Althouse: "If they won't surrender by 5 a.m. tomorrow, there will be a military storm on all UA (Ukraine Armed) military forces all over Crimea."

March 3, 2014

"If they won't surrender by 5 a.m. tomorrow, there will be a military storm on all UA (Ukraine Armed) military forces all over Crimea."

Said Aleksandr Vitko, Russia's Black Sea fleet commander.

"This is a matter of defending our citizens and our compatriots, of defending the most important human right -- the right to life... We call for a responsible approach, to put aside geopolitical calculations, and above all to put the interests of the Ukrainian people first," said Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (at a U.N. human rights meeting in Geneva).

62 comments:

SayAahh said...: Ooops. Can't answer the phone right now. Gotta' attend a fund raiser with Beyonce.; 3/3/14, 10:48 AM
bleh said...: So when do we accept that Crimea is part of Russia? Will the Tatar and Ukrainian minorities leave voluntarily and peacefully?

How did Crimea end up in Ukrainian hands to begin with? Was it just a way of neutering Russia? If so, is Russia merely asserting itself and reclaiming land like Germany did in the 1930s?; 3/3/14, 10:51 AM
Hagar said...: Fairly strange behavior by all concerned.

Still think this will end - for the time being, anyway - with Crimea being allowed to rejoin Mother Russia, and the rest of Ukraine splitting into two new states.

Then, time will tell.; 3/3/14, 10:56 AM
RecChief said...: "defending the most important human right -- the right to life..."

So Putin is a right to lifer? that ought to spark some vicious action from Obama and his supporters; 3/3/14, 10:56 AM
B said...: BDNYC,

http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2014/mar/02/david-ignatius/historical-claim-shows-why-crimea-matters-russia/; 3/3/14, 10:57 AM
Hagar said...: Hitler claimed lands with German speaking people in them, but they never belonged to Germany. Germany itself did not exist until about 1850 and later.; 3/3/14, 10:59 AM
RecChief said...: Kruschev gave a "gift" of Crimea to Ukraine in 1954. It was a way for him to consolidate power in the Kremlin. At the time, Ukraine was part of the USSR so it wasn't a big deal.

"is Russia merely asserting itself and reclaiming land like Germany did in the 1930s?" I assume you mean the partitioning of Czechoslovakia because of the Sudeten Germans? The parallel is striking, no? Same language employed now. Too bad we have a Chamberlain in the Oval office.; 3/3/14, 11:00 AM
RecChief said...: Of course, there probably wouldn't have been a Russian majority in Crimea if Stalin hadn't killed or forcibly moved so many Tatars out of there.

People need to remember the forced famine in Ukraine to understand why Ukrainians want nothing to do with Russia.; 3/3/14, 11:02 AM
bleh said...: Thanks, B. I didn't know about the 1954 transfer. But that doesn't explain or address the effect of the Soviet Union's dissolution, which could have put Crimea's fate into dispute. Why didn't Russia take it back? It seems strange that they didn't at least try, but I suppose at the time Russia had too many fires to put out and Ukraine was able to take advantage. Maybe Russia was happy to just have a military base.; 3/3/14, 11:03 AM
Wince said...: "Kruschev gave a "gift" of Crimea to Ukraine in 1954."

So, the Russians are 'Elizabeth Warren givers'?; 3/3/14, 11:05 AM
tim maguire said...: Ukraine was able to take advantage.

By keeping their own land?

So when do we accept that Crimea is part of Russia?

Same way we accept most land transfers--when the army takes and keeps it. You;re not claiming Russia has some moral right to the Crimea, are you?; 3/3/14, 11:07 AM
Harold said...: I have a mental image of the President sitting at his desk staring into space forlornly clicking the reset button.; 3/3/14, 11:11 AM
bleh said...: tim maguire, no of course not; what Russia has done is outrageous and should be roundly condemned. But realistically, we aren't going to war over this. If Russia intends to annex Crimea, then I think recognition of this new reality is inevitable. Right?

What if Russian rule sparks a violent uprising? Do we side with the rebels? Do we fund them? Is Russia that much of an enemy of ours?

