"There’s only been five times in the last 105 years that an incumbent President has won seats in the Senate in the off-year election. Mr. Trump has magic about him. This guy has magic coming out his ears. He is an astonishing vote-getter, an astonishing campaigner. Republicans are unbelievably lucky to have him, and I’m just awed at how well they’ve done… It’s all the Trump magic. Trump is a magic man."Trump tweeted the text of that quote, which you can see at Mediaite or in his Twitter feed, where you can also see his other reactions to yesterday's election results. Only 4 other tweets so far:
1. "Tremendous success tonight. Thank you to all!"
2. "@DavidAsmanfox 'How do the Democrats respond to this? Think of how his position with Republicans improves-all the candidates who won tonight. They realize how important he is because of what he did in campaigning for them. They owe him their political career.' Thanks, I agree!"
3. "Received so many Congratulations from so many on our Big Victory last night, including from foreign nations (friends) that were waiting me out, and hoping, on Trade Deals. Now we can all get back to work and get things done!"
4. "Ron DeSantis showed great courage in his hard fought campaign to become the Governor of Florida. Congratulations to Ron and family!"
That is, the one person he singled out, of all the many candidates he tried to help, is Ron DeSantis. That was 10 minutes ago, so expect more specific congratulations like that. I wonder if Trump will eventually address the GOP loss of the House, but I note that he concentrated his support on Senate candidates. Here's a list (at Wikipedia) of all of the rallies Trump has done since his election. There are a few of yesterday's losers on that list. One is Dean Heller, who lost his bid for the Senate seat for Nevada. Another is Leah Vukmir, who lost in my state, Wisconsin, as was predicted.
If you look at the Governors races, you'll see the Republicans lost a lot — the Democrats flipped 7 states — and one of the governor candidates for who lost despite a Trump rally, was Scott Walker. That was a completely close race, and who knows if Trump "magic" helped or hurt. Trump also rallied for Kris Kobach in Kansas and Adam Laxalt in Nevada, both of whom lost their race for Governor.
Anyway, Trump will, obviously, concentrate on his success with the Senate candidates. What can he say about the seats lost in the House? In the flippable districts, he really couldn't help, and he basically didn't try. I assume that means that, going forward, the House Republicans will be stauncher Republicans, and there will be a lot of Democrats who, facing reelection in 2020, will be susceptible to Trump's dealmaking. There will also be a lot of new, activist, left-wing Democrats to be wrangled. It will be interesting, and we'll see how Trump's "magic" works in the newly reconfigured game.
ADDED: Another new Trump tweet:
Those that worked with me in this incredible Midterm Election, embracing certain policies and principles, did very well. Those that did not, say goodbye! Yesterday was such a very Big Win, and all under the pressure of a Nasty and Hostile Media!If you lost, it's your fault. If you won, it was thanks to me.
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75 comments:
But the Senate map in 2018 was wildly, historically favorable for Republicans. The most naturally favorable map in 80 or 90 years. The Republicans SHOULD have won with that map. I didn't see you acknowledge or account for that, Althouse. Trump will not, of course.
Althouse, you had Trump fans on your comments pages predicting that Republicans would hold the House and get to 60 votes in the Senate. Such is the wild, baseless enthusiasm of the Trump base.
Aha! That "added" Trump Tweet and you comment nails it, Althouse. Trump is claiming personal credit for the wins, and blaming the losses on candidates having not followed him closely enough.
In just a few hours, we will have another Trump press conference. He can dig that hole a bit deeper then.
I look forward to house investigation comedy. You can't beat dem politicians for that.
Republicans didn't lose as much of the House as I thought. Or what most pollsters predicted until The Tightening of the Polls that happens just prior y9 the election. This was the best realistic option for Republicans. How much Trump hurt or helped likely won't be known for a long time, if ever.
Incumbents are usually tough to beat. So kudos to all those who ousted incumbents, Dem and GOP.
The GOP lost the House and Heller lost. Walker lost, too.
