Althouse: Pre-election jobs numbers fabricated.

November 19, 2013

Pre-election jobs numbers fabricated.

The NY Post reports.

63 comments:

Matt Sablan said...: ... I'm going to end up eating crow about the whole "the election was completely fair, Romney just lost" posts I've made here and elsewhere, aren't I?

Between the IRS suppressing free speech and now this, I really, honestly, think that I may need to find out what sauce goes good with my hat.; 11/19/13, 11:09 AM
Gahrie said...: President Obama and some functonary will come out and take responsibility...but there will be no consequences for anyone besides the American people.; 11/19/13, 11:12 AM
Renee said...: Republicans are still icky.; 11/19/13, 11:13 AM
Seeing Red said...: And for some strange reason during the "shutdown" the US spent absolutely no money at all.

If you don't know what they're doing to Walker, Matthew, you should take a look.; 11/19/13, 11:13 AM
Seeing Red said...: Just like that city that elected a republican mayor for the 1st time in decades, now the mayor's job is too strong so the dems will give more power to the legislature.

Just like Torchy & Kennedy, changing the rules so they always win.; 11/19/13, 11:14 AM
mesquito said...: I find it hard to believe that the people who politicized and corrupted the EPA, the National Park Service, the DOJ and the IRS would also politicize and corrupt the Census Bureau.; 11/19/13, 11:16 AM
Bob Boyd said...: @Matthew
Brine it first in the tears of the faithful. It'll be the best damn hat you ever ate.; 11/19/13, 11:16 AM
Paul said...: Obama betrayed America?

Who would have guessed it.

It's only Chicago politics to him and his gang.; 11/19/13, 11:18 AM
Original Mike said...: Chris Matthews had a stroke over these racist allegations back then.; 11/19/13, 11:20 AM
SteveR said...: I know that bringing the Census Bureau under White House control in 2009 was probably about getting the Congressional districts lined out, but this worked out nicely.; 11/19/13, 11:21 AM
Original Mike said...: I remember being a bit incredulous at the suggestions of manipulated data. They wouldn't do something so blatant, would they?; 11/19/13, 11:22 AM
Bill Harshaw said...: Skimming it, I don't see any allegation that Buckmon falsified his interviews only in September 2012. If he was consistently falsifying his work, seems as if the effect would be neutral.; 11/19/13, 11:23 AM
Original Mike said...: "...I may need to find out what sauce goes good with my hat."

You can never go wrong with cheese.; 11/19/13, 11:28 AM
KLDAVIS said...: Bill,

In other words, fake but accurate?; 11/19/13, 11:29 AM
Ctmom4 said...: Hah! Jack Welch was right!; 11/19/13, 11:29 AM
Matt Sablan said...: "If he was consistently falsifying his work, seems as if the effect would be neutral."

-- Clarify what you mean by "neutral." The way I hear it, neutral would mean that it all balances out, which would require him to falsify his data in ways that always helped the incumbent party, which, let's just say, I find unlikely.; 11/19/13, 11:29 AM
Virgil Hilts said...: Ann, why have you been so quiet (unless I missed it) about the stuff going on with special prosecutor Francis Schmitz in Wisconsin. Hopefully, you and Meade were not raided at dawn and then subjected to a gag order.; 11/19/13, 11:31 AM
PB said...: Isn't there anyone violating some law? My god! It seems that weekly someone should be perp-walked in to the arms justice.; 11/19/13, 11:32 AM
DavidD said...: "What difference, at this point, does it make?"; 11/19/13, 11:32 AM
Henry said...: There's a lot of information missing from that article.

We have one Census employee who has come clean about fabricating job numbers -- in 2010.

That employee -- Julius Buckmon -- and at least one unnamed source say that other Census employees fabricated job numbers and "that it escalated at the time President Obama was seeking reelection in 2012 and continues today."

The motivation for the fraud, so far as it is explained by Buckmon, is stress avoidance: the employee can't come up with sufficient response rates for the survey; a manager tell him to make up the numbers.

The story doesn't reveal what kind of numbers were made up (positive, negative, or a realistic-seeming extrapolation) or why the fraud escalated in 2012. You can draw your inferences and the story encourages you to do so, but the question still needs an answer.

There's a few ways this plays out:

1) It gets ignored. Drop in the bucket.

2) It gets exposed as low-level stress avoidance, exactly as Buckmon describes.

3) It turns into an IRS-style tangle of obfuscated chains of command, confused justifications, and a lot of CYA.

Personally I think 2 most likely.

