January 3, 2012
What the Recall Walker effort is up against.
Here's Scott Walker's newest ad, which I'm not embedding because it's so good.
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238 comments:
1 – 200 of 238 Newer› Newest»Cool, glad to see some Ohio donations (mine) going to good use.
. . . which I'm not embedding because it's so good.
What does than mean? There is more than one possible interpretation, and this blog should be about clarity, no?
Nice typography.
Really. Putting Walker against the white background allows plenty of room for the written message. They've kept the messages elegant and to the point.
It looks like a Powerpoint presentation -- but a really good one. A Keynote presentation.
If only it was true, I'd actually consider voting for the guy.
What does than mean?
Equal time. At some point Althouse won't embed some anti-Walker ad because it's so crappy.
There's a little rough spot after he says Wisconsin lost 150k jobs, and he says "Well ... " but doesn't talk up any new job # specifics.
That's because they aren't great, and don't favor him. So they throw around some 'headlines' to make it look like jobs are piling up.
But the rest of the spot is simple and effective.
"There is more than one possible interpretation, and this blog should be about clarity, no?"
This blog is more about giving you something to think about, and since you've generated more than one interpretation, I'd say I'm succeeding gloriously.
But Garage assured us all that Walker would soon be frog marched in cuffs in front of the media.
Why is a criminal like Walker being allowed to remain free?
Union workers contributing to their healthcare and pension like most people do.
This ad has 'win' written all over it.
Great ad. GREAT ad. Except at the end when he says "Let's keep Wis-CAHN-sin, moving forward." I would've reshot that to be less forced. Otherwise he's pitch-perfect throughout. Even sitting so as to appear more equitable, not in a dominant-standing position.
Let me preempt the Mahalotov Cocktail about the promise of 250K new jobs. Yeah, he didn't hit that campaign promise, but he nailed the deficit reduction part. And unlike Obama, Walker actually seems to be focusing on new jobs. Let the lefty whining begin...
The fonts aren't fancy. The sans-serif looks like a slightly compressed version of Tahoma which is a hugely common screen font. The serif font used (appropriately) for the "news" headlines is Times Roman Bold -- again, slightly compressed.
The key is that the type is presented with a lot of space and great clarity.
Here's my effective ad:
Hey Wisconsin, these recall elections are about one thing...selfish public union employees wanting YOU to pay for 100% of their lavish benefits and pensions. Stuff you can only dream about, and would gladly pay into just to have it. So if you want them to have all this free, while your taxes go up and services go down, vote for whoever they put against me.
Then run examples of abuse...WEAC Trust ripping off school districts, double dipping, shift stacking.
Joe Schmoe said...
Let me preempt the Mahalotov Cocktail about the promise of 250K new jobs. Yeah, he didn't hit that campaign promise
oh? As a numbers guy, I was disappointed that he didn't use some summary new jobs data. You're telling me the summary doesn't match the goal?
Drill Sgt, what is the summary number? I'm assuming it's not 250K or he would've said it.
Landslide win. Prime time in Tampa.
" Except at the end when he says "Let's keep Wis-CAHN-sin, moving forward." I would've reshot that to be less forced. Otherwise he's pitch-perfect throughout."
See, I can tell you're not from Wisconsin. When I heard him say that I exclaimed in admiration: That's exactly the way Wisconsin people want to hear the "Wisconsin" pronounced.
I've lived here for 28 years, and I can't get close to that. You haven't captured the pronunciation quite right either. It's: wih-SCAHN-sin. The syllable break is at least as important as the vowel sound.
:24 seconds before the first lie. That's not bad for him.
He's going to win because he has a positive message, and the other side is pure hate.
One minor criticism - I thought his hair was too lopsided.
Joe Schmoe said...
Let me preempt the Mahalotov Cocktail about the promise of 250K new jobs. Yeah, he didn't hit that campaign promise"
Joe, the promise is 250K jobs by the end of his first term. Which is three years from now.
I will add that all this protesting and recall bullshit does nothing to improve prospects for WI's economy. Businesses see a stable tax policy and business friendly state...but will it last?
:24 seconds before the first lie. That's not bad for him.
16 comments before you show up to dump on a Walker thread. Not bad for you.
:24 seconds before the first lie. That's not bad for him.
You mean government workers AREN'T contributing to their own health insurance and pension costs?!?
Shut the recall effort down! Garage says it's founded on a lie.
Anyone with an ear for language can perfect the idiosyncratic pronounciation of wis-CAHN-sin. It's not very subtle like some other dialects. Min-i-sooda is also fairly easy to perfect. These are Norwegians, they're not very complicated in any phase of their culture, including language
Clear. Outlines results. Appears uber-reasonable. Doesn't trash the other side. A great ad.
But such ads can only be made if you did something. No Walker opponent will be able to make such an ad.
Running ads like this with no competing ads from the other side will pay huge dividends. When the other side does start running ads, I predict that they will be so over-the-top that they will turn off lots of middle-of-the-road voters.
Calypso
No, Walker said he didn't raise taxes. He did.
Joe Schmoe said...
Drill Sgt, what is the summary number? I'm assuming it's not 250K or he would've said it.
No clue. I assume both of us were looking for it. If the goal is 250k in 4 years, it must still be fairly weak else they would have used something like,
"with three years to go, we're on picking up speed on our drive to meet 250k jobs in the forst term..."
good ad though, overall.
I wonder which lefty will post damnding that Althouse be excommunicated (yet again) from the Church of Our Hands in Your Wallet for complimenting a Republican.
They are so inclusive, they regularly denounce and seek to exclude those who disagree with them.
Thanks, Henry. That's almost certainly it. Doh.
"garage mahal said...
No, Walker said he didn't raise taxes. He did."
