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November 7, 2017
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115 comments:
Big win in Virgina.
Good job Democrats.
Please use Ann’s Amazon Portal to support Democrats, The Washington Post, and Bezos even more.
Actually Inga using the portal helps Bezos less than not using it. You pay no more so Althouse's slice comes out of Bezos's profit margin. You'd know this if you could do subtraction. But keep up that razor sharp analysis you're famous for!
Clinton won Virginia by 49 to 44 or by 5 points. It looks as if Northam is winning by 3 points. Counties that went for Trump are still supporting him by numbers like 82 to 16 in Tazewell County. And Northam is winning in Fairfax and Loudoun counties and Roanoke City and therefore carrying the state as did Clinton. The rural/urban divide is pretty much the same as in 2016. The Democrats have made no inroads whatsoever in Trump's votes which means that, nationwide, elections in 2018 are shaping to be a disaster for them.
Is that a fake Las Vegas tree?
Just read that Brazile devoted 1500 words about James O'Keefes vis exposing Dems.
Is she thinking of changing parties?
I have a very strong feeling Inga hasn’t commented on this thread yet, before this comment.
Democrats are kicking ass tonight!
Yet another winnable race Republicans threw away because they'd rather fight each other than campaign. I'm not a party purist, but Democrats at least learned you can't have party disunity and make much progress. Republicans simply need to start telling people that when you have radicals on the other side shooting and tackling your Congresspeople, you can't have your own team undermine each other's legitimacy.
Even if the Right had the Left's message discipline, Virginia and New Jersey were going to be hard wins. But, without party discipline, they're pretty much unreachable.
It's like Republicans don't *want* to win.
Oh, sorry for the violent rhetoric. The “kicking ass” is metaphorical only. Thank you Trump.
Blogger Unknown said...
I have a very strong feeling Inga hasn’t commented on this thread yet, before this comment.
Correct. Some here attribute every stupid comment to "Inga". Life is not fair.
Speaking of violence against Congresspeople: I think it is high time Congress accept we're in the digital age and allow votes from not the floor if there is a legitimate hardship reason. It is entirely possible that the man who attacked and tried to kill Paul will change America's policy due to the close votes in the Senate.
That's not Democracy.
Life is good for Democrats tonight Moonie.
I find it weird that Democrats consider it a good night when they didn't lose any ground winning in states that, not too long ago, were relatively solidly blue.
That's like if Republicans cheered about winning an election in Texas.
Gillespie didn’t “embrace” Trump hard enough, lol!
He actually didn't. Remember, his biggest push about not letting VA become a bunch of sanctuary cities is what caused him to rally. Northram *agreed* with him on this. The thing that stopped Northram's bleeding was aligning politically with Trump.
I'd like to gripe about that "I'm not a robot" gizmo. I understand the purpose but does it have to be so complicated? It's almost as annoying as the ones requiring you type in a word, and the word they give you is in some squished together print. Some websites just ask you to solve a simple math problem and type in the answer (8, for example, if the problem is 2+6). Would that be too easy for the army of robots massed to take over this blog?
By the way, a lot of Virginian moderates are assuming Northram will keep his promise about agreeing with Gillespie about not letting sanctuary cities become a Virginian thing. I, frankly, think a lot of those folks and McMullin type Republicans who thought Northram really meant it are in for a rude awakening.
Excellent comments, Matthew.
William: I'll let you in on a secret.
I never click the button.
Matthew Sablan said...
I find it weird that Democrats consider it a good night when they didn't lose any ground winning in states that, not too long ago, were relatively solidly blue.
That's like if Republicans cheered about winning an election in Texas.
11/7/17, 7:58 PM
_________
(for Va)
Hardly.
Since 1966 there've been 12 governors of Va. 6 Repubs 6 Democratic.
William Chadwick said...
I'd like to gripe about that "I'm not a robot" gizmo. I understand the purpose but does it have to be so complicated? It's almost as annoying as the ones requiring you type in a word, and the word they give you is in some squished together print. Some websites just ask you to solve a simple math problem and type in the answer (8, for example, if the problem is 2+6). Would that be too easy for the army of robots massed to take over this blog?
11/7/17, 8:02 PM
_____
You can bypass it, and go ahead and click on Publish Your Comment.
@wildswan, Northam is going to win by 8 or 9 points. Not a good night for Republicans.
It isn't, but it also shouldn't be that big of a surprise.
As for Amazon portals, I would not ever use Althouse’s. I use the Amazon portal of a right wing Christian homesteading family who live in the Ozarks. They are dirt poor and need the help more than a retired law professor who gets a nice pension.
Northam up by 8 points already.