At worst it turns into 3. Expect the left to start running interference once it bumps past 2.; 11/19/13, 11:34 AM
John henry said...: Matthew,

Jesus loved the sinner who repented more than the 99 others who didn't need to.

You were wrong before and many of us pointed it out.

It is big of you to recognize your error.

It is even bigger to accept it publicly as you just did.

All is forgiven. Welcome home.

No need to actually eat your hat. Certainly not on my account.
John Henry; 11/19/13, 11:44 AM
David said...: There are easier ways to fudge these numbers, mostly through methodology. The most striking is eliminating all persons who have "stopped looking for work" from the unemployed. The big question is how many people are working. That is one of the easiest to determine and gets too little attention.; 11/19/13, 11:46 AM
David said...: There are easier ways to fudge these numbers, mostly through methodology. The most striking is eliminating all persons who have "stopped looking for work" from the unemployed. The big question is how many people are working. That is one of the easiest to determine and gets too little attention.; 11/19/13, 11:47 AM
Clyde said...: If you like your fabricated pre-election job numbers, you can keep your fabricated pre-election job numbers. Period!; 11/19/13, 11:48 AM
Carol said...: It's rather like how casualties were fudged by the government during WWII...for morale, you know.; 11/19/13, 11:52 AM
Michael K said...: The Obama people have done an excellent job of using the partisan civil service as an arm of OFA. It is no surprise that people who work for government want those who expand government to win. In the past, this was probably suppressed because the consequences of getting caught, Hatch ACT and all that, were unpleasant. Now, we have an administration that rewards chicanery in support of its goals (see Fast and Furious) and punishes those who fail to support or even oppose its goals.

Also there is this.

College students who cheated on a simple task were more likely to want government jobs, researchers from Harvard University and the University of Pennsylvania found in a study of hundreds of students in Bangalore, India.

Then, for those inclined to conspiracy theories, there is this.

I looked into the story of the deaths of Brittany Murphy and her husband months ago, because of its interface with the government’s bizarre and overbearing treatment of a Homeland Security whistleblower: Julia Davis, the woman quoted in the video clip above.

Since becoming a whistleblower, Davis has been the subject of IRS inquiries as well as a series of overbearing investigations for petty offenses. I have spent hours reviewing court documents from a lawsuit filed by Davis, watching a documentary about Davis’s story, listening to interviews with Davis, and corresponding with her. It is a story with four dead bodies, of which Murphy and her husband are only two. Let me try to summarize it as succinctly as possible.

Five years ago I would not have wasted the time reading this. Now ? I think a lot of us are wondering about this crowd.; 11/19/13, 11:56 AM
Known Unknown said...: How about the Employment Rate? I don't understand why we give a shit about people looking/not looking for work and just use the # of actual people working.; 11/19/13, 11:57 AM
Anonymous said...: "I have been warning you for a while not to sleep on Scott Walker, the goggle-eyed homunculus hired by Koch Industries to manage their midwest subsidiary formerly known as the state of Wisconsin. The man is running for president, and he has a story to tell that will play the Bach G-Minor Concerto on the G-spots of the Republican base, and he's giving speeches in Alabama, and he's got a book coming -- ghosted by amoral torture-enthusiast Marc Thiessen, no less -- and he's already starting to fudge his resume.
About a month before his recall election, monthly estimates showed Walker had lost jobs his first year in office. To counter that, Walker sped the release of actual job counts showing job gains. "The numbers we're talking about today aren't a poll," he said at the time. "They're an actual survey of more than 150,000 employers of this state." The numbers Walker highlighted that day and for more than a year since are the backbone of the federal government's Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which economists regard as the most thorough and accurate job measure. Now, with Walker's next election a little more than a year away, and the latest census job numbers due out later this week, Walker is highlighting a different metric. "Rankings that come out are typically based on quarterly numbers that come out from [the Bureau of Labor Statistics], which are a six-month lag," he says. "What we're trying to look at is not six months ago ... but where are we going to be in the next six months.""

http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/Scottymatics_In_Wisconsin; 11/19/13, 11:59 AM
RecChief said...: I said that for three months leading up to the election, and was called racist for it.

Guess that makes the NYT racist.

Sorry Matthew Sablan, yes you are going to have to eat your hat.; 11/19/13, 12:06 PM
Known Unknown said...: goggle-eyed homunculus hired by Koch Industries to manage their midwest subsidiary formerly known as the state of Wisconsin.

The 'news' in the article would have a lot more traction, Inga, if it wasn't cloaked in hate filled terrible prose.; 11/19/13, 12:12 PM
great Unknown said...: Given the total amorality of this administration's actors, maybe the birthers are also right?

