October 20, 2015

Fiorina's peak — at 15% — is in the past. She's down 11 points to 4%.

That's 7th place in the new CNN/ORC poll.

Trump and Carson romp on the peak, at 27% and 22%, and nobody else is higher than 8%.

How does it feel, losing the dream of a tough female fighting Hillary? The embodiment of feminism as conservatism, gone poof.

53 comments:

Scott said...

It's fascinating to watch how Hillary Clinton's road to the Presidency is being built in front of her.

David Begley said...

Way too negative.

It is very, very early.


We don't have a national primary. It is state by state. Carly will do well in Iowa and NH.

tim maguire said...

She's most likely falling because she's out of the public eye, the memory of her debate performance fading. Let's see what happens at the next debate. At some point, she'll have to depend on her own operation to keep her name in the news, but she is someone whose numbers go up when people see and hear her.

EMD said...

Polling is almost irrelevant until the field is narrowed.

EMD said...

To add, it's who has the cash and the ground game to make a difference in the coming months. Carson may have that, he may not.

Static Ping said...

One poll proves nothing even if it was done competently and in good faith. At 95% confidence, 1 out of 20 will be a clunker.

Wake me up after Iowa.

Brando said...

The polls are going to bounce around a lot, and there's no telling who is going to end up with the GOP nomination by the time this is over, but I'm pretty sure of one thing--the GOP is going to blow the general election by hobbling its nominee. To win next year, the GOP nominee needs to do some combination of (1) excite enough conservatives to get out and vote and volunteer; (2) win over enough moderates to cobble together a majority; and (3) do this without also motivating enough leftists to come out and vote against him (1 should outweigh 3 at least).

I don't see how this can happen with the GOP voter base as split as they are, and with the types of attacks the candidates are leveling at each other. Hillary won't have to do much to attack these guys--their primary opponents are doing the job quite well, just as they did four years ago.

Maybe someday in the future this will change and the GOP can win the presidency again, but for now it is a state-level and congressional party made of disparate factions (not unlike the old Democratic party, except even that one could win convincing presidential elections as well. With the exception of 2004, no GOP nominee has won a majority since 1988, and looks to extend that streak).

chickelit said...

How does it feel, losing the dream of a tough female fighting Hillary? The embodiment of feminism as conservatism, gone poof.

She'd probably be leading -- Althouse included -- had she gone all poofter.

And who the hell is for Jeb Bush? I haven't read a commenter strongly supporting him since cedarford.

tim in vermont said...

Trump is such a tool, but he is using "game" on conservatives and they are lapping it up, the way marks always do.

TreeJoe said...

I think it's interesting that CNN is trying to push Carly down with this poll. I wonder if they deliberately structured it that way.

There is a strong movement among leftist media outlets to softly promote candidates they feel would never win and then, as they gain traction, say "look how insane the right is that they like this person!" - they want someone to win the primary who could never win the general.

I'm also shocked - shocked - that CNN/ABC/CBS/NYT/WaPo haven't highlighted how the Republican primary is a beautifully diverse picture of America - men, women, hispanic, black, white, rich folks and people who recently had little money/poor background. Younger and older.

And then there's the Democratic side: Rich. Old. White.

Fernandinande said...

How does it feel, losing the dream of a tough female fighting Hillary?

Dream turns to nightmare - boo!

The embodiment of feminism as conservatism, gone poof.

Feminism is a subset of socialism, so that can't happen.

Left Bank of the Charles said...

I think it's understood she is running for Vice President. Trump Carson works better than Trump Fiorina, which Trump himself has signaled. Carly has to break through the understanding she's only running for Vice President to rise higher, but maybe Vice President is her objective.

tim maguire said...

Brando said...With the exception of 2004, no GOP nominee has won a majority since 1988, and looks to extend that streak).

Aren't you overstating things a bit there? The Republicans held for 3 terms, then the Democrats for 2, then the Republicans for 2, then the Democrats for 2. That's kind of how it works in this country.

Big Mike said...

How does it feel, losing the dream of a tough female fighting Hillary? The embodiment of feminism as conservatism, gone poof.

The dream shall never die!

