[And] Trump appears to be backing down from his threat to shut down parts of the federal government over Congress' refusal to give him $5 billion for a wall along the U.S. border with Mexico.I'm interested in what this repositioning suggests — that Trump has a strategy to affect how the Democratic candidates frame their issues and what happens in the primaries. I suspect that it's a 2-step strategy, and later on, after the Democrats have committed to issues and narrowed the field of candidates, Trump can give more attention to his base. It seems that what Trump is doing now is designed — if it is a design — to make it harder for moderate Democrats to gain traction and to boost the more left-wing people who he may think will be easier to defeat in the general election.
The domestic and foreign policy maneuvers are converging partly on Trump's own timetable and partly as a result of the calendar...
... Trump is signaling something bigger to the American public — that he is "starting to bring Americans home from some of these wars and interventions that we’ve been involved in for years and years....
ADDED: If my reading of what Trump is doing is correct, he's flipping the usual strategy, which is to get the base activated and then, as the general election gets closer, move toward the center. In this new strategy, the idea would be to get the other party to make an extreme choice that they'll be stuck with and won't be able to defend.
Ironically, this is what some Democrats thought was a good idea in 2016: Get the GOP to nominate Trump, and then he'll be easily defeated.
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The CJ reforms are failry populist as is getting us out of wars. Him caving on the $5 billion for the wall may not be such a good idea politically though, especially after he made such a public display over it last week.
I don't give a shit about bump stocks, and I'd bet the vast majority of his "base" doesn't either.
Trump caves on the wall, decrees new gun control measures, springs a bunch of criminals from prison, and emulates Obama’s Iraq pullout in Syria. Tell me more about this new strategy for so much winning.
I don't give a shit about bump stocks, and I'd bet the vast majority of his "base" doesn't either.
Which is why it's good strategy. Eliminate a stupid, leftist issue that doesn't really cost him any votes.
Trump says he won't sign the CR without the ^5 Billion for The Wall.
Keep up.
It's not "gun control", but rather "bump stock" control. While it sets some limit to training for organization of a well regulated Militia, it does not affect the other modes which advance that Constitutional imperative.
For Syria, with mitigation of the fallout from premature evacuation from Iraq, the progress of other conflicts and crises in Eurasia and Africa, and Russia's investment and cooperation with the Syrian government to restore peace and order, America's cleanup strategy and defensive investment has, hopefully, reached a well conceived and organized conclusion.
As for criminal justice reform, despite the Twilight Amendment, there is a Constitutional requirement for proportional sentencing, promoting the general Welfare, and restoration of rights once debts to society are repaid.
$
I heard an interesting theory on the bump stock thing. Trump and DOJ are fine with moving forward on a ban with the secret knowledge it would probably be struck down before the supreme court. This is for several reasons...
- Pretty clear violation against the 5th amendment.
- Contrary to popular belief, the government has never been able to adequately define "machine gun" in a way that links the defined capability of machine gun with the components that product the function. I.E. if a bump stock ban is ok, they can effectively designate your trigger finger - any trigger finger - as a machine gun.
- ATF provided letters specifically adjudicating bump stocks "were not machine guns" when they first hit the market. That letter is going to hurt them MASSIVELY in any case that goes before the court.
- Unenforceability. There are likely tens (yes tens) of thousands of these things already out there, meaning this ban would instantly create tens of thousands of potential felons, and do so without an amnesty in a way the 68' and 86' NFA did (i.e. no registry option). I would be surprised if half the ownership population magically lost them...for instance in boating accidents.
God's speed to whoever gets to be the legal guinea pig on this one, but I'm sure that someone will be, and I for one can't wait to watch ATF and DOJ squirm.
Trump Will Not Sign Funding Bill Over ‘Concerns for Border Security’
The pressure from Democrats, businesses, minority leaders, and foreign and domestic special interests, to transform the Constitution and defeat Americans' civil rights must be intense.
Withdrawing from Syria appeals as much to his base as it does "far outside" it. The America First right has been begging for withdraw from foreign entanglements for years. It is the neocon right and what's left of the old cold warriors that care about things like Syria, and they have never really been his "much-talked-about political base."
