"Yes. In the garden, growth has its seasons. First comes spring and summer..."
"... but then we have fall and winter. And then we get spring and summer again."
"Yes! There will be growth in the spring!"
April 30, 2018
"As long as the roots are not severed, all is well. And all will be well in the garden."
"Yes. In the garden, growth has its seasons. First comes spring and summer..."
"... but then we have fall and winter. And then we get spring and summer again."
"Yes! There will be growth in the spring!"
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151 comments:
Great shirt.
All Meade is missing in the last picture is a white dove!
Meade. Doing the work that Mexicans don't want to do.
Meade sure likes to troll...
Donald Trump and a Visitation of the Holy Spirit.
Tucson has three seasons:
1. Winter
2. Hot
3. Monsoon.
My wife used to say California has two seasons, Summer and Christmas.
In the spirit. Glad to see Meade emerge from the Winter Solstice.
He looks like a man that would sure like to be able to wear some shorts about now.
That's no way to treat a lady....fern.
Simply for wearing that shirt in the PRoM, Meade has a minimum of one cold beer of his choosing coming should we ever meet up.
Shorts would look good with it. True.
I like to watch ... Meade.
Meade, the intelligent and well-versed version of Chauncey Gardiner.
That shirt! Fantastic. I'd use your Amazon portal to go buy that if you include a link
”First comes spring and summer..."
"... but then we have fall and winter. And then we get spring and summer again."
How do we know the sequence starts with spring?
”My wife used to say California has two seasons, Summer and Christmas.”
You have one season. Christmas with palm trees and no snow is not Christmas.
Grabbing peace by the...
The mentally challenged Chance the Gardner was mistaken for a deep-thinking philosopher/statesman. Shortly after the movie's release, we elected Ronald Reagan, and a generation later, Donald Trump. Marx noted that history repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce. He got Reagan wrong but Trump right.
Meade is my inspiration. He’s lean and strong going into his senior years. Like Clint Eastwood.
@Original Mike:
You have one season. Christmas with palm trees and no snow is not Christmas.
True; nothing really says celebrating the birth of a Nazarene like snowfall and evergreens.
When I think of December in Bethlehem, I think of frost covered palm trees.
As I walked out tonight in the mystic garden
The wounded flowers were dangling from the vine
I was passing by yon cool crystal fountain
Someone hit me from behind
Ain't talkin', just walkin'
Through this weary world of woe
Heart burnin', still yearnin'
No one on earth would ever know
They say prayer has the power to heal
So pray from the mother
In the human heart an evil spirit can dwell
I am a-tryin' to love my neighbor and do good unto others
But oh, mother, things ain't going well
Can ferns take heat and direct afternoon sun? In South Carolina looking to do the southern 'urns with ferns' thing for the front stoop but they wouldn't be undercover and I wasn't sure if they could tolerate hot weather...
..might go with palms instead.
”True; nothing really says celebrating the birth of a Nazarene like snowfall and evergreens.”
Damn right.
Who's that handsome fella?
In Boston we also have just two seasons: winter and road construction.
-sw
My understanding back then was Chauncy Gardiner was inspired by the rise of Jimmy Carter. The elites were appalled by him too.
There's no president that a little revisionism can't fix.
@wild chicken:
My understanding back then was Chauncy Gardiner was inspired by the rise of Jimmy Carter. The elites were appalled by him too.
That seems doubtful to me. Before it was a film, Being There was a novel published in 1970, before Carter even became governor of Georgia. Also, there is a lot of speculation that the book's authore, a Pole, basically took the idea from a famous Polish novel published in the 1930s called The Career of Nicodemus Dyzma.
Trump has been POTUS for a little over a year. Does anyone talk about or remember that Obama used to be POTUS? BHO might end up with the smallest asterisk in history.
Well Obama was then; this is now. I like now better.
@Original Mike:
You have one season. Christmas with palm trees and no snow is not Christmas.
True; nothing really says celebrating the birth of a Nazarene like snowfall and evergreens.
Unless you are in Sydney.
In Boston we also have just two seasons: winter and road construction.
That's Alaska.
In New Hampshire we had an extra season called "Mud season."
@AllenS:
Trump has been POTUS for a little over a year. Does anyone talk about or remember that Obama used to be POTUS? BHO might end up with the smallest asterisk in history.
Eh, that's just an example of incredibly short public attention span. Even shorter than it used to be if you subscribe to the feiler faster thesis. Consider the amount of column space Clinton took up in his last years in his office. By 2002, was anyone really talking that much about Clinton?
Two questions:
1 - Ann, if you happen to be going to Whole Foods for something and Meade wants to tag along while wearing that t-shirt, do you let him? Do you make him take a separate car?
2 - Where did he get it? Cannot find it anywhere on line (asking for a friend - I would not have the guts to wear it, even (especially!) in my own home)).
One of my top five all-time favorite movies.
Peter Sellers was sublime. The end credits out-takes were as worthwhile as the film itself.
And to appreciate Melvin Douglas in this film, and then 20 some odd years later watch him in "Ninotchka." An education in so much that is unappreciated because it is unknown.