This is all so bizarre. It's like we've had a twenty-five year break from worrying about Russia.; 3/3/14, 11:13 AM
Patrick said...: I don't want to be too ha seed on the President, because I have no idea what I'd do. I don't like that Putin knows that he can do what he likes in the region without consequence. The President's previous recklessness with regard to the"red Line" in Syria showed Putin that the President is disinclined to do anything more than give a mild scolding. After the Model UN level antics of the "reset button," Putin probably knew that any way.

Having no credible move to make, the President must now rely on Putin's good will and self restraint.; 3/3/14, 11:14 AM
mccullough said...: Putin has more flexibility since Obama was re-elected.; 3/3/14, 11:15 AM
Bart Hall (Kansas, USA) said...: Tsar Vladimir IV had better be careful what he wishes for. Most Crimean Tatars are militant muslims. At present they can be kept out of Russia as foreigners. Add Crimea to Chechnya and Ingushetia and the militant muslim challenge in Russia increases by 50%.

The only reason any of this is happening is that Obama is so blatantly weak. Statesmanship at its worst, said Teddy Roosevelt, is "Combining the unbridled tongue with the unready hand.”

Enjoy the next three years, you idiots who voted for Obama in 2012, and you idiot Repubicans who voted McCain in '08 but stayed home in 2012. Obama received fewer votes in 2012 than McCain in '08. Y'all were warned repeatedly, but went ahead with your little purist hissy fit.; 3/3/14, 11:15 AM
Fen said...: Lebensraum

"We just need a bit of living space"; 3/3/14, 11:16 AM
Fen said...: I assume you mean the partitioning of Czechoslovakia because of the Sudeten Germans?

Godwin! shout the libtards.

Kruschev gave a "gift" of Crimea to Ukraine in 1954. It was a way for him to consolidate power in the Kremlin.

I thought it was more of casual mistake made when partitioning territory?; 3/3/14, 11:19 AM
Laslo Spatula said...: It's just a bit of community organizing in the Crimea; Obama should understand.; 3/3/14, 11:21 AM
Fen said...: So when do we accept that Crimea is part of Russia?

This is where the Lefty complaints about the Ukranian "coup" become hypocritical.

If Crimea wants to be part of Russia, they should begin seccession measures through the Ukranian government, peacefully.; 3/3/14, 11:21 AM
tim maguire said...: Thanks for the clarification BDNYC. Several of your statements sounded an awful lot like you think Ukraine stole the Crimea from Russia and they have a right to take it back.

Real Politik is cold, but accurate. There is no such thing as a right to rule except might makes right.; 3/3/14, 11:24 AM
Fen said...: Y'all were warned repeatedly, but went ahead with your little purist hissy fit.

You want us to vote for the GOP, you need to convince us you are more than just the lesser of two evils.

Pretend you are trying to court voters. Because you are.

Hint - calling us names does nothing but rouse me into "let it all burn" verse.; 3/3/14, 11:24 AM
Jon said...: The USA & NATO's concern for "territorial integrity" would have more credibility if NATO hadn't dropped bombs to take Kosovo away from Serbia, and if NATO didn't still have thousands of troops occupying Kosovo right now.; 3/3/14, 11:35 AM
David said...: Are they really going to occupy just the Crimea? To get to Crimea from Russia requires a lengthly journey south over the rest of central Ukraine. It won't take much of a pretext for the Russians to occupy the central and eastern parts of Ukraine in order to control the supply line.

Moving into western Ukraine would be even more bold. They are more likely to encounter a hostile population and forceful opposition there. A nation the size of Texas with about 46 million people is tough to hold by occupation. That's 20% more people than Poland.; 3/3/14, 11:39 AM
RecChief said...: "what Russia has done is outrageous and should be roundly condemned. But realistically, we aren't going to war over this. If Russia intends to annex Crimea, then I think recognition of this new reality is inevitable."

A couple of points:
1. "Roundly condemned" empty words probably won't matter to Putin. And I don't see us asking the EU to go along with economic sanctions. The EU still needs Russian natural gas. We should look at strengthening ties with Poland and the Baltic States. Just my opinion, but it seems to me that Putin is bent on reconstituting the USSR and satellites as much as possible, and not in a limited way as the Eurasian trading partnership has been presented. Perhaps a return to the Warsaw Pact is a more apt description of Putin's goal. political and economic integration with these countries.