Actually he has not. The GOP eliminated one tax credit and the inflationary element of another...the latter primarily effects people who pay no taxes at all. Of course this has been offset by a few tax cuts, but never mind that.
But seriously garage, take your message to WI! I'm sure it will resonate when their income and property taxes have remained the same...or gone down!
There's a little rough spot after he says Wisconsin lost 150k jobs, and he says "Well ... " but doesn't talk up any new job # specifics.
I guess you can't multi task. Read and watch at the same time. Or did you watch the video with your eyes closed?
There are stats of companies that are adding or going to add jobs, showing on the background while he is talking.
It is a good ad. Low key music instead of the over the top loud drama music that many ads seem to favore today. Uncluttered background. Key points are reiterated in the powerpoint type of presentation.
He's lying. He did raise taxes by quite a bit, but only on government employees.
Well, if this doesn't prove that the guy should be compared to Hitler I don't know what will.
He's lying. He did raise taxes by quite a bit, but only on government employees.
I don't think you have the slightest idea what "taxes" are.
It makes sense that Gov. Walker's ads will be positive solong as Democrats have not actually nominated someone to run against him. I expect they'll become much more negative once there's someone to run against.
If it's Falk, I'd hope to see some creative work around the theme of "She and her Party cannot represent the public because they're owned by the unions."
But Mayor Barrett has carved out a small piece of independence from the public-sector unions. Which, while commendable, makes him a target as a hypocrit for using Walker's "tools" (which he did, no matter what the Journal-Sentinel says) yet failing to offer credit to those who made it possible.
Of the two Barrett is the stronger candidate, as the "solidarity forever" contingent will vote for him anyway, and he might pick up some independent voters.
In any case, I'd hope for some hard-hitting ads showing (as graphically as possible) how much school districts have saved from switching their business away from WEAC-Trust.
Gov. Walker does not have this election in the bag, as his opponents will have national support from unions and from the national Democratic party. Their campaign will be to portray the Governor as a tool of Big Business and the wealthy and against the interests of "working people."
Just as the Spanish Civil War gave the world a preview of WWII, the recall election will give us a preview of the 2012 national elections.
He's lying. He did raise taxes by quite a bit, but only on government employees.
Name the taxes.
"He's lying. He did raise taxes by quite a bit, but only on government employees."
You're lying. It was a pay cut.
Scott Walker is presidential material. It is long past time for unions (especially the greedy union goons at the top) to pay their fair share.
You're lying. It was a pay cut
No it wasn't. Do we have to explain again the difference between an actual cut in pay and the amount that you 'take home'. Gross wages versus Net?
Not a pay cut.
"He's lying. He did raise taxes by quite a bit, but only on government employees."
He did. How so? What I noticed is that Madison raised my property taxes. As usual.
"He's lying. He did raise taxes by quite a bit, but only on government employees."
So would pay raises then be tax cuts for those same employees?
You're lying. It was a pay cut.
Please, and I say this sincerely, correct me if I'm wrong. Isn't this even a stretch? I thought Walker's bill only excluded benefits from collective bargaining. They still have the option of negotiating wage increases (not that there would be any chance of success) to offset increased benie contributions, correct? IOW, what the unions appear to have hated about this new law is the increased transparency, not the "decreased" benefits.
The real problem with this ad is the jobs part. Though I would say as a Wisconsin born native, his overall accent sounds forced and not very local [to natives].
While he lists stories about hundreds of jobs being added - it's peanuts compared to the 150,000 lost he mentions or the 250,000 added that he campaigned on.
Anyone reading a local WI paper will remember stories from the last six months about closings/layoffs that dwarf the few positive stories he lists.
In the end, it depends on what people think about jobs when the election is held [if held].
He can make all the claims in the world, but for anyone in the job market Walker's claims about recovery sound as false and hollow as Obama's positive jobs talk.
Ads like this only work if jobs really are being added. If the people we know are still out of work, I would suggest it comes off completely false.
What I noticed is that Madison raised my property taxes.
I'd guess they had to pay a lot of overtime to cops last year.
A little too folksy, but you can't argue with his successes.
When whomever it is who beats GodZero finishes his second term, Walker will be one of the top contenders to succeed him.
You're property taxes were raised for a good progressive cause, a charter school for black young men. Wait a minute, never mind. The John Matthews Unified School District nixed that.
The Audiovisualist said...
He's lying. He did raise taxes by quite a bit, but only on government employees
Can you point us to the legislation that raised this "tax" and what the percentages were?
Thanks!
All you anti-Walkerites commenting here: Look critically at the way you've expressed yourself. Can you see how ugly you seem? It's off-putting. Meanwhile, Scott Walker seems like the earnest, decent, modest man that impressed us in the 2010 election.
You're showing that you don't understand what you are up against.
You're showing that you don't understand what you are up against.
This is has not only never stopped them before, it's never slowed them down.
If you want to see just how unhinged Walker opponents are, just read the comments to this ad.
You're showing that you don't understand what you are up against.
Agrees, irrational emotional responces hardly ever work in the real world.
I notice Paul Ryan has that same accent when he speaks & says "wisconsin", you can tell they are native sons
You're showing that you don't understand what you are up against.
You seem to be under the illusion that campaign ads alone will save Walker. He's spent over 3 million already, does anyone think the needle has moved? I don't.
You seem to be under the illusion that campaign ads alone will save Walker. He's spent over 3 million already, does anyone think the needle has moved? I don't.
I doubt the barometric pressure ever changes in that hermetically-sealed bubble of yours. No needle movement there!
I wish he would come to California.
All you anti-Walkerites commenting here: Look critically at the way you've expressed yourself. Can you see how ugly you seem? It's off-putting. Meanwhile, Scott Walker seems like the earnest, decent, modest man that impressed us in the 2010 election.
You're showing that you don't understand what you are up against.
