It’s clear that Cochran’s vote increases were correlated to the percentage of African-Americans who live in each county. The 10 counties where the incumbent senator improved most were those where blacks make up 69 percent or more of the population.
June 25, 2014
"It Looks Like African-Americans Really Did Help Thad Cochran Win."
Harry Enten at FiveThirtyEight works the numbers.
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77 comments:
Once again, it is a one party election. What difference does it make if Thad Cochran wins, or the Democrat, when nothing will change. The politicians will get richer, while we pay for their lifestyles.
Duh!
I wonder what would happen if African Americans put their votes into play more often. For example they could start demanding that all these programs the government has created to help the underprivileged actually work.
That's great news, now they'll be qualified to be unbiased special prosecutors in the event a republican governor needs investigating
I think those that didn't vote in the Democrat primary were a help.
Cochran's win is not any kind of triumph given the margin by which he prevailed. If he has an ounce of sense, which he may not, he will very much adapt his approach in Washington to the views of his opposition in the primary.
It's a certain bet that few of any of those African-Americans will vote for Cochran in November. I wouldn't be at all surprised if more than a few conservatives won't vote for him, either. If I'm right, Cochran could well lose in the general election. Way to piss off your base, Mississippi Establishment GOP.
What will they do if it turns out that the difference in the election was exceeded by the number of people who illegally voted in both the Dem primary and this election?
You have to give libruls credit where credit is due. They are exceptional at gaming elections and I mean that in a purely legal sense not necessarily in terms of fair play.
Open primaries are dumb in my opinion. Should an atheist have a say in how a religion operates? Or a public school parent have a voice in how a private school operates? Open primaries enable non-stakeholders to influence groups in which they are not a member. That is ridiculous.
Mississippi folks are not dumb. They play the system to win Federal money. Not to balance a budget.
Plus the Cochran GOP guys paid out the cash to the black preachers to pay the black voters to go and vote in the GOP primary. And by a pure miracle they all found their voter ID's just in time.
"It Looks Like African-Americans Really Did Help Thad Cochran Win.""
Then I say, let's take MLK's excellent advice and judge all of them by the revealed content of their characters - in this case, as cheaters and vote invalidaters.
To that I say good--those voters got to have some influence on who their next Senator would be. I'd feel the same if Republican voters were given a chance to vote in an open Democratic primary in a deep blue state, and ended up nominating the more moderate Democrat.
Part of the reason black voters are such a lock for the Democrats is that many GOP officeholders get elected with no help from blacks (and usually against their opposition). Naturally, an officeholder is going to be more beholden to those who supported them, and this becomes a cycle. To the extent that black voters can be seen as "gettable" by the GOP, this will change, just as surely as other constituencies have shifted between the parties over time.
Not that Thad Cochran at this late stage in his career is going to suddenly become a lot more beloved by his black constituents--these voters in this case likely just were scared of the idea of Senator McDaniel. But the GOP would be wise to take such voters seriously.
As with Democrat voter fraud, it just means that your side needs a somewhat larger than 50% threshhold to win.
At 50% the voters are indifferent, so it's not a huge problem if it's 52% to win instead.
And how many of those voters will vote for him in the general election?
BOOM!
Kicking the racists in the NUTS!
Get down, get down,...
Cochran had a 0% rating with the NAACP as of 2011.
And Crack wants us to give these people reparations?
Maybe if they'd vote right, but the last thing I want to do is give people voting for the status quo more power to influence things.
How about no?
Why did they do this?
Free shit.
Why will they vote Democratic in November?
Free shit.
he will very much adapt his approach in Washington to the views of his opposition
He just beat his opposition, and if he wins the general he won't have to face the voters again until 2020, at which point he'll be 82. This was a huge win for business as usual.
Crack:
That is an absurd statement. Absolutely stupid.
Neither candidate is a racist.
SomeoneHasToSayIt,
"Let's take MLK's excellent advice and judge all of them by the revealed content of their characters."
Ahh, but the great man also said to abandon any Republican who supports the atmosphere of racism the party is fostering, so I'd say - in a quote-off - I'd have you licked.
