August 13, 2015

Trump stole Walker's Iowa mojo.

Look at that graph!

IN THE COMMENTS: William said:
Look at the artistry with which Trump approaches the problem of thinning hair versus Walker's bland acceptance of his bald spot. Trump will approach America's problems with that same artistry and optimism. Walker will present tonsured budgets and austerity during his watch. America is the land of comb overs.

35 comments:

Big Mike said...

@Althouse, it's almost 6 months until the Iowa caucuses. Take a deep breath. Exhale. Relax. Repeat

pm317 said...

Panic on the Dems, panic on the Reps, panic everywhere, even in Althouse household.

Ann Althouse said...

@Big Mike

You misinterpret my emotional state.

I'm very much distanced from the chaos. Enjoying it almost, because I want to stand off and this facilitates and enhances my natural stand-offishness. It's the best place to be: distanced. Chaos is very unpleasant when you get caught up in in.

David said...

Trump has stolen everyone's mojo. Should they just wait it out or attack? Attack has the highest risk but also the highest reward potential. Someone should do it. Perhaps Carly. She should challenge Trump to a series of one on one debates. They set them up. They pay for them. The rest of the candidates can watch.

One of them will emerge stronger. Perhaps both will.

Right now they are all thinking along the same lines. Except Trump. He does not think in lines.

Are there any other non-linear thinkers in the Republican race?

cubanbob said...

So far its all been entertaining. Sanders the communist with his replay of the 1972 Children's' Crusade. Hillary starting to look like Nixon in early 1973. Trump sounding like Crazy Eddie. All we need now is Disco and we can have a '70's party.

Peter said...

I don't think Walker is much interested in going into attack mode, at least not yet. BUT perhaps he'll have to be less play-it-safe cautious?

Quaestor said...

The quick and dirty explanation of that graph is likely Republican voters in Iowa, who have heretofore support Scott Walker, have suddenly switched allegiance to Donald Trump. The poll shows Trump stealing mojo from other candidates but a point here and a half a point there.

Are Carly Fiorina supporters thoughtful and steady while Walker supporters are unreflective and fickle?

The problem is Walker has been relying on his reputation and has been lying low, avoiding controversy. He can't win with a strategy like that. Get his mojo back he needs to juice his moxie (colloquial enough?)

pm317 said...

It's the best place to be: distanced.

Yes. But your visceral disdain for Trump puts you right in the middle of the chaos. OTH, I feel truly liberated this election season. I don't have a dog in this fight, not Hillary, not Trump and God forbid, not any of those other Republicans like Jeb! So I am truly enjoying this spectacle.

Quaestor said...

Walker doesn't need to attack. None of the candidates needs or should attack Trump, let the Enemy do that. Who they should be attacking is Hillary and Bernie and most of all Lord Zero himself, because what will Clinton or Sanders or any proglodyte Democrat do except grease the skids of the great Obama Bobsled to Ruin?

Bay Area Guy said...

Trump was on Hannity last night, trying to talk substance. It was a good effort, but I would say 2 things: on charisma, Trump gets an A+, but on substance, he's nothing compared to Walker. He was very unimpressive and disorganized.

Brando said...

"She should challenge Trump to a series of one on one debates."

Actually all the candidates should have a series of one on one debates with each other--carry them all on YouTube so people can see how they fare against the others, and hopefully some substantive discussion will ensue.

"All we need now is Disco and we can have a '70's party."

Well, crime rates are starting to go back up....

Eric the Fruit Bat said...

It just took Trump a little time to cure his lack of name recognition.

traditionalguy said...

I blame it on the Harley. Scott is riding around the midwest on a fancy noise making two wheeler compared to Donald's three seven million dollar turbojet Helos soaring far overhead.

Glamour and going places to win
leadership trumps silliness of mid life crisis Harley riding to impress voters.

Known Unknown said...

"leadership trumps silliness"

Nice word play?

William said...

