July 27, 2018

"The U.S. economy had a blockbuster second quarter, with growth surging to a 4.1 percent pace..."

"... the Commerce Department said Friday. That was nearly double the first quarter rate of 2.2 percent and the strongest pace in nearly four years. President Trump has been steadfastly claiming that his policies will catapult the U.S. economy into a much higher rate of growth — 4 percent over the next few years. That would be about double the growth rate in recent years. And it would almost certainly mean a big boost in the standard of living for many Americans, with higher wages and better public services as the government raked in more tax dollars from a booming economy."

I'm quoting NPR.

250 comments:

1 – 200 of 250   Newer›   Newest»
Koot Katmandu said...

NPR LOL. I guess they have to acknowledge the truth sometimes. Give them a day or two and it will be bad news.

My name goes here. said...

"I'm quoting NPR."

Burn.

My name goes here. said...

I will buy a drink to the first person that posts a link to a news story that explains why this is bad, especially for minorities and women.

MikeR said...

"I guess they have to acknowledge the truth sometimes." Yeah. But the majority of the article was caveats.

Ray - SoCal said...

I guess it’s out of date, since it was probably support for Obama’s low gdp growth..

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/4018166

Growth Fetish: Five Reasons Why Prioritizing Growth Is Bad Policy

By James Gustave Speth
09/30/2013 03:13 PM ET
|
Updated Nov 30, 2013

Freder Frederson said...

It is not bad news. But one quarter of high growth does not a trend make. Keep these numbers up for a year or two and I will grudgingly admit that there might be something to this trickle down theory.

However, wage growth is still anemic, barely keeping pace with inflation. Until we see some real wage growth for working people, this growth only means the rich will get richer and the middle and working classes will fall further behind.

Can Of Cheese for Hunter said...

A meeting with Russians is illegal.

Making sure people who are here illegally can vote = A-K!

Election meddling is only fine if one side does it.

Seeing Red said...

Also posted in Gucci, but they do tie together:

My numbers didn’t come in. No Birkin for me!

Welcome to the Decade of Greed! Jumpsuits are back, Gucci is back...I loved the 80s!


Of course the 90s was the REAL Decade of Greed, but the Democrat I feel your pain rapist was in office, so it was OK.

The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...

Well, it is bad for Black women. A booming economy inevitably minimizes the platform available to the marginalized and if you’ve built your life, economically and emotionally, around being a victim your voice will be diminished. Prosperity and Social Justice are incompatible.
Despite what the history of postwar America suggests.

Ralph L said...

This is great! The government is getting more money!
This will make people's lives better.

traditionalguy said...

The secret never spoken of by the media: a booming employment of real jobs with real payroll is that the FICA Taxes come rolling in, and therefore Social Security does not go bankrupt in 4 years like Obama and Soros had set up to be our future.

Roughcoat said...

Well, I got a job in that quarter. Coincidence? I think not.

I voted for Trump willingly and eagerly. I'm liking him more and more. I think he may be the most consequential president of our times. And maybe the best as well.

Michael K said...

Until we see some real wage growth for working people, this growth only means the rich will get richer and the middle and working classes will fall further behind.

Right on time the economically illiterate weigh in.

I wonder if you still want a recession to punish the voters for electing Trump ?

Elect a D Congress majority and watch the crash,

Mike Sylwester said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Mike Sylwester said...

Freder Frederson at 8:37 AM
the rich will get richer and the middle and working classes will fall further behind.

Suppose Joe is going 1 mile/hour, and John is going 2 miles/hour.

Now Joe is going 2 miles/hour, and John is going 6 miles/hour.

Joe is falling further behind.

traditionalguy said...

A rational Democrat should now demand that all Presidents must collude with Russia. After all, Socialism has to spend other people's money. So make them all very rich and then Socialists can steal even more.

Freder Frederson said...

Right on time the economically illiterate weigh in.

Explain to me how my post demonstrates economic illiteracy.

In fact the consensus is that the growth this quarter is blip, not a long term trend.

rhhardin said...

SS doesn't go bankrupt. It's paid out of general revenues regardless.

The trust fund is an accounting thing that holds only IOU's, as it must. The government instantly returns to the economy every dollar it takes in, lest the money supply fall. It leaves behond an IOU when it does this.

There's no scheme possible that doesn't wind up with the trust fund holding an IOU and SS paid out of general revenues.

Nothing changes if they just pay out general revenues up front, and take FICA payments are general income, except the IOUs are dispensed with.

Curious George said...

hahaha!

Mike said...

Under Obama, we had five quarters that had over 4% growth, including 4.6 and 5.2 in mid-2014. It proved to be a bit of an illusion. Growth in Q2 was bumped a bit by people stockpiling in anticipation of Trump's trade war. We'll see how Q3 comes out.

Freder Frederson said...

Now Joe is going 2 miles/hour, and John is going 6 miles/hour.

The problem is that Joe is still going 1 mile/hr (or maybe even dropping down to .9) while John is going 7 miles/hr.

JPS said...

Freder Frederson:

"Keep these numbers up for a year or two and I will grudgingly admit that there might be something to this trickle down theory."

Except that there is no such thing as trickle down theory, at least not that anyone believes in and supports as such. It's a straw man, a pejorative description of (relatively) free market economics by people who don't understand how it's supposed to work, and would oppose it if they did.

tim in vermont said...

In fact the consensus is that the growth this quarter is blip, not a long term trend.

The consensus is that if you make the same prediction repeatedly for a long enough time, you will be right, so keep hope alive! All I know is that there are plenty of help wanted signs everywhere I look.

The Drill SGT said...

Mike

Thatcher said it best:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdR7WW3XR9c

Margaret Thatcher - "They'd rather have the poor poorer."

Can Of Cheese for Hunter said...

Democrats: What must we do to stop this? The American people must suffer with our bad ideas of Medicare for All, (Single payer) high taxes, and an over-bearing government bureaucracy and administrative state.
Dems know what is best + free abortions for all!

tim in vermont said...

The problem is that Joe is still going 1 mile/hr (or maybe even dropping down to .9) while John is going 7 miles/hr.

Is that something that didn’t happen under Clinton or Obama, but just started at Trump’s inauguration? It looks like a rising tide that is lifting all boats to me.

stevew said...

I have it on good authority that these are just 'crumbs'.

-sw

Gahrie said...

In fact the consensus is that the growth this quarter is blip, not a long term trend.

Wasn't there a consensus that the economy was going to crater and never recover after trump's election?

tim in vermont said...

he rich will get richer and the middle and working classes will fall further behind.

You mean the America is already great! rich who live in all of those high income blue bubbles and are scared. shitless the gravy train might be interrupted now that Clinton lost?

Freder Frederson said...

Wasn't there a consensus that the economy was going to crater and never recover after trump's election?

No, there was concern that there would be a big drop in the stock market (but certainly not an overwhelming consensus). But the stock market is not the economy.

Gahrie said...

Joe is falling further behind.

But Joe isn't in a race with John, and both are getting to their destination. Plus John is also paying to transport all the people not bothering, or able, to move to their destinations.

David Begley said...

If the Dems lose NPR.....

Curious George said...

"Freder Frederson said...
Right on time the economically illiterate weigh in.

Explain to me how my post demonstrates economic illiteracy. "

Because you think that the rich getting richer affects all others.

