"Millions of people are internally displaced or are refugees in Iran and Pakistan. Poppy cultivation is up four times over 2002. Despite years of economic and military aid, Afghanistan remains one of the least developed countries in the world. Afghan security forces, which were supposed to take over from NATO troops, have lost a staggering 45,000 soldiers in battle since 2014 and can’t fill their recruitment targets. Mr. Trump’s administration — which announced it would withdraw 7,000 troops but has yet to do so — is now negotiating with the Taliban, talks that are scheduled to continue this month. That’s a promising sign of a much-needed acknowledgment of reality. It is time to face the cruel truth that at best, the war is deadlocked, and at worst, it is hopeless.... Recent talks between the United States and the Taliban appear to have made encouraging progress. Those talks might be most accurately described as a negotiated capitulation by the international forces. The Afghan government hasn’t been party to the discussions because the Taliban doesn’t consider it a legitimate entity — just a puppet of the United States. In any case, once NATO forces leave, any treaty with the Taliban would be difficult to enforce.... If efforts to deal with international terrorism are to be sustainable indefinitely, they need to rely principally on intelligence and interdiction, diplomacy and development — not war without aim or end."
From "End the War in Afghanistan/It is time to bring American soldiers back home" by the NYT Editorial Board.
February 4, 2019
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they need to rely principally on intelligence and interdiction, ...
The same approach ultimately chosen by the Brits. In the days before bombers, they called it
"Butcher and Bolt"
PS: A-stan is not a country. It is a line on a map around parts of lots of ethnic groups. There is no Afghan language, no grouping of people and no culture other than banditry and pillage.
I hate to agree with the NYT, but...
It was clear while we were over there DC did not want to defeat the taliban.
We could have wiped them out in a month.
We were held back on purpose.
Afghanistan was stupid. All of it.
Do they mention that they supported candidate Obama in 2008? And 8 years later supported his Secretary of State?
Senator Obama says America must shift its defense resources from Iraq to Afghanistan, which he sees as ground zero for any war on terrorism. He says he would remove one or two brigades a month from Iraq, and get all combat troops out within 16 months.
Wow, the NYT listening to Trump.
Bring Afghan officers to the US for real training and otherwise let Afghanistan solve Afghanistan's problems.
The argument for staying gets weaker by the year. The main argument for staying is that when the Taliban win after the US withdrawal, which would be the result, they will put to the sword every member of the present Afghan government in Kabul and the other cities along with their families and supporters. This isn't an argument without moral substance, but the facts are that the Afghanis are dying by the thousands in any case, and will continue to do so for as long as the US remains in the country. Unless you can come up with an strategy that alters the present trajectory, then staying isn't really an option- you withdraw now or later.
Bush and his commanders were idiots for getting this deeply involved in the first place, and Obama and his were idiots for not ending it, too. Trump and his will be idiots if they also end up staying.
I had a single deployment to AStan in 2008. I have traveled to and lived in approximately 30+ countries.
I say this - unequivocally - that I have never seen a more dysfunctional, dysgenic and backward facing culture than that of Afghanistan. They are CAVE (Citizens Against Virtually Everything) people on steroids. Their monolithic world views on the things they can agree on (which are exceedingly few) are so base that those things - and them alone - are largely responsible for their antagonistic tenacity in the face of so many adversaries down through the ages.
I came away convinced - as have so many military forces before - that the only way to truly win military and politically there was to kill every single last one of them, which of course is impossible and immoral.
They relish and enjoy their poverty and choose it consciously over other options. Those that don't are then attacked mercilessly by their neighbors or neighboring tribes to ensure that they don't get access to other options. This is why so many choose to simply leave the country and why so many have not returned.
I have no hope for that land.
Either we kill half of the population as a warning to the other half if they don't behave themselves we will finish the rest of them off or pull out completely and terminate commercial relationships with any country that continues commercial relationships with them. They are what they are and its either isolation or destruction. Think of them as a disease like Somalia. Nothing good ever comes from them.
As a practical matter, or best choice is butcher and bolt.
I guess that makes it unanimous.
The New York Times agrees with a Trump policy. The rapture must be very near.
When you have to rhetorically add "traumatized" to get your Big Scary Number, I stop taking your reporting seriously.
Thanks, Times.
(Especially because they might not be entirely wrong about Afghanistan! But when they have to resort to rhetorical tactics like that, it undermines the thesis.
Don't inflate the numbers if you have a strong case. Inflating the numbers is for people who have a weak case and need to convince you anyway.)
A-stan is not a country. It is a line on a map around parts of lots of ethnic groups.