Someday you'll stop fooling yourself that you understand about politics, and this will be your first step on the road to enlightenment.

Laslo Spatula said...

I think referring to Carly's 'peaks' is a micro-aggression.

I am Laslo.

AReasonableMan said...

There is a simple although largely unexplored reason for Fiorina's failure to launch, her messy personal life. Women are judged much more harshly for this than men, particularly by other women. She is divorced, has no children, her step daughter died of a drug overdose, she had an affair with senior AT&T executive Frank Fiorina while still married to her first husband, this does not spell success in the eyes of many women. As these details became more broadly known her polls plummeted.

Life isn't fair. Jeb Bush has problems of his own in this area. Ironically Trump, based on the success of his children, has some claim to be a reasonably good family man.

pm317 said...

I am surprised at how quickly and easily she fizzled out.

Brando said...

"Aren't you overstating things a bit there? The Republicans held for 3 terms, then the Democrats for 2, then the Republicans for 2, then the Democrats for 2. That's kind of how it works in this country."

I'm looking at two things: (1) the electoral college trend, which gives Dems an advantage for the past quarter century, and means the GOP can only win if it runs the table on a number of key swing states (had one swing state gone the other way in 2000 and in 2004, the Dem streak would be unbroken), and (2) the nature of the two parties' coalitions. Both coalitions are somewhat diverse, but the Dems are more united by this idea that the GOP is the worst thing ever, so there's still this "let's not criticize Hillary too much, if she's our nominee we don't want to do the Republicans' work for them" attitude which while disgusting (when it means ignoring real defects in their candidate) does ultimately help them keep the coalition together. The GOP though is usually such a mudfight that by the time the nomination is sealed, the nominee has had to pander so far to GOP constituencies (libertarians, religious right, warhawks, big business) that they are at a big disadvantage in appealing outside the GOP for the general.

We'll see if the trend continues this year.

Eleanor said...

We've been getting robocalls asking for campaign contributions for Carson. Since no one in this house is a registered Republican, I'm assuming he's just running the phone book.

Writ Small said...

Trump is such a tool, but he is using "game" on conservatives and they are lapping it up, the way marks always do.

Written in the style of a high school douchebag, but basically correct.

Trump is always in the headlines with borderline outrageous statements, which upon closer inspection and in context, aren't all that bad. His reputation sinks among his headline-only-reading detractors and rises with his fans a la Rush Limbaugh, but the main effect is to prevent his primary opponents from getting much coverage.

Ambrose said...

It may be an unpopular observation - but a lot of Republican voters are pro-choice. Carly transitioned from the "CEO-candidate" to the anti-abortion candidate - and hit a wall.

rhhardin said...

Carly is a PC feminist. It doesn't resonate for the same reason Trump is popular. PC is the problem.

Get PC ridiculed out of the news narrative and every problem is then open to solution. That won't happen with Carly.

Hillary isn't her competition in the vagina stakes, just more opportunistic PC.

Meade said...

Ditto Ambrose.

ndspinelli said...

chick, Peyton and Gomer Manning are for Jeb. They both donated the max, $2700 to Jeb.

damikesc said...

Well, the press ignores who they wish to ignore.

There is a simple although largely unexplored reason for Fiorina's failure to launch, her messy personal life. Women are judged much more harshly for this than men, particularly by other women. She is divorced, has no children, her step daughter died of a drug overdose, she had an affair with senior AT&T executive Frank Fiorina while still married to her first husband, this does not spell success in the eyes of many women. As these details became more broadly known her polls plummeted.

Hillary has an infinitely uglier story to deal with. Republicans need to make David Brock and Sidney Blumenthal household names and tie them, like a noose, around her neck. Make her explain how anybody can be friends with shits like them because nobody can look at either of them and come away with her being a good judge of character.

Constantly reference her belief that women accusing people of sexual assault should be believed and mention all of the women her husband treated Hillary like a doormat with and she kept taking him back (if she won't stand up to her husband, why would Putin take her seriously?)

Constantly mention her brothers and their unbelievably corrupt profiteering off her name.

