Writes Craig Gilbert in The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:
These are the party’s bedrock counties: Waukesha, Washington and Ozaukee. They typically dictate the outcome of GOP primaries... In extensive polling by the Marquette University Law School, 25% view him positively and 64% view him negatively, for a “net favorability” — in his own party — of “minus 39.”
The picture is dramatically different at the other end of the state, in the small cities, towns and countryside of northern and western Wisconsin. Here Trump’s favorability score is “plus 21” among Republicans: 53% view him positively and 32% view him negatively.....
Those counties around Milwaukee are the GOP's "high-turnout geographic base." In 2012, Romney routed Santorum by winning big in that area. Same for McCain over Huckabee in 2008.
“The outer suburban areas around Milwaukee are the strongest Republican areas of the state in general elections, but in primaries, it may also be worth seeing them as the strongest ‘establishment Republican’ areas of the state,” says [Charles Franklin, who conducts the Marquette poll]. “So when it comes to the very unconventional, non-establishment candidate in Trump, it’s perhaps not surprising to find that area the least supportive.”...
Trump has done better in economically hard hit places, but Waukesha, Washington and Ozaukee have some of the lowest unemployment rates in Wisconsin....
“It’s three main things,” [says political scientist Katherine Cramer of the University of Wisconsin] of the discontent she encounters in struggling communities, many of them in rural Wisconsin. “It’s a sense, ‘my place is not getting its fair share of resources.’ But also that, ‘It’s not getting its fair share of decision-making, because whoever is making decisions is not doing right by my community.’ And this sense that people in power clearly don’t get what’s going on in small town Wisconsin and small town America.... He is drawing support in outstate Wisconsin from people who aren’t devout Republicans, but people who are feeling this economic stress. If you ask them which political party best represents you, they’d say neither … Trump is clearly someone (they think) is going to come in and shake things up.”...
If Trump wins Wisconsin, Gilbert says, he'll be "rewriting the rules" of Wisconsin GOP politics and "redrawing the map."
Posts
69 comments:
Fair share, fair trade. Is this a Republican candidate?
People concentrate on the Left-to-Right axis of Politics.
But there is also an axis that is Top-to-Bottom.
This election the Second Axis is making its presence known.
I am Laslo.
Yes. You can say the "GOP" or politicians created Trump, but the voters voting for him are not just republicans.
Not Our Class Dear.
Yes, he is rewriting rules. We'll see if it is enough.
Top to bottom axis? Yes, but there are plenty of poor minorities and they won't be voting for Trump.
Also, the people who reside in these three Wisconsin counties are probably well educated and sophisticated. Despite being Republican, they mostly reject Trump, probably because of the brash, rude ignorant behavior. They might be snobbish enough ro not want to be associated with such vulgarity and aren't particularily impressed by Trump's wealth.
I remember the occupiers who disgraced themselves protesting and making fools of themselves against Scott Walker. Their activities to Kangaroo Court the attorneys office with their thug tactics further alienated me. Looks like I am not the only one with a long memory. The radicals across the country and the universities that incubate them continue to overplay their losing hand. Hopefully, they will be defeated by the one they fear the most.
Another point,
In the suburbs is where Trump loses a good chunk of his white male base, not beta males, these guys are Alpha males, business men, good earners, confident types.
Amanda, a lot of the people who support Trump are highly educated and very sophisticated. What they aren't is snobby.
Trump isn't brash and ignorant. He's just not PC.
He's wrong on some policy but PC is the nation's big problem to be fixed.
PC is about what you're not allowed to notice in public. It's very bad when dealing with problems.
They should bring in MDSCAL to find out what Trump appeals to and disappeals to.
It's an old program that's good at finding the lowest-dimensional representations of social data.
Fair share, fair trade. Is this a Republican candidate?
No kidding.
Look at the Trump axis as about who loses power in the media and who gains it.
PC is a symptom, rhhardin. If you cannot see that, then do carry on with with your repetitive comments.
Amanda,
Of course you would inject your racism into any discussion. You should deal with your racism in a less public forum. It is unseemly.
