The screen shot is from Real Clear Politics. Click to enlarge and clarify.
I've got to say I don't even know who "Ryan" is. And also, there are so many candidates. I suspect a lot of people are ignoring the race and waiting for the field to thin out. It's so hard to believe the next President is on the list (other than as a potential winner in 2024).
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You mean Paul Ryan is finally being honest and running as a Democrat?
He was the best omnibus budget writer ever.
Biden seems to have weathered the overly-affectionate-creepy-touchy storm pretty well. Apparently Dem voters are willing to subsume those concerns for their greater good of beating Trump.
It seems like Harris is starting to climb a bit. But I'm not sure why that might be.
I had to look up Tim Ryan myself. He's a congresscritter from Ohio who claims to be a progressive that can bridge the gap to working class people. If it were true, he'd be dangerous.
"I'm a progressive who knows how to talk to working-class people, and I know how to get elected in working-class districts, because, at the end of the day, the progressive agenda is what's best for working families," Ryan said.
Ah, no it's not. And he has no chance. Besides, he owns guns. No way the Democrats nominate somebody who owns guns.
Reminder: The Iowa caucuses are next February. Out here in the Shenandoah Valley we've just barely started spring.
Tim Ryan. Ohio 9-term Rep. From a 5 things you need to know site: Ryan’s first job in politics was as an aide to then-Rep. Jim Traficant, the Youngstown Democrat known for his wild hair, working-class credo, and corruption scandals. He did a two-year stint in the Ohio Senate from 2001 to 2002. Ryan replaced Traficant in Congress, winning the seat at age 29 despite being outspent in the Democratic primary 6-to-1.
Bringing skills learned from Jim Traficant to the White House.....
I used to distrust polls this far out because they were historically (and hysterically) very bad predictors.
Now I distrust them because I think the "news" organizations are unreliable.
-XC
PS = Experts say the new anti-Robot thing is SUPER ANNOYING.
There are 2 Dems, Tim Ryan and Seth Moulton, who are actually pretty squared away guys. Tulsi Gabbard has said some sensible things, too.
The problem is that they are political outliers in their party, which, as a whole, is batshit crazy.
The Dem establishment wants Biden-Harris, which is their best bet to beat Trump.
I say, Go Bernie!
I wrote a few days back- the field will be greatly narrowed before the Iowa caucuses. I don't expect there to be more than 6 active candidates by that point, and after Iowa, there are likely to be only 3 that get more than 3% in New Hampshire.
Right now, these the ones who are likely to have the money and/or organization to effectively compete in Iowa:
Biden, Sanders, Harris, Buttuvwxyz, Warren, and Klobuchar.
This report summarizes the current list of Democrat candidates, including the ones you've never heard of. I note that it includes Hillary Clinton.
I clicked on the Tulsi Gabbard campaign ad. You know, she could be running against Barack Obama and not Trump.
Hope the Dems and the media [I know, I know] continue to trust the polls. Like they did in 2016.
Bad sign for Biden that he’s not close to 50%.
Our Professor Althouse said...
It's so hard to believe the next President is on the list (other than as a potential winner in 2024).
It doesn't seem like the Democrats Want to win in 2020; kinda like the Reps, with Dole in 1996
It’s basically Biden and Sanders vs The Field. They are the ones with name recognition. Bernie has a solid base of support. He’ll be a formidable candidate. Biden doesn’t know who he is.
And I agree with mccullough- in this field Biden should be 40% at a minimum in such an early poll. That he isn't should be sending him warning signals. I also feel the same way about Sanders- he should be over 30% but isn't- the two of them together should be over 70% at a minimum.
Tim Ryan is that rare Dem who seems to actually like Americans and America. Most of this clown show is running to be VP in 2020, and yes for the chance to run for President in 2024 since it’s looking ever more likely that we’re heading towards a boomer battle of septuginarians in 2020.
Hair-Sniffer Joe is wavering..
What are the odds that few more well-coiffed ladies are ready to belatedly protest about non-consensual hair-sniffing?
The Night Rider doesn't even make a single percent? Oh, happy day. She's a serious piece of shit.
Ryan is a member of the House of Representatives from Ohio.
PB&J (if Biden picks PB) would be cute.
It's so hard to believe the next President is on the list
The next president isn't on the list. Potentially in 2024, I suppose, but I wouldn't bet on it.