Whites have GOT to learn more than one MLK line because that one has outrun it's usefulness to their cause,...
BOOM!
Kicking the racists in the NUTS!
Get down, get down,...
McDaniel wants the govt to live within its means. The opposition wants more free shit. Other People's Money.Which one is racist?
BTW - is anybody scared yet? I told y'all, you can't win, and you can't.
How many elections is it gonna take before I see your lips quivering?
I'm only asking because I sense somebody's already got a case of the shakes,...
I sincerely hope that the people that voted in the election that were Democrats vote for Cochran during the general. If they don't, they truly are a disgrace in terms of character. I am sickened by the comments of people who support this gaming of the system - when you are cheering on people cheating, you are cheering on the demise of our country, regardless of your political motivation.
Hey Crack,
How many people do you suppose died from exposure unnecessarily in Mississippi last night?
I prefer Booker T anyway.
Crack wrote;
"abandon any Republican who supports the atmosphere of racism the party is fostering"
Only if you're dumb enough to think that adopting his previous line, which leads to colorblindness, is supporting an atmosphere or racism.
It's ok that you disagree with MLK on judging someone by the content of their character rather than the color of their skin, Crack. Really, it is.
Lot's of people do. We call them Democrats.
Why did they do this?
Free shit.
Did whites who voted for Cochran vote for free shit too?
It's Mississippi.
Drive sometime across Mississippi. Start in the Southeast corner of the state, north of Mobile, Alabama and drive the 2-lane highways to the Northwest, to Vicksburg. See the state.
Unbelievable. Simply unbelievable.
No wonder the entire blues establishment left to move north to Memphis, St Louis and Chicago.
@The Crack Emcee - "...one MLK line because that one has outrun it's usefulness".
1. When the quality of your morality depends on the shelf-life and quantity of usage of your values, you pretty much are not much more than a dick-licking dog in the middle of the road.
2. Black people telling white people how to be? If we did this to you folk, your hair would catch fire.
"To that I say good--those voters got to have some influence on who their next Senator would be. I'd feel the same if Republican voters were given a chance to vote in an open Democratic primary in a deep blue state, and ended up nominating the more moderate Democrat."
My sentiments, too.
"Did whites who voted for Cochran vote for free shit too?"
Yes. It's the fundamental difference between Tea Party vs Establishment.
When the Republicans call asking for money, I am going to tell them to go pound sand. You want Dems to vote for you, go to them for money.
Ignorant people are easily led. Nothing new here.
garage: "Did whites who voted for Cochran vote for free shit too?"
If they are dems choosing to vote in the republican primary, then yes.
If they are republicans voting in the republican primary, then no.
I'm not surprised this eludes you.
Have you figured out yet that Negative(-) 2.9% GDP in the last quarter is not indicative of a "growing economy"?
Probably not.
Vote for the Republican that keeps Federal dollars pouring into Alabama. At least we know what Democrat voters really care about: getting paid.
Crack:
Scared of what? The Republican won. You do understand that don't you? It was Republican against Republican; a right winger against a farther right winger.
It was a can't lose night.
If they are dems choosing to vote in the republican primary, then yes.
If they are republicans voting in the republican primary, then no.
LOL
B: "Vote for the Republican that keeps Federal dollars pouring into Alabama. At least we know what Democrat voters really care about: getting paid."
Alabama, Mississippi. Tomato, tomah-to.
Michael: "Crack: Scared of what?"
Michael, shhhhhhhhhh.
Crack is simply a little confused again.
Hence the incoherence.
Nothing to see. Move along, quick. Before he begins babbling about clapping techniques and cinder blocks.
Æthelflæd,
"Cochran had a 0% rating with the NAACP as of 2011."
But it's 4 years later and he's the Bee's Knees now!
eric,
"And Crack wants us to give these people reparations?"
The beatings will stop once your attitude improves - and I don't like your attitude.
Curious George,
"Why did they do this?
Free shit."
That's what a free people want, man!
Michael,
"Neither candidate is a racist."
But one of them has a radio show and said racist shit on it - which means I get to stand by the door, smile, and say, "Buh-bye."