Bad Lieutenant said...


"Keep these numbers up for a year or two and I will grudgingly admit that there might be something to this trickle down theory."


The point is not a rising tide to lift all boats. PDJT is throwing ballast overboard and scraping barnacles from the hull. The deregulation is what should really be causing you to check your premises.

Mike Sylwester said...

Freder Frederson at 8:50 AM
The problem is that Joe is still going 1 mile/hr (or maybe even dropping down to .9)

Employment and wages are rising.

Gahrie said...

Yeah the poor have it so bad in the United States that millions of people are literally dying to join them.

rhhardin said...

A growing pie lifts all boats.

MikeR said...

"But the majority of the article was caveats." OTOH, I note that Scott Adams claims that CNN's coverage is becoming less one-sided. That is, they have mentioned some positive-for-Trump news items recently that he thought they would have skipped, like North Korea dismantling a missile site.
Could be some of the anti-Trump media are beginning to realize that people get the news without their help, and if they try to screen out all pro-Trump news people will more and more think of them as the partisan hacks they are.

Freder Frederson said...

Employment and wages are rising.

Employment is, wages are not (wage growth is stuck at less than three percent, which as I stated is barely keeping up with inflation).

Can Of Cheese for Hunter said...

Illegals voting is the only outsider meddling we need.

The Russians were our flexible ally and re-set button up until they became the necessary scapegoat. It's illegal to beat the Clintons.

Seeing Red said...

the rich will get richer and the middle and working classes will fall further behind.


You really are unclear on the concept, so simple, aren’t you?

My mom started out life in a 20x20 converted garage with an outhouse.

Do you think she ended that way?

rhhardin said...

Trickle-down is not dimes falling from the pockets of the rich.

Trickle-down is a rich guy buying heavy equipment for ditch diggers. That raises the income of ditch diggers.

The rich guy has to see it as a profitable investment, is all. If he doesn't, he won't invest, and that's that for the ditch diggers.

jacksonjay said...

Didn't DJT crow about a number with a 5 in front just yesterday? You know on the welfare tour to Iowa.

I certainly wouldn't expect NPR to know anything about or worry about a budget deficit, but Republicans used to express concern about saddling our children and grandchildren with debt. Estimates for next year's deficit have doubled. Back to trillion dollar budget deficits can't be good. But that was then, ....

Still believing that Trump will screw this up IF he follows that nut job Navarro over the tariff cliff. Was it gonna be a 5, until he went for the steel and aluminum tariffs? BTW, a great number for the 2nd, in spite of all this unfair piggy bank treatment.

exhelodrvr1 said...

4.2% growth, and the NoKors returned 55 sets of remains - two very significant items. If the Democrats care more about the country than about "getting Trump" they will be showing the administration a great deal of appreciation.

WisRich said...

Sometimes something becomes so obvious that you just have to admit it.

Sebastian said...

"Democrats: What must we do to stop this?"

They'll think of something in the fall.

Higher taxes, more regulation, expanding social programs, subsidies for unproductive sectors--the usual gospel. They're predictable that way.

Plus Trump is evil and Trump supporters are racist, so who cares about 4% growth.

Mike Sylwester said...

Freder Frederson at 9:03 AM
wage growth is stuck at less than three percent, which as I stated is barely keeping up with inflation

In other words, wages are rising.

Seeing Red said...

you Can’t argue about Joe until we know more about Joe and his spending habits.

“Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pound ought and six, result misery.”


― Charles Dickens, David Copperfield

Rick said...

And it would almost certainly mean a big boost in the standard of living for many Americans, with higher wages and better public services as the government raked in more tax dollars from a booming economy."

The vast majority of public commentators have no understanding of economics. These numbers aren't even per capita. It takes a long time for differences in growth rates to have the impact they describe which is why it's so important not to depress growth through regulation or treating businesses as the enemy.

Ignorance is Bliss said...

Freder Frederson said...

However, wage growth is still anemic, barely keeping pace with inflation.

Explain that to someone who was unemployed, who now has a job.

Gahrie said...

I wonder whether or not the lives of poor Americans would get better or worse if all the illegal aliens were deported and went home?

Seeing Red said...

Here’s a clue: don’t go to expensive universities. Decline to go into debt taking stupid courses.

buwaya said...

Last quarter growth was actually reduced because of inventory drawdowns, not buildups.

Read the BEA writeup.

And note that the US trade deficit has hit GDP quite badly in 2017-2018, and partially explains the 1Q results.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

Wasn't there a consensus that the economy was going to crater and never recover after trump's election?

Yes both Obama and his Treasury Sec Lew (just like his predecessor Geitner) repeatedly lectured all of us that 2% growth was "the new normal" and Obama further laughed at Trump and said he couldn't achieve 4% growth because there's "no magic wand" to wave that reality into occurring. Ha ha ha ha.

With tax cuts and bouyant enthusiasm one doesn't need to wish for magic wands.

Freder Frederson said...

and the NoKors returned 55 sets of remains - two very significant items.

I bet all those parents that were begging Trump to get their kids' remains back are elated.

Returning 55 sets of remains doesn't mean that the North Koreans are getting rid of their nuclear weapons.

gilbar said...

someone living in a dream world said:
The problem is that Joe is still going 1 mile/hr (or maybe even dropping down to .9)

In the Dream World; EVERYONE is working two (or Three!) jobs just to keep afloat!
In the Dream World; EVERYONE IS UNEMPLOYED!
In the Dream World; EVERYONE (except THE RICH!) has seen a cut in pay!!
In the Dream World; EVERYONE (except THE RICH!) has to pay increased taxes!
In the Dream World; There will be a Blue Wave!
In the Dream World; Hillary is our President!

gilbar said...

Freder Frederson said...However, wage growth is still anemic, barely keeping pace with inflation.
Oh, Sorry I missed this one:
In a Dream World: Anemic wage growth means WAGE DECREASE!!! (maybe even dropping down to .9)

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

Or is it unfair of me to quote 2016 Obama now? Because he lectured me a lot, I feel that his words should be revived for examination now and then. He was such a demagogue and liar we need to "keep it real" as the good times start rolling again.

exhelodrvr1 said...

Freder,
Your true colors, and idiocy, are showing through. Again. You're a real prick.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

Returning 55 sets of remains doesn't mean that the North Koreans are getting rid of their nuclear weapons.

What, Freder? Did you visit the non-sequitur generator to come up with that shit!

Ignorance is Bliss said...

Mike said...

Growth in Q2 was bumped a bit by people stockpiling in anticipation of Trump's trade war.

Who was stockpiling, and what were they stockpiling?

Were Americans stockpiling American-made goods? Why would a trade war inspire that behavior?
Were Americans stockpiling foreign-made goods? How would that bump up US GDP?
Were foreigners stockpiling American-made goods? Possible, but unlikely to account for much more than a rounding error in the GDP increase.

Do you have numbers to back up this claim of stockpiling?

Clyde said...

If this keeps up, we'll soon have suicidal Democrats jumping off buildings.

NTTAWWT.

John said...

For all of those who claim to be supporting Trump because of the booming economy, will you withdraw your support if the economy enters a recession?

I think the responses will break down as follows:

1. Yes
2. The president doesn't control the economy we were due for a recession it's just part of the natural and healthy business cycle.
3. The GDP numbers are wrong as a result of a Deep State conspiracy.

