Fifty-one percent of his backers say their minds are made up about him, compared to just a quarter of voters who support a candidate other than Trump.The poll was done December 4 through 8. Trump's statement about excluding Muslims from the U.S. came on the 7th.
Trump leads among both men and women. He has more than a 20-point lead among non-college graduates (and a smaller lead among those with a college degree)
December 10, 2015
A new CBS/NYT poll has Trump on top by 19 points, with 35% of Republican primary voters — a 13 point increase since October.
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65% want someone other than Trump.
Reality has a Trump bias.
The Washington Post today (12/10) has a front-page story on Trump; the reporters lied (i.e., convey false narrative) that Trump's comment about 200,000 refugee is a lie. In fact, it is true. Obama said 100,000 per year, which Trump tweeted with a screen shot. So, that makes 200,000. Assuming there is no fact checker or the Post reporters fail at math, why are American public continued to be exposed to lies (i.e., false narratives) on Trump. Also, Rand Paul tweeted 10-times about why Obama is not qualified (in response to WH Sec saying Trump is not qualified). Why has the Media not covered this as much as they covered WH Sec the day before.
The fact that Trump is treated badly makes me want to vote for him even more.
Can you dig this?
Paris was attacked by jihadis. At least one of the jihadis had come to Paris by pretending to be a refugee. Almost all of the jihadis had made trips to Syria, which were undetected by French officials. The attackers used guns, which are pretty much illegal in France.
So. The reaction, understandable if not completely rational, was fear in America, and calls to not take in refugees because we don't know who is coming. Our president decided to mock those who talked about this, saying "what are they afraid of? Women and orphans?"
The next week, a female jihadi and her husband decided to shoot up their co-workers in San Bernadino. She came to this country on a legal visa, even though she was already a radical, and so was the man looking to bring her here. A friend bought them guns in one of the most restrictive gun law states in our country.
All of this gives rise to someone like Trump making the over-zealous and impossible case that no muslims should be allowed into the country. And this speaks to some people, because they think those in charge are driving the crazy train, dismissing their legitimate concerns and mocking them for having them.
Obama was supposed to be a new kind of leader, who saw both sides of every argument. Instead, he belittles Americans who don't agree with them. Tells them "that's not who we are". People are feeling unrepresented, are looking to be heard, and the loud clown Trump dares to say the most outrageous things, pushing back against the current atmosphere of ridicule, safe spaces, and policies that actually seem to be leading us nowhere.
There's almost nothing I like about Trump, but I see why Obama's America has created his popularity.
Trump is representing the voting base cultivated for years by the Republican Party. Republicans for years now have been making appeals based on racism and xenophobia and other emotional hatreds. The Republican Party played with fire for all those years; the Republican Party created Trump.
Amazing again. Bush has spent 50 million so far, mostly on TV ads, but Trump has spent 0 so far on TV ads.
The only way left to stop Trump is to close down Cable TV News until after the election.
See? Once written, twice... comes into the thread just in time. It's racism! Xenophobia! We must not discuss the wisdom of our current visa/refugee program. We must not discuss its problems.
I'm not going to scream in agony just yet. It's a long process. He has the opportunity to throw even worse sounding statements between now and the convention. He always doubles down on his controversial statements. At some point he will he will really stick his foot in it and then doubles down and loses the bet. I hope.
The MSM still lives in a bubble. They corner him on his positions and then make it sound worse. Then they act surprised when it doesn't change the polls. They can't conceive that so many people actually agree with him.
Once written, twice... said...Trump is representing the voting base cultivated for years by the Republican Party. Republicans for years now have been making appeals based on racism and xenophobia and other emotional hatreds. The Republican Party played with fire for all those years; the Republican Party created Trump.
Actually, Obama created Trump in the same way he creates new gun sales. It's basic physics (cf. Newton's 3rd Law).
In my view, Trump support is an utterly rational reaction to the past 7 years.
I see that MayBee said it better at 8:24.
David Begley said...65% want someone other than Trump.
And they certainly don't want Hillary or Bush. Why is this basic fact lost on them?