We, the people of Madison, will drive these t-shirt wearing Trumpists out of our Safe Zone!
We own the streets!
We know where you shop!
We know how often you have to ask for the sweet and sour sauce when you order Chinese!
This will not stand!
Blogger mezzrow said...
Simply for wearing that shirt in the PRoM, Meade has a minimum of one cold beer of his choosing coming
--
Prove that mettle by wearing that shirt to Ian's pizza
No Macron tree parallels? Disappointed.
Unknown: "No Macron tree parallels? Disappointed"
Perhaps Althouse should place Meade in quarantine...with plenty of beer and access to cable tv.
AllenS said...
Trump has been POTUS for a little over a year. Does anyone talk about or remember that Obama used to be POTUS? BHO might end up with the smallest asterisk in history.
Not so fast.
What happens when Yates or McCabe decide they don't want to go to prison and they rat him out for spying on political opponents?
In light of todays presentation by Netanyahu people wont be forgetting Obama shipped Billions of dollars to people he knew were actively developing nukes.
Who does not hope for peace?
I don’t see why anyone would take umbrage at this shirt.
They would have to want the peace talks to fail to confirm their belief in the hatefulness of Trump. Who thinks like that?
When the gardener has gone this garden
Looks wistful and seems waiting an event.
It is so spruce, a metaphor of Eden
And even more so since the gardener went,
Quietly godlike, but of course, he had
Not made me promise anything and I
Had no one tempting me to make the bad
Choice. Yet I still felt lost and wonder why.
Even the beech tree from next door which shares
Its shadow with me, seemed a kind of threat.
Everything was too neat, and someone cares
In the wrong way. I need not have stood long
Mocked by the smell of a mown lawn, and yet
I did. Sickness for Eden was so strong.
-Elizabeth Jennings
Ann Althouse said...I don’t see why anyone would take umbrage at this shirt.
--
A shirt of "Hitler"?
Nahhh..go for it.
Ann Althouse said...
They would have to want the peace talks to fail to confirm their belief in the hatefulness of Trump. Who thinks like that?
Are you joking or serious?
Meade = studly
When do we get Althouse T-shirts and polos?
will this do
https://www.topic.com/trump-and-the-dove
T-shirts and polos? How about shorts - for men?
@Achilles:
In light of todays presentation by Netanyahu people wont be forgetting Obama shipped Billions of dollars to people he knew were actively developing nukes.
I cannot believe you took that presentation seriously. What was the bombshell? Iran kept documents that dated back to before 2015 and that indicated the nuclear weapons program halted in 2003, which aligns with previous US intelligence estimates and with the opinion of the IAEA.
Also, Netanyahu, could not point to a substantial violation of the JCPOA by Iran. And it is worth remembering that this is not the first time Netanyahu has been a bit hysterical regarding Iran's nuclear weapons program.
1995: Iran was "three to five years" away from developing a bomb
1996: Iran's "deadline for attaining this goal [getting a bomb] is getting extremely close.”
2009: Iran was “probably one or two years away” from getting a bomb.
2009: "Iran has the capability now to make one bomb..they could wait and make several bombs in a year or two.”
2012: Iran was "a few months away" from getting a nuclear bomb
2012: Claimed Iran would produce a bomb within a year
"They would have to want the peace talks to fail to confirm their belief in the hatefulness of Trump. Who thinks like that?"
Inga, Ritmo, Chuckles and Cookie for a start.
Seriously, where can I get that shirt?
Meade as Chance Gardner. Its going to be hard to read his gnomic comments here with the same credibility.
Is that the Trump Peace Prize commemorative t-shirt?
Peace in our Time!
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2018/04/30/netanyahu-remarks-on-iran-deal-n2476009?utm_source=thdailypm&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=nl_pm&newsletterad=
"This is just a fraction of the total material we have," Netanyahu said. "Iran lied about never having a nuke program. One-hundred thousand secret files prove that they lied."
Iran has always denied every having a nuclear program, but the files show the regime not only developed one, but had plans to put five Hiroshima sized warheads on ballistic missiles.
After lying about their existence, instead of destroying the files in 2015 when the nuclear agreement was signed, Iran moved to preserve the documents. In other words, to preserve their nuclear program.
"Even after the deal, Iran continued to preserve and expand its nuclear wepaons knowhow for future use," Netanyahu said.
Who thinks like that?
Democrats. I believe that Democrats are united in wanting no Republican president to win a war. Vietnam is one case in point. More recently, Iraq was quite nearly lost by Obama after being essentially won by Bush. And in the waves of hatred directed for no discernable reason towards Vlad Putin, I see an effort to reopen the Cold War, since it was won by Reagan and the first Bush.
"1 - Ann, if you happen to be going to Whole Foods for something and Meade wants to tag along while wearing that t-shirt, do you let him? Do you make him take a separate car?..."
Why do you assume I'm the food shopping leader? Meade never "tags along." We either go together or separately, and he likes to drive and I'm happy to take advantage of his skillful driving efforts. (He's never had an accident. I have totaled 2 cars and had a number of denting experiences.)