Imagine if Obama had used pure executive branch regulatory power to ban all bump stocks and confiscate them without compensation to the owners.
I don't own a bump stock, and don't care to. I don't care much about them. But there is going to be litigation, and I am not at all sure that the Trump administration will win.
As for Syria, who is Trump appealing to with that decision? All that I can think of, is the far-libertarian-nativist-wingnut sector of American politics. (Not so much a "wing" of the Republican Party.) Senator Rand Paul was the only public figure I am aware of, who agreed with the decision. Is that Trump broadening his appeal?
As for criminal justice reform, the main upshot of that story was that I was reminded that Jared Kushner's father is an ex-con. Oh, and that White House lobbyist Kim Kardashian liked it too.
n.n said...
Trump Will Not Sign Funding Bill Over ‘Concerns for Border Security’
The pressure from Democrats, businesses, minority leaders, and foreign and domestic special interests, to transform the Constitution and defeat Americans' civil rights must be intense.
Althouse has gotta blog that story!!!!
Right now, the fast-developing news appears to be that the House leadership met with Trump and they were instructed to go back and put on the floor an amended bill that has the wall funding that Trump wanted. Because Trump was feeling pressure from his base and would not sign the Senate-passed CR that lacked the funding.
And now, the prospects of that amended bill passing a House vote looks unlikely!!!!
Bwahahahahaha!!!!
That is EXACTLY what Pelosi was schooling Trump on, in the infamous Oval Office meeting!!!! She told him, "Mr. President, you don't even have the votes in the House to pass it." And Trump snarled back that he could get it passed in the House in "one session" (whatever "one session" was).a
Trump is turning "defeat" into "disaster," and now "humiliation."
I heard an interesting theory on the bump stock thing. Trump and DOJ are fine with moving forward on a ban with the secret knowledge it would probably be struck down before the supreme court. This is for several reasons...
Always a dangerous strategy. Remember W. signed McCain-Feingold knowing it was unconstitutional and the Supremes would throw it out. That worked out well...
With the field so large get two or more Democrats to run.
Banning bump stocks by decree will probably lose in court, which is win-win for President Trump. Can you imagine the left trying to argue for presidential power under Trump? And if he loses, so what -- he can say he tried.
Pulling out of Syria is in line with what Trump campaigned on. The betrayal was in caving to the generals by staying in Afghanistan. And then we found out we had troops in Niger?? Why -- just to get some killed?
Trump is turning "defeat" into "disaster," and now "humiliation."
Hardly. He is dealing with the overlapping and converging interests of special and peculiar interests, foreign and domestic, that are in opposition to Americans' civil rights, and, perhaps incidentally, the long-term interests of emigration reform in Mexico and her southern neighbors. Baby steps.
Doesn't look like Trump has caved on the wall, does it. If he follows through on his threat not to sign the CR without border funding, he base will be more than happy.
Unknown said, Always a dangerous strategy. Remember W. signed McCain-Feingold knowing it was unconstitutional and the Supremes would throw it out. That worked out well...
No doubt, but some things have changed. First, we now have Kavanaugh (roundly pro-2nd) and a conservative majority on the court.
Second, the only major case challenging the 86' NFA (I believe it was Farmer) was effectively railroaded before the court, with the plaintiffs magically failing to show up for the case. I think with a more potent defense, resourced properly, would have a chance to overturn precedent.
Third, as I mentioned above, we're not dealing with a small population of survivalist nutcases here anymore. Now, post-Heller, with an estimated 20 million AR15 rifles in circulation, ATF letters supporting these devices (and others that appear to violate the spirit of the NFA), and further advances in firearms tech rendering judgement after judgement irrelevant, does the court want to de-facto take measures that make tens of thousands of new felons over a piece of plastic? Because if they do, they'll have to make more and more of them faster and faster as the line gets blurred due to technology.
It's the art of the deal: Trump is keeping his word to the people on the left who helped him get elected in 2016. The really interesting question is whether they also have a deal for 2020.
Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) said Thursday that President Trump will not sign a stopgap spending bill over concerns about border security, a decision that significantly increases the risk of a government shutdown.
Come on Ann, even Fox News is covering this. Oh, I see Powerline isn't. Oh well.