As to the larger topic, I expect a Hillary! presidency will be rather too much for the country to stomach. Whether that is discovered before or after the election is an open question.
"Amanda said...
Top to bottom axis? Yes, but there are plenty of poor minorities and they won't be voting for Trump.
Also, the people who reside in these three Wisconsin counties are probably well educated and sophisticated. Despite being Republican, they mostly reject Trump, probably because of the brash, rude ignorant behavior. They might be snobbish enough ro not want to be associated with such vulgarity and aren't particularily impressed by Trump's wealth."
What a steaming pile. We're not for Trump because he is not conservative, not because of "brash, rude ignorant behavior." Hell, that what we probably like most...watching him push around the media and reactions of bed wetters like you. But we're smart enough to support him over the two Democratic turds. And you're too dumb to see that Trumps deep support includes a lot of past Democrats.
They may not want Trump. But they loath Hillar(it)y*.
Will the lack of enthusiasm be more important to voter turn out than their dislike of Hillary? We shall see.
* In tribute to her continuing search for a hint of humor).
Amanda said...
Another point,
In the suburbs is where Trump loses a good chunk of his white male base, not beta males, these guys are Alpha males, business men, good earners, confident types.
3/20/16, 9:18 AM
No doubt these guys are all going to vote for the criminal and traitor in November. No doubt you can explain to us how the grifter and traitor can uphold the constitution and faithfully execute the laws from a jail cell.
Cubanbob,
No doubt some of them will stay home. No doubt many of them are hoping Cruz or Kasich can take away the nomination from Trump. With that in mind, that's how they'll vote in the primary. I've heard a surprising amount of these upscale Republicans saying a vote for Hillary isn't out of the realm of possibilities. I think there will be some gnashing of teeth and pulling of hair when the exit polls come out after Hillary wins the general. Trump is going to lose more than he imagines of these successful suburban white males.
The Slightly-Less-Than-Average-Intelligence Althouse Reader says:
I know you Smart People.
You equate Smart with Money. You have Money, you must be Smart.
And then you pay the Little People to not just do the jobs that you don't want to do, but to do the jobs you don't know HOW to do.
Change your own oil?
Change a tire?
Install a faucet?
Rewire a doorbell?
Horror. Those are things only OTHER people need to know how to do. That is why you have Money: you have Money, so you are Smart enough to know that there are things you don't need to know how to do.
I know how to load a gun.
I know where to bury a body.
I know how to blend in with the crowd.
And I figure you don't get it.
Because you're Smart.
I am Laslo.
Amanda do tell us just how Hillary Clinton is going to govern the country from a jail cell.
There are so many Ms and Ws in that part of the country. Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Minnetonka, Waukesha...I can't keep 'em straight. Maybe if we turned all the Ms upside-down (or all the Ws, one or the other).
Amanda said...
I've heard a surprising amount of these upscale Republicans saying a vote for Hillary isn't out of the realm of possibilities."
What's a surprising amount? Who are these people?
What a steaming pile.
It's never too early for Amanda to be a fabulist. She's now claiming that the voices in her head are a "surprising amount of these upscale Republicans saying a vote for Hillary isn't out of the realm of possibilities." Please, dear, tell us all about your upscale Republican friends -- a surprising amount, no less! -- and their realms! Lulz
"These are the party’s bedrock counties: Waukesha, Washington and Ozaukee. They typically dictate the outcome of GOP primaries... In extensive polling by the Marquette University Law School, 25% view him positively and 64% view him negatively, for a “net favorability” — in his own party — of “minus 39.”" Surprise: Republican voters have misgivings about a candidate who doesn't support many Republican policies, and view a charlatan "negatively." Dirty secret: the GOPe became e because more voters in more districts/states voted for e candidates than for movement conservatives or populists.
A new Monmouth University Poll of Ohio revealed that the Republican Party faces a mass exodus to Hillary Clinton if Donald Trump is their nominee “If Trump emerges as the GOP nominee, fewer than two-thirds of Ohio Republicans (64%) say they would get behind him in a general election against Hillary Clinton. Another 10% would actually vote for Clinton, 12% would vote for an independent or 3rd party candidate, 6% say they would not vote at all, and 7% are not sure what they would do. Only 43% of Kasich supporters say they would definitely vote for Trump in the general election while 19% say they would vote for Clinton.”
