September 20, 2018

"I keep hearing that the Dems are trying to delay the vote on Kavanaugh with a view to defeating his nomination."

"Isn't it clear that delay advantages the Dems only if Kavanaugh is confirmed? The theory that explains every action the accuser and the Dems have taken is: they want the confirmation to occur as close as possible to the midterm elections in order to enrage the Dem base into turning out in huge numbers. If Kavanaugh is defeated close to the midterms, it is the GOP base that will be enraged into turning out. Same result (though likely to a lesser extent) if the Dems induce Kavanaugh to withdraw or delay the vote past the midterms. And Kavanaugh's confirmation will not move the Court so significantly to the right as to outweigh the potential advantage of controlling both houses of Congress. The Dems want Kavanaugh confirmed, under circumstances that will enrage the Dem base as much as possible, and as close to the midterm election date as possible. "

That's PJ in last night's open thread.

I disagree with "And Kavanaugh's confirmation will not move the Court so significantly to the right as to outweigh the potential advantage of controlling both houses of Congress," but there's a lot of interesting analysis about the goals and the timing that I think will get a good conversation started.

113 comments:

rhhardin said...

Everything is driven by fear of soap opera women, by way of what stories they will watch. Those stories will have legs, and others won't.

Stories that enrage them are winners.

rehajm said...

Dem base as much as possible, and as close to the midterm election date as possible

Subtle difference- The base is turning out no matter what. They won't need extra motivation. The question becomes does it motivate anyone else enough to join the base?

Looks to me more like live to fight another day and figure out tomorrow later, give cover to the Ds in the Trump districts, and help DiFi keep her job.

Shouting Thomas said...

Do you rich kids do anything besides play these stupid fakery drama games?

Both Kavanaugh and Ford were spoiled rotten rich kids. Both partied hearty and routinely drank to the point of blacking out. For some reason, you've relieved the woman of any agency in her spoiled brat behavior.

Both the principals in this drama are rotten spoiled rich kids, just like you. Both you and this woman are pretending to victim status.

This whole thing is a disgusting pile of shit. There are no good guys here.

My grandkids are growing up with too much money and too much stuff. I'm beginning to wonder what I can do to prevent them frrom entering this world of stupid fakery and drama queen lying you inhabit.

BarrySanders20 said...

That’s too much Kabuki. The simpler explanation is also likelier the real motivation. They don’t want Judge K and the best way to stop him is to delay the vote. I don’t see how his defeat riles up the R base enough to make a difference.

exhelodrvr1 said...

I don't believe the Dems are thinking that strategically. Based on the last two years, it appears that they will reflexively oppose whatever Trump wants, even when his desires align with what Dem desires were on Nov 7, 2016. That is what is driving most of the opposition to Kavanaugh.

tim maguire said...

Sounds plausible. Somewhat undermined by how crass and transparently corrupt the Democratic tactics are. It will likely succeed in enraging that part of the base that is already enraged, but what about the persuadable middle? What do people without strong feelings one way or the other think about the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings?

Because those are the people who really decide elections. Firing up the base is the bare minimum. You can't win without them. But you can't win with them either if you alienate the middle just to cater to them.

Ken B said...

It is often noted that the British have an “unwritten constitution.” There are norms and precedents whose observance keeps the system running. America too, you will find, has an unwritten constitution. The written one will do you little good if the unwritten is abandoned.

rehajm said...

Everything is driven by fear of soap opera women

In this world of yours are there women who aren't soap opera women? You seem fond of the aphorism- why not just use 'women'? Does the derogatory please you?

Shouting Thomas said...

We've been had. This is a fight between two super rich, spoiled, decadent kids who partied and behaved like assholes in precisely the manner you'd expect.

Observing this horseshit theater of lies on both sides is confirming me in my belief that I was actually lucky to have grown up on the wrong side of the tracks in a family that struggled to get by.

rhhardin said...

The media are better off if Kavanaugh gets confirmed, but it has to be made as enraging as possible.

Looking ahead though, the SCOTUS stories will be less drama-playable if the court goes more conservative. I don't know if the media plan that far in the future.

A constitutional government would be really boring. It's all system talk.

rhhardin said...

In this world of yours are there women who aren't soap opera women? You seem fond of the aphorism- why not just use 'women'? Does the derogatory please you?

40% of women are soap opera women, not even a majority. But it's enough to support the news business, and nothing else is. They sell their eyeballs to advertisers and it pays the bills.

Soap opera though is always a temptation to women so they slip into it from time to time. This ought to be interesting to their husbands but not to the world.

rhhardin said...

The importance of soap opera women is that their tastes edit every national debate.

rehajm said...

The longer we're talking about it the more time we give for K to say something stupid, for Republicans to say something stupid, the longer we're not talking about the great economy or anything that works against the Ds.

gspencer said...

Using the courts as supra-legislatures is the source. The left won't stop that approach; it's only angry now because the non-left is able to blunt the tactic.

rhhardin said...

That is to say, don't look at what Democrats are planning, as if they're in charge. It's the media business model that's in charge, and that involves soap opera women.

Laslo Spatula said...

I like the theory, but it requires believing that there is actually a plan that they are following; I question whether those involved are capable of being that competent and coordinated.

I'm leaning to basic procrastination. They have no idea how this may really play out amongst the Venn diagram of the public, so they keep pushing the time for choosing a resolution out further, day by day: it is easier to live in the current chaos than to willingly move into an unknown where consequences become concrete.

This is in line with the 24/7 onslaught of Trump media chaos: spaghetti is endlessly thrown at the wall to see what might finally stick, and each event whimpers away to background noise when the desired effect is not accomplished.

Because this is the only thing that it akin to a plan: the constant background noise of chaos, in the hopes that people will finally tire of the maddening hum and want change just to stop their ears from ringing: acute political tinnitus.

I am Laslo.