Bill Crawford said...

Mike,

GDP growth under President Obama never even hit 3%

Real GDP growth of the United States from 1990 to 2017

Jersey Fled said...

Note to Freder:

The 4.1 percent figure was the increase in "real" GDP. Therefore it is the annualized increase AFTER adjusting for inflation.

https://bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

Try again.

Seeing Red said...

4. Americans gave the House to the Dems and since they’re rabid loco, I expected a Recession.

buwaya said...

Also the number to watch for personal income is median household income, from the US Census. It is very lagged though. In 2020 you will get a better idea of what is happening now.

Michael K said...

Explain to me how my post demonstrates economic illiteracy.

In fact the consensus is that the growth this quarter is blip, not a long term trend.


The "consensus" is that of the Democratic Socialists of America" where you get your information and from the bartender who is the future of the Democrat Party.

As far as that red hot Obama economy, there is this.

Barack Obama Is Now The Only President In History To Never Have A Year Of 3% GDP Growth

Keep trying Freder, now Economist Freder. Field Marshall was last year.


John said...

Seeing Red,

LOL. Recent events have given me a new found appreciation of the swing voter - someone who is willing to change their mind.

Ignorance is Bliss said...

Freder Frederson said...

Employment is, wages are not (wage growth is stuck at less than three percent, which as I stated is barely keeping up with inflation).

Inflation was 2.14% last year.

So when you say Wages are not [rising], what you mean is Wages are [rising]
And when you say barely keeping up with inflation, you mean outpacing inflation by more than 40%.

tim in vermont said...

For all of those who claim to be supporting Trump because of the booming economy, will you withdraw your support if the economy enters a recession?

LOL. For those of you who supported Hillary because Trump was crude, if it came out that her husband was a forcible rapist and that she was close friends with Harvey Weinstein and clearly knew what he was, will you withdraw your support?

If socialism were going to work it would have worked, it would take a lot more than a simple recession, which is sort of part of the business CYCLE to change my opinion on the best way to manage an economy.

Seeing Red said...

5. Expect a slowdown even if the the Rabid get to control the spending keys, but having NAFTA and EUro trade agreements signed no recession.

6. Anyone else care to join?

JAORE said...

"and the NoKors returned 55 sets of remains - two very significant items.

I bet all those parents that were begging Trump to get their kids' remains back are elated.

Returning 55 sets of remains doesn't mean that the North Koreans are getting rid of their nuclear weapons."

There is an old saw about a kid in a pile of manure. He gleefully digs into the mess. An adult asks, "Why are you so happy?" The kid answers,"With all this horse crap there must be a pony somewhere!"

The leftist version is a kid screaming for a field full of ponies to get out of his way. An adult asks, "Why are you so angry?" The kid replies, "With all these ponies, there must be horse shit somewhere!"

Freder Frederson said...

Were foreigners stockpiling American-made goods? Possible, but unlikely to account for much more than a rounding error in the GDP increase.

Apparently, soybean exports increased 3000%.

I have work to do, so I need to leave this thread.

But let's come back in a year. If we have had four quarters of 4+% growth and wages are rising 1+% more than inflation, I will admit I was wrong. And I will buy the three Mikes a steak dinner at the Trump property of your choice.

Otherwise you all owe me a steak dinner, and it will not be at a Trump property.

Nonapod said...

"Wealth is not a pizza where, if I have too many slices, you have to eat the Dominos box. My wealth does not create your poverty. Your wealth does not create my poverty. They're separate questions. And we can generate more wealth." - P.J. O'Rourke

John said...

Tim,

You didn't answer the question.

Francisco D said...

@Freder,

I appreciate that you are echoing the usual big government talking points and not trying to be an annoying troll. I do not expect people with a leftist orientation to understand or appreciate free market economics. For that, we will disagree and probably never come to agreement.

Can Of Cheese for Hunter said...

During Obama -the homeless problem EXPLODED where I live. I'm sure he's not to blame.

Ray - SoCal said...

More gdp history:
https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543

I don’t remember Obama having 4% GDP

The gas lighting a while ago was GDP now was due to Obama’s policy. I guess that one flopped, I have not heard it for a while.

tim in vermont said...

There are two main parts of our brain, for the purposes of this discussion I am going to call one the inner child, home of emotions, drives, desires, fears, and the other our inner adult, home of logic, planning, regard for consequences, etc. The biggest power that the inner child has over the adult is that it can veto certain lines of inquiry because your inner child, being the more ancient brain, and far simpler, has lightening reflexes.

That veto power of the inner child is why Freder, who clearly doesn’t think with his brain, finds it impossible to consider any line of thought that might reflect positively on Trump. The Democrats play to people’s inner child, look at the balloon over London if you doubt me, for the reason that children are far easier to manipulate. Your inner adult is not even fully formed (cerebral cortex) until your early twenties, which is why Democrats are such strong advocates of youth voting.

Then he pulls up cherry picked analysis from websites that don’t allow dissent and can’t comprehend why his hothouse flower statistical argument won’t stand up to questioning and just piles on more and deeper.

buwaya said...

The inflation rate as the US calculates it is quite misleading.
It misses critical numbers like cost of housing, and food and energy.
This makes it an unreliable guide.
Other countries use different ways of calculating inflation, generally not avoiding such large factors.
Btw, international inflation rates are not comparable.

Michael K said...

If we have had four quarters of 4+% growth and wages are rising 1+% more than inflation, I will admit I was wrong.

No, you won't. You will have some other bullshit argument. Just like your previous arguments that got you the name "Field Marshall."

Seeing Red said...

No John, I’m just older and see the pattern. My first vote was for Ronnie.

You need to understand that for the older people on this blog, outside of a blip or 2 (1986 Senate flip to R) the Dems controlled both houses —the keys—for at least 30 years, which for some of us, would have been the first 30 years of our lives.

You also should understand the keys (Ways and Means) were held by Dan Rostenkowski D Chicago and I’m an Illinoian. The Combine Uber Alles. Look up Paul Powell he had shoeboxes full of money.

There’s a reason Where’s Mine is the unofficial motto.

We’ve lived thru all this and paid attention.

tim in vermont said...

Tim,

You didn’t answer the question.


Clearly I did John. Haidt was right. You liberals find it impossible to empathize with conservatives long enough to understand what we tell you even though we conservatives have no problem empathizing with you. It’s just that your moronic point of view that Trump support can be analyzed through posing a simplistic hypothetical, for example, you didn’t posit what caused the hypothetical recession, is it economic adjustment to weaning ourselves off of an abject dependence on Chinese goods? Your hypothetical is not even worth entertaining.

Ignorance is Bliss said...

Freder Frederson said...

Otherwise you all owe me a steak dinner, and it will not be at a Trump property.

Ever the socialist, Freder thinks he gets to say what other people owe him.

gerry said...

Frederson at 9:13: I bet all those parents that were begging Trump to get their kids' remains back are elated.

What a wonderful human being Frederson must be. I am sure he attracts others just like himself to his cause. His comments make me think of things like this.

Seeing Red said...

But let's come back in a year. If we have had four quarters of 4+% growth and wages are rising 1+% more than inflation


Why set the bar so high?

Were you fine with the new normal? Exceeding 2% each quarter should be acceptable.

