According to the NYT blog The Caucus:
1. Biden.
The idea is that Biden's too old to run in 2016, and that will make 2016 an easier year.
2. The economy.
It might improve.
3. Money. Mr. Obama is expected in some quarters to raise $1 billion for his re-election campaign, and he has no serious primary opposition, which means he will be free to aim that firepower at his Republican adversaries....
4. The Tea Party. The emergence of the Tea Party movement as a force inside the Republican Party requires potential presidential candidates to pick sides in an intraparty philosophical struggle....
5. The media glare. Candidates for president have always had to contend with scrutiny from the press. But the intense, Internet-driven political environment in 2011, when everyone has a camera phone and every offhand comment can be recorded, is enough to scare away even the most hearty of politicians....
Boo!
Posts
78 comments:
I spend effort trying to get my unacceptable opinions out, and these guys are going out of their way to avoid scrutiny.
Biden.
Ha.
Ha ha.
MWAHAHAHAHA!(Snort!)
Is this Presidential election process really much different than past ones.
It feels fairly typical to me.
So there aren't any GOOD reasons not to run.
Biden? Hahahahahahahahaha.
Palin with a couple weeks preparation made his 3+ decades of political experience look... well... Bidenesque.
5 Reasons why Democrats don't want Obama to run in 2012:
1) 27 million angry un/underemployed voters
2) $5/gal gas
3) Starts wars
4) Wall Street's sweetheart
5) It's the economy stupid
Better run run run run run run run awaaaaaayyyy.
(previous Althouse Psycho Killer reference turns out to be completely unrelated http://althouse.blogspot.com/2005/12/youre-talking-lot-but-youre-not-saying.html)
Hey! And, the big one! They don't stand a chance!
As to "inside strategy" ... that's something Karl Rove is doing. As he tries to get Jeb into the "big slot."
While IT. IS. OVER. FOR. THEM.
All of them!
There will be a new sheriff in town.
It's not that Americans don't want to vote! It's that the democraps will have to be the party that seeks to rebuild itself. Or it will become a ghetto funeral pyre.
Pelosi? You think she helped the democraps?
How will voters choose?
It's a pretty good guess the republicans will do well in 2012. If you want to consider Congress.
The over-tanned blue-eyed man (Boehner). And, the chinless wonder in the senate. Will NOT be called upon to lend a hand. Or to show up at rallies.
Chris Cristie, however, will have a fully booked dance card!
What will January 2013's inauguration look like? My guess is that Obama will be known, by then, by another name. Barry Dunham? He is not going to "pick" Soetoro, because his mom divorced that guy. And, that guy was never, ever, his dad!
Q-Daffy will still probably be in charge in Libya. But I'm putting no money at all on Assad. Why? Because if you kill your own citizens there's a heavy price to pay.
Isn't Q-Daffy killing his own citizens? NO! He's killing the crap that NATO is sending in.
And, Trump probably already has a "game plan."
The republicans, however, will never become favorites. They don't know how to attract voters. This has been their problem since at least Teddy Roosevelt lit a match back in 1908.
Warren Harding, by the way, was selected by GOP insiders because he was extremely handsome. Had a wonderful baritone. And, no brains at all. Alas, after he won, when he got into the White House ... he didn't want to take advice from anyone else.
Jimmy Carter was the same.
And, Obama? By the time history gets around to recording this, his birth identity will be known.
The media won't get any better, ahead, than PRAVDA. DC, however, won't become the Kremlin. Unless the bamster can figure out a way to keep the door locked on inauguration day.
Everyone's welcome to play "let's guess t'marra."
Reminds me of the run-up to the 1992 election. Bush was so popular in the immediate aftermath of the Gulf War that a lot of big Democratic names shied away, thinking "we'll run in 1996 against Quayle instead". Boy did THEY feel silly a few years later.
Presidential campaigns are always a gamble. Any candidate waiting for the perfect scenario is going to wait a looooong time.
This is FUD! Obama is awesome, and no one wants to run against him.
My sense is......The yaller dog democrats have left the building.
As if the NY Times understands Republicans.
"This is FUD!"
No, this is Democrat Party wish-casting and wet dreaming.