Tommy Duncan said...

The GOP needs to make Diane Feinstein the focus of their attention. Feinstein sat on this "incredibly important" accusation during the nomination hearings. Why would she sit on something so important?

Her staff has refused to send Grassley’s staff an interacted copy of Ford’s letter. How do you respond to an accusation you are not allowed to read? She has repeatedly acted in bad faith. She should be called on the carpet.

The Democrats are playing a dangerous game with male voters, as the comments on Althouse demonstrate.

Amadeus 48 said...

I'm already bored with this topic. The way to take Vienna is to take Vienna. GOP: confirm Kavanaugh and turn out the vote in November in retribution for this nonsense the Dems have perpetrated.

sinz52 said...

The Dems are taking a gamble that they can make electoral gains in the Senate as well as the House.

IOW, this is Garland redux: Keep the seat open until the opposition party can win big in a future election.

Even if Kavanaugh's nomination is withdrawn, the Dems will continue to oppose any other nominee Trump sends up. I'm sure they're hard at work digging up dirt on every name on the Federalist Society's list.

Rob said...

Nah, if the Democrats succeed in knocking off Kananaugh, it will empower their base and bring otherwise disspirited voters to the polls, to Resist!

Did you notice, btw, the name of the congresswoman to whom the accuser first sent her letter?

Eshoo.

Gesundheit.

tim maguire said...

rehajm said...In this world of yours are there women who aren't soap opera women? You seem fond of the aphorism- why not just use 'women'? Does the derogatory please you?

If I'm reading him right, "women" isn't the group he's reaching for. The electorate is divided into groups depending on how they lean left, right, or middle. The left and the right are almost perfectly balanced in terms of voting activity. So elections are decided by the middle--people who don't much care for politics and don't pay much attention, but for some reason vote anyway.

And close elections are decided by late-breakers, who are consistently the least informed, most persuadable through emotional manipulation. In rhhardin's terminology, soap-opera moms.

Rick said...

The left's faux-alarm over the Georgetown Prep drinking and a stripper was revealing, the pretense these were in any way unusual among teenage boys. Then the girls' school yearbook came out referencing...drinking and a stripper. Crickets from the same people.

The left just can't be reasonable about anything.

David Begley said...

Hints that Kavanaugh has solid proof that this is a case of mistaken identity.

In any event, who could predict the votes of Collins, Murkowski and Flake?

I know one thing for sure, the MSM shows itself to be total partisan hacks.

Bay Area Guy said...

Overthinking it.

As Laslo said, there is no grand plan by the Dems. There is, however, one objective - defeat Kavanaugh by any means necessary.

Ideally, the Dems would love to delay the Kavanaugh vote until after midterms, then win the Senate, then never vote on Kavanaugh and keep the seat open.

Dr. Blasey Ford is a clueless tool to help the Dems try to do this. But they're still mostly winging it. Grassley and McConnell have to stay firm - Flake, Corker, Collins and Murkowski have to keep their wits. It's all about power, Baby! And Dems are thrashing about trying to hold onto it.

Krumhorn said...

I subscribe entirely to Laslo’s view. There is no other plan than to RESIST!. Resist at any cost.

If there is any other thought, there is a vague notion of battlefield prep. Make the politics so awful...so toxic...that the next prospective judge nominee will never consider a position on the list. The next opponent in a race will stay home and play ball with the kids in the backyard instead.

It’s scorched Earth. Burn the bitch down!

- Krumhorn

Matt Sablan said...

What happens if some random person comes forward and says I know it wasn't Kavanaugh because in the summer of maybe 82 I went to a party with Ford and did this?

Lyssa said...

I don’t agree with that at all. I think that the Dems are confident that if they delay until the midterm, they will gain enough control to delay through the end of Trump’s presidency. If they can get away with it, they will happily keep the seat open until there’s a Dem in the White House.

Lloyd W. Robertson said...

Would Dems agree to a deal in which Kavanaugh is dropped, and Amy Barrett (very little paper trail) is confirmed quickly? One funny thing is that she is probably at least as inclined as Kavanaugh to see Roe and Casey as horseshit that the Court may be stuck with. If Dems went for her, it might indicate that they are actually serious about preventing those yucky men from holding positions of responsibility, setting aside things like ideology.

David Begley said...

Suppose Trump is defeated in 2020. Imagine the false accusations that could be made on that SCOTUS nominee? She cheated on her Torts exam. Wrongfully returned something to LL Bean.

I could see so many that the system is bogged down.

This is how the Left destroys America.

David Begley said...

Matthew S.

That’s one rumor. The guy went to the Landon School.

Wouldn’t that be great?

Phil 314 said...

Harken back to the thread of classic tv shows and character development. There’s no “character development” in this Dem playbook. It’s just the same stock characters and the same premise. Like M*A*S*H, it jumped the shark long before it was cancelled.

JAORE said...

"The Democrats are playing a dangerous game with male voters,"

And mothers that are wise enough to see that on campus, at work and in life in general their sons are potential victims of "the woman must be believed".*

*It's horrifying enough to have heard Hillary say that nonsense, or Senator Menendez, but I have no doubt that Ted Kennedy would chime in if he were still alive.

robother said...

Giving Red State Dems cover to vote no and not suffer defeat factors in too. Ann's point of disagreement with PJ (she thinks Kavanaugh will move SCOTUS significantly right) is correct, now for sure because of the scarring effect of the Democrat's stunt. Just as Anita Hill made Thomas a pariah on the law school/legal conference circuit, which sealed him in the path of hard line textual natural rights conservatism, this process will likely make Kavanaugh immune to "evolving" as a Kennedy-style centrist.

Matt Sablan said...

It is clear to me the Democrats had no plan. They didn't expect the FBI to pass on the investigation and banked on the accusation being enough.

Matt Sablan said...

