March 25, 2019

"Iowa 2020: Biden and Sanders neck and neck in Democratic Field, Mayor Pete jumps to double digits."

It's Emerson’s second poll of the Iowa caucus.
... former Vice President Joe Biden narrowly leads the Democratic field with 25%, followed by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders at 24%. Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana has surged to 11%. Senator Kamala Harris of California follows with 10% - the only other candidate to clear double digits in Iowa....
Buttigieg was at 0% in the previous Emerson poll, in January.
Sanders maintains a lead among 18-29 year olds with 44%, followed by Buttigieg with 22%. Biden leads among all other age groups with 32% support among 30-49 year olds, 29% among 50-64 year olds, and 31% among those 65 years or older. [Spencer Kimball, Director of the Emerson Poll] notes that, “If Buttigieg is able to maintain his momentum, his candidacy appears to be pulling from the same demographic of young voters as Sanders, and that could become a problem for Sanders.”
Kamala Harris — who I've believed is the media's favorite — doesn't seem to be getting traction. And:
When looking at potential general election matchups, all are within margin of error, except for Trump against Harris, where the President leads 54% to 46% to Harris. Sanders and Biden are the only Democratic contenders in Iowa to receive more support than the President; Biden has a 6 point advantage, and Sanders has a 2 point advantage.
If beating Trump is the Democrats #1 concern, Harris is especially bad. I wonder why?!

ADDED: Maybe Harris's biggest problem is that people can tell the media is foisting her on us. That's the main problem I have with her. Let's have a fair competition among all the candidates. Don't try to clear the path for one person. That's what they did twice for Hillary Clinton. We're onto that. We're beyond immune. We're actively resistant.

ALSO: Buttigieg supporters should resist the effort to switch to calling him Mayor Pete. If he is to be believable as a presidential candidate, we need to be able to say his name. If we have the affection to switch to a first name basis — as with Bernie — it should just be Pete. There's no other Pete. Not running for President and really not in any current context.

Pete Seeger died. Pete Sampras, Pete Rose — they don't play anymore. Pete Townshend — he's quite old and out of the range of politics. The only Pete I can think of who ran for President was Pete Du Pont, who had been Governor of Delaware and, term limited out in 1985, "was widely expected by many to challenge the incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Joe Biden," but instead made a long-shot run for the GOP presidential nomination in 1988. Biden also ran for President in 1988. We're still talking about Joe Biden, but who remembers Pete Du Pont?

70 comments:

daskol said...

Spent the weekend with a bunch of hardcore Trump haters, and not a one was excited about any of these people except for Peter whatshisname, which nobody could pronounce--he's got the kind of credentials and presentation (Rhodes scholar) that impresses this class. My wife, not a political creature but a tribal Democrat, can't stand Kamala. Just rubs her the wrong way, and that's despite an ethnic affinity I'd have thought would have endeared Kamala. Have to assume it's the Willie Brown/screwing her way into politics thing.

Mike said...

So another white guy (but less old) joins the top group. Hmmm. Really, what does this tell us about Democrat voters? Nothing. This only tells us that Democrat poll answer-ers want the oldish white guys. Big difference from what the voters might want. I'm looking forward to the first primary next year, but kinda fascinated by this huge crowd vying to get noticed among the known-name old white men.

Henry said...

"Someone else" is polling at 4% -- that's not bad. That 4% better than Kirsten Gillibrand.

4% for Kirsten Gillibrand is shocking to me. Is her name recognition really that bad?

Kudos to Pete B., btw.

dustbunny said...

She doesn’t connect outside of her bubble. Pete seems to be able to reach independents. It’s a talent I’m not sure Harris can learn to fake.

SDaly said...

Why? I think whatever crazy policies people favor, they want someone who is authentic. I dislike both of them, but Biden and Sanders reek of authenticity. The rest of the field, not so much. Pete the Mayor also seems authentic -- people have not seen his image being manufactured on cable news or been exposed to the glaring contradictions of what he claims to believe and what he did/said earlier in his political career.

Gunner said...

