Althouse: Scott Brown will go back to the Senate, into the seat Kerry will vacate...

December 21, 2012

Scott Brown will go back to the Senate, into the seat Kerry will vacate...

... unless this poll is way off.

The strongest potential opponent is Deval Patrick, and he's running 7 points behind Brown.

41 comments:

Michael K said...: Teddy Jr will step in to save the state from sanity and logic. Teddy was a killer, the Cherokee princess a plagiarizer, and Coakley a despicable person who kept Gerald Amauralt in prison as long as she could. Scott is up against a tough standard.; 12/21/12, 4:52 PM
Anonymous said...: This means nothing. The out of state liberals will pour money in to deny a Republican a victory. About five democrats (2 women) have to be caught buggering little boys before Brown will get elected.; 12/21/12, 4:57 PM
SomeoneHasToSayIt said...: Better than nothing.

And regarding Kerry for Sec State - I couldn't disagree more with his views, but elections have consequences, and , silver lining . . .

PRAISE GOD! Finally, at long last, a Man at the head of the State Department.

And good riddance to a long and disastrous string of Females there.; 12/21/12, 5:14 PM
Bleach Drinkers Curing Coronavirus Together said...: And we all know how predictive the quoted polls have been on this blog!; 12/21/12, 5:15 PM
Richard Dolan said...: Politics? Polls? Attack ads? Not that again, too soon. But there are some who just can't get enough.

Merry Christmas.; 12/21/12, 5:19 PM
David said...: Before they allow that, the Mass. Dems will change the law once again to permit Patrick to appoint Kerry's successor.; 12/21/12, 5:39 PM
jimbino said...: It looks like we will finally get a Sec of State who can speak a foreign language. What a concept!; 12/21/12, 5:40 PM
edutcher said...: Makes you wonder if there was something a little screwy about that last "election".

O Ritmo Segundo said...

And we all know how predictive the quoted polls have been on this blog!

Yes, only Ned Silver has the ear of Axelrod (which must be messy).; 12/21/12, 5:42 PM
shiloh said...: "... unless this poll is way off."

Unless he doesn't run for senate ie his wife wants him to run for governor. If Althouse loverboy runs for senate, he'll have to run (4) times in five years.

Speaking of polls:

Best public pollster of 2012: Public Policy Polling

"I took public (not internal) pollsters who polled at least four states in the presidential race the last two weeks of the campaign to determine who was good, and who ((( sucked as bad as Rasmussen. ))) Without further ado, the results from Public Policy Polling (IVR, or robo), Ipsos (internet), SurveyUSA (IVR), Opinion Research for CNN (live callers including cellphones), YouGov (internet), Marist (live callers including cellphones), Gravis (IVR), Zogby (live callers, I think), and Rasmussen (IVR):

Remember, this isn't all pollsters, just those who polled a multitude of races.

The winner should come as no surprise—our very own Public Policy Polling. ((( The loser should also come as no surprise—Rasmussen.

Rasmussen has always been bad, but it's hard to understate just how awful they were this year. ))) Of the nine battlegrounds and national numbers, they called the winner in just three races, or 30 percent. They were flat out wrong in five of the ten (they had a tie race in the other two, so not right or wrong). In contrast, PPP called the winner in nine of the ten races, and got none wrong (one was a tie).

((( The biggest miss of the lot was Rasmussen's—their 8.4-point flub of Colorado. Second place was Rasmussen, their 6.9-point flub of Wisconsin. Third place was Rasmussen, their 6.8-point flub of Iowa. )))If you want more awful, look at Zogby. Not only did their numbers suck, but they somehow thought Romney would win the popular vote by two points while losing Florida by five, Ohio by six, and Wisconsin by eight. Nonsensical. Gravis, one of the baby right-wing Rasmussens that infected the polling aggregators this cycle, tweaked their numbers late and still had some of the worst results.

PPP's accuracy was particularly noteworthy given the frequency of their polling. While many pollsters were selective about the states they hit, PPP was everywhere that mattered. And despite the kvetching about their methodology (robopolling) and lack of cellphone calling (much of that on this site), they nailed yet another cycle."

>

btw, a lot can change in 6/7 mos. as Coakley blew a 30 pt. lead in about a month. And Brown's potential opponents have name recognition problems which can be solved during a campaign.

