February 18, 2015

"Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton runs best overall against leading Republican White House contenders in three critical swing states, Colorado, Iowa and Virginia..."

"... but U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky is in a virtual tie with her in Colorado and Virginia, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush ties her in Virginia, the largest of the three, and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is in a virtual tie in Colorado."

According to a new Quinnipiac poll.

ADDED: In the details — PDF — you can see the significance of the question "Is your opinion of [candidate name] favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?" Few people say they haven't heard enough about Hillary, but "haven't heard enough" answers for the Republicans are, in each case, in each of the 3 states, above 20%. The "haven't heard enough" answers are (by far) highest in the case of Scott Walker: 54% in Colorado, 55% in Iowa, and 57% in Virginia. That means that the vigorous shaping of opinion that is happening right now is going to be especially important for Walker, and monitoring mainstream media manipulations — e.g., Gail Collins's notorious "eraser" column — is crucial.

AND: The poll asked 2 good questions about Hillary: "Does [the fact that her husband served as President] make you more likely to support Hillary Clinton for president, less likely, or does it make no difference?" and "Does [Hillary Clinton would be the first female president] make you more likely to support Hillary Clinton for president, less likely, or does it make no difference?" The "no difference" answers had an overwhelming majority for both questions, in all 3 states. On the first question, "less likely" beat out "more likely" in all 3 states — 15/24 (CO), 15/18 (IA), 16/21 (VA). On the second question "more likely" exceeded "less likely," in all 3 states, but not by much — 15/11 (CO), 12/10 (IA), 14/9 (VA). Of course, the questions weren't set up to weigh the importance of the factor. I could see finding "first woman President" of some weight, but not much.

26 comments:

Big Mike said...

The only polls that count will start with the Iowa caucuses next January. How various announced Republican candidates poll today against Hillary, who may not even run in 2016, is not one of the criteria for choosing a standard-bearer. Their stands on immigration, especially border security; defense; and bringing "too big to fail" banks to heel will be much more salient.

MadisonMan said...

The return of Hillary!!

surfed said...

I've already decided to back your Gov. Walker. A lot of us here in North Florida like the cut of his jib. The man does know how to sail up wind.

James Pawlak said...

The only polls that matter are those utilized on election days.

Please recall: The "Dewey Beats Truman" headline; And, the number of citizens now no longer using those telephone land-lines as used by pollsters.

Michael K said...

If Hillary is "virtually tied" with candidates where 54% say they don't know enough about them, what does this say about her.?

dbp said...

We've seen the ill results of having a president with no resume. HRC has a resume, though it is one of incompetence punctuated with mediocrity. How is this a good idea? What is wrong with people?

tim maguire said...

I could see finding "first woman President" of some weight, but not much.

Right, because "first black president" worked out so well.

Kzookitty said...

I've said it before: kinda glad I'll probably be dead before the next election rolls round.

kzookitty

wv: uilky
Mongrel at least half Yorkshire Terror.
Meade took the neighbor's uilky for a walky.

Yorkshire Terror
1) Small rat terrier originating in N. England
2) Notorious N England serial killer

navillus said...

I'm waiting for the poll question that asks- "Does [the fact that her husband is a pathological sex addict & rapist] make you more likely to support Hillary Clinton for president, less likely, or does it make no difference?" It should be a deal-breaker, but won't be. Can I buy a bumper sticker that says "Ready for Horndog!"?

B said...

I wonder if polls like this will accelerate the attacks on Walker. Have to kill his candidacy in the crib before too many people develop a positive impression of him.

Ignorance is Bliss said...

The only polls that matter are the ones Nate Silver does.

BDNYC said...

Walker left college before graduating, and yes Hillary went to the best law school, but Hillary failed the DC bar exam. That's not a big deal, but her educational pedigree isn't perfect.

I think educational pedigree is vastly overrated. We are usually choosing among candidates who have been out of college for decades.

Real world accomplishments. That's what matters. Hillary seems like she's accomplished many things, but in reality she's had a string of unearned opportunities. With each opportunity, she's performed poorly.

wendybar said...