BuddhaButtJudge was fawned over by the hags on The View, so that explains his jump in name recognition. The Soap Opera Women have found a new gay bestie!

Birkel said...

Some of the "candidates" are not really running.
They are political operatives who hope to gain E-mail lists they can sell/give to the national party.

The mayor is not a real candidate.
He may not know that.

Henry said...

I meant 0% for the Gillibrand of course.

Unknown said...

"If beating Trump is the Democrats #1 concern, Harris is especially bad. I wonder why?!"
This poll is of Iowa voters. Perhaps intersectional positioning is less of a factor there than with the MSM. Also, she lets her nastiness and insincerity show to a greater degree than most.

Henry said...

Mike said..
This only tells us that Democrat poll answer-ers want the oldish white guys.

Democrat poll answer-ers in Iowa, remember.

Henry said...

This is Iowa. I'm not sure the Iowans are paying attention to which candidate the New York Times is celebrating at the moment.

Has the Des Moines Register offered up a puff piece to the Gods?

campy said...

"If beating Trump is the Democrats #1 concern, Harris is especially bad. I wonder why?!"

AmeriKKKa's systemic and pervasive racism and sexism, obviously.

EDH said...

Since defeating Trump will be the loadstar, slowly replacing the traditional left-right political spectrum in many quarters of the Democratic primary will be the frivolous-serious spectrum.

Although the two spectra are correlated, you see Bernie at least for the time being viewed as a serious candidate, if not a serious contender in the general election.

Harris, like Booker and some others, comes across as a lightweight.

Buttigieg right now is a strong “serious” play with the least known frivolity and associated baggage.

traditionalguy said...

What do we do for entertainment now? We could Declassify the secrets of the Coup e’tat. And watch the resignations, suicides and arrests follow.

Mike said...

Biden and Sanders reek of authenticity.

What? A "socialist" who owns three houses and is a multimillionaire (which he did NOT get by being socialistic); and a serial plagiarizer who changes tack with every political breeze? Those guys reek of "authenticity"? They reek of something, I'll agree. Sanders I would call "sincere" as far as his ability to feign sincerity about his wish to bring wholesale destruction to the United States by imposing socialism on it. He does seem kooky enough to believe that shit!

Biden is a cipher. He says whatever the audience in front of him wants to hear. And he's creepy toucher of little girls in public, to the point he freaks them out. THIS should somewhat freak out the voter too, I would think. Especially when coupled with Slow Joe's habit of walking around naked in front of his female Secret Service detail. That's creepy too. Authentically creepy!

traditionalguy said...

Beto for the win. He is entertainment.

Ralph L said...

Harris's name has been around the block a bit, but Brown-noshing is what she's most known for.

Boot edge edge is still shiny and new.

Chuck said...

"Pete" DuPont was actually "Pierre," right?

And there was Pete Wilson of California who ran in 1996.

walter said...

All these white men are avacados in the punch bowl for the SJW/intersectional crowd.
I mean..Pete's hubby could steal the female position of 1st lady.
"Like..it's so...meh."

hawkeyedjb said...

There is little difference in the Democratic candidates, and none of them has ever expressed an original idea. These are not leaders or thinkers. But they don't need to be - the party is seeking the most palatable candidate to carry out what will be the same agenda, regardless which of them ends up opposing Trump. The platform will be a massive expansion of the cost, power and intrusiveness of government, and the wrecking of much of the industrial economy. It matters not whether they run a smiling nobody or an angry old socialist.

This is also why Trump is so hated by official Washington, both R and D. He didn't run to advance anybody's agenda, unlike all the plastic mediocrities lining up to read someone else's words on their teleprompters.

Bob Boyd said...

Affection for peter makes Pete a viable candidate. It's a qualifier, not a disqualifier now.

Browndog said...

A week or two ago, Rush Limbaugh mentioned Mayor Pete. He saw him on a panel at SXSW. Rush said "watch out for this guy...that's all I'm going to say".

Then, went on to say he was well spoken, succinct, and didn't sound crazy like the rest of the dem field.

