Althouse: "The U.S. economy had a blockbuster second quarter, with growth surging to a 4.1 percent pace..."

July 27, 2018

"The U.S. economy had a blockbuster second quarter, with growth surging to a 4.1 percent pace..."

"... the Commerce Department said Friday. That was nearly double the first quarter rate of 2.2 percent and the strongest pace in nearly four years. President Trump has been steadfastly claiming that his policies will catapult the U.S. economy into a much higher rate of growth — 4 percent over the next few years. That would be about double the growth rate in recent years. And it would almost certainly mean a big boost in the standard of living for many Americans, with higher wages and better public services as the government raked in more tax dollars from a booming economy."

I'm quoting NPR.

249 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 249 of 249

Alex said...: So now the left are praying the 3rd quarter GDP declines or they will be in full panic mode for the midterm elections.

Yup, that's your leftists today - rooting against America.

Sounds like treason to me.

Chuck/Freder - how do treason charges taste?; 7/27/18, 1:11 PM
buwaya said...: US Median Household Income - This is the US Census data series, current data is for 2016 (I said it lagged, a lot). The other caveat is the inflation deflator they are using. See my concerns above.

US Median Household Income

Still, for what its worth consider that the trend here seems to have continued on the same trajectory to today. And this is median, not mean, so there is no undue over-weighting of high income percentiles.

As for employment numbers, this is I think the gold standard, of the employment rate of persons 25-54, that is, the most uncontroversial, untainted years of adult employment (no messing with excuses re retirement or schooling).

Employment 25-54

That is, it is improving at about the same rate since 2012. There has been no detectable Trump miracle. This is a good near real time benchmark series as it is only a month lagged. The extremely slow recovery since 2007/8, in this data series, in which the US still has not gotten back to 2008, let alone 2000, is the most telling explanation for Trump. The people were justified in their disgust towards their system of governance.; 7/27/18, 1:18 PM
Freder Frederson said...: Yup, that's your leftists today - rooting against America.

Sounds like treason to me.

First off, show me where I was "rooting against America."

Secondly, even if I was, it wouldn't constitute treason. Look up the definition of treason in the Constitution. What you consider treason, simply isn't.; 7/27/18, 1:19 PM
buwaya said...: " tried to suggest that it was eight years of recession under Obama"

It was eight years of relative stagnation in many ways, for a majority of the people.
Recession, depression, whatever, these are mere words, and arguments over words are idiotic. Look at the data.
Its not clear that we are out of it, so call it a decade.; 7/27/18, 1:22 PM
Seeing Red said...: Neither is not asking Putin a question.; 7/27/18, 1:23 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: I wonder if Bernie Sanders is for or against 4.1% GDP growth?; 7/27/18, 1:32 PM
Freder Frederson said...: Recession, depression, whatever, these are mere words

They are not "mere words". They have very specific definitions and we need to stick to those definitions if we are to have an intelligent conversation.; 7/27/18, 1:36 PM
Chuck said...: Alex said...
So now the left are praying the 3rd quarter GDP declines or they will be in full panic mode for the midterm elections.

Yup, that's your leftists today - rooting against America.

Sounds like treason to me.

Chuck/Freder - how do treason charges taste?

I started off this latest session of bullying on the Althouse blog by saying that I liked the news and that it was good.

So how does "Dumbfuck who can't read" taste to you?; 7/27/18, 1:39 PM
Seeing Red said...: They are not "mere words". They have very specific definitions and we need to stick to those definitions if we are to have an intelligent conversation.

Recession is when your neighbor loses his job.

depression is when you lose your job.

It depends on what the meaning of “is” is.; 7/27/18, 1:44 PM
Michael said...: The risks of overheating and overshooting inflation are much higher than the risks of a recession. It is sad to see the stern faces of the left as they explain how temporary this burst is, how their sad is barely disguised. There will be no 2018 recession. Sorry, progs.; 7/27/18, 1:51 PM
buwaya said...: "They are not "mere words". They have very specific definitions and we need to stick to those definitions if we are to have an intelligent conversation."

You need to argue data with data, not words.
Words are stupid things, to be used when there is nothing better.; 7/27/18, 1:52 PM
hstad said...: Great News for the economy and its people! B

But am very disgusted with this comment from NPR: "...better public services as the government raked in more tax dollars from a booming economy."

Really, "better public services" from the "government"? In what dream world do these people live. I guess they believe in the old saying: “Trust me, I’m from the government and I’m here to help you”? LOL - sure help put your hand in my pocket!; 7/27/18, 1:55 PM
Ignorance is Bliss said...: Chuck said...

