July 2, 2018

"López Obrador’s win comes after widespread disillusionment with outgoing Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto’s ruling PRI party, which was in power from 1929 to 2000..."

"... and regained the presidency in 2012. Mexico’s other establishment party, the conservative National Action Party (PAN), has also had a hard time shaking off criticism for not handling the country’s widespread violence and official corruption. PRI's José Antonio Meade and candidate Ricardo Anaya, a former president of the PAN party who represented a coalition of left- and right-wing parties, both conceded the election to López Obrador on Sunday night."

Love that name, Meade.

That's from the Politico article on the Mexican election. The winner, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, founded a new political party only 4 years ago.
López Obrador’s victory leaves the two traditional parties reeling, as candidates from his Morena party were also poised to gain a stronger foothold in local, state and congressional elections....

“It conceptually makes sense — Mexican voters say, ‘We’ve tried the PRI, we’ve tried the PAN, let’s try something new,'” Carlos Gutierrez, former Commerce secretary during George W. Bush’s administration, told POLITICO. “It’s the allure of change, because people are fed up.”
From the Wikipedia article about the Morena party:
The National Regeneration Movement (Spanish: Movimiento Regeneración Nacional, MORENA) is a left-wing political party in Mexico...

The 2018 Mexican general election will be the first presidential election where MORENA will participate. MORENA is in a coalition with left-wing Labor Party (PT) and right-wing Social Encounter Party (PES) under the name "Juntos Haremos Historia."
"Juntos Haremos Historia" means "Together We'll Make History." How does it work to have a right-wing party in a coalition with a left-wing party? "Social Encounter Party (Spanish: Partido Encuentro Social, PES) is a Mexican conservative political party established on the national level in 2014":
The Social Encounter Party was founded in 2006 by Dr. Hugo Eric Flores Cervantes, a pastor of a Neo-Pentecostal church that supported Felipe Calderón in the 2006 presidential election.... The party is primarily composed of evangelical Christians, though it has declared itself as "not religious" in character.... The PES tends to include many strands of Christian humanist thinking and is generally socially conservative, though Flores has stated that it is a "family" party....It opposes same-sex marriage and was responsible for reforms to the Baja California constitution in 2008 that established marriage as "between one man and one woman".... Likewise, it opposes abortion and pornographic magazines....
ADDED: From the NYT article about the election results:
Mr. López Obrador will inherit an economy that has seen only modest growth over the last few decades, and one of his biggest challenges will be to convince foreign investors that Mexico will remain open for business....

Though political rivals have painted him as a radical on par with Hugo Chavez, the former socialist leader of Venezuela, Mexico’s president-elect has vowed not to raise the national debt and to maintain close relations with the United States.

Mr. López Obrador, who is commonly referred to by his initials, AMLO, has a history of working with the private sector, and has appointed a respected representative to handle negotiations the North American Free Trade Agreement.

“Today AMLO is a much more moderate, centrist politician who will govern the business community with the right hand, and the social sectors and programs with the left,” said Antonio Sola, who created the effective fear campaign that branded Mr. López Obrador as a danger to Mexico in the 2006 election he lost. “The great difference between then and now is that the dominant emotion among voters is fury,” Mr. Sola said. “And anger is much stronger than fear.”

99 comments:

Leland said...

How does it work to have a right-wing party in a coalition with a left-wing party?

Sounds like why the socialist worker's party was called right wing. And the constructs look the same here; a left wing progressive view on handling business and labor with a social conservative view on religious grounds. I'm sure this time it will work though, because it will be implemented properly...

David Begley said...

Now would be a good time to cut off foreign aid except for military and police support to fight the drug cartels. That is how Mexico will pay for the Wall.

Birkel said...

AMLO is going to turn Mexico into Venezuela.

Tank said...

Immigration You don't want the people who voted for this voting in the USA. Unless you want to have the USA be Venezuela.

Daniel Jackson said...

"How does it work to have a right-wing party in a coalition with a left-wing part.y?"

Ask Israel

Henry said...

This was Fujimori's coalition in Peru way back in time.

Henry said...

That didn't end well.

