But in Thompson’s case, his popularity and crossover appeal didn’t survive the polarizing brawl of the 2012 election, which he lost to Baldwin.
“Thompson started at plus 18,” says [Marquette pollster Charles] Franklin, referring to the difference between his positive and negative rating. “But he finished at minus 14. It’s a powerful example of how a campaign can change a politician’s image with the voters in the state.”
May 24, 2015
"The one other Wisconsin politician with numbers like Feingold’s in recent years was former GOP Gov. Tommy Thompson at the outset of his own 2012 Senate race."
"Like Feingold, Thompson had been out of partisan politics for several years, making him a less polarizing figure. Like Feingold, he scored well with independents and did unusually well with voters in the opposing party."
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Always dangerous to look at a GOP candidate as precedent for a Democrat or vice versa.
There are significant structural differences in play.
Thompson had a pretty impressive electoral record in off-year elections.
Then, the one time he ran in a presidential year, he got skunked by Tammy Baldwin, 51-46.
Johnson's best chance against Feingold will be if his team succeeds in getting the FEC to postpone the election to 2018.
If not, most likely he's toast.
The schedule for selecting Senators is set up so that every Senate seat alternates between a presidential year and a non-presidential year. That tends to even things out, giving the different groups power alternately.
The 2 groups are different... not obvious which group is more well-suited to make the decision, but they balance each other.
In the elections that are not presidential, there's more attention to the Senate candidate as an individual (rather than as someone riding along with the presidential candidate of his party).
Thompson was a terrible candidate when he ran in 2012. There was a young, attractive candidate that came in second in the primaries, but Thompson's name recognition edged him out. Then, in the general election, he just coasted on a "You know me, I'm Tommy" message. It was gruesome.
"The schedule for selecting Senators is set up so that every Senate seat alternates between a presidential year and a non-presidential year."
Yes. It is set up that way because U.S. Senators are elected to a six-year term.
Most pertinent to 2016, one million more will vote than did in Wisconsin in 2010, and they will be disproportionately democratic-leaning as a group, on average.
That, combined with an approval rating hanging in the 30s for a couple of years now, makes for a powerful mojo working against a Johnson incumbency.
"Yes. It is set up that way because U.S. Senators are elected to a six-year term."
No, it's the other way around. It's a 6 year term because it's set up to achieve that effect. Actually, it's a 6 year term so that a majority of the Senators remain in place, not facing election, in each election year. That maximizes stability in the continuing institution.
"Most pertinent to 2016, one million more will vote than did in Wisconsin in 2010, and they will be disproportionately democratic-leaning as a group, on average."
And you know this how ?
Walker may well be on the ballot. That might bring out the anti-Walker vote but the pro-Walker vote has won several elections.
Tommy ran out if money after the primary so was not able to do any advertising for quite awhile after he won. That set him up as always trying to catch up. And besides, he was not the kind of person we needed to run against Tammy Baldwin. Eric Hovde would have been a much better candidate.
Agree wrt Hovde. Smart, good looking, fresh. What a waste.
Feingold would be running against a known incumbent. Thompson ran against Baldwin, who did not have the same name recognition as Thompson at the outset.
Johnson is a known incumbent? Most people are unaware Johnson exists.
Did he author a single bill? Take charge on a local issue? Not in my memory.
Mark, are you suggesting that Eddie Murphy could pretend to be Ron Johnson and get elected?
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