That's not fair. They had tactics. Leak the redacted memo to the FBI, but give Farrow names and see if he could find anything.

Demand a hearing. Say a hearing is abuse. They had tsctics but no overarching strategy.

traditionalguy said...

The good old days: Rich white Preppies enjoying their favorite indoor sport of screwing other drunk house party attendees. That was the 70s and 80s after birth control and before HIV.

Shouting Thomas said...

There are no political issues here. This is all about morality. Kids with too much money and too much time on their hands.

Ford was out drinking to the point of passing out every night and screwing a different guy every night... by her own admission.

Why, Althouse, have you relieved her of all moral responsibility for her reckless behavior?

Kavanaugh is probably a rich, rotten asshole. So is Ford.

jwl said...

The rumour fist started to leak last Thursday and Friday I believe - I think Dems expected to generate enough pressure on Kavanaugh over the weekend he would withdraw from nomination on Monday. That didn't happen, Repubs called their bluff and said accuser should testify, and now Dems have spent the week not knowing what to next.

Krumhorn said...

One consideration that the rabid lefties have failed to grasp is the impact on Kavanaugh’s rulings on the court when he is confirmed. This is a fellow who clerked for and greatly admires Kennedy. It isn’t out of the realm of possibility that he was recommended by Kennedy when he spoke with Trump before resigning.

If there was ever a shred of potential that Kavanaugh would take up that maddening middle posture as the swing vote, that shred has surely been dissolved in the boiling acid of his confirmation process. In his shoes, I would relish each opportunity in the years ahead to faintly smile as I read my opinions from the bench as if Scalia himself had written them.

- Krumhorn

Crazy Jane said...

If the president played 3-D chess -- I know, but bear with me here -- he would withdraw Kavanaugh's nomination with "great regret and sorrow" about the state of our country, and also a promise to renominate him next time an opening comes around.

Meantime BOTH characters in the drama would be investigated all the way back to their childhood immunization records. Kavanaugh would survive, and his accuser, who may not have stayed on the sidewalk for every step of the last 50 years, would be uncomfortable. Next time around, potential accusers might reflect first on their Confucius: (Don't complain about the snow on your neighbor's roof when your own doorstep is unclean. )

This would send angry centrists (not just Trump fans) to the polls in droves in November. No blue wave.

Then the President could nominate Amy Barrett, whom Kavanaugh's antagonists loathe even more.

Here's a fun story from New Jersey's cranky (and no doubt lonely) conservative columnist about Cory Booker's "Kavanaugh moment." https://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2018/09/cory_bookers_lost_youth_it_looks_like_spartacus_ha.html

Shouting Thomas said...

And, in answer to your response, Althouse.

UM is and was the top academic school in the Big Ten and a top ten school nationally.

Tuition was cheap in the era before student loans. My first year at UI in 1968, tuition was $250. I paid it by working part time during the school year and full time during the summer and breaks.

gg6 said...

Frankly, I think this all presumes way too much 'Plan' specificity in Democrat behavior - they simply saw this last minute accusation as a Win-Win in ANY event. If they do have any single preferred endgame - which I doubt - it's to forestall any vote on Kavanaugh until January when they can simply kill it altogether. Meanwhile their specific game tactics have been a chaos of sloppiness and incoherence right from the beginning. Not to mention, the Republicans are beginning to show more spine then the Dems expected. Te biggest single loser here may well turn out to be Feinstein. Bravo that, she's earned as much so far.

Skookum John said...

And mothers that are wise enough to see that on campus, at work and in life in general their sons are potential victims of "the woman must be believed".

That’s what happened to my wife. She believed Anita Hill, back in her single days. She doesn’t believe Christine Ford. In the interim she had a son whom she cherishes more than life itself. He had a scary experience in college with a crazy alcoholic ex-girlfriend making up wild accusations, and my wife now hates feminists who say arrant horseshit like “Women never lie about rape.”

Chris of Rights said...

I disagree. I think that the longer this drags out, the more it helps the GOP, regardless of whether Judge K is confirmed or not. It is clear to anyone paying attention that the Democrats are doing everything possible to stall, stall, stall. This whole thing has turned into a circus.

And the longer it continues, the more apparent that will be, even to those not paying attention. In the end, that can only damage the Democrats and only be beneficial to the GOP.

If I were a GOPer involved in a tight race, I would be praying that somehow the Democrats can drag this out until the last week in October.

Shouting Thomas said...

She doesn’t believe Christine Ford.

Both Ford and Kavanaugh were likely too drunk to know what, if anything, happened.

For some reason, only the man is responsible.

iowan2 said...

I'm with Barry Sanders at 6:42.

The Dems are delaying hoping the more lies can come out and force Kananaugh will withdraw. or President Trump pull the nomination. Same play book, it hasn't worked since President Trump came down the escalator at Trump Tower in 2015. But, but this time, this time, President Trump is going to respond correctly to the the political stimulus the way any other politician does...this time is going to be different

Skookum John said...

The good old days: Rich white Preppies enjoying their favorite indoor sport of screwing other drunk house party attendees. That was the 70s and 80s after birth control and before HIV.

You and Shouting Thomas seem to be laboring under the misapprehension that such behavior was confined to rich white preppies. I assure you it was not.

FIDO said...

I disagree with "And Kavanaugh's confirmation will not move the Court so significantly to the right


We know. That is why your tone in all of this has had all the power and outrage that Willy Wonka (Gene Wilder version) had when he says 'don't, stop, come back'.


A refresher. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9ZD3_ppcPE

Shouting Thomas said...

@Skookum

I agree, but in my youth my partying and screwing were limited by the reality that I had to work at a job, so my time and my money were limited.

These white preppies had no such limitations.

Eleanor said...

"Soap Opera Women" need to have a lifestyle that allows them to be at home during the afternoon when they're on. Ten years ago there were nine soaps on each day. Today there are only four. That would suggest the percentage of women who qualify as "soap opera women" has greatly decreased, which would make them a disappearing force in the political arena. It might be time to find another moniker to use to disparage women.

gg6 said...