Would I want to act like I don't know him if he's wearing that shirt? Hell, no! I want to walk alongside him where I can get a good perspective on whatever looks it may happen to draw. And it's not like I have a good liberal name to preserve here in Madison. You may (rightly) think I am a liberal, but in Madison, I am regarded as a toxic right-winger. I already have the freedom that comes from being hated. There's nothing to lose.
Peter Sellers was sublime. The end credits out-takes were as worthwhile as the film itself.
Sellers felt that the showing of the out-takes during the credits denied him getting a well deserved Oscar. His theory was that it made his role appear to be a comedic one rather than a serious one and Oscars aren't awarded for comedic performances.
@J. Farmer, Original Mike:
nothing really says celebrating the birth of a Nazarene like snowfall and evergreens.
Actually it dates back to the Crusades; at Christmas time the Crusaders would mush through the Muslim and Jewish quarters of Jerusalem and Antioch, hurling blazing Yule logs from their reindeer-drawn sledges.
Blogger Michael K said...
Tucson has three seasons:
1. Winter
2. Hot
3. Monsoon.
My wife used to say California has two seasons, Summer and Christmas.
________________________________________________
California has four seasons: fire, mudslide, earthquake, riot.
I believe that Democrats are united in wanting no Republican president to win a war.
I include NeverTrumpers like Podhoretz and Patrick Frey and David French and a host of others besides our very own chuck.
"Prove that mettle by wearing that shirt to Ian's pizza"
Meh, they'll just think it's ironic.
Some are arguing that the events in Korea are happening in spite of Trump, and that he will probably fuck it up despite the efforts of the Koreans. That puts them in the position of denying him credit for a success and blaming him for a failure. Win-win.
The fact that Moon gives him credit is explained away as an example of Moon's superior diplomacy. I will save Inga the trouble by posting a link:
What's Trump Go to Do With It ?
J. Farmer: "I cannot believe you took that presentation seriously."
Right.
It was a "joooo" presentation.
'nuff said.
J. Farmer: "Also, Netanyahu, could not point to a substantial violation of the JCPOA by Iran."
LOL
That just might be the funniest thing I've read all day.
All week perhaps, and that includes all of LLR Chuck's creative defense postings for democrats.
“They would have to want the peace talks to fail to confirm their belief in the hatefulness of Trump. Who thinks like that?”
“Inga, Ritmo, Chuckles and Cookie for a start.”
I certainly don’t think that way and I’m quite certain neither do the others mentioned. To believe this is nutty. I’d rather have Trump receive credit where credit is due, than have a nuclear holocaust. We have a lot of American military stationed in that part of the world, not even mentioning the millions of innocent civilians who would die.
The shirt is fine. But he should be wearing shorts. Plaid shorts. Half way up his thighs.
“California has four seasons: fire, mudslide, earthquake, riot.”
What about Earth, Air, Fire, and Water?
@Drago:
It was a "joooo" presentation.
'nuff said.
So if I criticize a black person, it's because he's black? If I criticize a woman, it's because she's a woman? It's amazing how quickly some of you start sounding like the most hysterical SJW whenever the subject of Israel comes up. Of course, even if I was motivated 100% by anti-Semitism, it would make no different to the argument I make. And of course, you didn't quote or respond to my recounting of Netanyahu's 20+ year career about making totally wrongheaded predictions about Iran developing a nuclear bomb.
That just might be the funniest thing I've read all day.
Unfortunately I cannot refute a credulous stare. So if you know of any actual violation of the JCPOA, please divulge it.
Oh..going shopping will only garner..a sneer or two.
But I would advise against wearing it to sit down restaurants where you can't watch preparation.
A friend of mine made the mistake of ordering a shake at a Dairy Queen in inner city Milwaukee. The shake artist thought he couldn't see when she put her hand under an appliance and swept all the miscellaneous particles into his shake.
I think it's called "Shaking while White".
“California has four seasons: fire, mudslide, earthquake, riot.”
How about parsley, sage, rosemary and thyme ?
I’d rather have Trump receive credit where credit is due, than have a nuclear holocaust. - Inga
Nobody should dare question why you would hope for Trump's failure if that's the alternative. Quite patriotic of you, even.
J Farmer said...
Unfortunately I cannot refute a credulous stare. So if you know of any actual violation of the JCPOA, please divulge it.
That didn't last long.
The ME is shaping up pretty nicely lately. Bin Salman is making a concerted effort to modernize Saudi Arabia and is helping everyone deal with the recalcitrant Palestinians.
The only bad actor left in the region is Iran and they are in the middle of an inflationary death spiral. They would have gone over the edge without Obama's treason.
Without Iran stirring shit up the ME can only get better.
The thing about making a nuclear bomb is that we know it can be done in a few years with 1940s technology by people who don't know for sure how to do it. Iran is a real country, has better than 1940s technology, and knows how to do it..
With that shirt out over his belt, Meade could be carrying and it wouldn't show. He might have at least thought of that before putting that shirt on in Madison.