Breezy said...

Awesome - Venezuela right next door. Can we please have that wall now? People who voted for this guy need to live with their decision.

Gahrie said...

López Obrador will almost certainly follow the Hugo Chavez playbook.

David Begley said...

Building the Wall is even more important now. As socialism is implemented, the economy will collapse and the invasion will become a flood.

jaydub said...

If you think there’s widespread disappointment now, hold AMLO’s cerveza and watch him get to work.

Robert Cook said...

"Immigration You don't want the people who voted for this voting in the USA. Unless you want to have the USA be Venezuela."

Oh, for god's sake. The limits of paranoid imagination are boundless.

gilbar said...
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Ralph L said...

How much worse can some parts of Mexico get?

He sounds like the Macron of Mexico. Didn't his popularity sink like a stone soon after the election?

gilbar said...

the Good News is that Every person that voted for AMLO is legally able to vote in California!

exhelodrvr1 said...

This time it'll work!!

FIDO said...

Yes Cookie, after the last FIFTY failures of Socialist States, and the 3 Scandanaviqn Semi Successes, why would we assume that the NEW socialist experiment to the south will suddenly be a failure? (/sarc)

I can fix Venezuela. Move all the Venezuelans to Sweden and all the (white) Swedes to Venezuela.

In 10 years, Sweden will be ruined. And in 5 years, Venezuela will be fixed.

Because what works in Sweden isn't Socialism. It's Swedes.

And when you add the racism and corruption of the Spanish Administration, with the Bannana Republic Client/Patron system of he who has the guns makes the rules, covered with SOCIALISM, and you have a system so corrosive that it makes hydroflouric acid look like skin cream in comparison.

It's amazing that you can see dozens of these exact same failures in Latin and South America and you still willfully refuse to connect the dots.

But you still got the brass ones to castigate anyone less willfully doctrinaire than yourself. So props for that.

Robert Cook said...

FIDO, you completely miss my point. The "paranoid imagination" is what it takes to imagine a flood of Mexicans successfully "invading" our country in such numbers that they will vote (despite not being citizens) and sweep into office Hugo Chavez, Jr.!

Beyond being paranoid, it's dumb beyond belief.

Paco Wové said...

FIDO: Cook's worldview depends on refusing to connect the dots.

Michael said...

Robert Cook
Indeed. You are quite correct. The comment was absurd.

rehajm said...

Can we please have that wall now?

Now that's there's going to be a left wing utopia next door it occurred to me the wall has the unintended consequence of making it more difficult for American lefties to get there.

Left Bank of the Charles said...

Social Encounter Party, now there’s a euphemistic name, and for a right wing party?

FIDO said...

Well, considering the new socialist bent of the Democrats today and their unacknowledged default position of open borders, and this 'image' is probably just as popular in Lefty circles as they are in Rightward ones.

The difference is one side views masses of Mexican with glee, the other with horror.

But my 'elaborate paranoid fantasies' begin and end with 'Mexico becoming an even larger failure and more criminal immigrants coming Norde...save they are even more desperate.

Actually, it doesn't take any paranoia OR imagination to make that prediction.

Because it is a probability. But only if you believe in 'cause and effect' and are aware of the toxic practice of 'motor voter' laws.

MadisonMan said...

I have to be south of the border later this year for work. I hope things are going smoothly then.

Not Sure said...

"...and sweep into office Hugo Chavez, Jr.!"

Yes, totally absurd. It'll be Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Paddy O said...

“Mexico’s main problem is corruption. It’s the primary cause of inequality, economic inequality. Corruption, too, unleashed the insecurity and violence,” López Obrador said at the close of his campaign here.

The firebrand former mayor of Mexico City has sold himself as an anti-corruption crusader, going so far as calling corruption a “cancer that is destroying this country.”


I entirely agree with this. I hope that Obrador also genuinely agrees with this.

Seeing Red said...

Though political rivals have painted him as a radical on par with Hugo Chavez, the former socialist leader of Venezuela, Mexico’s president-elect has vowed not to raise the national debt and to maintain close relations with the United States.