I wonder if these brilliant multi-option Dems we're imagining here have ever considered yet another possible outcome of all this - that Kavanaugh is eventually confirmed and takes a seat at his new job.....and he does so as a human jurist personally seared and scarred by the utter hypocrisy and evil of Liberal and Female demagoguery? That would certainly sound count as due Justice in my book.

Hagar said...

If the Democrats take back the Senate in November, no more federal judges will be confirmed until they also regain the White House.

Skookum John said...

The biggest single loser here may well turn out to be Feinstein. Bravo that, she's earned as much so far.

If the rumors are correct, this whole circus will soon come to a dramatic deus ex machina denouement that unequivocally exonerates Kavanaugh. That could well be the end of any Blue Wave in November. Imagine what bad odor Feinstein will be in with both the Left and the Right, if that comes to pass.

rhhardin said...

Ten years ago there were nine soaps on each day. Today there are only four.

They're replaced by soap opera news. That's the point.

It makes the women feel important, too. Look, I'm watching serious stuff.

Gahrie said...

I disagree with "And Kavanaugh's confirmation will not move the Court so significantly to the right as to outweigh the potential advantage of controlling both houses of Congress,

But you're still pretending you don't oppose Kavanagh and back the Democrats on this one aren't you?

Belle17 said...

The entire spectacle is complete BS. It's refreshing to see that Grassley, et.al. are actually showing some balls and calling the bluff of the Dems.

Did this woman have something happen to her 35+ years ago? Perhaps. If something DID happen, could it have been BK? Perhaps. But there is no way to know what the truth is, and BK has come out with a very firm denial that he ever did anything like this. He's declared it under oath. He's not backing down. And good for him.

This whole mantra that every woman should just be blindly believed is incredibly dangerous. Where does a man go to get his reputation back when such an allegation is made, with no evidence, no facts, no dates/times, etc? These are real people with real lives, and families and friends and real damage is being done with zero regard for truth or facts.

Women shouldn't be assaulted, but if and when they are, the only possibility they have for recourse is to REPORT it in a timely manner, not wait half a lifetime and then come forward with hazy "facts" and then demand that everyone immediately burn the man at the stake. That is total bullshit, and Grassley is 100% right to tell the accuser to put up or shut up. Feinstein should be run out of town on a rail.

I held my nose and voted for Trump, but I can tell you that I am getting to the point of enthusiastically voting for him in 2020 just because of this "establishment" crap.

Ralph L said...

they will happily keep the seat open until there’s a Dem in the White House.

Historians will call it "unpacking the Court."

Howard said...

Oh goody... we happy now

Skookum John said...

I think this is the Rolling Stone fraternity rape hoax all over again. Take a plain girl from a struggling family with unresolved issues about being overlooked by the rich athletic in-crowd in high school, steep her in college-campus feminist psychobabble for thirty years, and give her the chance to be the Mary Sue heroine in an inspiring story of standing up to the patriarchy when everything is on the line. Means, motive, and opportunity.

Bill Crawford said...

The progressives may have several goals in the delay.

But I think one reason they are delaying is that they think Ms Ford making her accusation would open the floodgates of other women coming forward with better substantiated accusations because, you know, all men are rapists.

Maybe they are rare, but to progressives men of integrity are entirely mythological.

MayBee said...

When Casey Anthony was under investigation, she had told everyone for years she had a job at Universal Studios. So the police asked her to take them to her office. She did. She lead them around the Universal Studio Offices, going into one place and then the next, I suppose hoping something would open up to allow her to carry on her ruse for just a little longer.
That's what the Dems are doing right now.

Sebastian said...

"I disagree with "And Kavanaugh's confirmation will not move the Court so significantly to the right as to outweigh the potential advantage of controlling both houses of Congress,

But you're still pretending you don't oppose Kavanagh and back the Democrats on this one aren't you?"

The is the thing. The Dems always assumed that they could manipulate not just the soap opera women but the Althouses of the world: that women (and progs, of course) who obsess over "women's rights" and "women's bodies" would stick with them no matter what.

No matter what has come to pass, and the Dems have yet to be proven wrong. Sure, they may lose on Kavanaugh, for now, but they are aiming for domination. They have degraded the process, they have shown they will stop any GOPer if they can, they will make any future GOP candidate shudder, they treat law as as politics only, and they have shown their utter contempt for any basic norms of fairness. They are not wrong: their enablers let them get away with it.

Shouting Thomas said...

Take a plain girl from a struggling family...

She may have been plain, but her prep school now costs $40,000 a year.

The family struggle seems to have been the result of profligate over spending.

MayBee said...

Hahhahahha, Ralph!

MayBee said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Rory said...

Eleanor said: "Ten years ago there were nine soaps on each day. Today there are only four."

But every primetime genre has adopted the serial format.

The goals are to raise hell and get away with it, and to stop others from doing what they want. It's more genetics than politics.

Rick said...

Just as Anita Hill made Thomas a pariah on the law school/legal conference circuit, which sealed him in the path of hard line textual natural rights conservatism, this process will likely make Kavanaugh immune to "evolving" as a Kennedy-style centrist.

The court's movement is measured from the prior swing vote to the new swing vote, it is not necessarily between Kennedy and his replacement. Since the difference is between Kennedy and Roberts rather than Kennedy and Kavanaugh the non-evolution does not impact this specific question. It's certainly welcome though as Thomas has turned out well.

There is a secondary impact relating to longevity but I agree with PJ that this primary impact is not nearly as large as people think. Replacing a left vote with a right vote is vastly more meaningful as it would move the swing vote from Roberts (already proven susceptible to left wing pressure tactics) to the next Justice right, maybe Gorsuch? So in that sense Senate control is more important than this nomination.