Actually, Afghanistan is a place on the map where there doesn't happen to be any countries.
Not sure I believe the stat that Afghan has "lost 45,000 troops since 2014" if by "lost: they mean killed in action. I could believe the 45,000 if they are including desertions, etc.
Definitely time to get out of Afghanistan. They helped hit us in 2001. We hit back hard. And, for some reason, the "war" won't ever end.
But I would definitely be open to hearing a good argument - John Bolton? - on why it's important to stay, and what our current objective is.
Relocate them all to Ilhan Omar's district.
But, but...the Intel Reports! Petreus. Mad Dog. Richard Haas. Mika Joe.
Within a month, strike that, 24 hours, of NATO leaving Afghanistan, another 9-11 attack will occur. Only this time, with Saddam's missing WMDs. Let it be on your heads, TImesmen and Trumpeteers. The Military Industrial Complex has spoken.
So was the editorial headline, "Trump is right"?
Do they mention that they supported candidate Obama in 2008? And 8 years later supported his Secretary of State?
Senator Obama says America must shift its defense resources from Iraq to Afghanistan, which he sees as ground zero for any war on terrorism. He says he would remove one or two brigades a month from Iraq, and get all combat troops out within 16 months.
This doesn't really matter since we all knew he was lying about this in addition to his lying about gay marriage.
This doesn't really matter since we all knew he was lying about this
Unfortunately, he wasn't lying about this. He boldly declared a disastrous foreign policy and followed through.
Shithole country.
Rick: "This doesn't really matter since we all knew he was lying about this in addition to his lying about gay marriage."
Tread carefully. Criticism of obama is a Quick Trigger for LLR Chuck.
No Obama deliberately sandbagged mcrystal and Petraeus counter insurgency strategy delaying on bidens sage advice, snorfle.
When I watched Dan Coats and the crew sitting there testifying on behalf of eternal warfare my blood boiled.
Currently the US Military protects the provincial War/Drug Lords from the Taliban and the Kabul government. At least that's how I see it.
We started out destroying their poppy fields and the locals, in turn, supported the Taliban and fought against us. So we stopped and the dynamic changed.
Of course, when we leave, the Taliban will go after the poppy fields. So how will this new dynamic play out? Back to civil war - which the Taliban quashed in their previous iterations. Will the new civil war be the Taliban against everyone else? Will the CIA go back to semi-secretly supporting the "everyone else" faction?
The one thing I think I know, Afghanistan will never go back to the it was in the '70s and before.
[Obama] boldly declared a disastrous foreign policy and followed through.
Untrue. He did essentially nothing in Afghanistan because its sole use to him was providing cover for his Iraq withdrawal. Since that was such a disaster he never got back to Afghanistan.
I suspect the NY Times Editorial Board is so full of morons I can barely be expected to comment on their comments.
Criticism of obama is a Quick Trigger for LLR Chuck.
You'd have to read his comments for that to matter.
Pull out and bombs away.
To be fair, as many or more Afghans would have been killed in the last 18 years by the various ongoing wars, and the Taliban itself. They were and still are all for wiping out the Shiite Hazara, just to note one of their hobbies, and the purging of other minorities.
So as to body counts, its unlikely that there would have been fewer no matter what the US did.
Send in women. Boobs on the ground.
When I watched Dan Coats and the crew sitting there testifying on behalf of eternal warfare my blood boiled.
I didn't see this, but it would make my blood boil too. We fought WWII and won in 4 years. Now, the military model seems to be fight, and don't win, forever.
" sitting there testifying on behalf of eternal warfare "
The US was in a state of low level warfare, almost always in some desultory Indian campaign or occasional uprising, since it was founded. My wife's ancestor, also an ancestor of noted Cold War historian John Lewis Gaddis, was a Virginia militia officer who spent the American Revolution fighting on that other front of that war, against the Indians.
And that never ended until the 1890's. And then the US immediately found several other frontiers in which to fight little wars, for a few decades more. And then you had the long Cold War with a bunch of other little wars. And then...
Face it, for such a huge and powerful empire as you've got, there will always be a war. You aren't Denmark.
We take off. Nuke the site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.
Rick, I agree with your editorial stance -- that Obama intentionally waxed hawkish about Afghanistan as cover for leaving Iraq, but whatever the war policy, the troop strength isn't in dispute:
Between 2009 and 2011 Obama essentially quadrupled U.S. troop strength.
And for what? So he could say Afghanistan was more important than Iraq.
All Trump is saying, is give peace a chance.