Too bad that’s not what he said. Progs gotta Progs and down Mexico goes.

We’re not ready.

Meade said...

"Love that name, Meade"

You might be a bot.

From Wikipedia:

"It has been reported that about 94% of the followers of Meade were bots.[12][13] These bots have been referred to as Peñabots, although since Meade started his campaign the term seems to be evolving towards Meadebot. When Antonio Meade presented himself as a candidate for the 2018 presidential election, his social media accounts such as "@MovimientoMEADE" (created by the PRI's official account @PRI_Nacional), obtained a huge quantity of followers far too quick. Some users noticed and brought it to attention, after investigations it was reported 94% of such followers were bots (702,000 out of 747,000), and the account was eliminated from Twitter after 20 hours. The fake accounts used the hashtags #YoConMeade and #Meade18, further revealed was that Meade's official account on Twitter, @JoseAMeadeK has 25% bots (216,000 fake followers out of the 981,000).[12][13] These numbers, however, are lower than the amount of fake followers other Mexican opinion leaders such as Carmen Aristegui (38% fake followers)[14] and Denise Dresser (48% fake followers)[15] have according to Twitter Audit."

Mexican bots all the way down.

Seeing Red said...

Oh, for god's sake. The limits of paranoid imagination are boundless.

Only in Cookie’s mind is listening to what they say and watch them implement failure for the past 100 years is paranoia. It’ll work this time!

Sebastian said...

"How does it work to have a right-wing party in a coalition with a left-wing party?"

Easy. The "right-wing party" bends over. George Will/Bill Kristol-style.

I'm sure they got guarantees on social issues, Bart Stupak-style.

Seeing Red said...

Mexican bots all the way down.

Doing the job Americans won’t do.

Seeing Red said...

We bombed Berlin with the candy bomber. We may have to bomb them with toilet paper down the road.

Seeing Red said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Seeing Red said...

At least they’ll still have access to the free breast pumps Obamacare allotted for.

Hagar said...

A quote from an AP article in today's Journal: "... since Mexico began its transition to democracy 30 years ago."

MikeR said...

Hilarious. Just as Europe (and the US) have moved decisively towards anti-immigration parties, Mexico is choosing a total pro-emigration party. Wonder why?

Robert Cook said...

"Only in Cookie’s mind is listening to what they say and watch them implement failure for the past 100 years is paranoia. It’ll work this time!"

Someone is not paying attention!

Seeing Red said...

Via Insty: meanies! Don’t they know how tolerant they should be?

Starting at the age of 1, “ghetto children” must be separated from their families for at least 25 hours a week, not including nap time, for mandatory instruction in “Danish values,” including the traditions of Christmas and Easter, and Danish language. Noncompliance could result in a stoppage of welfare payments. Other Danish citizens are free to choose whether to enroll children in preschool up to the age of six.

Denmark’s government is introducing a new set of laws to regulate life in 25 low-income and heavily Muslim enclaves, saying that if families there do not willingly merge into the country’s mainstream, they should be compelled....

Seeing Red said...

Merkel...lololololol

She’s on her way out, too.

brylun said...

Commenters hold up Venezuela to Mr. Cook and he refuses to explain why you can't blame Venezuela's plight on socialism. In fact, he even refuses to acknowledge that there is a plight in Venezuela.

Truly in a fantasy world!

Point Mr. Cook to Stalinism, Maoism or the Khmer Rouge and ask him to explain why socialism wasn't the reason for millions of deaths.

Crickets!

Focus Mr. Cook on the normal human motivation to work harder when you get to keep the fruits of your labor, and on the corollary, where "Atlas Shrugs."

Mr. Cook's answer: Because!

Please Mr. Cook, can you explain how socialism leads to prosperity?

Seeing Red said...

They’re falling in line. Is there anything Trump can’t do?

sykes.1 said...

AMLO's campaign platform is hard-left Chavez style, including renationalization of the oil industry and open borders with the US. He will take Mexico down the path Venezuela has followed. We will either have to seal the border totally, no trade, no people going back and forth, no immigration, or we will have to occupy and govern the country.

mockturtle said...