Voting another KNOWN liar into office is going to make America worse than it is now. WHY would anybody even consider Hillary?

sane_voter said...

The only polls that matter are the ones Nate Silver does.

Nate doesn't do polling. He just analyzes existing polls to create a probability a candidate will win the race.

sane_voter said...

calculate, not create

Michael K said...

"Have to kill his candidacy in the crib before too many people develop a positive impression of him."

I hope the GOP does a better job than they did with Romney. The late convention hurt him badly in that he was unable to respond to the nasty attacks all summer in 2012.

Mark said...

But what do the unskewed polls say?

I heard all about them here in the run up to President Romney's win.

LYNNDH said...

I would like to know just in what parts of CO were those questions asked? If it was Denver/Boulder would get you way different answers than Limon and Lamar.

Larry J said...

The news media doesn't use political polls to determine what is going on. They use polls to try and impact what is going on. The idea that Republicans should depend on liberal pollsters to influence their candidate selection is absurd. Nor, for that matter, should any of the Republican debates be moderated by liberal news media (redundant) types. If the Democrats aren't willing to let Rush Limbaugh or Shaun Hannidy moderate their debates, why should Republicans let the likes of George Stephonopolis moderate theirs?

Smilin' Jack said...

The poll asked 2 good questions about Hillary: "Does [the fact that her husband served as President] make you more likely to support Hillary Clinton for president, less likely, or does it make no difference?"

I'm pretty sure that if her husband hadn't served as President no one would be supporting Hillary, or even have heard of her.

EMD said...

I heard all about them here in the run up to President Romney's win.

Shit. Mark might have found the cross-dimensional portal where the economy is booming, employment participation is up to around 74%, the border has been secured, but we've created a special but efficient process that allows longtime illegals to transition to full citizenship, the Keystone Pipeline is on schedule, where Obamacare has been largely repealed, but health insurance has become portable and diversified into tiers of affordability and degrees of coverage for young and old and where the state is out of the marriage business altogether*

The only downside is everyone now has to wear long underwear, but since it's winter across most of the UnskewedSA, it's not that bad.

I should probably shut up now.

*-just kidding. We didn't elect President Paul here.

traditionalguy said...

Walker's problem is his focused determination to win.

Walker will refuse to lose the nomination to the establishment's anointed Prince of the Bush Family claiming it is entitled to the Presidency.

Walker will refuse to lose to the old burned out Mrs. Clinton claiming being a woman makes her entitled the Presidency.

Walker will refuse to lose to Jihadists who claim they are entitled to rule the earth by mass genocide of Jews and christians.

Walker is sneaky like that.

Levi Starks said...

Still finding it amusing that's you think it even matters who the next president is.

Meade said...

Oh very young, who will you vote for this time?
You’ll cast your very first vote in a short while
And though your dreams may toss and turn you now
They will vanish away like your mom's best pantsuit
Blue-on-blue, faded up to the sky
You don't want that to last forever
You hope it never will
(you hope it never will)
And the matches make the jacket harder still.
Oh very young, who will you vote for this time?
There'll never be a better chance to change your mind
And if you want this world to see a better day
Will you carry the words of Scott with you?
Will you ride the great Scott Train into heaven?
And though you'll want it to last forever
You know it never will
(term limits make that real)
And the pantsuit makes your journey harder still.
Will you carry the words of Scott with you?
Will you ride, oh, oooh
Oh very young, who will you vote for this time?
You’ll cast your very first vote in a short while
Oh very young, who will you vote for this time?

-by Yusuf Ismeade

hombre said...

Of course those things in the questions make no difference in the decision to support Hillary. It's all about her wide array of achievements which her supporters, particularly the women, will be happy to take a second and a half to tell you about.

Same with Obama. Competence? Fuck competence!

mikee said...

I'd love to see a poll question referencing her repeated proclivity to falsely defame others as a means of defense when caught in her own misbehavior, lie outrageously for self-aggrandizement, get fired for ethics violations, accept money from false investments, obstruct justice to avoid prosecution, and prosecute false charges to remove people in her way.

"Other than all that, do you think she is fit for high office and positions of trust and responsibility?"