John said...

7. economic adjustment to weaning ourselves off of an abject dependence on Chinese goods.

Got it. You're not a swing voter.

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

Didn't you just make a 'getting used to Trump' tag?

Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...

"liberal tears lifts all boats"

WK said...

Most of the articles talk about “average wages” not increasing. Here is a simple math example of how averages wages work....
Company has five employees making $10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 per hour. Average wage is 150/5 or $30 per hour.
Company hires 2 new employees and gives 10 percent raises to the others:
$10, 10, 11, 22, 33, 44, 55. Average wage is now 185/7 or $26.42 per hour. Average wages decreased about 12% but everyone employed got a raise and 2 new people were hired. Instead of looking at average wages we should be looking at total payroll increases. We really need to look at how total employment is changing and total payroll. If many of folks coming back into the workforce from being unemployed are below the median wage. Then average wage will decrease.

Rick said...

Freder Frederson said...
The problem is that Joe is still going 1 mile/hr (or maybe even dropping down to .9) while John is going 7 miles/hr.


What nonsense. The "flat wage" assertion ignores that the measurement is not for the same people and does not include all compensation. It's interesting the far left claims to believe both (1) health insurance is so valuable providing it universally is the single best modern measure of morality and (2) health insurance is so unimportant it should be excluded from compensation analysis. This shows their fundamental dishonesty and why their ideas should simply be ignored. You can't build a functioning economy on fantasies.

The statistic is also cherry picked. Piketty's own analysis showed even the bottom quintile of Americans saw real wage growth of > 20% for the period he analyzed for this 2013 book [1970 - ~2010]. Further this analysis excludes the impact of immigration which in America is disproportionately unskilled which means the data is skewed too low. Wage analysis also excludes existing transfers so the financial picture outlined is woefully false and intentionally so since the complete picture doesn't support the far left's hysteria.

But no matter what reality is far left radicals will simply assert whatever nonsense is necessary to support their political preference of more government control and spending.
Since the mainstream media is controlled by the left they will simply never report it and any other media will be denounced meaning left voters will ignore it. This is the advantage of political control of the education system.

tim in vermont said...

Got it. You’re not a swing voter

I think that the swing voters in the “blue wall” states who work in the unionized heavy industries that the Democrats had consigned to the dustbin of history see Trump as the only one fighting for them. If part of that is a recession brought on by weaning ourselves off of cheap Chinese steel, I don’t think that that is going to change a lot of minds. It’s an article of faith for Democrats that these people’s jobs are doomed. This is what I mean by you not being able to understand people who are not like you.

Freder Frederson said...

What a wonderful human being Frederson must be.

I am criticizing Trump for claiming he was hearing from parents of missing soldiers from the Korean War. The parents of these soldiers are long dead (or well over 100 years old).

Ever the socialist, Freder thinks he gets to say what other people owe him.

It's called a bet, and I am giving them 3:1 odds (actually 9:1 since they only have to pay for a third of a meal and I have to pay for three).

Ignorance is Bliss said...

Bill Crawford said...

GDP growth under President Obama never even hit 3%

Real GDP growth of the United States from 1990 to 2017


It did, if you look at it quarter-by-quarter. Since the numbers reported today were for a quarter, comparing them to Obama's, by quarter seems appropriate.

DanTheMan said...

Of course the economy's growth rate has doubled. Everybody is working two jobs!
duh!

Curious George said...

"Freder Frederson said...

Explain to me how my post demonstrates economic illiteracy.

In fact the consensus is that the growth this quarter is blip, not a long term trend."

Consensus!

http://bluepillsheep.com/25-experts-claimed-trump-never-get-3-gdp-suck/

buwaya said...

I like international comparisons because they use (or try to) use uniform standards like PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) indexes.

Constant dollar calculations like GDP series reported in a US context are I think quite a lot less reliable.

And the general state of public welfare can't really be judged this way weeks after the end of a quarter. Its all political talking points of course.

The only relevant stat that is available in near-real time is employment. So far that is good but not brilliant. And of course also discount the very misleading unemployment rate.

Curious George said...

Paul Krugman. Wrong as usuual.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=96&v=cZ5dVBa3grw

DanTheMan said...

>>In fact the consensus is that the growth this quarter is blip

"Crumbs" is the word you are looking for. Not "blip".

CWJ said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Seeing Red said...

If the working class wants to get ahead, my suggestion is to GET OUT of expensive blue cities.

Move to someplace less expensive.

You’ll get more bang for your buck.

What that $15 minimum wage really is is a subsidy to rich blue cities from the rest of us so they can live the lifestyle they want. The urbane happening 25/7/365 lifestyle. Or whatever lifestyle.

I don’t care if I can get Chinese at 3am.





Leland said...

What? Lowering tax rates results in increased tax revenue from increased economic growth. Somebody explain this to CBO, OMB, and Krugman.

Ray - SoCal said...

Swag on increasing wages:

1. Keep on reducing over regulation. Regulatory compliance costs is a hidden is a monster.
2. Reduce workers comp
3. Reduce legal costs. Lawsuits in many areas and payouts are out of control.
4. Eliminate the minimum wage. $15 an hour costs jobs, especially for minorities.
5. Reduce substantially work visas. H1 and h2.
6. Level the trade field - other countries discriminate against us products.
7. Reform higher education. Worthless degrees and student loans are a huge hidden costs.
8. Make it easier to build. Zoning, over regulation, Lawfare, environmental stuff, etc make it very expensive to build in many areas.
9. Make e-verify mandatory.
10. Reform immigration.
11. Reform k-12 education
12. Increase marriage. It makes economic sense for lower income not to marry currently.

Temujin said...

The rolling 4 quarter average is 3.1% growth. That's pretty darn good. Moving an economy the size of the US at 3.1% growth for 4 consecutive quarters is, well...let's ask Bernie Sanders what he thinks. Heh. Asking a Socialist about economic growth. Funny.

Ignorance is Bliss said...

Freder Frederson said...

It's called a bet.

Oh, I see. You kind of left off the part where you offer the terms, and see if someone accepts. But again, consent was never a big part of socialism.

Bay Area Guy said...

Don't fret Democrats -- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortes ("The Big OC") is here to explain the 4.1% growth.

It's because too many people are working too much.

Chuck said...

Wow it is so great that Atlhouse listens to her local NPR-affiliate radio station. Or reads NPR.org.

If so, Althouse would have caught the story on Claire McAskill's campaign being under a Russian phishing attack. Or that Michael Cohen is reportedly saying that contrary to President Trump's denials, he did know about a campaign meeting with Russian operatives in Trump Tower. Or that the Trump Administration is proposing changes to Medicare reimbursements that sound a whole lot like a broken campaign promise from Trump that he would not allow any "cuts" to Medicare. If it isn't a cut to Medicare, then I'd like to know what it is. (I'm not arguing that the Trump proposal is bad policy, so don't argue that with me. I am arguing that Trump made a stupid and anti-Republican promise during the campaign. A promise that I said that Trump could never keep. And now, Trump is not keeping it.) Or how Trump's tariff war may be "devastating" to the American workers at a Kia assembly plant in West Point, Georgia.

All on NPR, this morning.

NPR, on Althouse. Burn.

Big Mike said...

It is not bad news.

