Althouse: "New Hampshire: Romney 50%, Obama 48%.

October 24, 2012

"New Hampshire: Romney 50%, Obama 48%.

"The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely New Hampshire Voters, taken the night after the final presidential debate...."

46 comments:

AF said...: Rasmussen's September 18 NH poll -- before the first debate -- had Romney up by 3.; 10/24/12, 11:01 AM
chickelit said...: These constant close poll numbers telegraph exactly how many votes Dems need to cheat in each state.; 10/24/12, 11:05 AM
AF said...: "Rasmussen's September 18 NH poll -- before the first debate -- had Romney up by 3."

I could infer from those two data points that Obama is doing better now than he was in September, but that would be idiotic.; 10/24/12, 11:05 AM
trumpetdaddy said...: Also known as Margin of Error. The essential point is that Romney is slightly ahead and the incumbent is under 50% 13 days out.

What changes this dynamic in Obama's favor? He blew the set-piece opportunities that the debates represented.

What changes this for him with less than two weeks to go?; 10/24/12, 11:05 AM
Patrick said...: Five meeeeelllliooon dollars...HA HA HA HA!!!!!; 10/24/12, 11:09 AM
Icepick said...: The lamest thing The Donald has ever done. Someone get him some Cialis.; 10/24/12, 11:13 AM
Icepick said...: The lameness of this is really hard to fathom.; 10/24/12, 11:13 AM
theribbonguy said...: Listen..hear that..its the sound of the Nate Silvers of the world heads popping.; 10/24/12, 11:14 AM
Icepick said...: I mean, most things Trump does are rather lame. This being the LAMEST stunt he's ever pulled is the part that's hard to fathom.; 10/24/12, 11:14 AM
Icepick said...: (pop); 10/24/12, 11:15 AM
Zaggs said...: But, but.....I'm sure others will use the HuffPo defense and trot out this USAction poll of NH (and VA) that has Obama up. Of course USAaction's website reads like an Obama press release. But thats their defense.; 10/24/12, 11:20 AM
mccullough said...: It will be good for Romney to win with some geographic diversity. W won NH back in 2000, but Republicans didnt carry any NE state in 2000 or 2004.; 10/24/12, 11:41 AM
Nathan Alexander said...: How come garage and AF don't care about obama's lie about sequestration?

Okay, we all know the answer to that, but shouldn't they be called on it more?; 10/24/12, 11:56 AM
BarrySanders20 said...: Was in NH this summer. Granted, the Lakes Region is Romney territory with his lake house there and all. Saw many more Romney signs than Obama even in the more hardscrabble areas toward Maine. Thought then that Romney had a great chance to win NH, even more than Wisconsin. These 4 EV's would be nice to flip.; 10/24/12, 11:57 AM
BarrySanders20 said...: Was in NH this summer. Granted, the Lakes Region is Romney territory with his lake house there and all. Saw many more Romney signs than Obama even in the more hardscrabble areas toward Maine. Thought then that Romney had a great chance to win NH, even more than Wisconsin. These 4 EV's would be nice to flip.; 10/24/12, 11:58 AM
garage mahal said...: Forget polls. How many fewer Obama yard signs are there in NH? MUCH better gauge of eventual outcomes.; 10/24/12, 12:03 PM
AF said...: Obama is up +1 in Gallup's poll of registered voters (down by 3 with likely voters). That means he is doing better now than in Gallup's registered voters poll from September 14-20.

Do I think Obama is doing better now than he was doing September 14-20? No -- to cherry-pick polls like that would be idiotic.; 10/24/12, 12:07 PM
traditionalguy said...: Have they already voted at Dixville Notch?; 10/24/12, 12:14 PM
garage mahal said...: Looks like a good post debate bump for Obama: Approval jumps to 53%, disapproval drops to 42%; 5-pt swing in one day.

Too soon to start calling him the COMEBACK KID?

;-); 10/24/12, 12:23 PM
Nathan Alexander said...: Hey, garage!

