It is outrageous what the Democrats are doing to our Country. Vote Republican now! https://t.co/0pWiwCHGbh pic.twitter.com/2crea9HF7G— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 31, 2018
WaPo identifies the man as Luis Bracamontes, who — after he'd been deported twice — killed 2 California law enforcement officers. In the video, Bracamontes laughs about the killings and says he wishes he'd killed more of those "motherfuckers."
One way to counter this intense presentation of the illegal immigration issue is say it's the "Willie Horton" approach, which good people are supposed to understand and know to be racist.
“This was a classic example of racial cuing,” Claire Jean Kim, a political science professor at the University of California at Irvine, said in a 2012 PBS special. “The insinuation is, if you elect Governor Dukakis as president we’re going to have black rapists running amok in the country. It’s playing to white fears about black crime.”...
[Trump's new] video was discussed at length by [CNN's Chris] Cuomo and Don Lemon on Wednesday. After pointing out that “much of the footage” in the ad “comes from Fox,” a network often praised by Trump and once helmed by [Roger] Ailes, the “Willie Horton” ad creator, Cuomo called both ads “grossly distorted, bigoted, but also effective.”...The argument is that people are too afraid of crime, and we need to calm down and discount our primal reaction because to be virtuous we ought to discount our fear because we understand that some portion of it comes from inappropriate racial sensations. Nudged to restructure your feelings, watch Luis Bracamontes again and tell me whether you felt more calmly rational about the problem of crime in America.
ADDED: I see I used the word "discount" twice in the penultimate sentence. Too late to spruce that up. So let me say why that word was so important to me. It seems to me that the criticism based on the old Willie Horton ad is intellectually interesting, but not practical in use. Let's say Trump's ad activates something in the evolved human nervous system that we call racism or tribalism or xenophobia when we're conscious of it, but we're also properly afraid of crime, and there is something real about drug cartels and gangs that has something to do with poor control of our border. What am I supposed to do with that — downgrade my fear, take 10% off, 20% off, whatever part I estimate is the instinctive racism that a moral person would want to take out of the decisionmaking process?
I suspect that those making the argument that Trump's ad is a "Willie Horton" move don't mean for us to make a precise adjustment and consider the issue of border control after discounting the part of our thinking attributable to racism. I think they too are attempting to produce an excessive and emotional reaction. They would like us to think Trump is deliberately stimulating racist impulses in the deep reaches of the human psyche, and that makes him so despicable that he must be completely opposed. But that offers nothing to those of us who have — after discounting for racism — a genuine, justified fear of crime.
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253 comments:
1 – 200 of 253 Newer› Newest»Not too afraid of crime, but why import more? The Left is anti-American.
Luis Bracamontes is Spanish for Luca Brasi.
“We have to stop demonizing people and realize the biggest terror threat in this country is white men, most of them radicalized to the right, and we have to start doing something about them....” -Don Lemon
Cuomo called both ads “grossly distorted, bigoted, but also effective.”...
Because they were both true and the Democrats have no answer for them so they have to fall back on the tried and trusted canard that Republicans are racist. The Democrats are soft and crime and criminals, which is ironic because their base is the most afflicted by crime.
White Hispanic is racist?
“We have to stop demonizing people and realize the biggest terror threat in this country is white men, most of them radicalized to the right, and we have to start doing something about them....” -Don Lemon
Somebody needs to ask Don if he knows that the vast majority of violent crime in this country is committed by less than 5% of the population, and that 5% isn't White men.
The argument is that people are too afraid of crime, and we need to calm down and discount our primal reaction because to be virtuous we ought to discount our fear because we understand that some portion of it comes from inappropriate racial sensations.
That is a specious argument.
We are afraid of crime because we see it happening all around us. We know who is causing it. We don't want to be victims, no matter who or what race is causing it.
Since we, as individuals, don't have very many (legal) remedies to stop or minimize crime as a general societal problem, we leave that to the elected government. A government which has failed us and then turns around a blames US the victims when we complain about being subjected to criminal elements. WE are racists because we don't want to be victimized.
If the government leaves a vacuum.....others WILL step up to find the remedy.....sayeth Cassandra.
Nudged to restructure your feelings
Nudged. There's your most influential book of the last 20 years. Somebody punch Cass Sunstein in the face.
The family of Kate Steinle, and countless others, were unavailable for comment....
The argument is that people are too afraid of crime, and we need to calm down and discount our primal reaction because to be virtuous we ought to discount our fear because we understand that some portion of it comes from inappropriate racial sensations.
On the one hand, it's obvious why people in government would really, really like the population to just shut up and take it on crime. After all, controlling crime is kind of one of their core functions, and it's hard to do, and messy, and it distracts them from the kinds of things they'd prefer to be doing.
But I'm fed up with these excuses. People wouldn't be so concerned about crime if our murder rate weren't 10 times as high as the rate in civilised countries (5.35/100K in the US, vs. 0.28 for Japan, 0.70 for Korea, and 0.54 for gun-ridden Switzerland). Just do your jobs!
George Soros has been clear and open that the open border policy he advocates is designed to cause catastrophic disruption in the US and open the door for a complete takeover by the Left. The Democrats endorse his policy wholeheartedly.
The Dems don't remember who Willie Horton was. They don't know who Michael Dukakis was. They certainly don't know who Dan Quayle was or Bernard Shaw from CNN, who knocked Dukakis outta the race with his death penalty question at the debate.
That was 30 years ago, Man! They barely understand how to fill out a ballot, unless someone guides them.
There really was a black crime wave in the late 60s and 70s and black men raping white women was epidemic.
Simplest response: "Illegal immigrant" isn't a race. Those who want to conflate "illegal" with "Hispanic" are offensive racists.
Didn’t Al Gore or some other Dem run them first?
The name of that black crime wave was the "crack epidemic."
I'm tired of listening to liberals tell me this didn't happen. I lived through it in SF and NYC.
The guy is clearly a badass. Needs to be in jail. I think I'd be happier with him in jail, than being deported where he might return illegally to the U.S. Unless we could "deport" him to, say, Jupiter.
But is he reasonably representative of immigrants, legal or illegal? Probably not. Another way of thinking about it is that he is not more representative of illegal aliens, than Paul Manafort and Michael Cohen are representative of Republicans.
Was Willie Horton an illegal immigrant? That's news to me.
Isn't Trump's tweet factually true? A guy who was deported returned to CA and he killed. But for CA's sanctuary laws and the open border, the victims would be alive today. The race of the murderer is irrelevant.
Translation - Trump does not play well with others!
Democracy Dies in Darkness!
Man! They [Dems] barely understand how to fill out a ballot, unless someone guides them.
They also can't figure out how to get postage stamps to mail in their ballots....and probably anything else that requires "mailing".
Young Doctors and Surgeons don't know how to sew and have poor hand motor skills. Ask for an elderly Doctor or your Grandma who knows how to sew a seam if you need to, I suppose.
The argument is that people are too afraid of crime, and we need to calm down and discount our primal reaction because to be virtuous we ought to discount our fear because we understand that some portion of it comes from inappropriate racial sensations.
That's right citizen...
Don't pay attention to what you see with your own eyes.
Don't trust your instincts which are going off like an alarm bell.
Don't act on common sense.
Don't believe those other media outlets, believe us.
Don't listen to the words coming out of his mouth, let us interpret.
Don't judge people by what they do or what they say, judge them in context.
Don't think about things too deeply, that's what we're here for.
Look. See that squirrel?
@Chuck, you out of touch cuck - “badass” is a term of respect, even if grudging.
Bracamontes is an inhuman shitstain who deserves 2 in the chest and 1 in the head.
Cue breathless virtue signaling by irrational liberals, progressives, enlightened so-called elites etc... who think they have the moral high ground.
I'm glad that Balfegor brought up the murder rate rather than individual crimes.
But even the murder rate doesn't explain why hard-on-crime politics works. In many communities, many counties, some entire states, the murder rate is very low. Violent crime rates in great swaths of the country are quite low.
Trump's biggest ally in his hard-on-crime politics is the media -- both mainstream and partisan. The media takes as its basic principle that news anywhere is news everywhere. And few things are as dramatic as violent crime.
Where violent crime is incredibly minimal, the fear of crime should be discounted -- not out of virtue, but out of logic.
Trump was elected because he will point out when the emperor had no clothes in.
He shatters Overton windows left and right.
Trump continues to control the media cycle!
He’s inside the msm/Dems OODA Loop.