Freder wrote that at 8:37. I had to go out and buy another keyboard because the tears of joy sliding off my cheeks shorted out the old one.

Dude1394 said...

" Blogger Freder Frederson said...

It is not bad news. But one quarter of high growth does not a trend make. Keep these numbers up for a year or two and I will grudgingly admit that there might be something to this trickle down theory"

You did look at the article didn't you? Maybe not. The graph in the middle shows the "trend". It looks just like a growing stock. Higher highs and higher lows. Come on man. Since 2016, nothing but up.

Bay Area Guy said...

Hi Chuck,

The post isn't about NPR -- it's about 4.1% economic growth, which translates into thousands of jobs and the thousands of families supported by said jobs.

NPR was just the source.

buwaya said...

NPR in general is a good guide to the enemy mind - the enemy of most of you anyway.
It is one of those ubiquitous, reliable sources of the world view of the hegemonic caste. It is widely understood, now, that one caste in the US speaks, and does not listen, and expects the other caste to listen, and not speak.

Trump broke this expectation. Chuck does not acknowledge the larger context of course.

Seeing Red said...

I have no problems with rich boomers on Medicare paying more out of pocket for their vanity cosmetic surgery to look young so it shores up Medicare for important or more critical spending like getting hip replacements in a timely manner unlike Canada.

But I didn’t vote Against Hillary because of her Medicare stance. I vowed 25 years ago to crawl across broken glass to vote against that egomaniacal rapist-enabling grifter.


It’s for the children, Chuck.


buwaya said...

You certainly could have a recession.
I expect that a Democratic House could bring you one, as business confidence crashes.
The US economy does not consist mainly of the concentrated interests in NY and the SF Bay Area.

Dude1394 said...

" Blogger Freder Frederson said...

and the NoKors returned 55 sets of remains - two very significant items.
...
Returning 55 sets of remains doesn't mean that the North Koreans are getting rid of their nuclear weapons."

Nor does it mean they are NOT as the democrat-media was touting before they were returned.

Pianoman said...

It doesn't matter, because the President says mean things in his tweets, and also banged a porn star ten years ago.

Seeing Red said...

You certainly could have a recession.
I expect that a Democratic House could bring you one, as business confidence crashes.
The US economy does not consist mainly of the concentrated interests in NY and the SF Bay Area.


Like clockwork. They get it, muck it up and blame Trump.

Original Mike said...

Chuck yesterday: “My comment always goes to something that is drawn directly from what [Althouse] wrote.”

Chuck today: Well, read it for yourself.

Can Of Cheese for Hunter said...

We don't want Pelosi's America working. We want as many people on the government dole as possible.

Michael K said...

Blogger buwaya said...
You certainly could have a recession.
I expect that a Democratic House could bring you one, as business confidence crashes.


I wonder if they have planned that as some left wingers like late night comedy actors have suggested?

Original Mike said...

Freder would do well to read WK’s post at 9:49.

Dr Weevil said...

I was going to call Freder a fool for not understanding a really basic economic point, but no one else here seems to be able to explain it to him, which makes him look less bad and them less good.

Here's why lagging average wages are not a problem:

In a booming economy, it's possible for everyone to be better off while the average wage actually drops, if a large number of unemployed people are joining or rejoining the work-force, which is what has been happening since Trump was elected.

Suppose 100 million Americans were working for an average of $50,000/year when Trump was elected. That's an average wage of $50,000 (duh!).

Suppose the average wage of those 100 million goes up 4% to $50,000/year in a booming economy. Is the average wage now $52,000 for all Americans? No, because in a booming economy millions of formerly unemployed people join or rejoin the economy, which is great news for them, not bad news at all for the others (they're making 4% more and have more people to share the work with, too), but tends to pull the average down, because new workers tend to be in the bottom half of the wage-distribution.

So, if we continue my example, if 10 million formerly unemployed Americans get jobs (some fresh out of college or high-school, some coming off periods of unemployment), and if these people are making an average of $20,000/year - quite a bit more than minimum wage in most areas - then the average wages of all Americans drop to $49,100/year, even though absolutely everyone is much better off - 100 million got 4% pay raises and 10 million more went from zero to $20,000 average, with reasonable hopes for much more as they gain experience and build their resumes.

If you can't handle the arithmetic, here's how it works: 100 m x 52 k = 5.2 trillion, 10 m x 20 k = 0.2 trillion, 5.4 trillion total wages divided by 110 m people = 49.1 k average earnings.

If, under Trump, average wages are "stagnant" rather than actually dropping, things are even better than in my hypothetical example.

The problem with calculating average wages is that the government only counts those with jobs. (I think they may even count only those with full-time jobs.) If they calculated the average wage of everyone who has a job or is seriously trying to find one, averaging in a bunch of zeroes for the latter, 'average wage' would be a far more accurate measure of the health of the U.S. economy.

Thus ends the lesson.

Earnest Prole said...

I'm quoting NPR.

It burns! It burns!

Michael K said...

Poor Chuck.

To quote Bobby Kennedy:

“You see things; and you say, ‘Why?’ But I dream things that never were; and I say, ‘Why not?’" That was really GB Shaw.

Actually, Chuck sees things that never were and says, "See ? I told you so !"

Chuck said...

Bay Area Guy said...
Hi Chuck,

The post isn't about NPR -- it's about 4.1% economic growth, which translates into thousands of jobs and the thousands of families supported by said jobs.

NPR was just the source.


I know that NPR was "just the source." I've done that on these comments pages; I have cited some ordinary fact via a an NPR link. And in doing so, I have been attacked on these pages with the presumption that NPR should not and cannot be believed. Even for a routine link.

And as we saw in the second post on this page, the readership got the message: "I'm quoting NPR" = "Burn."

Dr Weevil said...

Oops, typo in my 5th paragraph: "Suppose the average wage of those 100 million goes up 4% to $52,000/year in a booming economy."

Should probably have ended "Thus endeth the lesson", too.

Dr Weevil said...

Chuck doesn't seem to understand the concept of "admission against interest". If NPR trashes Trump, it means very little, because that's what they do. If NPR says something that makes Trump look good, it means a lot, because it means he's done something so obviously good and right that even NPR can't find a way to make it look bad.

Chuck said...

Original Mike said...
Chuck yesterday: “My comment always goes to something that is drawn directly from what [Althouse] wrote.”

Chuck today: Well, read it for yourself.


And today what Althouse wrote was the immensely coy, "I'm quoting NPR."

narciso said...

so air clair can't be falling of her own accord, that's impossible, the fact that one of the party commissioned the report from fusion, that another was a state department translator, that yet another had been given an open ended letter by Kerry, on authorization from Loretta lynch, no that doesn't compute,

Gk1 said...

What will be interesting for me is if the numbers hold up and are not "revised" downward as every Obama GDP number was a few months after great fanfare when the numbers were announced. I'll take 4.1 GDP any day as I would hope most american's would.

Original Mike said...

Chuck, the reason you get such shit is that, contrary to your protestations, your posts are hardly ever “drawn directly from what [Althouse] wrote”. Virtually everything is used as a springboard to talk about yout hobby horse. It is so tedious you get pushback, which I can only conclude is what you are after.

Pookie Number 2 said...

And in doing so, I have been attacked on these pages with the presumption that NPR should not and cannot be believed.