No, I don't want to see what would happen if that was shown to be true. There would be blood in the streets.; 11/19/13, 12:12 PM
RecChief said...: Inga- so a Democrat starts another investigation, that looks politically motivated. Aren't you concerned with the effect on this country of such political prosecutions?; 11/19/13, 12:12 PM
cubanbob said...: Why is anyone shocked by this? Did anyone expect honesty from the shovel ready bullshit Administration? Inga, you are so touching. Indeed if Walker was five times more mendacious than what the Democrats claim he is he would be one tenth as mendacious as they are. Projection Inga, projection.; 11/19/13, 12:18 PM
Marty said...: Inka for the win!; 11/19/13, 12:24 PM
Rusty said...: No. Seriously, Inga. Put the shovel down.; 11/19/13, 12:25 PM
MattL said...: I have no idea how consequential the bad data was, but I can guess who will be the maddest about it. At least, if it makes it into a newspaper he reads.; 11/19/13, 12:37 PM
Original Mike said...: "About a month before his recall election, monthly estimates showed Walker had lost jobs his first year in office. To counter that, Walker sped the release of actual job counts showing job gains."

I don't understand. Is there evidence the numbers were bogus?; 11/19/13, 12:43 PM
Carol said...: if it wasn't cloaked in hate filled terrible prose.

The left loves hate.; 11/19/13, 12:52 PM
Known Unknown said...: The hate I can deal with, it's the awful writing I cannot abide.; 11/19/13, 1:03 PM
Brennan said...: I will take it as a good sign that the whistle blowers are the perps themselves and not some Washington career door knob blaming a field office.; 11/19/13, 1:10 PM
Levi Starks said...: Please explain to me the difference between Obama, and an african dictator....; 11/19/13, 1:12 PM
PackerBronco said...: Once again, those wacky low-level staffers are making life difficult for The One.; 11/19/13, 1:14 PM
Levi Starks said...: Wait, I think I figured it out,
Obama wasn't born in africa.....; 11/19/13, 1:20 PM
ndspinelli said...: Inga is studiously avoiding the elderly alcohol thread.; 11/19/13, 1:27 PM
Sam L. said...: Quelle suprise!; 11/19/13, 1:38 PM
I'm Full of Soup said...: We now make a S. American dictatorships and Pravda look good.; 11/19/13, 1:44 PM
I'm Full of Soup said...: We now make a S. American dictatorships and Pravda look good.; 11/19/13, 1:44 PM
Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...: Just wait until Obama reads about this in the newspaper!; 11/19/13, 2:22 PM
jacksonjay said...: Bamboozled!

Hoodwinked!

SUCKERS, he says with the flip of his middle finger!; 11/19/13, 2:28 PM
jacksonjay said...: Rogue low-level Cincinnati office employees! Phony scandal!; 11/19/13, 2:34 PM
damikesc said...: IRS attacks conservatives groups. Census fabricates jobs numbers.

...and nobody is punished. Literally nobody.

Odd.

Can anybody explain how the spoils system was WORSE than this? At least back then, Presidents had accountability since it was THEIR people who did it.

And for some strange reason during the "shutdown" the US spent absolutely no money at all.

And once it ended, we spent A TON of money.; 11/19/13, 2:48 PM
Rusty said...: Levi Starks said...
Please explain to me the difference between Obama, and an african dictator....

That's Raciss!!

Any other dictator.; 11/19/13, 2:54 PM
Chris said...: Q: What's the difference between the US and a banana republic?
A: Nothing. I'm curious if people who voted for him feel any responsibility to hold his administration accountable for its actions. If so, they're not showing it.; 11/19/13, 3:56 PM
The Godfather said...: I'm NOT paranoid! I'm sure I'm not. I'm sure that President Obama's re-election wasn't tainted by IRS schemes to keep the Tea Party out of action during the 2012 election cycle, by false unemployment figures, by Obama's lies about the effect of Obamacare on current insurance policies, by Candy Crowley backing Obama's lie about what he said in the Rose Garden about Benghazi, by AG Holder's stonewalling documents on Fast and Furious, etc. I'm SURE!; 11/19/13, 4:40 PM
Michael K said...: " I'm curious if people who voted for him feel any responsibility to hold his administration accountable for its actions. If so, they're not showing it."

Inga certainly isn't. She's rolling in it.

I don't think reality matters to these folks. Cargo Cult all the way.; 11/19/13, 7:14 PM
cf said...: I will admit my bias for the dream of an ever-expanding expression of a free people called Americans, so my analysis may be skewed, so I declare that at the start.