And, of course, Brown has ad nauseam foot in mouth disease ie "secret meetings with kings and queens" lol etc. etc.

hmm, maybe Brown can go 6/7 mos. w/out talkin' to the press, much like Willard.; 12/21/12, 5:43 PM
edutcher said...: jimbino said...

It looks like we will finally get a Sec of State who can speak a foreign language. What a concept!

This assumes he survives the Swift Boat Vets.

For once.; 12/21/12, 5:44 PM
Big Mike said...: It's a long way to the election.; 12/21/12, 5:58 PM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: SomeoneHasToSayIt.
Shut up.
& - On behalf of Condi Rice -
*the finger*; 12/21/12, 5:59 PM
Michelle Dulak Thomson said...: jimbino,

It looks like we will finally get a Sec of State who can speak a foreign language. What a concept!

I assume that Condoleezza Rice managed to write a dissertation on the former Czechoslovakia and then sustain a career as a Sovietologist despite not knowing a word of either Czech or Russian, then. Amazing. (Her Wiki bio says that she studied French as a child, but then anyone could do that. Indeed, I bet even John Kerry did that.); 12/21/12, 6:24 PM
edutcher said...: shiloh said...

The winner should come as no surprise—our very own Public Policy Polling.

You mean the one that said 24% of the American public think the election was stolen?

Then again, anybody can look good if they know the outcome ahead of time.

hmm, maybe Brown can go 6/7 mos. w/out talkin' to the press, much like Willard

No, that was Little Zero. Even his loyal press corpse made mention of that.

So, um, tell us, what would you do about firearm violence?

You never said.

You've also never told us what was so funny about 20 little kids being murdered right before Chrsitmas; 12/21/12, 6:27 PM
Sam L. said...: A man, you say? I'll grant you some physical characteristics, but I would not go that far!; 12/21/12, 6:41 PM
Anonymous said...: In the age of Obama, do you think even a moderate Republican will win?

Please. More ballot stuffing like in Philadelphia and Chicago. Patrick's a;ready been caught with his hand in the cookie jar, and that FOO (Friend of Obama) was re-elected.

Brown's one claim to fame/promise was that he'd block Obamacare. He didn't. Then he lost to a friggin' law school professor in a race.

Whoever wins, we all lose.; 12/21/12, 7:03 PM
dcm said...: This is why conservatives were against Rice. Smoke screen.; 12/21/12, 7:15 PM
machine said...: But what does Dick "the Genius" Morris think?; 12/21/12, 7:16 PM
Bayoneteer said...: Fuck that poll. What does Nate Silver say?; 12/21/12, 7:37 PM
Moose said...: OMG - the evil planning! The genius!; 12/21/12, 7:40 PM
Moose said...: OMG - the evil planning! The genius!; 12/21/12, 7:41 PM
SomeoneHasToSayIt said...: AprilApple said...

SomeoneHasToSayIt.
Shut up.
& - On behalf of Condi Rice -
*the finger*

i won't shut up, pesky 1st Amendment and all that.

Second, don't presume to speak for you betters.

Condi was ineffectual, and besides, the fundamental problem in the world is radical Islam. In case you haven't noticed, they don't much respect women.

Got any fingers for them?; 12/21/12, 7:45 PM
tiger said...: Well, considering how badly the polls were 'off' 8 weeks ago...; 12/21/12, 8:00 PM
shiloh said...: Re: Condi, whereas she may have been an expert on Russia, at the time of 9/11, supposedly she didn't know squat about al Queda.

If true, very sad for a National Security Adviser.

Much like Clarence Thomas ie she's a conservative minority, so the con press is reluctant to ever say anything negative about either.

And the irony that Clarence Thomas squeaked by 52/48 in his SC confirmation w/11 Dems voting yea mainly because Thomas was an African/American minority.; 12/21/12, 8:04 PM
edutcher said...: machine said...

But what does Dick "the Genius" Morris think?

Whatever it might be, it's predicated on an honest count.

shiloh said...

Re: Condi, whereas she may have been an expert on Russia, at the time of 9/11, supposedly she didn't know squat about al Queda.

If true, very sad for a National Security Adviser.

You mean like Sandy "Socks" Berger?

Much like Clarence Thomas ie she's a conservative minority, so the con press is reluctant to ever say anything negative about either.