Trump is going to lose more than one-third of Ohio Republicans if he wins the nomination. The Republicans that are most likely to defect to Clinton in November are political moderates. Kasich leads Trump 54%-30% among political moderates. What should be equally troubling to the Republican Party is that 12% of their own voters are willing to vote third party if Trump is the nominee.
The results in Ohio were not unique. A poll of Michigan Republicans showed that a sizable percentage of GOP voters in the Great Lakes State would vote for Hillary Clinton if Donald Trump wins, “7-in-10 Michigan Republican primary voters (71%) say they would get behind him in a general election against Hillary Clinton. However, 9% would actually vote for Clinton. While the following responses were not offered in the poll question itself, 4% volunteer that they would vote 3rd party, 9% say they would not vote at all, and 7% are not sure what they would do.”
"Trump is going to lose more than he imagines of these successful suburban white males."
Yes, those " successful suburban white males" were out chaining themselves to barriers and parking cars crossways on the freeway yesterday.
Dream on.
We still want to hear all about your upscale Republican friends, Amanda! Please don't keep us in suspense.
About 27 percent of US population lives in cities, 54 percent in suburban be and exurbs, and 19 percent in rural areas.
I can't find data on Wisconsin break down but Wisconsin has 5.7 million people. It's top three cities have about 930,000 people (Milwaukee, Madison, and Green Bay).
It's next two largest cities are Kenosha with just under 100,000 and Racine with a little over 75,000. Kenosha and Racine seem like classic exurbs to me. They aren't clos enough to be considered subject be of Milwaukee or Chicago but are pretty close to Milwaukee and not far from Chicago.
Amanda has never heard of the Bradley Effect,
Many will actually consider voting for a Democrat, rather than just staying home.
This is not just base demotivation: a lot of people, perhaps half or more, said they would consider voting for Clinton or Sanders if Trump was close to winning. A few said they’d volunteer or give money to them if necessary.
“I agree with Donald Trump on virtually nothing and don't consider him a Republican. Not only won't I vote for him in a general election, but I'll vote for either Hillary or Sanders and will do so without a tad of guilt of voting for a Democrat. For that matter, if the election looks close, I'll even consider following Trump's example and donating money to Hillary. … As Americans, I think we have a moral obligation to choose between the lesser of two evils … or as Churchill said: ‘If Hitler invaded hell I would make at least a favourable reference to the devil in the House of Commons.’ ”
“I assume Clinton would crush Trump in a landslide, but if it is actually close, I will not vote third party. I will instead get blackout drunk, hold my nose, and vote for Hillary.”
“I would not only vote for the Democrat if Trump wins the GOP nomination, I would volunteer for the Democratic candidate.”
“I could not ever have fathomed a situation where I would vote for a Democrat president, especially not HRC. However, the impossible has happened … he has forced me to consider voting for a Clinton.”
It's next two largest cities are Kenosha with just under 100,000 and Racine with a little over 75,000. Kenosha and Racine seem like classic exurbs to me. They aren't clos enough to be considered subject be of Milwaukee or Chicago but are pretty close to Milwaukee and not far from Chicago.
Dunno if you've ever been there but these two towns are camel flies infested armpits by-the-lake ...
John Kasich and Bernie Sanders best capture the bipolar demographic in Wisconsin. I expect they'll both do well in the election. Walker will probably endorse Kasich.
It's ridiculous to think that Walkershau County will choose Hillary. They'll stay home first.
Amanda, the question is not how many Republican votes Trump wins. It's how many Dem votes and squishie-Indie votes he wins.
Birkel -- You have a knack for saying something stupid almost every time you open your mouth. Acknowledging that, as a group, Blacks may be less favorably disposed to Trump than Caucasians is not racism. It is simply a true statement. Try living in the real world. Is it racism to say that as a group Whites tend to support the KKK more than do Blacks? (And I do not mean to imply that many Whites support the KKK. They don't).
