First paragraph:
Here at FiveThirtyEight, we spend a lot of time thinking about how to predict stuff. The science of prediction is pretty hard to get right consistently. But in keeping with the philosophy of exploring other schools of predictive thought, I decided to go to one of the classic sources of predictions — a tarot card reader — to find out what she had to say about the future, and how those predictions would stack up against rigorous statistical analysis.There are 37 more paragraphs. And 3 graphs. If you can't guess without looking, the analysis is the most obvious insight into psychics: They predict specific-seeming general things that are already quite probable. The "rigorous statistical analysis" promised in the first paragraph — presumably to palm this off as a decent FiveThirtyEight article — is the probability of the predictions the tarot card reader made to that one guy. For example, she said he'd meet a woman with "brown or red hair," and FiveThirtyEight's "rigorous statistical analysis" applies to the real-world likelihood that women are anything other than blonde.
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20 comments:
From the article: "If we use a liberal definition of “brown or red hair” to include “anything that is not blonde hair,” "
-- Was the psychic talking about genetic hair color or dyed hair color?
Because, then it also rules out the universe of women with pink, green, teal or other color hair, bald or women who have hair that has gone gray entirely!
Way to think inside the box 538.
Mr. Mysterio the Women's Breast Reader says
By running my hands across your naked breasts I can see into your future. Miss, your letting a total stranger in a purple cape rub your naked breasts tells me you are trusting and open to new experiences. You are accepting of the advice of others, and feel there are powers in the universe that help shape our lives. For a better prediction of your immediate future I need to rub your buttocks. I am Mr, Mysterio!
I predict that when I lay my jacket on a chair and command it, "Stay!", it will.
Mr. Mysterio the Women's Breast Reader says
Your naked breasts tell me you will meet a stranger -- yes, I see it clearly -- you will meet a stranger who looks a lot like me, in fact -- the resemblance is uncanny, really -- he will be sitting at a table at the Starbucks on the corner in one hour. You will know the accuracy of my prediction when his first words to you are "Haven't I seen you somewhere before?" I sense this stranger has great wisdom, and the Universe's plan for you runs directly through him: be open to the Universe. I am Mr, Mysterio!
Mr. Mysterio the Women's Breast Reader says
Your naked breasts tell me you like to spend a lot of time in the sun -- yes Yes! Your tan line confirms it! You are often cold in Winter, and you are somewhat disappointed with your breast enhancement surgery. You're not? Really? You don't see that they are uneven? Miss, you need to stop lying to yourself: the Universe knows your Truth. I am Mr, Mysterio!
Mr. Mysterio the Women's Breast Reader says
Your naked breasts tell me you are cold right now: I shall adjust the air conditioner. I am Mr, Mysterio!
Mr. Mysterio the Women's Breast Reader says
Your naked breasts tell me you that you have always thought that you could be a model. Really? That is your dream? Well, do you know that I am also a professional photographer? In fact, I have a studio in the room right behind the beaded curtain! Yes, really! It is the Universe talking to you: I suggest you listen. I am Mr, Mysterio!
Mr. Mysterio the Women's Breast Reader says
Your reluctance to remove your bra for your Naked Breast Reading tells me you suffer from inhibitions that have hindered your success in Life. Reading your breasts through your bra renders the Future uncertain: may I suggest that today would be a great day to begin a new life open to the Universe? Really? You still won't remove your bra? I'm afraid your Future appears cloudy... I am Mr, Mysterio!
Mr. Mysterio the Women's Breast Reader says
Sir, your naked man-breasts tell me you hide your pain through excessive eating. Um. Well. May I suggest you buy a lot of Lotto tickets? Sure, why not? Your lucky number is twelve, thanks for stopping by. I am Mr, Mysterio!
Sounds like 538 is stealing James Randi's shtick.
I predicted that I would not click through to read the article, and I was right.
Maybe she's no longer a virgin. That ruins tarot reading talent.
James Bond had a flick on it.
Live and Let Die. Google remembers everything.
In the 70s I had a boss in a physics-oriented job who was into telekinesis.
I kept a supply of bent cafeteria spoons in my office.
He once went to a tarot card reader...to warn her.
He is the most interesting man in the world.
- Krumhorn
Tarot isn't any less rational than "liberal" econcomics.
Or my spelling of "economics."
Maybe a wise person should open a fortune telling place so that he can give people who make bad decisions, like people who choose to go to fortune tellers, good advice.
"Tell me about my boyfriend. He slept with my neighbor last month, but it was only a mistake that he made because he was feeling so down about being an alcoholic. Will he marry me?"
"Ah! See this card with [some dorky thing] on it? This indicates that a counterfeit spirit has been leading you to this man. This spirit means to do you great harm. And see this card with [some other dorky thing] on it? This indicates that a spirit of pure white light awaits you in your future to lead you to your true soulmate."
"I'm thinking about getting a tattoo on my face. What tattoo do the cards think is best?"
"Ah! See this card with [a dorky thing] on it? This card shows that there are white orbs all around you now. These are your guardian angels. They are crying out that this small decision about your tattoo will lead by a chain of small events of cause and effect to a death by impalement! They say this may only be avoided by avoiding tattoos on the face, neck, and hands. Most auspicious, they say, would be to have the tattoo on the back, hip, upper thigh, or not at all."
Free tarot reading www.99numerologyreport.com/free-tarot-reading.html
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