2. You're right, we aren't going to war over this. Please excuse the bit of schadenfreude coming from some of us who have always thought that Obama was in over his head despite his (self proclaimed) good intentions. Also, forgive the schadenfreude regarding the "media" that mocked Romney for saying that Russia was our most important geo-political foe. Sorry, but he was right. Ok I said, moving on.

3. Why do we have to recognize it? To my knowledge, we don't recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as independent, nor Abkhazia, Transnistra, South Ossetia, or Solamiland.; 3/3/14, 11:42 AM
RecChief said...: Russia doesn't have a land route to Crimea, but it's a short hop from the Kuban to Crimea via the straits between the sea of Azov and the Black sea.; 3/3/14, 11:48 AM
Fen said...: But realistically, we aren't going to war over this

Because the only options are 1) do nothing or 2) global thermonuclear war.

Really tired of this false dilemma being trotted out.

How about we at least land american troops in Poland? Just so Putin doesn't get any ideas about them too?; 3/3/14, 11:50 AM
Bill, Republic of Texas said...: Russia has issued an ultimatum to Ukrainian forces in Crimea to clear out by 5 a.m. Tuesday or face a "military storm," according to Russian state-run news agency Interfax, which cited a Ukrainian Defense Ministry source.

This deserves the "I'm skeptical" tag. The only report on this is from the new Ukrainian government. They would really benefit if Russia started a shooting war for no good reason.

The world and UN would become much more involved. The eastern Russian speaking Ukrainians would be split very badly if this happened.

I still think Putin believes a unified Ukraine that is in the Russian sphere is the best outcome for him.

When he decided that is not possible, then he will create some flimsy excuse to take over the eastern part but that will be very messy and very expensive for him.; 3/3/14, 11:53 AM
B said...: From the NYT, a map of Ukraine. Blue is Russian speaking, orange is Ukrainian.

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2014/02/27/ukraine-crimea/0302_manual_upload/0227_UKRAINE_LANGUAGES-945.jpg

Do you think Russia will stop with Crimea?; 3/3/14, 11:57 AM
RecChief said...: Fen -
1. Hitler made the same arguments about sudeten germans that Russia is making now. See the "defending the most important human right- the right to life" quote. That's from the Russian commander in the Crimea. One would think that Ukrainians were killing ethnic Russians in Crimean streets, which wasn't and still isn;'t the case.

2. Crimea is an autonomous republic within Ukraine, so conceivably, Crimea could have peacably rejoined Russia in much the same way that Scotland is (slowly)breaking away, peacably, from England.

3. Kruschev (a Ukrainian)transferred Crimea to Ukraine as a goodwill gesture to consolidate his power in the Kremlin following Stalin's death and fight for ascendancy in the Party.; 3/3/14, 11:57 AM
Bart Hall (Kansas, USA) said...: Hey Fen, you have to understand that a movement and a party are two different things. The movement makes the progress it can make, when it can make it, within the party structure available at the time.

Our Housemember out here in KS-3 used to be a Democrat who held his seat by double-digits. In 2010 we were able to elect a Tea Party guy *as a Republican* by 20 points. In 2012 he took 68% of the vote against a Libertarian, and the Donks did not even attempt to defeat him.

One simple question: Who did you prefer? President Obama or President Romney. That was your only functional choice.

I stand by my "purist hissy-fit" comment.; 3/3/14, 11:58 AM
RecChief said...: They would really benefit if Russia started a shooting war for no good reason."

How so, the United States has shown that it won't intervene, the EU is not going to intervene, for reasons listed elsewhere. Who would actually come to Ukraine's aid? John Kerry leading the charge? hahahahhahahaha; 3/3/14, 12:01 PM
RecChief said...: B - NO Russia will not stop with Ukraine, next up is Belarus.; 3/3/14, 12:02 PM
Oso Negro said...: By golly, Obama really told off those Israelis!; 3/3/14, 12:09 PM
Bill, Republic of Texas said...: 2. Crimea is an autonomous republic within Ukraine, so conceivably, Crimea could have peacably rejoined Russia in much the same way that Scotland is (slowly)breaking away, peacably, from England.