I suppose that the Afghans insist on death and poverty. Clearly, they can do that on their own without our help. Only politicians could find a way for that to cost billions and take decades. Afghanistan is Gaia's butthole surrounded by miles of ass.
the troop strength isn't in dispute:
I don't think the troop strength is a different "policy". It's exactly the evolution I'd expect to result from a lack of attention. As military leaders figure out they can't accomplish their mission as defined the only lever they have available to them is "try harder". So they do.
So he could say Afghanistan was more important than Iraq.
I don't think the relative importance of the countries is the core issue. Dems seem to believe a willingness to support some military action is an electoral requirement so Obama needed to show withdrawal from Iraq didn't mean universal withdrawal.
Hillary Clinton supported the Libya invasion to achieve the same effect.
Tulsi Gabbard just announced that she is running for President to protect Hawaiin Islands from nuclear missile attacks like the one in early 2017 caused by the war monger Trump's challenging the Norks, the Russians and the Red Chinese to war.
Her narrative is totally imaginary , so she must have a Democrat campaign advisor. But like the NYT, the narrative ignores that Trump is solely in trouble with the Deep State for ending the continuous war racket.
The Afghan insanity was never a winnable war. But it was a doable war.
We live in Interesting Times.
Good. I hope Donald gets it done before Mueller counts his coup.
Jessie Kelly in The Federalist: Congress' Vote To Keep War In Afghanistan Sells out American Soldiers
Howard puts partisanship over peace.
Afghans will be left to their own devices, which will be sad for those among them who want to live ordinary lives. Google up pictures of Afghanistan in the 1970s - the place was becoming civilized, and had a chance to be modern. The last 40 years have been cruel, as the invaders and then the primitives took over. It looks like the primitives will now win and the country will regress several hundred years. The only modern things in Afghanistan will be the military assets in the hands of the medievalists.
What will an allied pull-out mean for Afghanistan's neighbors?
Does NYT realize that the Taliban is anti-woman, anti-gay, anti-trans?
"Afghanistan is Gaia's butthole surrounded by miles of ass."
Its not exactly of great strategic significance. Its the wasteland beyond the neglected back yards of two second rate nations, Pakistan and Iran. Its got no ports, no railroads, and the roads through it go from nothing of importance to nowhere better.
Its a good place to make trouble from however, especially given modern transport and communications. Come with money and pay the locals to ignore you.
In addition to wanting to turn their backs on the victims of the Taliban, the people of the NYT infamously turned their backs on the Jews in Europe in the 1930-40s.
No longer the "good war".
Mark said, "Does NYT realize that the Taliban is anti-woman, anti-gay, anti-trans?"
Not anti-gay or anti-trans in the strictest sense as much as pro-pedophilia. They love diddling kids when they get a chance. Maybe that's why the support from NYT...NYT loves kiddie-diddlers.
We either have to turn our backs or declare total war on a country that may have little strategic value, but shares borders with China, for example, Iran, Pakistan... Then, suppose we win, do we round up the defeated, but surviving Taliban and put them on welfare in reservations? Which country is next?
Fuck it. We should have just bombed the shit out of Tora Bora and left then.
In Afghanistan the kiddie-diddlers are the good guys.
The Taliban was dead-set against that, officially anyway.
Call that part of it, at least, a clash between folk-culture and Islamic modernism. The Taliban were the modernists (yes, really), who, at least to a degree, have actually read their books, and take them seriously. The other side were the more native, traditionalist sorts who keep to their ancient folkways, including, well, you know.
The conflicts here cut in many weird directions.
"but shares borders with China"
Afghanistan technically has a border with China, but its not much of one.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghanistan%E2%80%93China_border
Its not exactly a major transportation route, being a high valley suitable only for pack animals IIRC.
Exactly opposite of what I said, Tim.
another fmr colony from the time of Palmerston:
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world/the-godfathers-who-pull-the-strings-in-nigerias-election/ar-BBTaC8E
you know a scorecard to know all the players
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2019/02/irgc-led-afghan-pakistani-militias-criticize-us-terror-designation-stop-short-of-direct-threats.php
just the largest law firm in the state, folks,
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-04/trump-linked-lobbyists-help-nigerian-politician-gain-u-s-access?cmpid=socialflow-twitter
business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=business&utm_source=twitter
founded by the senior democratic senator, spessard Holland,
Rick: "You'd have to read his comments for that to matter."
You're very clever Mr. Rick. Very clever indeed...though I assure you not clever enough to escape from this tank full of sharks!! (..Advances menacingly..)