Oh, you mean like House Negro, Aunt Jemima, the way the Lefties did?

And the irony that Clarence Thomas squeaked by 52/48 in his SC confirmation w/11 Dems voting yea mainly because Thomas was an African/American minority.

Yeah, they couldn't Bork him.

Now what was your answer to the firearms issue again?

We didn't hear it.

And how about that Koskidz poll - they're so accurate doncha know - that says 24% of the American people think the election was stolen.

24%, how does Choom govern if a quarter of the country says he's a fraud and a crook?

And how about that vote fraud in MA? Maybe that's how Brown lost, ya think?

Rebuttal is good for the soul.; 12/21/12, 8:17 PM
somefeller said...: edutcher said:24%, how does Choom govern if a quarter of the country says he's a fraud and a crook?

You keep citing that number as though it is proof of anything important. All it shows is that those who are in the bottom quartile of the intelligence scale hold the sort of beliefs one would expect they would. They aren't relevant in the Republican Party (other than as part of the low-level voter and volunteer base - they generally aren't found among notable donors or operatives) so why would they be relevant for Obama's ability to govern? And the fact that they believe something to be true doesn't make it so, obviously.; 12/21/12, 8:34 PM
edutcher said...: They're not?

And how are we so sure they're the bottom quartile?

That's been pretty much proven to be Choom's base.

Now some phony folksy, taking up the gage for the little asshole, who couldn't answer my questions, knows full well that if a quarter of the american people believe the President is serving illegally, it represents a considerable problem in governance for this Administration.

All the Demos who did the Sore Loserman thing for 8 years (and I'm sure that includes some phony folksy) know just what I mean. You have a dedicated core of resistance to anything this Administration wants to do, not to mention their relevance to the Republican Party.

Plan B ring a bell?

How 'bout HHS Mandate?

How 'bout the '14 elections?

Yes, my dear, they are most relevant.; 12/21/12, 8:52 PM
somefeller said...: edutcher, they aren't relevant, other than as an anthropological phenomenon. The people who think Obama stole the election are, pretty much by definition, idiots. They obviously vote and therefore have to be paid attention to by Republican politicos who need their support, but they are the sort of barking losers who went around screaming for Obama's birth certificate. In fact, they are generally the very same people. The aren't usually found among the class of Republicans who actually do much in life. Most Republicans acknowledge that Obama won. They don't like that fact, but the ones who actually want to face and succeed in the world as it is have accepted that unpleasant fact and have moved on.

Actually, have you noticed that when you spout off your moronic "Obama stole the election!" comments, few if any commenters here support you? People who otherwise will think and say the worst things about Obama won't back you up, other than those who are often accused of being mobys, because they are so ridiculous. You might want to consider that.; 12/21/12, 9:26 PM
somefeller said...: Also, if one believes the commentary one sees in Internet comment boxes, Obama's base is composed of the goshdarned pointy-headed, sushi-eating affluent professionals who went to fancy schools and run the elite institutions in America, who don't know anything about the real America, by gum.

Welll, actually, that observation isn't completely untrue. But that group is hardly the bottom quartile of the intellectual food chain.; 12/21/12, 9:38 PM
shiloh said...: Since Althouse #1 doting, trained pet seal is too stupid to figure it out on his own, I'm doing Althouse a favor by ignoring most of his childish, cry me a river, 24/7 gobbledygook.

Again, ignoring many of Althouse flock con nonsense is a real time saver.

Not that there's much intuitive con thought spewing forth from this partisan blog anyways.

Althouse #1 doting, trained pet seals serves the purpose of a 64 y.o. inane court jester at best. On a good day.

Indeed, he's a reliable 24/7 blog hit which is all Althouse really cares about, in the final analysis.; 12/21/12, 9:44 PM
edutcher said...: OT: This should make Ann happy - Rumor floating around that Boehner will be replaced as Speaker by Paul Ryan.

somefeller said...

edutcher, they aren't relevant, other than as an anthropological phenomenon. The people who think Obama stole the election are, pretty much by definition, idiots.

According to whom besides some phony folksy?

I seem to recall the Sore Loserman crowd saw themselves as America's elite and they were easily proven wrong.

OTOH, some phony folksy wants to just airily dismiss it all and hope we'll let it die there.