“Today AMLO is a much more moderate, centrist politician who will govern the business community with the right hand, and the social sectors and programs with the left,”

Too bad he doesn't have a third hand to deal with the drug cartels.

mockturtle said...

Cookie, if you don't believe that illegal aliens in CA voted in the last election, you are the 'dumb' one. While it probably wasn't their idea to do so, they were actively recruited by the Democratic Party.

TheDopeFromHope said...

Mexicans had better lock up the zoo animals. They'll be on the menu soon.

Michael said...

Jeez people, relax. You sound like Hillary supporters on election night, weeping and gnashing teeth. AMLO's rhetoric and his promise not to occupy the presidential palace in solidarity with the poor is just part of the wonderful Mexican novela. Not much will change. He is not Chavez and his rhetoric is just that. He will no doubt tinker around the edges of oil but has promised to honor contracts that are in place, so a promise of no take over of private operations. The rest of his promises are like those Bernie made, pretty but pretty impossible.

Birkel said...

Yeah, Michael, he will honor the contracts in the oil industry and then claim the other side has not honored their obligations, and AMLO will then (more in sadness than in anger) be forced to nationalize the oil industry. He just won't have a choice because of the hoarders and the wreckers.

The script is written. The actors play their roles perfectly. It's a sequel.

Michael K said...

to maintain close relations with the United States.

Yes, by moving here.

The rest of his promises are like those Bernie made, pretty but pretty impossible.

I agree with this but his supporters might not agree, I remember Echevarria who promised the peasants they could have the land owned by foreigners.

Right after the election they started invading farms and American's second homes in Baja. They made the mistake of believing him.

He promised the world but was deeply corrupt, like most Mexican politicians.

Once Echeverría became president, he embarked on a massive program of populist political and economic reform, nationalizing the mining and electrical industries, redistributing private land in the states of Sinaloa and Sonora to peasants,

AMLO promised but some Mexicans believe those promises, sort of like Republicans in 2010.

RichardJohnson said...

I am skeptical about AMLO's calls against corruption. AMLO was a PRI honcho for years. The PRI had institutionalized corruption for decades. As such, AMLO was complicit in the PRI's corruption.

A further point about skepticism about AMLO is that he comes from the left. He left the PRI in the 1980s because the PRI was turning right, with less government control of the economy. Had the PRI not done so, Mexico's economy would have collapsed. While the conduct of the Mexican economy in the last 20-30 years leaves something to be desired,the Mexican economy would be a lot worse today than if the PRI hadn't turned rightward.

But, you never know. Humala was elected President of Peru in 2011.He did so with the support of Hugo Chavez. Humala, instead of instituting Chavista economic policies, maintained the free market policies of his predecessors, and the Peruvian economy kept growing.

While Mario Vargas Llosa campaigned for free market policies in Peru's 1990 election, and Fujimori did not, Fujimori's economic policies while President were very similar to Vargas Llosa's free market policy proposals.

Reality may induce AMLO to govern differently from how he campaigned. Time will tell.

Caroline Walker said...

A good friend of mine is a dallas transplant from Mexico City. AMLO is Chavez. Saturation vote buying.

RichardJohnson said...

Robert Cook
FIDO, you completely miss my point. The "paranoid imagination" is what it takes to imagine a flood of Mexicans successfully "invading" our country in such numbers that they will vote (despite not being citizens) and sweep into office Hugo Chavez, Jr.!

Voting despite not being citizens- consider voter registration in California from the DMV. Voting leftist- look at California today versus 20 years ago.

Birkel said...

RichardJohnson,

Robert Cook thinks your acknowledging observed facts is paranoid. Robert Cook has carefully avoided such behavior and he wishes you could live up to his standard.

Henry said...

Voting leftist- look at California today versus 20 years ago.

I don't think California's leftists needed much help.

Henry said...

@RichardJohnson -- One of the more interesting aspects of Fujimori's race against Llosa is that Fujimori was able to leverage the support of the Peru's evangelicals in a way that mystified Llosa. They were a small, poor, marginalized demographic. The striving that led them to convert to protestantism in a Catholic country seemed to align with the Fujimori phenomenon. Despite Llosa's independent credentials, Fujimori was able to paint him as just another elite.