Look at the artistry with which Trump approaches the problem of thinning hair versus Walker's bland acceptance of his bald spot. Trump will approach America's problems with that same artistry and optimism. Walker will present tonsured budgets and austerity during his watch. America is the land of comb overs.

George Grady said...

The timing is all wrong for your interpretation. When Trump's numbers went up, Walker's were still up. It was only just afterward that Walker's went down by half. Walker's mojo was stolen by Carson, Rubio, and Cruz.

Can Of Cheese for Hunter said...

Hillary(D) will get 40%, Trump(I) 21%, GOPe(R) 39% (Walker or Cruz for instance) and Hillary will win.

sinz52 said...

George Grady:

Correct.

If you expand the horizontal scale to focus only on the month of August, you find that Walker's numbers started dropping after August 9.

And there's an entirely different reason for that, which was discussed on other conservative forums. It was revealed that one or two of Walker's top campaign officials are moderates (or as the GOP base calls them, "RINOs") who have dissed conservatives in the past.

Writ Small said...

"Attack has the highest risk but also the highest reward potential."

This sounds plausible, but it is wrong. All of the direct attackers in 2012 (think Bachmann and Perry), or prior to the last debate this cycle (think Perry), or during the last debate (think Christie and Paul) damaged themselves as much or more than they damaged their targets. In scientific polls of who "lost" the last debate (not who won), first through third went to Trump, Paul and Christie.

I've said it before. The Republican nomination process is a demolition derby. The ultimate winner will not be the one launching direct attacks and repeatedly getting into scrapes.

Whether that person is ultimately Walker is looking increasingly doubtful, however. I like the guy, but he doesn't seem to speak with conviction outside of his core strengths (taking on unions, etc.). Fortunately, there are plenty of strong candidates to choose from if Walker fades.

Anonymous said...

The respective dip and rise came directly after the debates.

Known Unknown said...

"In scientific polls of who "lost" the last debate (not who won), first through third went to Trump, Paul and Christie. "

Then how does that poll not affect the overall polls on Trump, who saw gains post-debate?

Paul said...

"Hillary(D) will get 40%, Trump(I) 21%, GOPe(R) 39% (Walker or Cruz for instance) and Hillary will win."

She can't possibly win as she will not be the nominee. The DOJ investigation would not happen without Obama's imprimatur. He is sabotaging her campaign, and at some point the whole party will collude with him.

Big Mike said...

Chaos is very unpleasant when you get caught up in in [sic].

I'm retired now, but back in my days in IT I found myself enjoying the chaos of a program in trouble. When the excrement is upon the fan blades and our project is in the breeze, this was a very heady time juggling problems to solve versus schedule versus staff talents.

The problem is getting to like chaos too much, because I discovered some software developers seem to instigate IT challenges, so as to enjoy the excitement and to reap the rewards for putting in long hours and pulling something that looks vaguely like success out of the rubble. I learned to avoid folks like that.

Titus said...

Panic on the streets of London
Panic on the streets of Birmingham
I wonder to myself
Could life ever be sane again ?
The Leeds side-streets that you slip down
I wonder to myself
Hopes may rise on the Grasmere
But Honey Pie, you're not safe here
So you run down
To the safety of the town
But there's Panic on the streets of Carlisle
Dublin, Dundee, Humberside
I wonder to myself

Burn down the disco
Hang the blessed DJ
Because the music that they constantly play
IT SAYS NOTHING TO ME ABOUT MY LIFE
Hang the blessed DJ
Because the music they constantly play


On the Leeds side-streets that you slip down
Provincial towns you jog 'round
Hang the DJ, Hang the DJ, Hang the DJ
Hang the DJ, Hang the DJ, Hang the DJ
HANG THE DJ, HANG THE DJ, HANG THE DJ
HANG THE DJ, HANG THE DJ
HANG THE DJ, HANG THE DJ
Hang the DJ, Hang the DJ, Hang the DJ
HANG THE DJ, HANG THE DJ
HANG THE DJ, HANG THE DJ
Hang the DJ, Hang the DJ, Hang the DJ
HANG THE DJ, HANG THE DJ
HANG THE DJ, HANG THE DJ
Hang the DJ, Hang the DJ, Hang the DJ
HANG THE DJ

Original Mike said...

