July 1, 2015

"Notably absent from this top five... are Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (6%, down from 14% in May) and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (6%, down slightly from 10%)."

"Both had been top five candidates in each of the last two CNN/ORC polls, and Walker had been in the top five since February."
Trump's competitiveness among those older and more conservative Republicans also helps explain Walker's and Rubio's declines. In April, 16% of Republicans age 50 or older backed Rubio, 14% Walker. Now, Rubio has just 6% among this group and Walker has 7%. Trump grew from 2% in May to 14% now."
Wow. Trump is really helping Jeb!

That's an exclamation point at the the end of a sentence I'm exclaiming, not me doing the Jeb! logo.

Anyway, Jeb is at 19% in the new poll, up from 13% in May. So, the high-name-recognition Trump is drawing attention away from the newcomerish Walker and Rubio, right when they need to get traction. It's all working out as if Jeb! and Trump! planned it all in a backroom.

37 comments:

rhhardin said...

The ! is like the period at the end of the WSJ banner.

rhhardin said...

New (OT) edition of Law Talk on SSM and Obamacare with Epstein and Yoo mp3 that I'll listen to once Imus recording is over.

MadisonMan said...

Like anyone seriously thinks Trump has a chance to win.

It is possible that Wisconsin's budget troubles, or the WEDC press, is dragging down Walker. Or he's just now shiny and new anymore.

Oooh! Shiny! That describes Trump's hair, perhaps, but little else about him.

tim maguire said...

It wouldn't much matter if debate and donation decisions weren't being made based on these polls. They have the potential to become self-fulfilling prophecies, to our country's detriment.

Ann Althouse said...

"Like anyone seriously thinks Trump has a chance to win."

Well, that certainly wasn't my point.

Did I fail to say "Jeb!" enough?

David said...

So is it over for Walker before it begins? May well be.

MadisonMan said...

*not* -- not now.

I blame the wretched music on at this Coffeeshop.

Brando said...

These polls are notoriously volatile and not particularly reliable (when the margin of error is often greater than some candidates' leads) which is why using them to determine who gets into debates is going to be a problem.

If the GOP needs debates at all, split up the candidates in various groups of six or fewer, giving everyone a chance to speak in the forum. Last time they had over 20 debates, likely they will have even more this cycle. Instead of trying to make sure all the "front runners" are in each debate, accept the fact that with so many polling so close to one another there really is no obvious "front runner" (except possibly Jeb, if he seems to constantly lead) and if the point of debates is to get everyone a chance to display themselves, it makes sense to have a rotating group of six or fewer.

Michael K said...

Trump is a clown and Republicans who support him deserve what they get.

Brando said...

As for Trump--I'm waiting for the point at which he announces his entire persona as a conservative was just a Colbert-esque ruse to mock the right wing.

Larry J said...

This is yet another example of poll-based "horserace" reporting. They have no real news to report, so they conduct some polls and attempt to make the news. The polls are all over the map depending on who is being polled, what questions are asked ("Would you rather vote of Jeb Bush or have a sharp stick jammed in your eye?"), and who is counting the results. Expect more of the same kind of reporting until the primaries begin.

Personally, I'd like to see a Republican National Primary conducted across the US on the same day. This would undo the undue influence of states like Iowa and New Hampshire and get the primaries over with quickly so the party could unify behind the nominee.

Left Bank of the Charles said...

What makes you think they aren't all ringers?

Hagar said...

Completely off topic, but I wanted to post this re. previous postings on climate.

Protecting humanity from ice ages

I do not know about the professor's conclusions, but agree on the periodicity of climate variations, whatever the causes might be.

Also that warming we can deal with and adjust to; severe cooling now, that could be another matter.

MadisonMan said...

It wouldn't much matter if debate and donation decisions weren't being made based on these polls

I don't donate money to politicians, so I'll ask: Do people base their donations based on polling? Or on the message being spouted by the Candidate? (Or to try to buy favors?)

Donating to a rich person like Trump seems very foolish to me. Why's he need my money for a Vanity Race?

Brando said...

"Personally, I'd like to see a Republican National Primary conducted across the US on the same day. This would undo the undue influence of states like Iowa and New Hampshire and get the primaries over with quickly so the party could unify behind the nominee."

While that has its advantages (more closely mirroring the general election and seeing who can compete nationally, not allowing some states to arbitrarily have undue influence on the process, and of course getting it over with sooner) I'm sure a lot of people could point out advantages to the way it's done now. The drawn out process gives candidaets a chance to catch up, and enables more competition, and gives the voters a chance to see how candidates stack up when focused on certain regions at a time.