I think most of understand the level of spin that we are up against.
He's lying, but doing so by omission and misdirection.
"I cut the deficet by dealing with public workers"
The first part is true (on paper) and the second part is true, but it's not the whole story. He cut over 800$ million from education. (I'd guess this is where your property tax increase went, since I think prop. tax have some requirement of being linked to education), he cut healthcare for the poor. He restructed our debt which will result in Wisconsin owing more...a lot more, in the future. Just because we don't have to pay NOW doesn't mean we're "balanced".
He talks about Jobs and his improvements, while Wisconsin is one of the biggest job losers in the country. The COUNTRY. (to be fair, I've always thought the executive branch claims/get blame for economy when they have little to do with it)
He talks about not raising taxes. Eliminating tax credits IS a tax increase. (Tax cuts for companies doesn't seem fair, even IF it balances (it doesnt).)
We get it professor. We end up looking like assholes because we have to call people liars and get them to think about complicated subjects when simple 'text' is easier.
He's a damn demon of spin, we know what we are facing.
"He's spent over 3 million already, does anyone think the needle has moved? I don't."
You wouldn't admit it even if you did.
Great ad by the way.
(As I note, I imagine our feeling is the feeling Republicans get arguing against Obama. He's a smooth talker and can always appear to be reasonable. I am not saying Obama is a liar or a "divider", but the "good ads, good speechs" is obviously frustrating to the other side)
Pulaski Marching Band Sticking with the Union
Ready....set.....whine!
This thread does a much better job than that Princeton ecology dude did at illustrating the concept of the "uninformed voter."
Theorem: An uninformed voter is a person who votes for someone other than my preferred candidate.
Corollary: Uninformed voters are either stupid, evil, or innocently misled by the lies told by the candidates I oppose.
(The proofs are obvious, and so suppressed. Available upon request.)
But DoS, he's seems like such a nice young man...
He cut over 800$ million from education.
I love how your default view is that this is just bad.
Love it.
PS:
the dollar change in spending from the last fiscal year to this year dropped $635 per student under Gov. Scott Walker's budget that took effect July 1. New York cut state school aid $585 per student. California cut $484 per student.
and the second part is true, but it's not the whole story
Hilarious.
Translation: you don't like the facts so you'll add a bunch of silly liberal bromides to them.
He's a smooth talker and can always appear to be reasonable.
You're talking about the Obama who's also the President of the United States, right? That Obama? I need verification, because I'm not sure based on this description that you mean the same guy I'm thinking of.
Garage said:No, Walker said he didn't raise taxes. He did.
Whatever. Net taxes are down. The biggies, property and income taxes, are level or down. Only in your mind is a freeze to the inflation adjustment of the Homestead Credit a significant tax increase.
DOS said:He cut over 800$ million from education.
Yes, because he provided the tools for districts to reduce costs by $900 million. "[Wisconsin] districts will come out ahead by nearly $79 million next year, assuming they aren't already locked into union contracts that won't allow them to force teachers to pay more for their benefits." Additionally, "districts could save $68 million if they dropped the [WEAC] insurance provider WEA Trust."
Dose of Sanity said...
(As I note, I imagine our feeling is the feeling Republicans get arguing against Obama
Comical.
The same don't call my bluff, Eric Obama?
The same Obama who was going to veto the payroll tax holiday with the Keystone XL pipeline provision attached?
Yes, because he provided the tools for districts to reduce costs by $900 million.
Wisconsin Dems assume everything must be a lie of misdirection and omission, because that's page number one in their playbook.
@ Dose
One of the things that the anti Walkerites have done that makes your position "ugly" and distasteful is the constant distortions and lies.
Distortion regarding the 'cuts to education' for example. In this article, which will not allow me to copy and paste, which is a partisan article against Walker....they even admit that the 'cuts' are not really cuts.
"The bigger impact on local school budgets is Walker's proposal to reduce by 5.5 percent next year the amount that districts can increase revenues, which combines state aid and property tax revenues. It would be the first time that revenue limits would decrease........
...For all districts around the state a 5.5% percent reduction in revenue translates to about a $470 million cut...."
Blah blah blah. Am reduction in the amount that can be INCREASED is not a cut. It is a reduction of the increasing.
Only the the fantasy delusional world of libtards is a reduction in the amount of increasing something a cut.
A CUT would be an actual reduction. LESS...NOT a just a smaller increase. Increasing is increasing.
When you get caught lying about one thing we can only assume that you are either a liar on purpose or you are careless about the facts or you are just plain stupid.
@ All
I'm aware that 800$ million cut to education may or may not be bad depending on your views. What I'm saying that is that is very disingenious of walker to claim he balanced the budget by "making public workers pay for their fair share". If I owed someone 100$, found a 1$ bill on the street, and then paid the 100$ and said I did it because I found a 1$ dollar bill...well, you would think me an idiot.
I'm glad we had this exercise in thinking critical and being rational. /sigh
he cut healthcare for the poor.
And I bet "the poor" aren't seeing doctors anymore!!!
PS:
Wisconsin now provides an average of about $9,500 per student
The horror!
"He cut over 800$ million from education."
My school district has not had to layoff a single teacher or cut a single program. The district also cut my property taxes.
He cut over 800$ million from education.
Yet my school district was able to lower its tax levy by 9.9% without layoffs or cuts. I wonder how they were able to do that.
But you are right about one thing, someone is spinning.
dropped $635 per student
$70 bucks a month per student? Are the libs actually going to argue that school districts are run lean?
Property taxes still go up and the schools institute more fees for those who can afford it. Asking the poor to contribute $1-2 a month towards something we can't do that.
Dose of Sanity said...
If I owed someone 100$, found a 1$ bill on the street, and then paid the 100$ and said I did it because I found a 1$ dollar bill...well, you would think me an idiot.