I started off this latest session of bullying on the Althouse blog...

Duly noted.; 7/27/18, 2:00 PM
FullMoon said...: Original Mike said...
”Oh, Chuck realizes it. But he loves the attention.”

I can think of three motives:
1). He honestly thinks he can persuade. But surely by now he must have realized that his methods are failing.
2). He loves the attention.
3). He can’t help himself.

Not being a mind reader, I don’t know where the truth lies.

You left out the one right answer:

4) having voted for Trump, I want to cleanse my soul.

I am beginning to think Chuckie lost money on one of Trumps bankruptcies.
Together with his Bernie Maddow investments and the housing market crash, his wife lost all respect for him and split.
Would explain his propr obsession with physically harming little bitty Greta van Sustern and his general sexism and misogyny.
Like others here, I was surprised when he slipped and let hiss racism show one time.
He has done a good job of concealing it since.

No reply necessary Chuck. Not insults, simply observations and my opinion. Other than sexism, racism lack of any sense of decency, I find you to be A-ok. Would def have drinks and shoot some pool or play ping pong or something wit ya.; 7/27/18, 2:02 PM
Rick said...: Look up the definition of treason in the Constitution. What you consider treason, simply isn't.

Finally a left winger endorses originalism.

Any port in a storm.; 7/27/18, 2:10 PM
Rick said...: I am beginning to think Chuckie lost money on one of Trumps bankruptcies.

Did Trump have a Law School? That would explain it!; 7/27/18, 2:11 PM
FullMoon said...: Titty Twister said:
Nope; the point wasn't to sing Obama praises. The point was to illustrate that the Trumpist hype for today's growth number has a history. A recent history.

The thing is, all the left wing and anti Trump genius's who wanted Trump to be a failure predicted a worse economy than ever and doom and gloom in the future. So, any growth at all is a positive whether it is minimal or better.
Naturally, still plenty of doom and gloom regarding Trump gonna happen 'someday".; 7/27/18, 2:13 PM
FullMoon said...: Look up the definition of treason in the Constitution. What you consider treason, simply isn't.

Finally a left winger endorses originalism.

Any port in a storm.
Treason not done being redefined yet.
Like rape, it gonna lose the severity of the original definition.; 7/27/18, 2:15 PM
Drago said...: "Paul Krugman republican" Chuck: "I started off this latest session of bullying on the Althouse blog by saying that I liked the news and that it was good."

LOL

(Wink wink)...; 7/27/18, 2:30 PM
Rick said...: Like rape, it gonna lose the severity of the original definition.

When Obama was President criticizing an economic policy was "rooting against America". Now that roles have reversed the definitions tighten.

Notably Freder hasn't objected to those who call Trump or his supporters traitors though even the most idiotic accusations would not meet the constitutional definition even if we ignore reality. If it weren't for double standards Freder wouldn't have any standards at all.; 7/27/18, 2:35 PM
Francisco D said...: "The only reason that I want Obama to get credit, is to make sure that Trump doesn't get credit that he doesn't deserve. And to correct some of the innumerable fantasies that envelope TrumpWorld."

LOL!

Good news for Chuck: The Trump stock market dropped 0.3% today.

Bad news for Chuck: The Trump stock market is up for the week.

Your hero had regression to the mean in his favor, but produced historically poor economic "recovery" results.

Trump is under constant legal and MSM investigation, but the market 40%+ under his brief administration.; 7/27/18, 3:27 PM
BUMBLE BEE said...: Seeing Red 9:42 AM Your point on the democrats' congressional control does put those who haven't "ripened" at a disadvantage. Taking the historical view from FDR, my friend laid it out thus, "Democrats complaining about the bullshit laws? most likely was Democrats that passed 'em".
I work in an industry serving the mega-rich. They spend money, lots of it. The tradesmen of value to them, do quite well. They, in turn, spend money. When wealthy stop spending money, it shows all the way down to the grocery baggers. Disposable income is king. Harm that king, you got problems. Chose your college wisely.; 7/27/18, 4:09 PM
Michael McNeil said...: See, one of your heroes, Bill Clinton, popularized the saying that I believe originated with Albert Einstein, to the effect that “the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.”

Einstein neither originated nor even just said or wrote that motto. As Albert Einstein's Wikiquote article observes in this regard:

Variously attributed also to Benjamin Franklin and Mark Twain. The earliest known occurrence, and probable origin, is from a 1981 text from Narcotics Anonymous: “Insanity is repeating the same mistakes and expecting different results.”