Tim,
"McDaniel wants the govt to live within its means. The opposition wants more free shit. Other People's Money. Which one is racist?"
But it's money whites only say is theirs, so it's all kind of being evened out, because whites prefer to be stubborn about the ethics they've never upheld - so, now that others have learned THAT's what it means to be "American," whites don't like it. Actually, nobody does, but whites must stop first. They started it. Then we can make "American" mean something else, like citizen, instead of adversary.
Whites are the racists, until then,...
"Have you figured out yet that Negative(-) 2.9% GDP in the last quarter is not indicative of a "growing economy"?"
Obamanomics.
Crack:
Fine, we get it. Whites are racists. Whites have all the money.
You want reparations.
See the above.
good luck.
The Crack Emcee said...
Whites have GOT to learn more than one MLK line because that one has outrun it's usefulness to their cause,...
Exactly the opposite, but I am not at all surprised you floated that distraction.
Though you won't admit it, I know that you know that the biggest thing Blacks have to fear is that people will judge them by the content of their characters.
As I do you.
Rumpletweezer,
"Hey Crack,
How many people do you suppose died from exposure unnecessarily in Mississippi last night?"
If it was one, it was too many.
eddie willers,
"I prefer Booker T anyway."
Washington or with The MGs?
eric,
Crack wrote;
"abandon any Republican who supports the atmosphere of racism the party is fostering"
"Only if you're dumb enough to think that adopting his previous line, which leads to colorblindness, is supporting an atmosphere or racism."
It sweetens the pot when whites think they understand race better than me. Or MLK. Or what colorblindness is.
Colorblindness IS racism and racism is the problem.
I know you're lying if you say you don't see I'm black. Why would you have to, not see I'm black, if being black's not a problem? Do you assume I join you in your mental charades and can't see you're white? How? Did we exchange ground rules before meeting that told us what we can and cannot see? If not, then you have to admit, you're engaged in this madness alone. I call it The African-American Maze.
Can't you see how blacks want out - that whites have used MLK to trap blacks in a "colorblind" racist delusion he had no intention of fostering?
That's what happens when whites try to direct cultural attitudes without input from the people they've been racist against. That's why, collectively, they've only read, and can only quote, one line of MLK - they can't stomach the rest because MLK went against everything they believe - including reparations.
Think I'm wrong? Then come back and reconcile your MLK with this collection of short clips I've assembled that refute everything you claim to know about him.
"It's ok that you disagree with MLK on judging someone by the content of their character rather than the color of their skin, Crack. Really, it is."
I don't disagree with it - but then, I don't have to take it out of context, or try to change it's meaning, to do so - the man was defending my position, not yours.
"Lot's of people do. We call them Democrats."
No, "we" don't - we call them racists - and they're in both parties, but the Right seems to think they can distract us, by pointing to the other guys, as conservatives distinguish themselves almost on a daily basis. Like bringing up Africa's slave trade in a discussion of American slavery, it won't work.
Because anyone who'd abuse a group of people for four centuries, specifically over the color of their skin - and now denies they can see it entirely - they're going through some obvious (and serious) mental gyrations and should be in the care of a psychiatric unit with a Anti-Cult Task Force attached, immediately.
Or we can line you up and shoot you.
I think you're going to get a vote on that last one,...
paul a'barge,
1. When the quality of your morality depends on the shelf-life and quantity of usage of your values, you pretty much are not much more than a dick-licking dog in the middle of the road.
I agree, but that's not the case here - whites are deliberately and perversely twisting MLK's meaning - so I can dispense with it, without fucking with him, at all.
2. Black people telling white people how to be? If we did this to you folk, your hair would catch fire.
Get used to it.
And, in the future, I wouldn't mention whites setting anybody on fire any more,...
Can we really trust this woman (or any democrat) with anything resembling a complicated piece of legislation or even a can opener?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/mike-debonis/wp/2014/06/25/eleanor-holmes-norton-kills-driverless-car/
Yes, Eleanor Holmes Norton killed an ALMOST idiot proof vehicle.
Hey, lets give her and bunch of folks like her even more power!
Sadder still? She's smarter than crack.