But it was a pretty good night for the GOP and Trump. Compare to the much-beloved Obama in 2010. That was a red wave. The GOP picked up a Senate seat in Massachusetts back then.
Nelson was a three-term Senator. He gone. McCaskill was a two-term Senator. She gone.
Heitkamp and Donnelley were crushed.
Paul Ryan, Jeff Flake, and Bob Corker are also gone.
Trump’s gloating is amusing. But not unwarranted.
This election reinforces the fact that a slim majority of Americans are socialists who will vote for openly socialist candidates and openly socialist policies. We continue our drift towards a kind of soft, Euro-style dictatorship, and we will get there.
2020 is the true test of Trumpian magic. I suspect he will be a one-term President.
Democrats are now calling for a constitutional amendment to change how Senate seats are apportioned. Article V effectively prohibits such and amendment: "no State, without its Consent, shall be deprived of its equal Suffrage in the Senate..."
"If you lost, it's your fault. If you won, it was thanks to me."
That succinctly sums up Trump's view of the world and himself. Another is:
"I never lose, but when I do, it's never my fault."
Q Adam Shifty-D Creepy Clown. He's moving in with the honchos at CNN.
We are, on both sides, wildly enthusiastic Chuck. I'm seeing love fest articles on losing Texas Senate hopeful BETO! even as we write. The Dems had a great night, winning their first large number of seats in over 8 years. Congrats. Now you have to do something beside just wring hands, whine, and accuse. If you do just that, in two years this will all be reversed.
You're on the clock.
Dems don't understand tense. Trump is laying out the future when he talks.
Average House loss after new President is, as I recall, 32. So this is just an average mid term change. A wave is what happened to Obama in 2010. Another difference, in 2010 the entire MSM was pulling for Obama in 2010 and against Trump in 2018. (FNC is not part of MSM, a worldview designation.) Upsetting incumbent Senators was a huge deal. But the actions of the House basically left no chance to resist the historic norm. It's been pretty apparent for the last two years that the House leadership is more interested in what J Street thinks than Main Street.
From afar, it looked like Scott Walker was a terrific Governor. Wisconsin seemed to regain its footing during his time as Gov. I know half (or more) of that state reflexively votes Dem just because, but what does Evers bring to the table that Walker was not doing? I ask that earnestly having no knowledge of Tony Evers at all.
Is he just another off-the-line liberal ready to raise taxes and spend on 'sounds good' projects for his hand-picked favored groups (as most pols do)? Or does he bring something new and positive to the table? Wait- let me rephrase that. Who is this guy?
I hope Wisconsin gives more power to teachers' unions. That's always a good lesson.
Here are my biggest disappointments
Michigan - Stabenow? Really?
Keith Ellison for AG in MN where he was credibly accused of abuse.
CO - a total clusterfuck of imported pot smokers now control our testicles.
New Jersey - not a total surprise, but Menendez is the most corrupt vile creature ever, and they are OK with that.
Walker was governor a long time, given he faced a recall election. Maybe people just wanted someone new. He did allright considering Tammy won handily.
Maybe Trump will give Walker a job.
It truly is telling that Democrat wife beaters and Menendez didn't get The Roy Moore treatment.
Biggest effect nationally is the Ds will begin House investigations of Trump and the Rs will push through a historic number of federal judges, possibly two more SCOTUS nominees, plus treaties that don’t need House involvement.
Trump better figure out how to win 50% of the ex felon vote in Florida if he wants to get re-elected.
Ds sweep executive offices in WI but Rs add to majorities in state legislature. The gerrymander from 2011 pays off again big time for Wisconsin Rs. Evers has to govern as a moderate D. It helps him that voters everywhere in WI approved tax increases for schools thru referendums. My taxes just went up $1,000 per year for 20 years from the local school referendum. Evers wins and taxes immediately go up. So it goes.
This morning Mika Joe wailing and lamenting how racist America is for not voting more D and rejecting orange man. They should probably kill themself...
Apparently MSM says the results were a mandate on healthcare. How they think this result helps isn’t considered.
