Althouse: A 99.7% reduction in the coffee supply.

November 11, 2012

A 99.7% reduction in the coffee supply.

Predicted.

62 comments:

rhhardin said...: You gain it back from no killing frosts in Brazil.; 11/11/12, 7:47 AM
Quasimodo said...: "scientific" predictions are wildly inaccurate in things like this. We have been out of oil for 50 years now according to predictions.; 11/11/12, 7:49 AM
ALH said...: I would like to know what Nate Silver's modeling says about this.; 11/11/12, 7:50 AM
Skyler said...: I seem to remember that the whole "climate change" deal was a hoax. Why would anyone pay attention to this?

Oh, I remember. It's because we also re-elected a communist to the white house. We really are that stupid.; 11/11/12, 7:50 AM
Shouting Thomas said...: I'd like to see the writer's credentials.

Most of the time these "scientific" hysteria articles are written by kids who've taken nothing but liberal arts classes.

Bet this woman doesn't know shit about science, and has never done any kind of work in a scientific or tech field.

So, chances are pretty good that the writer is passing on a PR release from an advocacy group.; 11/11/12, 7:56 AM
Michael Ryan said...: Ummm, by 2020 I predict that southern Sudan will be a no-mans land of genocidal attacks and counter-attacks anyway, so the coffee situation will be the least of their worries.; 11/11/12, 7:58 AM
mesquito said...: I love the precision of "99.7."; 11/11/12, 8:00 AM
kcom said...: Here's your writer:

Danielle Angel
Location: Guelph, ON Canada
Member since: August 6, 2012

Introduction:
I am a young writer working as a junior editor at a small publication.

What do you hope to get out of the group?
I hope to gain skills and meet new people!

What do you write?
I write news, entertainment, and media articles.

Have you been published or produced?
www.foodbeat.com and www.halfhourmeals.com

Do you have any expertise in anything you can share with the group for research purposes? You can still join if you don't.
No answer yet.; 11/11/12, 8:02 AM
Chip S. said...: The author of the linked article doesn't read very well.

The WaPo article she's summarizing clearly specifies that the study is talking about wild coffee. The study the WaPo summarizes says this about cultivated coffee:

Optimum cultivation conditions are likely to become increasingly difficult to achieve in many pre-existing coffee growing areas, leading to a reduction in productivity, increased and intensified management (such as the use of irrigation), and crop failure (some areas becoming unsuitable for Arabica cultivation).

Not quite what your post title says, AA.; 11/11/12, 8:05 AM
Unknown said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 11/11/12, 8:07 AM
Unknown said...: If you're in a con game and you don't know who the mark is.; 11/11/12, 8:09 AM
Unknown said...: For a couple of seconds the thought that this could be a real threat enterd my mind. Thank goodness it's bullshit.; 11/11/12, 8:11 AM
Sam L. said...: Climate changes slowly. Move the coffee tree plantations to the places the climate is now right--if that happens. Holding my breath, I'm not.

Disinformation is a skill set for those who claim to be our betters.; 11/11/12, 8:38 AM
X said...: Assuming the writer is a college graduate, this article reveals more about higher education than coffee althouse. I wouldn't say a 99.7% reduction in quality, but it's closer to that than zero.; 11/11/12, 8:40 AM
Darrell said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 11/11/12, 8:55 AM
Darrell said...: I remember in the early 1990s, some jokers at the University of Illinois predicted that by 2000 at the latest, Illinois would have the climate of Oklahoma/West Texas meaning our farming productivity would take a nose dive. It was a certainty--farm production down 80%. The Chicago Tribune and the local media made a big deal about this for a long time.

Coffee prices and high demand are opening up new growing areas every day. Too bad people don't havtopo bet their careers are bullshit predictions. The rise of the oceans is in the margin of error within our ability to measure any changes. No area on the Earth is experiencing any significant climate changes save for the margin of existing deserts (like in the Sahel in Africa). And that desertification is well known (understood) and explainable for reasons other than man-made global warming.; 11/11/12, 8:57 AM
chickelit said...: Frost on the roofs this morning for the first time I can remember--in Oceanside, CA.; 11/11/12, 9:00 AM
Leon said...: well i was going to say this was the stupidest thing ever written now i'll say that it's written by someone just ignorant. for this doomsday prediction to work there must be climate change which kills all the wild coffee. the wild coffee then in turn needs to be the ONLY salvation for the plague that kills all the domestic coffee. which by the way we've been using for how many hundreds of years. yea i'm not holding my breath; 11/11/12, 9:01 AM
Michael K said...: I wonder how coffee plants will fare in the coming ice age.; 11/11/12, 9:01 AM
chickelit said...: Anyways--I'm a sensitive person. Do I detect what might be an uptick in NYT articles regarding climate change? Real or Imagined?; 11/11/12, 9:02 AM
Unknown said...: There will be no uptick in articles about the homeless, Benghazi, Fast and Furious, unemployment, bad economic news or the need for sleeves.