Why didn't it bother you when Obama lied about sequestration?; 10/24/12, 12:25 PM
edutcher said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 10/24/12, 12:27 PM
Nathan Alexander said...: Garage,
Yard signs are a different kind of poll, but it measures enthusiasm, which in turn should inform you on the relative difference between registered voter and likely voter.

As such, you should neither reject it completely, nor rely solely on it.

Just like all polls.; 10/24/12, 12:27 PM
Cedarford said...: garage mahal said...
Forget polls. How many fewer Obama yard signs are there in NH? MUCH better gauge of eventual outcomes.
==========
Funny, you liberals have been complaining that the press noting the absence of Obama posters that once festooned states is ACTUALLY an indication that the hipper, smarter, more adept Apple-toting social media people have evolved past yard signs.
That yard signs are now for the more backwards elements unaware that the smart way the Best in America profess love of the Messiah is now on the Internet.
Where you can reach out to other unemployed yutes living in Momma's basement by Fecebook and Twitter and text how much you hate Romney to ad hoc "Obama clubs" or get on their chat rooms to rant with other like-minded Obamaphiles.; 10/24/12, 12:27 PM
edutcher said...: It's over.

If Barry can't hit 50, he can kiss the Granite State a fond farewell.

AF said...

Obama is up +1 in Gallup's poll of registered voters (down by 3 with likely voters). That means he is doing better now than in Gallup's registered voters poll from September 14-20.

Do I think Obama is doing better now than he was doing September 14-20? No -- to cherry-pick polls like that would be idiotic.

Since only half of the registered voters will show up on election day, it doesn't mean too much.; 10/24/12, 12:28 PM
Cedarford said...: traditionalguy said...
Have they already voted at Dixville Notch?

=================
One of the stupidest ever media "traditions" on election Day
.
Expending considerable airtime and attention on a stupid small group of "Firsts!!" whose vote is utterly inconsequential.; 10/24/12, 12:32 PM
Cedarford said...: Trumpetdaddy -

"What changes this dynamic in Obama's favor? He blew the set-piece opportunities that the debates represented.
What changes this for him with less than two weeks to go?"

-----------------
Nov 4th, all TV is interrupted for a cutaway to Obama in the Situation Room wearing a Commander in Chief ballcap as a cutesy blonde spokesperson breathlessly confirms that Obama personally commanded his Fellow Heroes in the military, in 4 coordinated drone strikes on the "perpetrayers" of the nefarious attack on the Ambassador in Benghazi.; 10/24/12, 12:36 PM
Cedarford said...: Following The Ones Benghazi strikes, the media caresses The One. The camera follows him as he preens for 2 hours about how he "brought the killers to justice". With preaching inbetween that Romney doesn't understand a thing about the military as law lecturers like he instinctively know.."That cat Romney, lier he is, cancer giver he is...would have let those people escape like George Bush did before I straightened matters out."

"It takes a wise man like myself to know we are a country that uses drones and undersea ships these days, we don't bayonet them from horseback like old and uncool long past their time white bitter clingers think!"

"And here is Ltjg Ramona Estevez, an empowered proud Latina, who I had push the button on two of the Benghazi Evildoer targets. And she was joined by Tyrone Jones, a hero in the Army who just joined last year to fulfill his dream of serving under me, the smartest President in recent memory. Maybe Tyrone will be our 4th or 5th Black President."; 10/24/12, 12:45 PM
garage mahal said...: That yard signs are now for the more backwards elements unaware that the smart way the Best in America profess love of the Messiah is now on the Internet.

Most of us that voted for Obama never bought into hope and change, which was pretty silly. But just as silly is the apparent burning jealousy of that popularity. That's what the obsession with Obama's college records is all about. And the yard signs. They want Obama to be knocked down a peg in the worst possible way.

I just have fun with it is all.; 10/24/12, 12:46 PM
Michael K said...: Bob Krumm is getting <a href="http://www.bobkrumm.com/blog/?p=2445</a> realistic about the election.