BAG makes a solid point. Donk talking points seem aimed at, and written by, middle-aged white liberals. The emoting core. Ideological, as opposed to Free Stuff, Hillary voters. CNN believers. Dudes that still Have Traveling Wilbury’s CDs in their Prius.
People under stress often nestle themselves in a comfortable past, a personal Golden Age. For Boomer Democrats that would be right about 1992.
Dudes that still Have Traveling Wilbury’s CDs in their Prius
Heh.
One way to counter this intense presentation of the illegal immigration issue is say it's the "Willie Horton" approach, which good people are supposed to understand and know to be racist.
And the next thing they have to do is to explain the dog whistle to everyone in the kennel, or they wouldn't know what to do when it was sounded.
Here's a clue: when you have to explain to someone why something is racist, it's not "a classic example of racial" anything.
What racial issue? When I scrolled to this post, I saw white man. Darrell at 8:22 is right.
More generally, the dem ads around here have been using individual people and their medical cases to stir up a general fear of losing pre-existing condition coverage. How is using an individual criminal to stir up fear of crime different? Like it or not, this type of appeal is par for the course.
I'm voting for Willie Bulger!
Top o' the Pops for Murder!
El Salvador 82.84
Honduras 56.52
The funny thing is WTF are those white po-leece mens doing down there? Besides killing people, that is.
The only people who objected to the 100% accurate Willie Horton ads were butt-hurt Democrats. Who the fuck thinks it was really a good idea to let Willie Horton out of jail for a weekend pass? Same with illegal immigration. If you can't beat them on substance, attack them on style.
The people that see racism in everything are the actual, you know, racists.
And right on tim, you beat me to it.
And which party is more than willing to let others suffer, think Kate Steinle (killed in SF by an illegal) and the numbers of Americans killed by illegal drivers, so long as government increases in size and more are dependent on government resulting in increased voters for that party?
Which party is that?
Maybe Chuck's right that rapist/murderers do not represent all illegal immigrants. In fact, I'm sure of it.
But rapists and murderers and ISIS members and violent gang members are pouring across our borders, Chuck, and you and the left want nothing at all done about it. You "elite" GOPe types do not care one whit how many "Deplorables" die, or are raped, etc as long as you and yours get an illegal gardener you can pay under the table. 10,000 deplorables, rural people, inner city people, died so you can have your crocuses all nice without having to lift your finger. And that's what you and your fellow allies on the left want more of. The leftists all want them to vote Democrat early and often as well. And again, that's not something you have a problem with.
Are many, even most, illegal immigrants good people? Probably. But many, far too many, are not--and you and your want to do zero, nada, nilch--to stop them and protect America.
We aren't stupid. In my state, I listen to the nightly news. Every night, another crime story or assault. More often than not; heck 75% of the time, the names involved are hispanic. They aren't legal citizens, either. 20 years ago, it wasn't this way. I'm sure I'm not the only one who has noticed a huge increase of Hispanic, violent people running around.
What are you and the Oh so much holier than thou, so much better than Trump and his evil deplorables, so wise and righteous--what are you going to do about it? Trump wants to get rid of them. You scream we can't and how racist to even think of such a thing. So what's your solution--tell everyone to bend over and just be raped, robbed, and murdered? So you can keep your crocuses happy?
Part of the pure genius of Trump is that when he publishes a tweet like this, the MSM goes crazy. That attracts more attention to the tweet. More regular people see the tweet and think, "Trump is absolutely right. And this has NOTHING to do with race."
Genius. Trump plays the media like a fiddle.
Why not talk about improving our system of LEGAL immigration. We certainly need immigrants with the economy hitting on all cylinders, but do we need to let anybody who wants to break the law in?
I have contact with the 1%. Let me tell you who uses these Mexicans and other Latin Americans who come here and work without labor protections, and since their employers don't pay for their insurance, they must flood our emergency rooms:
Race horse owners. Do you know the kinds of hours people put in in race track stables? Can you imagine if somehow you had to pay them a decent wage, benefits, and time and a half for overtime? It's unthinkable!
Do you own a string of polo ponies? Same thing, not only do you need all of the services most cheaply provided by illegals, (Got a beef? I can just call El Emigre!" but you need players to fill out your team.
Do you live in a gated community, maybe a golf community, or a tennis community that is hundreds if not thousands of acres of corner to corner manicured landscaping, golf courses etc. Do you deplorables have any idea what it would cost to pay citizens with proper labor protections who didn't have to look over their shoulders at millions of illegal scabs happy to live ten to a house and work for less?
Politico said that the Democratic Party has become "Hourglass shaped" buwaya more correctly calls it a top and bottom against the middle coalition. The top pays off the bottom by taking it out of the hide of the middle. That's why they hate Trump. Everybody always hates the middle and their bourgeois values, but guess what? If you wren't born rich and you don't want to be poor, you damn well better have bourgeois values!
The unnecessary murder of a recent college graduate in Omaha by an illegal alien surely got Trump thousands of votes in Nebraska and Iowa. And now he is doing something about stopping future murders. The woman was killed about three miles from where I sit right now.
Maybe Chuck's right that rapist/murderers do not represent all illegal immigrants. In fact, I'm sure of it.
We have to let the caravan pass so you can find out what's in it.
Trump has the magical ability to make Democrats defend the indefensible. Over and over. Some day they will realize they have turned into his dancing monkeys. Their own favorite clown nose comic newsperson Jon Stewart tried to warn them the other day that Trump was so easily provoking them into acting stupid, but they wouldn't listen.
Ha - you can always tell when a conservative political ad strikes a nerve.
Maybe Chuck's right that rapist/murderers do not represent all illegal immigrants. In fact, I'm sure of it.
Since SOME, MANY, or even MOST of them are had working law abiding people, that means that it's a wast of time to screen them! Because fewer than a million or them (how many fewer we can't know since this is all guess work because it would be racist to check) are rapists, murderers, members of murderous gangs, or drug cartel soldiers, it's pointless to check!
That's sarcasm Chuck, I know you have a problem with it.
One morning in January, five men from Nepal showed up at the Casa del Migrante in Tijuana, looking for a bed for the night. That’s odd, the shelter’s director, Father Patrick Murphy, remembers thinking. This border city has been a gateway to generations of migrants fleeing poverty and violence in Mexico and Central America, people dreaming of a better life in the United States.
But Nepal was 8,000 miles away. What were they doing here?
Within months, Tijuana would be teeming with migrants from across the globe — from Haiti, India, Bangladesh and various parts of Africa — all hoping to reach the U.S. In a surge Mexican officials are calling unprecedented, some 15,000 migrants from outside Latin America passed through Baja California this year — nearly five times the number seen in 2015.
http://www.latimes.com/projects/la-fg-immigration-trek-america-tijuana/
Look what huge waves of immigrants from the Middle East and the Maghreb have done to carve up and weaken Europe. Angela Merkel, a daughter of a Lutheran pastor from the GDR, thought she was riding the moral arc of history--and she is, right into political oblivion.
You would think that people here would accept the idea that we need to control our borders regardless of the next act of the immigration drama...but the Democrats don't. I ask my Dem friends what they think our immigration policy should be, and they say something like Canada or Australia. Have they seen the diversions from Australia to East Timor? Do they know that Canada has tent cities for people crossing in from the US seeking asylum without authorization? Do they know about the financial tests and limited family chain immigration in Canada?
It seems to me that no one in either party really wants to get serious about immigration policy, so it will continue to fester.
We aren't stupid. In my state, I listen to the nightly news. Every night, another crime story or assault. More often than not; heck 75% of the time, the names involved are hispanic. They aren't legal citizens, either. 20 years ago, it wasn't this way.
That is true. 20 years ago it wasn't this way. 20 years ago the violent crime rate was much higher.
Here is an IQ test question for you all:
Picket line is to scab as border is to
A: Illegal Alien
B: Person willing to cross and work for the wages on offer
C: Person willing to work without the labor protections demanded by the people inside the border
D: All of the above
So how many people — besidesme — have actually gotten on YouTube and looked at the Willie Horton ad. It is treated as an article of faith by the Dumbocrats that the ad was racist, but if you actually go and look, as opposed to foolishly believing everything you are told to believe, you see that there are at least as many white men as black going through the turnstile.
For the benefit of those not paying attention to presidential politics in 1988, the Democrat nominee for the presidency was Michael Dukakis, then the Governor of Massachusetts. In what passes for wisdom among hard core Democrats at the time, they had instituted a weekend furlough program for convicted felons, including people like Willie Horton, who had been sentenced to life without the possibility of parole. The inevitable happened and Willie didn’t come back from his furlough. He turned up in Maryland, where he stabbed a man, leaving him for dead (the man survived) then beat, pistol-whipped, and repeatedly raped the man’s fiancé.