Francisco D said...

"That's what the Dems are doing right now."

MayBee nailed it.

They are improvising in hopes that something works. It is sort of like a fast break in basketball.

Regardless of what happens, be prepared for yearly sympathetic stories about how Christine Blasey Ford is a heroine who suffered for her principles, like Anita Hill.

dbp said...

The ideal outcome for Democrats is to delay the vote on Kavanaugh until after the election and then vote him down right afterwards.

There are a bunch of red state Democratic Senators up for re-election. I am pretty sure, none of them wants to vote yes on a Trump nomination but they also don't want to swing a percent or two on a no vote.

Claire McCaskill is either unusually honest for a Senator, or stupid, in that she has already announced that she will vote no.

M Jordan said...

First, I thought the Dem based was already at 11 on enthusiasm to vote out R’s. That’s the narrative. Second, have they thought about the fact that their tactics might enrage Republican voters as well? Because if I’m any indication (and I am), I’m ready to vote ten times.

This is a very risky strategy Dems are pursuing. That tells me one thing: they aren’t confident in the Blue Wave narrative,

Ralph L said...

Claire McCaskill is either unusually honest for a Senator, or stupid, in that she has already announced that she will vote no.

She gets her decision out early so people will forget by November. She was going to vote no anyway, now it's lost in the noise.

Unknown said...

"Kavanaugh is probably a rich, rotten asshole. So is Ford."

I have no personal experience with Ford, but I have personally argued an appeal before Kavanaugh and seen some of my colleagues do so as well. He is uniformly polite to both sides appearing before him. As an appellate lawyer, I have argued about 75 appeals in state and federal courts. I can assure you: not all judges are like him at oral argument. And as for what he's like off the bench, the hearing produced a lot of evidence he's a nice guy, and, as far as I know, no evidence he's an asshole.

stlcdr said...

It's not so much a 'plan' as a basic SOP for democrats, especially in the - now stupid - #metoo era. Throw out any sexual harassment incident - real or not - and see what sticks. Even if nothing comes of it, it still benefits the democrats. Worst case scenario (for dems) is you are back to where you started.

There are simply too many people on the left who are so blind by hatred that they really don't care about this sort of thing being true - it's just a weapon to bash those on the right.

Crazy Jane said...

Bill Crawford said;

"But I think one reason they are delaying is that they think Ms Ford making her accusation would open the floodgates of other women coming forward with better substantiated accusations because, you know, all men are rapists."

Bingo, FTW. What we have learned from Bill Clinton, Harvey Weinstein, Matt Lauer, etc., is that horndogs are not single offenders. They repeat their behavior for again and again.

The failure of any other accusers to come forward here is telling in itself.

Matt Sablan said...

Well, at least one person felt empowered to come forward... only she didn't really know anything, and is sorry for sounding like she did -- and she would very much like everyone to stop talking to her about what she said.

Ray - SoCal said...

Dems are in an echo chamber.

The Dems historically have not suffered for slinging dirt. Lots of Alinsky tactics being used here.

Until Trump came along, the Dems had a very successful record of destroying opponents with accusations of sexual harassment.

Great point about the Dems risk with male voters.

Interesting how nice Trump is playing with this nomination.

Dems see this as a great way to motivate their base. War on women, older white guys bad, abortion, sexism, me too, etc.

wildswan said...

Amadeus 48 said...
I'm already bored with this topic. The way to take Vienna is to take Vienna. GOP: confirm Kavanaugh and turn out the vote in November in retribution for this nonsense the Dems have perpetrated.

Right. And we don't have to take Dem noise as indicating the state of the country. It indicates the state of a shrinking group losing its grip on power. The country will not fall apart just because the Wapo or the NYT or the DNC does. And I'll tell you something else. It does not matter if the Catholic Church ceases to be an asset to the Democratic party, i.e. "loses its moral influence." Years ago everyone who is really a Catholic came to terms with the the Lavender mafia and the socialist lay people in chanceries and gathered around a "real priest" and went on, reading and abiding by the Catechism of the Catholic Church which was produced to meet the situation created by liberal distortionists. Don't think twice, it's all right.

Darrell said...

What we learned is that the Left is crazy. Any woman from that area can come forward and say she is a witness or victim. The MSM won't investigate and if they do a little digging, they'll find she lived there at the right time.

wildswan said...

Just in case this hasn't been posted:
https://cultofthe1st.blogspot.com/2018/09/why-christine-blasey-fords-high-school_19.html

Rick said...

Well, at least one person felt empowered to come forward... only she didn't really know anything, and is sorry for sounding like she did -- and she would very much like everyone to stop talking to her about what she said.

It's worse than not knowing anything, her story contradicted Ford's accusation. Ford claimed she told no one until decades later and her "supporter" claimed everyone at the girls' school knew about it. Once she realized her story caused a problem rather than helping she tried to erase it. The event shows why supporting testimony is suspect in such a politicized environment.

John Lynch said...

Huh? Dumb analysis. You draw things out because the chance of something good happening outweighs the certainty of a bad thing (Kavanaugh nominated to the Court.)

There is SOME chance the Senate flips to Dem control. Why not draw things out just in case?

There's also the possibility one GOP senator will oppose the nomination, and in a post-election 50-50 Senate the nomination fails.

Unless the Dems pay some kind of price for the delay, there is no reason not to fight to the end.

Michael K said...

He had a scary experience in college with a crazy alcoholic ex-girlfriend making up wild accusations, and my wife now hates feminists who say arrant horseshit like “Women never lie about rape.”

This is why I would like my son to encourage his son to join the Marine Corps out of high school and grow up before college. I have seen kids doing this the past seven years as I examine recruits. I think college is too risky for 18 year old males right now.

PJ said...