(/unQuote)

––––
1981 is long after Einstein's death in 1955.; 7/27/18, 4:16 PM
Rusty said...: "The other day, another Trump-fan Althouse commenter tried to suggest that it was eight years of recession under Obama. Now again, I voted for Bush/McCain/Romney. But it is just untrue that it was eight years of recession under Obama. The only reason that I want Obama to get credit, is to make sure that Trump doesn't get credit that he doesn't deserve. And to correct some of the innumerable fantasies that envelope TrumpWorld."

Jims number was wrong that figure was later adjusted down to something like 3.1 percent. One of the few Obama quarters in eight years that was positive. Obama had more failing quarters than not.(less than 2%)
How come Obama didn't do what Trump did if he wanted to help the economy?
Under Obama. record unemployment. Under Trump record employment. Under Obama. record number of people on welfare. Under Trump. record number of people off welfare. Undeer Obama. Black youth unemployment approaching 75% under Trump. Black youth unemployment less than 50%
Obama, like FDR, worked hard to ensure the recession would last as long as it could.

You only demean yourself, Chuck.; 7/27/18, 4:40 PM
Freder Frederson said...: Notably Freder hasn't objected to those who call Trump or his supporters traitors though even the most idiotic accusations would not meet the constitutional definition even if we ignore reality.

As I pointed out in an earlier thread, I have been called a traitor so many times in this forum that I have very little sympathy when the shoe is on the other foot.

However, I do think throwing accusations of treason around is silly, especially considering how infrequently Americans have been charged with treason (last charge was for actions in World War II).; 7/27/18, 4:41 PM
James K said...: Not sure if anyone has pointed it out already, but that the couple of higher numbers under Obama four years ago occurred immediately after a quarter of negative growth. Overall growth for 2014 was 2.7%.; 7/27/18, 4:45 PM
Francisco D said...: "Einstein neither originated nor even just said or wrote that motto. As Albert Einstein's Wikiquote article observes in this regard:

Variously attributed also to Benjamin Franklin and Mark Twain. The earliest known occurrence, and probable origin, is from a 1981 text from Narcotics Anonymous: “Insanity is repeating the same mistakes and expecting different results.”

I haver seen a source that attributes the phrase to an old Chinese proverb.; 7/27/18, 4:55 PM
Chuck said...: Rusty said...

"The other day, another Trump-fan Althouse commenter tried to suggest that it was eight years of recession under Obama. Now again, I voted for Bush/McCain/Romney. But it is just untrue that it was eight years of recession under Obama. The only reason that I want Obama to get credit, is to make sure that Trump doesn't get credit that he doesn't deserve. And to correct some of the innumerable fantasies that envelope TrumpWorld."

Jims number was wrong that figure was later adjusted down to something like 3.1 percent. One of the few Obama quarters in eight years that was positive. Obama had more failing quarters than not.(less than 2%)
How come Obama didn't do what Trump did if he wanted to help the economy?
Under Obama. record unemployment. Under Trump record employment. Under Obama. record number of people on welfare. Under Trump. record number of people off welfare. Undeer Obama. Black youth unemployment approaching 75% under Trump. Black youth unemployment less than 50%
Obama, like FDR, worked hard to ensure the recession would last as long as it could.

You only demean yourself, Chuck.

You are arguing with me as if I were an Obama fan or supporter. I'm not!

You at also arguing as if I care about you. I don't!

I am not going to defend Obama. He's not on my team, I'm not on his team. Ditto Trump. Trump is doing some things that I rather enjoy; like federal judges, and deregulation. Along with a bunch of stuff that I and seemingly most of the Republicans in the Senate think are quite awful, as with tariffs and trade.

More than anything, no matter how much Trump does that I like, I'd be ashamed to have him on my team. He's like a good player who, off the field, abused women. Or who took performance enhancing drugs, then lied about it, then was proven to have taken them. If my team were to stand for anything at all, it would have to be after we rejected a person like that.; 7/27/18, 5:25 PM
Robert Cook said...: "The U.S. economy had a blockbuster second quarter, with growth surging to a 4.1 percent pace..."
"... the Commerce Department said Friday."

Aye...there's the rub. Trump's Commerce Department says "Trump's Winning!"

"That was nearly double the first quarter rate of 2.2 percent and the strongest pace in nearly four years. President Trump has been steadfastly claiming that his policies will catapult the U.S. economy into a much higher rate of growth — 4 percent over the next few years. That would be about double the growth rate in recent years. And it would almost certainly mean a big boost in the standard of living for many Americans, with higher wages and better public services as the government raked in more tax dollars from a booming economy."