MayBee @8:24 speaks for me.
It is looking more and more like Trump may be this cycle's Romney - the guy generally leading and taking most of the criticism who little by little gains reluctant support from doubters desperately looking for but failing to find an alternative.
The deeply divided nature of Republicans still makes a Hillary win the most likely outcome regardless of the nominee. Many more emotional highs and lows for all sides lie ahead.
I've never been a Trump supporter. I don't think his decision making process is sound. A Chief Executive has to staff decisions appropriately, and one you take him out of real estate development and into topics he has not personally mastered I think he'd be prone to make rash, uninformed, knee-jerk, stupid decisions.
So he's just like Obama that way.
I don't think he'd make a great President for those reasons.
But I'd vote for him just to piss off these sanctimonious liberals.
Again and again, every time I read that Trump has said something outrageous, I go looking for the tape, and Trump didn't say anything like what the media is saying he said. It's always the media quoting each other on what they assume he said or meant. It's stupid.
Maybe is exactly correct. The refusal of mainstream pols to discuss immigration honestly, and worse to call anyone who wants to discuss it racist, is why the issue has such salience. Americans are not children and only the far left will vote for people who treat them as such.
I expect to hear a lot about the stupid people who are supporting Trump.
The media recognizes low information voters when they vote for Republicans. They forget they exist when they vote for Democrats.
@AP: "The fact that Trump is treated badly makes me want to vote for him even more"
I understand the temptation, but at this point the MSM are just baiting GOPers to turn this into a FU primary season, setting us up for the fall in the fall.
"They can't conceive that so many people actually agree with him."
It's a class thing, don't you think? They haven't been hit by the middleclass economic slide of the last 40 or so years. They're not impacted. Folks are scared. People feel screwed. They feel backed into a corner and are lashing out. And it's ugly. The MSM doesn't live in that world.
Well, they certainly agree with him about the media - and it is just not in the media to accept that this is a lot of what t is about; it is not the issues, it is them!
Paris, San Bernadino. Another attack here and Hillary Clinton will be leading the charge to exclude Muslims. She would turn on them in a minute if she thinks she needed to do so in order to win the presidency.
See? Once written, twice... comes into the thread just in time. It's racism! Xenophobia! We must not discuss the wisdom of our current visa/refugee program. We must not discuss its problems.
That's why I'm very understanding of Trump. He will bring up the issues.
How often did the media whitewash Muslim support of the 9/11 attacks? Listening to the media, they were all quite unhappy about it. Trump made them admit that some were quite happy.
He's forcing the media to define how MANY illegals are criminals instead of just the usual "They are just trying to make a better life for themselves" --- as if that's a justifiable reason to ignore laws.
Are Trump's proposals great? No. But I like the idea of starting off with an extreme and then negotiating down to a tolerable one. It's better than the usual "Let's surrender at the word go" strategy.
The political elite made Trump. The over credentialed but under-educated set made Trump. And now they're falling over themselves mocking the "lesser" who support Trump. They seem to ignore that the "lesser" are way more numerous than the elites.
How many Dems claimed they were Repubs and voted dishonestly for DT when they are really Dem supporters?
Below is a sample of the conversation we need to have. But we don't have this conversation because progressives know the vast majority of America will support measures they don't want - so they call everyone racist and refuse to address the details. As we see from this very website it's a standard left wing tactic - and unfortunately largely successful in public life.
______________
We should require every applicant to have a complete background check similar to what we perform on people we hire for national security.
Anything showing evidence of political or social beliefs not compatible with the American mainstream should be cause for denial.
Attend a radical Mosque or Madrassa - denied.
Argued Israel should be driven into the sea - denied.
Liked on social media articles supporting Islamic supremacy - denied.
Argued the holocaust never happened - denied.
Argued the world would be better off under the "right" kind of communism - denied.
Argued gays should be thrown off buildings - denied.
Argued western women are legitimate targets for rape and other mistreatment - denied.
We can't complete the background check - denied.