@Laslo: I agree I may be giving the national Dems too much credit for strategic thinking. My analysis is based on asking whether there would be any strategy consistent with all the known moves the Dems have made, and I believe the explanation that it is all about the midterms (and especially the Senate) works.

@Matthew: I agree that there is a distinction to be made between tactics and strategy, and I think it's likely that people who don't see a strategy are overestimating relative value of this Supreme Court seat to congressional Dems. I was in that situation myself because I'm a lawyer so I think nothing is a bigger deal than a Supreme Court seat. But once it occurred to me that it might be all about the midterms, I realized I was probably out of the political mainstream in that regard.

@Rick: My statement about the Court not moving so significantly to the right was based on exactly your reasoning. The move is Kennedy-as-swing-vote to Roberts-as-swing-vote, and I believe Roberts (who was already the swing vote on Obamacare, lest we forget) is not that big a move. This is not anywhere near Kavanaugh replacing Ginsburg.

Bruce Hayden said...

"But I think one reason they are delaying is that they think Ms Ford making her accusation would open the floodgates of other women coming forward with better substantiated accusations because, you know, all men are rapists."

They are trolling like crazy right now for other aggrieved women. The problem, as I see it though, is that very likely they are going to find some wannabes, and, instead of furthering their narrative, they are going to be held to account for it.

And, yes, women do make sexual harassment claims without merit for that reason - it happened to me. Almost 20 years ago, my female boss called me into her office to tell me that two women, whom she refused to identify, had lodged sexual harassment claims against me for looking at their chests. Apparently, this is something that women just know. Asked my secretary to track it down. Turns out, it was led by another of the legal secretaries, who used talking with attorneys as an excuse not to work. Since my secretary had to help pick up the slack, I refused to play her game, and wouldn’t make eye contact. This was her revenge. Fine. But I rarely interacted with the other woman though, so her complaint made little sense, until my secretary pointed out that the first one was the queen bee, and the second a wannabe. (With that information, I was able to go back to my boss, threaten a counterclaim for sexual harassment, with the other legal secretaries as my very willing witnesses. No surprise - it was dropped).

The problem is that women do lie about sex. Indeed, I would suggest that women, being the sneakier sex, probably lie about sex more often than men do (also, their penalty for being caught in extramarital sex is higher, as is their penalty for lacking chastity when seeking marriage partners). The reality, very likely, is that a large percentage of #MeToo women very probably willingly traded sex for advancement. And there are probably even some #MeToo women who are jumping in, making charges, who have no real complaints, but like the limelight of being a claimed #MeToo “survivor”.

PJ said...

Perhaps I should also elaborate on "the potential advantage of controlling both houses of Congress." These include: (1) shutting down Congressional investigations of Obama-era misconduct, including document demands; (2) defeating Trump's judicial nominations to all federal courts; and (3) advancing a potential impeachment gambit.

hombre said...

If Republicans who have the numbers do not confirm Kavanaugh, what good are they? They spend like Democrats. Obamacare is still in place. They only occasionally support the President and more often impede the draining of the swamp.

If Kavanaugh is not confirmed, Trump supporters will blame Republicans, not Democrats. Sarah Hoyt has said, “lefties are equal parts idiots and evil people.” She is correct. We expect they will behave accordingly.

If Kavanaugh is confirmed, I will contribute to and vote for Republicans. If not, I won’t. I doubt I am unique among Trumpers.

John Lynch said...

Apologies for calling analysis by PJ "dumb."

PJ said...

@John: I didn't take it personally, but thank you.

Greg P said...

PJ is wrong

The Democrats desperately want the vote to be after the midterm elections

Their base is already fired up.

What they don't want is for the 5-6 Red State Democrats to have to vote on Kavanaugh.

If they vote Yes, the base is enraged.

If they vote No, they're "just another Democrat", in States where the voters might accept an independent Democrat, but won't accept a lockstep one.

This poll from the Huffington Post is not good news for those Senators, because the "Independent" voters that they desperately need are pro-Kavanaugh:

https://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/athena/files/2018/09/19/5ba234fde4b046313fc11590.pdf


Also, Senate GOP showing backbone and pushing Kavanaugh through over serious character assassination, is the kind of thing to get depressed GOP voters (pissed about the failure of ObamaCare repeal, for example), to get out and vote.

So no, the last thing the Democrats want in Kavanaugh confirmed shortly before the midterm elections.

Esp. since the Democrat Senators want to be out there campaigning, not stuck in DC, during the last, critical, month

Matt Sablan said...

The Huff Post poll I just saw on Instapundit with 19% Independents believing, 25% not believing, and 35% having not heard enough (20% don't know) is... not promising for a Delay and Don't Testify tactic.

I wonder how 53% of Democrats consider it a credible accusation though. Really: What makes it credible? All the alleged witnesses present state it never happened; the accusers story has changed/been recorded improperly; she can't give a date other than "maybe the summer of 82"; the location is "some place in Montgomery county." The only person who came forward to corroborate her story had to walk it back and say, "Oops, sorry, I actually can't corroborate it."

Where is the credibility? I'm fine with the people in the Don't Know or Want to Hear More category -- those are at least defensible positions. The Not Credible, I can also get (I'm somewhere between that and Want to Hear More). But... explain to me the Credible position.

Michael K said...

PJ is wrong

The Democrats desperately want the vote to be after the midterm elections

Their base is already fired up.


I agree. This is all about delay until AFTER the election.

Yancey Ward said...

I think it a mistake to overanalyze what happened here. Feinstein sat on the accusation probably because Democrat investigators were trying to substantiate it before and during the hearings, but failed because, well, it was alleged to have happened 36 years ago. At that point, what else could she, Feinstein, do? Just release it and hope Kavanaugh and the Republicans chicken out sounds like a good plan unless you have 20/20 foresight. It wasn't easy to predict the Republicans would call the bluff- I certainly wouldn't have predicted it.

Greg P said...