That ship sailed with the protestors in Kiev. Why should the people in Crimea take the slow route when all they have to do is to occupy government buildings and call for a snap referandum? The Russian speaking people are a little butt hurt by the ousting of their guy. They know he is corrupt but they also know that Tymoshenko was every bit as corrupt as Yanukovich but they didn't start a revolution.

In the beginning the new government was aggressively Ukrainian and anti Russian ethnics.One of the first things things they did was to make Russian no longer an official language. Now they have backed off that and Inter TV is showing a Ukrainian flag with "United Ukraine" in both Russian and Ukrainian.

The new government must stop this rush to join Russia. Most cities in Dombass are flying Russian flags. One way would be to split the Russian speakers from Russia. If Russians start killing Ukrainian soldiers (who are probably from the east and Russian speakers)that will cause problems with the ethnic Russians.

The West is not going to war in Ukrsaine, but the West can cause huge economic disruption in Russia. I don't think Putin wants his economy to collapse or he may face a "Maiden" in Red Square.; 3/3/14, 12:20 PM
CWJ said...: Bart Hall @ 11:15 - FTW!!

I'll try to verify that Teddy R. quote because it fits Obama and this administration to a tee. Hope you don't mind if I steal it.; 3/3/14, 12:32 PM
RecChief said...: Bill - you missed my past tense. With 60% of the population ethnic Russian, they could have called for a "snap referendum" most any time.

I think it's too late for Ukraine to save the eastern part of Ukraine, never mind Crimea. Do you suppose all ethnic Russians in the Ukrainian Army are loyal to Ukraine? I don't know the answer, just asking.; 3/3/14, 12:53 PM
Alex said...: Tell me why Joe Shmoe in Peoria needs to care about this.; 3/3/14, 12:59 PM
Humperdink said...: In addition to the Chinese watching this administration's foreign policy handwork, Israel is also paying attention.

Think they can count on the Bamster? No, and they know it.; 3/3/14, 12:59 PM
RecChief said...: excellent read - http://thefederalist.com/2014/03/03/the-eighties-called-do-we-want-their-foreign-policy-back/

By the way, Obama's doubling of the national debt, and weakening the military now, leaves us vulnerable to people who don't care about "world opinion" and the "international community". Do you want to see the US get the short stick in trade negotiations? would you like to see prices for a whole host of products go up? All the stuff that we get that is made in China, would you like to see that shut off or made more expensive? How about raw materials? With China and Russia concluding trade agreements with countries that have large reserves of everything from oil to rare earth minerals, used in all the things we think are necessary to life, do we want to see what happens when we can't obtain those things? Crimea itself doesn't matter so much, but the fecklessness of American foreign policy, the naivete of the administration, the weakness on the world stage, leads to those things.; 3/3/14, 1:07 PM
Joe said...: Given the history of Crimea, I say it's best to stay away.; 3/3/14, 1:19 PM
Bob Loblaw said...: The takeaway from all of this is if you have nukes you should hold on to them. I've always wondered what the Ukrainians were thinking in 1994. Dumb.; 3/3/14, 1:37 PM
Bill, Republic of Texas said...: The ethnic divisions are not very clear in the east. Everyone there is so mixed up it is hard to say who is what ethnic group. It's not unusual to have Ukrainian, Russian, Polish and Moldovan blood. So identity is not that simple there.

I'm just saying I'm very skeptical of these ultimatums because the sourcing is from the Ukrainian government and it doesn't really make sense. Here's a quote from a drudge link:

Ukrainian Defense Ministry spokesman Maksim Prauta said four Russian navy ships were blocking Ukraine's anti-submarine warship Ternopil and the command ship Slavutych in Sevastopol's harbor.

He said the Russians ordered the crew to surrender within the hour or face Russians storming and seizing the ships and crew.

Interfax also quoted an unnamed source in the Ukrainian Defense Ministry earlier on Monday as saying a deadline to surrender at 0300 GMT had been set by the Black Sea Fleet's commander.

The same news agency later quoted an unnamed representative at the fleet's headquarters as saying no assault was planned, adding: "This is complete nonsense.''; 3/3/14, 1:42 PM
Writ Small said...: Those on the libertarian and war weary Right pounding (fairly) on Obama should reflect.