Actually, I would think you are an idiot for believing this is some sort of analogy.
@ DBQ
Did you even read that article? Second paragraph:
Walker's budget cuts state school aid by $834 million over the next biennium, a 7.9 percent decrease. That accounts for about one fifth of proposed cuts in the budget.
You can go ahead and look up his budget on the state website, it's clearly listed there.
Speaking of distortion and lies, you should probably try learning the facts and READING YOUR OWN SOURCES before calling someone a name.
"He's lying. He did raise taxes by quite a bit, but only on government employees."
You're lying. It was a pay cut.
Pay cut meaning small contributions towards benefit plans, right? But what about making it so union dues were no longer compulsory? If you are paying a small percentage towards benefits, but you chooose NOT to pay union dues, do you break even or what? I'm really curious, because if union dues exceed benefit contributions then Walker has actually ADDED to public employee take-home pay. And saved public employee jobs in the process.
If I owed someone 100$, found a 1$ bill on the street, and then paid the 100$ and said I did it because I found a 1$ dollar bill...well, you would think me an idiot.
Personally, I think you're an idiot for believing your hypothetical is anything approaching apt. Promise you'll let me know when you start actually "thinking critical [sic]and being rational," okay?
@ Jay
Since you don't understand (I know you do and are being are trying to be clever).
The person = the state.
The 100$ = the debt.
The 1$ = the money "saved" from the public workers change.
Since you don't understand (I know you do and are being are trying to be clever).
Jay clearly is clever. As you are still trying to assert that you've somehow constructed a meaningful analogy (or that your "clarification" helps it) you are clearly still not.
The 1$ = the money "saved" from the public workers change.
And the flexibility to outsource insurance which theoretically puts more money not only in school employees' pockets, but also provides flexibility to school budgets. As anecdotal evidence, some here have already benefited.
Rocketeer: Do you honestly not understand? Do you understand by just not like it?
I don't want to keep feeding the troll if you do. :)
And the flexibility to outsource insurance which theoretically puts more money not only in school employees' pockets, but also provides flexibility to school budgets.
I've always been curious as to why some would defend an organization that a) requires compulsory dues and b) only provides a single source for health care. When the microscope was turned on them and the single-source requirement nixed, it appears that the single-source in question was forced to drop it's rates in order to be competitive.
Funny, that, what?
And the flexibility to outsource insurance which theoretically puts more money not only in school employees' pockets, but also provides flexibility to school budgets. As anecdotal evidence, some here have already benefited.
Even assuming its true and they benefit, it's only a very small portion of how Walker "eliminated the debt", which is my whole point. Cutting the crap out of things and conviently failing to mention them is lying by omission.
Wow. I've gotta admit that the cuts to ed spending in Wisc. next year will be draconian. Here are the vivid examples of planned spending that will have to be cut, according to the article linked by DBQ:
New proposals include a $15 million system to track student data over time and a $600,000 program to help all students read by the end of third grade.
Apparently student data have not previously been tracked. Nobody has any idea how the kids are doing.
That probably helps explain why officials seem pretty sure that a significant fraction of rising 4th graders can't read. Surely another $600K would've fixed that little problem.
it appears that the single-source in question was forced to drop it's rates in order to be competitive.
And lower its benefits. Silly cause and effect.
Dose of Sanity said...
@ Jay
Since you don't understand (I know you do and are being are trying to be clever).
The person = the state.
The 100$ = the debt.
The 1$ = the money "saved" from the public workers change.
This still is not an analogy.
@ Chip
The article was not talking about the 800$ million cuts, but instead about the revenue cap. Two different things.
Dose of Sanity said...
And lower its benefits.
Really?
Where is your evidence of that?
You could raise taxes to 100% and its never enough for liberals.
@ Jay
See the question I posed Rocketeer. Being a troll or do you honestly not understand?
@ Chip: To clarify, the revenue cap results in a 490 million cut (above and beyond the 800 bill cut). The additional 490 is calculatd as a decrease in expected funds from local tax, rather than a cut from state funding. See the difference?
Chip S. said...
New proposals include a $15 million system to track student data over time
Isn't that funny.
And what will be even funnier is when they install the $15 million dollar system, it doesn't work, and $20 million more would be needed to "upgrade" it.
You could raise taxes to 100% and its never enough for liberals.
The only competitive tax rate is 0%. Oh wait, that one's true.
Dose of Sanity said...
@ Jay
See the question I posed Rocketeer. Being a troll or do you honestly not understand?
There is nothing to understand.
It isn't an analogy.
You can quit while you're behind.
There is nothing to understand.
It isn't an analogy.
You can quit while you're behind.
Ah, Troll it is. That's too bad.
And lower its benefits. Silly cause and effect.
Quite a statement. Care to back it up?
Dose of Sanity said...
The person = the state.
The 100$ = the debt.
The 1$ = the money "saved" from the public workers change.
You clearly don't understand the difference between debt and debt service.
The annual debt service on $100 of debt is something on the order of $5. The debt itself is not an annual expense. The relevant basis for evaluating the magnitude of Walker's cuts in annual spending is--obviously, I would have thought--other recurring expenditures.
BTW, the debt restructuring that you're so worked up about was carried out in order to convert a one-time, court-mandated payment into the equivalent (i.e., much lower) annual payment. It's a perfectly sensible and prudent financing policy in a time of budgetary austerity.
Dose of Sanity said...
Ah, Troll it is. That's too bad.
Mind you from someone asserting that "healthcare for the poor" was "cut" and that insurance benefits were lowered.
Of course those are all like facts, you know!
Quite a statement. Care to back it up?
If I remember - its saved on my home computer. If I remember correctly, its in the form of higher deductibles and copays.
Dose of Sanity said...
The person = the state.