Michael,
"Crack:
Scared of what? The Republican won. You do understand that don't you? It was Republican against Republican; a right winger against a farther right winger.
It was a can't lose night."
Um, no - it was a Tea Party LOSE night - that much was made VERY clear.
And Thad Cochran won it like a REPUBLICAN.
Good man,...
Michael,
"Fine, we get it. Whites are racists. Whites have all the money."
You left out the whites-have-no-ethics-worth-respecting part.
THAT's the root of your problems,...
What I want to know is how all these poor black folk could vote at all because Mississippi has a photo ID requirement.
I mean these folks are black. And poor. And many rural. And young. Lefties have been saying how this keeps blacks from voting, but hell in Mississippi it doesn't even keep them from voting for a Republican.
I like Florida's closed primary system better. If you aren't willing to register as a member of a particular party, you have no business voting in the primary unless there is no opposing candidate at all from the other party in the general election.
Guess there's just too much at stake here for the Repub establishment not to get down and crawl on their bellies like snakes. Here's that flyer they were passing around: "The Tea Party intends to prevent blacks from voting on Tuesday".
Lol. Surprised they didn't photoshop a KKK pointy-hat and robe onto McDaniel's picture. Or horns and a pitchfork.
Mississippi law reportedly requires the intent to support a candidate in the general election as prerequisite to voting for him in a primary.
When Cochran solicited black Democrats, who historically never vote for Republicans in general elections in MIssissippi, to commit voter fraud by voting for him, one would have hoped that self-respecting Republicans and Democrats would condemn the action.
Evidently, there are not that many self-respecting Republicans and, of course, voter fraud is business as usual for Democrats.
It would be nice if we could join the elite lefties and gleefully chalk this up to "dumb crackers," but it seems more likely that this primary manifests the lack of integrity of the political class and the indifference thereto of the American public.
Of course, black Democrats may intend to vote for Cochran in the general and then vote several times for the Democrat. In that case this vote wouldn't have been fraudulent. LOL.
Have you figured out yet that Negative(-) 2.9% GDP in the last quarter is not indicative of a "growing economy"?
Maybe if it was tattooed on the end of his dick.
Crack,
"The beatings will stop once your attitude improves - and I don't like your attitude."
Help me, I'm a victim!
"But it's money whites only say is theirs, so it's all kind of being evened out, because whites prefer to be stubborn about the ethics they've never upheld - so, now that others have learned THAT's what it means to be "American," whites don't like it. Actually, nobody does, but whites must stop first."
Help help! I'm a victim because white people!
Poor Crack, he needs our pity.
The worst thing we could do for him is give him money. A job and some hard work, yes, but a handout? That would just destroy his already depleted soul.
Two white Republicans from Mississippi run against each other.
Blacks make the difference in the result.
What difference, at this point, does it make?
Michael,
"Neither candidate is a racist."
If McDaniel resembles anything, it’s a Southern reactionary whose appeal is built on resentment of assorted others, which in Mississippi, inevitably includes black Americans,...he mocked complaints of racism, railed against hip-hop as a “morally bankrupt” culture that “values prison more than college,” and promised to stop paying taxes if reparations were ever passed: “How you gonna make me pay for something that I had nothing to do with? How you gonna do that to me? I don’t get it.”
As a state senator, McDaniel has spoken to gatherings of the Sons of Confederate Veterans—a neo-Confederate group that promotes present-day secessionists—and delivered the keynote to a SCV event last fall. Indeed, his rhetoric decries the rise of a “new America” and pines for days of old. “There are millions of us who feel like strangers in this land, an older America passing away, a new America rising to take its place,” he said in a speech after the June 3 election. “We recoil from that culture. It’s foreign to us. It’s alien to us. ... It’s time to stand and fight. It’s time to defend our way of life again.”
His voters get the message, lashing out against those people who siphon dollars from hard-working Americans.
If y'all can't even spot racists, you're going to have one Hell of a time either fighting racism or getting the stench off of you,...
How is another day of poverty going for you, Crack?
Did your e-begging campaign go well?
It's sad, the taxpayers will probably have to pay to dispose of your remains when you die.
I hope they have paupers graves, or maybe they could just cremate you to generate electricity.