Llosa makes a pointed critique of Fujimori's free-market reforms, especially in light of Fujimori's aggressive centralization of power and abuse of power.

chuck said...

Sounds a bit like (democratic) fascism. Fascism was/is far more diverse than Communism ever was. Let's see if the trains run on time.

Ray said...

And Trump is renegotiateing NAFTA!

Interesting times...

William said...

Iirc, Chavez didn't govern as Chavez for the first few years. It's gradual, but it gains momentum.......The left in this country are not remarkably sympathetic to Amlo. The New Yorker article I read about him claimed that reaction to Trump's policies helped him get elected. I think the left here realizes that Amlo's policies will most probably be disastrous and wish to find a way to blame the disaster on Trump.

William said...

You can weigh the pros and cons of Fujimori, but he wasn't the ShiningPath. There could have been far worse scenarios in Peru.

RichardJohnson said...

William
Iirc, Chavez didn't govern as Chavez for the first few years. It's gradual, but it gains momentum..

Correct. In his 1998 campaign, Chavez said he wasn't going to nationalize anything. We know how that worked out. In his 1998 campaign, Chavez denounced corruption. We know how THAT worked out. Chavez didn't take control of PDVSA until 2002-2003. We know how that worked out. Chavez didn't shut down opposition television RCTV until 2007- by not renewing its license to broadcast.

Fujimori had his cons, but to his credit his administration captured "President Gonzalo," the head of Shining Path.

BJM said...

So, when will AMLO nationalize Telmex, Telcel and América Móvil?




RichardJohnson said...

“Today AMLO is a much more moderate, centrist politician who will govern the business community with the right hand, and the social sectors and programs with the left,” said Antonio Sola, who created the effective fear campaign that branded Mr. López Obrador as a danger to Mexico in the 2006 election he lost.

AMLO "much more moderate,centrist" than during his previous 40 years in politics? Maybe yes, maybe no. Alan Garcia, in his first term as President of Peru in the 1980s, followed leftist economic policies, with disastrous results. In his second term as President from 2006-2011, he continued the successful free market policies of those who governed Peru from the 1990s on. So, a leopard CAN change his spots.

Time will tell on AMLO, but I am pessimistic.

rcocean said...

Import millions of poor Mexicans and you're importing socialists.

Its why the Democrats support Open Borders.

And eliminating ICE and sanctuary cities.

rcocean said...

Funny how its almost impossible to read the MSM news articles and know the man's SPECIFIC Positions on things.

Bay Area Guy said...

Another reason to build the Wall.

BJM said...

@Birkel:

Mexico nationalized all petroleum reserves, facilities, and foreign oil companies on March 18, 1938 and PeMex been functioning for nearly twenty years as a socialized enterprise. No surprise that With $84.5 billion in bonds outstanding, Pemex is the world’s most indebted oil major.

The reform of five years ago allowed Mexico to auction oil reserves to Royal Dutch Shell and Chevron. Pemex was freed up to focus on assets it was already developing. The government bet was that injections of badly needed capital and the introduction of new technologies through new joint ventures would reverse 13 years of production declines.

As if PeMex's failure to construct refineries to meet demand and costly importation of gasoline from the US, isn't enough of a political headache for the Mexican govt; fuel theft is costing Pemex more than $1.6 billion a year.

For the ruling party, oil is Mexico's third rail, outside contracts keep the flow of refined petroleum products, especially gasoline, into Mexico. D.F. will erupt in protests and riots if prices rise and shortages worsen.

AMLO has few choices and they are all equally bad; he will pivot away from the issue.

buwaya said...

This sort of thing is not predictable.

Fifty years ago, or twenty, and maybe even decade ago, if dealing with a petro-state like Venezuela (and, notably, in Venezuela like few other places, the military was leftist, and this was something that made Chavez), one could be reliably pessimistic, as the old communist religion still held. But outside the US its a dead faith.

