These numbers show a drop for Democrats from PPP's last survey of the race, which of course makes you ask, why? What's changed? Our pollster, Tom Jensen, offers his thoughts:Ah ha ha ha! They finally polled likely voters. Oh, how lovely it was living in fantasy land. What's changed??!!! They decided to try... the real world.
The biggest change is probably that this was our first time using a likely voter screen...
What an embarrassment!
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39 comments:
That is some unrestrained glee in this here post. I approve.
I cannot wait until you Wisconsin leftards are utterly crushed against the rocks of reality.
Thanks for the prompt on the bad link.
Fixed. (And prompts removed.)
Maybe the Polls of unlikely voters should be re-named "John Doe Polls" in honor of Garage's soon to appear 12th Imam Indictment signaling the end of the days of Walker.
"They decided to try... the real world."
That's their only option once they figure out that reality is turning inside their decision loop.
This is not the last laugh, Althouse, or should I say Meade since he has claimed this is his blog, as there are many miles to go before any of us are out of the woods.
Two big things that might keep Walker from winning the only poll that matters in June 2012:
1) No voter ID law in effect
2) New charges (real or contrived) from the John Doe investigation
If it wasn't for those two things, I'd be confident in Walker winning and would have some "unrestrained glee". As it is, I think he's still in trouble.
There's only one poll that matters, and it takes place in the voting booth. And I'm not sure I trust the results from that one either.
After the O'Keefe guy was offered Holders ballot, he got Bill Mahers, and Ben Jealous' ballot too. So the DC board of electors is looking to prosecute...O'Keefe!
So now they have three choices:
1) Accept their position is unpopular
2) Claim that the voter are racists, stupid, or both as a result of watching "Faux News".
Don't doubt it. They can be very creative with that second one.
Well, I had three, but then it seemed clear the third was just part of #2's methodology.
If I lived in Wisconsin I'd be pretty pissed has wasted 11 million dollars on a leftist jerkoff festival. I'll warrant by the time this sorry mess is over the house lefties here will change their names and pretend they were never for that recall vote to begin with. Is this what democracy looks like? Petulant feet stamping?
Or #3 could be support Walker and be happy with having your state saved from financial disaster.
Yea, but they aren't really behind that, are they?
"Petulant feet stamping?"
Tiny little feet.
What a waste of time and money for a democrat temper tantrum.
In theory, there's no difference between theory and application. In application, there is. -CP
This latest result confirms the earlier Marquette Law School poll: https://law.marquette.edu/poll/
"In the Wisconsin gubernatorial recall, the poll shows a very close race. Governor Scott Walker holds a 47 percent to 45 percent margin over Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett and a 49 percent to 45 percent edge over former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk. These matchups have tightened since January, when Walker led Barrett by 6 percentage points and Falk by 7 percentage points. State Senator Kathleen Vinehout trails Walker 41 percent to 49 percent and Secretary of State Doug La Follette trails 42 percent to 49 percent.
In a potential Democratic primary, Barrett has the support of 36 percent to Falk’s 29 percent, with Vinehout and La Follette each at 8 percent. A substantial 17 percent say they remain undecided. If Barrett is not a candidate, Falk holds a wide lead among Democratic primary voters, with 54 percent to 15 percent for La Follette and 12 percent for Vinehout, with 18 percent undecided."
AprilApple said...
"What a waste of time and money for a democrat temper tantrum."
Yes. But no one should be surprised liberal Democrats, fueled by public employee unions, are wasting time and money.
After all, it is exactly what they do best.
From what I can see, it's an honest poll, but things should tighten up once the Demos have a challenger.
"edutcher said...
From what I can see, it's an honest poll, but things should tighten up once the Demos have a challenger."
Doubt it. Barrett's a re-run, and his use of Walker's Act10 tools are an anchor. Once Wisconsin meets Falk (if she's the nod) the gap will widen because of her goofy liberal views, and she can hardly run from the "union" issue, and the Dems know that's poison.
Nope, they will look back at tis poll as "the good ole days".
Don't worry about it Bagoh, My daddy always used to say there were three kinda people in the world. Those who can count, and those who can't. :-)
I think the registered voter/likely voter distinction will prove meaningless in this race.
Everyone is voting that day. Period.
Both sides will drag every body they can to the polls.
It will all come down to about 3 percent of the population and whether or not they reward Walker for being the only politician in America to make tough choices before reaching the point of fiscal collapse here as is taking place in Illinois and California.
So according to this poll, Walker enjoys his biggest leads with 18-29 demographic, enjoys best approval rating with 18-29, and by wide margins are most likely to vote. Also, no cell phones were polled. :/
Carnifex and Bagoh: There are 10 kinds of people in the world -- those who understand binary numbers and those who don't.
They decided to try... the real world.
Instead of the Buffet Rule Buffef.
gk1 said...
If I lived in Wisconsin I'd be pretty pissed has wasted 11 million dollars on a leftist jerkoff festival. I'll warrant by the time this sorry mess is over the house lefties here will change their names and pretend they were never for that recall vote to begin with. Is this what democracy looks like? Petulant feet stamping?
How? Are they going to vacation in a safe harbor hotspot somewhere in Illinois?
Steve Austin said...
I think the registered voter/likely voter distinction will prove meaningless in this race.
Everyone is voting that day. Period.
No, a lot of Demos will stay home. They won't be able to bring themselves to vote Republican, but they'll be too squeezed to vote for Zero and another Pelosi-Reid Congress.
polling what most people actually think is so dumb and embarrassing.
only voters count. nobody else does.
what an embarrassment!
some people could give a shit about supporting the political elite and not want to vote at all. See, me in 2008, 2010, 2012.
I encourage all who think like Troubled Voter to follow his ways. Same goes for whom those annoying "Remember to vote!" signs apply.
"edutcher said...
No, a lot of Demos will stay home. They won't be able to bring themselves to vote Republican, but they'll be too squeezed to vote for Zero and another Pelosi-Reid Congress."
We are talking about Walker. The recall election is in June...not part of the general in November.
The self-described "reality-based community."
Fantastic.
This calls for more drum banging.
It sure is going to be amusing to see the DNC frog-march Mike Tate and Graeme Zielinski out of the WI Democratic Party.
Blowing $11 million on a futile re-call election during a presdiential election cycle is about as stupid as a party's leadership can get.
Isn't this robo poller Tom Jensen?
Oh, no, I'd much rather have them tout this as close all the way to the end and then get a 10-point defeat for [Dem_Flavor_Of_The_Month] crammed in their faces. THAT would be an embarassment. And would much more seriously wound their credibility.
No cell phones were polled, eh? That's actually significant. Lots of people are dumping their land lines in favor of cell phone only, and I imagine (although I don't know) that the phenomenon would skew towards younger people. Not exclusively, but there'd be some skew.
Winter is coming.
But Barrett just lockup up the Gwen Moore endorsement. This could be a game changer!
Expect some changes to their sample next week.
roesch/voltaire said..."This is not the last laugh, Althouse, or should I say Meade since he has claimed this is his blog..
We argued once about civility on the UW Campus / Madison / The Capital. You denied ever seeing anyone silenced in any fashion and it was all civil and respectful.
But above, the cheap shot, that the words on this blog must come from Meade the man, and not Althouse the woman, are completely disrespectful.
You didn't address the subject of the post. Just attacked the good Professor and suggested she doesn't have a mind of her own.
Open exchange of ideas my ass.
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