There were more Republicans running in 2016 than Democrats today.
It's so hard to believe the next President is on the list (other than as a potential winner in 2024).
I think that happens a lot. Here’s one press account from 1991:
Four years ago, the field of Democrats seeking the nomination bore the derisive term of the "Seven Dwarfs. " Not much of a field has developed for 1992, but the "dwarf" terminology is appropriate just the same.
And then came the Rise of the Clinton Machine.
GigaButt has the name recognition factor sewn up. It also makes him seem like he could be a normal human, not a robotic assembly like most of them. Plus the husband accessory, a huge advantage within his Party. That's three assets more than anyone else on those lists. The two polls have him already in third. With only Sanders and Biden ahead of him, how can he fail to get that nomination?
Most people don't care. Look, Biden leads the polls, and he's not even officially a candidate yet, right?
Traficant was more conservative than the rest of the party and got some credit among paleocons for the positions he took before he was taken down on corruption charges. He was a mixed bag of good and bad. Nobody in the party today can be anywhere near as conservative as he was.
Hate to say it, but I bet the DNC will use superdelegate shenanigans to deny Sanders the nom again. And it's smart of them to do that. They can't let their party go full Left.
Mayor Pete is so young that there is no downside to this folly. He develops some great PR, some name recognition, a big database of supporters, a lotta shekels, he loses, and throws his support to one of the zombies, gets a prime time speaking gig, and then runs for Indiana Senator or Governor.
That's the game, dude. Nobody cares what he ever accomplished as Mayor of South Bend (pop. 100K.)
Heck, maybe the Mayor of Hayward, CA should run.
Despite being in his state I admit I didn't know much about Moulton. I don't think I'm alone. (How many candidates from Massachusetts? Three? Is Weld from Massachusetts?) I knew he served so I went looking to see if he brings his own tank helmet to the race ('hat' tip Dukakis). No, a Marine, so he hitched rides...
Hate to say it, but I bet the DNC will use superdelegate shenanigans to deny Sanders the nom again
An excellent wager.
Generally speaking, the front runner gets the party nomination. That was true for Trump. The only recent exeption I can think of is Obama in 2008.
I'll wait for a poll that factors in the coveted Boston Bomber vote. Could be a big shake-up at the top.
I would think that Sen. Warren would get a bump from her audacious student debt proposal. Compared to the GND it's a terrific value!
CJinPA notes: I think that happens a lot. Here’s one press account from 1991:
Four years ago, the field of Democrats seeking the nomination bore the derisive term of the "Seven Dwarfs. " Not much of a field has developed for 1992, but the "dwarf" terminology is appropriate just the same.
That would never fly today. Outrage would abound on behalf of dwarfism.
@mockturtle: Identity politics will have to take a back seat in 2020, in order to get Biden front and center. Harris isn't a viable candidate, and I think the DNC knows that.
They really have their hands full for 2020. Just look at what Pelosi is going through to keep the crazy wing of her party from taking over.
I had forgotten about Jim Trafficant; he was a piece of work! A bit like Trump: unfiltered. Completely corrupt- at least for several years.
BAG
The hit on Gabbard — she met with a bad guy we were not a war with!! — seems like weak tea to me. Anyone notice who FDR and Truman met with? So that isn’t the real reason she is ignored. Do Dems just not like Hindus?
Polls of the Democrat primary mean zero, nothing, squat at this time.
The question is- Who are the movers and shakers going to see get the nomination? Hillary, again, or the even less qualified Michelle? I mean, they came close with one ex-president's unqualified wife, maybe they can push the next over the line.
@Ken B,
Yeah, grading on a curve, Tulsi gets relatively high marks compared to her wacky political brethren.
The Left has two aims that often conflict: (1) get power and (2) transform the US into a euro-socialist type country. Without 1, 2 never occurs. So, they have to soft-pedal and/or mask 2. All members of this august understand this, but it's good to reiterate it anyhow.
That's why Bernie is such a trip. He never accepted 1. He has a 40 year record of advocating socialism, and, living a wierd, socialist life, writing soft porn essays.He is the mirror opposite of Trump, but seeks to upend the Dem Party just as Trump did to the GOP.
"august blog"
The running joke that is Jay Inslee is nowhere to be found.