The 100$ = the debt.
The 1$ = the money "saved" from the public workers change.
Using this logic we should never cut any spending because it would only be like $1 compared to the debt and stuff!
@ Jay
Are you from Wisconsin? Do you know what badgercare is?
If I remember correctly, its in the form of higher deductibles and copays.
And you consider those to be lowered benefits?
See the question I posed Rocketeer. Being a troll or do you honestly not understand?
I understand that for some reason you think this is an apt analogy. It is not. It was not when you first presented it, it did not become one when you "clarified." I am neither failing to understand, nor being a troll. You seem to be bright, most of the time. YOu are really failing badly here, and don't seem to understand why. I cannot help you.
Dose of Sanity said...
@ Chip
The article was not talking about the 800$ million cuts, but instead about the revenue cap. Two different things.
I'm aware of that, which is why I referred to next year's cuts rather than the cuts that have already been made with no apparent harm to actual school children.
We'll all be on the same page here if you'll just agree to replace "spending on education" with "teachers' salaries" in every instance.
@ Chip
Lol debt servicing. Way to go too far.
My point was that if you use 99$s from one source, and claim you rapaid it based on the 1$ source, no one would take you seriously.
That's what I'm saying here.
@ Jay I'm not objecting to the cut.
Dose of Sanity said...
If I remember correctly, its in the form of higher deductibles and copays
Well, that is a pretty big "if" isn't it?
PS, if your insurance premium decreases (more than covering any co-pay increase), what then?
Benefit cut!
Well, that is a pretty big "if" isn't it?
PS, if your insurance premium decreases (more than covering any co-pay increase), what then?
Benefit cut!
That's why I said if, entirely my memory on this one.
Depends on how often you visit the doctor with the co-pay I guess.
Dose of Sanity said...
My point was that if you use 99$s from one source, and claim you rapaid it based on the 1$ source, no one would take you seriously.
That's what I'm saying here.
Which still makes zero sense since nobody is making any such or similar claim.
Analogy!
Which still makes zero sense since nobody is making any such or similar claim.
Other than Scott Walker in the commercial that this post is about, that is.
@Dose--Now you're simply incomprehensible.
Are you claiming that the public employees' new payments toward the cost of their benefits are trivial?
If that's so, then what have they all been howling about?
Wait, I remember now--purplepenquin's lunch breaks.
Dose of Sanity said...
That's why I said if, entirely my memory on this one.
Oh, but you were so sure earlier.
It is almost as if your claims are silly slogans or something.
PS: The average monthly premium for single-employee coverage was $734 for schools with WEA Trust, and $614 for schools that contracted with other companies.
@ Chip
As a percentage of the budget cuts, yes. (In fact, it works out to almost no difference this year)
As a percentage to the public employees, not trivial.
For the record, I have never been against the public employees paying more. [they in fact, agreed to this before Walker came into office, but who needs facts]
@ Jay I'm sure the benefits decreased, just not what form.
Three out of four districts reported having fewer staff positions this year than last year. Two-thirds reported fewer teacher positions. A quarter of districts with increasing enrollment reduced staff.
But I saved OVER $14 on my property taxes!!
Appleton district - prior to Walker budget passing was offered a 2% discount to stay with WEA Trust.
Post Walker budget: WEA Trust changed its bid to an 11 pecent reduction.
Gee, how can WEA do that when they are the noble and benevolent union people? Were they price gouging!??!
Walker is a reichwing thug that we unions will oust very soon.
But I saved OVER $14 on my property taxes!!
But no noticeable negative effects on the children.
At least, that's what our crystal ball says.
Dose of Sanity said...
@ Jay I'm sure the benefits decreased, just not what form.
Hysterical.
Yes, you're sure despite the fact there is no evidence of this.
@ Jay
Do you even read my posts? Re-read the first response to this I made. That I have the article saved on my home computer.
garage mahal said...
Three out of four districts reported having fewer staff positions this year than last year. Two-thirds reported fewer teacher positions. A quarter of districts with increasing enrollment reduced staff.
I'd love for you to articulate, with facts, how this is all a bad outcome.
Though I won't hold my breath.
Dose of Sanity said...
@ Jay
Do you even read my posts? Re-read the first response to this I made. That I have the article saved on my home computer.
Hilarious.
I guess google went away in the mean time. Or is google only on your home computer too?
"But I saved OVER $14 on my property taxes!!"
Considering that my property taxes had routinely increased around $200-$250 every year, that $14 cut is significant. One year's $250 hike is $2500 over the course of ten years....then you add in the next year's $250 hike carried over nine years.....money adds up fast over the course of a decade.
I'd love for you to articulate, with facts, how this is all a bad outcome.
Though I won't hold my breath.
The number of academic studies on the effect of class size is staggering. You should read a few.
it appears that the single-source in question was forced to drop it's rates in order to be competitive.
And lower its benefits. Silly cause and effect.
Welcome to National Health Care.
Hilarious.
I guess google went away in the mean time. Or is google only on your home computer too?
I tried, too many blog posts for and against the cuts with my search terms. I don't want to search through the 100s of pages of responses. Forgive me.
The number of academic studies on the effect of class size is staggering. You should read a few.
Apparently, the city of New York, where they have teachers go to work and play cards all day instead of, you know, teach, has never read any of these studies.
Apparently, the city of New York, where they have teachers go to work and play cards all day instead of, you know, teach, has never read any of these studies.
How does this relate at all to what we are talking about?
Forgive me.
That alone should remove the tinfoil hats from the "Dose is Jeremy!" crowd.
My husband got a 5% reduction in his health premium because we didn't use as much as the plan allowed.
What a concept, don't go to the dr for every little thing.
Dose of Sanity said...
The number of academic studies on the effect of class size is staggering.
Yet another thing you're sure of!