When Horton was caught the Commonwealth of Massachusetts asked for him to be returned. The judge laughed in their face. "I'm not prepared to take the chance that Mr. Horton might again be furloughed or otherwise released. This man should never draw a breath of free air again." Nor will he. He is in the Maryland maximum security prison in Jessup, MD.
I then lived about fifteen miles from where the crime occurred. Those of us living in Maryland back then thought it was unbelievable that Masdachusetts would export its worst criminal to the rest of the country.
Lowlifes use motherfucker too often. It makes it ineffective and they just look stupid.
Some facts:
* There has been an increase in violent crime 2014, but even so, violent crime rates are still very near 40-year lows.
* The number of illegal immigrants in the united states has been mostly static since 2007
* Most illegal immigrants are long-term residents
The reason that the wealthy went so heavily for Hillary is that they are protected geographically from crime and need not worry about job competition from low skill or no skill illegals, therefor they can say things like :"20 years ago the violent crime rate was much higher."
Suck it up deplorables!
Of course that bondage fantasy thing among Democrats also explains why people could support Hillary. She is like the prototypical dominatrix. Sorry, but most of the country doesn't share your sick fantasies! We have sick fantasies of our own!
One way to counter this intense presentation of the illegal immigration issue is say it's the "Willie Horton" approach, which good people are supposed to understand and know to be racist.
There’s at least 1 generation who doesn’t know who Willie Horton is.
Dems want us as prey. We aren’t allowed to defend ourselves. They want us to live in fear. No protection which includes killing grandma by sending her in her wheelchair over the cliff by making SS and Medicare solvent.
"George Soros has been clear and open that the open border policy he advocates is designed to cause catastrophic disruption in the US and open the door for a complete takeover by the Left. The Democrats endorse his policy wholeheartedly."
Can you provide a link to where Soros explains this policy that he advocates and its intent? I'm curious to know more.
Henry falsely claims that there are actual hard numbers. Once again, because he personally has little to fear from wage competition or neighborhood deterioration. He could simply move! Suck it up deplorables! We need the cheap labor to keep my gated community looking spic and span! Get it? spic and span! That's a joke because that's how we keep our gated communities so nice looking! You deplorables don't even get to see past the gates! But you can bet that inside here, we drive our BMWs, Lexi, Mercedes, Porches, etc, very few of us drive cars built by deplorables! you can bet that we almost unanimously pull the lever straight Democrat!
You're welcome!, deplorables!
This is very simple. We don't want bad people entering our country. Bad people do bad things.
We have control of what people enter our country by legal means. We can screen out violent felons for example.
We have no control of what people enter our country by illegal means.
Therefore we have every right to stop illegal entry.
This is not racist.
All of which raises two awkward questions:
How much crime should we be expected to tolerate from those who enter the country illegally?
How does the crime rate compare between those who enter the country illegally and those who enter legally?
While the plural of "anecdote" is not "data", there seem to be a lot of stories of serious crime committed by people who have entered the United States illegally.
Dems are hoping to rule over the ruins, but the white left will be kicked to the curb soon enough when it becomes the system utterly determined by racial spoils that they envision.
Can you provide a link to where Soros explains this policy
Go to your NYC CPUSA headquarters--they'll fill you in. You know where it is.
Seeing Red says,
"Dems want us as prey. We aren’t allowed to defend ourselves. They want us to live in fear."
Henry, a little earlier:
"Some facts:
"* There has been an increase in violent crime 2014, but even so, violent crime rates are still very near 40-year lows.
"* The number of illegal immigrants in the united states has been mostly static since 2007
"* Most illegal immigrants are long-term residents"
Those who want us to live in fear are the "law-and-order" politicians who play on and ramp up fear of crime among the citizenry, in order solely to win votes. I'm sure there are some Dem politicians who use this tactic, but it has been a bread-and-butter campaign issue for the Republican party for decades. If the Repubs would actually admit to how much crime has dropped in the past two decades would have little else to run on.
"Go to your NYC CPUSA headquarters--they'll fill you in. You know where it is."
As I thought, it's shit you made up.
We have control of what people enter our country by legal means. We can screen out violent felons for example.
We have no control of what people enter our country by illegal means.
Stone cold white nationalism right there! And white supremacism too. Your social credit score is now negative! Don't try to get a well paying job at Google!
There has been an increase in violent crime 2014, but even so, violent crime rates are still very near 40-year lows.
It's still much higher than other First World nations.
The number of illegal immigrants in the united states has been mostly static since 2007
How do you know? What is the number? How can the number be static when hundreds of thousands more come every year?
Most illegal immigrants are long-term residents
What's your point?
The Willie Horton ad wasn't racist in the first place. It was a legitimate criticism of Dukakis' policy as governor.
So the notion that this ad is racist just like the Willie Horton ad is bullshit constructed on bullshit.
The simple fact is, this POS should not have been in the country, and lax enforcement of immigration law allowed him to be. If that's a tradeoff that you are willing to make for a higher principle, then own it. Tell us the sob stories. Just don't act like anyone who disagrees with the need for open borders HATES IMMIGRANTS.
Somebody needs to ask Don if he knows that the vast majority of violent crime in this country is committed by less than 5% of the population, and that 5% isn't White men.
But that 5% isn't immigrants, either. So why are you bringing it up in this thread?
The name of the man Willie Horton murdered was Joseph Fournier. Horton stabbed him several times and left him to die in a trash can.
Dukakis gave him a weekend furlough.
I don't know the name of the woman Horton raped when he was let out. Maybe she could post her testimony on #MeToo, and see if any Democrat gives a damn.
Well *some* people must be not "subject to the jurisdiction" or the clause wouldn't be there. - Mickey Kaus
If conservatives did logic the way liberal justices do, with a majority this would be a slam dunk! I am sure a "wise white man" could see that the citizenship by birth wasn't intended to apply to people who flout the laws of the United States!
The above is sarcasm, BTW, my words anyway. It's sarcasm, irony, reductio ad absurdum even. We conservatives don't buy into the "wise {your identity group goes here}" jurisprudence. White nationalism is a collectivist ideology, which is why it looms so large in the minds of the left.
"Trump revives 'Willie Horton' tactic with ad linking illegal immigrant killer to Democrats."
I love The Sweet!
Try tellin' everybody but, oh no
Little Willy, Willy won't...[bump][bump][bump] ...go home
Little Willy
North side, east side
Little Willy, Willy wears the crown, he's the king around town
Dancing, glancing
Willy drives them silly with his star shoe shimmy shuffle down
Way past one, and feeling alright
'Cause with little Willy round they can last all night
Hey down, stay down, stay down down
'Cause little Willy, Willy won't go home
But you can't push Willy 'round
Willy won't go, try tellin' everybody but, oh no
Little Willy, Willy won't go home
Up town, down town
Little Willy, Willy drives them wild with his run-around style
Inside, outside
Willy sends them silly with his star-shine shimmy shuffle smile
Mama done chase Willy down through the hall
But laugh, Willy laugh, he don't care at all
Hey down, stay down, stay down, down
'Cause little Willy, Willy won't go home
But you can't push Willy 'round
Willy won't go, try tellin' everybody but, oh no
Little Willy, Willy won't go home
From the Halloween thread last night:
Blogger anti-de Sitter space said...
"Although most don't know that by the time we moved, I always had a pistol in my pocket."
How many people did you pull the gun on to save yourself, your family, geezers in the hood or anyone?
I have plenty of very armed friends when I'm in my non-urban places. They talk of the joy of shooting the AR-15. They never go anywhere w/o arms.
Anywho, all I think is 'tiny dick' and 'insecure' and 'weak'.
But then today we hear:.
The argument is that people are too afraid of crime, and we need to calm down and discount our primal reaction because to be virtuous we ought to discount our fear because we understand that some portion of it comes from inappropriate racial sensations.
Cracking down on crime is apparently racist, even though we repeatedly see that not cracking down on crime means more crime and, more worrisome, more violence (the Ferguson Effect). And, yes, the media makes us even more aware of the crime around us. Here, two blocks from PHX, we see the choppers with their spotlights at night, 4 or 5 squad cars parked around cars on the street, with their lights on, and then hear about it on the news the next day. A month ago, the main street two blocks from here was shut down during morning rush hour. The cops doing traffic control wouldn’t tell us what was going on, just that there had been some deaths the night before (turned out a drunk driver had slammed into cars parked at the light). Cop cars parked outside Walmart a couple blocks from here are not uncommon. And, if you really want to start worrying about crime, the daily crime report for the city we are in is online, as are the crime statistics, neighborhood by neighborhood.