Obama's "red line" retreat from aiding Syrian rebels would not have happened if Republicans had supported their party's hawks and acted with resolve. Instead we had a lot of mocking of John McCain.

If you blame Obama's weakness for the sorry state in the Ukraine and you opposed any action in Syria, it's time to look in the mirror.; 3/3/14, 3:42 PM
The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...: "If you blame Obama's weakness for the sorry state in the Ukraine and you opposed any action in Syria, it's time to look in the mirror."

I don't think many are particularly concerned about the Crimea and Syria. The concern is that Obama's flabby posturing regarding those places will encourage some serious adversaries (China and Iran come to mind) to push the envelope in places where we cannot afford to yield. Shitty messaging has started many a war.; 3/3/14, 3:53 PM
Oso Negro said...: Blogger Alex said...

Tell me why Joe Shmoe in Peoria needs to care about this.

The 20th Century says hello, Alex. One day Joe Shmoe is hanging out at the malt shop in Peoria while Hitler and Stalin are gobbling up Poland, the next day he is landing on fucking Omaha Beach. You do understand what rapacious dictators do right? Rape and they dictate, rape and dictate, rape and dictate.; 3/3/14, 4:21 PM
Peter said...: One fallout from this will surely be a rush by nations without nuclear weapons to obtain them.

A U.S. 'nuclear umbrella'? If there ever was one, there surely is none now.; 3/3/14, 5:56 PM
Big Mike said...: For months the Germans in Sudetenland have been suffering under the torture of the Czechoslovak government. This is a problem which the Versailles Diktat created - a problem which has deteriorated until it becomes intolerable for us. The Sudeten German population was and is a German. This German minority living there has been ill-treated in the most distressing manner. More than 1,000,000 people of German blood had in the years 1919-1920 to leave their homeland. As always, I attempted to bring about, by the peaceful method of making proposals for revision, an alteration of this intolerable position. It is a lie when the outside world says that we only tried to carry through our revisions by pressure. Fifteen years before the National Socialist Party came to power there was the opportunity of carrying out these revisions by peaceful settlements and understanding.

Vlad Putin is merely doing what Hollywood does, and recycling an old script. The above are the opening words for Adolph Hitler's speech in the Reichstag on October 1st, 1939, as his troops were invading Czechoslovakia. What worked in 1939 is working again 75 years later in 2014.; 3/3/14, 5:57 PM
Howard said...: http://motls.blogspot.com/2014/03/russia-can-hardly-allow-crimea-to.html

Relatively to my expectations, Russia remained incredibly calm and peaceful in the wake of the new Ukrainian "revolution". Putin et al. may try to keep their Olympic-inspired image of the saints; or they are just too upset about Yanukovitch's inability to protect his country from chaos; or they know or believe that the more patience they will display, the better for them.

Interesting take from a conservative Czech string theorist. In the comments, someone is spinning a neocon conspiracy to destabilize Putin by fostering the democratic revolution coup.

This led me to the stories about assistant US secretary of state, Victoria Nuland, (husband of repub neocon Robert Kagan) whom some think was behind the coup. Maybe Ozero continues to be sneaky badass adventurist making dick moves.; 3/3/14, 6:13 PM
Limited Blogger said...: This is all so 19th century, so antiquated: ultimatums, the use of force, horses and bayonets.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MfkOXQXdUjs; 3/3/14, 6:44 PM
Douglas B. Levene said...: " So when do we accept that Crimea is part of Russia? Will the Tatar and Ukrainian minorities leave voluntarily and peacefully?"

The problem with this approach (actually there are many problems, but I will only discuss one) is that the Crimea is wholly dependent on the mainland for water and power. Russia cannot hold the Crimea without also having control over the mainland, i.e., the eastern Ukraine. So we can see where this is going. What will your response be then? "When do we accept that the eastern Ukraine is part of Russia?" I think that's what you (and your ilk will say) and more importantly, that's what Putin expects you (and the White House) to say.

We went down the road on European territorial aggression in the last century and it didn't work out so well. I'm kind of surprised that there are still people around who think that it's just not that bad.; 3/3/14, 6:59 PM
readering said...: There's no need to go back to the Sudetenland. Just look at the break-up of Yugoslavia over the past two decades. Russia objected strongly without success to bits pulling away from Serbia based on demographic arguments.