I'll believe it when I see a big boost in the standard of living in America that is not founded on debt, (i.e., credit cards). That will require substantial increases in wages, as well as significant reduction in current personal debt levels.; 7/27/18, 5:25 PM
tcrosse said...: "I say it's spinach, and I say the hell with it."; 7/27/18, 5:29 PM
Chuck said...: Robert Cook I found this to be a useful little 1/2 page summary of today's numbers:

https://www.axios.com/trump-gross-domestic-product-increase-4-percent-da1be80f-bf30-4556-8ef3-03a2ddb102ac.html; 7/27/18, 5:31 PM
Matt Sablan said...: But how many jobs were created or saved?; 7/27/18, 5:55 PM
buwaya said...: Household debt to GDP ratio

Houshold Debt to GDP Ratio

This peaked @ 2006-7 I think. It fell steeply during the recession and has remained flat since, at just under 80% of GDP.; 7/27/18, 5:56 PM
buwaya said...: " If my team were to stand for anything at all"

In the game being played, the "team" stands for nothing.
It is a delusion that it does.
A failed "team" is a failure in every way, especially with respect to its posterity.

History is a nasty teacher, and it has distasteful lessons.

Success justifies itself - Castro said that history would absolve him - and he would have been right, if history had indeed absolved him.

Ideological purity does not ensure survival or stability.; 7/27/18, 6:05 PM
Iowan2 said...: Quibble the numbers and fight over predictions of future results. The discussion I never heard today is what will any Dem do different and get even better results? For that matter, what Republican. ( all the while with the media lying and a special counsel appointed with no crime indentifed); 7/27/18, 6:15 PM
Rick said...: I have been called a traitor so many times in this forum that I have very little sympathy when the shoe is on the other foot.

Right, you only think it's a problem when you're the target. Similarly you only care what the constitution says when you agree with it. Somewhat amusingly I think the definition of treason is literally the only such instance.; 7/27/18, 6:15 PM
buwaya said...: The proper answer to a complaint about "winning wrong" and a preference to "losing right" is one of my abuelitas favorite phrases. A wise and brave woman, but a very difficult character.

This is a bit of obsolete Spanish slang - "consuelo de bobo" - a fools consolation.
Its obsolete in modern colloquial Spanish, but has persisted as a very common Filipinism.

It means to take absurd satisfaction in being a loser through some meaningless benefit, a poor trade, an insubstantial gesture, while leaving the true prize to the true victor. Abuelita saw with laser-straight precision through excuses and obfuscation, and she took no prisoners.; 7/27/18, 6:34 PM
Drago said...: The most enjoyable part of this desperate attempt by LLR Chuck and his leftist to basically call these GDP numbers "crumbs" is that literally no one that matters pays the slightest attention ti these dummies and smear merchants.

How absolutely glorious!

Sorry Chuckie! You'll have to find new and better ways to console your democrat compadres!

LOL

Perhaps you too can start digging into Kavanaughs wife or better yet, reprise your role as Chief Rumor Monger-er against Kavanaughs children.

Yoy've already demonstrated strong capabilities in that particular area...; 7/27/18, 6:50 PM
Drago said...: Iowan2: "The discussion I never heard today is what will any Dem do different and get even better results?"

They've got nothing.

Why do you think LLR Chuck is in such a panicked state?

And, once again, it is glorious.

Every single prediction by the lefties/LLR Chuck has exploded in their faces...just as we all knew it had to.

Chuck and his lefty/dem allies are simply that dumb and blinded.; 7/27/18, 6:53 PM
Jaq said...: Before going, I felt squeamish at being in the crowd scene at a party for the man who kicked open the Pandora’s box of American fears. Almost afraid. But hearing him, I better understood his appeal. He has a vulnerable charm, at times a humanity. He pandered shamelessly to his audience.

“We need steel,” he said. “We need steel plants. And to see an old, big monster plant like this re-opening — that is an honor. I look at the faces of you people; I could be one of you. I like you guys. I could be one of you.”

That struck me as either sincere or an amazing facsimile. The workers, for their part, couldn’t give him a standing ovation because they never sat down.

I left the hall thinking: Donald Trump is going to be re-elected in 2020. The Democrats don’t have anyone who can touch him. Bank on it. Don’t hate me for being the one to tell you.. - Chicago Sun Times; 7/27/18, 6:57 PM
buwaya said...: Trump has Garcia Lorca's "duende"

a definition of the duende: ‘A mysterious force that everyone feels and no philosopher has explained.’

Or it can't be explained. Just felt. He's not my leader, but yours, but I get him.

duende; 7/27/18, 7:16 PM
Jon Ericson said...: Roger Stone. lulz; 7/27/18, 9:27 PM
Michael K said...: I'll believe it when I see a big boost in the standard of living in America that is not founded on debt,

That will never happen. It is not Trump's fault or the fault of anyone but the Socialists who have drive US policy since 1932.