Crack won't be satisfied until he sees our lips quivering. I remember there was an Austrian corporal who thought that way...
Crack:
Don't have any problems. Supreme with all the money. No ethics worth having.
You. Crack. Are. Right. About. Everything.
How nice for you.
For what its worth I started making real money when I decided I didn't have to be right about everything. But then I am a white racist supremacist with more than my share of your money.
All the best
" For example they could start demanding that all these programs the government has created to help the underprivileged actually work."
That assumes facts not in evidence. Do they understand their own economic interests ? I don't think so; at least those who vote for Democrats.
"Did whites who voted for Cochran vote for free shit too?"
Of course. Next question.
Mississippi native here, so I believe I have a little more knowledge on the subject than some of you. Cochran has always had cross-over support. You can't win with his margins in Mississippi without many Dems voting for you. I do believe that the Dems that voted for him in the run-off yesterday have voted for him in the past and will vote for him in November. Cochran has always been know as trying to do what is best for all Mississippians, not just for people of a certain party. That paid off for him yesterday.
While Dems did vote for Cochran, a lot of Republicans that did not vote June 3rd also went to the polls. Many Republicans didn't vote June 3rd because they assumed Cochran would win like usual. When it went to a run-off, and they paid attention and got to know McDaniel, they showed up to vote yesterday. So you can't assume that the increase was due solely to Dems.
If McDaniel could have gotten Dems to vote for him to put him over the top, he would have done the same thing. Believe me, I have seen this guy in the Capitol during the past six Legislative Sessions. He is not a conservative savior; he is just another politician.
"Because anyone who'd abuse a group of people for four centuries..."
Crack I think your argument would be stronger if you were to write "Because any group" instead of "anyone."
It makes people think about a deity living for 400 years otherwise.
Speaking of 400, I've thought of a brilliant movie idea: The 401 Blows.
But that has a cocaine connotation so I am not sure whether to cash in on my genius or wait for something more morally in-line with my values to achieve brainstorment.
Crack wrote:
I know you're lying if you say you don't see I'm black. Why would you have to, not see I'm black, if being black's not a problem? Do you assume I join you in your mental charades and can't see you're white? How? Did we exchange ground rules before meeting that told us what we can and cannot see? If not, then you have to admit, you're engaged in this madness alone. I call it The African-American Maze.
Can't you see how blacks want out - that whites have used MLK to trap blacks in a "colorblind" racist delusion he had no intention of fostering?
color blindness is not literal blindness to skin color. Its assuming that color shouldn't matter in our interactions. You, and I should be judged by the content of our character, not the color of our skins.
If MLK didn't actually buy it, then shame on white folks for falling for the shtick.
And no crack, we're not judging you because you have black skin. Its purely because of the content of your character.
Crack wrote:
"Can't you see how blacks want out - that whites have used MLK to trap blacks in a "colorblind" racist delusion he had no intention of fostering?"
there's no one forcing you to stay Crack. bush Bye, and good riddance,
President-Mom-Jeans,
How is another day of poverty going for you, Crack?
I hope they have paupers graves, or maybe they could just cremate you to generate electricity."
Blogger Alex,
Crack won't be satisfied until he sees our lips quivering. I remember there was an Austrian corporal who thought that way…
My GOD, you two do me such honor.
And, here I was, thinking compulsively trimming my mustache was just some kind of a hipster affectation,..
Crack wrote:
"Can't you see how blacks want out - that whites have used MLK to trap blacks in a "colorblind" racist delusion he had no intention of fostering?"
there's no one forcing you to stay Crack. Bye Bye, and good riddance.
Michael,
"You. Crack. Are. Right. About. Everything."
Ah - finally - some agreement on something. See? The future's looking bright.
NotquiteunBuckley,
Crack I think your argument would be stronger if you were to write "Because any group" instead of "anyone."
It makes people think about a deity living for 400 years otherwise.
You're not keeping up with this conversation, at all, are you?
Cole (state democrat party chairman) specifically noted the extensively high turnout in Hinds County, a predominantly Democratic area of inner-city Jackson where a key Cochran ally had already been accused of engaging in suspicious activity on Cochran’s behalf. “I’ve never seen a Republican primary with that many voters in it in Hinds County,” Cole said.