I believe that Mark Cuban could beat Trump and each of the Dems in a non-primary campaign, and would probably make a pretty decent president (better than anyone else running). Maybe he should challenge Trump. If he ran as a Democrat he might make things interesting as well - I could see him in the top three.
Monmouth has some with zero. what does that say for Gillebrand?
Limbaugh doesn't think that "Plugs" Biden and Crazy Bernie will make it through the primary. He has Michelle My Belle as the primary winner with declared candidates now topping 20 - and she has yet to announce or even attend meetings with party elites.
I listen to Rush declaring Sanders to be "Crazy Bernie" but nary a word about the mental stability of DJT. Also the enemies of The Donald are all liars including Bob Mueller who has not uttered a public comment in two years, On the other hand, Rush and Sean have never ever detected untruths emanating from Trump's lips and Tweets.
"Bad sign for Biden that he’s not close to 50%."
Was Trump ever above 50% in 2016 before the convention?
Biden's just dangling his 30% out there so he gets some cred, and can play 'power broker' down the road.
I predict he does not even announce as a candidate. Nothing ground breaking there, I know.
It's so hard to believe the next President is on the list (other than as a potential winner in 2024
The point is to clear out the cupboard so the real progressives can run next time.
2024 is the year where "if we only ran a REAL progressive" finally comes to pass and the Democrat Party never recovers.
It will be DeBlazio and someone to his left.
I predict he does not even announce as a candidate.
The rumors are that he's trying to lock up all the endorsements before he announces in a shock and awe move that forces many of the other candidates out of the race.
Or he could be digging up dead hookers and moving the bodies to more remote locations.
I personally think he's negotiating with Obama about whether to run, as a Biden candidacy brings all of Obama's dirt to the race that a retiring Biden leaves where it lies.
With Biden, really anything is possible.
I believe that Mark Cuban could beat Trump and each of the Dems in a non-primary campaign...
Mark Cuban is a 9/11 Truther.
Kevin guesses: Or he could be digging up dead hookers and moving the bodies to more remote locations.
Always a big mistake. New technology is able to detect recently disturbed ground from quite a distance now.
Mark Cuban is a 9/11 Truther.
As of about 10 years ago, a majority of Democrats said they thought Bush knew about 9/11 ahead of time and let the attacks happen.
I listen to Rush declaring Sanders to be "Crazy Bernie" but nary a word about the mental stability of DJT.
Maybe because Bernie is crazy ? Just a thought,. One the other hand, the new AP high school History textbook says Trump is
"mentally unstable," so you will soon have company,
Joe Biden--the horror! the horror!
Interesting, the ordering of the candidates names only serves to put Buttigeig in the middle of the text field.
The polls already have him running for VP??
Remember how early this is.
This time, last cycle, only Bush, Rubio, and Walker were in double digits and Trump wasn't even listed.
"The running joke that is Jay Inslee is nowhere to be found"
He hasn't exactly been missed in Olympia, either.
I don't listen to Rush, so I don't know who Michelle Ma Belle is. Would That be Mrs. Obama?
Rush needs to scale back the oxycontin. Has he paid any attention at all to Mrs. O?
She and her family are a monument to bourgeois values. Her parents stayed together. Her reliable, protective father paid attention to his children and gave her a sense of stability that has served her well throughout her life. BHO saw that stability and went for it. He married well.
She was at best ambivalent about being First Lady. She has had her fill of official Washington. She has no policy interests other than dishing out essentially bourgeois advice to minority girls. She likes the glamour and freedom of being an international celebrity without any responsibility. She hates retail politics. She doesn't care about having power. She has no interest in being POTUS whatsoever.
If nominated she will not run. If elected, she will not serve.
As to Michelle O, that comment about her being proud of America for the first time didn't come out well. The mistake was way overblown. She should have said that she was proud of America for giving her husband a chance.
How many stupid things did she say in eight years in the White House and two years on the campaign trail? Not many.
How many stupid things did Hillary say in 2008 and 2016, O deplorables? How many stupid things does Trump say in a month (remember, I am generally a Trump supporter)? Answer: lots. It is part of the job to run your mouth all the time. Most of what they say is amiable nonsense. There is some genuine stupidity. There is occasional insight.
Michelle O is OK, particularly because she doesn't want to be president. Don't confuse her with Hillary.
"The running joke that is Jay Inslee is nowhere to be found"
He hasn't exactly been missed in Olympia, either.