And by the way applicants pay for the background check. The toughest question for me is who will perform the background checks. Obviously you can't have Lois Lerner in charge gaming the system to support her ideology. I'm honestly not sure a solution exists to this obstacle, especially when you think about how bureaucracy evolves over a few decades.
And we're not even post primary. It'll only get better. And it's not like he didn't tell us in his book, Art of the Deal. Curious how the smartest of us can be so dumb. Maybe it has something to do with having to make a payroll and start from scratch a few times. This reminds me why I hate negotiating with nya-kers. Though after the pain I love the results, mostly because all future issues are settled, including the divorce agreement.
And it's no surprise why the MSM hasn't shown any of their footage of Carter banning Iranians, the history of both short-and-long term bands, using religion as a test, or us kicking out Christians. If it was not so sad, it'd be funny. Mr. T set the fuse, and the old-GOP has self-destructed all on the record using just one issue that shows their absolute ignorance of both the law and what it means to govern. Even their overpaid staff failed to protect them. Nice to have them out of the way. They had their chance in 2012 to surrender to the taxed-enough-already folks, and they didn't. So they will get what they deserve, and will likely ally with the left to postpone the inevitable. And even though Trump will raise taxes, the people won't care because they'll be richer once government gets off their back. I wonder if he'll rename the party after his election? I can’t see anything worth preserving once he draws the line and says join me or go the way of the Whigs.
Trump is the only celebrity. If people don't follow politics, his will be the only name they recognize. So it's no big surprise that he polls well.
We'll see what happens when regular people really start paying attention. Political hobbyists (that includes nearly everyone here) often forget that most people are not political hobbyists and pay almost no attention to this stuff.
Elections have a way of focusing the mind, and of sorting out those who don't have enough interest even to show up. In contrast, this poll-driven stuff all seems like noise -- the kind of noise reporters and bloggers have to generate, since they are in the noise-generating business.
Master salesman sells self. Caveat emptor.
He is forcing the political establishment in DC to listen and discuss the issues that affect the little people out here in the hinterlands. We appreciate it when someone stands up for the little guy. The squeals of rage of the once written's will get louder as the lies they built their paradigm with are drug into the light of day.
I thought at first Trump was a Hillary stalking horse. But if he is he is doing it wrong. He has shattered the democrat coalition. The blue collar middle class that used to vote for democrats are his primary constituency, not conservatives which are split amongst the top republican candidates.
He also knows he with this coalition he could be Hillary. She is a truly terrible candidate. Even carville is waking up.
You, fella, with the really stupid name, should stop writing until you learn how to do it. It's not that difficult. (Semicolons are a bad habit, by the way.)
Try starting with a fact or even a valid assertion. That makes for a discussion.
"All of this gives rise to someone like Trump making the over-zealous and impossible case that no muslims should be allowed into the country."
Trump suggests a moratorium on Muslim immigration until until our country's representatives can figure out what is going on.
Over zealous? Impossible? I think it's both rational and practical.
The war between Islam and the West is just beginning. Trump and those who think like him want to nip it in the bud, but it's more likely that "cooler heads will prevail" and we will only really take it to the enemy after a truly horrific attack with massive casualties.
@Igv,
The MSM still lives in a bubble. They corner him on his positions and then make it sound worse. Then they act surprised when it doesn't change the polls. They can't conceive that so many people actually agree with him.
Yes, the MSM definitely lives in a bubble. A large part of the atmosphere in that bubble is that they don't realize how anyone who's a potential Trump supporter loathes & distrusts the MSM with a religious fervor. If the MSM hates Trump, that's just all the more reason to like him.
Trump really is the Obi Wan Kenobi of modern politics: "If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine."