There were 24,889 votes cast in Hinds County in the runoff—17,927 were for Cochran and 6,962 were for McDaniel—but only 20,567 Republican voters are listed in Hinds County, according to the well-known Labels and Lists Voter Data Base. The extraordinarily high turnout in Hinds County is much more than what happened in Hinds County in the primary just a few weeks ago, when 16,640 total votes were cast—10,928 for Cochran and 5,621 for McDaniel.
When asked if that seems a bit off, Cole responded: “Right.”
It's always harder to measure something not done than something done.
What I'm pondering is this: How many of the assumed base did not turn out for Brat given what he had to say about social security? Which happened to be true. God forbid 'n' all.
#thingsunsaid #thingspointedlynotnoticed
jr565,
"color blindness is not literal blindness to skin color. Its assuming that color shouldn't matter in our interactions."
Who said to "assume" that? Don't assumptions make an "ass" out of "u" and "me"?
What is wrong with white people?
SomeoneHasToSayIt,
"Though you won't admit it, I know that you know that the biggest thing Blacks have to fear is that people will judge them by the content of their characters."
With white's 350-year head start of mind-spinningly inventive evil? Sure, we blacks would be trembling in our boots by the comparison. (Actually, we'd be laughing, probably for the rest of our lives):
Considering the historical record, whites could gather to parade - under a picture of Saddam Hussien - and most blacks honestly wouldn't know the difference.
THAT's how bad your image is,...
"Considering the historical record, whites could gather to parade - under a picture of Saddam Hussien - and most blacks honestly wouldn't know the difference.
THAT's how bad your image is,..."
Actually, that's how bad your prejudice and/or ignorance is...
"Colorblindness IS racism and racism is the problem." You are an idiot.
Silver lining, blacks voted for a republican and IT DIDN'T HURT!!!
Original Mike
"Have you figured out yet that Negative(-) 2.9% GDP in the last quarter is not indicative of a "growing economy"?"
"Obamanomics."
Negative numbers are racist.
Hinds County is where the state capital is. There are also a lot of white democrats that did not vote June 3rd that voted legally in the run -off. Ricky Cole was also saying this stuff before the run-off in order to dissuade voters from voting for Cochran; the Dem party wanted McDaniel to win. With a few of McDaniel's supporter's past KKK affiliations and his own crazy statements on his radio show, they would have painted the GOP in MS as nothing but racists. Hard to do that to Cochran when he got cross-over support from both white and black Dems. You can't trust what Ricky Cole says.
The Crack Emcee said...
SomeoneHasToSayIt,
"Though you won't admit it, I know that you know that the biggest thing Blacks have to fear is that people will judge them by the content of their characters."
With white's 350-year head start of mind-spinningly inventive evil? Sure, we blacks would be trembling in our boots by the comparison. (Actually, we'd be laughing, probably for the rest of our lives):
Considering the historical record, whites could gather to parade - under a picture of Saddam Hussien - and most blacks honestly wouldn't know the difference.
THAT's how bad your image is,...
You apparently don't understand the concept of what is meant by the word 'individual'. (And that explains why you are a Liberal, I guess)
An 'individual' has a character that can be judged. There is no such thing as a 'collective' character, except that it is possible to create a sentence mentioning it with valid English grammar.
Also, only people who are currently living can be judged by the content of their character, so historical grievances are irrelevant.
MLK correctly wanted each living human being (this includes Blacks) to be judged by the content of his or her character.
This is what I mean when I say that, currently -- if we can believe social statistics like out-of-wedlock births, broken families, graduation rates, prison population demographics, etc -- this would not come out well for most Blacks.
One can fix this situation, only one-at-time, person by person, by individual inner commitment to being a better human being, rejecting things like group-think , herd mentality, and the group grievance industry.
Fix yourself. Think, yourself.
Whitey has nothing to do with the content of your personal inner character. He just notices it and responds accordingly.
The fact that you don't like the response, should be a valuable clue to you that inner changes are called for.
If you cared.
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