The Hispanics I live among are almost all of Mexican descent, which means that we have a lot of extended families around here. And that means probably comparable crime statistics to their non-Hispanic neighbors. But the Caravan is primarily coming from Central America, where we are primarily talking military aged males. The age and sex of most violent gang members. It is Darwinian stupid to not take that into account, in our reaction to the Caravan. The gangs we see from there are extremely violent. Some of the most violent gangs we have in this country, a bunch more young men from that region are in route to this country, and we are supposed to welcome them here with open arms, because anything else would be racist.
If we aren't going to be using the "wise white man" rule, we can use the "common sense wins!" rule that is a penumbra "Love wins!"
"'Most illegal immigrants are long-term residents'
"What's your point?"
His point, which is correct, is that the number of illegal immigrants crossing our borders has has dropped in the past decade.
One number that isnt being reported, much, is the recent increase in illegal entries, since they collapsed in early 2017. I understand that border crossing has picked up greatly from late 2017 to today, probably due to increased demand for labor.
This is an interesting case of a fact that is inconvenient to both sides.
The Willie Horton ad was wildly successful; I remember reading wiki or some other discussion of it. The Rs were running different test ads in the south I think among independent/non-committed voters. The WH ad was astoundingly effective. I think ad was definitely racist; they changed the hues to make WH look much darker than he is in the original photo.
The sad thing about the WH ad is that since governors have been very reluctant to grant clemency/pardons. Big problem in Arizona. I think Jan Brewer turned down a number of pardon/clemency recommendations. Of the 13 pardons she granted I think 12 were granted on her very last day in public office.
Genius. Trump plays the media like a fiddle.
He did it again just the other day. When he announced the executive order on birthright citizenship, he said that no other country in the world allows it. He knows that’s not correct, but he also knows that it’s only a handful of Third World shitholes, plus Canada. The media went a-ha! Gotcha! And publicized his comment widely, along with the paltry list of anchor baby countries. People who had never before given any thought to the subject looked at the list, and said, “Where is France? Where is England? Where are all the socialist democracies of Scandinavia? I suspect that public opinion on the topic was shifted by five or 10 points overnight. The man is a genius.
Big Mike,
You left out some stuff.
The first Willie Horton ad was done in the Primary by Democrat Al Gore. Yes, that Al Gore.
In the Gore ad, they show a picture of Wille Horton.
In the general election Bush made a different Willie Horton ad. His had several actors in prison uniforms some with one racial characteristic, some with others, walking through a turnstyle with a voice over talking about how Dukakis is weak on crime.
The sad thing about the WH ad is that since governors have been very reluctant to grant clemency/pardons.
Sorry about the fact that you live in a democracy! And WH wasn't granted "clemency" he was furloughed to come back to prison on the honor system, Don't mix up the facts to suit some hobby horse of yours.
Illegal immigration probably (the statistics are not exactly reliable) dropped from 2007/8 to 2011 or so, but has steadily increased since, till it had a strong decline in early 2017 presumably out of fear of Trump. It has rebounded strongly since then.
The Dems want us all to be like a cult of snake handlers admitting murderers and rapists while ending ICE just to show our faith in the Dem's global god.
Dukakis was a political loser on the national stage who lost for real political reasons. I don’t see Althouse’s point at all.
Virgil Hill,
I am asking you to prove me wrong. Please tell me how the Willie Horton ad put out by the GOP in the 1988 election was racist.
Thank you,
my name goes here
If the Repubs would actually admit to how much crime has dropped in the past two decades would have little else to run on.
Not so. They could run on more Libertarian issues, like reducing regulations and the size of government, or on stronger defenses, etc.. They already do run on most of these issues, but without the law and order stuff they would have to pay more attention to them. And more voters would notice when they fail to keep campaign promises, like repealing Obamacare.
I don't understand why Republicans aren't campaigning harder on the strong economy. That would win votes without turning off suburban white women who vote against negative campaigners.
some portion of it comes from inappropriate racial sensations.
The left used a completely different line of attack when the immigration issue was "Polish plumbers" in Europe, but you can bet that they are completely sincere. You see, because we are all nativist swine, inappropriate xenophobia means that we have to let any and all non whites in by legal or illegal means. Only White Europeans are to be subjected to our laws because to expect non whites to be law abiding is racist!
"Imagine there's no countries...."
It's the pop version of The Internationale.
Is somebody right now working on a compilation of all of the times -- hundreds now -- wherein Trump has talked about "law and order," "ending crime," "stopping crime," "crime" this and "crime" that... So that if and when the Department of Justice's Special Counsel or the New York Attorney General's office comes up with reports that make it clear that Donald Trump is guilty of financial, banking, tax or election law crimes (like Michael Cohen), they can spend several nights on cable television talking about Trump's hypocrisy on "crime"? Complete with about five minutes of Trump clips on his fighting "crime"?
A Democrat calls the GOP racist. Must be a day that ends in "Y".
Leftwing hearts bleed for killers who crossed into our nation illegally.
Did that guy manage to vote D? Then he's a hero in the eyes of the left.
Illegal immigration probably (the statistics are not exactly reliable) dropped from 2007/8 to 2011 or so, but has steadily increased since, till it had a strong decline in early 2017 presumably out of fear of Trump. It has rebounded strongly since then.
Yes it dropped during the Great Recession when Obama kept his foot on the neck of the economy, but has risen sharply since the economy has recovered.
Tim in Vermont said ...? What I wrote is accurate, not a hobby horse. I'm not a bleeding heart and actually like this ad. But through prosecutorial misconduct, false allegations, prison snitch deals we do have innocent people who get railroaded, and others given ridiculous sentences for minor crimes. Through Innocence Project and other efforts, these cases often make their way to parole boards which then make recommendations to the governor, for example that prisoner x is most likely innocent and should be pardoned. Do you really think WH ad and its impact had zero effect on willingness of governors to grant pardons?
Jeff said...
If the Repubs would actually admit to how much crime has dropped in the past two decades would have little else to run on.
Not so. They could run on more Libertarian issues, like reducing regulations and the size of government, or on stronger defenses, etc.. They already do run on most of these issues, but without the law and order stuff they would have to pay more attention to them. And more voters would notice when they fail to keep campaign promises, like repealing Obamacare.
I don't understand why Republicans aren't campaigning harder on the strong economy. That would win votes without turning off suburban white women who vote against negative campaigners.
Right; I bolded your last paragraph for emphasis. Of course, Presidents -- all of them -- get way too much blame for bad economies and way too much credit for good economies. But while Barack Obama is out on the 2018 campaign trail talking about the economy (and how it swung into strong positives as he was completing his second term), Trump is talking about immigration.
"comes from FOX"
They sure do resent that there is now media out there willing to report on the stories they are trying to bury.
If the Repubs would actually admit to how much crime has dropped in the past two decades would have little else to run on.
We'll do that when you admit that the US, even under Republican administrations, including Trump's has led the world in CO2 emission reduction, largely due to fracking.
Never gonna happen. For you guys, any emissions are too much, and for us, we don't need the added crime which hits the people not at the top of the economic ladder, you know, the Hillary enclaves like Cambridge, Mass or Shelburne, VT or name any toney neighborhood in your state (the best place to find "I'm with her!" bumper stickers.
Suck it up deplorables!
Actually he's done both chuck, one can walk and chew gum, so the fraudulent dossier behind the fisa warrant we can't see to prosecute cases that are rarely investigated.
If Nelson loses in Florida, it will be because he runs these relentlessly negative ads against Scott, then cuts to his frozen rictus, grinning like he just found out they left the cemetery gate unlocked and he put on over on them by breaking out.
I think ad was definitely racist; they changed the hues to make WH look much darker than he is in the original photo.
Virgil,
You are conflating the Al Gore ad with the George Bush ad.
Chuck at 9:46 AM
if and when the Department of Justice's Special Counsel or the New York Attorney General's office comes up with reports that make it clear that Donald Trump is guilty of financial, banking, tax or election law crimes
Don't forget about Trump's colluding with Putin to steal the 2016 presidential election.
Putin spent tens of thousands of dollars on Facebook ads.