Your admitted affinity for prevarication also creates the presumption that you should not be believed. The fact that you might accidentally write something true doesn’t disprove your mindless bias. Same for NPR.

Annie C. said...

And today what Althouse wrote was the immensely coy, "I'm quoting NPR."

Oh Chuck, we know about your crush on Althouse.

Chuck said...

Dr Weevil said...
Chuck doesn't seem to understand the concept of "admission against interest". If NPR trashes Trump, it means very little, because that's what they do. If NPR says something that makes Trump look good, it means a lot, because it means he's done something so obviously good and right that even NPR can't find a way to make it look bad.


Good. Then let's have that NPR fight. I have seen NPR for a long time as being intelligent, interesting... and profoundly biased to the left. Just like you do.

The thing is, what NPR is, is what Rush and Hannity aren't. It's conversant. It's smart. They have an Ombudsman. They have opposing points of view. They do corrections.

And what they have, is what Rush and Hannity don't have; they have an obligation (currently avoided) to be fair and balanced. But NPR doesn't have an obligation to be stupid. So Trumpism doesn't have a prayer on NPR. But smart conservatives should have a place on NPR.

My name goes here. said...

Chuck said...
"that the Trump Administration is proposing changes to Medicare reimbursements that sound a whole lot like a broken campaign promise from Trump that he would not allow any "cuts" to Medicare. If it isn't a cut to Medicare, then I'd like to know what it is."

If they spend $XYZ billions now and after the proposed change still spend $XYZ billions then that is not a cut. If they take that same pile of money and reimbursement changes so that some OBGYNs end up making more money per patient visit and some Rheumatologists gets less that is not really a cut.

Spending less on the program, that would be a cut.

Can Of Cheese for Hunter said...

but but but Bueller is closing in.

Bueller is now officially an anti-free speech SJW. No free speech for you, Trump baby.
Hillary lost butt hurt will hunt you down.

narciso said...

no chuck it's the narrative, they stuck for the soviets so often in the 80s. they should have been called radio stolicnaya, how often did they challenge the Obama administration, except from the far left,

Chuck said...

Annie C said...
And today what Althouse wrote was the immensely coy, "I'm quoting NPR."

Oh Chuck, we know about your crush on Althouse.



That's just more of what I posted yesterday:
Seriously; day after day a pattern repeats itself on Althouse comments pages. I post a comment that is more or less directed at Ann Althouse as the author of her main post. My comment always goes to something that is drawn directly from what she wrote.

Then, what ensues is a string of personal attacks on me. As you have just started, here. Your attack (you're on the moderate end of the Hate-Chuck scale) will be followed by a string of far more personal attacks, by "Drago" and "Darrell" and others. Drago won't let it go with just one post. He will rattle off three or four; and with virtually no content that relates to the main blog post or whatever it is that was in my comment. Drago's insults will consist of misrepresentations of things that he wants readers to think that I have posted in the past.

If I reply to Drago or Darrell it will provoke more personal attacks from others; you, "Rusty," "Kevin," "Achilles," etc., etc. And in no time flat, a significant portion of the page will devolve into personal attacks. And "clutter," in Althouse's parlance.

Just watch. If I have scared some of my detractors off from using this page in the way I have described (by calling them out so explicitly with this comment), I will just save this comment for future use when -- and it will be when -- that pattern arises again.


And again, and again.

Darrell said...

I called NPR National Peoples Radio back in the 1980s.

Dr Weevil said...

"Then let's have that NPR fight." Let's not. Let's stick with the topic of this post. Got anything to say about my 10:27am comment? It's long but the economic point that Freder missed and no one else has bothered to explain is very simple, and has everything to do with the topic of this post. Care to discuss it, or do you just want to drive yet another comment thread into the ditch?

Chuck said...

My name goes here. said...
Chuck said...
"that the Trump Administration is proposing changes to Medicare reimbursements that sound a whole lot like a broken campaign promise from Trump that he would not allow any "cuts" to Medicare. If it isn't a cut to Medicare, then I'd like to know what it is."

If they spend $XYZ billions now and after the proposed change still spend $XYZ billions then that is not a cut. If they take that same pile of money and reimbursement changes so that some OBGYNs end up making more money per patient visit and some Rheumatologists gets less that is not really a cut.

Spending less on the program, that would be a cut.


Right; I already said that I was not going to debate the wisdom of the policy. All that I questioned was Trump's bloviating promises that he wouldn't ever cut anything.

If reimbursement cuts make it so your own rheumatologist or OB/GYN won't or can't see you anymore, that's a "cut" for you.

Seeing Red said...

A headline from Bloomberg Opinion.

U.S. GDP Report Clears Path for Two More Fed Rate Hikes
The economy is expanding faster than policy makers expected.


Why didn’t the policy makers or “experts” expect it?

I did.

How many times must the lesson be learned?

Bill Crawford said...

Thanks for the correction, Ignorance is Bliss

Pookie Number 2 said...

And again, and again.

A smarter person than Chuck would eventually realize that his posts are as tedious and predictable as the responses.

Unfortunately, Chuck’s not just dishonest by his own admission, he’s also stupid, and hence committed to cluttering up Althouse’s comments with often untrue and always uninteresting Trump derangement.

Darrell said...

Darrell and Drago didn't attack Chuck yesterday, so his magic spell must have worked. He did get some advice yesterday "Why don't you try NOT being an asshole?" That, apparently, fell on deaf ears.

Chuck said...

Got anything to say about my 10:27am comment?

Yes; I don't care. That's what I have to say. The GDP number is nice, and I am glad to see it, and it's good.

It's good, in exactly the same way that the 4.9% growth number from 3rd quarter of 2014 was good.

Darrell said...

I would get a couple of guards from Blackwater, if I were Althouse. Chuck's pimple is about to pop.

Dr Weevil said...

You don't care whether Freder made a totally fraudulent argument that the GDP number was not "nice", and that no one else here showed how fraudulent (Fredulent?) it was? Of course you didn't: my argument offered no opportunity to divert the comment thread into the ditch with irrelevant Trump-trashing.

Bay Area Guy said...

Chuck sez:

"Good. Then let's have that NPR fight."

Nothing wrong with an NPR fight. But this thread is about 4.1% GDP growth which translates into thousands of jobs, which benefit thousands of families who are supported by these jobs.

Maybe, we should focus on the 4.1% GDP growth and discern what policies, if any, are helping to cause this.

Seeing Red said...

that the Trump Administration is proposing changes


You did it to yourself.

But what if the cuts are in admin costs?

Will you still rant and rave it’s a cut?


How dare they cut admin costs?


I did not have sex with that woman.

If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor.

Anyone who nominally pays attention knows Medicare needs to be reformed.

ALL US PROGRAMS need to be reformed for the country’s future.

What they need to do is across the board reform and sell it as every ox is gored, including congressional bennies funding for our futures.


You should really see a doctor about your blood pressure. Your head’s going to explode.

You get worked up over the strangest stuff.




Chuck said...

Darrell said...
Darrell and Drago didn't attack Chuck yesterday, so his magic spell must have worked. He did get some advice yesterday "Why don't you try NOT being an asshole?" That, apparently, fell on deaf ears.


Woops!

************
Chuck said...
I was getting worried, that "Drago" would fail to prove me exactly right, when I had predicted that he would follow a comment from me on this page with multiple comments of his own consisting of personal attacks on me which misrepresented my words and which had nothing to do with the substance of the Althouse blog post or my comment thereon.