Clinton's "People do trust me" reminds me of Nixon's "I am not a crook".

damikesc said...

Immigration is totally not an issue, right?

I agree that Republicans need to show anger --- genuine anger --- at what Obama has done and plans on doing (he plans on utterly raping ND with his new, likely illegal EPA rules). His not-hidden attacks on "red" states need to be attacked as the bitterly divisive bullshit they are. He needs to be compared to such Democrat luminaries as James Buchanan and Franklin Pierce who, similarly, bitterly divided this country.

And as far as attacking Trump --- do you see Hillary attacking Sanders? What's the point of attacking your own party?

machine said...

maybe the take 250 million from education and then give 250 million to your millionaire donor plan backfired....jus sayin

traditionalguy said...

Also poor Scott loses to Donald in the Trophy Wife Wars.

Trump kept marrying and remarrying it until he got it right. Trump once bought Herschel Walker for his USFL New Jersey team. He pays for the best and gets it.

walter said...

"America is the land of comb overs."

Then there's Biden..

mikee said...

I use the simple metric of "who would I want to hear talking about stuff over the next four years" to select my candidate.

Trump I can take in small doses, like one episode of The Apprentice.

bbkingfish said...

Since the debate, Scott Walker is the only candidate to have lost ground in every poll.


garage mahal said...

So Walker's idiotic Kohl's Curve isn't fooling anyone outside Wisconsin? No way!

Writ Small said...

"In scientific polls of who "lost" the last debate (not who won), first through third went to Trump, Paul and Christie. "

Then how does that poll not affect the overall polls on Trump, who saw gains post-debate?


Trump has not seen gains post-debate. His rise came prior to the debate and he has been statistically flat to slightly down since. National polls show this more clearly, but the Iowa polls are consistent with that. Walker's fall, on the other hand, did immediately follow the debate.

Trump was also top three in answer to this poll question: "Who won the debate?" Trump was very high in both lists. Walker made little impression in either.

You can see from the Iowa polls who gained most post-debate: Rubio, Cruz, Carson, and Fiorina. They were passionate and articulate, and they refrained from attacking fellow Republicans. Walker and Jeb, former front-runners who tanked after the debate, lacked passion, but they also lived to fight another day. Trump was quite passionate, but his attacks are putting a ceiling on his total support that will become more apparent as the field shrinks.

Cynicus said...

Scott Walker just needs a better parody twitter account. Who can compete with this: https://mobile.twitter.com/Writeintrump

grackle said...

I’m finding it difficult believing pre-debate Walker supporters are a natural post-debate crossover to Trump. But if it were true it would mean, wouldn’t it, that Trump has a broad appeal across the GOP demographic spectrum? Perhaps not just “crazies?”

On another subject:

Trump has not seen gains post-debate.

There’s only one poll(Rasmussen 8/9 – 8/10) listed on the RCP polling data chart that was taken after the debate, which occurred on 8/6.

I think the spread, that is, how much the frontrunners are ahead of the second place finishers over a period of time, is the real story embedded in the polls.

According to all the RCP polling data since the polling started - from before Trump announced up to now, the lead has changed multiple times, at first alternating between several candidates by small spreads with Christi being the highest, leading by +9 in November(CNN/ORC 11/18 – 11/20).

There was never a leader with a double digit lead until Trump, who has fluctuated between single digit and double digit spreads – the highest being +14 and the lowest being +2. Trump has had 7 single digit spreads and 6 double digit spreads since he’s entered the race. And he has been ahead since he entered.

To see all this go here:

http://tinyurl.com/pdcjjxq

Scroll to the graph. In the lower right corner set the graph from “6M” to “MAX” and scroll down to “Polling Data.”

My point is that one or two single digit spreads of Trump’s lead does not represent any sort of trend. He’s been there before. Perhaps 3 or 4 in a row could represent a trend but brief fluctuations mean very little.