My name goes here asked how WH ad was racist.... First, I don't think this ad is racist (who knows what the term "racist" even means any more; for me it involves pandering to racist stereotypes, I guess). I think the ad we're discussing is powerful. But read the history of the WH ad; they deliberately darkened his image because they thought it enhanced the menace. To me, that crosses over the line. Had they left the hues and only used historical photos instead of reenactment, I would have been fine with the WH ad. I think the idea of giving WH a furlough was progressive insanity at its worst and that the people who made the decision to furlough him bear responsibility for the people he almost immediately attacked.
Trump is talking about immigration.
That's because Trump has already gone a long way toward fixing the economy but immigration has yet to be addressed.
"For the benefit of those not paying attention to presidential politics in 1988, the Democrat nominee for the presidency was Michael Dukakis, then the Governor of Massachusetts. In what passes for wisdom among hard core Democrats at the time, they had instituted a weekend furlough program for convicted felons, including people like Willie Horton, who had been sentenced to life without the possibility of parole. The inevitable happened and Willie didn’t come back from his furlough. He turned up in Maryland, where he stabbed a man, leaving him for dead (the man survived) then beat, pistol-whipped, and repeatedly raped the man’s fiancé."
Thank you Big Mike for beating me to it. I'll bet that of the millions of people who could tell you that Willie Horton was code for "black people are scary" could not tell you what the Dukakis policy was that allowed this to happen (and for the record, Horton was in for murder). The fact that anyone could have thought this policy was an okay idea, even for a minute, even while drunk or distracted or having a really bad migraine, is difficult to fathom; the fact that he would go on to receive his party's nomination for president is unreal.
But the narrative is what the narrative is.
They're just doing the killings that Americans won't do.
His point, which is correct, is that the number of illegal immigrants crossing our borders has has dropped in the past decade.
How do you know? Now if you tell me the number of illegal immigrants stopped by the border patrol or deported by the government declined during the Obama years, I can believe that. But how can you measure the number who came here successfully?
And by the way, I'm not sure the WaPo is doing itself (or its party) any favors by putting Willie Horton's name into a headline. It's like handing someone a tree trunk and asking them to beat you with it.
Hillary supporters are the worst kind of hypocrite.
Living in Iowa I don't have to watch the national ads. All an Iowan has to do is look at the morning paper and look at the police blotter, watch to local news. listen to the radio on your morning and evening commute.
Lots of Hispanic sir names there. Big enclaves of Hispanics, AND other immigrants, AND illegal aliens at the hog slaughter plants. The egg processors, Iowa is the nations leader in egg production (very labor intensive), the turkey slaughter plants. All we have to do is have the news on as background noise, and the steady stream of Hispanic sir names embed in our sub conscious. So state your opinion about crime at a low ebb, but the lefty in the news are powerless to avoid naming names.
Well, at least the press is unbiased. Isn't it?
CNN doesn't think you should even say "illegal immigrant: "Why 'illegal immigrant' is a slur" - CNN
NBC just knows the ad is "racially divisive": "Trump, in racially divisive ad, blames Democrats for undocumented immigrant ..." -- NBC news
And Psychology Today knows why you might want fewer illegal immigrants: it's because there's something psychologically wrong with you! "Who Does Not Like Illegal Immigrants? And Why?" -- Psychology Today
So, this ad makes its point more emotionally than rationally. But, it does at least raise the question of whether the risks of illegal immigration are worth any benefits it may bring and, if illegal immigration is not worth its cost to the host country (and this is one such cost) then why should/would we permit it?
The point really has never been whether it benefits immigrants (it surely benefits many) but remains whether it benefits the host country and, if so, whether those benefits are worth the cost.
If it takes a less-than-rational, highly emotional punch-in-the-gut ad to refocus this debate, then so be it.
But that 5% isn't immigrants, either. So why are you bringing it up in this thread?
Excuse me...I thought the thread was about racism and crime.
Confession - I cannot find support for what I sure I had read years ago about the Horton mugshot being darkened to enhance the effect. So I could be wrong! They did change the name from William to Willie - I believe that crossed the line.
Here's data on border apprehensions, a proxy of crossings
Southwest Border Migration FY2014 - FY2018
There two outliers in the chart and 2018 isn't one of them.
Estimated population of illegal immigrants in the U.S. (first chart) and share of illegal immigrants who are long term residents (fifth chart)
Gahrie asked: How can the number be static when hundreds of thousands more come every year?
Because hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants leave the U.S. each year
* * *
One thing that is very hard to figure out is how many illegal immigrants enter who are not apprehended? I couldn't come up with any information about that. Apprehensions seems to be the best proxy.
Never saw Willie Horton as racist. I mean, Duke let a convicted killer out on parole, and he raped/killed again. And the Duke, just said "Well, those are the breaks".
The Duke also said he was a "Card carrying remember of the ACLU".
BTW, hate crimes are at a all time 20 year low in the country. So why are we getting all upset about Pittsburg and Pipe bombs?
That's liberal logic applied consistently.
People wouldn't be so concerned about crime if our murder rate weren't 10 times as high as the rate in civilised countries (5.35/100K in the US, vs. 0.28 for Japan, 0.70 for Korea, and 0.54 for gun-ridden Switzerland). Just do your jobs!
What I see in your statistics is, crime is vastly lower in homogeneous societies.
So much for DIVERSITY!
So are you advocating for, or, against, immigration?
Attack a Jewish Leftist and you're an antisemite
Attack a Black Democrat and you're a racist.
Attack a Mexican Ilegal alien and you're xenophobe and a racist.
Attack a female Pol and you're s sexist.
The Left and the Democrats NEVER change their playbook. But no one can just counterattack, and call them race baiters and Smear Merchants. No, we the Rebublicans always have to go on the defensive and do their "Nobody hates X, more than me. I'm not a racist/bigot/homophone. And here's my 22 page explaining why"
This NEVER works. Which is why Trump just fights back.
Looks like a white Hispanic to me - so it's impossible for racism to be a factor.
@Big Mike,
I saw your comment (9:15 am) after I already posted mine. I remember when that ad came out. I don't know if I saw the complete ad or only saw part of it on the news. But I remember thinking, "How is this racist? Are we not allowed to talk about crime at all, if the perpetrator is black? And who would think letting a convicted murderer out of prison for a vacation was a good idea?" I was still a liberal at the time, but I think that was one of several milestones for me. To use today's terminology, the Horton ad, and the media's reaction to it, was a miniature red pill for me. It took quite a few to wake me up entirely.
We only have a few hate crimes in this country. Why are the Democrats always working up fear on the issue?
The story reminds me of the NY Times discussion of crime awhile back:
Prison Population Growing Although Crime Rate Drops
Dave Begley said...
Isn't Trump's tweet factually true? A guy who was deported returned to CA and he killed. But for CA's sanctuary laws and the open border, the victims would be alive today. The race of the murderer is irrelevant.
Truth is racist.
Math is both sexist and racist.
Get with the program!
Because that was policy, Horton had 10 furloughs, just like Katie steinle's killer had six chances, but he fell through the cracks.
Apprehensions seems to be the best proxy.
Perhaps if you are interested in downplaying the problem.
re, the Willie Horton ad. The leftist are asking all to believe that a white convicted murderer that was released on furlough, that did the same thing, would not have spurred the ad.
That's a lie.
"His point, which is correct, is that the number of illegal immigrants crossing our borders has has dropped in the past decade."
So what? The number should be ZERO. After which the number should become a negative as every single one of them is returned home.
Henry,
Your data shows what I said pretty much - and it is interesting that its got a strong element of seasonality. Down in winter, up in the spring.
2017 is entirely outside the pattern. The "season" was suppressed, its a very backward year, with it seems a surge late in 2016 early 2017 to get in before rhe expected lowering of the boom. The Trump effect in a picture.
2018 is back to "normal", same magnitude and pattern as 2013, 2016. No lowering of the boom.
Also notable in that it does more or less track the economy. The Obama economy was indeed trying to break through to sustained growth in 2014, but ran out of steam in 2015.
So it is racist to be afraid or at least concerned about murderous psychopaths?
I don't think you know what racist means.
If the government leaves a vacuum.....others WILL step up to find the remedy.....sayeth Cassandra.
That is how the Taliban took power.
Oh, come on! You're more likely to die in a car crash than be murdered by an illegal alien, unless you're Kate Steinle or Mollie Tibbetts or those cops in California or one of the other hundreds of victims of illegal aliens.
Well, I'm sure that Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi would say that you can't make an immigrant Democrat voter omelet without breaking a few eggs. Tough luck if you're one of them. Democrats don't care if you're part of the "collateral damage" to get them back in power.