But Drago comes through!

Blogger Drago said...
"Slightly shorter Chuck: “Why oh why do people not see the brilliance of my tedious, predictable, and thoughtless bitching about Trump?"

LLR Chuck and Inga:
No-bo-dy knows..the troubles they've seen..
No-bo-dy knows..their sor-rows...

7/26/18, 3:16 PM

Blogger Drago said...
Dear Diary, I was really happy to see Inga reappear after her most unfortunate verbal attack gaffe.

Chuck missed her and he needed a "win"..

7/26/18, 3:19 PM

7/27/18, 6:45 AM


No, Darrell; Drago came through. He could not resist. He had to do the personal attack precisely as I predicted, right down to the mischaracterization of me and the linking me to democrats and my supposed left-wing allies.

Seeing Red said...

NPR had to grit their teeth to admit that. Lololol

buwaya said...

NPR is, like most of the MSM, clever propaganda.

They certainly aren't balanced. They select what they think is politically useful and play that up, using their cultural capital accumulated from their ancient institutional position to justify this selectivity. They rarely report on what does not fit their agenda.

Distrust all "news", as even what is true is filtered to achieve a goal. You may even get 100% facts, in their feed, but you will not get 100% of all relevant facts. even

The devil is an expert at putting on a pretty face.

rehajm said...

...will grudgingly admit that there might be something to this trickle down theory...

Explain to me how my post demonstrates economic illiteracy.



For starters 'Trickle down' is not an economic theory at all. It is a pejorative used by economic illiterates to describe anything related to economics they don't like.

Seeing Red said...

BTW Chuck.

Don’t forget the lesson about “cuts.”

If the Dems want $5 billion for a program and only get $3 billion after the budget passes, that’s a “cut.” The orogram did get $3 billion more, but it’s still a “cut.”

Curious George said...

Chuck: The result of trying to stuff ten pounds of douche in an eight pound bag,

tcrosse said...

Seeing Red said...
NPR had to grit their teeth to admit that. Lololol


I thought Inga took her LOL and went home.

Original Mike said...

”The GDP number is nice, and I am glad to see it, and it's good.”

You know what else it is? It’s the topic of the post.

Seeing Red said...

I loved the trickle down 80s. I found jobs in the depth of the recession, tripled my salary and had a401k by 1990.

When you made $9000 it was easy to do.

Chuck said...

Seeing Red said...
BTW Chuck.

Don’t forget the lesson about “cuts.”

If the Dems want $5 billion for a program and only get $3 billion after the budget passes, that’s a “cut.” The orogram did get $3 billion more, but it’s still a “cut.”


Godamnit, you are lecturing me like I was a Democrat. I'd LIKE to see reforms of Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. Those are things that a Paul Ryan, a Mitch McConnell, a Jeff Flake, a John McCain would ordinarily campaign on.

But Donald Trump ran AGAINST those things.

Remember what Trump said about the Republican tax cut of last year? Trump said that he did not want "Reform" to be anywhere in the title. Trump wanted it to be the "Cut, cut, cut, cut, cut" bill. Trump said that if they put "Reform" in the title, some people might think that not everybody was getting a tax cut. (Which is even more humorous when recalling that Trump at one time campaigned on RAISING taxes on rich people like himself.) I think that naming the bill might have been Trump's only substantive work on it.


rehajm said...

Why set the bar so high?

Were you fine with the new normal? Exceeding 2% each quarter should be acceptable.


For me the defining point is 3% or 3%+ for four consecutive quarters. CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin said on air he would literally eat crow if Trump managed to have annual GDP of 3% over his tenure.

Somebody's gonna need crow recipes.

Chuck said...

Original Mike said...
”The GDP number is nice, and I am glad to see it, and it's good.”

You know what else it is? It’s the topic of the post.


What was, "I'm quoting NPR"?

Or should I ask "My name goes here"? Burn.

Bad Lieutenant said...

And again, and again.

7/27/18, 10:50 AM

See, one of your heroes, Bill Clinton, popularized the saying that I believe originated with Albert Einstein, to the effect that "the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result."

Does it ever occur to you to wonder what you are doing wrong?

Rhetorical, as shiloh or somebody used to say.

Curious George said...

"Chuck said...
Godamnit, you are lecturing me like I was a Democrat. I'd LIKE to see reforms of Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. Those are things that a Paul Ryan, a Mitch McConnell, a Jeff Flake, a John McCain would ordinarily campaign on."

Fuck you Cuck and your GOPe fucktards who have no intention of doing any of that. A decade of promises and when they get control and have a POTUS who will not veto...nothing. THey, like you, are eunuchs.

CJ said...

If an economy the size of the US grows at >4% for the next 6 years we are literally going to be colonizing Mars by the end of President Pence’s 2nd term.

That’s not hyperbole. Human colonization of Mars will have begun in less than 15 years if the economy grows like this.

Darrell said...

Drago was just making a few observations, Chuck. And you mentioned his name first.

Original Mike said...

”What was, "I'm quoting NPR"?”

A hook to talk about your fixation. You don’t really believe that people don’t see that, do you?

rehajm said...

The household spending and corporate capital spending numbers are strong evidence to suggest this is a robust and sustainable growth number rather than a one off due to impending tariffs.

Bad Lieutenant said...


Blogger Darrell said...
I would get a couple of guards from Blackwater, if I were Althouse. Chuck's pimple is about to pop.

7/27/18, 10:58 AM


Never fear. As long as we can get a photo of Chuck so she knows which drooling crazy to watch. When she sees him, she will pull Meade's gift, her new SIG P365, out of the $3000 holster-purse she selected over the Gucci crap, and relieve Chuck of the burden of existing. Everyone here will testify to self-defense.

As she is anosmic, she can't depend on smelling him, so check six, Emerita!

My name goes here. said...

"Spending less on the program, that would be a cut.

Right; I already said that I was not going to debate the wisdom of the policy. All that I questioned was Trump's bloviating promises that he wouldn't ever cut anything.


I am not debating the wisdom of the policy. Essentially Chuck, I am debating your reading comprehension.

You feel like you get to call a modernization and simplification effort regarding billing and reimbursement in a bureaucracy while spending the same amount of money as a cut. The article you linked to from the Ombudsman controlled issue correcting NPR says that some physicians might get more reimbursement per patient visit.

I dispute that the article you linked to defines a "cut" to the Medicare program.

Trump did not say "we will never cut any reimbursement to your doctor, Millie." he said “I’m not going to cut Social Security like every other Republican and I’m not going to cut Medicare or Medicaid.”

And your linked NPR article does not indicate that he is.

When the article said that physicians were concerned that more complex patients had an economic incentive for doctors to not see them, it pointed out that there is an "add-on" payment they can file for. So the biggest concern less reimbursement seems to be addressed by this same policy and reported on by NPR.

Best as I can tell you view the need for a physician to file for the "add-on" charges for complex patients as a cut to the medicare program.

Was his comment bloviating? Sure. Ill advised? Ok, maybe. Poorly worded? Certainly.

But your claim that the NPR story proves he is cutting Medicare is more of all three.

And if I think after reading the story at the link you provided is so far removed from the claim you think it makes, then everything you link to here suspect and every conclusion you draw I will view with the same suspicion.