Is that on your home computer?
How does this relate at all to what we are talking about?
If they're playing cards in a small room somewhere, they're not in front of students.
That alone should remove the tinfoil hats from the "Dose is Jeremy!" crowd.
Whose jeremy? And who said that?
Yet another thing you're sure of!
Is that on your home computer?
No, it's on Google. :-p
If they're playing cards in a small room somewhere, they're not in front of students.
Oh totally agree that them not teaching is atrocious, but how does that relate to our discussion?
Dose of Sanity said...
You should read a few.
Ok, but Prof. Aaron M. Pallas of Teachers College at Columbia University says no academic study has explored the effects of doubling the size of a public school classroom.
Dose of Sanity said...
Oh totally agree that them not teaching is atrocious, but how does that relate to our discussion?
Because you brought up class size.
@ Dose.
You are right, I missed the paragraph about cutting the State Aid because I was concentrating on the issue of a reduction in increase as being a 'cut'.
The fiscal side of the education connundrum is complicated. The 'cuts' in one area are compensated by the improvements and cost savings in the health insurance coverage.
The end result may be a balance between cuts and savings.
People are getting all emotional about it and are distorting the figures and the end results are not yet known.
I've been away. Tell me, is there a voter in Wisconsin who has no affiliation with a public sector job or a public sector labor union who would favor this recall on the merits? It seems like a naked power grab by a constituency that simply wants to maintain its accustomed grip on the tax-funded cookie jar. But why would anyone who isn't getting those cookies favor the recall?
Dose of Sanity said...
I tried, too many blog posts for and against the cuts with my search terms. I don't want to search through the 100s of pages of responses. Forgive me
In other words, there is no evidence for your assertion (a comment on a blog post is not evidence) anywhere but this lone article conveniently located on your home computer.
Gee, I'm stunned by this development.
Dose of Sanity said...
I tried, too many blog posts for and against the cuts with my search terms. I don't want to search through the 100s of pages of responses. Forgive me
And to be clear, you are asserting that any school districted that moved away from WEA Trust, has put teachers in an isurance plan that has higher deductables and co-pays than WEA Trust.
If your assertion is true it should take like 20 seconds to find the proof.
Is there something wrong with the standard $99? Has there been a shift to writing 99$ that nobody told me about?
I've been away. Tell me, is there a voter in Wisconsin who has no affiliation with a public sector job or a public sector labor union who would favor this recall on the merits? It seems like a naked power grab by a constituency that simply wants to maintain its accustomed grip on the tax-funded cookie jar. But why would anyone who isn't getting those cookies favor the recall?
*raises hand*
Shameless self-promote on my reasons.
To clarify, the revenue cap results in a 490 million cut (above and beyond the 800 bill cut). The additional 490 is calculatd as a decrease in expected funds from local tax, rather than a cut from state funding. See the difference?
To clarify.
A decrease in the rate of increase is not a cut.
If I plan to raise the price of one of my products....pumps, since this is one of our items, by 25% next year....
Then decide that I should only increase by 15%. This is NOT a cut.
Pump price 2011= $1000
25% increase
Pump price 2012 = $1250
decrease the increase to 15%
Pump price 2012 =$1150
I have INCREASE my pump prices to $1150 even though I have decreased the amount that I wanted to increase by 10%......it is still MORE.
Clear?
Is there something wrong with the standard $99? Has there been a shift to writing 99$ that nobody told me about?
Your way is the correct way. One of my quirks, I guess. I think it comes from me "saying it aloud" as I type. Sorry! I know it's awkward to read.
Has there been a shift to writing 99$ that nobody told me about?
Don't make fun of dyslexia.
I guess you can't multi task. Read and watch at the same time. Or did you watch the video with your eyes closed?
There are stats of companies that are adding or going to add jobs, showing on the background while he is talking.
I saw those. I didn't mention them, because ...
One has the number 400. Those headlines don't really sell the big jobs concept.
if he was anywhere close to the job #'s, he would have said it ... outright.
@ DBQ
Certainly, it's definitely playing the words/numbers.
You could rephrase it like this:
We expect $10,000 in income this year to pay our budget.
We only earned $5,000.
See how that seems like a cut? It's more money than you had before, but its still less than you expected.
(You are right to complain about phrasing it like a straight cut though)
@Dose--According to the #'s I've found, state employees' share of the cost of their benefits shaved about $30 million off the $137 million deficit.
I think Walker has every right to claim that as a significant part of his deficit-elimination strategy.
30/137 >> 1/99
wv coxychor: An attitude that's the first sign of burnout among porn actresses.
@ Chip
You are right, it's not 1%.
Where did you find those numbers though? I thought it was more than 137 mil?
We expect $10,000 in income this year to pay our budget.
We only earned $5,000.
See how that seems like a cut?
Um...
Having some trouble with levels vs. changes in levels today?
We expect $10,000 in income this year to pay our budget.
We only earned $5,000.
See how that seems like a cut? It's more money than you had before, but its still less than you expected.
How much more muddled can you make this?
Earned and Cut are two completely different things. If you are basing your following year's budget on performance, or "earned", then you get what you get. If your budget, on the other hand, is based on what the bureaucracy above you has ladled out, then it is indeed a cut.
Earned is something you achieve. Cut is something someone does to you.
Do you not see the difference? The only way your wording works if if you were previously promised $10k based on a certain set of merits which you and your sector achieved. If the 'crats above decide after the fact that you're only getting $5k, then, yes, you would have had your earnings cut.
$137 mil was the projected 2011 deficit. The projected two-year deficit was much larger, which I suppose is the reason for the continued cuts from previously planned levels of spending.
You could rephrase it like this:
We expect $10,000 in income this year to pay our budget.
We only earned $5,000.