<i>The fundamentals of this race have never been in Barack Obama’s favor. For two years he has underperformed George W. Bush. For more than two years he has trailed in enthusiasm by margins of no better than 3:2. For two years he has had trouble breaking above 50% approval–and those are in polls of registered voters or even all adults. That’s not a good place for an incumbent Democrat to be. 2012 was predestined to be a referendum election, unlike the one Obama won in 2008. If that wasn’t clear enough, especially after a disastrous 2010 mid-term result, Democrats have only themselves (and their media partners) to blame for their delusion.</i>; 10/24/12, 12:50 PM
Michael K said...: Oops, missed a quote mark on that link; 10/24/12, 12:52 PM
Michael K said...: "That's what the obsession with Obama's college records is all about."

If Obama had had any apparent qualifications for the presidency, the college records would have never come up. The only reason why he was a viable candidate is his race. Bill Clinton said something like that in 2008 and was vilified. I fully expect a lot of race baiting in the next two weeks.; 10/24/12, 12:55 PM
TosaGuy said...: "Most of us that voted for Obama never bought into hope and change, which was pretty silly."

I agree. However, I will contend that Obama's 2008 margin of victory plus some more was filled with the H&C crowd.

Obama, by being a canvas people could project their own desires, created expectations he could never possibly fill. Now many of those folks get to project their disappointment.; 10/24/12, 12:57 PM
Known Unknown said...: But just as silly is the apparent burning jealousy of that popularity.

No, it's the ridiculous cult of personality that festers.; 10/24/12, 1:00 PM
garage mahal said...: I agree. However, I will contend that Obama's 2008 margin of victory plus some more was filled with the H&C crowd.

I was always immune to it for some reason. I was a Hillary supporter. Realpolitik.; 10/24/12, 1:13 PM
furious_a said...: Obama's Firewall is on fire!; 10/24/12, 1:40 PM
Nathan Alexander said...: Some voter fraud, garage:
http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=gT77qP2Nai8&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DgT77qP2Nai8; 10/24/12, 1:46 PM
Drago said...: garage: "Most of us that voted for Obama never bought into hope and change, which was pretty silly."

LOL

An absolutely and hilariously false and utterly predictable comment now that the Hope and Change has been exposed for the vacuous nothingness it always was.

The backtracking on Hope and Change will be legion come Nov6.; 10/24/12, 1:50 PM
Drago said...: garage: "I was a Hillary supporter. Realpolitik."

Well, that explains the "success" of the "reset button".

LOL; 10/24/12, 1:50 PM
garage mahal said...: Better to be disappointed about Hope and Change than to knowingly go along with slick and evasive lies.; 10/24/12, 2:04 PM
Tim said...: Que Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers:

#ObamaFree Fallin'

"I wanna free fall out into nothin'
Gonna leave this world for awhile"; 10/24/12, 2:24 PM
Tim said...: garage mahal said...

"Better to be disappointed about Hope and Change than to knowingly go along with slick and evasive lies."

#DoublingDownOnFailure

#TheWorstLiesAretheLiesYouTellYourself

#Don'tMindHimHe'sNotRighintheHead; 10/24/12, 2:26 PM
Unknown said...: The Romney cascade is nearly at the unstoppable point.; 10/24/12, 2:38 PM
garage mahal said...: those hashtags are awesome.; 10/24/12, 2:50 PM
Tim said...: garage mahal said...

"those hashtags are awesome."

#Really,it'sOKyoudon'tgetthejoke; 10/24/12, 3:09 PM
Anonymous said...: "Nov 4th, all TV is interrupted for a cutaway to Obama in the Situation Room wearing a Commander in Chief ballcap as a cutesy blonde spokesperson breathlessly confirms that Obama personally commanded his Fellow Heroes in the military, in 4 coordinated drone strikes on the "perpetrayers" of the nefarious attack on the Ambassador in Benghazi."

It's already too late for that. Doing it now would depress his base, and piss off Republicans, w/o getting him any votes.; 10/24/12, 7:21 PM
Rusty said...: garage mahal said...
Better to be disappointed about Hope and Change than to knowingly go along with slick and evasive lies.

Said the liar.; 10/25/12, 6:48 AM