There will be two years of house investigating, campaigning for 2020 and Maxine Waters craycray.
Artificial Indian lady will have trouble drawing attention to herself with all the wailing from the House.
The Packers suck this year, again. Tom Brady slapped them around the other day. Probably hurt turnout for Walker. Voters hold Walker responsible that Aaron Rodgers isn’t as good as Brady and Brees.
Chuck said...Althouse, you had Trump fans on your comments pages predicting that Republicans would hold the House and get to 60 votes in the Senate
Typical. That was 1 guy, but in the lefty imagination, it's everybody ("Trump fans," yeah). Sure, the Senate map favoured Republicans, but your kidding yourself if you think it's that easy to beat an incumbent. +3 is a big deal. With all sorts of tailwinds, the Dems could barely make historical average in the House and lost big in the Senate.
Now they have a decision to make. Are they the loyal opposition or are they the resistance? The answer to that question will tell you whether the Republicans get the House back in 2020 or the Dems expand their hold.
Biggest loser last night #MeToo and the caravan(s). Now go sit on tue trash heap with that no war Cindy Bush lady.
With so many GOP incumbents not running Democrats SHOULD have won the House- by a bigger margin than they did. 1/2 dozen races were won by razor thin margins of 1-2 percent.
It truly is telling that Democrat wife beaters and Menendez didn't get The Roy Moore treatment.
Indeed.
Packers SUCK at clock management. Brady gets three completions in the time it takes the Packers offense to sort themselves out for the next play.
Trump can now fire Jeff Sessions
Beto and Paul Ryan can now open Kept Men Consultants, Inc.
In CO -the D's won it all. BUT - all the tax hikes went down in flames.... From roads to schools.
I don't think the pot smoker kids of CO know what they are in for. Major tax rape for "universal free everything" is on the way.
No matter how you slice it, President Trump the power that delivered these results. The media would have flipped the Senate and the House would have been 45 seats flipped.
Not a single person on the planet can get electoral results like President Trump.
Republicans don't want to govern...its hard work. President keeps dragging them back into the fight.
A lot of the house seats that flipped to Democrats were split districts: they went for Clinton in the Presidential vote, and the Republican candidate in the House vote.
I suspect a lot of these voters didn't like Trump or Clinton, thought Clinton would win, so voted for a Republican House as a check on her Presidency. Having gotten a President Trump instead, they now want a Democrat house to act as a check on him.
Not really a repudiation of anything Trump (or their Congressman) did, just a preference for divided government.
oh wait...
JOSH HAWLEY!!!!!!!!!
It was obvious that the Reps would gain seats in the Senate and the Dems would gain seats in the House. All the money and blather only affected the margins.
The only races that surprised me were McSally doing so poorly (she seems like a crappy candidate) and Scott beating Nelson. Everything else on both sides was fantasy. Manchin, Menendez and Cruz were never going to lose. Wisconsin is tired of Walker.
Now that the Dems have the House, they can act like the SJC clowns or they can show a semblance of maturity. My bet is on the former.
Should be fun to watch Trump outmaneuver Pelosi and the Dems. Trump isn’t W. He’d prefer to have Granny Nanny than Paul Ryan.
from polifact (whoever the hell they are):
In midterms since 1862, the president's party has averaged losses of about 32 seats in the House and more than two seats in the Senate.
So, You SEE? LLR's are RIGHT! It WAS A HUGE BLUE WAVE REJECTION OF TRUMP!
It was SO BAD, that it was about normal.
Of Course LLR's will say (DID say) oh! But with the Senate map, the repubs Should have gained seats
Guess What LLRs? The Republicans DID gain gains.
Trump was SO BAD (according to LLR's) that things were about normal?
And LLR's are Bragging and Boasting; 'See? See! I TOLD YOU! I TOLD YOU!'
I'm trying to come up with some way to spam Google with searches for "Cuándo votar", just to mess with their heads.
This is a good result for Trump. The Punch and Nancy show that the Democrats are planning will be highly entertaining and set up Trump for re-election.