Does anyone still see Hillary bumper stickers?
I'm still seeing Obama/Biden 2008, but no Hillary stickers!!
I saw a Nader sticker a few years ago, and a Reagan/Bush one this year at some point. It is just weird what people will put on their cars.
Last summer, in Crested Butte, CO, a saw a young person (18-24?) wearing a Reagan/Bush T-shirt.
Gave me hope.
Big Mike said...
@wildswan, Northam is going to win by 8 or 9 points. Not a good night for Republicans.
You are right about the 8 or 9 points. I still think however that the Democrats have not found a way to appeal to Virginia voters outside of a few counties near DC whose inhabitants work in DC, and Richmond and Roanoke. And I still think this is a bad sign for them. The Fairfax and Loudoun voters think "Donald Trump Means Me" when Trump talks about "Drain the Swamp" so they turned out. In general the Acela corridor works in the swamp and votes for it. That won't work everywhere.
I find it weird that Democrats consider it a good night when they didn't lose any ground winning in states that, not too long ago, were relatively solidly blue.
It's the #s in an off-year election. Northam is beating HRC in individual counties. HRC was a presidential candidate - and she was a very weak candidate, but still. Ds don't vote in off-year elections. These #s are crazy.
Gillespie actually did very well in his counties, but it's the energy in places like Henrico outside of Richmond and the burbs. As a political hobbyist, I'm finding the numbers shocking. I can't imagine what the professionals are thinking.
Even a tranny beat a long serving homophobe pube in Virginia. That's bad.
Now I Know! said...
Please use Ann’s Amazon Portal to support Democrats, The Washington Post, and Bezos even more.
And the Hollywood sex pests. Don't forget them.
wwww said...
I can't imagine what the professionals are thinking.
They are thinking, 'Trump is fucked'.
Oh well - one year ago tonight - HILLARY LOST. Woo Hooo!
Pubes lost 11 seats so far in the house of delegates. One to a tranny. How demoralizing.
“I can't imagine what the professionals are thinking.”
I’m no professional, but I’m thinking...thank you Trump.
That won't work everywhere.
Perhaps not, wildswan, but I have to live in Virginia and it’s not a pleasant prospect.
So the Democrats finally win one after many, many losses. Gloat away.
Not much here in WA state except one specific state senate race that will determine if we will have a state income tax. It happens to be my leg district and our entire family voted the correct way.
Meanwhile, I have now received four separate emails from Scott Walker announcing his decision to run for a 3rd term. Love the guy but 4 emails in two days is a bit much.
Democrats are celebrating hanging on to a governor's mansion. That must be the soft bigotry of low expectations I used to hear about!
That 'oak tree' looks like it's in the atrium of the Ballagio.
Fabi said...
That must be the soft bigotry of low expectations I used to hear about!
Until you left school I would guess.
Murphy winning by 8 points already in New Jersey.
Good job blue team, you guys beat me and my most-dearest of homeboys, the Grand Old Republican Party and various Chamber types, soundly.
I speak for all the potential Establishment voters who declaimed "piss on it" with their non-votes when I say we are sorry, really really sorry, we let you, who is us because we are damn-near joined at the hip and much closer than family*, down today.
You Establishment operatives were, and are, right about everything, especially how you/we just need more of you in power. We failed you. We needed to be nice, like McCain was to us when he promised repeatedly to repeal Obamacare and build that gosh darned fence already.
He didn't have to lie to us, he could have called us uneducated racist deplorables, ya know the truth as he sees it and all, but instead like the grand statesman he always thought he was he was beneficent enough to offer us the olive branch of shameless bald-faced after bald-faced lie broadcast over and over. I feel unworthy of this man who sacrificed so much, all altruistically for us.
*which would be sad if the Grand Republican Old Party weren't such an amazing oasis of everything needed to offset poor familial relations in our Age of Divisive Trump.
Did I hurt your feelings yesterday, ARM?
Murphy(D) - a former Goldman Sachs executive.
Of course.
Bad night for Ann and her better half.
As recently as yesterday ARM scolded another commenter about personal attacks. You can't make this stuff up!
"Clinton won Virginia by 49 to 44 or by 5 points. It looks as if Northam is winning by 3 points. "
Won by 8.
Dear Pundit Friends, please stop attributing this D landslide in VA to "changing demographics". VA hasn't changed that much since last Nov. 8 (Hillary by 5%). The bigger explanation is a backlash to Trump and Trumpism, pure and simple
Larry Sabato
@Fabi, it’s bad. Republicans in this state are going to have to do some serious introspection. I think we will love hold the House of Delegates, but the Democrats had to pick up 17 seats to take back control and they’ve won at least 14.