SDaly said...

My point about them reeking of authenticity did not claim that they weren't hypocrites or imbeciles. And I said I can't stand either of them (for the reasons you describe).

To Democrat voters, Bernie's socialism comes across as sincere, despite his personal hypocrisy.

Biden comes across as sincere because his entire persona is that he is gasbag too stupid to understand what he is saying at any given moment. He is your older relative opining on things he knows nothing about, contradicting whatever he said earlier so that he can be the center of attention.

M Jordan said...

This election will be Reagan vs. Dukakis in 1972. Trump vs. Mayor Pete. Trump is Reagan who, after two years of dismal approval numbers, soared to reelection. Mayor Pete is Dukakis in so many ways: looks, dispassion, reasoning, and even ethnicity, Maltese/Greek. And it’s 1972 all over again because of the R facing a too-liberal for ‘Murica moment.

Landslide.

Inga...Allie Oop said...

I imagine that those who can’t be bothered to learn how to pronounce Mayor Buttigieg’s name could just call him Mayor Pete and in future President Pete, that has a nice ring to it. Have a great day!

Michael K said...

Sanders maintains a lead among 18-29 year olds with 44%,

Bernie is Daddy.

iowan2 said...

Has the Des Moines Register offered up a puff piece to the Gods?
The Register is Gannett owned and indistinguishable from USA Today, in form and substance.

tcrosse said...

It's possible now that the Democrat Nomination has become a poison chalice.
"The pellet with the poison's in the vessel with the pestle; the chalice from the palace has the brew that is true!"

robother said...

Does anyone know the Old Norse for "Rock"?

jwl said...

Mike - "A "socialist" who owns three houses ..."

I would say socialist with three houses, while complaining about rich people, that were paid for with public money is very authentic when it comes to socialist governments. Nomenklatura always do well in communist systems, it is everyone else who is expected to suffer, while elite are pampered.

Ficta said...

I assume the good people (and Democrats are always the Good People) of Iowa are reasonably color blind. Beyond the difference of race, Harris is, basically, the same person who lost last time.

Sally327 said...

I thought the trick to Iowa is organizing because it's a caucus state. The polls are kind of meaningless aren't they? Ask Howard Dean, etc. And Indiana is almost next door, right? One state over, so maybe Pete is also getting that benefit to the extent he's jumped up in the polls. Maybe getting more earned media as almost a local boy, etc.

I am resistant to polls because they were so wrong in 2016.

Phidippus said...

All I can say is this group of Dem retreads reminds me of the zombies in George Romero's "Night of the Living Dead". They stagger around aimlessly, but when they catch sight of you, they start to shamble feebly in your direction. Dead, but still moving, they no awareness of why.

What a bunch of phonies! Every single one of them, including the "sincere" ones.

Like the police captain said in the movie, "They go down pretty easy. They're dead. They're all... messed up."

Unless he dies, or gets caught in bed with a "live boy or a dead girl", Trump will win in 2020 walking away.

wildswan said...

Peter B Gramsci Man grew up an intersectionalist because his father was a Gramsci believer and was appointed as Gramsci's translator for the American edition. His background is Maltese so his cultural trend is like Gramsci's, i.e., his family came from the poor southern half of Europe. And now he lives among the Deplorables. But really he is one of the globalists. He went to Harvard and got a Rhodes scholarship. As Mayor he helped revive South Bend by gentrifying run-down sections. He worked to create a town where the professoriate and their hangers-on centered on Notre Dame could think they were in New York or San Francisco. He didn't work to revive manufacturing which would help the black and Hispanic communities whose members do not have college degrees. And his gentrifying displaced existing black and Hispanic communities as it always does.

It's like Madison, a tale of two cities and Pete was mayor of the richer one. I'd like to see the school scores in the other, the subaltern South Bend, the part that is not centered on Notre Dame. And I know that if manufacturing ever comes back to South Bend to help those without a college education lead decent lives (and maybe get their children into Notre Dame) it will be due to Mike Pence or Donald Trump, not Mayor Gramscian Man.