The Dems would be smart to oust Pelosi and Schumer and get some new leaders. But they are dumb.
PZ, lol
Trump speaks this AM.
The GOP losses are anti-Trump voters. They are either tribalists or they dislike the President’s personality and manner.
The next two years are going to be a war. Trump will have a tough re-election bid.
I am sick of politics though, and that's saying something. Like Jethro being sick of cereal.
If Rosendale pulls it out in MT it will be ALL due to Trump. That bug eyed dork of a candidate had no redeeming qualities of his own, but that he would support the president.
Can't believe it's too close to call.
Meh election. Once again the polls were kinda right but overstated Dem support. Huge win in Senate for the Repubs. It looks like the cushion will be enough to overcome Romney, Murkowski and Snowe. Look for Sessions and Rosenstein to go spend time with their families.
The loss of the House is big news. I really wanted the Dems to get trounced so they would wake up and stop their destructive approach. Now they'll double down on the resistance. Hopefully 2020 will produce the rebuke to save the Dems.
Here in Texas the Hispanic beat the white guy for US Senate. That’s justice, right?
Keith X’s win and John James’ loss were very disappointing.
“Trump is a magic man."
Now you see Claire McCaskill. Now you don’t.
BarrySanders20: Biggest effect nationally is the Ds will begin House investigations of Trump and the Rs will push through a historic number of federal judges, possibly two more SCOTUS nominees, plus treaties that don’t need House involvement.
Yes, these midterms results will provide maximum, er, liveliness for the next 2 years. Dems will be in non-stop hooting-and-screeing mode, meanwhile SCOTUS replacements and treaties proceed apace. Good times ahead.
Amazing how many incumbent senators Trump knocked off.
Good quote:
Incumbent opposition party senators are nearly invulnerable in midterms. Of the 114 who ran in the midterms from 1982 to 2014, only four lost. That's a 96% re-election rate.
Trump knocked off five!
https://donsurber.blogspot.com/2018/11/how-he-trumped-midterms.html?m=1
I would hard to pressed to name any person whose political reputation was been more damaged over the last 3 years than Paul Ryan. I trace it to his nauseating Access Hollywood hissy fit, when he announced he would not campaign for Trump two weeks before the 2016 election. Trump tweeted something like this in response - 'Republicans are losers who don't know to win. I'll teach them how to win.'
I can't spare this man; he fights!
Paul Ryan - not so. Good riddance.
possibly two more SCOTUS nominees
Do we know this? It would seem unless the leftie ones go out T.U. they aren't going anywhere so long as Trump is in charge. I suppose those who lean right might leave...
The new house Gop willl be a lot more MAGA than the old one. There was a lot of passive aggressive anti Trump types that retired.
The big loser was the eGOP types.
The media pollsters with their blue wave also lost.
I believe the Dems are going to go extreme Crazy.
And this will get Trump re-elected.
The felon vote is Fl is going to make it tougher for Trump. I expect he will get through some type of sentencing reform and make more inroads in the Black community.
Access Hollywood tape = worst thing in the world.
10 women who have accused Bill Clinton of unwanted sexual advances all the way up to rape = big YAWN from feminists, the D-hack press and most democrats in general.
Bring on the Pelosi and the Adam Schifty-D.
Trump worked very, very hard for this. The energy he has is incredible. From a historical perspective and considering the forces arrayed against him, he did well. You have to give him credit.
And Professor Althouse was right. America said "maybe".
The GOP won the governorships of two key swing states, Florida and Ohio. That has positive implications for the GOP in 2020.
At the state levels this election is a positive for property values in Wisconsin on the borders of Illinois and Minnesota. "Toilets" Pritzker with his mentor Madigan have already announced plans for massive spending increases in a state almost bankrupt. Minnesota satiate government is now firmly in the hand of a coalition of Soros progressives-Farrakhan devotees and African/Muslim immigrants; this does not fare well for the people who are expected to pay for their schemes.
With these midterm results, there’s something to make republicans happy, and something to make democrats happy. I see it as a win-win. Good game everyone.