Northam winning by 9 points.
Trump plugs his golf club in a speech to the South Korean parliament.
This is how you get less Trump, try to act like Trump, didn’t work too well for Gillespie, did it?
“Trump plugs his golf club in a speech to the South Korean parliament.”
Vulgar.
Please allow me to save everybody some time and rehash the political conventional wisdom after tonight:
-Energy is with the Dems. right now, Northam is running ahead by about 5-6 points of where he was in the polls (outside of Quinnipiac) and the Dems. had a 10pt advantage in turnout (41% of voters were D and 31% R)
-VA is probably lost to the Reps. for the foreseeable future for any statewide election
-Dems. are favored to take back the House next year
-This was a backlash against Trump
Those four points constitute about 90% of political Twitter right now, with the remaining 10% being divvied up between points about VA demographics and people talking about redistricting.
"Even a tranny beat a long serving homophobe pube in Virginia. That's bad."
Seems to have proven to have been a rational pube fear to me, of the folks comprised of those who make up the kinda-coalition titled LBGT.
It is sad my linear projection of another 1000 Democratic seats dropped during Trump's American kingdomship, following the Lightbringer's, might be off to a sluggish start.
From Twitter, an amazing statistic.
"Trump is the FIFTH President in a row to have his party lose BOTH the VA & NJ gubernatorial races in his first year in office.
Winners:
2017: Dems Northam/Murphy
2009: GOPers McDonnell/Christie
2001: Dems Warner/McGreevey
1993: GOPers Allen/Whitman
1989: Dems Wilder/Florio"
"I'll bet you don't know what kind of wood this is"
"It's Oak."
"Nope. It's Oak"
Larry Sabato predicted 322 Clinton and 216 Trump. Lulz
Apparently I'm a twitter user in good standing, or something.
I was awarded an extra 140 characters to post with.
280 proof link.
Does this mean somebody at Twitter likes me? Or was I just chosen by a lottery?
This is highly irregular.
"Larry Sabato predicted 322 Clinton and 216 Trump."
he didn't factor in the Russians and the uneducated people.
Because, of course, Gillespie was literally Trump, possible only because Trump was literally Hitler, we can all acknowledge this loss falls squarely on Trump, whereas not a smidgen of blame goes to Obama for losing, losing, losing so many Democratic seats from 2009-2016.
Not satire, above is why Trump will indeed adjust to a more likelihood of winning strategy as compared to Obama who could not stand to consider he himself might not be the best campaign manager, speech-writer, MD, pilot, executive chef et al hence the historic defeats.
Christopher, conventional wisdom is typically what is happening right now is what will happen forever. And, as it always is, things are the same until they are not. At which point conventional wisdom changes and it hopes you have not noticed that it has changed three times in four years. Or as a famous philosopher put it:
"Life moves pretty fast. If you don’t stop and look around once in awhile, you could miss it."
It is not a pleasant result for me, but it certainly is an interesting one.
@Guildofcannonballs, the1000 state legislature seats that Democrats lost during the Obama years is probably due more to the ineptitude of Obama and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, ignoring the state races than to love of the GOP. Perez won’t make that mistake.
Mutaman said...
he didn't factor in the Russians
or that they would murder Seth Rich.
“He’s closed an enthusiasm gap by rallying around the Trump agenda. And I think the big lesson for Tuesday is that, in Gillespie’s case, Trumpism without Trump can show the way forward. If that’s the case, Democrats better be very, very worried.”
Steve Bannon
LMAO
All Politics are Local.
Unless you strongly support or loathe the sitting President. In that case, every single election has an Intense National Meaning *if it aligns with your views*.
Not satire, above is why Trump will indeed adjust to a more likelihood of winning strategy as compared to Obama who could not stand to consider he himself might not be the best campaign manager, speech-writer, MD, pilot, executive chef et al hence the historic defeats.
I am unsure if Trump is invested in Rs winning Congress. He has been willing to criticize McConnell while Mitch's ratings dropped through the floor. He may run against the R congress in 2018 and do a Truman.
My take is that Trump is about Trump. If you can't help him, he'll throw you overboard. Not someone I'd expect to be loyal.
Northam won by 10 points.
"Big Mike said...
That won't work everywhere.
Perhaps not, wildswan, but I have to live in Virginia and it’s not a pleasant prospect."
I used to live in Virginia in Loudoun and worked in Fairfax partly. I don't see how you swing those DC workers to thinking of cutting government and there are more of them all the time. The governor has simply decided not to bother with the state outside of Fairfax, Loudoun, Richmond and Roanoke. It's two worlds and that governor only cares about one. It isn't a pleasant prospect but the Acela Corrider is the Acela Corrider.
