Biden hasn't lost any ground at all. And the rest of the pack seems rather pitiful. Yes, Buttigieg has risen from complete unknown to Booker level. I guess that looks positively burbling compared to the stagnation everywhere else.
ADDED: I went over to FiveThirtyEight to see how they were handling the dismal stagnation. The big article there is "How Eric Swalwell Could Win The 2020 Democratic Primary." A new funny name to replace the getting-old funniness of Buttigieg.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Swalwell hasn’t gotten a lot of attention as a potential presidential candidate. Only four pollsters have included him in early 2020 polls, and he has garnered only 0 or 1 percent in them. He has yet to bag any major endorsements. But Swalwell is reasonably adept at drawing attention to himself — he is a prolific user of social media and is a frequent guest on cable news shows....You need to be better at garnering.
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95 comments:
Booty-judge will judge your Christianity.
It's all name recognition right now.
"Handsy Biden" gets the name out.
He needs to start referring to himself more in the third person.
Yes, it’s a hit job. But few seem to be acknowledging that Joe Biden Created the Culture He Is a Target Of
As vice president, Biden sought to remake the rules of sexual culture on college campuses and beyond. He succeeded—and now is suffering for it.
For purely political reasons, this SOB worked to destroy due process for college students accused of sexual offenses. Now that he is the target of politically motivated assumptions of guilt, we’re supposed to give him a pass in the name of reason? Couldn't have happened to a nicer fellow. Let's see him drive up the white female vote for Trump even higher.
The real question is what the big money donors are thinking. They're the audience for the hit job. Elitists prepare propaganda for elitists.
The Google Oligarchs - what will they do? Do the Google Oligarchs like The Biden?
Yeah, I wondered why this was coming up so early and why people weren't noting that usually early reveals are more about inoculation from future charges than mortally wounding.
How sick is your party when Biden is the least crazy one?
The big article there is "How Eric Swalwell Could Win The 2020 Democratic Primary."
They've been running that type of article for every candidate.
IMO the race is Bittigeig against Biden. Buttigeig is the chosen one. Biden is going to bow out and join the Super Delegates in supporting the Globalist plant at the Convention. All of the others are for fillers up of airtime until the convention.
yes, this is near beer, compared to biden's watercarrying for the sub prime cartel, following the nuclear freeze shem in the 80s, undermining our policy in Afghanistan and Iraq, in the 00s,
Re Mayor Pete's statement the other day, I was put off with the use of "my creator." Why "my" rather than "our creator." In Mayor Pete's religion, does he have a different creator than Pence? Would "our creator" have been viewed as insufficiently "inclusive" to the left -- i.e., it is assuming a universal creator that excludes other religious traditions?
As not a fan of running a retread in the general, what I find dispiriting in the polls is that Bernie Sanders is running even with Biden in both Iowa and New Hampshire.
This is wildly early of course. There are over 10 debates and forums upcoming.
The NEW DEFINITION of Presidential qualified!
Swalwell is reasonably adept at drawing attention to himself —
I guess that looks positively burbling compared to the stagnation everywhere else... "How Eric Swalwell Could Win The 2020 Democratic Primary. A new funny name to replace the getting-old funniness of Buttigieg."
Burbling, gurgling, gargling... Swallow well?
Gillibrand at 1%?
There is a God.
"Based on the new polls, I'd say the hit job on Biden failed miserably."
The poll is targeting Democrats who really don't care about all the things they say they care about. Plus, and you've seen it here, they have made this about his treatment of women. They know about all the kid stuff, but there is no explaining that away, so they admitted all the women stuff, and normalized it.
I would imagine that most Democrats who aren't idiots look at Biden and think that he is their only hope to save the party from Crazy Bernie. Kiss the Fake Indian goodbye.
Buttigieg/Swalwell: that's the ticket.
I have a problem with the creator of that chart.
Hmm, transgender is not so trendy. However, a moderately liberal clone of the 90s, or perhaps the 70s, 60s, that is diametrically congruent with a baby/fetus with white hair, is. That said, he's a warlock, deny him his throne, deny him employment, deny him a meal, stalk him at home, and dunk him to confirm him.