They obviously vote and therefore have to be paid attention to by Republican politicos who need their support, but they are the sort of barking losers who went around screaming for Obama's birth certificate. In fact, they are generally the very same people.

24% of the country were birthers?

I'd like to see that poll.

Also, if one believes the commentary one sees in Internet comment boxes, Obama's base is composed of the goshdarned pointy-headed, sushi-eating affluent professionals who went to fancy schools and run the elite institutions in America, who don't know anything about the real America, by gum.

And all those low-information couch potatoes Messina bragged won the election.

Y'know, the people he worked so hard to recruit? Now which group of the 2 was the larger, do you suppose?

Welll, actually, that observation isn't completely untrue. But that group is hardly the bottom quartile of the intellectual food chain.

But the low info crowd is and they're all yours.

shiloh said...

Since Althouse #1 doting, trained pet seal is too stupid to figure it out on his own, I'm doing Althouse a favor by ignoring most of his childish, cry me a river, 24/7 gobbledygook.

Again, ignoring many of Althouse flock con nonsense is a real time saver.

Not that there's much intuitive con thought spewing forth from this partisan blog anyways.

Althouse #1 doting, trained pet seals serves the purpose of a 64 y.o. inane court jester at best. On a good day.

Indeed, he's a reliable 24/7 blog hit which is all Althouse really cares about, in the final analysis.

So are you. Since most of the commentariat finds the little asshole's drivel far more amusing than me, the only court jester is trying to change the subject from the fact he (whoops, she) just endorsed the fact that his (uh, her) pollster says the Administration has a serious governance problem in that a quarter of the people believe it exists illegally.

PS Funny, I don't see any rebuttal. You were doing better when you were some phony folksy, but not by much.; 12/21/12, 10:06 PM
Wince said...: Howie Carr made a great point about the special-election process.

The next question is, who’s Brown running against? Last time out, the Democratic machine was able to muscle aside everyone for the fake Indian (and then raise her  $42 million). But now they won’t have a state convention with its 15 percent requirement for a candidate to get on the primary ballot.

This time, it’s every moonbat for himself. This time, it’ll be more like, gulp, democracy.; 12/21/12, 10:21 PM
Anonymous said...: Shiloh is a she?; 12/21/12, 10:42 PM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: Someone..Plenty.; 12/21/12, 10:54 PM
edutcher said...: Inga said...

Shiloh is a she?

According to phx.

Hey, I just report the news, I don't make it up.; 12/21/12, 11:36 PM
Chip Ahoy said...: Michelle was on my tv yesterday and my body automatically went

GETOFFMYTVBITCHBLAM

Then today again, the oddest thing, muted, Michelle suddenly appeared on the tv again striking the 'I'm a pedantic Democrat' finger up pose, as they do, and my body automatically went

GETOFFMYGODDAMNTVBITCHBLAM

Then they showed her husband again, as they do, and my body automatically went

GETOFFMYTVBITCHBLAM

Odd jerking motions all over the place. Uncomfortable.

It's almost as if my body is trying to tell me it's in rejection mode or something.; 12/21/12, 11:50 PM
shiloh said...: "GETOFFMYGODDAMNTVBITCHBLAM"

Such eloquence ...

As Robert Cook implied a couple days ago, chippy boy needs psychiatric care ~ stat!

Indeed, it's gonna be a longgg 4 years for Althouse depressed con flock!; 12/21/12, 11:59 PM
AlanKH said...: Why didn't "Winter Soldier" send Kerry to jail? Didn't he confess to war crimes? And if he lied, wasn't that perjury - especially since he accused other soldiers of war crimes?

At least Kerry isn't going to be SecDef.; 12/22/12, 2:18 AM
AlanKH said...: Chip Ahoy,

Makes you wish Barry O would practice purdah.; 12/22/12, 2:21 AM
SomeoneHasToSayIt said...: AprilApple said...
Someone..Plenty.

Then I must have missed those posts of yours. Can you point me to any of them?; 12/22/12, 8:14 AM
sinz52 said...: Scott Brown has a major disadvantage: Many in the GOP base (cf. RedState.com) will refuse to contribute to his candidacy--just as they refused in 2010--because he's pro-choice on abortion.; 12/22/12, 9:19 AM