William said...

Buttigieg's appearance and delivery far outweigh his substance and experience. He takes the standard liberal line on everything, but drivels on like he's saying something reasonable and moderate. The Obama effect. He's got sharp creases.

Inga...Allie Oop said...

President Pete does have a ring to it, seriously though, I’m quite sure many gay haters will continue to call him “Buttplug” as we saw repeated here just the other day.

Big Mike said...

... but who remembers Pete Du Pont?

I do, actually.

Ray - SoCal said...

I’m surprised Harris is not doing as well with the Democratic Base.

My guess is the other choices are perceived as better.

I view her as shrewish, incompetent, and not ready for prime time. But, I don’t think there has been any coverage in the msm of that... perhaps blowback from the Kavanaugh hearings? Or as mentioned the sleeping her way into politics. Supposedly there are pictures out there, but perhaps they are being treated like the khalidi tapes?

Oso Negro said...

Prediction - a homosexual named Buttigieg is not going to be the next President of the United States. No matter if he is the sweetest, nicest boy-next-door mayor, a veteran of the military, or whatever. Just wait until the Democrat contenders get down and dirty with his background.

Kevin said...

You won, I finally cared enough about Theranos to watch the documentary. If I'm not mistaken, my mouth actually made an upside down smile when I heard her voice, like I was a cartoon character reacting to something horrific.

Anyway, I think the Theranos story will have an impact, however subtle, on the fates of the women in the race, because it's going to be impossible to watch the Democrat women mouthing empty leftist platitudes without thinking of psychopathic sanpaku-eyed Elizabeth Holmes doing the same.

Charlie said...

Pete DuPont was actually Pierre du Pont IV. As I recall, Dole used to derisively refer to him as Pierre in the primary debates of 1988.

Henry said...

@Inga -- I'm going for Pete B.

hawkeyedjb said...

"... if manufacturing ever comes back to South Bend to help those without a college education lead decent lives..."

It will be The Party's worst nightmare.

exhelodrvr1 said...

Sally,
"Ask Howard Dean, etc"
At the moment, he's a little busy screaming.

exhelodrvr1 said...

And if he is in favor of reducing nuclear weapons, we can call him SaltPeter. I'm pretty sure he'd be up to that.

rehajm said...

Opium of the people.* Have fun with all these new toys now but there will be a coronation later.

(*Yes I know opium is the opium of the people but work with me here...)

Aunty Trump said...

I’m quite sure many gay haters...

What is hateful about that? Are you a German American hater if you call Trump Drumpf? Or tRump? It just jumps out from his name. I have gay friends, I don’t hate them, but I can’t not see “Buttplug” when I see his name. I didn’t even know he was gay at first. Oh, and I don’t think that being gay is either a disqualification or a qualification for the job. But you sure do seem to spend a lot of time imagining that other people have hate in their hearts. Maybe you are the one with hate in your heart if you think that that is hateful.

Is this one more case where we are going to have a person in American politics who can’t be mocked? Is that your goal?

Sebastian said...

"Maybe Harris's biggest problem is that people can tell the media is foisting her on us. That's the main problem I have with her."

So media support is a bigger problem than her ideas or experience or political preferences?

"Don't try to clear the path for one person. That's what they did twice for Hillary Clinton. We're onto that. We're beyond immune. We're actively resistant."

Who dat "we"? Liberal female Dem voters?

SDaly said...

Dole used to derisively refer to him as Pierre in the primary debates of 1988

I'm waiting for Trump to mispronounce "Beto" as "Gringo."

Mike said...

Mayor Pete’s name is pronounced Booty-gig. That is just one reason he won’t catch fire.

Birkel said...

The only du Pont I remember is the crazy one who killed the wrestler.
He's dead now.

Big Mike said...

Maybe Harris's biggest problem is that people can tell the media is foisting her on us.

Maybe we should consider her the first casualty of the Mueller report? Maybe people feel that if the Post and the Times and CNN and CBS and NBC, et.al., were lying about Russia! Russia! Russia! then they are probably also lying about the fitness of Kamala Harris to be President? Interesting conjecture.

walter said...