“Nobody should dare question why you would hope for Trump's failure if that's the alternative. Quite patriotic of you, even.”
Most normal people would not question it.
You have one season. Christmas with palm trees and no snow is not Christmas.
cf the generally forgotten "verse" of "White Christmas":
The sun is shining, the grass is green
The orange and palm trees sway
There's never been such a day
In Beverly Hills, L.A
But it's December the twenty-fourth
And I am longing to be up North
”So if you know of any actual violation of the JCPOA, please divulge it.”
I’m no expert on this, but weren’t they required to divulge their past nuclear program?
Turning Meadhouse into a fern bar?
@Achilles:
That didn't last long.
You linked to an article from over a year ago about a ballistic missile test. The JCPOA does not address ballistic missile technology. It is restricted to nuclear programs. That is why the US was not obligated to lift sanctions over its ballistic missile program as a part of the JCPOA.
Bin Salman is making a concerted effort to modernize Saudi Arabia and is helping everyone deal with the recalcitrant Palestinians.
This claim about Saudi Arabia has been made perennially since at least the 1970s. Bin Salman has certainly been wooing incredulous western commentators with his lip service to modernization. But if you look at what he is actually doing, it is consolidating power through summary kidnapping, torture, and murder. He is participating in a destructive and aggressive war against Yemen, of which a main strategy is to starve the population into submission through blockades and the bombing of farms and food production facilities. He has also empowered Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula by his efforts in Yemen. The Saudis are supporters of various violent radical jihadists in Syria. They are attempting to isolate Qatar, another important US client in the region. Bin Salman's tenure has been marked by one quagmire after another. His only real key foreign policy success to date has been his ability to gain the unquestioned indulgence of western powers.
They would have gone over the edge without Obama's treason.
During Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's eight-year presidency, Iran received over $800 billion in oil revenue. And even that did not significantly alter Iran's strategic position in the region. The $100 billion of Iranian money that was frozen in foreign bank accounts and subsequently released would not have caused Iran to go "over the edge." And since it always bears repeating, had no deal been achieved and Obama walked away, the sanctions regime would have collapses soon after and the Iranian money would have been released anyway.
Without Iran stirring shit up the ME can only get better.
To look at the Middle East for the last 20 years and conclude that Iran has been "stirring shit up" is quite astounding. Just look at the current situation. The US, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE fomented civil war in Syria for years. Turkey has invaded Syria. Saudi Arabia is trying to destroy Yemen. Of the main international security concern in the region in recent years (i.e. ISIS), the US and Iran were on the same side.
@Original Mike:
I’m no expert on this, but weren’t they required to divulge their past nuclear program?
No. First, the only evidence Netanyahu has disclosed are plans and proposals from 15 years ago. Netanyahu himself acknowledged that the plan was abandoned in 2003. Regarding nuclear weapons, these are the relevant passages from the JCPOA:
"iii. Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek, develop or acquire any nuclear weapons."
The JCPOA prevents Iran from pursuing a nuclear program. It does not prevent them from having plans to build a nuclear weapons program two decades ago.
Couple of stories about Chance recently.
Action pics of Meade being there.
Oh I get it! He wore that shirt because it was an unwanted rag that he didn't mind getting dirty while working in the soil. ;-)
I guess it's better than this one.
Never trust a man who can't smile or laugh - especially if he needs to surround his sourpuss with happy, peaceful symbols and images to leaven his obduracy.
Ann said - Why do you assume I'm the food shopping leader? ..
LOL. I deliberately worded my comment "if you happen to be going to" (rather than saying something like "when you go to Whole Foods" . . ) so as to remove the potentially sexist implication. I failed.
Farmer is awfully certain of something that has not been analyzed yet.
Love the T-shirt!!
Do you catch a lot of grief around town??
"I already have the freedom that comes from being hated. There's nothing to lose."
Well, you could lose the self delusion re yer self-importance re other folk's minds re you, from which your freedom is, soothingly extrapolated.
IOW, if you realized that most folk's minds give zero Fs re you (and the one's who do express a POV are being virtual (i.e. it's not personal, it's their own self-soothing)), yer own narrative of being hated would be a lot less virtual signally sooth-y. That'd be a genuine, notable loss.
Get real.
Or not. AKA: carry on.
"LOL. I deliberately worded my comment "if you happen to be going to" (rather than saying something like "when you go to Whole Foods" . . ) so as to remove the potentially sexist implication. I failed."
She's quick to be offended.
Virtue signal.
"I cannot believe you took that presentation seriously"
I did.
Put it this way, if Bibi had been able to give this presentation prior to the "deal," it wouldn't have happened.
Of course, apart from content, the mere fact of penetration I take very seriously.
As David Albright pointed out, the manner of storage indicates their intent to reconstitute their program when they can. I take that seriously as well. A country that will not seek or develop nuclear weapons under any circumstances would not keep those plans in that manner.
@Michael K:
Farmer is awfully certain of something that has not been analyzed yet.