In any case, this latest ratchet in the gears of the last election by defiling the integrity of Census workers to become corrupt partisan hacks combines with the IRS de-flowering to make me think: all things equal, Paul Rayn is now our rightful Vice-President, and Mitt Romney is our true President.

I want to hear from our actual President and Vice-President about what we need to do Now that these Inga-clones have screwed up our economy, our foreign affairs and our future So Badly.

Talk to us, dear Misters Ryan and Romney, we could use your perspective and leadership.; 11/19/13, 7:18 PM
John Cunningham said...: It's obvious, comrades. anything that serves the party, is good, true, and worthy. anything that harms the party, is evil, bigoted, and raciss!! as Comrade Lenin said, the only question in politics is "kto, kogo," or "who, whom."; 11/19/13, 8:10 PM
Gahrie said...: maybe the birthers are also right?

Who gives a shit about the birth records...its not like it matters now, and history will tell the truth.

However I am more than slightly curious about the college records and transcripts. I'm willing to bet Barry Sotero, an exchange student from Indonesia will show up.; 11/19/13, 9:43 PM
gk1 said...: This would require an awful lot of coordination within the census bureau to pull off. I wouldn't put it past them but I don't think all of our institutions have been completely corrupted to the point you could do this without leaving a trail. That is a lot of reports to fudge and a lot of data corruption to pull off. Although govt workers still know which side their breads buttered on, I still think there are enough that care about what they actually do not to play ball.; 11/19/13, 10:58 PM
FullMoon said...: Inga said"Yada yada yadda , esquire blog, ...."
Here is a comment from the same blog:Richard Monahan · Top Commenter · Boston College
No it's not all cookies and milk in the land of dairy and cheese but significant progress none the less. Remember those claims of teacher cuts, ballooning class sizes and the end of education in WI . funny the oppisite has occurred. Her's one example among many: The New Berlin school district, with its 4,700 students, have already reduced health-care costs by $2.3 million, retirement costs by $1.25 million, and other liabilities by $15 million. The district hired new staff, reduced class sizes, and added programs. The Shorewood district saved $537,000 simply by bidding out its health contract (previously run by a union outfit), and also reduced insurance premiums for its teachers.

The union members who fought so valiantly ln the best tradition of the labor movement, how have they reacted? Relying on federal financial records, the Journal Sentinel’s Dan Bice found union membership has declined by 50% or more at some unions, including the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees District Council 48, which represents Milwaukee city and county workers. It has gone from more than 9,000 members and income exceeding $7 million in 2010 to about 3,500 members and a deep deficit by the end of last year. Similar numbers are leaving the teachers union.

Sitting in Chicago , as we enter our 57th year of living in the "Age of Municipal Enlightment" under Democratic rule, with a bankrupt school system, a bankrupt pension system, 10% county sales tax, and one of the strictest most useless control laws in the nation. and an unemployment rate at 9.2% the highest in the nation,
iIhave to say it could be worse. Thank God we don't have a bastard liar like Walker as Governor; 11/19/13, 11:12 PM
Matt Sablan said...: Like, I was one of the few Republicans I know in my little cadre of Republicans who actually thought that government wasn't, necessarily, an inherently dangerous thing. That it had its uses, and that it was a beast we could tame and put to good uses.

But, now? Now I am more and more having to concede that any power relinquished to the government is going to be a cudgel against my fellow citizens and myself. That means that even normal compromises I could have supported a few years ago, I can't. I've hit the buzzer and gotten shocked one too many times and learned my lesson.

No compromise until the swamp is drained or, at least, we've got a new group of people to compromise with.; 11/20/13, 6:52 AM
Bruce Hayden said...: This does make me sad. Worked for awhile for Census in the late 1970s, programming for the Decennial Census coming up. Knew some of the people doing this sort of statistics. Census was one of the few agencies I could morally work for, given their core mission, set out in the Constitution.

At that time, there was a lot of pride in the independence and accuracy of the agency. Wonder what my friends there (the few who haven't retired yet) think about this destruction of that ideal, that had grown over the previous almost two centuries.

I left after getting an offer to move into systems programming was revoked by the deputy or an assistant director or so, to keep me working on the Decennial until after the crunch. A vendor saw this, and offered me a bit more than Census could, if they gave me the next grade, which was problematic anyway. Still worked in the same building, the next wing over (but for NOAA) for the next couple years anyway, until I managed a transfer back to Colorado. At least back then, a lot of honest, hard working people worked for Census.; 11/20/13, 9:22 AM
Unknown said...: Hope the Pre- elections make a new changes in freshers lifestyle and get in with java, sas, Sap jobs in UK or any part of globe.; 11/21/13, 1:16 AM