They actually want to believe that no Republican will step up to challenge Barack Obama in 2012. None. That the party will not nominate anyone and Obama will not face a challenger.
Their next line (wait for it): "Heck, we shouldn't even have an election ... it would just be a waste of tax dollars in these trying times of trillion dollar deficits."
Not surprising that the NYT ignores that the way that Obama raised so much money was to 1) accept massive bribes by stakeholders, who mostly got paid off later (and he won't be able to do so this time around), and 2) accepting money from all sorts of people all around the world by turning off credit card verification.
Biden should be a plus for any Republican running this time - his comments during the last election made Palin look like a Mensa member, and if anything, he has gone downhill since then.
Sure, the economy might improve a little bit between now and then. But does anyone truly believe that Obama will be able to get very many people to say that they are better off then, than 4 years before when he ran for his first term?
If anything, we are likely to have Carter type stagflation. We are starting to see significant indicia of inflation taking off, which shouldn't surprise anyone after QE2 and printing so much money (which, BTW, Palin called accurately last fall).
As to picking sides - anyone who picks the anti-Tea Party side is going to get creamed, either in the primaries, or in the general election. Unless things change an awful lot in the next year and a half, pandering to the TP is going to be necessary for any successful GOP candidate.
Media Glare - yes, the MSM will be in the tank for Obama again. So, what is new? They will be in the same tank with whichever Democrat gets the nomination in 2016.
The article just makes even more clear why the NYT is becoming increasingly insular and irrelevant.
These reasons are all bullshit. The Times is making this up.
Biden has a good chance of being dropped as VP, just on the historical averages. That plus he's Biden.
The Democratic "favorites" bailed in 1992 against Bush 41 because he was "unbeatable." Thus Bill Clinton.
Plus who wants a President who is afraid to run because the economy might improve.
These wimp reasons come from the wimp minds of NYT.
6. Thwarting the progressive agenda and promoting fiscal responsibility can also be accomplished by strengthening the GOP and or Tea Party majorities in both Houses.
A strong Republican presidental contender might cause some wishy-washy "I know what's best for the country" voters to support Democrats for Congress and Senate as a counterbalance.
The 2012 election is all about purse strings. And maybe weakening POTUS domestically.
" ... accepting money from all sorts of people all around the world by turning off credit card verification."
And he's going to do this again, since this sort of money laundering is technically legal and now Republicans are going to launder their donations this way too.
Got a lot of housecleaning to do, America.
1. Wasn't Reagan too old to run? And McCain? Only the Left seems to take seriously the notion that someone is too old to run for President. That's it in the criticism department: too old or too stupid.
2. Ha. Hahaha! HAHAHAH!!!!Op;fk
,ea[df,erf[,fe
Not even the Democrats think the economy will improve by 2012. Even BLS funny-numbers won't mask the poor state of the economy. Only fools think the unemployment rate is really 8.8%.
3. This one is plausible. Obama might be able to buy himself another election, assuming small-sum Republican donations don't materialize and assuming Obama hasn't pissed off his money-givers by now. He's already back on the circuit whoring himself out for money.
4. It's always the Tea Party for the Left. An eternal specter haunting the GOP and all it does since its creation...two years ago.
5. "Candidates for president have always had to contend with scrutiny from the press" unless your name is Obama. Then you can skate through primaries, elections, and victories without scrutiny.
The Tea-Party will be the defining influence in the next election as more and more people, daily, agree with it's political direction.
Increasingly it looks like the liberals have their best guy at the wrong place at the wrong time.
BIDEN? Slow Joe is the main reason I pray for Barry to finish his term in great health. I'm thankful for having the best Secret Service possible for the same reason.
The New York Times has lost what credibility it ever had.
1. So there will be a new person, an unknown. Better the devil you know than the devil you don't.
2. The same could be said four years from now (and no one expects the economy to improve by THIS election).
3. The President is already severely overexposed; more money at this point is toxic to him.
4. If Obama stays, the Tea Party will only become fiercer.
5. Does the NYT believe the media glare will be LESS in 4 years time? Seriously? Are we going to regress technologically?
Ah ha. The NYT has fingered Tea Party thinkers with digital cameras as stopping the American political process. Now who could that be referring to coming right after the Great Wisconsin Unions Last Stand Demonstrations of 2011 ? At this rate Ann and Meade will be satirized on Saturday night this weekend.