Murphy won by 13 points in New Jersey.
According to the Virginia Department of Elections, it is still 9% (54-45). I suppose the 0.23% of the precincts not reporting could change that, but I doubt it.
This is how you get less Trump, try to act like Trump, didn’t work too well for Gillespie, did it?
Gillespie was a very reluctant Trump supporter and lost to the Deep State that runs northern Virginia.
Inga is ecstatic and thinks this is a wave going into next year. Keep thinking that Inga.
I see we have a new left wing troll.
Amazing how gleeful our leftists are that the party of racism and the party that supports violent rape and murder won in Virginia tonight. One thing is absolutely clear and that is that the Democrat party of Virginia ran a very very explicitly racist campaign. I thought Democrats weren’t racist but here the whole gang is applauding the most racist campaign in decades. Not even David Duke’ campaigns were as racist as Northam and his allies are.
As for MS-13 gang violence you leftist own every rape and murder that gang commits since Nothqm openly refuses to criticize them and instead attacks everyone who doesn’t like that gang as racist. And ARM and Inga cheer for the great embrace of gang violence by the left! Virginia Democrats: proven to be pro crime and thoroughly racist.
And you people are happy they won? Well I hope you accept the racist label with pride. And the pro gang violence. May the Democrats in Virginia fully reap the consequences and watch their crime rate skyrocket and their racist attitudes bite them.
At least we all can start calling ARM and Inga racists. How could you possibly complain since you are celebrating a racist victory?
—Vance
Yesterday Consortium News published Robert Parry's new article "Learning to Love McCarthyism", which includes the following passages.
-----
.... the Establishment is using Russia-gate as a smokescreen for clamping down on independent media sites on the Internet. Traditional supporters of civil liberties have looked the other way as the rights of people associated with the Trump campaign have been trampled and journalists who simply question the State Department’s narratives on, say, Syria and Ukraine are denounced as “Moscow stooges” and “useful idiots.”
The likely outcome from the anti-Russian show trials on Capitol Hill is that technology giants will bow to the bipartisan demand for new algorithms and other methods for stigmatizing, marginalizing and eliminating information that challenges the mainstream storylines in the cause of fighting “Russian propaganda.”
The warning from powerful senators was crystal clear. “I don’t think you get it,” Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-California, warned social media executives last week. “You bear this responsibility. You created these platforms, and now they are being misused. And you have to be the ones who do something about it. Or we will.”
.... Many people who should know better are caught up in the Russia-gate frenzy.
I used to think that liberals and progressives opposed McCarthyism because they regarded it as a grave threat to freedom of thought and to genuine democracy, but now it appears that they have learned to love McCarthyism ...
-----
https://consortiumnews.com/2017/11/06/learning-to-love-mccarthyism/
Democrats retake the house of delegates defeating 17 pube office holders in Virginia. Nothing changed in Virginia. Althouse, natch, didn't play any of Eds racist ads because that would make her flyovers crazy. There was definitely voter fraud though because we didn't win.
Weeeeeee! Titus, we are riding the wave!
Maine votes to expand Medicaid.
House of Delegates is currently with the Dems up 14 seats with 4 too close to call, at least according to Dave Wasserman. That was two minutes ago. Do not get ahead of yourself.
OK, Wasserman now says it is 5 seats too close to call. Apparently, there is one than one person getting ahead of events.
And I do love Popehat's tweet:
"Political commentary is the art of lurching drunkenly back and forth between OMG DEMOCRATS WILL NEVER WIN AGAIN and OMG REPUBLICANS WILL NEVER WIN AGAIN"
OK, Wasserman now says it is 5 seats too close to call. Apparently, there is one than one person getting ahead of events.
yeah I think there are 4 or 6 that were too close to call as of 1/2 hour ago. Believe a bunch are within 150 votes. These will be decided by mail ins. Won't know for a couple of weeks.
Danika Roem won over the self described Homophobe in Chief by almost 10 points. Sweet.
And I do love Popehat's tweet:
A+ tweet.
Ds are bathing in schadenfreude right now. But best they not get cocky. I'm unsure this wave will be repeated. There's a lot of college educated suburbanites in VA that aren't in every state. That said, DJT's tweets annoy a lot of people. It'd be best for the R party if he'd cool it on twitter. If you annoy the crap outta people, they'll come out on rainy days to vote.
Rob W. retweeted by Rick Wilson:
LBJ '64 - "We just lost the South for a generation."
Trump '17 - "When we lose, at least I got that good one in about Mika's facelift."