Mention how Bush's daughters did work for the public good while Hillary's daughter is sucking cash off the teat of the rich and powerful like nobody's business (with the bonus of hobbling Chelsea's undoubted political ambitions).

Trump is always in the headlines with borderline outrageous statements, which upon closer inspection and in context, aren't all that bad. His reputation sinks among his headline-only-reading detractors and rises with his fans a la Rush Limbaugh, but the main effect is to prevent his primary opponents from getting much coverage.

He's one of the very few candidates (Cruz is the other one) who I think will do a suitably harsh campaign against Hillary.

Hell, constantly cite how terrible things are economically while citing the Democrat debate and remind people that these people ran the show for the last 8 years.

rhhardin said...

but a lot of Republican voters are pro-choice

Social conservatives vs fiscal conservatives. The former can turn off the latter, at which point the Democrats win.

wildswan said...

Getting media coverage by way of news stories is the way to rise in the polls. If he bleeds, he leads.

Trump really understands this - every day a new controversy. Every day a story about how the GOP and Democrats hate him. GO TRUMP, I think, but really I don't support him. Hilary is being covered because of the email scandal and Benghazi. Ben Carson attacked the idea of a Muslim President and there were allegations about leaving a sponge in Hilary's brain or using Hilary's brain as a sponge or something.

And these three are at the top. Attacks cause candidates to rise included truthful attacks.

But is this simply because the election is so far away that this is all really another gladiatorial spectator sport like Monday Night Football? Or is the nation dividing as in 1850?

Once written, twice... said...

The Hillbilly Caucus that now makes up most of the Republican Party would never accept a woman or a minority as the nominee. No going to happen.

traditionalguy said...

Carly we hardly knew you. But she understood Hillary like only another woman could.

Pookie Number 2 said...

How does it feel, losing the dream of a tough female fighting Hillary?

It feels pretty bad - we lose the automatic identity-politics vote of the law professor/blogress demographic.

tim maguire said...

Ambrose said...It may be an unpopular observation - but a lot of Republican voters are pro-choice. Carly transitioned from the "CEO-candidate" to the anti-abortion candidate - and hit a wall.

The devil is in the details. The American public is far closer to the mainstream Republican position on abortion than it is to the mainstream Democratic position. The problem is the Republicans still haven't found a way to fight back against media framing of the issue. (And they can, the media is not nearly as all-powerful as it was when Reagan won despite it.)

Gahrie said...

The dream is not dead...Carly will be the VP nominee.

Titus said...

she needs to talk more explicitly about baby parts-that will get her up there.

FWBuff said...

Carly is still a force. She's gearing up for next week's debate and will get another bounce.

damikesc said...

The Hillbilly Caucus that now makes up most of the Republican Party would never accept a woman or a minority as the nominee. No going to happen.

Minorities are CLEANING UP in the Dem nomination process. That wide range of color and beliefs, from white socialists to borderline opaque socialists.

Dr.D said...

It feels great. It is nice to see that women do not run everything. There is no reason, none whatsoever, why we NEED a woman president. Look what that has done for Germany! What we need is a PRESIDENT, not a wimp, not a dictator, but someone who has ideas, is able to build support for his ideas, and get vast numbers others to help implement them. This does not mean simply appointing a few close acolytes as CZARS, but rather getting national support in every state. I see no evidence of any woman able to come close to that.

HoodlumDoodlum said...

Ann Althouse said...How does it feel, losing the dream of a tough female fighting Hillary? The embodiment of feminism as conservatism, gone poof.

Eh, I dunno. How does it feel to have liberal feminism exposed as hollow and/or false through its fawning praise (or at the very least lack of criticism) of both Hillary and Bill Clinton? Candidates come and go, you know, but showing the world you shouldn't be taken seriously (as feminists who defended Bill Clinton and who treat Hillary Clinton as a feminist in good standing) lasts a good long while.

tim in vermont said...

I heard Trump yammering on as to how he would have prevented 9-11. He is a fool. 9-11 could have been prevented. Clinton could have not launched a pointless missile attack on Afghanistan to distract from his domestic problems.

tim in vermont said...