Gahrie said, "Perhaps if you are interested in downplaying the problem."
Quite seriously, I don't know if there is a better proxy. You can assume that border controls are getting worse over time, in which case apprehensions understate a growth pattern. Or you can assume that border controls are static or getting better over time, in which case apprehensions are a good proxy. Now that we're in the Trump era, the assumption that border controls are getting worse is an interesting one.
Virgil,
I would agree with you that if they darkened the picture to make Willie Horton appear more menacing that would indeed be racist.
My point, and I could be remembering is wrong, is that the only ad that shows Willie Horton's face was done by Al Gore.
The Willie Horton ad done by the Bush campaign did not show his face, instead it showed a line of convicts of different races walking through a turnstyle while a voiceover described what Willie Horton did.
Now, if I am wrong I will apologize here for being so. But if I am right then the only racist version of this ad was done by Al Gore, and since Al Gore is a democrat it cannot be racist.
Dukakis. Tank. Helmet. That's what did him in.
"They did change the name from William to Willie - I believe that crossed the line."
I always thought that Willie Nelson was black.
I'm grateful for the people who have decided to dedicate their lives to interpreting the actions of others, filtering it through their own biases, and telling me how to think accordingly.
God knows my brain couldn't handle the act of digesting raw information and analyzing it myself.
Clyde said...
Oh, come on! You're more likely to die in a car crash than be murdered by an illegal alien, unless you're Kate Steinle or Mollie Tibbetts or those cops in California or one of the other hundreds of victims of illegal aliens.
In the police blotter run in the local newspapers here in CNY a surprising percentage of names listed in the DWI/DUI list are Spanish sounding with no fixed address. An even larger percentage of driving without a license....
"Oh, come on! You're more likely to die in a car crash than be murdered by an illegal alien, unless you're Kate Steinle or Mollie Tibbetts or those cops in California or one of the other hundreds of victims of illegal aliens."
There are tens of thousands of fatalities from automobile accidents annually in the U.S.
Illegal immigrants are not a significant cause of increased murder or violent crime rates in the U.S. each year.
Before getting all outraged about a lie, you should at least be able to point out what the lie is.
Once again, President Trump has got the left duped into defending an illegal alien, that laughed about killing cops, and wishing he had killed more.
If not for CNN, MSDNC, etal, bringing this to the fore, I would never have known of this POS.
The bonus is letting the voters know that the Democrat Party thinks putting convicted murderers out on furlough is them showing compassion.
Statistically, few children are killed by pipe bombs, so one should be under every Christmas trees this season.
"So what? The number should be ZERO. After which the number should become a negative as every single one of them is returned home."
That will never happen, but reduction is going in the right direction. That aside, the salient point is that illegal immigration into our country is not at crisis levels. It's just your old-fashioned fear-mongering rhetoric intended to win votes. The Republicans seem to be the most constantly terrified people in the U.S. of A.
I asked a group of my very liberal friends recently what their approach to immigration would be. I was stunned to find that every one of them said that illegal immigration should be controlled. When the subject was not Trump policy versus Democrats' policy but rather what the individual would like to see, there was no open borders talk, no get rid of ICE, etc. This is why I think Trump holds all the cards. The vast majority of people would like to see a better policy, even the member of my family who hates Trump and thinks that the "children in pens" is right up there with capital punishment as the chief evil in America. Still favors controlling illegal immigration, but doesn't know how.
" The Republicans seem to be the most constantly terrified people in the U.S. of A."
Someone here doesn't watch CNN or MSNBC!
Clyde said...
Oh, come on! You're more likely to die in a car crash than be murdered by an illegal alien,
Where I live, if you get in a fender bender, the odds are over 50% that the other party is an illegal with no drivers license, and no insurance. That's according to two body shops that I know the owners. Oh, as an added benefit, the local cops refuse to take any action against the driver. They cant lock them up, because they cant afford to, and they ignore any summons issued against them...because they cant lock them up.
Robert Cook said, "...the number of illegal immigrants crossing our borders has has dropped in the past decade."
Good. Let's drop it some more. Something like zero would be ideal.
If the Repubs would actually admit to how much crime has dropped in the past two decades would have little else to run on.
I'm sorry. I couldn't hear you over the shrill womanlike screaming about how one in five women is raped in college. But enough about Obama.
Which party was fomenting rape hysteria by doctoring the way the FBI recorded sexual assaults? Which side is removing due process from our colleges for the same rape hysteria, where women are able to remove consent ex post facto?
Yeah, not Republicans.
I expect a retraction.
We have one party that openly supports lawlessness in immigration, voting, criminal justice policies, and a host of other areas, and they still get half the votes of Americans. What has happened to our people? Where did they pick up this suicidal stupidity?
Oh yea, public education and universities.
"There are tens of thousands of fatalities from automobile accidents annually in the U.S.
Illegal immigrants are not a significant cause of increased murder or violent crime rates in the U.S. each year."
Yes. However, the federal government is nearly powerless to stop automobile deaths, but the federal government can solve crime by illegal aliens.
They could do that the liberal way by making all of them legal aliens.
Or
They could do that the conservative way of enforcing the border, and bringing sanctuary states/cities to heel.
Henry studiously ignoring the Great Recession.
The Soros open-society concept requires that the United States be removed as a superpower and that the American people be subjected to the will and wants of all the world's people.
Go fuck yourselves.
The Open Society Institute is the cornerstone for the Soros Foundations Network, a group of Soros-funded organizations in more than 50 countries, which promote open-society concepts by influencing governmental policies.
The various branches and paid instrumentalities of the network include Democracy Alliance, MoveOn.org, America Coming Together, America Votes, The Center for American Progress, and other leftist front organizations, which advocate open borders for the United States — not for other nations but for the United States. These Soros-funded groups finance his camp followers, among them the Democratic Party, the National Organization of Women, abortion advocacy groups, various environmental groups, and last but not least, the increasingly powerful immigration special interest groups.
They are a significant cause of depressed working-class wages. Something that benefits most Hillary supporters.
"I asked a group of my very liberal friends recently what their approach to immigration would be. I was stunned to find that every one of them said that illegal immigration should be controlled."
This is because, contrary to dishonest claims to the contrary, most people in this country of whatever political perspective do not think illegal aliens should be permitted to stream unimpeded into our country, and most think immigration should be controlled. The disagreement is simply over exactly what should be done and how.
So Robert Cook's official stance is "Unless and until more people die from illegal aliens than from automobile accidents, we shouldn't do anything at all and it's racist to even try! Enjoy the rapings and mobbings, sucker! Vote Democrat for even more!"
buwaya,
While I understand your desire to use facts to clarify the situation, the "facts" you are quoting are the Left's facts, also known as "lies". Liberal but honest researchers at MIT and Yale published their findings in September of this year. The abstract says;
"Our conservative estimate is 16.7 million for 2016, nearly fifty percent higher than the most prominent current estimate of 11.3 million, which is based on survey data and thus different sources and methods. The mean estimate based on our simulation analysis is 22.1 million, essentially double the current widely accepted estimate."
Their high-end estimate was over 30 million. But the main point is, the uncertainty is larger than the mean. No one has the foggiest idea.
The Democrats see Open Borders as the perfect way to implement the Cloward-Piven Strategy which they have made the cornerstone of their policy to deconstruct the United States.
The disagreement is simply over exactly what should be done and how.
Well, hand wringing and sanctuary cities doesn't seem to be the answer so how about we try something else, hmm?
By the way, WHICH party has members calling for the abolition of ICE? Which party is the one creating sanctuary cities?
Come ON, Cook! You are a hawk on illegal immigration. You have said so many times. You are defending the wrong people on this issue.
Liberals are all for border controls as long as the inflow of future Democrats remains unimpeded.
The issue is, are we allowed to screen immigrants? It doesn’t matter what the ratios are amongst different groups. Here we have people coming in, can we screen *them*? Even if prospective immigrants were less of a risk than residents, we would still want to screen them, right? No say many on the Left, no screening for you! Well, this is what you get.
The ad is not directed at immigrants. It is directed at Democrats who would deny us the right to screen.
@Buwaya -- it will be interesting to see the next year's of data.
The 2017 FY dip is pretty amazing as a psychological artifact. The 2018 return to the decade's average numbers shows that illegal immigrants, if not Democrats, figured out Trump's realm of the possible.
So Robert Cook's official stance is "Unless and until more people die from illegal aliens than from automobile accidents, we shouldn't do anything at all and it's racist to even try! Enjoy the rapings and mobbings, sucker! Vote Democrat for even more!"