The most adventure-filled day of my travels across Asia in the mid-70's was a bus ride I took from Chaman, north of Quetta in Baluchistan, to Kandahar. Along the way:
I was stoned by Baluchi nomad tribesmen as soon as I walked across the border. (we westerners had to get off and get our passports stamped, while the local stayed on the bus, which waited for us a mile or so down the road at Spin Boldak.)
The Baluchis threw ineffectively, "like girls" as we said then, so I responded by going all James Coburn on them ("Magnificent Seven") by picking up and pitching a baseball-sized fastball back at a sign by the side of the road, hitting it with a loud and satisfying thunk. They dropped their stones and melted back into their tents.
The passenger section of the bus was now full by the time we reached it, so I wound up sitting on a spare tire in the back, which was divided from the front with sturdy bars.
Across from me was a very sorrowful-looking Afghan shackled, manacled and bookended by two tough Mongol-looking policemen, apparently from the Northwest of the country.
Passengers up front kept warning me, "Very dangerous! Very dangerous!", but I figured the policemen would keep the prisoners under control. So I whiled away my time trading dollars for afghanis at extortionate exchange rates with two of the Afghans, all turbaned and dressed as Osama himself also did, sitting on tires in the back. No English, just gestures, finger counting, and yes/no did the trick.
Halfway down to Khandahar we paused for a Piss 'n Pray stop, passengers up front spreading out their prayer rugs on one side of the bus and going round to pee on the other. As he stepped off, the prisoner raised a big cloud of dust when his shackles hit the ground.
Arriving late afternoon in Kandahar, we found the conditions appalling. Filthy ponds, people leaving their excrement everywhere (SFO-style), and a general atmosphere of listless poverty: that's what greeted us.
Before the day was over I saw some poor guy tied to a kiosk in the middle of the street being whipped. Indiana Jones material.
Needless to say, I couldn't wait to get out of there. Kabul turned out to be a bit better, but not by much.
Happily, India and the rest of South and East Asia turned out to be wonderful places to see and experience.
The bloodiest and most expensive phase of the futile war in Afghanistan was under Obama . . . and pretty much nobody actually knows that, because the news media did its best to suppress the knowledge. As does this editorial, which only talks about Obama wanting to pull troops out faster.
Substantially more than twice as many Americans died in Afghanistan in 2009-2016 (1758) than in the rest of the war combined (661). Ten times as many Americans died in the year Obama was endorsed by the New York Times for re-election (310) than have died under the first two years of Trump (31). The "sunk costs" the editorial mentions were sunk by Obama. Insofar as the war in Afghanistan has been a mistake, it was a mistake of Obama's, and thus in a democracy of the people who supported him.
"Mr. Trump’s administration — which announced it would withdraw 7,000 troops but has yet to do so —"
Agreeing with Trump while dissing him. Sigh. BTW, don't know, but what did the NYT say when Trump announced he'd withdraw 7,000 troops? Did they say great, but better do it before February?
Afghanistan from where it was pre 9-11 has improved a lot. It should be a lot better, but incompetent/ corrupt reconstruction and a civil was pushed by Pakistan, Iran, and a bit Russia.
I was surprised at the vote McConnell just did...
I would expect 3x the casualty by the Taliban. Unfortunately they are gaining districts. It was the wrong solution to attempt tonput in a centralized government, verses one more decentralized with more power to the provinces.
Time to step away from the neocons New World Order plans and get the troops out of Afghanistan. We cannot bring the world up to Western standards. If the Taliban come to an accord that lets us leave without incident, fine. If they don't, then settle all scores (like Michael Corleone leaving Long Island) on the way out including destroying all the poppy fields. Spend that money on the wall.
"We cannot bring the world up to Western standards."
It was never about that to begin with. Our wars are never about that.
Agreeing with Trump while dissing him. Sigh. BTW, don't know, but what did the NYT say when Trump announced he'd withdraw 7,000 troops? Did they say great, but better do it before February?
Well...how long does it take? If we're going to remove our troops--long overdue--remove them.
Howard said...
Good. I hope Donald gets it done before Mueller counts his coup.
2/4/19, 2:40 PM
tim in vermont said...
Howard puts partisanship over peace.
2/4/19, 2:44 PM
No worries, Tim, Howard never believes a single thing he says. In his next post if not his next comment he will be reminding us that the investigation and impeachment threat is all a cod, or a kabuki performance pursuant to some Uniparty deal.
Well...how long does it take? If we're going to remove our troops--long overdue--remove them.
You mean you don't KNOW, Cookie? I thought you knew everything.
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