Conservative talk radio legend Rush Limbaugh revealed on his program that President Donald Trump informed him that he was prepared to veto a government funding bill if it failed to include wall funding.
“The president got word to me 20 minutes ago that if it comes back to him without money, if whatever happens in the House and Senate comes back to him with no allocation of $5 billion for the wall than he’s going to veto it,” Limbaugh told his listeners on his radio show just moments after Trump met with members of Congress on Thursday.
Limbaugh spent most of his program on Wednesday and Thursday urging the president to shut down the government over the wall funding issue, despite Democrats refusal to include extra funding for border security.
“Veto this thing and then head down to Mar-a-Lago,” Limbaugh said, referring to Trump’s vacation plans. “I will meet you on the first tee wherever you want to play golf, whenever, and this will end up being resolved in your favor.”
Trump caves on the wall, decrees new gun control measures, springs a bunch of criminals from prison, and emulates Obama’s Iraq pullout in Syria. Tell me more about this new strategy for so much winning.
Yesterday was Early signing for college football recruits.
What was done here with the quote is declaring from that signing which team is going to be the national champs next year. No, no that's not quite right. My analogy defines the term winning. This quote does nothing to define what winning looks like. The quote sounds thoughtful, but its meaningless
No one but the neocon never Trumpers give a shit about Syria. Criminal justice reform will help him appeal to the AA community. That has got to scare the Dems to death. A bump stick ban doesn't affect most people and most 2nd amendment people aren't purist. So far so good.
The wall is turning into a shitshow. I understand way he would want to push it out until the State of the Union. Then he'd have a stronger Senate majority and a Dem House to blame.
I don't understand this last minute flip. We'll see.
John Pickering said...
Conservative talk radio legend Rush Limbaugh revealed on his program that President Donald Trump informed him that he was prepared to veto a government funding bill if it failed to include wall funding.
“The president got word to me 20 minutes ago that if it comes back to him without money, if whatever happens in the House and Senate comes back to him with no allocation of $5 billion for the wall than he’s going to veto it,” Limbaugh told his listeners on his radio show just moments after Trump met with members of Congress on Thursday.
Limbaugh spent most of his program on Wednesday and Thursday urging the president to shut down the government over the wall funding issue, despite Democrats refusal to include extra funding for border security.
“Veto this thing and then head down to Mar-a-Lago,” Limbaugh said, referring to Trump’s vacation plans. “I will meet you on the first tee wherever you want to play golf, whenever, and this will end up being resolved in your favor.”
I listened to Rush today.
It was hilarious; he was talking about the GoFunMe page for The Wall. Rush said that the goal had been upped, to $1 billion. And Rush informed us that they were now getting close to having raised $5 million. "So they're halfway there," he said.
True story. I am not making this up.
"GoFundMe." Sorry for the typo. Spellcheck wasn't helping on that one.
John Pickering said... [hush][hide comment]
Conservative talk radio legend Rush Limbaugh revealed on his program that President Donald Trump informed him that he was prepared to veto a government funding bill if it failed to include wall funding.
Interesting that J.P. and Chuck are the most dedicated Rush listeners and Fox News watchers on this site.
ISIS or something similar is never going to disappear. Some Muslim wackoes will always be there to be a pain in the ass. (If you don't believe me read "Sword and Scimitar" by Raymond Ibrahim) The 2000 troops we have in Syria are nothing but bad PR waiting to happen. What can we possibly accomplish with 2000 troops other than have them serve as targets for the Jihadists? The same goes for Afghanistan. We are back to having those who would be the first to seek a deferral from service telling us to keep your kids in harms way. Let the Turks and Kurds seek some kind of accommodation based on their relative strengths. Why should we police these guys? Israel will receive our support should she need it. Sanctions - and air power -are much more potent against Iran than having a a regiment of ground pounders serving as sitting ducks 3 or 400 miles away.
July 27, 2017 / 4:56 PM CDT / Updated July 27, 2017 / 5:00 PM CDT
The House passed a $788 billion spending bill Thursday that combines a $1.6 billion down payment for President Donald Trump's controversial border wall with Mexico with a whopping budget increase for the Pentagon.