Biden: I can smell hair and I wouldn't lose voters.
interesting you bring that up:
https://thefederalist.com/2019/04/09/feminists-couldnt-get-trans-ideology-uk-public-schools-muslims/
I blame Trump's meme tweet for Biden's steady hold on the top position.
I'm so happy for Biden that he survived the 'hit job'
Biden - the last direct link to the Scoop Jackson era Democrats. What a dinosaur. Where's the comet?
stevew said...
I blame Trump's meme tweet for Biden's steady hold on the top position.
That's astute.
"I'd say the hit job on Biden failed miserably."
From a Dem perspective, perhaps. But the hit job exposed a weakness the GOP can exploit in the general: for every accusation against Trump as a sexist boor, it will run an ad showing Creepy Joe stroking a girl's hair or touching a girl's face.
Normally, the non-Biden progs would unite to stop the nearly dead white male. But they have a problem: Bernie and Biden both seem to have a chunk of Dem voters, so the rest will have to unite to block them--but they are divided. A majority of Dems don't want Biden, and a majority of Dems don't want Bernie, but their process may not enable them to express their preference.
Burbling, gurgling, gargling... Swallow well?
Burbling means murmuring, perhaps about garnering or gardening, so it was the wrong word, but it could be even more wrong:
Burbling
The sound your butt or large intestines make that is similar to a gurgle in your stomach. It is a strong indicator of impending, watery stools.
Can you image what a Trump/Biden debate would sound like? Wouldn't be much along the lines of empty headed rhetoric and meaningless bumper sticker slogans. More like two old guys sitting at a bar watching their favorite teams--Dodgers/Yankees--in the World series.
What could be even more fun?
Having Trump debate all the democrats at once.
impending watery stools
"Burbling" might have been used correctly if that refers to Biden, which it does.
Came whiffling through the tulgey wood, And burbled as it came!
When Sweet Pete says “my creator” he means the evolutionary accident that accidentally made creatures, such as himself, that will to not reproduce. How smart of a god is that ?
I saw Eric at Lincoln's Pub in Council Bluffs. No chance.
I don't imagine Eric "Nuke Marmalard" Swalwell is going to get very far.
Chicks dig skills, nunchuck skills, garnering skills...
There are some articles at 538 that are pertinent:
What More Than 40 Years Of Early Primary Polls Tell Us About 2020: Part 1
What More Than 40 Years Of Early Primary Polls Tell Us About 2020: Part 2
Basically it boils down to this -- if a little-known candidate is going to win they have to poll well among those who know all the candidates. Otherwise, the early leader is usually the winner.
Call me crazy, but I could imagine Trump asking Biden to be his VP.
Or that might just be the borborygmi talking.
That was no hit job.
The major media outlets weren't out collecting stories, selectively dribbling them out to make every Biden statement look "off key", using anonymous sources, and doing it all at the precise time it would do the most damage to Biden and his party.
That was just enough to "put the issue behind him" and make it clear to any other women that their accusations faced an uphill climb.
It sent the message that if Biden didn't rape you, the media has decided you need to shut up.
Further proof that the Dems shot off their kneecaps when the forced Biden to NOT run in 2016, because of the Clinton Machine.
Where is my governor, Andrew Cuomo? You think Nadler has a NY accent?
Bo Borborygmi is also running.
When will things look so grim for Dems that they consider rolling out the ol' Gal for one more round?
One idea is getting it out early, so later it is just"old news".
The real, mortal blow will be pointing out that he is a former VP.
Like Nixon.
Like..... Ummmm
Well like nobody else in 200 years.
VP is disqualifying.
John Henry
The thing about the victories of Barack Obama and Donald Trump is that it has caused the bottom to fall out of the Presidential handicapping business. I predict that the candidate will be someone who I don't think could possibly win.. I can't imagine someone like Warren winning the nomination and that scares me. Warren is far and away the most annoying Democrat candidate so you can't count her out.
like nobody else in 200 years.