Original Mike said...

@Dr Weevil -I believe that WK also made your (very good) point at 9:49.

Francisco D said...

I worry about Althouse and Meade. Chuck seems ready to go postal.

He doesn't even pretend anymore and his anger seems very personal.

Dr Weevil said...

Original Mike:
Thanks! I read the whole thread before writing mine, but it took a long time to write. WK's more succinct explanation must have appeared while I was writing.

Seeing Red said...

I’m still waiting for my $2500 savings from Obamacare and all the jobs it was supposed to create because people were free from the burden and stress of not having to worry about insurance.

The New Normal 2% growth Obama and Pelosi. (While correlation is not causation, maybe there was a teensy part of a reason for The New Normal in my comment, but I’m a deplorable rube .)

I’ve also been assured by an unimpeachable expert that we can’t drill our way out of certain situations.


So your pissed because you want it done, you know it needs to be done and it’s going to get done?


This is just a suggestion, but maybe you should direct your comments to those under a certain age who haven’t lived in the real world (for long) and haven’t lived thru “it depends on what the meaning of “is” is.



Seeing Red said...

You’re pissed.

Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...

I wonder whether or not the lives of poor Americans would get better or worse if all the illegal aliens were deported and went home?


Well, it would certainly increase wage growth.

Original Mike said...

”Well, it would certainly increase wage growth.”

My guess is it would increase a lot, but it’s only a guess. I’d love to see an analysis of the point.

Seeing Red said...


I’m a deplorable rube but not a total ignoramus. I think?



“it depends on what the meaning of “is” is.

“it depends on what the meaning of ‘is’ is.”


Sometimes just lazy to correct.

JAORE said...

Dr. Wevil, you are correct in your discussion of average wage. But, I'd note KW covered the same ground.

mikeski said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
mikeski said...

What was, "I'm quoting NPR"?

It was not the topic of the post.

Or do you think any post containing the word "Trump" a reason to talk about anything and everything he's done?

I guess Ann will have to stop using words like "a" and "the" to keep you on-topic.

Comanche Voter said...

Part of this growth is a knock on effect of the "crumbs" that Pelosi said the deplorables would get. Put a few crumbs in people's pockets, they can spend a bit more, and as a baker can tell you, put some yeast in and the dough will rise. Those crumbs are yeast.

Bay Area Guy said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Chuck said...

mikeski said...
What was, "I'm quoting NPR"?

It was not the topic of the post.

Or do you think any post containing the word "Trump" a reason to talk about anything and everything he's done?

I guess Ann will have to stop using words like "a" and "the" to keep you on-topic.


What it was, was a "burn" according to the second commenter. And I think that second commenter caught the exact sentiment that Althouse was conveying, at least in part. (And the other part wasn't so much of an macroeconomics issue; I don't think that Althouse wanted an economics discussion. It was all about messaging pro-Trump news.)

Bay Area Guy said...

Did you guys see the news today of 4.1% GDP growth?

I mean, this kinda correlates with low unemployment, right?

So, if people are working and producing goods and services, that good news, right?

And, politically speaking, usually the party in power tends to benefit from good economic figures, right? I mean, if the numbers went south, surely Sen. Schumer would be calling this the "Trump Recession," and demanding large government spending increases to "stimulate" the economy.

There's a lot to talk about 4.1% GDP Growth.

Gk1 said...

Lots of butt hurt blue staters on FB now, crimeny. Never saw so much anger over what should be considered good news by everyone.

Dude1394 said...

Wow

"Along with the first estimate of Q2 GDP Growth at 4.1% (exceptionally strong), the BEA increased the Q1 growth rate to 2.2% (previously 2%).

Growth in U.S. exported goods was massive at 13.3% [Table 1, line 17] That is HUGE.
Growth in U.S. imported goods was very small at 1.0% [Table 1, Line 20] That is great.

The combination of massive increases in exports, and minimal growth in imports, led to a net increase in overall GDP from exports of 1.06%. [Table 2, line 45] Let that sink in.

WE DID NOT DEDUCT from GDP growth due to the net result of imports/exports. We actually exported more goods than we imported."

Original Mike said...

”So, if people are working and producing goods and services, that good news, right?”

Not to those who would call it trickle-down, apparently.

The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...

"A smarter person than Chuck would eventually realize that his posts are as tedious and predictable as the responses"

Oh, Chuck realizes it. But he loves the attention.

Jim at said...

If the Democrats care more about the country than about "getting Trump" they will be ...

False antecedent alert.

Original Mike said...

”Oh, Chuck realizes it. But he loves the attention.”

I can think of three motives:
1). He honestly thinks he can persuade. But surely by now he must have realized that his methods are failing.
2). He loves the attention.
3). He can’t help himself.

Not being a mind reader, I don’t know where the truth lies.

Jim at said...

Returning 55 sets of remains doesn't mean that the North Koreans are getting rid of their nuclear weapons. - Freder

Considering Dennis freakin' Rodman was the best the last Administration could do with regards to the Norks, one would think you'd keep your mouth shut about what's happening now.

But, alas ....

walter said...

August 2, 2017
NPR gives Trump some good press: "Stocks have been on a tear since President Trump got elected."
"Optimism over the Trump economic agenda has been riding high on Wall Street and the Dow has been hitting new records lately."

It must hurt to have to say that, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average just surpassed 22,000 for the first time.
Posted by Ann Althouse at 9:00 AM
Tags: financial markets

https://althouse.blogspot.com/2017/08/npr-gives-trump-some-good-press-stocks.html

Pookie Number 2 said...

It's good, in exactly the same way that the 4.9% growth number from 3rd quarter of 2014 was good.

One of my best friends is an econometrician who sincerely believes that GDP growth driven by government spending is as good as that driven by private industry growth.

He doesn’t pretend to be a Life-Long Republican.

Chuck said...

Original Mike said...
”Oh, Chuck realizes it. But he loves the attention.”

I can think of three motives:
1). He honestly thinks he can persuade. But surely by now he must have realized that his methods are failing.
2). He loves the attention.
3). He can’t help himself.

Not being a mind reader, I don’t know where the truth lies.


You left out the one right answer:

4) having voted for Trump, I want to cleanse my soul.

Original Mike said...

I’d say that’s number 3.

Alex said...

Stockpiling? LOL. I didn't stockpile anything and nobody I know did either. 'Stockpiliing for Trump trade war' is another bit of fake news. Don't believe it folks.

MAGA!

Are you tried of winning yet?

Original Mike said...

There are health professionals that can help you with that.

Freder Frederson said...

because new workers tend to be in the bottom half of the wage-distribution.

Do you have any data to support this contention? If you don't your example falls apart. New workers may tend to be in the bottom half of the wage distribution, but not necessarily returning workers or even recent college graduates in high demand fields. Also, a good portion of the "new" jobs could be backfilling for the recently promoted.

And while your explanation might sound plausible, the fact remains that in past periods of low unemployment, wages grew at a pace much higher than inflation indicating even new workers were commanding higher wages. Something is different this time.

Jim at said...

It's good, in exactly the same way that the 4.9% growth number from 3rd quarter of 2014 was good.

Snort. And if anybody dares to suggest Chuck sings the praises of Obama at every opportunity when it comes to what Trump's doing .....

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