement.

Hey Fran,

You just joined Blogger today. I guess Inga and Chuck are not doing their jobs very well.

Have fun.

rcocean said...

"Of the 45% who "oppose" the wall, do they oppose it because they want the flow of illegal immigration to be allowed or do they think a wall is the wrong way (or an ineffective way) to control illegal immigration?"

That's the problem with these kind of questions. First, how you ask the question determines the result. Second, people who don't really know or care about the issue give a response. Third, it hides complexity. How many of the 45% think there's a better way, but couldn't tell you what way was better - or why? People are constantly bombarded by the MSM that a wall is "racist" and "the wrong way to go". But what is the right way, the "right way" that will actually work? I doubt many of the 45% could answer that.

Rick said...

If we accept this characterization "Captured the imagination" and "moribund" are within the margin of error of each other.

So I'll go with wishful thinking.

I assume most wall opponents are worried about the cost, the environmental impact, and the effectiveness but actually do want the enforcement of immigration law.

Sure that's it.

rehajm said...

The DNC didn’t change the rules enough for the unwashed to actually pick. Eventually this will be spun and quashed. Bernie fans will bitch and moan then fall in line.

robother said...

" I assume most wall opponents are worried about the cost, the environmental impact, and the effectiveness but actually do want the enforcement of immigration law."

A charitable reading, that. I suspect it is rather like the support for gay civil unions, rather than gay marriage. As with their leaders, Democrats want the benefit of a charitable reading before they get control of the levers of power, but once there, its Katy bar the door (in this case for open borders defacto.)

RK said...

People in Mexico City have a lot of experience keeping Mexicans out of places. There's a lot razor wire and electrified fencing. We should consult them before spending billions on some kind of a "wall".

Michael K said...

I believe that the polluted environment is making more gay babies, and more black women.

Inga, is your county that polluted ?

The crazy is strong in this one.

Rabel said...

“while still early in the nominating process, it looks like Mayor Pete is the candidate capturing voters’ imagination"

32. That's how many people said they would be likely to support Mayor Pete in the Emerson poll.

Lawrence Person said...

Included in the latest clown car roundup.

Castro and Gillibrand are doing poorly...

Rabel said...

Two thirds of the responses came from automated voice response robocalls to landlines and the other third came from paid volunteers through the Amazon Turk system.

Truly, Emerson has its finger on the pulse of the American electorate.

This poll belongs in the trash bucket.

Earnest Prole said...

Bernie is the sole Democrat who has expressed reservations about wide-open borders.

Pianoman said...

Fran can't be Inga. There's no copy/paste in her post.

Also -- Inga isn't crazy enough to claim that pollution leads to Ghey.

Fernandinande said...

This is so exciting! Only 568 days until the election!

Inga...Allie Oop said...

“I believe that the polluted environment is making more gay babies, and more black women.

Inga, is your county that polluted ?”

WTF are you addressing me for, you senile loon. If you and your buddy Fen are going to think every new commenter is me, why don’t you ask Althouse to compare IP addresses if you’re so concerned? It’s a sad statement that my presence causes you so much anxiety that you imagine everyone is me.

Michael K said...

It’s a sad statement that my presence causes you so much anxiety that you imagine everyone is me.

I just post these jokes to see how dense and humorless you can be, "Fran" has a date on Blogger of April 2019. Hmm

Inga...Allie Oop said...

“I just post these jokes to see how dense and humorless you can be, "Fran" has a date on Blogger of April 2019. Hmm.”

Surrrrrre you do. No Michael, you post such idiotic comments because you’re an idiot. Why should I care when Fran or Stan or Nan or who the hell ever starts commenting here? Why do you care so much? I’ve said this to you before, you don’t own this blog, you don’t direct commentary or commenters and when you do you come across as either senile or wayyyyy to concerned with other commenters, which is weird.

Leland said...

60% of Democrats prefer a white male, while a basic majority prefers old white heterosexual males. 10% of Democrats prefer to throw darts at a board with a believe that anyone will do (I include with the 2% anyone else those with 2% or less in the poll, because isn't it the same thing?).

Jersey Fled said...

It's instructive that the #3 candidate is essentially a "none of the above" candidate, in that a) nobody knows a thing about him, except that he is gay and is mayor of a medium size city, and b) he has even fewer qualifications than Obama.

eric said...

I really hope it's Bernie or Biden.

Just about everyone else will be terrible for debate.

Does anyone remember the Obama years? "What, you disagree with Obamacare? It's because he's black and you're a racist!!"

Just about every criticism of Obama came down to, "You're a racist!"

You couldn't mock him, or make fun in any way, or you're a racist. You couldn't disagree with any of his policies or you're a racist.

If it's Buttigeg, you'll be a homophobe.

If it's one of the women, you'll be a misogynist.

If it's Cory Booker, you'll be a racist.

One thing our society needs is open and honest debate. Not the shutting down of debate that the left so desperately desires.

This is why I predict they'll go with someone who isn't a white male. They need to scream epithets at the other side in order to shut them up.

Wince said...

Until a poll can answer whether you want illegal immigrants sent to your hometown as a sanctuary, it’s all just posturing.