Well, I presume the Israelis analyzed the data; otherwise, how is Netanyahu giving a presentation on its contents? I further presume that the Israelis, after making such a dramatic show of their revelation, are leading with what they consider to be the strongest evidence currently available for their case. Not much use in keeping stronger evidence secret and presenting weaker evidence in its place.
So far the revelation, from Netanyahu's own mouth, is that Iran has documents that were produced over 15 years ago describing a potential nuclear weapons program. There is no evidence presented thus far that any of the plans were ever implemented, and Netanyahu himself conceded that no action was taken towards developing a weapons program as of 2003. Again, this information was all widely described a number of years ago.
My best guess would be that, given the recent Israeli actions in Syria, this is Netanyahu's effort to persuade the US to abandon the JCPOA. I think it is completely unnecessary since it has been obvious for some time that Trump will abandon the JCPOA. He campaigned on it, but I held out hope that cabinet may constrain him on this. They managed for a while, but the recent promotions of Pompeo and the dreadful Bolton have all but sealed the deal's chance. Bolton is a particularly irrational Iranian hawk, including his support of the bizarre Mujahedeen-e-Khalq cult.
If the US pulls out of the JCPOA, there is a good chance the agreement will collapse completely. That will mean the end of inspectors on the ground, the end of video surveillance of their operations, the monitoring of mining and the entire fuel cycle, and the various other mechanisms and constraints on Iran's nuclear activities. In exchange, the US will be alienated by the remaining powers, including important allies like UK, France, and Germany. Given this, it will have very little leverage to work with these same powers to pursue a so called "maximum pressure" strategy.
"That will mean the end of inspectors on the ground, the end of video surveillance of their operations, the monitoring of mining and the entire fuel cycle, and the various other mechanisms and constraints on Iran's nuclear activities. In exchange, the US will be alienated by the remaining powers, including important allies like UK, France, and Germany. Given this, it will have very little leverage to work with these same powers to pursue a so called "maximum pressure" strategy."
But, if we do nothing that could happen in seven to seventeen years. Of course now is better than later, dummy.
Plus, now we have real deal art-er running the gov.
Sure, he doesn't know how to staff the gov w/ competent folks. Sure, he's run businesses into the ground, swindled folks and dealt w/ mafia. Sure, he lies and has his closest staff call him a moron/idiot. And, stuff like this: https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/02/the-gop-tax-cut-is-draining-the-treasury .
So, now seems like a great time to do a deal, if you're pro-Iran. Kim's looking at this set of facts and deciding the same.
"Blather loudly and carry a small dick."
Farmer, I don't doubt your good will but a collapse of the Iran regime is the only way we will have any confidence.
Much the same is true of NK but that is a considerably different situation. Iran can destroy most of the middle east, which will happen if they attack Israel. See the CSIS analysis ten years ago.
The Norks are chiefly a problem as they facilitate other countries programs. They are a bizarre of nuclear technology.
From the POV of the world and the loaded folks here, there's a run on the F-ing idiot/moron in chief.
It must be blissful to be one of you pro-DJT folks.
Like Althouse w/ her mind filled w/ the thoughts of neighboring minds w/ space supposedly dedicated to hating her.
Ignorance.
Carry on.
Bazaar.. Auto correct strikes again.
FTR,
Meadehouse is fortunate to need to work (e.g. Althouse eagerly watching reactions to Meade's shirt) to attract attention. Fro them, it's all fun and games. White privilege. [& obscurity/normal-dough privilege.]
The real deal means working the other way.
Just sayin.
“Meadehouse is fortunate to need to work (e.g. Althouse eagerly watching reactions to Meade's shirt) to attract attention. Fro them, it's all fun and games. White privilege. [& obscurity/normal-dough privilege.]”
They should be sure to video any interactions.
J. Farmer said ... "I further presume that the Israelis, after making such a dramatic show of their revelation, are leading with what they consider to be the strongest evidence currently available for their case. Not much use in keeping stronger evidence secret and presenting weaker evidence in its place. "
I would not make that assumption, reasonable as it sounds.
For much of the world, the intelligence game is just that - a way to gain advantage. You win some gambits and lose others.
For the Israelis, it is about their very existence.
They go through the scenarios in what we might think obsessive detail, in order to uncover and analyze every possible outcome. I don't think that lead with their best. They lead and wait to see the reaction.
White privilege. [& obscurity/normal-dough privilege.]
The real deal means working the other way.
Just sayin.
I guess everybody, more or less, has "privilege over you ?"
Too bad. Try reading a book.
anti-de Sitter space said...
From the POV of the world and the loaded folks here, there's a run on the F-ing idiot/moron in chief.
Old man screams at the clouds.
It was only a matter of time before the leftists threatened overt violence against Kayne West.
And that is the sound of a million leftist heads exploding in rage.
@Michael K:
Farmer, I don't doubt your good will but a collapse of the Iran regime is the only way we will have any confidence.
What does a "collapse of the Iran regime" even mean? And what makes you think whatever comes in its place will not similarly demand the right to develop nuclear technology? There is widespread public support in Iran for a domestic nuclear program. The leader of the much ballyhooed Green Movement also supports Iran's nuclear program.