This is the NYT attempt to make sure no GOP with credibility runs. I still don't understand why I have to show my birth-certificate for any new defense project. Should I just run for office? Then if I am win, as expected, no one can touch me. Since this is true, then there is a problem. Right?
Reporters are just trying to push GOPers into the ring. They love covering campaigns and campaigns bring in money to media outlets.
The longer Republican candidates can put it off, the better. I don't think Americans love the constant election cycle we've gotten into. It does us no good.
Candidates for president have always had to contend with scrutiny from the press. But the intense ....
Not all candidates.
It doesn't matter who the Repubs run, the mediaswine will eviscerate him/her and Oblahblah will survive.
However, the Republican candidate should savage him at every opportunity about his lies and his bad policy.
Repubs need to hold the House and storm the Senate. Once in control of the Congress, they should bombard Oblahblah with responsible legislation that his ideology will force him to veto.
Unfortunately, Karl Rove notwithstanding, they aren't very good at politics and they waste lots of money on direct mailing.
"Media Glare - yes, the MSM will be in the tank for Obama again. So, what is new?"
I happen to think that the media are - right now - Barack Obama's worst enemies.
They're making him look like an idiot by being so defending of every dumb-ass mistake the guy makes.
And this birth certificate thing - the media are just killing Obama on this trying to protect him.
Matthews is just making him look really bad for not just going ahead and releasing the damn birth certificate already.
Obama has a lot of cheerleaders in the media, but they're horrible at it. So it's actually costing him votes, I think.
America's Politiho - we make you show your papers because you are a danged foreigner - a Nepalese - I mean - is that even a real thing? You are illiterate, that's true, but you are also a stupid liberal hack.
Now get back onto your talking points - you have gone way off the script - your employers are going to drop you faster than your "girlfriend" did. Plus, you make absolutely no sense when you are not following what your bosses tell you to say.
"However, the Republican candidate should savage him at every opportunity about his lies and his bad policy."
Nah.
The Republican should say this at every campaign stop:
"Look, America. Barack Obama is a nice guy who means well, but he's proven to just not be cut out for this job. We gave him a chance and that was the right thing to do.
Now we have to roll up our sleeves and get back to doing what America does best and that's creating jobs and putting Americans back to work.
It's going to be better tomorrow ... you just wait and see."
Kill Barack Obama with kindness, kiss babies, shake hands and that's all the Republican has to do to win the election in 2012.
"However, the Republican candidate should savage him at every opportunity about his lies and his bad policy."
Look, they want a fight. Barack Obama needs an enemy. The media wants a fight. If there's a fight, then there has to be a winner and if there's a fight, they can say Obama won the fight and that the Republican lost the fight and "you don't really want to vote for a LOSER, do ya?"
They're itching to say that shit.
We shouldn't be stupid enough to fall into that trap.
Republican: "Barack Obama is a nice guy who means well, but he's just not getting the job done and he's a little inexperienced. But we can do better America, and tomorrow will be a better day, you just wait and see. God Bless you, thank you and God Bless the United States of America (raging cheers)"
Be a fucking landslide.
Fifty state victory.
Ut, you forgot to add the timeless question: Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago?
6. Paraprasing neidermeyer in Animal House, Reps are all worthless and weak. Now drop and give me twenty!
Re: mama grizzly, bachmann, barbour, bolton, cain et al ~ "Christ, seven years of college, down the drain."
>
As always, you can't beat an incumbent president w/an incoherent, nonsensical, laughable nothing.
turdblossom's "genius" was registering 300/400k more Rep voters in OH/FL between 2001 and Nov. 2004 ie his GOTV was unmatched until Obama surpassed it in 2008.
>
mittens would come closest to passing the C-in-C test, but he's got more baggage than Southwest Airlines.
Conservatives, don't give up hope ie anything is possible as a day can be an eternity in politics.
Keep hope alive! :-P
"Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago?"
I'd be changing that up by saying: "Gas was $2.25 four years ago. What are you paying today? After four years of an Obama oil drilling moratorium in the Gulf and the closing of ANWR?"