The middle class, and, esp. the lower middle class have been hurt hard by the Dems and the Obama Administration. The really rich have gotten much richer, while those who didn't get a college education, but try hard to live the American dream have been shit upon royally. Some of this s inescapable, but some is a direct result of the sort of crony capitalism that is so popular with Obama, and, esp. Hillary. Contrary to what Pelosi claimed, flushing those trillions of dollars down the drain, trying to spend our way out of the Obama Recession cost jobs, and much of that was because the money was being spent so much more inefficiently than if it had been spent through the market, instead of by government fiat (which inevitably gives those closest to those in power a slice of the action). While their lot has gotten worse, the response from many of those in politics is that they should just be happy that they now qualify for Medicaid, since their jobs are now gone, or seriously downgraded. Plus Snap/food stamps, etc. And, most importantly, just shut up. Those with ivy league degrees are much smarter, and will take care of them. Except, as evidenced by those in power, and esp. Obama, they aren't. Rather, they are just more craven and corrupt. This segment of America doesn't want handouts - they just want those jobs that Obama and the Dems destroyed (and those that were going to be destroyed anyway through automation or off-shoring).
Trump speaks for the middle class economically disenfranchised. Or, those who fear that they will join that demographic. He speaks for every one who has been harmed by the excesses of the Obama years. And, he keeps doing it, and the more the powers that be try to shut him up, the more that he isn't shut up, the more votes he gets. He is saying what so many Americans want to say, and want to hear, but can't or won't because their supposed betters don't want that sort of thing hidden. Why subsidize people to come here from all around the world illegally, when they take jobs away from Americans? Why allow unvettable Syrian Muslims into this country (and why give them priority over Syrian Christians who are actually being butchered by ISIS, which includes Syrian Muslims), when ISIS and al Qaeda are using their easy immigration to get jihadists into this country in order to strike at our heartland? Why squander billions, if not trillions on AGW/AGCC hysteria, when the raw figures show no warming for most of the last two decades? (And, esp. when so many Dem donors are making so much money on these scare). Why squander so much money on solar and wind energy (the latter being the one thing that can legally kill eagles in this country)?
This anger is what Trump has tapped into. Every time that the powers that be squeal about one of their sacred oxen that he has gored, and he survives it, triumphs over political correctness, and comes out ahead, he gets millions more vote. They love the fact that he can flip the finger at those in power in this country, and gets stronger every time he gets away with it. And, yes, every MSM outlet that tries to take him out, and fails, loses viewers/readers, and he gets even more support.
The problem that the establishment candidates, and esp. JEB Bush face here, is that they seem to be happy with their people getting their part of the wealth being sliced from the American economic pie by big govt. Bush seems to just be saying that in fiscal issues, what is important is just running govt. better. Not reducing its footprint, but rather, just running it more honestly and efficiently. Which is what establishment Republicans always tend to say. (The Dems, on the other side, stay in power by promising each of their constituencies their own piece of the action, even though that often doesn't mean money, but rather things like affirmative action and jailing cops who have the temerity to kill violent black hoodlums. Good governance works electorally when the economy is humming along, as it was when JEB's brother ran for President (and JEB likely would have had an easier time winning than his brother, if he had won his 1994 election like his brother had).
But, that isn't what the average GOP voter wants right now. The people backing JEB aren't worried about their next paycheck, but rather, whether their next vacation will take them out of the country. And, if it can, how far? Jeb is dumping millions of dollars from those who expect to financially benefit from a third Bush Presidency with major media buys, and it isn't buying needed votes. Because the average GOP voter wants to hear Trump (or Cruz, or maybe even Christie) tell the MSM to shove it up their posteriors.
Here is another part of the secret that is likely powering part of the enmity towards Trump. And, that is that he is attractive to a lot of lower middle class minorities. The Black middle class, in particular, has been devastated by Obama and the Dems over the last 7 years, but many second (etc) generation Hispanics are in the same boat. A lot of them like the way that Trump talks to them and the MSM. Why are the MSM and the Dems in power petrified of Trump? Because he could potentially take a lot of these minority voters away from them. None of the Dem candidates have a drop of minority blood, and most of them are pretty old, besides being pasty white. What loyalty do they have to the Dem party? Obama isn't running, and why vote for a honky who just wants to pay off this old white backers?
Telling it like it is, instead of using high faluting words, and talking down at their audiences, is part of his key for success. He is plain speaking, when so many of their betters are not. And, a lot of this was a result of his successful TV career. Ask yourself, who would watch Celebrity Apprentice? And, you can see why he is such a danger to the Dems.