The 235-192 vote both eases a large backlog of unfinished spending bills and gives Trump and his House GOP allies political wins heading into the August recess. Challenging hurdles remain in front of the measure, however, which will meet with more powerful Democratic opposition in the Senate.
The 326-page measure would make good on longtime GOP promises to reverse an erosion in military readiness. It would give veterans programs a 5 percent increase and fund a 2.4 percent military pay raise.
GOP leaders used the popularity of the Pentagon and veterans programs to power through Trump's border wall.
"Every single dime the President requested to start building a wall on our southern border he's going to get," said House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif. "Most importantly, we're sending more to the VA to fix veterans' health care and reform outdated VA systems."
The House added Trump's wall funding by a 230-196 procedural vote that denied angry Democrats an up-or-down vote. The wall gets low marks in public opinion polls and is opposed by many of the GOP's more moderate lawmakers.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-gop-approves-1-6-billion-trump-s-wall-n787271
Stupid. His base is neocons and establishment Republicans? Not remotely. Skepticism of internationalism is part of what he campaigned on. It's why he said the shit he did about Bush. This DOES play to his base.
Defeating our trans-womyn-of-color-robot overlords will require finesse and guerrilla tactics, not pseudo-machine guns.
No, I got it off Breitbart, absolutely hilarious reading today.
Ann's going to be laughing her head off at Trump going golfing for the next 16 days while his Secret Service members and Border Patrol agents aren't getting their paychecks at Christmastime. That'll teach 'em!
Trump got his back up and decided not to sign the bill that the swamp thought they'd blackmail him with. I am quite pleased. Not because of the wall per se - which I think is an appropriate tool - but by Trump's willingness to give the flying fickle finger to those who thought they could manipulate him. My personal opinion is that the R's needed a good swift kick as they have fallen back into their old bad habits after the mid terms. All the "non-essentials ' should be put on permanent furlough since they will be by definition non-essential or, basically, unneeded.
There was another $1.5 Billion after that. That makes $3 Billion.
@ John Pickering I hate to disappoint you, but the check-writers will be "essential" personnel.
"he's flipping the usual strategy"
Or he could just be doing what he thinks will help Americans.
Anyway, few people in his "base" cared about Syria.
Does Trump even have a base in any traditional sense?
Most GOPers voted for him in the general the first time, for rather varied reasons, but it makes no sense to call the whole GOP a base. Build-the-wall nationalists are only a small minority, a baselet at best. In the battleground states, cross-over white working-class Dems helped to make the difference--Trump needs them but they are not a base.
Something like 95% of the government is funded. And you won't see the Fed Gov't stop delivering oxygen tanks and meals-on-wheel to Seniors. this time.
Too many on the right are ignoring how close the 2016 election was, and assuming that Trump is a shoo-in in 2020 as long as he does X, Y, and Z. That is a huge mistake - if the group of people who would potentially vote Republican is not expanded, probably significantly, from what it was in 2016, he will lose his re-election bid. And that means giving in to some degree.
Also, that Great Big Middle Class Tax Cut that Trump said he'd have ready in time for the 2018 election.
Of course, they missed that deadline, which might have been overly optimistic. i expect Trump will have the GBMCTC ready to go right around the time our Syria exit is complete, so that's yet another great accomplishment that should appeal to those few people who remain outside his much-talked-about political base...when they both finally happen.
Meanwhile, few will notice that Trump has backed off his commitment to back off his commitment to back off his commitment to back off his commitment on shutting down the government to force the GOP to come up with the funding for his border wall. So that won't matter at all.
Why don't we focus for a bit on what Trump is actually doing and not be so concerned to rush to 2020. That's the approach I think Trump is taking. He is going to get as much of his "agenda" done as he can in 4 years and if he gets another 4 all to the good. The winning of the Senate in the mid-terms was absolutely critical because the next two years are going to be about judicial nominations and treaties. The bulk of the important stuff is going to take place in the Senate. The House, as it so often is, will be a side show no matter how much noise Nancy makes. Does anyone think that the Democratic house is really going to be able to produce a budget and spending bills that have any hope of making it through the Senate, never mind through their own fractured caucus?