Milwaukie guy said...

The Bloomberg/Buttigeg ticket. We're moderates, not socialists. We're the nanny state.

Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...

> That means that Trump and the GOP are the equivalent of war criminals.


Titania McGrath, welcome to Althouse!

narciso said...

in the dark hose category,

https://jalopnik.com/high-profile-lawyer-michael-avenatti-allegedly-funded-h-1834034064

Nichevo said...

Michael K said...
I believe that the polluted environment is making more gay babies, and more black women.

Inga, is your county that polluted ?

The crazy is strong in this one.

4/15/19, 3:02 PM


People, people, this new freak is Trumpit. I don't know why he she or it changed identities but take it to the bank.

Like you can take it to the bank that the man who will lose to Trump in 2020 is Bernie Sanders.

Yancey Ward said...

Looks like Booker should come out of the closet.

Yancey Ward said...

Maybe Biden, too.

Yancey Ward said...

BAG wrote:

"Bernie will win nomination. Even if Biden runs, Bernie wins the nomination -- too many Dems will splinter the vote, and Bernie's 25 - 30% stays united.

They will keep Sanders in the race pretty much until the end, but any candidate that doesn't finish at least 3rd in either Iowa or New Hampshire will be out of the race before South Carolina. By the day of the first big multi-primary voting day, the race will be down to just 3 candidates, and down to 2 the day after.

Michael K said...

you come across as either senile or wayyyyy to concerned with other commenters, which is weird.

You are so easy to troll. Knee Jerk doesn't cover it. That's why you always look so dense. I didn't say you were "Fran" Just a quip about the pollution you lefties always rant about.

Michael K said...

By the day of the first big multi-primary voting day, the race will be down to just 3 candidates, and down to 2 the day after.

The big money is behind Harris. It will be interesting to watch her try the Hillary caper. The nomination cannot be taken by a white guy even if assassination is necessary. I would not sell Bernie or Biden life insurance right now.

narciso said...

probably but she's keeping a low profile, the Pulitzers still strive for irrelevancy,

Anonymous said...

Doc Mike is embarrassed for thinking everyone he can’t remember due to his dementia, is his nemesis, Inga. It’s the Inga invasion, run! Then the good doc tries to pretend he was just trolling. Maybe Doc Mike needs a nap. Fen is just a freak and not too bright.

narciso said...

and what you recall, isn't worth knowing, like the outriders, a new one crashes through the net,

I remember when they called it the seven dwarves, and grumpy (Dukakis) ended up with the nomination, there was a mayor of Irvine, for humours sakem

walter said...

Their imagination goes to..
It's high time.
He wants it.

Michael K said...

Maybe Doc Mike needs a nap.

trumpit, aren't you proud enough of your rant to take credit ?

Michel Canady said...

I woke up from my nap to see that the sock puppets have taken over the Althouse blog! Oh me oh my, what can be done?! Maybe we can form a militia and hunt down the vile sock puppets and expose them! That will teach them! Don’t make me do this on my own, I’m old and feeble and need lots of potty breaks.

pacwest said...

It looks like a quasi-poll to me.

tim in vermont said...

Blogger Earnest Prole said...
Bernie is the sole Democrat who has expressed reservations about wide-open borders


He has been sensible on 2A in the past too. But he can’t really fight the party, I don’t think.

Chris N said...

You could create a super identity candidate with the parts of the three lesser front-runners: A tax-hungry old union gay Jewish white socialist. Indestructible!

Robert said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Achilles said...

Nonapod said...

Whatever happened to poor Beto? I was assured he was the next Obama. Are his fifteen minutes already up?


People figured out he was kinda stupid.

Can Of Cheese for Hunter said...

Bernie was aided by the Russians. Will we get an investigation?

narciso said...

Like manbearbig you mean?

Achilles said...

Fran Waxman said...
I hope I'm wrong, but America is not ready for a black woman president or a gay for that matter. I believe that the polluted environment is making more gay babies, and more black women. I didn't think America was ready for an orange orangutan, but it happen by hook or crook. Never discount the power of right-wing kooks and old cuckolds to give away billions to billionaires as Trump did with his sham tax cut that benefited the rich like himself. Today, tax day, the GOP's shafting of the American middle class is a day that will live in infamy like Pearl Harbor. That means that Trump and the GOP are the equivalent of war criminals. They is no hyperbole in that statement.


This is bad faith posting.

Josephbleau said...

As Someone said, the first thing that Mexicans do when they get money is to build a wall topped with wire around the place they will build their house. Mexican elites will do anything to keep other Mexicans out. When they move to the US they won’t go to parties or participate civically but will stay in their fortress homes. Drive by the residential neighborhoods in Monterrey and you will see blocks of stone walls. Neighborhood schools are an anathema, public universities are for the poor.

Josephbleau said...

Narsisco, did you say “In the dark hose category...?” HAA HA.

hombre said...

6:23: Ritmo the sock puppet returns - anonymously..

Ok, Canady?

alanc709 said...

Does anyone really think Mayor Bootyjudge could win either in the Dem primaries or the federal election?