"Amanda, the question is not how many Republican votes Trump wins. It's how many Dem votes and squishie-Indie votes he wins."
No Bob, that's not really a significant question. The vast majority of Clinton or Sanders voters will NOT vote for Trump. He is generally despised among Clinton and Sanders voters. He won't get many Democrats, I can guarentee that. As for squishy independents he may get about half, I suspect. Exit polling will tell the tale and if I'm wrong you can then tell me so with certainty. Trump is in trouble, he is dragging down the Republican Party and when he loses there will be a reckoning, maybe even a Trump incited riot.
So the important thing is that Wisconsin is part of the new breed of winner-take-most states.
Delegates are won first of all on a majority basis within each of the state's congressional districts. That's 24 of the state's 42 Party delegates. (3 delegates in each of the 8 districts.) The remaining delegates (18) all go to the state's overall vote winner. 15 of those delegates are at-large, and 3 delegates are state Republican leaders who are bound to the national convention and will vote for the state winner.
Trump could do well, and maybe even great, in Wisconsin with a carefully-placed plurality, like he's done in a state like Michigan.
But Trump's wins in that fashion keep masking his apparent weakness as a national general election candidate.
It'll be interesting to see how Trump does, in the three Wisconsin Democratic districts including Milwaukee and Dane County. And also the big, rural, northern districts (7 and 8) because Trump did well (again; plurality-well) in northern Michigan's rural areas. Every vote matters in Wisconsin, and the state could help deny Trump his first-ballot majority of delegates.
Amanda, when challenged on here claim that she has "...heard a surprising amount of these upscale Republicans saying a vote for Hillary isn't out of the realm of possibilities." posts a poll and a Oped by a lefty with unnamed "Republicans".
Amanda,
The media is not honest. Almost none of these people are real. You are delusional.
Hillary stood on the coffins of dead veterans and lied to their families faces about why they died in Benghazi. More people will look at that and conclude that Hillary is a disgusting human being than will vote fore her because most people in the US are decent and have a soul. Hillary is a historically bad candidate.
Trump's base is blue collar workers and their families. They don't fit in the Dem or GOP party.
In the US, there are over 1 million workers in oil, gas, and coal industry; 2 million farmers and ranchers; 3.5 million truck drivers; 3.5 million materials movers and handlers; 6.5 million construction workers; 12.5 million workers in manufacturing.
There are also over 600,000 law enforcement officers in this country and 200,000 combat soldiers.
These people are integral to the nation's well being. But both parties neglect them.
Chuck said...
"It'll be interesting to see how Trump does, in the three Wisconsin Democratic districts including Milwaukee and Dane County. And also the big, rural, northern districts (7 and 8) because Trump did well (again; plurality-well) in northern Michigan's rural areas. Every vote matters in Wisconsin, and the state could help deny Trump his first-ballot majority of delegates."
If Trump has the most delegates he will be the nominee. Trump and Cruz have had a deal from the beginning and they will be together at the end. Cruz is not stupid enough to trust the GOPe. Bank on it.
Well several commenters have noted that Amanda's posts are a steaming pile. No need to repeat accurate observations.
That said, I finally saw a non sexual innuendo Laslo Spatula post. That guy has possibilities. I do think that the teasippers who cock their little finger as they sip their oolong just don't get the Joe the Plumbers of this world. Not our class dear and all that. But the teasippers screwed up. In the general presidential election Joe the Plumber's vote counts just as much as Chuck Schumer's or Elizabeth Warren's vote.
Now sometimes that individual vote doesn't count for much. I happen to loathe Hillary Clinton--but I live in the People's Republic of California. And it's an absolute slam dunk that California will go for the Hildebeest this November---unless she's in prison, and maybe even then. But I'll still go pee in the wind in the voting booth and vote for "not Hillary".
And yes Amanda, I am one of those successful suburban white males you seem to have the hots for.
"More people will look at that and conclude that Hillary is a disgusting human being than will vote fore her because most people in the US are decent and have a soul." But not enough.
"These people are integral to the nation's well being" But not enough.