I don't think there's any fool proof way to determine the best nominee from the party's perspective. Even the days of party bosses picking nominees at conventions had its downside--often influence trading mattered more than finding someone who could unite the party's factions and win the general, then lead in a way that pleased the party.

rehajm said...

Hey - Jeb! trumps Hillary! !

William said...

If Bush were that clever, then that would be a good reason to vote for him.

rhhardin said...

¡Rubio!

garage mahal said...

Why's he need my money for a Vanity Race?


Trumps campaign message is basically the middle finger. I think that's what the GOP wants to see/hear. Good enough for second place.

phantommut said...

That exclamation point worked so well for Hillary! in 2008.

phantommut said...

If it's Jeb! or Hillary! we are so totally hosed.

Insufficiently Sensitive said...

Just ask your local Slavic immigrant about that Jeb! exclamation. Greater minds than mine double over laughing - it's the F-word, and the Bush campaign should really get off their butts and hire some folks with more language skills than Spanish.

MadisonMan said...

If it's Jeb! or Hillary! we are so totally hosed.

I would vote Jeb! over Hillary!!.

garage mahal said...

I would vote Jeb! over Hillary!!.

George! worked out well.

Mick said...

Rubio is not eligible. He was naturalized at birth by 8 US Code S. 1401(1), since he was born subject to the jurisdiction of the US because of his US legal resident alien parents.
Here is what 7FAM (State Dept. directives)1131.6-2(d)"Eligibility for the Presidency" says about those "citizens at birth":

"In any event, the fact that someone is a natural
born citizen pursuant to a statute does not necessarily imply that he or she is
such a citizen for Constitutional purposes"



Rubio, Cruz, and Jindal are not eligible (they are naturalized by 8 US Code s. 1401), and at the very least it needs to be judicially determined if they are or not. That a "law prof" ignores this means she (and others) is incompetent.

Bay Area Guy said...

Don't forget Bernie!

The more the field is fragmented, the more it helps Jeb!

The more I think about it, the more I think we're gonna have to learn love Jeb!

MadisonMan said...

George! worked out well.

Relevance to the present discussion? None. Typical.

My pro-Jeb vote would in reality be a tough-to-swallow vote that was really a vote for keeping the Clintons out of the White House, because in my view, Clintons (Bill & Hillary) are far too entangled with the money of foreign governments and Hillary has a long resume of not very much success; why promote her when she has not shown much in the way of leadership ability?

EMD said...

George! worked out well.

I thought this was a Seinfeld reference.

traditionalguy said...

Trump is the new WWF soundbite Champion. That man can communicate without fear or any real plan. CNN poll for a planned CNN story about Walker failing something, anything. What else do you expect.

Walker has been out frozen of the media for a month now to push JEB. Just wait until Walker announces and gets a microphone in his hand again.

The Hillary camp HAS to have JEB nominated. She cannot beat anyone else except another re-run Bush.

Original Mike said...

Why in the world did Jeb! think ! was a good idea?

damikesc said...

Traction is a bit useless about 7 months out. Trump will burn out and Bush is just unelectable.

Trump is a clown and Republicans who support him deserve what they get.

His plus is that he's a fighter. Too many Republicans are bending over backwards to please the media, etc. We need more candidates to tell the media to go fuck themselves.

JackOfClubs said...

I think the Jeb! logo is wearing shorts, no?

Brando said...

"His plus is that he's a fighter. Too many Republicans are bending over backwards to please the media, etc. We need more candidates to tell the media to go fuck themselves."

There are a lot of GOP candidates who lash out at the media without the baggage of being Donald Trump.

They key isn't so much openly bashing the media, so much as ju jitsuing them to use them to your advantage. As an example, look at how Reagan's '84 campaign used patriotic backdrops for their daily clips so when the media tried to report on unemployment, the visual the viewers got was a positive one and it overwhelmed the message.

Michael K said...

"Do people base their donations based on polling?"

The only national politician I have ever donated to was Romney because I thought he was our last chance to reverse the slide to anarchy and bankruptcy. I still think so.

bbkingfish said...

Walker had a great February. He has been sinking steadily since then.

gadfly said...

Gosh, we have come to the point where polls control everything - just like ag data from the USDA sets future prices in the commidities - and the ag data is made up by the farmers who send it in.

Saint Croix said...

Good article at 538