VP is disqualifying.
Like Truman, LBJ,or GHWBush.
Eric Swallwell? The California Congressman from the Bay Area is running? Eric Swallwell?
The guy's a dickless peon. If I may paraphrase George Kennedy in The Eiger Sanction, the man couldn't find his Talleywacker with a 6 man search party.
So Kamala’s MeToo takedown of Joe failed.
Welcome back, Joe. Now go bloody yourself up with Kamala and Bernie.
The Socialists vs Joe.
Should be entertaining.
The 'VP is disqualifying' comment is correct. LBJ and Truman became president by accident. GHW Bush became president because it was so good under Reagan, we just gotta stick with the 'pubs; and we got Poppy.
Biden was chose VP to help Obama win Pennsylvania.
If he's nominated, he won't even win Pennsylvania.
Ann Althouse said...
Came whiffling through the tulgey wood, And burbled as it came!
One is grateful that nobody outgrabe.
Like Truman, LBJ,or GHWBush.
4/9/19, 9:13 AM
They became president immediately after they were VPs. There were two terms between when Nixon was a VP and when he became president.
Not every hit job needs to be - or is intended to be - instantly fatal. Creepy Joe may have future use.
One is grateful that nobody outgrabe.
Just us mome raths.
Dream scenario:
1. Biden is deemed too old, white and creepy. Either doesn't run or underperforms.
2. Bernie and his 25% support win the nomination - due to the other 19 jokers splintering the vote.
3. Howie Schultz runs 3rd Party, gets half the Dem vote.
4. Hilarity ensues.
Political Dictionary definition:
Hit Job - telling the truth about a Democrat.
chickelit said..
"When will things look so grim for Dems that they consider rolling out the ol' Gal for one more round?"
Soon my friend, soon. I would guess shortly after Memorial Day provided the non-Sanders, non-Biden candidates continue to wallow at the bottom of the polls.
I don't see Biden's behavior as horrible. Too familiar, too touchy-feely, inappropriate, but not anything scandalous. But as CJ points out, Joe garnered his censure, and I'm enjoying his burbling abasement.
like the mortal engines film adaption, that will crash and burn,
"Based on the new polls, I'd say the hit job on Biden failed miserably."
The media tribe is clueless. They're in such a bubble. It's embarrassing.
Consider my family for a second. We're so divided politically, it's not even funny. My Mom loves Obama. Huge Obama fan. Hates Trump. Can't stand him. My father's an old school elite Republican. He's a Romney guy. Held his nose and voted for Hillary. My brother is so hard left now, we have to avoid political discussions altogether. And I'm the pro-lifer with the bumper sticker on his car. So we're pretty eclectic in my family.
Anyway, that's our family. And I'm over at their house. So I'm trying to watch George Stephanopoulos with my Mom. She's the only one who watches your show, George. Okay? She's your audience.
Me: "They don't have a Republican on this panel."
Mom: "I think they have one. A guy with white hair. (Hugh Hewitt). Oh wait. I think he was on another show."
It turns out they had one Republican, some Asian guy I'd never heard of who didn't like Donald Trump. The only reason I discovered he was a Republican is because he was identified as a Republican. He didn't actually say anything that sounded remotely Republican to me.
And all of these upper class commentators thought Joe Biden was in big trouble for touching people.
My mom and I were mocking the shit out of them. She likes Joe Biden. Probably because she remembers that he was the vice-president for eight years. He's been touching people inappropriately, and saying inappropriate things, his whole career. "He gave me an inappropriate back rub during the Obama administration and it's very important that I get on TV and talk about it now."
Media: you are a joke. No pro-lifers on television. We all know that. But now you can't even put an actual Republican on your show. Nobody working class on your show. Obviously nobody who likes touching people on your show. A bunch of uptight twits who have a career of always saying the "right" thing, and never saying the "wrong" thing. And none of you have noticed that we are building a society where more and more people are getting in trouble for smaller and smaller offenses?