So, there's that.; 11/11/12, 9:09 AM
Sheridan said...: Obama is a little busy now to take on the coffee issue. Perhaps after he's gotten the lions and the lambs to lay down with one another.; 11/11/12, 9:13 AM
ndspinelli said...: ChipS, Althouse trying to scare people they won't have coffee shops in the future.; 11/11/12, 9:14 AM
edutcher said...: Starbucks and Lefties hardest hit.

(hey, somebody had to...); 11/11/12, 9:17 AM
Darrell said...: Do I detect what might be an uptick in NYT articles regarding climate change?

Yes. In preparation for the tax tsunami that's in the works.; 11/11/12, 9:33 AM
Pastafarian said...: Funny stuff.

Coffee has as much chance of going extinct as corn and rice.

It's a non-zero chance for all, though, and if it's become more likely, that's because we've redirected NASA away from detection, tracking, and redirection of near-earth objects, and toward Muslim outreach.; 11/11/12, 9:49 AM
Eric the Fruit Bat said...: The extinction of so much coffee is a terrible thing but the 0.3 that survives will be like drinking 100 bottles of whiskey while someone licks your tits.; 11/11/12, 9:52 AM
SteveR said...: I'll be dead, don't care; 11/11/12, 10:11 AM
Chip S. said...: I've always enjoyed a 50/50 blend of 8 o'clock's Colombian and French Roast.; 11/11/12, 10:12 AM
Wince said...: Never drank the shit.

But this is one on the funniest Althouse threads I've ever read.

LOL!; 11/11/12, 11:08 AM
Joe said...: The Romans grew wine grapes in England. Shouldn't we be striving to get back to that?; 11/11/12, 11:12 AM
Chuck said...: For someone who is so interested in the art and science of the English language, this seems to be an almost deliberate act of misusage on Althouse's part.

"Predicted"?

Or "Theorized"?

The embarassing Fisking of the original author makes it something of a moot point.; 11/11/12, 11:14 AM
Big Mike said...: @Professor Althouse, I recommend you and Meade run right out and spend your retirement savings on a supply of coffee to hoard for the next 20 years.

Or cultivate a taste for tea.; 11/11/12, 11:16 AM
Robert said...: I remember reading that in ten years there would be no bananas because of global warming. That was over ten years ago.; 11/11/12, 11:17 AM
kimsch said...: chickelit:

It's nearly 66°F here just north of Chicago. Normal November weather. There's always a bit of "Indian" summer.; 11/11/12, 11:26 AM
kimsch said...: Leslyn,

We buy Eight O'Clock Columbian beans and grind them fresh every morning. Walmart has the bags at an affordable price, the local grocery stores not so inexpensive...; 11/11/12, 11:27 AM
YoungHegelian said...: I'm a tea man myself, so if coffee goes extinct I'm just going to sit in a corner & stick out my tongue at you all and say nyaaahhhh.......; 11/11/12, 11:37 AM
chickelit said...: kimsch said...
chickelit:

It's nearly 66°F here just north of Chicago. Normal November weather. There's always a bit of "Indian" summer.

It's up to 60 degrees now. Heading outside for chores. Happy Veterans Day and thanks for your service, Kimsch!; 11/11/12, 12:04 PM
Nathan Alexander said...: The global warming crowd reminds me of the land shark.

One argument is shot down, and they switch to an entirely different, mutually contradictory argument as if they never made the first argument in the first place.

Come to think of it, that is just like the arguments that Obama isn't the worst president in the history of the United States, too...

I'm sensing a trend here.; 11/11/12, 12:13 PM
kimsch said...: Thanks Chickelit!; 11/11/12, 12:24 PM
Chip S. said...: Don't get cocky, tea drinkers.; 11/11/12, 12:53 PM
Revenant said...: So we engineer coffee that grows at higher temperatures: problem solved.

Honestly, climate change alarmists act like we're still living in the stone age (they had to deal with climate change back then, come to think of it).; 11/11/12, 12:58 PM
Revenant said...: So we engineer coffee that grows at higher temperatures: problem solved.

Honestly, climate change alarmists act like we're still living in the stone age (they had to deal with climate change back then, come to think of it).; 11/11/12, 12:58 PM
hombre said...: The Warmists will try anything.; 11/11/12, 1:29 PM
Danno said...: It sounds like the shit is getting a little deep in this blog, so why not take advantage of it.