Much the same is true of NK but that is a considerably different situation. Iran can destroy most of the middle east, which will happen if they attack Israel. See the CSIS analysis ten years ago.
North Korea has been a nuclear weapon state for over a decade. Iran has no nuclear weapon program. And I think it's fanciful to imagine that assume has they developed a nuclear bomb, they would launch it against Israel and risk a devastating counterattack in response. Such an attack would also likely destroy the Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Dome of the Rock.
@Francisco D:
They go through the scenarios in what we might think obsessive detail, in order to uncover and analyze every possible outcome. I don't think that lead with their best. They lead and wait to see the reaction.
Given Netanyahu's 20+ year career of Iran alarmism, he has been wrong every time. I did not bother digging up Netanyahu's boneheaded predictions as he cheerlead the Iraq War. I think it is fanciful to imagine Netanyahu having stronger, better evidence for an Iranian nuclear program but keeping it secret in order to make his lame presentation. It is also worth nothing that Israel's own intelligence apparatus have routinely contradicted Netanyahu's claims.
I did not bother digging up Netanyahu's boneheaded predictions as he cheerlead the Iraq War.
Farmer,
The Israelis have one thing to be thankful for. You have nothing to do with their foreign policy.
How cool is it that Althouse imagines this city of folks who hate her as she goes about her daily b-wax?
And yet, exactly zero of these folks come to anonymously/figuratively shit on her in these threads.
Logic is tricky.
She cracks me up.
And what makes you think whatever comes in its place will not similarly demand the right to develop nuclear technology? There is widespread public support in Iran for a domestic nuclear program.
Sorry, I dod not realize you were an expert on Iran.
I tend to go with Amir Tehari and Michael Ledeen and David Goldman.
I have no doubt that the Iranian people would like to have a nuclear deterrent as long it it did not involve a flat economic history and a brutal dictatorship that the mullahs run.
Intelligent people, and the Iranians are intelligent. want a free society. They had a pretty good one and I think they realize they threw it away. The Japanese learned the hard way.
"She cracks me up."
You crack up easily. I have no idea what you just posted.
Don't worry doc,
You'll always be number one.
“Cracks me up” is a tad old in the idioms department, it literally cracks me up to see it in print and even cracks me up literally even more to hear it said.
M Jordan,
An astute Althouse reader would know that that's me using Althouse's own language.
Try ta keep up.
Carry on.
“What does a "collapse of the Iran regime" even mean? And what makes you think whatever comes in its place will not similarly demand the right to develop nuclear technology?“
Care to define “nuclear technology”?
@jfarmer, "The JCPOA prevents Iran from pursuing a nuclear program. It does not prevent them from having plans to build a nuclear weapons program two decades ago. "
And you are okay with this? It's acceptable? What are you thinking?
"And you are okay with this? It's acceptable? What are you thinking?"
Even pre-Iraq war the gov needed to sell some flim-flam about actual, existing weapons. I.e., not just the idea that in the past Saddam had WMD. Or, even weaker, plans re WMD. Seems like, now the US is, if anything, gonna be more, not less, cautious re toppling governments.
OTOH, maybe we should follow Doc Mike's advice and give Iran the Japan lesson, since two decades ago Iran had plans to pursue a nuke*.
*P.S. Are we now supposed to pretend that it took Israeli spies to discover that Iran has, in the past, had intentions re nukes? This is a breakthrough?
Sheesh.
P.P.S.
I swear Doc Mike is not my sock puppet. As best as I can tell he's an actual person! Look at the published books and Amazon reviews associated w/ him. That's a lot of work for a fake account.
Just like Meadehouse,
other folks suffer from being hated:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2018/04/30/a-black-man-was-forced-to-pay-upfront-at-a-chinese-restaurant-he-got-his-meal-and-10000/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.31fc349a98d1
And, they don't even go about w/ provocative shirts, hoping to elicit disdain.
We all have our own personal crosses.
Carry on.
What if the Meadehouse neighbors see this sorta display (and other actions) for exactly what Althouse stated would be the intent?
Just a couple of geezers who are attention whore weirdos.
Althouse says that she's hated by her home town. What if most/all of the looks are just folks realizing exactly what she states she's intending? It's not hate. It's bewilderment. Pity, too.
Why not live life like a normal person who isn't trying so hard to be a spectacle?
Or, if ya wanna keep being a spectacle, how about not pretending that yur surprised to find that folks perceive you as wanting to be a spectacle?
@Michael K:
The Israelis have one thing to be thankful for. You have nothing to do with their foreign policy.
Despite that, Netanyahu went on warning about an advanced, imminent Iraqi nuclear weapons program that was nonexistent. And of course I don't care about Israeli foreign policy. I am not Israeli. I care about American foreign policy, and the fact that people constantly confuse the two.
I have no doubt that the Iranian people would like to have a nuclear deterrent as long it it did not involve a flat economic history and a brutal dictatorship that the mullahs run.
Intelligent people, and the Iranians are intelligent. want a free society. They had a pretty good one and I think they realize they threw it away. The Japanese learned the hard way.