You've built a pristine panel filled with people who all talk the same way. And it's so bad now--and my mom loves George Stephanopoulos--it's so bad now that even she is making fun of you. Not a single person on this upper-class liberal panel, talking about this working-class liberal politician, was on his side. Yes, you had zero diversity, George. I know you think you had a rainbow coalition. It was the fucking Borg. You were unanimous that Joe Biden was inappropriate and wrong and bad and white male and very old and in big trouble. And you didn't notice that the charges were ridiculous, or that the story was a non-story. Manufactured controversy. Bullshit on stilts. "More apologies! He needs to apologize more and more and more!" How dare he touch people or try to reach out and connect.
Did you forget that the American people voted in a pussy-grabbing president? And you want us to be outraged about the shoulder touching doofus? Fuck off you irrelevant dinosaur. And I'm not talking about Joe Biden. You are the irrelevant dinosaur, ABC. With your PC, brain-dead, Ivy league educated, millionaire panel filled with NPC idiots.
Ghw bush was a sitting vp, not a former vp when he ran
You have to go back to the 1830s to find another example.
The others got the presidency via death. None was able to get reelected to a second full term
All were viewed contemporaneously as very poor presidents.
The history of vps in the oval is almost uniformly bad. Coolidge woul be the exception.
Some would say tr is another.
Any other vps you admire?
John Henry
Saint Croix said...
And you want us to be outraged about the shoulder touching doofus?
LOL. I want to see "Vote for the Shoulder Touching Doofus" on a billboard.
I think that is actually a rare case of garner used well. You can get lots of things but properly there are only a few things one garners. Principally what one garners when one garners is approval. Here he has garnered support which is a form of approval. 538 has garnered my approval for its specific and appropriate use of the word. (There is an implication that 538 has earned my approval rather than just had it land upon them randomly. So I used garner idiomatically too.)
One reason why Biden has held up is that hilarious meme Althouse blogged, of Biden sniffing Biden. It punctures the po-faced puritans and their hypocritical hand-wringing.
Notice that after two weeks of "Buttigieg-mania," Mr. Buttigieg at 4-5%, putting him at the bottom of the third tier that includes Warren and Booker. Why, it's almost as if the general population of voters has a different idea of what they want in a President than the commentariat and the Twitterati.
meanwhile you have actual commie fellow traveler sanders, as no 2 in many of the polls, that's our version of red Jeremy corbin.
Buttigieg isn’t running for President. He is running for the senate a few years from now. What really turns me off him is his attempt to make the election about god. Here's my church attendance record, where's yours?
Why, it's almost as if the general population of voters has a different idea of what they want in a President than the commentariat and the Twitterati.
This is the story of the Election. We have a generation of Jacobins and red guards running the Democrat Party. They are not in tune with the voters who want some body like Biden. Not insane, in other words.
Did you forget that the American people voted in a pussy-grabbing president? And you want us to be outraged about the shoulder touching doofus?
That's a mistake that endangers your character. You should consider stepping away from it.
Trump was talking about celebrity groupie gold-diggers. Women who would LET you grab them by the pussy for a chance to marry your bank account. I grew up wealthy, I know exactly the kind of girl he was talking about. They would CONSENT to anything you asked of them.
Biden was invading the personal space of women and young girls, without their consent, and in a public venue where it would be socially awkward to make a fuss about it. They did NOT consent, and it's obvious from the multiple videos of them visibly cringing that they were uncomfortable with such intimacy from Biden.
What you are doing is the equivalent of pretending your opponents cheat to justify your decision to cheat. It usually ends with the realization that you are the only one cheating, with the attendant bad karma.
I'm not saying this to hector you or as a "gotcha". I'm saying it as one human to another that what you doing is not healthy for you.
There's a lot of people that think Homosexuality is a choice. That they were not "born that way". There is not much evidence beyond constant assertion that homosexuality isn't innate.
Most people don't much care that mayor Pete is gay. His bleating "it's not my fault.,God made me this way" is a turnoff to some.