See how that seems like a cut? It's more money than you had before, but its still less than you expected.
It also shows that your budget is overly optimistic and perhaps should be adjusted for reality.
If you budget for 10K and only have income of 5K, I suggest you look at the budget and see where you can cut an additional 5K.....or re-examine your business model, because something is seriously effed up
:-D
I've been away. Tell me, is there a voter in Wisconsin who has no affiliation with a public sector job or a public sector labor union who would favor this recall on the merits?
I signed because Walker didn't even have the sense to leave craft beer alone. Deb Carey is President, Founder and Owner of New Glarus Brewing Company:
DC: Thanks, still fighting. Funny thing now that the rules are being inacted we see how brewers got worked over in the budget. Bull Falls, along with many other small brewers, just lost it's Wholesaler License. Furthermore, Horny Goat and Esser's, among others are technically shut down, but have been granted a grace period to continue business, while they search for a fix. Great way to encourage business investment. We are expanding our Giftshop and Visitor Courtyard but will not be allowed to serve Wisconsin wine or have a pub with drinks and champagne because we weren't doing so before this summer. No new brewers will be able to either.
@ Chip - Ya, I see where the numbers come from - either way, it's still low.
@Scott How much more muddled can you make this?
Earned and Cut are two completely different things. If you are basing your following year's budget on performance, or "earned", then you get what you get. If your budget, on the other hand, is based on what the bureaucracy above you has ladled out, then it is indeed a cut.
You are correct, however, it becomes muddled because that bureaucracy has CAPPED their maximum 'income' via taxes. (By "capping" tax rate below what many districts were already using)
It's messy and muddled and I'm inclined to agree with you guys on this. I was just explaining how it could be viewed as a cut as well.
By "capping" tax rate below what many districts were already using
Be that as it may, it honestly seems that the only way left to kill the beast is to starve it. Starvation is never pretty, no matter what the context.
This discussion reminded me how much I abhorr budgets. Every single one is full of such partisan bullshit (dems and repubs) it makes educated discussion about the state/countries future that much more difficult.
wv: mophos: Those assholes who draft the budget. (phonetic)
Be that as it may, it honestly seems that the only way left to kill the beast is to starve it. Starvation is never pretty, no matter what the context.
The starve the beast strategy, at least on the federal level, has long resulted in no decrease in spending while increasing debt. Logically, it makes sense, but in practice it has almost never worked.
Every single one is full of such partisan bullshit (dems and repubs) it makes educated discussion about the state/countries future that much more difficult.
Proving, yet again, how prophetic Maynard J and the boys in Tool are.
"The only way to fix it is to flush it all away."
Of course, they were talking about L.A., but the root causes are similar.
Scott M said...
How much more muddled can you make this?
Muddling has been the only point of DOS's comments.
Muddling has been the only point of DOS's comments.
Not true. It was a side-effect of a good faith argument.
Dose of Sanity, you should change your name to Dose of Ambien.
Dose of Sanity said...
We expect $10,000 in income this year to pay our budget.
We only earned $5,000.
See how that seems like a cut?
Um, no.
But it is quite clear you've never worked in the private sector.
But it is quite clear you've never worked in the private sector.
I've never worked in the public sector.
@ Joe
Probably - I do throw some knock-out punches. (Oh, you mean I'm boring? I guess that too...)
@ Jay
Oops, I just lied! I worked as an RA at a UW school and as a research assistant (for one semester) at a public school in a different state.
Guess those count. :)
Dose of Sanity said...
I've never worked in the public sector.
Which of course doesn't mean you've worked in the private sector.
Which of course doesn't mean you've worked in the private sector.
True, but I have. Anyway, it's a moot point. Speaking of muddling...
Probably - I do throw some knock-out punches.
Consider me another vanquished opponent, then. No mas, no mas.
I was just explaining how it could be viewed as a cut as well.
Lots of things can be viewed as cuts when you don't understand finance, budgeting, business practices, insurance, benefits and many other things.
I don't know what you do for a living, but as pointed out, it is obvious that you don't work in the private sector where those things (budgets, income, expenses) are base on hard realities.
Dose of Sanity said...
Anyway, it's a moot point.
Actually, it isn't.
But of course you can't understand why.
It was a side-effect of a good faith argument.
I think it's a direct effect of poor math instruction in public schools.
Remember:
1 Democrat + basic math ability = 1 Republican
except for garage mahal, to whom the only thing that really matters is beer.
Which makes him Althouse's second-most coherent liberal.
Dust Bunny Queen said...
I don't know what you do for a living, but as pointed out, it is obvious that you don't work in the private sector where those things (budgets, income, expenses) are base on hard realities.
No, no, no DBQ, you don't understand it is a moot point!!!
@ Dose.
Worked as a business owner or someone with responsibilities for the running of the business?
We didn't mean as a shipping clerk or burger flipper.
Every single one is full of such partisan bullshit (dems and repubs) it makes educated discussion about the state/countries future that much more difficult.
But garage is utterly convinced that the Democrats = white hats and Republicans = black hats. His world is so utterly binary.
I wonder how badly your beliefs would be rocked if you knew me and my background.
Quite a bit I'd guess, if you assume I don't understand finance.
@ DBQ - As an owner? No. With responsibilities, yes.
I'm a student now, but I didn't go straight from undergrad to grad school.
Dose, sorry if I'm being rude, but mainly my objection lies with your sloppiness with any kind of logic.
projection minus actual NEVER EVER EQUALS A CUT! It's called a piss-poor, overly optimistic forecast, unless influenced by Act of God.
And the $99 analogy was just DOA. Give it last rites sooner, then mercifully bury it.
if you assume I don't understand finance.
So far, you've posted nothing that corrects that assumption.
Dose of Sanity said...
if you assume I don't understand finance.