[Trump] has shattered the democrat coalition. The blue collar middle class that used to vote for democrats are his primary constituency,
Blue collar hasn't been part of the Dem coalition for several elections other than niche union fetishists. The Dem coalition is government / NGO workers, the poor, aggrieved minorities, and abortion voters.
I do not trust Donald Trump to recognize Leviathan as the enemy of the people. Every time he says he'll do it smarter or better, I want to hear somebody say 'we should do it less' because the federal government is killing this country.
"The Ku Klux Klan is using Donald Trump as a talking point in its outreach efforts. Stormfront, the most prominent American white supremacist website, is upgrading its servers in part to cope with a Trump traffic spike."
the leading gop contenda...
the leading gop contenda...
And criminals are overwhelmingly pro-Democrat.
I suppose you had a point in mind.
machine
Only lefties, progressives, spend time on the KKK and Stormfront sites. It is quite amazing how up to date you racist fascists are on what is trending on the racist and fascist internets.
Even though South Park has mocked Trump, there is a lot of South Park Republican appeal to Trump: Fellow co-creator Matt Stone sums up their views with the comment, "I hate conservatives, but I really fucking hate liberals.
At least Trump acts like he thinks people should not be annihilated by terrorists. Our president seems to be willing to sacrifice a bunch of folks to killers before he does something about it.
I'd say 2 more attacks before he is forced to do some things that will hurt people's feelings.
Hillary, on the other hand, would throw every Muslim in America under the bus if she needed to.
The KKK is as prevalent as Passenger Pigeons. Mentioning them cartoon politics.
"Shattered the Dem coalition"? How so? No, I don't see that at all. Democrats are overwhelmingly against most things Trump has spewed and have rejected him and his platform (if he truly even has one) across the Democratic and Progressive/liberal base. Trump's rantings are anathema to Democrats. Trump will not be getting Dem votes in any significant number. Trump speaks to the xenophobia of the right, the left are appalled at his antics across the board among liberals, Progressives and Democrates.
Try to read one of his speeches word for word, you can't, even my 8th grade education can not decipher him. Every speech brakes down to "I'm really, really great and if you elect me then America will be great again, and I'll own America then caus you elected me and so it's mine".
Douthat in the Times has an excellent column today comparing the GOP race to the Wallace/Nixon candidacy in 1968. The difference being in 2015 there is no Nixon to the Wallace/Trump. That is, no Republican establishment candidate who has the credibility on immigration and terror to counter Trump's extremism (my word).
Douthat: "The problem for the G.O.P. is that it’s [i.e., Trump's appeal] centered where national security and immigration intersect — the place where the Republican leadership’s credibility and authority with its own supporters is weakest."
Still, like Wallace I don't see Trump getting more than 30% of the GOP vote. Provided we're not hit again.
If so, then everything is up for grabs.
Rush just made a point about the KKK and Trump. And that was that reporters around the country are just not finding people who used to support him being turned off by his points on illegals and muzzies. Rather, they are apparently finding just the opposite, a lot of people who like Trump, but are scared to admit it publically. So, the MSM (mostly Dems with bylines) have been throwing whatever they can against the wall, hoping that something sticks. And, so far it hasn't. So, some Kluckers like Trump? BFD. Even mentioning this is guilt by (minor) association. The question is whether Trump emphasizes with them, and he hasn't given any evidence that he does (and, most likely, does not).
My thoughts as to the Klan, is that they have been without a political home since LBJ steered the Dem party away from them. They have never been accepted or acceptable with the Republican party, and, indeed, were founded to fight Republican imposed Reconstruction. The more unreconstructed of them still had a token place in the Dem party, at least until the death of former KKK Grand Kleagle and Senate President, Robert "Sheets" Byrd. And, yes, it was fascinating watching how all those prominent progressive Dem politicians couldn't say enough good things about him in their eulogies, despite the white elephant/sheets in the room at the time. Yes, former (and maybe present) Klan members seem to be moving towards the Party of Lincoln, in default. But, they aren't welcomed, despite all the leftists here hoping against hope that pointing out that they like Trump is going to affect his prospects one bit. It isn't, because most everyone today knows better.