From Wikipedia- Kopi luwak (Indonesian pronunciation: [ˈkopi ˈlu.aʔ]), or civet coffee, is the world's most expensive and low-production varieties of coffee. It is made from the beans of coffee berries which have been eaten by the Asian Palm Civet (Paradoxurus hermaphroditus) and other related civets, then passed through its digestive tract.[1] A civet eats the berries for their fleshy pulp. In the digestive tract, the civets' proteolytic enzymes seep into the beans, making shorter peptides and more free amino acids. Passing through a civet's intestines the beans are then defecated, keeping their shape. After gathering, thorough washing, sun drying, light roasting and brewing, these beans yield an aromatic coffee with much less bitterness.[citation needed] This coffee is widely noted as the most expensive coffee in the world with prices reaching €400 per kilogram ($160 per pound).[2]

Since it has snob appeal, it will be right up her (Althouse')alley!; 11/11/12, 1:53 PM
Danno said...: Me? I prefer "Joe's Dark" from Trader Joes or "Three Beans Coffee" from Whole Foods, ground right before it goes into one of my coffee presses.; 11/11/12, 1:57 PM
coketown said...: Yes, perhaps the micro-climates most suitable to growing those particular types of coffee may disappear. But we shouldn't discount the possibility that a changing global climate will produce new, henceforth unknown micro-climates! Indigo climates that never existed on this earth! Think of the new varieties of plants these climates might let flourish. Give it a couple hundred thousand years and we may have coffees that make today's arabica taste like dehydrated fecal matter. Anyone for an Antarctic malbec? It's been a great century for Antarctic wines!!!

Shouldn't we enact policies that assume the highly unlikely possible future just described will materialize, rather than the less sensational but more-probable future of the status quo? Isn't that was Progressives do? Why shouldn't we?!; 11/11/12, 2:00 PM
Freeman Hunt said...: I predict a 99.7% reduction in the bullshit supply when the economy crashes and people won't pay for these articles anymore.; 11/11/12, 2:29 PM
damikesc said...: Seeing as how I loathe coffee, this is supposed to concern me? Less coffee = no problem for me.; 11/11/12, 2:34 PM
Rich B said...: You're onto something there, Freeman. Bullshit is an inexhaustible resource. If we could figure out how to run the economy on it, we'd be golden. Oh, I forgot, we did. In last week's election.; 11/11/12, 3:10 PM
Anonymous said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 11/11/12, 4:38 PM
James Pawlak said...: UK scientists? Computer models? Remember "climategate"?; 11/11/12, 4:44 PM
Rabel said...: It's not just the headline.

Amazingly poor work in reporting on the study by Olga Khazan at the Washington Post and Danielle Angel at Foodbeat.

Foodbeat, well, OK, but the Post, just damn.; 11/11/12, 4:51 PM
Emil Blatz said...: It's OK. I only drink Diet Coke, with Splenda.; 11/11/12, 5:45 PM
cf said...: The Agenda memo definitely has gone out. How about somebody leak those emails?

chikelit is right, we have an uptick.

I noticed it on Huffington Post's Front Page, was it Friday? big photo and cover treatment, and I thought, ahhh, the railroading has begun. Funny on that same day Drudge had a near the top item on Obama cutting out shale oil development in the West. HuffPo was mum of course, about that side of the story.

Notice how quiet GW has been all of 2012? And now, Bam!

Made me focus, always about what HuffPo Won't tell you. So I write my Democratic Senators and Representative about the unanswered questions of their party's administrations: 1. Do they agree that a President can single out and condemn an American citizen for exercising his Freedom of Speech? 2. What are you doing to end the corruption of your party that turned off the controls for contributing to our President's campaign? 3. How much did the last 18 months of campaigning by the President cost the American citizens?

Camille is right. This party leadership must be shattered.; 11/11/12, 8:24 PM
Alex said...: Even if AGW is true, what amount of drastic CO2 emission reduction would it take to avert the crisis? 40-50-70% in 5 years? It sounds to me as though a lot of people want to use the "crisis" to get a lot of carbon taxes put in place but not actually do anything to lower the temperature. What will the greens do about China, India who are burning through coal like there is no tomorrow?; 11/11/12, 9:25 PM
Saint Croix said...: leading to a reduction in productivity, increased and intensified management (such as the use of irrigation)

Oh no. Our coffee will need water. Call the UN!; 11/12/12, 1:16 PM
Saint Croix said...: Oh shit, I'm dead in 2080. Who gives a fuck about coffee? I'll be dead! 100% of me, gone. Where's my headline? Where's my scary headline? Let's get those computer models working and fix my crisis, damn it.; 11/12/12, 1:22 PM
Sigivald said...: Read closer. It says that only wild arabica "might be" in danger.

Maybe. If their models are right (which does not give any confidence at all). Sort of.

(Perhaps that update was added later, but the original source always had it, if you searched it out.

This is why one should never read repackagers - especially sloppy ones hunting pageviews.); 11/12/12, 2:26 PM
3john2 said...: Is this the same group that predicted blondes were going to become genetically extinct?; 11/12/12, 3:43 PM
3john2 said...: Is this the same group that predicted blondes were going to become genetically extinct?; 11/12/12, 3:44 PM
Fr Martin Fox said...: Leslyn:

Still waiting for that citation you were going to provide...

That is assuming your claims of fact weren't totally made up? You know, your claim that budget cuts prevented Mr Obama from being able you to safeguard our staff in Benghazi...

Still waiting...; 11/12/12, 6:17 PM