The media wants and needs a fight (it's how they sell advertising and make their money). They NEED to declare Obama the winner of all 3 debates. And they will.
So what's say we don't give them a fight.
Run a few "It's Going to be Morning In America" ads and always speak well of Barack Obama. Debate him by agreeing with him but just pointing out that while you agree with him on many issues, he's just not the right guy for the job.
Otherwise, if you pick a fight, or challenge him or give him an opportunity you're just going to look like a racist hick. And they're going to call you a racist hick and you'll spend the rest of the campaign backpedalling.
Americans WANT to fire this fucking guy. We need to just sit back and let America do the job it wants to do.
Look, a USA Today poll shows that only 38% of Americans even believe Barack Obama was BORN in the United States.
Americans WANT to fire this fucking guy.
We should let them.
So there's room for someone with Tea Party cred and new media savvy, who can prune things in a way that promotes growth.
Just sayin'.
"Look, a USA Today poll shows that only 38% of Americans even believe Barack Obama was BORN in the United States."
I retract my previous prediction.
I now believe it could be a 57-state victory.
"So there's room for someone with Tea Party cred and new media savvy, who can prune things in a way that promotes growth."
So long as he's not 5-2 and named Mitch Daniels (D-Ohio).
Yes.
If he or Romney get the nod, I'm voting for Barack Obama.
We really want the New York Times' opinion of Republicans? How sad.
All cowardly reasons. Any Republican not running for those reasons doesn't deserve the office. Obama wasn't afraid to run when the odds were against him.
"We really want the New York Times' opinion of Republicans? How sad."
Nah, Althouse is just giving Bill Keller a handie so they'll feature her Bloggingheads again.
Politics makes for strange bedfellows.
Peter Hoh said: So there's room for someone with Tea Party cred and new media savvy, who can prune things in a way that promotes growth.
You mean someone selflessly devoted to the Republic for which it stands?
A citizen volunteer perhaps?
Someone like Laurencicus Meadeus Cincinnatus?
They must be joking.
Pinch must be off his meds again.
Look at that list and any real Republican would be aching to run.
1 Speaks for itself
2 And piggies might fly
3 Kloppenburg
4 Motivated more than Little Zero's base
5 Cuts both ways. Brietbart, O'Keefe, Giles, and Company.
All cowardly reasons. ~ Obama wasn't afraid to run when the odds were against him.
Indeed, Nov. 2007 he was behind Hillary by (30) pts. nationally and then Jan. 2008, he won the Iowa Caucaus by (8) pts. w/Hillary coming in 3rd and HRC was totally discombobulated.
Nothing ventured, nothing gained.
As my sister says re: the lottery ~ you have to be in it to win it ...
This nation cannot afford Obama anymore. So, someone must step up --now.
Kill Barack Obama with kindness, kiss babies, shake hands and that's all the Republican has to do to win the election in 2012.
Right. Like I said, Republicans aren't very good at politics.
shilho said: Indeed, Nov. 2007 he was behind Hillary by (30) pts. nationally and then Jan. 2008, he won the Iowa Caucaus by (8) pts. w/Hillary coming in 3rd and HRC was totally discombobulated.
I remember that change-up. It happened around the time he gave her the finger on stage and people cheered. She lost it because all civility went out the window that night.
I agree with the woman who called into Rush today and inspired his quote in the post above this one.
We need a real conservative candidate now. Not next election. Now. We are headed into fiscal crisis. Possible candidates who can see that, who are capable of leading the way out of it, and who can explain fiscal conservatism to the public need to take action. Hanging back because it might be easier some other election cycle is not in the best interest of the country.
Fate likes to play a wild card every now and then.
My dad was a smoker. He died of a sudden heart attack.
Are you absolutely sure the Republicans will be running against Obama in 2012?
And if the unspeakable were to happen, could you imagine Joe Biden, the man with an ego the size of the Goodyear Blimp, voluntarily stepping down in favor of Hillary for the next term?
(But if you're some idiot politician who's married and screwing somebody on the side, please don't bother us by running. You will either be exposed before the election and lose or be exposed after the election and derail fiscal reform.)
@shiloh is there anyone outside of a jail cell or an insane asylum that could lose to Obama?
If Bozo were the republican candidate and the election were next week do you think Obama has a chance?