Trump's campaign is bordering on a movement. The national GOP just got a lot smaller, and the national Dem got a little smaller. At the beginning of this election cycle, 29% of voters identified as Dem and 25% as GOP, which is the lowest total ever. The Dems could grow a little bit when the rest of the country club republicans defect to the Dems (half of them already did over the last 25 years). But the large plurality of voters is independent.
By the time this election is over, the parties will realign and everyone will know how many blue collar Americans there are and what they do for the country. As the violent crime rate continues to spike and police departments across the country confine their struggle to attract qualified recruits, the soccer moms and dads are going to have a new found appreciation for those they neglected who kept the peace.
The Air Force also has a shortage of pilots as it struggles to recruit and retain. Expect our combat forces to start having that problem soon.
All the unemployed and marginally employed Grievance Studies majors from Progressive University aren't stepping up to fill these positions. Progressives don't believe in duty and self sacrifice. And they don't want to get wonder or killed protecting minorities in Philadelphia.
The problems are going to keep getting worse.
"These analyses affirm Trump’s allure to white, working-class voters as central to his candidacy. It is the pillar on which his dominant standing in the polls rests. If Trump wins the Republican nomination, it will be through their support.
Yet these analyses, revealing as they are, overlook a salient fact. The verdict of working-class voters will not be the only one rendered on Trump, or the most important one. However popular Trump may be with the working class, he is as unpopular with voters who have graduated from college, a group without whose backing the GOP has no shot at regaining the White House.
From The Federalist.
Amanda, I have two graduate degrees and many people I know with similar education are Trump supporters. I am reluctantly being shifted that way, as well. Megan McArdle lives in DC and I would suggest that most Republicans she knows are either government employees or employed in lobbying. Trump is anathema to these people just as these people are anathema to most Americans not on welfare.
There is a lot of heavy breathing about Trump right now among Republicans who are comfortable with the establishment. I suspect that Cruz, once he realizes he cannot win the nomination, with make his peace with Trump and Trump will make his peace with many establishment figures, most of whom loathe Cruz.
Turnout has been low in Dem primaries and I think the Hillary vote will not turn out once Bernie is gone.
The polls are subject to the Bradley Effect and do not reflect Trump's real support.
There are a lot of Democrat voters who are unaware of the real evidence of treason on Hillary's part because the news media are part of her campaign. Trump will be blasting that out 24/7.
We will see how it turns out by November,
Upper class whites will vote for Trump as the violence in cities continues to grow this summer. The GOP won 5 of 6 elections between 1968 and 1988 because everyone knew the Dems wee soft on crime and social decay. Trump has the police on his side. Hillary will the candidate of BLM and rising violence.
This will be a major issue in the campaign.
Amanda wrote, "[Trump] won't get many Democrats, I can guarentee that."
Who talks like that?
MichaelK,
What you misunderstand or underestimate is that there are a huge amount of people who think most things that come out of Trump's mouth is pure garbage. How can one give credence to Trump the birther? Trump the anti vaxxer, etc etc etc. Trump is not a credible source of any information. The fervent hope that Clinton will be prosecuted is unrealistic. Most reasonable people have already recognized this and I believe the irrational angry uninformed voter is a minority, thank goodness. I believe that Clinton is the lesser evil and that will become exceedingly clear the closer we come to November.
Trump whose best consultant on foreign policy is himself. Very reassuring, lol.
steve uhr:
My days of caring what you think should start soon. Do hold your breath.
Amanda injected what she believes minorities will do into a conversation. She injected race. I will call Democrats -- the party of The Trail of Tears, C.J. Taney, Jim Crow laws, the KKK, Woodrow Wilson, Japanese internment, quotas and racial politics -- racist because it has the advantage of being true.
Amanda is racist.
" I believe the irrational angry uninformed voter is a minority, thank goodness."
Like James Comey ? And all those National Security types?
As Clinton’s case progresses, it appears the probe is being directed by intelligence and national security law enforcement authorities rather than civilian agencies subject to political influence, according to a Daily Caller News Foundation investigation.
There are currently at least four national security investigations, including those by the FBI, Department of Justice, and the inspectors general for the Department of State and the Intelligence Community.