The Federal Reserve may be the culprit or politicians who took half of Keynes' theories and ran with it.

They bought votes with debt and would still do so if permitted.; 7/27/18, 11:23 PM
Bad Lieutenant said...: rcocean said...
There's NEVER been one good reason for Mueller to have gotten a blank Check for a mission statement. Rosenstein could have easily, gave him an extremely narrow one that only focused on Russian Collusion and dealt with counter-intelligence.

I had faintly hoped at the outset that the open ended nature of the inquiry was intended to provide an indirect route to delve into D complicity, eg investigating the rigging of the D primaries. If so, it sure is indirect.

Buwaya said...

That is, it is improving at about the same rate since 2012. There has been no detectable Trump miracle.

There will be elements of the miraculous, if by sufficient growth, we can dig ourselves out of the $21T hole we've dug ourselves, particularly if excessive pain can be avoided in doing so. Meanwhile, it's early days yet.

I did enjoy your reference to "duende," which, as you say and I think have said before, is evidently untranslatable.

Chuck said...

You left out the one right answer:

4) having voted for Trump, I want to cleanse my soul.

Assumes facts not in evidence. What have you ever said here that argues for your possession of a soul? I find you particularly soulless, in fact, and if you personality is in fact the product of a soul, it must be a sad thing indeed.

Blogger Michael McNeil said...

Einstein neither originated nor even just said or wrote that motto.

I don't think that's terribly germane, but thanks for the Trivial Pursuit wedge.

Francisco D said...

I haver seen a source that attributes the phrase to an old Chinese proverb.

Thanks Frisco!

Chuck said...

He's like a good player

So he should be retained.

If my team were to stand for anything at all, it would have to be after we rejected a person like that.

I'm sorry, what do sports teams stand for?

Besides, it's not your team anymore. Now it's our team. We have taken it away from you and fired the manager, or perhaps coaches is nearer the mark.

You demonstrate poor reading comprehension so let me try saying this in small words :

You don't run things around here anymore. We used to take what you gave us. Now you take what we give you. Understand? I mean, get it?

Freder Fredersen said...

especially considering how infrequently Americans have been charged with treason (last charge was for actions in World War II).

Do you mind factual corrections, FF? Because you're mistaken. Adam Gadahn was the last, an American turncoat for Al Queda.; 7/27/18, 11:36 PM
Rusty said...: "You are arguing with me as if I were an Obama fan or supporter. I'm not!"

I just take for granted that you lie.

"You at also arguing as if I care about you. I don't!"

And yet you responded.
No. I'm arguing with you like you're a lying dick.; 7/28/18, 7:51 AM
Jaq said...: Is it “pandering” if you say the same thing to steel workers that you say to everybody else?

I guess that the writer figures that steel workers should just accept their economic doom and anybody who tells them that they are not doomed to a world of dumped Chinese steel, whether it’s imported raw, or in the form of parts from NAFTA countries, and anybody who tells them different must be “pandering.”

For all of the evidence to the contrary, what is astounding about liberals is their iron faith in their belief that they know better than anybody about everything.; 7/28/18, 7:56 AM
Jaq said...: Chuck is not a Democrat, but he repeats their talking points on the same cues they do, and repeats them flawlessly.

While the Democrat party is on the verge of splitting between the socialists, and the more sane centrist Democrats, Chuck is busy trying to drive a wedge in the Republicans to make sure that the Republicans don’t have any chance of picking up that huge tranche of sane Democrats who won’t vote for socialists.

The ironic thing about the Democrats’ loss is that Hillary couldn’t pick up her husband’s centrist voters, the ones that he appealed to that won them the presidency twice.; 7/28/18, 8:02 AM
Freder Frederson said...: Do you mind factual corrections, FF? Because you're mistaken. Adam Gadahn was the last, an American turncoat for Al Queda.

I do if I am wrong, but you are mistaken. He was not charged with treason (although there are some websites that day he was)but with providing aid to terrorists.; 7/28/18, 12:44 PM
hstad said...: One quote included in the GDP number release was "....business surveys have been strong, and so investment is likely to have held up well..." What we all forget, the tax cut had an large benefit for businesses. If you buy new equipment for up to $2.5 million, businesses are able to depreciate this item 100% in the first year. As a financial consultant, I've been slammed with business this year because of this one item. Of course the MSM are ignorant of this issue and when reported have no idea the benefit this creates in manufacturing and jobs this year.; 7/28/18, 2:51 PM