Mexico has a very capitalist economy, low level entrepreneurialism is all over, and the lack of effective state control of the economy undermines any grand ideas. Mexico is not Venezuela at all, in mind or circumstances. Its already been through several Chavez-periods.

The other model for an outcome is Duterte. Not often brought up in coverage of Philippine politics is the fact that he has been a life-long leftist. He is as far left and third-worldist as Chavez ever was, a protege of actual revolutionary Maoists. His rhetoric has more in common with Chavez than is apparent in US media accounts. But the country is not on-board with this, not even the poorest of the tao, and his supporters (the military, Chinese businessmen, and the common man) indulge him, while disagreeing. As far as ideology goes, they like his nationalism and populism, and discount his communism, and to do him credit he is pragmatic enough to understand that.

Perhaps Lopez Obrador is a populist of that sort.

Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...

when the wave of migration is reversed, lured/retained by this emerging socialist utopia,
there goes another prog voting bloc...
and "who is going to mow our lawns and clean our bathrooms??"

Hammond X. Gritzkofe said...

"...Mexico’s president-elect has vowed...."

Note to Althouse: pls add "vowed" to the list of execrable news-writer words. Alphabetically to follow "forced"* and "garnered."

*Forced: as in "The Almond Joy was sold out so I was forced** to buy Mounds.

**Unless: "A group of machete wielding teen-agers knocked me unconscious seized my wallet, jammed three Mounds bars in my mouth - still unwrapped, mind you - tossed some of my money at the clerk, and dragged my by the hair past the checkout counter and out the door."

Yancey Ward said...

When do the elections for the legislative branch occur?

hombre said...

AMLO thinks it's a human right for Mexicans to emigrate to the US. Yippee!

buwaya said...

The optimistic way to look at AMLO's rhetoric is to see it as an expression of Mexican nationalism. The "bad guys" to any Mexican nationalist of any ideology, since the 1860's, has been the US. The only plausible foreign threat to the Mexican nation. There is no other "other".
Its a fantasy, but one must have fantasies.

Being anti-US is inherited from ones great-great grandparents.

So, maybe, as the Filipinos would say, "laway lang 'yan" - its just spit.

But maybe not.

Michael said...

Commenters should be mindful that the bulk, the overwhelming majority, of illegals are from Central America and not Mexico. The Mexican diaspora essentially ended years ago. As noted, Mexico is essentially capitalist and though not thriving it provides opportunities that did not exist a decade or so ago. The South remains poor and unattended to by the federal government but that could change.
Trump should embrace AMLO and recognize the help Mexico has given in staunching the Central American inflow to an unrecognized degree. He would do well to invite AMLO to Washington at the earliest opportunity. Trump is disliked in Mexico but he can alter that relatively easily.

Michael said...

Buwaya is correct that there is longstanding animus towards the US but oddly not to US citizens. I have spent a fair amount of time in Mexico from Quintana Roo to Oaxaca to Sinaloa and the northern states and have never had a bad experience. I have never traveled to a more amazing place, a wonder everywhere.

Yancey Ward said...

For me, the test for Obrador will come in 6 years when he is supposed to be ineligible for reelection. If you start seeing moves before then to "abolish" the 1 term law, then you will have your answer about Obrador.

Angle-Dyne, Angelic Buzzard said...

Robert Cook: FIDO, you completely miss my point. The "paranoid imagination" is what it takes to imagine a flood of Mexicans successfully "invading" our country in such numbers that they will vote (despite not being citizens) and sweep into office Hugo Chavez, Jr.!

Beyond being paranoid, it's dumb beyond belief.


Only if one infers that the "dumb paranoid" means that this will happen the day after tomorrow. But that would be the inference of a childish mind.

If U.S. demographics become increasingly "Latin Americanized" over time (a plausible scenario), then what, exactly, is "dumb" or "paranoid" about predicting that its political culture will also become "Latin Americanized" over time? And since throwing up a Chavez now and again is characteristic of such political cultures, then a Chavez being swept into power in some future U.S. is well within the bounds of possibility.