One problem is that a lot of Republicans accept the MSM explanation that those videos were faked. This hurt her because there was no way the MSM was going to examine the reality behind Murder Incorporated. She was a fool to think they would, same as McCain was a fool to think the press actually liked him as anything other than a zoo specimen.

Bruce Hayden said...

It think that if Hillary is the Dem nominee, Fiorinas is the Rep VP nominee, almost regardless of who gets the top slot. Fiorinas is the anti-Hillary, the Hillary killer. There are some other Rep women who could do the job, but Fiorinas is being vetted and blooded, so no Sarah Palin, which might be the case with other Rep wmen. But, if the Dem nominee is Slo Joe Biden, I think the better VP nominee might be Dr Carson. Problem there is that taking on Biden may require a more deft touch, given his mental issues.

rehajm said...

Polling is in trouble. In Europe. In Canada. They'll be wrong here.

Bruce Hayden said...

The devil is in the details. The American public is far closer to the mainstream Republican position on abortion than it is to the mainstream Democratic position. The problem is the Republicans still haven't found a way to fight back against media framing of the issue. (And they can, the media is not nearly as all-powerful as it was when Reagan won despite it.)

And Fiorinas is the one who can and has made this argument. When attacked as extreme as a pro-lifer, she flipped the script, and asked about Hillary's position, which is far more out of the mainstream (HRC apparently supports 9th month abortions and oppose Born Alive legislation). This is what needs to be done here - force Hillary and her minions, backers, and the MSM to defend third semester abortions, selling baby parts, etc. Mainstream is drawing the line somewhere around viability, and then limiting 3rd trimester abortions to serious threats to a woman's physical (and not mental) health. It would be allowed when the choice is between the mother' and her baby's life, and otherwise seriously limited 3rd trimester. That is what the polls have been saying for a long time - it is just that the Dems With Bylines (I.e. the MSM) keep making the debate about the 1st trimester, which thanks to Roe v Wade isn't changing any time in the foreseeable future. As I said, Fiorina is the one who has successfully flipped the script here, and it needs to be done by a woman, and needs it to be done to neutralize it as a campaign issue.

jimbino said...

A person content to enslave women to baby-making deserves to go down ASAP.

Nichevo said...

"How does it feel" can only be a childish taunt, Althouse, and to someone who doesn't feel the burn, you are only puzzling and lame. What can you possibly be about?

David said...

Don't be so sure. Females can have multiple peaks.

jimbino said...

A person content to enslave women to baby-making deserves to go down ASAP.

John Scott said...

Ditto Tim Maguire (8:40)

n.n said...

So, Fiorina may not become president. There are still many critical positions to be filled by qualified people.

That said, respect the woman, respect the baby. Fiorina has taken a step in the right direction.

Michael K said...

"Trump, based on the success of his children, has some claim to be a reasonably good family man."

Four families, actually. Silly comment.

I think the media is going to try to kill Fiorina's campaign because of her description of the videos. They are now her enemy even more than an enemy of Republicans.

Leora said...

I had noticed that she had become the invisible woman in free media while Ben Carson is everywhere. Only Trump and Carson are getting daily coverage.

Job said...

"A person content to enslave women to baby-making deserves to go down ASAP."

Stupidest comment on the innerwebs. Congratulations.

chickelit said...

Job said...
"A person content to enslave women to baby-making deserves to go down ASAP."

Stupidest comment on the innerwebs. Congratulations.


Jimbino's really stupid stuff was how he used to see everything through the lens of race in National Parks. Longtime (and attentive) Althouse readers will know exactly what I'm talking about.

As for Althouse and Fiorina -- since Althouse believes that Fiorina was lying about the PP videos (you can look it up in the record here), it's no surprise that she's smug about Fiorina's slump.

Her next smugly outburst in politics will happen when Ben Carson falters. Despite all her faux support for "African Americans," Althouse will never forgive Carson for his stance on gay marriage. She's just waiting for the right moment to plunge the dagger.

Rick Caird said...

"Althouse will never forgive Carson for his stance on gay marriage. She's just waiting for the right moment to plunge the dagger."

The only dagger Althouse has is a rubber dagger. Has anyone ever changed his opinion because Althouse was on the other side? I didn't think so.