Just man up. Say "I'm gay. The reason is unimportant. Deal with it."
John Henry
We should remember that, in 1972 Ed Muskie was a serious Democrat candidate who might have been able to beat Nixon.
Instead, the party went hard left, like they are doing today. and lost 49 states. Biden is the only chance, as crazy as he is, to get a "normal" Democrat as candidate.
If mayor Pete is elected, how will he have any kind of relationship with the govt of Brunei or other similar countries.
Is his sexuality a presidential dq because it will impact his ability to carry out diplomacy?
John Henry
well there was the 'canuck letter' which they made so much of in woodwards account, he was a moderate liberal, scoop Jackson was probably still too sensible for 1972,
Something I've noticed about on-line political addicts: (1) They do not know they are political addicts. (2) They do not know they are not the "norm."
Twitter or on-line politics or NYTimes are not "real life." Many people do not obsess over politics. The average Democratic voter likes Biden. The average primary voter will ignore the primary until the election is closer. & some of these election polls are using n-values that may not be statistically significant in a crowded field.
Name recognition is the whole ball game at the start. One of the reasons that Trump won the nomination in 2016 was that he had better name recognition than any of the other candidates, even Jeb! (Please Clap) Bush. That would not have been enough, though, if he had had to depend on political donations to run, I think.
Biden's problem will be getting big money donors to donate- I don't think he has the passionate support to be able to depend on small donors the way Sanders and Beta can.
The way I see, the big money donors will probably settle on Harris for the most part. With that edge, she will get better and better name recognition as the debate cycle pushes the media stories starting this Summer.
Not gonna lie, I have not read all the comments, so this obviously may have been suggested once or twice already:
Bidens debate with Ryan was crazy. If Trump ends up debating Biden, his team should demand both candidates undergo Breathalyzer and drug testing night of..
wwww is correct- we are not normal. I never once lose sight of this fact, but some of us truly do.
If you polled a 1000 people at a grocery store and asked them who Kamala Harris was, I doubt that more than 50 could do so. If you polled them about Joe Biden, though, well more than a majority could probably do so. By next January, Harris will be over the 50% mark as will at least 3 of the other candidates.
And remember, Obama may not explicitly support a candidate, but I don't think he will be supporting Biden behind the scenes- his opinion will matter to the donors, and they will get that opinion.
I eagerly await 538's story about how Barack Obama could win the nomination in 2020.
Henry is correct- they do this for every candidate that announces, so it isn't evidence of insanity so much.
Regardless of whether the Big Money boys support her, Kamala is susceptible to the Hillary Effect, whereby the more people see of her the less they like her.
The only reasonable conclusion is that Democratic voters see a Democratic Presidential candidate fondling women and girls as a net positive.
tcrosse,
I think Harris will master the fake sincerity and authenticity, eventually. Clinton's problem was that the people knew her for a long, long time before she ran for the Presidency- she just never could overcome that previous exposure as a harridan, no matter how hard she tried to.
I still remember Obama's brilliant put-down of Hillary- "She's nice enough."
You need to up your anti-garner campaign. In some cases "get" is not the best alternative so I suggest every garner criticism imply a new contest for the best alternative.
1. he has garnered only 0 or 1 percent in them.
2. he has gotten only 0 or 1 percent in them.
3. he has reached only 0 or 1 percent in them.
Alternatives considered:
earned
achieved
Snort. Snicker. Jay Inslee.
Thing is, if people even get to know Jay Inslee, his numbers will be even worse.
Fortunately, they won't get to know him.
Biden was invading the personal space of women and young girls, without their consent, and in a public venue where it would be socially awkward to make a fuss about it. They did NOT consent, and it's obvious from the multiple videos of them visibly cringing that they were uncomfortable with such intimacy from Biden.
So you think he's a public criminal? Assault and battery? Sexual assault and battery?
I live in a messed up culture where our authorities teach us that it is "right" to kill your own baby. It's not okay. Love your child. Love people. Go ahead and touch people. That's friendly and nice. If people object or dislike it, apologize and move on. Life is too short for this shit.