"In the flippable districts, he really couldn't help."
With or without Trump, that will be the GOP challenge in the near future. Can we attract enough college-educated women, especially in the burbs? Nikki Haley has her work cut out for her.
Still, with the MSM touting the blue wave and attacking Trump 24/7, with Dem enthusiasm as high as it was, a not-too-bad outcome for now--in Florida especially.
mesquito said...
Here in Texas the Hispanic beat the white guy for US Senate. That’s justice, right?
The Hispanic didn't just beat a white guy, he beat a 1%er Super Rich White Guy. That IS Justice
The GOP has to run against the individual candidate AND the media.
The downside is that the 2020 presidential campaigns began this morning. There will the same noise as there was the day before yesterday, and it will crescendo for the next two years.
Walker hasn't conceded yet media is reporting he lost. Abrams hasn't conceded, media is reporting she has not conceded and hopes to pull it off.
around the interwebz:
"Every Dem Senator in a competitive race who voted against Kavanaugh lost (Donnelly, Heitkamp, McCaskill, and almost certainly Nelson), and the one who voted for Kavanaugh survived (Manchin). Coincidence?"
Dickin'Bimbos@Home said...
around the interwebz:
"Every Dem Senator in a competitive race who voted against Kavanaugh lost (Donnelly, Heitkamp, McCaskill, and almost certainly Nelson), and the one who voted for Kavanaugh survived (Manchin). Coincidence?"
Adding to my ardent support for that nomination, and more like it. It was on the Kavanaugh nomination, that Trump finally got support from Republicans like me.
The House, the NYT, the Media, the Universities v Trump, the Senate, the Supreme Court, Talk Radio
Let's get ready to rumble!
Althouse quotes and paraphrases...
"Those that worked with me in this incredible Midterm Election, embracing certain policies and principles, did very well. Those that did not, say goodbye! Yesterday was such a very Big Win, and all under the pressure of a Nasty and Hostile Media!"
If you lost, it's your fault. If you won, it was thanks to me.
Trump was saying it was the result of the candidate's own choices about who to work with and what to work for.
Kay said...
With these midterm results, there’s something to make republicans happy, and something to make democrats happy. I see it as a win-win. Good game everyone.
Me too!
Maybe we (including the pundits) could spend the day happy? Americans are happy! Americans will vote for the candidates they like! We like kind of a mixed bag of people! Maybe we aren't all racist assholes, but just people trying to get along??? Maybe let's show the positive aspects of America!!! For a day.
Maybe we aren't all racist assholes
Mika Joe said this morning we are all racist assholes.
Trump is a magic man.
Well, Obama is a magic Negro.
Regardless of your feelings about the vote outcomes, you can take consolation from not being represented by the dumbest Senator out of the lot. Unless you are a Rhode Islander. The RI voters returned Sheldon Whitehouse (aka the boofus doofus or Farticus)for six more years. They suffer from the political equivalent of battered woman syndrome.
Last night I was reading about Jim Jones and Jonestown in Rolling Stone, and they said the way you identify a dangerous demigod cult leader is after his declaration that "only I" can fix a problem - something Trump has done. They said this after they'd also let it be known that Jim Jones was a Faith Healer.
Personally, I think claims to magic are a far better indicator of potential trouble, than claims to competence, any day.
"What magic wand do you have?
Pretty sure now that Tester will hold on in Montana. Almost all that is left to count is in counties carried by Tester, and he now has a 1000 vote lead. That should be called shortly.
Since it was the first post, I made the mistake of reading Chuck's comment.
What an asshole.
Trump top 5 out of 26 cases. Chuck "but he's just a lucky orange cheeto, AGAIN"
Brilliant commentary. Look forward to hearing the next explanation of how Trump didn't win.
Sessions is gone, quickly. Great.
I am 3 out of 4 on my predictions (Senate gain +2-3; DeSantis and Scott in FL - if recount holds) but way off on keeping the House by one seat. That's okay. Abrams and BETO losing made up for that.
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