My daughter sent a news photo yesterday showing Inslee proudly displaying the newly approved pink hunting attire as an alternative to orange. How sweet. Like a pussy! I told her that if they replace orange with pink entirely things could get ugly. And I wouldn't want to be out there in the woods wearing my pink reflective gear. No. Next it will be rainbow hunting gear to honor the LGBTQ hunting community.
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She and her family are a monument to bourgeois values
Have you read her Princeton Thesis?
holy gotham batman!
https://dailycaller.com/2019/04/23/google-staffer-who-called-blackburn-terrorist/
Ann, you'd know who Tim Ryan is if you read my regular Democratic Presidential Clown Car Update, published every Monday.
Other obscure Democratic presidential contenders covered include:
* Marianne Williamson
* John Delaney
* Seth Moulten (just got in)
* Wayne Messam
FYI, John Delaney probably sounds the sanest of all the Dem presidential contenders, which is why I give him no chance at all...
Have I read her thesis?
Yes, but not for a while. My real point is that whatever goofy ideas she espoused at 22, in fact her basic values— the rules by which she leads her life—would be very congenial with and familiar to most of the fire-breathing commenters on this site: be faithful to your spouse, protect your children, be honest, do your duty, speak up for your friends, try to give an honest day’s work for a day’s pay, don’t cheat, etc.
Her high school counsellor told her to forget Princeton and think about Illinois- Champaign. Maybe that was good advice. She got admitted to Princeton and Harvard Law and then she got hired by Sidley. She did that for a while but didn’t really like it, so she found another job— just like me and many others.
Michelle went from a stable and loving family out into the world where she had her ups and downs—just like the rest of us. And she married a guy who got elected POTUS twice. Pretty good for a girl from South Shore— as you well know.
She wants to be POTUS about as much as Althouse does.
Four years ago, we were told that Jeb was the guy for the R's. Had all the money and connections... he was a shoe-in.
It's waaaaaaaaaaay to early yet to say who has a chance and who doesn't.
Pretty good for a girl from South Shore— as you well know.
Her family lived about four houses from mine but long after we had left.
She also go a nice job with U of Chicago Hospitals making sure the poor did not get admitted. About $300 k worth.
Michelle was born two years after my father sold our house but the Wiki give the address as Euclid Ave, not Paxton which was what I thought was the address. Euclid was about two blocks away. It says she suffered from "discrimination:" but there was no one but blacks by the time she would have been in school.
That neighbnorhood changed very fast, My father was attacked on the front porch of our house, which is why he sold in 1962.
That UChicago Hospital job appears to me to be the classic let’s overpay the wife so the husband can go to Washington gambit. She started the community relations job in 2005 as BHO was warming up for his Senate run and she kept the job while he was in the Senate.
As another example of how this works, I was a partner in a law firm where on of my colleagues became a cabinet member. His wife was a partner in the same firm. When he assumed the cabinet office, his wife was transferred to the DC office and her pay went from $250,000 a year to $500,000 a year. That extra $250K would pay for a lot of canapés.
It is an old game and both parties play it. Harry Truman put his wife on his office payroll.
Oh yes. Just bellying up to the trough. It is Chicago.
Government whores gonna whore.
The government whores get rich - all while they remove our freedoms. It's Universal.
Mayor Pete says "vote for me and I will give you a blow job!"
John Delaney may be the sanest candidate, but it's hard to put a face to the name.
I keep thinking "John Mulaney," another non-player character who had a TV series for a minute or two.
Beto and Buttigieg look like a postmodernist, deconstructionist take on the Kennedy phenomenon. Where the original Jack and Bobby created an appealing and harmonious facade and hid all the awkward and ugly structural elements in the background, the new guys show all the innards that keep the thing standing (or fail to keep it standing), and do without the attractive surface.
Four years ago, we were told that Jeb was the guy for the R's. Had all the money and connections... he was a shoe-in.
Seems so long ago. There we were, watching our Washington Generals have tryouts. Wondering what we could do to help them become a winning team again. Heated discussions on whether Coach Rove was too hard or too easy on them. And what the hell does General Manager McConnell think he's doing, trading away a star center for so little? Is he playing 3D chess? The long game, not this season, not this hill. Globetrotters only beat us by 3 this time, we'll get em next year...
What a waste of time that was.
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