The bump stock thing is of very little consequence. The worst part, it turns an honest citizen that has a couple of pieces of piping and a spring, into a felon. And the Felons that have the same...yep, still felons. Banning bump stocks makes no one safer. Such is the loop we are stuck in. Politicians wasting time on meaningless stuff,and ignoring their responsibilities. Passing CR after CR
I was educated a while back on this CR thing. The Leadership, both Democrat and Republican, navigate their respective chambers to a draw on budgeting. Slamming up against the govt running out of budgeted $'s. Then what happens? A dozen or so leaders lock themselves into a room, and come out with a compromise. A compromise that leaves out 90% of our elected representatives, and places all the power into the hands of a few people. The very same people that navigated their respected chamber into the shutdown.
It comes down to the people in power, doing exactly what the want.
Ironically, this is what some Democrats thought was a good idea in 2016: Get the GOP to nominate Trump, and then he'll be easily defeated.
This. And I note that the Democrats had a similar strategy in California in 1966, because "no one" would vote for a has-been B-list actor like Ronald Reagan.
Another little news squib that has got to have Ann chuckling sagely in satisfaction with the performance of the wise and clever president:
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea said Thursday it will never unilaterally give up its nuclear weapons unless the United States first removes what Pyongyang called a nuclear threat. The surprisingly blunt statement jars with Seoul’s rosier presentation of the North Korean position and could rattle the fragile trilateral diplomacy to defuse a nuclear crisis that last year had many fearing war.
You mean, the Peace Prize is in jeopardy?
Black unemployment is at never before seen levels combined with nice wage gains in that category + criminal justice reform worked out with - among many others - Cory Booker. He's carving some AA vote out with his work there and with his stances on illegal immigration.
Syria makes a lot of people happy - we were never officially at war there yet here we are with 2,000+ troops in country. And let's not forget Obama's "red line" years back.
Gun control is a freebie. No serious contingent of people give AF. It's free softening for him. It's something he's offered for a long time as well.
You mean, the Peace Prize is in jeopardy?
Obama's and Arafat's are safe.
Off to see the new Mary Poppins. Now she is Satan's daughter and founder of the Great Britain Communist Party. It was bound to happen.
I was pleasantly surprised to see Trump come out today talking tough. And Chuck's faux laughing (he's pretty pissed at these new developments) also makes me happy. I was depressed yesterday with all the capitulation.
However, I'm cautious. I keep hearing border security. Not wall. Border security.
If they get 5 billion for border security that doesn't fund a wall, we are right back where we started
#1 Trending Go Fund Me Campaign - Help President Trump Fund the Wall! UPDATED
https://commoncts.blogspot.com/2018/12/1-trending-go-fund-me-campaign-help.html
John Pickering@2:46PM You think Trump is going to stiff border patrol? He's not Obama- it won't be veterans and deplorable who feel this shutdown, turkey. No Xmas for Planned Parenthood, sanctuary cities, and Democrat party members. Just like he cancelled your WHCA Xmas party. Suck it!
Emily blunt is not sunshine and lollipops, in other news james wolfe gets two month for helping miss Watkins with her (ahem) research, with the support of warner, burr and Feinstein, she received the leaks of the senate slimejob on American interrogators.
"Ironically, this is what some Democrats thought was a good idea in 2016: Get the GOP to nominate Trump, and then he'll be easily defeated."
The thing about 2016 was that Merkel had just allowed millions of migrants to flood into Europe, a policy that became more and more ludicrous after each terror attack or mass sexual harassment (remember Cologne on New Year's?). It completely realigned western politics writ large and actually made the previous center extreme. So what the Dems were actually doing was forcing the GOP into a winning hand played by the immigration restrictionist Trump while making themselves seem more ridiculous in supporting a clearly failing migration policy, and the humanitarian interventionist foreign policy that necessitated it.
It was likely the most hard-headed, moronic political miscalculation I will ever see. You might even call it bigoted, if you remember the original definition of that word.
Trump just tweeted that General Mattis is retiring in February. Hell's bells.
Isn't it well established that Trump stole the erection from Hillary? Trump's a well known thief, and pussy-grabber, so nothing new there.
I doubt it is strategy at all. Trump had always been fairly liberal on issues even when talking a big game.
Think what the left could have gotten if they worked with him.