"Shattered the Dem coalition"? How so? No, I don't see that at all. Democrats are overwhelmingly against most things Trump has spewed and have rejected him and his platform (if he truly even has one) across the Democratic and Progressive/liberal base.
The middle class Dems remaining have been screwed over by Obama. Blacks have been screwed over royally. There is an opening, if you wish to admit it or not.
You're going to get people to stand in line...to vote for Hillary? She doesn't inspire passion in her own family, much less the voters. And she is so insanely dirty and corrupt.
Hillary must be feeling good about this. It is going as planned.
Trump may not need more than 30% of the vote to win the nomination, and, after that, the question is how many establishment Republicans will hold their noses and vote for him, instead of the most corrupt nominee of probably the last century, Hillary Clinton. And, sorry Amanda, but you are wrong about Trump having cross-over appeal. The polls show that he does. Maybe not a huge amount, but it appears that he has more appeal with Blacks and Hispanics than did Romney or McCain. And, of course, esp. with lower middle class Whites, which had been the mainstay of the Dem party for better than 200 years. Many of them have switched parties by now, but enough remain that their turning on Hillary may affect the results of the election (even when she talks with a Arkansas cracker accent).
Amanda
Sorry, but you progressives have ignored the blue collar or mocked them. And they have noticed. They will either stay at home or go elsewhere. The" Democrats" you note are those tucked into your bubble. The others you know absolutely nothing about other than their poor dining and clothing choices.
Excellent clear eyed posts by Bruce Hayden. A nice antidote to the petty emotionalism displayed by so many.
I see that Trump just cancelled his trip to Israel because Netanyahu hurt his feelings by not supporting his Muslim ban proposal. Trump Presidential material? Not so much. But those who love him don't seem to care. The rest of us do and that's one reason he won't win the White House. He will be an asterisk of history.
In the future people will use the word 'Trump' to mean someone who takes an extreme and unreasonably conservative position to gain media attention. "Oh, he's a Trump." "What a Trump." "He [or she] is trying to Trump us."
Still, like Wallace I don't see Trump getting more than 30% of the GOP vote. Provided we're not hit again
Just to clarify: Wallace ran as an independent and not in the GOP primaries. He got about 13% of the vote. But both Nixon and he were battling over the same vote.
I still think Trump will run as an independent if Cruz doesn't win the nomination. The GOP establishment still has enough muscle to prevent Trump's nomination. If Cruz wins he'll do enough to satisfy Trump; but Rubio or the others won't and Trump will storm out in protest.
Hell, at this point I don't know .
Michael,
You couldn't be more mistaken. Democrats, rich poor and middle class alike despise Trump and will not vote for him. If Trump would actually get the nomination, the exit polls after the general election will tell the tale of who actually voted for Trump and it won't have been Democrats. Trump will hand this Presidency to Hillary. It will have been those unfortunate conservatives of the poor and working classes who regularily vote against their own best interests. It's almost as if they think they too can be rich if they vote for billionaires...or some other unfathomable reason.
Amanda
Sorry but your bubble of left wing commentary has caused you to miss the financial agony the current administration has inflicted on the blue collar worker who has historically voted Democrat. They do not care about global warming. They do not care about social justice. They do not care about many, or most, of the things that Progressives hold dear. You shall learn this soon and the hard way. Clinton does not resonate with this crowd. They are concerned about their financial future and about their safety. They are gun owners. They hunt and fish. You are deluding yourself if you think the hipster left and right coasts represent this vast segment of the voting public. They are pissed.
And these men and women do not read the Daily Kos. They do not read Mother Jones. They do not watch MSNBC. They do not read the Huffington Post.
But they speak plainly to each other.
Michael, I suspect you know little to nothing about poor and working class Democrats. You sound like you're trying to convince yourself. You certainly don't convince me that you truly know any real live Democrats that would vote for Trump.
Amanda
Your suspicion would be very wrong.
If Trump wins the WH, Bill will attend the Inauguration but Hillary won't.
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