Not so. Robert Cook has said several times that he is strongly against illegal immigration.
However, he can't seem to throw off his NPC programming and political indoctrination enough to maybe join the Republican side on THIS issue, if no other. The mental jump of 'Republicans =/= bad constantly' seems a mental jump he just can't make.
So instead, he weakly attacks some overwrought hyperbole but his heart clearly isn't in it.
I blame his game designers.
Robert Cook:
"The disagreement is simply over exactly what should be done and how."
That's right. But Dem candidates for office cannot admit that, or advocate for anything except opposition to anything that is being done to control border crossings. Ditto all commentators on CNN MSNBC and the networks.
Look at Cook's argument. More people die on the roads than die of Lupus, so let's not try to cure Lupus.
Can we screen immigrants? Cook says no. We could have prevented deaths by keeping this guy out. It doesn’t matter that he is a rarity if we are not allowed to screen even for such rarities.
They are a significant cause of depressed working-class wages. Something that benefits most Hillary supporters.
Not so much.
The significant cause of depressed wages is intentional policy changes to benefit the rich at the expense of the rest of us.
Automation, transfer of jobs overseas, elimination of jobs that have become obsolete, loss of labor power due to shrinking unions...these are all part of it. Illegal immigrants are just the scapegoats to divert attention away from the real causes, to forestall discussion of what to do about these real causes.
I would just like people who support illegal immigration to take in one random family each to their homes and support them, because that's what you are asking the country to do without their agreement. Over 50% of immigrants get some form of taxpayer funded welfare.
Clyde: "Well, I'm sure that Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi would say that you can't make an immigrant Democrat voter omelet without breaking a few eggs."
Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi AND the LLR Chuck's of the world, as Chuck has demonstrated conclusively in this thread.
Unexpectedly.
@Henry.
The data problem is similar to the one of rape. An unknowable number of rapes and sexual assaults are NOT reported. We don't know so Feminists make shit up and assert it as fact.
But this isn't a data problem. Whether ICE is doing a bad job or a good job, they clearly are not doing ENOUGH of a job so we need to improve and make it more difficult for free passage.
One can't see 11 million illegals in the and think they are doing a bang up job.
Here's an article about that Yale study: Yale Study Finds Twice as Many Undocumented Immigrants as Previous Estimates
Key graf:
The 11.3 million number is extrapolated from the Census Bureau’s annual American Community Survey. “It’s been the only method used for the last three decades,” says Mohammad Fazel‐Zarandi, a senior lecturer at the MIT Sloan School of Management and formerly a postdoctoral associate and lecturer in operations at the Yale School of Management. That made the researchers curious—could they reproduce the number using a different methodology?
The approach in the new research was based on operational data, such as deportations and visa overstays, and demographic data, including death rates and immigration rates. “We combined these data using a demographic model that follows a very simple logic,” [Professor Edward] Kaplan says. “The population today is equal to the initial population plus everyone who came in minus everyone who went out. It’s that simple.”
While the logic is simple—tally the inflows and outflows over time—actually gathering, assessing, and inserting the data appropriately into a mathematical model isn’t at all simple. Because there is significant uncertainty, the results are presented as a range. After running 1,000,000 simulations of the model, the researchers’ 95% probability range is 16 million to 29 million, with 22.1 million as the mean.
Importantly, the Computer Model shows the same rate information I've referenced already -- a large rise in illegal immigrants through the financial crash in 2007 has been level in the 10 years since.
This is also worth calling out:
“One of the most common arguments in favor of a tougher immigration policy is that undocumented immigrants are coming with a lot of criminality,” Kaplan notes. But paradoxically, the new findings may undercut that argument. He points out that previous studies, based on the widely accepted total of 11.3 million undocumented immigrants, found that the rate of serious crimes committed by these immigrants is lower than for U.S. citizens. The new findings suggest that the rate is even lower than previously believed: “You have the same number of crimes but now spread over twice as many people as was believed before, which right away means that the crime rate among undocumented immigrants is essentially half whatever was previously believed.”
Robert Cook at 11:09 AM
... most people in this country of whatever political perspective do not think illegal aliens should be permitted to stream unimpeded into our country, and most think immigration should be controlled.
Cities governed by Democrats are sanctuary cities, where control of immigration is prevented by city law.
A guy who believes in the Labor Theory of Value is explaining to us that competition doesn't affect wages.
... most people in this country of whatever political perspective do not think illegal aliens should be permitted to stream unimpeded into our country, and most think immigration should be controlled.
Very sweet sentiment, Cook. But it doesn't include ELECTED officials in California all of whom are Democrats. It also doesn't include Democrat power brokers in Texas who want more illegal immigrants to hopefully turn Texas blue.
I expect that eventually President Trump will direct the FBI to report the immigration status of criminals in the annual statistics.
That reform will enable a huge improvement in the public's discussion of the effect of immigration on our country's crime.
One could ask Cuomo or Lemon how they would feel if one of the officers Bracamontes killed were their father or their brother, and then let them give this same spiel. Those old enough will remember why I propose this hypothetical, and will know how it played out at the time.
Look, the ad is devastatingly effective, and there is no good reply for it from the Left at the moment- at least not one that works. The Left are just on the wrong side of this issue politically and can't bring themselves yet to fix that. At the moment, they try to straddle the issue by ignoring completely, but Trump isn't letting them ignore it, and that is how you get this passionless defense that misses the point. In other words, Lemon and Cuomo can't just admit that Bracamontes shouldn't have been in the US to begin with, and that the porous border is the cause of those officers' deaths- they can't say this because the Democrats have taken the position that the border doesn't need any additional enforcement or realigned incentives for crossing it. The leadership of the Republican Party had the same positions in 2015, but Trump is and has changed that. Lemon and Cuomo and the rest of the Democrats are just hoping to make it through the midterms without having this issue blow up on them.
As someone who has managed a labor-intensive business for over 30 years, I can assure you that immigration very much negatively wages. Back in the 80s and 90s we took advantage of that, and felt righteous about it, but over the years it became clear that many immigrants were hurting this country, its workers and its taxpayers though lower wages and overuse of state benefits and resources. To be fair, much of the problem has been Americans simply unwilling to work at many jobs that need done. Businesses are often in a position of simply not having a viable business if they use only American workers. This has gotten better recently. I see more young Americans willing to work at blue collar jobs now than in the past. The failure of their college educated friends to find work even after the enormous expense is changing attitudes for the better.
I see Bay Area Guy is one of the people old enough to remember.
A mew race is discovered: fat white guys with mustaches.
Yes, it was Al Gore who first used Willie Horton against Dukakis in the 88 primaries.
That's because Trump has already gone a long way toward fixing the economy but immigration has yet to be addressed.
Trump knows he’s running for re-election based on his 2016 campaign promises and wants to claim a mandate on immigration should the R’s keep the House.
“I’ll fix immigration” certainly polls better than “the Democrats will try to roll back the tax cuts but we’ll probably keep the Senate and I’ll never agree”.
Willie Horton was the real victim in all of this.
There needs to be emigration reform to mitigate the progress of collateral damage from immigration reform, unsafe elective regime changes, abortion fields, population replacement, anti-nativism, trail of tears, labor arbitrage, gerrymandered votes, redistributive change, murder, rape (and rape-rape), etc. at both ends of the bridge and throughout.
That said, the rate of immigration should not exceed the rate of assimilation and integration before Planned Parenthood, including but not limited to selective-child ("wicked solution").
And BAG makes another point in that comment that I wish I had made in mine- the discussion about the Willie Horton ad from the Left never acknowledges who and what Horton did and how it came about that it happened- Horton is just mentioned by name with the understanding that people on the Left will just ignore the history itself. The ad was directed at Dukakis (and first done by Al Gore in the primaries), not black people. It is arguably not even racist in that regard- that is why it was so effective for Bush Sr.'s campaign. It didn't work for Gore because the audience in the primary is different than the general election.
You see the same thing here in the CNN discussion- they don't want to talk about Bracamontes, what he did, and why he was able to do it. They are talking solely to the Left here, and so it isn't a defense against the ad- the racist label has nearly lost its political effect on Republicans- you can thank Trump for that, by the way.
Two thoughts about this.
First, WaPo is engaging in a modified form of civility bullshit: Don't you dare try to suggest a link between illegality in immigration and illegality in other spheres, let alone suggest that illegal immigration has consequences like this. Even worse to sink so low as to suggest a correlation between crime and race. The point of the WaPo treatment is to mark all such discussions as off limits.