I don't see how anyone could seriously believe that Putin would be deterred by this by President John McCain. Among the presidents who did not intervene over Russian aggression, because they didn't want WW3, count F. Roosevelt (Eastern Europe), Truman (ditto), Eisenhower (Hungary), Kennedy (Berlin Wall), L. Johnson (Czechoslovakia), Carter (Afghanistan), Clinton (Abkhazia) and G.W. Bush (Georgia).; 3/3/14, 7:13 PM
Limited Blogger said...: @Big Mike -- wow. Wish I could link to your comment. Everyone should read it.; 3/3/14, 7:24 PM
Smilin' Jack said...: ""If they won't surrender by 5 a.m. tomorrow, there will be a military storm on all UA (Ukraine Armed) military forces all over Crimea."" Said Aleksandr Vitko, Russia's Black Sea fleet commander..."We call for a responsible approach, to put aside geopolitical calculations, and above all to put the interests of the Ukrainian people first," said Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov

As we learned in Vietnam, sometimes it is necessary to destroy people in order to put their interests first.; 3/3/14, 9:25 PM
furious_a said...: So when do we accept that Crimea is part of Russia?

We need to accept that the Russian Navy and merchant fleet need a home port (Sebastopol) that stays ice-free year round. And an outlet for their Don River traffic. None of Russia's other "industrial" rivers has an ice-free blue water outlet, except the Volga -- but that empties into the Caspian Sea.

Maybe the contending sides could settle on some sort of Guantanamo arrangement but where Ukraine actually cashes the rent checks.; 3/3/14, 10:10 PM
Ken Mitchell said...: Fen said: "But realistically, we aren't going to war over this

Because the only options are 1) do nothing or 2) global thermonuclear war.

Really tired of this false dilemma being trotted out.

How about we at least land american troops in Poland? Just so Putin doesn't get any ideas about them too?
__________

Russia doesn't have much of an economy besides gas and oil. Convince the EU to go full-speed on fracking and drilling, and watch oil prices sag, taking what's left of the Russian and Iranian economies with them.

Obama would never do this, of course, and I suspect that he's always been not-so-secretly pro-Soviet to begin with.

And the EU is just as bad.; 3/3/14, 11:42 PM
Joe said...: For all those wringing their hands and suggesting "we must do something." Do what, exactly?; 3/4/14, 12:04 AM
Fen said...: For all those wringing their hands and suggesting "we must do something." Do what, exactly?

First - you should go fuck yourself until you start asking questions in good faith. Otherwise, its a waste of time to even put words to print.; 3/4/14, 3:06 AM
Fen said...: "wringing" your hands. What a douche.; 3/4/14, 3:06 AM
Rusty said...: Joe said...
For all those wringing their hands and suggesting "we must do something." Do what, exactly?

Refer to other threads on this topic. Several avenues have been suggested.; 3/4/14, 5:57 AM
Rusty said...: Writ Small said...
Those on the libertarian and war weary Right pounding (fairly) on Obama should reflect.

Obama's "red line" retreat from aiding Syrian rebels would not have happened if Republicans had supported their party's hawks and acted with resolve. Instead we had a lot of mocking of John McCain.

If you blame Obama's weakness for the sorry state in the Ukraine and you opposed any action in Syria, it's time to look in the mirror.

Foreign policy begins in the White House.
here is a lot a president can do short of all out military intervention.
Syria is a red on red civil war.
I think a better comparison would be if Obama had given timely support of Iran's Green Revolution we might not be seeing so many people being strung up on cranes.
All he had to do was say something, but as usual he was a day late and a lame ass statement short.; 3/4/14, 6:11 AM
Joe said...: Refer to other threads on this topic. Several avenues have been suggested.

I haven't seen a single suggestion which isn't unrealistic, silly and/or pure posturing, divorced from reality and history.

Fen, I stand by my question. It was not asked in bad faith. It is the same hand wringing and whining the opposition displays toward the sitting president. Ironically, your putting-hands-over-ears dismissal is generally the same response.; 3/4/14, 8:11 PM