JAORE said...
"The Democrats are playing a dangerous game with male voters,"

And mothers that are wise enough to see that on campus, at work and in life in general their sons are potential victims of "the woman must be believed".*

Yep. As I pointed on out Twitter, briefly, before my account got suspended for the "suspicious activity" of disagreeing with Democrats, Suburban women with sons, and husbands, aren't (as a class) going to be fans of "any man can have his life destroyed at any time, on no evidence at all".

Thank you, Rolling Stone and "Jackie"

https://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/athena/files/2018/09/19/5ba234fde4b046313fc11590.pdf

9. Credible accusation
Do you think that the allegation of sexual assault against Brett Kavanaugh generally is or is not credible?
Registered voters: Credible: 31%, Not credible: 37%
Independents: Credible: 19%, Not credible: 25%
Republicans: Credible: 4%, Not credible: 60%:
Democrats: Credible: 53%, Not credible: 8%:

Yes, that's right, only 53% of Democrats think the accusations are credible


robother said...
Giving Red State Dems cover to vote no and not suffer defeat factors in too. Ann's point of disagreement with PJ (she thinks Kavanaugh will move SCOTUS significantly right) is correct, now for sure because of the scarring effect of the Democrat's stunt. Just as Anita Hill made Thomas a pariah on the law school/legal conference circuit, which sealed him in the path of hard line textual natural rights conservatism, this process will likely make Kavanaugh immune to "evolving" as a Kennedy-style centrist.

1: The only "cover" that will work for Red State Dems is to have the vote after the election.
Which is why they're trying to delay

2: We're in solid agreement: I too believe that having been this viciously attacked by the Left, Kavanaugh is going to have no interest in trying to get along with them.

Ever

Just like Thomas

Matt Sablan said...

"At that point, what else could she, Feinstein, do?"

-- I think if someone on Feinstein's staff hadn't leaked that she had a potential silver bullet, she'd have done nothing. It is too big of a risk to fail on, but someone on her staff betrayed her, so she couldn't NOT show the goods to other Democrats. At which point, she knew it would be out of her hands. Hence giving it to Ronan Farrow (most likely unredacted so he could reach witnesses) and to the FBI (redacted specifically so they could not.)

Achilles said...

This is all about keeping Manchin and Baldwin and Heidtkamp and others from having to vote.

It is the only thing they care about.

McCaskill is down double digits in the polls and has no chance.

The Democrats are fighting for 41.

Yancey Ward said...

Yes, it is possible that Feinstein's hand was forced by a member of her staff, but as I read the story, Feinstein got the letter from another Democrat in the House, not from Ford herself. If that is true, I think quite likely the letter was known to all the Democrats on the judiciary committee, and they were, as a group, holding it back in an attempt to substantiate it. When they couldn't, it does make sense in a certain way to wait until after the hearings conclude to leak it to the press. I just now think that the Republicans calling the bluff wasn't foreseen- that is what surprised everyone, it appears.

Krumhorn said...

Sarah Hoyt has said, “lefties are equal parts idiots and evil people.”

That’s a charitable assessment. I’m pretty sure the lefties are mostly evil. The horrible things they do and say cannot be chalked up to mere idiocy. And while they cloak their agenda in the smug and sneering wrap of social justice and superior virtue, the end result will be a totalitarian state in which our every action is dictated by libruls.

The lefties routinely demonstrate that they are nasty little shits.

- Krumhorn

Greg P said...

PJ said...

@Rick: My statement about the Court not moving so significantly to the right was based on exactly your reasoning. The move is Kennedy-as-swing-vote to Roberts-as-swing-vote, and I believe Roberts (who was already the swing vote on Obamacare, lest we forget) is not that big a move. This is not anywhere near Kavanaugh replacing Ginsburg.


Kavanaugh replacing Kennedy is going to be huge for the "forcing Christians to participate in gay marriages" front. Kennedy wasn't willing to go either way (and the other 4 weren't willing to force him).

Roberts and Kavanaugh, OTOH, will rule that Arlene's Flowers doesn't have to do SSMs.

Kavanaugh replacing Kennedy won't lead to a reversal on Roe / Casey, because Roberts is too much of a wuss.

But it will mean that most State limitations will be approved. IIRC, Texas has a case wending its way with requirements about admitting privileges, etc. Roberts won't vote to flip Casey, but he will vote to allow Texas their reasonable limitations.

Frankly, replacing Ginsburg (instead of Kennedy) with Kavanaugh would not have accomplished a lot more than what we have.

If if the GOP holds the Senate (I expect them to net several seats) and RGB or Breyer goes, THAT would be the serious flip.

Alito as the "swing Justice", anchored to the Right by Gorsuch, Amy Barrett, Kavanaugh, and Thomas, now that would be a good and honest Supreme Court.

And the resulting heart attacks from aggravation, among the other 3 Lefties, could quickly lead to a Supreme Court that actually followed the written Constitution, the law, and democracy, with no consideration for the "Justices" feelings.

Wouldn't that be wonderful!

Night Owl said...

The GOP needs to make Diane Feinstein the focus of their attention. Feinstein sat on this "incredibly important" accusation during the nomination hearings. Why would she sit on something so important?

Indeed. If the accusation against Kavanaugh had been presented at the beginning of the confirmation process, and not sprung at the last minute, the accuser would have more credibility. But the way it played out just stinks of shitty Dem dirty tricks. Something may have happened to that woman, but even the senile Feinstein slipped up and admitted she doesn't know if everything alleged is true; and given the time that has passed we'll never be able to know what is true.

The Democrats are playing a dangerous game with male voters, as the comments on Althouse demonstrate.

Agreed. Democrat women smear a man with an unprovable accusation in the hopes of motivating the hate-driven among the Dem base to get out and vote. Pretty damn low. But this could be yet another tactic that back fires on the Dems since they are indeed alienating men, and women who love men, to just #Walkaway.