If you think that the influx of 10s of millions of illegal immigrants, the large majority of them from Latin America, hasn't affected the political culture of the U.S. in the last 30 years, "because they can't vote", then "can't connect the dots" hardly begins to describe the limitations of your observational powers.

mockturtle said...

buwaya sez: Being anti-US is inherited from ones great-great grandparents.

It's comforting to know that we have hundreds of thousands of immigrants here who hate our guts.

Angle-Dyne, Angelic Buzzard said...

hombre: AMLO thinks it's a human right for Mexicans to emigrate to the US. Yippee!

AMLO may expressed it with different words (or not), but hasn't that been the official position of the Mexican government/elites for a long time now?

It's just one of those perennial things that doesn't get widely reported in the U.S. press because...well, don't want to rile up the deplorables and have to pretend to support national sovereignty (for Americans, that is), do we? That, and having to pretend to enforce immigration law, is such a bore.

mockturtle said...

Instead of backing down [again] we should issue a warning, loud and clear, in several languages, that anyone illegally crossing our border will be shot. And follow through with it. The rate of entry will plummet.

Seeing Red said...

If you think that the influx of 10s of millions of illegal immigrants, the large majority of them from Latin America, hasn't affected the political culture of the U.S. in the last 30 years, "because they can't vote", then "can't connect the dots" hardly begins to describe the limitations of your observational powers.

+1

mockturtle said...

ICE could be very useful IF they actually did their job. Most illegals who are here just crossed over legally [to 'visit family' or 'go shopping'] and then never return to Mexico. People who don't live near the border may not realize that Mexicans come through the border crossing here in huge numbers every day for many reasons. The local ER is used as a health care clinic by many Mexican citizens.

pfennig said...

Let's not project our own notions onto the election. Mexicans voted the way they did for their own reasons. AMLO potentially represents a break from the failed policies of the inbred political class that has dominated Mexico for decades. He might be the next Hugo Chavez, but if he is able to cut through the bureaucratic buddy system and sloth that has kept the country down for so long, we could potentially see a dynamic creative and powerful capitalistic economy come alive in Mexico rather than a socialist flameout like Venezuela.

Jupiter said...

Michael said...
"Commenters should be mindful that the bulk, the overwhelming majority, of illegals are from Central America and not Mexico. The Mexican diaspora essentially ended years ago."

Why shold commenters be mindful of two "facts" that you just made up? It is true that various Leftist groups have been encouraging Central Americans to illegally enter the US, and the response has been encouraging, if you are a Leftist hoping to destroy the US. But vast amounts of money are still wired to Mexico every month. You think it's the Norwegian diaspora sending all that money to Mexico?

Tyrone Slothrop said...

Meade. Does he pronounce it may-AH-day?

Michael K said...

Mexico is certainly odd. I used to spend quite a bit of time in Ensenada and had friends there,. We used to get quite a few pateints from Ensenada which is a prosperous town, more prosperous than Tijuana.

The city hospital in Ensenada was a dump and a groups of us worked to upgrade it.

Mazatlan was a more middle class city but medical facilities were still primitive.

I don't go there anymore and would not take my family, like I did for my 60th birthday.

I don't think AMLO will get anything good accomplished. The cartels run a third of Mexico.

buwaya puti said...

Most illegal immigrants currently residing in the US are Mexican, or at least they make up the largest single group. Most of the people crossing from Mexico have been Mexican, for decades, so this is a natural consequence.

At the same time, the bulk of border-crossers these last three-four years seem to be Central Americans, the number of Mexicans having fallen off greatly. It would be interesting to study this.

So there are several ways to be correct, or wrong.

buwaya puti said...

The influx of large numbers of Latin Americans is certainly having an effect on the US. Especially in certain areas where they have become a majority and have integrated in a rather peculiar way. They are losing their Spanish for English, but are in many ways acquiring the degenerate black ghetto culture, or an adaptation of it.

Politically they have enabled disastrous things. The more so as in many places these people's votes have been captured by an organized conspiracy of academic leftists.

The straight-line projection is that the US becomes a sort of Brazil. But one without Brazilian virtues. In Brazil there is much less intra-ethnic conflict, and certainly nothing like the intense tribal hatreds of the US. A Brazil-state would be a relatively civilized result.