Pakistan and India being relatively democratic societies did not stop them from developing a nuclear weapon capacity.
@Original Mike:
Care to define “nuclear technology”?
See Article IV of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
@Bun:
And you are okay with this? It's acceptable? What are you thinking?
Of course it is acceptable. It isn't even new information. Iran was under international sanction as a result of its nuclear program. That does not change the fact that Iran has not actually pursued a weapons program and instead of pursuing a weapons program as outlined in two decades old document, it agreed to an intrusive inspections regime in which all stages of its nuclear cycle are under IAEA monitoring, including 24/7 video surveillance installed in facilities.
If Trump were to blow up the deal, the inspection and monitoring regime would be gone, and there would be no sanctions. How on earth would this be a better situation than what we have now?
NPT Article IV: Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy
Uh-huh.
“Althouse says that she's hated by her home town. What if most/all of the looks are just folks realizing exactly what she states she's intending? It's not hate. It's bewilderment. Pity, too.”
I can pretty much guarantee most Madisonians don’t have a clue who Althouse or Meade are.
Farmer said ... "I did not bother digging up Netanyahu's boneheaded predictions as he cheerlead the Iraq War."
Bibi wasn't the one who thought we could transform Iraq into a Westernized democracy. If he supported that notion, it was to egg on the well-intentioned, but naive GWB.
In any case, the mismanaged war (or actually the mismanaged peace) did not hurt Israel. One of their existential threats was removed and some of the forces against them were diminished.
I wonder if there is some personal animus that prevents you from giving Bibi any credit.
”I wonder if there is some personal animus that prevents you from giving Bibi any credit.”
I think Netanyahu is only collateral damage.
I wonder if there is some personal animus that prevents you from giving Bibi any credit.
Oh, but even if there were, it wouldn't matter, only the quality of his arguments. Right, because this is Althouse's Argumentation Automat. No human factors involved.
@Original Mike:
Uh-huh.
And we're back to the credulous stare. IAEA inspectors spend about 3,000 days per year on the field in Iran, and that is in addition to the various electronic monitoring methods. They have workspace within Iran's nuclear facilities. Here's a note on transparency from the latest report:
"21. Iran has continued to permit the Agency to use on-line enrichment monitors and electronic seals which communicate their status within nuclear sites to Agency inspectors, and to facilitate the automated collection of Agency measurement recordings registered by installed measurement devices (para. 67.1). Iran has issued long-term visas to Agency inspectors designated for Iran as requested by the Agency, provided proper working space for the Agency at nuclear sites and facilitated the use of working space at locations near nuclear sites in Iran (para. 67.2).
22. Iran has continued to permit the Agency to monitor – through measures agreed with Iran, including containment and surveillance measures – that all uranium ore concentrate (UOC) produced in Iran or obtained from any other source is transferred to the Uranium Conversion Facility (UCF) at Esfahan (para. 68). Iran also provided the Agency with all information necessary to enable the Agency to verify the production of UOC and the inventory of UOC produced in Iran or obtained from any other source (para. 69)."
So, I guess my question to you is, what do you know about Iran's nuclear program that these people do not? And what is the source of your information?
My question to you is, what is the purpose of Iran’s nuclear program. Power production? Medical isotopes? What?
@Francisco D:
I wonder if there is some personal animus that prevents you from giving Bibi any credit.
Don't see how that is possible considering I don't know him personally or anything about him really. I oppose him just as I would oppose anyone advocating for the US to pursue more recklessly destructive interventions in the Middle East. Had it been Tony Blair making this argument, I would have exactly the same response. Though I somehow doubt you would be speculating about some personal animus that must motivated my opinion (which is the same opinion I give to anyone making the argument).
Bibi wasn't the one who thought we could transform Iraq into a Westernized democracy. If he supported that notion, it was to egg on the well-intentioned, but naive GWB.
Well he certainly did support that notion. Testifying to Congress in 2002: "If you take out Saddam, Saddam's regime, I guarantee you that it will have enormous positive reverberations on the region. And I think that people sitting right next door in Iran, young people, and many others, will say the time of such regimes, of such despots is gone."
So you're position is that he did not really believe this but was simply trying to push the US towards war with one of Israel's enemies? And this is an argument for trusting Netanyahu's judgment?
In any case, the mismanaged war (or actually the mismanaged peace) did not hurt Israel. One of their existential threats was removed and some of the forces against them were diminished.
Israel claims that Iran is its greatest threat. The Iraq War's most proximate effect has been the empowerment of Iran in the region. That part of Iraq least connected to Iran (the west and northwest) has been a breeding ground for violent Sunni jihadists for years. So by Israel's own definition of its security interests, I do not see how you can conclude that the Iraq War "did not hurt Israel."
@Original Mike:
My question to you is, what is the purpose of Iran’s nuclear program. Power production? Medical isotopes? What?
Yes and yes. Iran has had nuclear technology since the 1960s.
They don’t need nuclear power. They can buy Tc-99.
@Original Mike:
They don’t need nuclear power. They can buy Tc-99.