Mike,
Not according the Pete Merch! store.

Bob Boyd said...

Pete said to pronounce his name Boot-edge-edge.

Boot-edge-edge

Yancey Ward said...

Polling this is irrelevant. I remember 2004 very well- Dean was going to win Iowa for months in a landslide and finished 3rd to two people who were considered the walking dead until December of 2003 (polling single digits).

Harris will poll better once the campaign actually starts in the early Fall. Don't pay any attention to the polls until you have the first debates between the top 6- it is there the the name recognition factor starts to even out- right now I think less than 10% of the caucus goers even know who Harris is. And if the polling question breaks down to Buttieg, the gay mayor, then he gets the "not that there is anything wrong with that" support- in other words- soft support.

Rae said...

If Buttigieg were a Republican we'd be hearing non stop anal sex jokes. But Pete is a Dem, so he has a halo-like glow about him that deflects criticism.

Johnathan Birks said...

You're overlooking Pete Domenici, Peter King, Pete Wilson, "Pistol" Pete Maravich, Pete Postlethwaite, Peter Drinklage and Peter the Great.

All of them have exactly the same chance as Mayor Pete of winning the nomination.

Bay Area Guy said...

A few thoughts re Senator Kamala Harris:

1. Sucking one famous, powerful (blank) can get you the District Attorney jog in San Francisco.

2. But, she's gonna have to suck a lot more famous and powerful (blanks) to win Iowa.

Michael Fitzgerald said...

Mayor Pete. Sounds like a character from Mister Roger's Neighborhood. How about we call him Pee Wee.

Annie C said...

I only remember Pete du Pont because I was living in Philly during the whole John du Pont murder of that wrestler and resulting trial. The entire du Pont family was constantly being dissected in the news.

They often mentioned Pete as one of the sane members of the family.

exhelodrvr1 said...

Bay Area Guy,
And that's corn-fed pork in Iowa!!

walter said...

If he ran on the top with Inslee for veep, could be P.B. & Jay

Achilles said...

Inga...Allie Oop said...
President Pete does have a ring to it, seriously though, I’m quite sure many gay haters will continue to call him “Buttplug” as we saw repeated here just the other day.

As you well know buttplug's were for incontinence. There is nothing anti-gay about them.

But you have to slander the people you disagree with.

It is all you people have.

You are the party of hate.

Achilles said...

I just went through Buttigieg's twitter page.

He is the best democrat running.

Pro's:

1. He will put a stake through the heart of the Conservative opposition to gay marriage. You all need to get over it. You lost.

2. He talks about faith in a leftist context. It will preclude him from winning but it is a good thing.

Con's:

1. Open borders. Let everyone in. Wants to end our country.

2. Looks socialist. He can talk about faith all he wants but he will kill millions of people with his policies.

3. He is a Global Warming hoaxer. He blamed the flooding in Nebraska on global warming. He may be intelligent, but he is an idiot.

0_0 said...

Harris has zero ideas. She has accomplished nothing. She fizzled in her chance to shine at the Kavanaugh hearing.
All she has going for her is her gender and her skin color. We shall see for whom that is enough.

Aunty Trump said...

Booty-gig

He does have those rent boy good looks.

Francisco D said...

President Pete does have a ring to it, seriously though, I’m quite sure many gay haters will continue to call him “Buttplug” as we saw repeated here just the other day.

Are you trying to guilt me for making a name joke, Inga?

I was not aware that buttplugs were something that only gay men used. Actually, I am not quite sure what it is, but it is a funny name.

Get a sense of humor. You sound plugged up.

Aunty Trump said...

Blogger Bob Boyd said...
Pete said to pronounce his name Boot-edge-edge.


Sorry, it’s Booty-gig.

DannyG said...

I'd sooner vote for Pete-the-Cat!

Phidippus said...

Achilles:

"2. He talks about faith in a leftist context. It will preclude him from winning and it is a good thing."

FIFY.

A good thing in both possible senses, I might add.