Chuck@2:34PM "So they're halfway there," he said.
Sure, Chuck, a guy who has made over $20 million dollars a year for nearly 30 years thinks 5 million is half of a billion. One reason why you are so deservedly detested here is your willful stupidity.
Apparently Secretary Mattis doesn’t agree with Trump’s brilliant political moves. What took Mattis so long? Or was he fired by the tin pot dictator that sits in the White House.
Inga: Mad Dog quitting is what winning looks like
Mattis's letter to Trump here. Syria was the last straw.
The inmates are running the asylum. Mueller's coup can't happen soon enough.
Trumpit said...
Isn't it well established that Trump stole the erection from Hillary?
Unusual to see 'Hillary' and 'erection' in the same sentence.
Inga thinks US elections produce dictators.
Who is going to gallup back a bit in time to dredge up Ingas complaints about others not respecting our election results?
Once again, history began anew 15 minutes ago.
Just think, in one fell swoop Mattis will go from a fascist dictator supporting nazi to a Voice That Must Be Listened To!
Too funny.
“Inga thinks US elections produce dictators.”
No our elections don’t, unless they were maniplulated and interfered with. If not for our Constitution and the Rule of Law, Trump wouldn’t just be a wanna-be dictator. All you Trump Cultists need to wake the hell up.
Drago is too far gone, but there’s hope for many of you.
When Obama "shut down the government" he tried to make it publicly painful -- like by paying government workers to prevent public access to national monuments. Trump's idea seems to be to make the "shut-down" as imperceptible as possible. I never thought of Trump as a "conservative", but minimizing the federal government is what conservatives have been trying to do for decades.
I think Trump is right to use the phrase "border security". The "Wall" is a symbol of border security, but I think he's signalling that he's willing to discuss with the Democrats other means of advancing the goal of border security. What this may reveal is that the Democrats don't want ANY KIND of border security -- they want open borders for future Democrat voters. If the rest of America figures that out, Trump will have won. So I expect the MSM to obscure the issue as much as possible.
If this shut down doesn't involve closing public spaces normally open 24 7, we'll have made progress.
I have tremendous respect for Mattis, but if 14(?) years is enough for Afghanistan 12 is probably enough for Syria. Remember that many in the Pentagon disagreed with Bush on the "surge". He was right, they were wrong. At least Mattis has the courage and character to resign (rather than leak) over a policy he disagrees with.
Can't read 'could appeal to voters outside' and not be reminded of W and Medicare Part D. GOP got plenty of credit for that, right?
No our elections don’t, unless they were maniplulated and interfered with. If not for our Constitution and the Rule of Law, Trump wouldn’t just be a wanna-be dictator. All you Trump Cultists need to wake the hell up.
What rule of law? For what?
Inga: "No our elections don’t, unless they were maniplulated and interfered with. If not for our Constitution and the Rule of Law, Trump wouldn’t just be a wanna-be dictator. All you Trump Cultists need to wake the hell up."
LOL
Read that again, slowly.
Early Inga: Trump is a dictator.
Later Inga: Trump is only a wannabe dictator!
Early Inga: "No our elections don’t, unless they were maniplulated and interfered with."
"The public is understandably concerned about the integrity of next month's election.
But election officials and cyber experts say it's virtually impossible for Moscow or some other outside group to influence the election outcome."
https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/19/politics/election-day-russia-hacking-explained/index.html
Inga's talking points hardest hit.
We are still waiting for Inga to explain why it is Putin wants the US to give weapons to Poland and Ukraine.
I can understand her reluctance to do that.....
LOL
Next thing you know Inga will be accusing republicans of paying Putin's pals directly in cash for fake stories about a democrat nominee and then funneling those lies into the FBI to improperly spy on the democrat campaign!!
Even Inga couldn't bring herself to vote for Hillary (or so she says) so maybe she could lighten up on the rest of us.
Nobody in Trump's "Base" wants to be in Syria or cares about "Bump Stocks."
As for the Crime Bill - I have no idea why over 40 Republican Senators refused to vote against it.
But that seems to indicate, its not a very liberal position.
OTOH, caving on Border Security will cost Trump the election. The base cares deeply and no one else does.
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