So then is it your contention that Iran's nuclear program, including its encouragement by the Eisenhower administration, has always been for a weapon for the last 50 years? If not, then you must concede that Iran had some non-weapons interest in nuclear research. If that is the case, when do you believe this interest ceased and the weapons interest took over? Or do they coexist?
Also, why do countries like Argentina and Brazil have nuclear research programs? Are there reasons that countries may seek to foster domestic programs in favor of foreign imports? Lastly, there is the issue of so called "latent capability." That is, if Iran does decide to pursue a weapons program, it will already have the foundations. But there is no way to avoid this as any domestic nuclear energy program will provide latent capability.
It is unrealistic to expect Iran to completely dismantle its nuclear energy capacity. A broad swathe of the Iranian public and elite, from hardliners to moderates to reformists believe in Iran's right to produce nuclear energy. The non-proliferation treaty itself gives countries the right to domestic nuclear energy programs. The best way to insure that Iran's program remains that way is with a system of monitoring and inspections.
And that system has been working. Iran has upheld its obligations under the agreement, and the administration has yet to point to a substantial violation on Iran's part. Unilaterally blowing up a deal that is supported by every single one of the major powers, from the UK, France, Germany, the EU, Japan, South Korea, and India, would cost us a great deal and get us practically nothing in return. To quote someone, it would be the "worst deal ever."
”It is unrealistic to expect Iran to completely dismantle its nuclear energy capacity.”
Yeah, that’s what we saw today. Latent capability.
it is strange that you are not considered the best type of liberal, so does the toxic right-winger thing date from the kerfuffle at the state capitol?
and as an aside, that looks like shorts weather to me!
The question I have J. is why are you working so hard to discredit this information and walk it back to the Obama administration talking points?
We know the agreement was based on lies, like so many things the Obamas promised us.
Haven't you heard? His motivations don't matter.
Nobody, not even the rain, has such small hands. (Trump's not Meade's)
@Rusty:
The question I have J. is why are you working so hard to discredit this information and walk it back to the Obama administration talking points?
First, these aren't "Obama administration talking points." This is information that was known
at least in 2007, before there was an Obama administration. Second, what have I gotten factually incorrect?
@Bad Lieutenant:
Haven't you heard? His motivations don't matter.
I'll ask you the same question. What have I gotten factually incorrect? Perhaps you can explain how my motives have any bearing on the validity or empirical correctness of any argument I have made.
I don't have Trump t-shirt, but my Pinochet Helicopter Tours t-shirt arrived the other day.
"First, these aren't "Obama administration talking points." This is information that was known
at least in 2007, before there was an Obama administration. Second, what have I gotten factually incorrect? "
That Iran had no intention of making a bomb and that if they did we could prevent it with the Obama agreement. You were wrong.
Now with Trump we may stand some chance of reigning those religious maniacs in.
Seriously, where can we get that shirt. That's one I would wear.
Reporter (shouting): Mr. President, do you really believe you deserve a Nobel peace prize?
President Trump (answering): I believe the real prize is peace itself.
@Rusty:
That Iran had no intention of making a bomb and that if they did we could prevent it with the Obama agreement. You were wrong.
No, I said that there is no evidence that Iran has pursued a nuclear weapons program since 2003. If you have evidence to the contrary, please present. Also, the constraints placed on Iran by the JCPOA due prevent them from pursuing a weapon, and Iran has complied with the conditions of the JCPOA. Again, if you have evidence of a violation, let us know.
"No, I said that there is no evidence that Iran has pursued a nuclear weapons program since 2003. If you have evidence to the contrary, please present. "
Apparently Israel does.
But. You know.
jews.
@Rusty:
Apparently Israel does.
No, they don't. Did you even listen to Netanyahu's presentation? The documents he revealed were over 15 years old, and he conceded that the program had been abandoned in 2003.
But. You know.
jews.
Strange how when I criticize John Bolton for the same things I criticize Netanyahu for, I never get accused of harboring anti-WASP feelings. Apparently to many here (including here)merely disagreeing with a Jewish person is enough to get you accused of being anti-Jewish. You do realize that that is a tactic straight out of the SJW playbook, don't you?
"No, I said that there is no evidence that Iran has pursued a nuclear weapons program since 2003."
Then why does the transcript say that they have been pursuing this for the last 20 years? Whos word are we taking for that 2003 date?
“Reporter (shouting): Mr. President, do you really believe you deserve a Nobel peace prize?”
President Trump (answering): NO COLLUSION!
As far as I can tell from the different circles of friends I have in Madison ranging from doctors and lawyers to artist and ex cons most don’t know who Althouse is or simply ignore her if they do, no one speaks of hate here. And all including me hope for a peaceful reconciliation in Korea, so yes to white doves.
@Bad Lieutenant:
Haven't you heard? His motivations don't matter.
I'll ask you the same question. What have I gotten factually incorrect? Perhaps you can explain how my motives have any bearing on the validity or empirical correctness of any argument I have made.
5/1/18, 7:54 AM
I could explain better if I knew them. For instance, if you preferred Iran to KSA or Israel, it would make sense for you to argue as you do.
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