I was too lazy to blog my prediction, but — believe me! — I knew the Supreme Court was going to deny cert. in the same-sex marriage cases.

"This morning the Court... denied review of all seven of the petitions arising from challenges to state bans on same-sex marriage. This means that the lower-court decisions striking down bans in Indiana, Wisconsin, Utah, Oklahoma, and Virginia should go into effect shortly...."

My prediction was based on 2 data points:

1. In mid-September, at a forum at the University of Minnesota Law School, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg was asked when the Supreme Court will decide the same-sex marriage question, and she "noted that all three appellate courts to address the issue so far... have struck down state laws limiting marriage to opposite-sex couples... [G]iven that there is no disagreement so far, she concluded, there is 'no urgency' for the Court to take it right now."

2. Last Wednesday, at a forum for high school students in Colorado, Justice Scalia was asked the same question, and he said: "I know when, but I’m not going to tell you." After a laugh from the audience, he added: "Soon! Soon!"

I had the feeling that Scalia's "I know when" referred not a specific date, but to the specific condition, and that condition was the one Ginsburg had cited: When there is a split in the circuits. The Court has reason to believe that condition will never occur, and it can preserve its political capital by never weighing in on the subject.

I have thought ever since Windsor that any careful analysis of the Supreme Court precedent would lead any federal circuit to strike down the same-sex marriage bans. The uniformity we tend to think of as coming from the Supreme Court can come from unanimity among the circuits (after the nudge in Windsor).

Some people might want to get the answer nailed down for the whole country as soon as possible, but I'm guessing that the view on the Supreme Court is that things are already happening quickly and giving people a little more time to adjust — to evolve, as many like to say — is really more effective than a top-down dictate from the Court — which would give marriage equality opponents much more to cry out about.

And really, rejecting these cases is almost a clearer announcement that issue is over. Unless some circuit court decides to resist the compulsion of Windsor, at some point we will all look back and see that it was really already decided last year.

When will the Supreme Court decide the same-sex marriage question? The answer is probably: Never. Or: It already did.

ADDED: Look, Rand Paul is evolving.