Mind you, from the author of:
If I owed someone 100$, found a 1$ bill on the street, and then paid the 100$ and said I did it because I found a 1$ dollar bill...well, you would think me an idiot.
And:
We expect $10,000 in income this year to pay our budget.
We only earned $5,000.
See how that seems like a cut?
It is beyond dispute you don't know anything about finance.
I wonder how badly your beliefs would be rocked if you knew me and my background.
Quite a bit I'd guess, if you assume I don't understand finance.
Forget about Jeremy.
Dose of Sanity = Tim Geithner
All you anti-Walkerites commenting here: Look critically at the way you've expressed yourself. Can you see how ugly you seem?
They must have been so nasty that you deleted 'em, 'cause the ugliest comments (like the reference to Hitler) that are still visible are from the ProWalker crowd.
@ Alex
That reminds me of that nerdy joke...
There are only 10 types of people in the world...
They must have been so nasty that you deleted 'em
Not necessarily. Ugly is subjective. Take the color purple, for instance...
@ Chip
I resent that! I pay my taxes!
Dose of Sanity said...
I'm a student now, but I didn't go straight from undergrad to grad school.
Wow.
So worldly.
So knowledgeable.
You're the Obama of finance, dude.
@ Jay
Less flames, more discussion. :/
Hey, I'm curious now as that was the second reference. Where did this Dose = Jeremy thing come from? Can you search comments on blogger?
It was mentioned in the epic comment thread about comment threads a couple weeks ago.
except for garage mahal, to whom the only thing that really matters is beer.
Our school district is looking at an almost unworkable 2 million shortfall next year from Walker's education cuts. Lots of reasons to recall this douchebag, really.
Wait, I remember now--purplepenquin's lunch breaks.
Speaking of ugly comments, there is one now...
The fact that you and (and so many others) attempt to mock all safety conditions regarding rigging, high-voltage equipment, and other issues as nothing more than "lunch breaks" tells me that you are fully aware that my concerns are valid, but you're too deeply encamped in your political party in order to honestly address the issues raised.
Less flames, more discussion. :/
Awww. You're no fun :-(
Now I'm off to invoice the jobs my husband did over the weekend, go the bank, post office, make banking deposits, pick up my new pots and pans that I ordered from Amazon (yay!) and
gaaaack....set up my new bookkeeping software for 2012 (open a new company file), close out the books on the old program, transfer the old info to the new program (if possible....stupid software companies won't talk to each other) and pay our quarterly payroll taxes.
Bye now.
...the ugliest comments ... are from the ProWalker crowd.
Consider the arc of a typical Althouse thread on Wisconsin state finances:
Liberal: Scott Walker is killing poor people, refusing to educate our children, and endangering the lives of...um, me and a couple of my coworkers. He must be recalled!
Conservative: Your facts are completely wrong. Here's why...
Lib: No, no, no, you don't understand. Up is really down, more is really less, and teachers' salaries = kids' education.
Con: You're not making any sense at all.
Lib: You're missing my point.
Con: You have no point.
Lib: Yes, I do!
Con: If you think that, then you must be an idiot.
Lib: H8r!!
Our school district is looking at an almost unworkable 2 million shortfall next year from Walker's education cuts. Lots of reasons to recall this douchebag, really.
So says the douchebag. What do you think money grows on trees g-douche?
Dose of Sanity = Tim Geithner
Hey, maybe Krugman will be interviewing for summer interns soon?
@ DBQ - what programs? Most of those programs can export/import in excel.
Our school district is looking at an almost unworkable 2 million shortfall next year from Walker's education cuts. Lots of reasons to recall this douchebag, really.
When our school district was facing almost unworkable cuts, the school board set up a fund to which families could donate, to help close the gap. They raised quite a bit of money.
@penquin--You've been invited time and again to specify a single instance in which the safety conditions you work under have worsened since the Walker budget plan was enacted. Your response to that has been to accuse people of stalking you. And it was you who first raised the laughable issue of lunch breaks.
On the basis of nothing but your idiosyncratic conjectures about what might conceivably happen, you insist on putting your state through the expense and bother of a recall election rather than waiting for the next election cycle.
That's a degree of selfishness worthy of an Objectivist.
Which school district is it?
garage mahal said...
Our school district is looking at an almost unworkable 2 million shortfall next year from Walker's education cuts. Lots of reasons to recall this douchebag, really.
Hilarious.
So having a different Gov makes the money coming from the state magically re-appear!
Presto!
@Seeing Red
Monona Grove.
You've been invited time and again to specify a single instance in which the safety conditions you work under have worsened since the Walker budget plan was enacted
Oh. I'm sorry, but I thought it was well-known that safety issues and workplace conditions can no longer be part of a contract with a city/county/state.
What leads you to beleive that making these safety issues to be only suggestions rather than contractually enforced won't result in a less safe work environment?
Why have safety regulations/rules at all, if rules/regulations don't have any effect in regards to safety?
Looking back at that video, it seems that they aren't allowing any more comments over there....
...which is too bad, 'cause this is what I wanted to say:
"Was banning collective bargaining really the only way he could save $$$? 'cause by making it illegal for workers to have safety issues and workplace conditions in contracts with a city/county/state, Gov. Walker and the WI-GOP has made it more likely that I or one of my co-workers will be hurt and/or killed while on the job.
That is why I support a recall election against the Gov. It truly is a matter of life or death for some of us."
OSHA is enough.
Dose o' S.:
I knew Jeremy.
I suffered through Jeremy's posts.
Trust me, son, you're no Jeremy.
OSHA is enough
That is kinda like saying "The cops are enough, we don't need concealed carry for citizens."
While it does a decent job of protecting the regular worker, those of us who work in some of the more "exotic" (for lack of a better word) trades need more specialized/focused safety issues and workplace conditions.
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