Second, your discussion of "discounting" as part of a decision-making process is a good example of homo economicus in action -- rational and analytical to an extreme, even as it tries to filter out the various emotional and non-rational factors and put them in a box.
Yes, it was Al Gore who first used Willie Horton against Dukakis in the 88 primaries.
That was BEFORE it became a classic example of racial cuing.
Most everything done by undocumented immigrants goes unreported (undocumented), including their crimes, which mostly affect other illegals. Most crime by illegals is never reported because of who does it (they are hard to find and identify as the criminal) and who the victims are who do not report it.
But hey, we have statistics, incomplete and inaccurate, but they tell many what they want to hear.
Confession - I cannot find support for what I sure I had read years ago about the Horton mugshot being darkened to enhance the effect. So I could be wrong! They did change the name from William to Willie - I believe that crossed the line.
That's two strikes. First you blew it on the Gore (v. Bush) ad. Now ...
... even Slick Willie thinks you are desperate to find racism where none exists.
Chuck proclaimed, "he is not more representative of illegal aliens"
What part of "illegal" are you having trouble grasping. Of course he's representative of illegal aliens.
We should, by right, be able to account for every person who crosses our boarder.
Yancey Ward, the left also ignores that George H.W. Bush did not use the Willie Horton issue in his campaign. A group supporting Bush did. Once again, it was a dog whistle for racism even though Bush wasn't the one using the ad.
Henry wrote:
"But even the murder rate doesn't explain why hard-on-crime politics works. In many communities, many counties, some entire states, the murder rate is very low. Violent crime rates in great swaths of the country are quite low."
And what are the distinguishing characteristics of those swaths? It is those differences that explain the effectiveness of the two ads separated by 30 years. In other words, those low crime areas want to stay that way. It is even the case that the high crime areas want to change enough that the ads have some effect there, too, that Democrats don't actually like.
"As someone who has managed a labor-intensive business for over 30 years, I can assure you that immigration very much negatively wages."
How accurately can you scale up your anecdotal experience to the entire country and the broad range of jobs available in many and sundry locations? What you describe was true in your experience, and, no doubt, elsewhere. However, spread out over the whole of the nation, the number of wage-depressing illegal workers is actually pretty thin on the ground.
"Back in the 80s and 90s we took advantage of that, and felt righteous about it, but over the years it became clear that many immigrants were hurting this country, its workers and its taxpayers though lower wages and overuse of state benefits and resources."
In short, the problem was employers seeking cheaper labor, and willing to employ illegal aliens to do so.
"To be fair, much of the problem has been Americans simply unwilling to work at many jobs that need done. Businesses are often in a position of simply not having a viable business if they use only American workers."
So, there really wasn't a problem of illegals "stealing" jobs away from American workers or depressing wages...the Americans didn't want the jobs and employers found an opportunity to get cheap labor to fill the unwanted jobs.
"This has gotten better recently. I see more young Americans willing to work at blue collar jobs now than in the past. The failure of their college educated friends to find work even after the enormous expense is changing attitudes for the better."
Fine, so now that Americans need or want the blue collar jobs, the employers will (or should) fire all their illegal employees and hire the American workers at higher wages...right?
At bottom, the problem is not illegal aliens, but employers seeking cheaper workers. This is the perennial problem: employers want to maximize their profits, and paying less to their workers (or cutting the number of their workers) is the way to do it. This is why the wage-depressing foreign workers we are most hurt by are those working overseas, (or brought in legally on work visas by their employers).
And don't forget the robotic workers!
Gahrie asked: How can the number be static when hundreds of thousands more come every year?
Because hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants leave the U.S. each year
It isn't static. New estimates are as high as 30 million illegals in the US.
On the one hand we're told people are flocking here to escape miserable places and such extreme conditions that we have to take them in to save their lives. Then, when it's politically advantageous, we're told that illegals, once here, actually have no preference to stay and will eventually return home. It's all bullshit to forward political goals.
Allow unlimited immigration for doctors, RNs, lawyers, college professors, entertainers, investment bankers and advisers and lets see how fast the conversation changes. Henry, a question for you: do we have a shortage of poor people and criminals and a need increase the number of criminals and of the poor? Not enough work for cops, prosecutors and prison guards? Not enough work for the welfare industry workers?
I checked Wikipedia, and while it's correct that it was not Bush who produced the Willie Horton ad, Wiki claims that Bush brought the furlough program up in campaign speeches and mentioned Horton. wiki also reports that Al Gore brought up the furlough program but not the name of Horton. I don't know if this is the final word.
"That's because Trump has already gone a long way toward fixing the economy but immigration has yet to be addressed."
Has he? What has he actually done? What makes you think our economy is actually fixed?
"So, there really wasn't a problem of illegals "stealing" jobs away from American workers or depressing wages...the Americans didn't want the jobs and employers found an opportunity to get cheap labor to fill the unwanted jobs. "
There is the problem that those people would rather live off the taxpayers than fend for themselves. If illegals can get jobs, so can able bodied welfare recipients.
So, Cook, if we all agree that illegal immigration should be controlled and we only differ on what to do about it, what is your side's suggestion? Because from our side's perepective, your side's answer is "encourage it as much as possible, including defending the concept of sanctuary cities and giving drivers licenses to illegals, and most importantly label anyone who opposes these things a racist".
Seriously. Cause that's all we EVER see.
I didn't read the article but I am shocked the Wapo used the accurate term of "Illegal immigrant" in its headline. One of their many layers of idiotors must have been asleep.
"Fine, so now that Americans need or want the blue collar jobs, the employers will (or should) fire all their illegal employees and hire the American workers at higher wages...right?
At bottom, the problem is not illegal aliens, but employers seeking cheaper workers"
So you're in favor of providing low-wage proles for the corporatists, Bob? I guess you can dance around both sides of a discussion if you want, but you're bleeding cred.
Bernie Sanders is trying to organize a caravan to Venezuela.
Reminds me of Michael Dukakis. Where is he now?
One of the most common arguments in favor of a tougher immigration policy is that undocumented immigrants are coming with a lot of criminality
It doesn't matter (to me) if it is "a lot". If it is "some" that's enough reason to screen at the border. You are massively screened to get into a plane. It seems reasonable to do cursory check for MS13 tattoos before getting into a country.
"There is the problem that those people would rather live off the taxpayers than fend for themselves. If illegals can get jobs, so can able bodied welfare recipients."
Many able-bodied welfare recipients do work...at jobs that do not provide a living wage.
Many others on welfare are short-term recipients. (I have known a few people in my life who have had to obtain government assistance. In each case, they needed the assistance for short periods of time, and did not renew their applications for assistance once they found jobs.)
In short, one cannot make a simplistic assumption about who receives welfare, for how long, or why they need it. I can tell you from witnessing those I have known who received assistance, the money and/or benefits provided is paltry, either barely sufficient or outright insufficient to meet basic needs.
tim in vermont: A guy who believes in the Labor Theory of Value is explaining to us that competition doesn't affect wages.
Sometimes it's hard to tell the difference between a commie and a CoC "conservative" when it comes to pooh-poohing citizens' exasperation with uncontrolled immigration. Same arguments, same uncritically accepted stats, same indifference to actual concerns.
One way to spot the commie is his tendency to attribute all policy disagreements to his opponents' living in a constant state of inchoate primal fear, induced by politicians. (Which misapprehension, while highly comical, is an understandable projection from someone who thinks the country is full of nazis and is going to go full fascist any minute now.)
"So you're in favor of providing low-wage proles for the corporatists, Bob?"
Hmmm...poor reading comprehension, or dishonest debate tactics? Where in what I have said can you infer I encourage low-wage jobs? You can't, I know you can't, you know I know you can't. This is why I choose B: dishonest debate tactics.
FAIL
Cities governed by Democrats are sanctuary cities, where control of immigration is prevented by city law."
And California is a defacto Sanctuary state. Proof of Citizenship is not required to get welfare or vote. It all operates on the "Honor System".
AJ Lynch at 12:06 PM
I am shocked the Wapo used the accurate term of "Illegal immigrant" in its headline
The correct legal term is illegal alien.
Robert Cook said...
Has he? What has he actually done? What makes you think our economy is actually fixed?
For the first time in decades wages are growing faster than inflation.
And it happened because taxes were cut and regulations lifted.
Everything the Federal Government does is for the benefit of the big Corporations. As the federal government grows so does the size of our businesses. The regulations are written and enforced by people who work in the big corporations.
If you want to help poor people you will shrink the federal government in size and influence.
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