Night Owl said...

I left out a word: Should be "... motivating women who love men..."

Night Owl said...

The #Metoo "reckoning" goes too far when it declares that all women are to be believed even when there is no supporting evidence and the alleged events took place over 30 years ago. The idea that all accused men are guilty until proven innocent is perverse and unconstitutional, and it's an attitude that makes me embarrassed to be a woman. No man is safe from a false accusation in this age of #Metoo.

Progressive feminists are going to return male/female relationships to times where women must be chaperoned wherever they go, and men are never to be alone with any woman other than their wife or family; and this won't be for the woman's protection but for men to protect themselves from false allegations.

Greg P said...

I posted this to the overnight thread, but that seems to have died, so I'm posting it here:

Ann Althouse said...

"Everyone was getting raped - but not by Kavenaugh" sums it all up so well. Whoever our Dudley Do-Right is, it sounds like he's still pretty clueless to his surroundings, too. Whether he raped anybody or not, that cluelessness should tell you *something* about him. "Everyone was getting raped" and even he can't provide a story of trying to stop one? What a guy. He's either compromised or an imbecile."

Wrong.

Unless someone was getting raped in his presence, what's he supposed to do? Break in on every couple that's making out, and give the girls a sobriety check? And drag them out of the room if he decides they failed it?

Then you'd be attacking him for being an uptight Puritan, screwing up everybody's fun.

This is a pathetic load of nothing that you have.

You want to know why only a dragon can be appointed as a GOP SC nominee? People like you.

You're slamming him because he didn't;t hunt down girls who might be being raped, and play Superman and save them.

What would you be doing to any non-paragon?

You want normal people as nominees? Then accept that Dems don't have some holy right to have their policies

Night Owl said...

@ Grep P

Did Althouse really say that? I don't read all the comments, so I missed that. Since I don't know the full context maybe I'm missing her point, but based on that snippet it seems like there is nothing this man could've done to satisfy her. Geez, did her kick her dog or something? That analysis doesn't sound like the views of someone who is "detached"; it almost reads like a personal grudge against the guy. Does this topic need the "emotional Althouse" tag?

Greg P said...

@Night Owl

It's a direct quote. You can search for it in the overnight thread.

He's not kicking her dog, he's kicking her fantasy that Roe v Wade is in any way Constitutionally legitimate.

Apparently that's worse

Hammond X. Gritzkofe said...

Exactly! If I were a Repub Senator, Grassley or McConnell walked into my office to poll my vote, I would say:

On a floor vote today, Kavanaugh in an instant. But, with the good of the Party in mind and Kavanaugh's sterling qualifications aside, my vote to confirm is less likely with the passage of time.

Do it now, if you got the stones. There is well beyond enough opportunity for "hearing" and "debate." Delay just makes our side look wimpy-weak while the Donks strut and shout their ass-holery. You want to look like a wimp, that's on you - but don't come in here and ask me to associate with it.

Hammond X. Gritzkofe, LLL (life long libertarian)

Bob said...

Just in case this hasn't been posted:
https://cultofthe1st.blogspot.com/2018/09/why-christine-blasey-fords-high-school_19.html


wildswan, that's an interesting web page. If true at all, Lazy Ford has zero credibility.

MacMacConnell said...

Any bets? In the future after Feinstein's death scholars while rummaging through her papers will find a letter from Professor Ford accusing Neil Gorsuch of attempted "rape" at house party somewhere in Montgomery County 35 years ago.

Night Owl said...

@Grep P : Thanks for responding.

It looks to me like she is quoting someone else. It seems she enjoyed the flippancy of the wording, but that is not necessarily her opinion.

lb said...

I'm actually hoping Kavanaugh has an ace in the hole...like he had a broken leg or arm during that year so he literally could not have been the perpetrator. Wouldn't that be sweet!

MacMacConnell said...

Kavanaugh's family vacationed out of the country in the summers.

Greg P said...

@Night Owl

She was quoting someone else for "Everyone was getting raped - but not by Kavenaugh."

If the rest wasn't her opinion, she sure made it look like her opinion

Bad Lieutenant said...

Shouting Thomas said...
She doesn’t believe Christine Ford.

Both Ford and Kavanaugh were likely too drunk to know what, if anything, happened.

For some reason, only the man is responsible.

9/20/18, 7:39 AM


I never thought this day would come, Shouty.

So the Ds have beaten you down? You now believe, with zero evidence, that there's something wrong with Kavanaugh? That he did it? That he did half of it? Of what? That he was even there then, if there even was a where and a when and a what?

Nobody has proven, demonstrated, or testified to one single thing wrong with Kavanaugh or right with Ford. But, from calumny fatigue I guess, maybe mixed with "Ooh I'm jealous of the richies," you drank the Ford-flavored Kool-Aid. Althouse is jilling off just thinking about it.

Congratulations, faggot. I used to respect you. My bad. Go play working class hero someplace else. Whyncha just vote for freaking Sanders already?

P.S. When Kavanaugh is vindicated and Althouse is in her usual I-am-never-wrong meltdown, kindly keep your fucking enormous mouth shut for once. You have no share in the victory to come. They broke you. At least McCain had three broken limbs. What's your excuse?

PJ said...

Writing in retrospect on election night, I believe the Dems were thinking as stated in the headline until about October 3, when polling started to reveal that their tactics were energizing Republican voters more than Democratic ones. At that point the delaying moves ended and the confirmation occurred earlier than the Dems had initially hoped. I would be interested in knowing more than I do about how much pressure the Democratic Party leadership put on Joe Manchin (and Susan Collins) in the last few days before the confirmation vote, but it appeared to me to be less than maximum, and if that’s correct, it would support my view that for the Democratic leadership, the Kavanaugh fight was never about Kavanaugh or the Supreme Court, it was always only about the midterms.