Michael K said...

buwaya, is there a successful Spanish colony ?

Brazil, of course, was Portuguese but it still seems to be corrupt.

The only former colonies that are pretty well governed were English colonies. Zimbabwe is going to be the model for South Africa, unless there is another Boer Republic.

Chile, is the best I can think of but it took Pinochet to do it.

Nicaragua now is possibly worse than Venezuela but it is run by leftists so it will have to get worse to get attention.

Maybe it’s because many of us are glued to the television watching the World Cup, or focused on President Trump’s latest lies about asylum seekers, but the bloodshed in Nicaragua — where more than 220 people have been killed in recent protests — should get much more international attention.

Can they bring themselves to post anything without TDS ?

buwaya puti said...

"buwaya, is there a successful Spanish colony ?"

Define "successful". And note that British colonies are not exactly wonderful, when controlled for race/ethnicity.

The only really successful English colonies, as in maintaining a First World economy, are settler-nations of white people, like Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, or to a degree those cases where the population is largely White or Chinese like South Africa, Singapore and Hong Kong, and perhaps you may want to include Malaysia, with its very large Chinese minority. Otherwise British colonies are not notably successful.

Chile and Argentina and Uruguay were quite wealthy and advanced nations pre-WWII, certainly in the Canadian-Australian-New Zealsnd ballpark. In all three cases they were also largely white settler nations too. They were both badly screwed over by the curse of 20th century ideologies. Chile and Argentina are still fairly close in GDP per capita btw. Uruguay is somewhat wealthier than Chile.

Two others that are in rather good shape - Panama and Costa Rica.

rehajm said...

I don't go there anymore and would not take my family

One of the private global security firms we work with said if a client is kidnapped they are confident they can negotiate a safe return from every nation on the planet, except Mexico.

Gahrie said...

Two others that are in rather good shape - Panama and Costa Rica.

And the fact that they're the two Latin American countries with the closest ties and friendliest relations with the U.S. has absolutely nothing to do with it.

Jupiter said...

buwaya puti said...
"They are losing their Spanish for English, but are in many ways acquiring the degenerate black ghetto culture, or an adaptation of it."

I don't think that is quite so. There is no Mexican equivalent to Detroit or South Chicago, and I think the only important things blacks and Mexicans have in common in the USA is the victim complex manufactured by American academia, although the blacks have a much worse case of it.

Seeing Red said...

Unless the change their constitution it won’t get better. It did them no favors nationalizing Pemex.

Lydia said...

If his time as mayor of Mexico City is anything to go by, Amlo seems to be a pretty pragmatic guy, not a raving socialist -- see this in his 2006 campaign handout:

“As Mayor, Lopez Obrador launched employment incentive programs, promoted public access laws and engaged in policies of fiscal austerity. He created social programs for the disadvantaged, children and the elderly, who had been neglected under previous governments. He professionalized the police department and brought former New York City Mayor, Rudolph Giuliani to help him reduce crime in the capital. Lopez Obrador successfully improved Mexico City’s transportation infrastructure and significantly reduced traffic problems. As Mayor, he also promoted public-private partnerships to revitalize parts of the City. He partnered with Carlos Slim Helu, one of the richest men in Latin America, to transform the City’s center, reducing red tape, bureaucracy and inefficiencies.”

Michael K said...

Argentina was the richest country in the world in 1938 but the British were still running most things.

Costa Rica I grant although I haven't been there.

Hong Kong was more of an entrepot when the Brits were running it. Singapore has kind of taken over since 1997.

My understanding is that Uruguay was rich on exports of cattle and products derived from them.

South Africa was a British mistake in the Boer War. They should have left it alone but they should also have stayed out of WWI.

Mexico would be rich if not for the residue of Spanish colonialism.

The Spanish and French colonies were not settled by families.

Bay Area Guy said...

Viva la Revolucion!

We're gonna need to build a bigger wall.

mockturtle said...

Most people I've met from Argentina were Germans.

brylun said...

Venezuela is now running out of clean water.

Mr. Cook remains silent.

Michael K said...



And Italians. Lots of Italians.

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