“If you annoy the crap outta people, they'll come out on rainy days to vote.”
Let Trump be Trump. That’s how we’ll get less Trump.
Murphy won by 14 points.
Now, parry was actually pro Soviet when it mattered, one of the purveyors of the blood libel in snowfall and kill the messenger.
Yes ms 13 is so harmless the Salvadoran had to bring back the urban paramolitaries the black shadow.The
Let's see -- you've got over half of the party being impotent, incompetent do-nothings who are frequently collaborators with the Dems and who are constantly trash-talking not only the president, but all conservatives. Why wouldn't people vote for that party?
Add to that, the guy heading your ticket is an Establishment guy who, after losing one state-wide election where he had said he wanted to be a senator, then turned around and said he wanted to be governor instead and people weren't supposed to notice he's an opportunistic hack who doesn't really care what office he can get.
It doesn't take a lot to understand the why of the election results.
Plus the lt gov who was pro trump did marginally better than Gillespie, should have picked Stewart he believed in something.
Add to that, the guy heading your ticket is an Establishment guy who,
But it was the burbs that shellacked him, not the rural areas. Red VA came out, it's just that the burbs came out extraordinarily large, and voted all up & down the ticket for Ds. I don't see how pissing off the burbs more makes things better.
It's not just the candidate for Gov. It's more then 1 race I'm seeing wild swings in. & it's not just VA. It's the big burbs. It's places that voted for Gillespie 3 years ago. They're coming out in huge #s.
Here - tweet from Will Jordan:
Astorino won by 10 points in 2013. He's now losing by about 16 -- a 26 point net swing in Westchester County.
The House of Delegates is going to be 50-50 after being veto-proof. The GOP in this state needs a better ground game and they have one year to do it in, two years tops.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2017/11/07/virginias-lesson-hitching-yourself-to-trump-is-not-worth-the-humiliation/?utm_term=.9b474ad3e4b3
“Virginia’s lesson: Hitching yourself to Trumpism is not worth the humiliation.”
Since they focused on phantom pickup trucks instead of real ms 13 slayings maybe the burbs don't have that much of a clue?
We shall see with Corey Stewart up against clem (Tim kaine) next year.
Virginia already had a problem with collapsing exchanges so this will fix everything.
Both Vogel and Adams (LTG and AG) both did significantly better than Gillespie.
"The GOP in this state needs a better ground game and they have one year to do it in, two years tops."
-- Honestly, this may be true. Where I voted, there was only Democratic materials pretty much up to the line that said you can't electioneer passed here. No Republican table set up by 6:35 a.m. when I left.
If Northam sticks to his promise about not letting VA become sanctuary cities/state, then Trump still wins his major policy win, even if he had to sacrifice the governorship. Which, given Trump doesn't really give a damn about electing Republicans, probably doesn't matter to him too much. And, if Northam backs off on that promise, Trump'll have something to tweet storm about.
Shirley you can't be serious, Matthew steyer didn't pledge all this money to let it go to waste.
Color diversity, political congruence ("="), selective child, progressive costs, Obamacare-gap, elective "clean" wars, refugee crises, trail of tears, and collusion with Russian, British, and Ukrainian agents to undermine the democratic process, and people still vote for them. Only at the twilight fringe.
Tonight really should be a warning to the Republican leadership in Congress, but I bet they don't get it even now. Sitting on their asses, doing nothing of in the way of legislation, and hoping to wait Trump out is going to cost them the Senate at a minimum next year. Really, they can't even do tax reform any longer they are so inept.
Trump has accomplished nothing legislatively, hence nothing will be lasting. Tonight’s results will garentee he will be even less likely to get anything done over the next year.
Republicans blew a once-in-a-lifetime chance on a big nothingburger, Donald Trump. They will spend another generation living this asshole down. How embarrassing.
Democrats win elections in blue states and make big headlines. The soft bigotry of low expectations continues...
Democrats actually won very little last night. Virginia had a Democrat governor already, and they will still have a Democrat governor. New York had a Democrat mayor already, and they will still have a Democrat mayor. They did win a new governorship in New Jersey, so that's something. But it was widely expected given Chris Christie's standing. So the end zone twerking is a symptom of how utterly beaten down Democrats are as a party. Congratulations! You avoided a humiliating defeat! That's the best you've managed to do so far! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gROO7xSTxfY
“Virginia’s lesson: Hitching yourself to Trumpism is not worth the humiliation.”
Gillispie lost in Virginia because he didn't hitch himself to Trump.
Telegraph "Kenneth Branagh reveals Judi Dench exposed herself to him in dressing room "
The tree leaves sure look fake to me.
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