“The way I’m reading this is that there’s this uprising in the national security bureaucracies to prosecute Mrs. Clinton,”
We'll see.
If Trump wins Wisconsin, Gilbert says, he'll be "rewriting the rules" of Wisconsin GOP politics and "redrawing the map."
Trump's been doing a lot of that lately, you know.
The notion that Alpha Males will vote for Granny Hillary is absurd. I have no doubt that the NeverTrumpers will return to the fold with a vengeance once Trump starts locking horns with Hillary. Remember the wishful speculation that bitter Hillary supporters weren't going to vote for Obama when he won the Donk primary in 2008? And yet they did, in droves. Curious that Lefties think human nature applies only to them.
How did the American left manage to flip the blue-red designation?
The left is universally represented by the color red in association with the mass abortions that always accompany their rise to power.
@n.n: The story can be found here.
Amanda said...I believe that Clinton is the lesser evil and that will become exceedingly clear the closer we come to November.
Most of us who've been around here awhile never thought otherwise. :)
You will have a chance to vote for Bernie soon. Will you take it?
n.n: "How did the American left manage to flip the blue-red designation?
Oh it's just more of the continuing attempt to present themselves as something they are not.
In the same way that there were no Communists in our government answering to the Soviet Union, Stalin was actually a "conservative", Alger Hiss and the Rosenbergs were "innocent", etc.
Simply more of the same.
Nothing yet about Amanda's imaginary upscale Republican friends? I was expecting a "surprising amount"! Lulz
Amanda: "Trump whose best consultant on foreign policy is himself. Very reassuring, lol."
Barack Obama: “I think that I’m a better speechwriter than my speechwriters. I know more about policies on any particular issue than my policy directors. And I’ll tell you right now that I’m gonna think I’m a better political director than my political director.”
Attributed to Obama by Patrick Gaspard, who was Obama’s first White House political director, in an interview with The New Yorker in November 2008.
So, in addition to Foreign Policy, Obama thinks he is his own best advisor ON EVERY SINGLE ISSUE EVAH!!
"LOL" times infinity = Obama hubris
Amanda hardest hit.
Dishonorable Fabi,
I'm not about to reveal anything personal about my offline identity or life on a public forum, because there are creepy people, some like you, who inhabit these types of political forums. You have absolutely no idea who I socialize with, am married to, or where I live and you never will.
Fabi:
She won't feel safe to broadcast her racism if she reveals personal details about herself.
chickelit:
Subversion through associative disorder.
You have to give them credit for their comprehensive and effective campaign to marginalize their competitors. It's really quite an impressive achievement to seize a large, established population through indoctrination (e.g. established "church" with an amoral or pro-choice religion) and marginalization (e.g. excessive immigration, population control inc. abortion rites, gender dysfunction, etc.).
Please don't spontaneously combust, Amanda! You're the one who brought up your imaginary friends, not me. It would have been much easier for you to admit that you've been caught in another lie. Lulz
Quite true, Birkel.
Bob Ellison, I sympathize with you about the Wisconsin place names. My wife attributes at least some of my excess weight to my craving for peanut M&Ms. So I promised her that I'd stop eating them and only consume W&Ws.
Still waiting for Amanda to explain to us how Hillary Clinton can faithfully execute the laws and uphold the Constitution from a jail cell.
Good plan, Jeff!
There are also too many As and Ks in place names. Arkansas, Oklahoma, Alaska, Arizona...where are the Zigisfords and Quildlarts?
Amanda said...Top to bottom axis? Yes, but there are plenty of poor minorities and they won't be voting for Trump.
These voters are not your typical "wait for a government handout" types, but live in the "hardscrabble" areas of Wisconsin and see their tax money go to Madison to keep Findorff building ever more buildings on the UW-Madison campus and pay for the freebies that your "favored minorities" take for granted. In many of these towns, you have to drive 5 or 6 towns away to find a grocery store that is still open.
These are not your suburban/exurban Republicans that you typically been accustomed to. Many of these people are independents or even nominally Democrats, but the party has left them. Like Michael K said, "We will see how it turns out by November".
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