One of the stragglers
https://pjmedia.com/video/2020-dem-kirsten-gillibrand-rails-against-tactile-nuclear-weapons/
I know very little about Swalwell and would like to be informed. Is he pro-freedom or pro-statist? Please--don't keep me in suspense! Youth wants to know!
Who knew Joe Biden was radioactive.
"This is wildly early of course. There are over 10 debates and forums upcoming."
Less significant for Democrats than Republicans. Who the machine chooses is much more important than that piddly crap.
"I blame Trump's meme tweet for Biden's steady hold on the top position"
I think Biden would be Trump's choice. None of that icky minority or female crap to worry about. With the PC minefield irrelevant, Trump would be merciless.
"Snort. Snicker. Jay Inslee.
Thing is, if people even get to know Jay Inslee, his numbers will be even worse.
Fortunately, they won't get to know him"
Inslee has to be one of the weirdest vanity candidates ever. I never hear his name spoken without someone laughing.
I've known Inslee since 1991. He wasn't half bad back then.
He's a freak show now.
I think the attack on Biden is because he's a white male, yes, they hate that, but also because he's Catholic and squishy on the abortion issue. See, for instance, this article on Biden.
So it's similar to the attacks on Clarence Thomas and Brett Kavanaugh. One big difference is that nobody is lying this time around. Nobody is inventing sex harassment claims to sabotage his candidacy. Nobody is making up assault claims. I think they're exaggerating their emotional upset. (And they love their 15 minutes of fame). But the media's urge to attack Biden is based on
1) optics (white male! again!)
2) squishy on Roe
Of course, Donald Trump used to be very pro-choice. I'm not sure to this day if he had a genuine change of heart, or knows that's where his voters are. Probably the former.
Here is Joe Biden's current line on abortion...
My religion defines who I am. And I've been a practicing Catholic my whole life. And it has particularly informed my social doctrine. Catholic social doctrine talks about taking care of those who can't take care of themselves, people who need help. With regard to abortion, I accept my church's position that life begins at conception. That's the church's judgment. I accept it in my personal life. But I refuse to impose it on equally devout Christians and Muslims and Jews and--I just refuse to impose that on others, unlike my friend here, the congressman. I do not believe that we have a right to tell other people that women can't control their body. It's a decision between them and their doctor, in my view. And the Supreme Court--I'm not going to interfere with that.
It will be interesting to see if Democrats attack Biden for not being pro-choice enough, or they continue to use the "insensitive male" attack as a proxy for that. Do you want to unseat Biden? Or is everybody else running for veep?
wwww said...
Something I've noticed about on-line political addicts: (1) They do not know they are political addicts. (2) They do not know they are not the "norm."
Twitter or on-line politics or NYTimes are not "real life." Many people do not obsess over politics. The average Democratic voter likes Biden. The average primary voter will ignore the primary until the election is closer. & some of these election polls are using n-values that may not be statistically significant in a crowded field.
Abstractly true.
The next question is will the candidate increase support with more exposure?
For most of these candidates the answer is no.
And the biggest question democrats need to answer is will the candidate fair well under the critical attacks that Trump can and will launch in their direction.
He wont cuck out like Mitt Romney did and every one of these people is scum.
I think Beto and Buttigieg should consider running as a single ticket. They could have a nostalgic appeal to the MTV generation of late Boomers/ GenXers, if Buttigieg worked on his "heh, heh, heh" pointing out to audiences any possible sexual meaning in Beto's words.
It wasn’t a hit job. It was an early airing of a meme in a controlled way so he can claim it’s so over later.
l
So you think he's a public criminal?
No, Santa, just a creep. Go ahead and Vote for the Creep if you want to. (I guess you've never been molested, in any case, you don't recognize it when you see it.) Can't imagine why though, President Trump offers you (and delivers or tries to) everything you want, and Biden nothing. I can't understand why people find him sympathetic.
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