Ny prediction for 2012:
a) Gas will definatly go to $5 for this summer and down to maybe $4 till 2012.
b) The economy will go into recession.
c) Libya will drag on (like the hostage crisis did for Carter.) Syria will kill more and more till it all calms down (and Obama will issue his 'stern' warnings.)
d) Recession
e) Recession
f) dang near riots over the recession.
g) China will go almost bankrupt.
And yes Obama will become a one term president (but the left will say American is RACIST!!!)
And the Republicans will take the senate by a good margin and keep the house. Yes the whole government will flip to Republian.
Now ain't that a gas..
I am not buying any of those reasons. I think they look at what the media did in the last election as well as how they continued to savage Palin long after the election and wisely decide that the game is fixed.
It goes without saying that anyone who would run for president is unfit to hold the position since they either have to be crazy or they have to covet the power too much.
BTW, none of this matters. Obama is toast. I have to believe this is the case because the only alternative would be that a huge number of my countrymen have a death wish and are willing to take the rest of us down with them.
It happened around the time he gave her the finger on stage and people cheered.
Really? Was this caught on tape?
Garage: "Really? Was this caught on tape?"
Yes, Garage, it was.
You can watch Barack Obama give the "fuck you" finger to Hillary Clinton, totally disrespecting a fellow Democrat. And then listen to the cheers as the crowd cheered him on.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DygBj4Zw6No
I am not buying any of those reasons. I think they look at what the media did in the last election as well as how they continued to savage Palin long after the election and wisely decide that the game is fixed.
I think that's exactly right.
In this next video, you can watch as Barack Obama gives the "fuck you" finger to John McCain right after saying McCain fought for his country honorably.
http://youtu.be/Pc8Wc1CN7sY
This is your president, Garage. A no-class fucking douchebag.
What a bunch of nonsense!
The NYT blog is trying to distract readers from their guy's sagging poll numbers by reaffirming the inevitability of his reelection.
Two of the supposed half-dozen who are sitting it out—Christie & Rubio—do not have the experience to be president; Christie has said as much. Why aren't they being applauded for the kind of honest self-appraisal that Obama apparently was incapable of in 07 & 08?
@shiloh is there anyone outside of a jail cell or an insane asylum that could lose to Obama?
Yes
If Bozo were the republican candidate and the election were next week do you think Obama has a chance?
Yes
LOL. So he gives Hillary the finger and then appoints her as SoS? Only in right wing world does that fit together.
"So he gives Hillary the finger and then appoints her as SoS? "
Yes, that's precisely what he did. He's keeping his friends close and his enemies closer (Rahm's idea).
He co-opted Hillary and she acquiesced because she knew it was her last hurrah and really who wants to live in fucking Mauntauk, NY with Bill Clinton fucking all those girls down the hall?
You don't have to please the conservatives! Nor will the Pope ever get elected, here, as president.
What are the odds for Biden being in the Oval Office? Not "none." Because they weren't "none" for Teddy Roosevelt. Or LBJ.
While it's possible, if Trump should run. He'd get democraps. Independents. And, some republicans. The conservative candidate would come in 3rd.
And, if Ralph Nader runs, again, he'll get less than 2%.
Now, IF in a few weeks we learn that the bamster had another birth name ... will Chief Justice Roberts do a re-do of the Oath?
If he doesn't, would Kagan and Sotomayor be among the casualties?
You mean you don't think there will be any casualties?
The reason the Times gives are silly. My dog could beat Obama in 2012.
No person both sane and intelligent wants to be president in 2013. That's about when the fiscal train wreck we've been printing... er, putting off will happen. We're going to have big tax hikes, big cuts to popular programs, and high inflation.
Who wants to preside over that?
Funny, but in 2008, the election results were brutal for McCain.
And, if you think Hillary would have won, then you don't know much about America, and the way the voting tends to produce LOSERS.
Hillary would have LOST! Even among democraps, the women, alone, can't elect anyone to office.
For some reason the bamster stuck Biden in the veep's slot. And, Hillary got State. (I don't see how this managed to add any shine to Hillary's credentials.) But that's just me.
The horse race will be between two deficit hawks running for President in 2012, but at least one of them will be lying.
For reference:
1) Stay within public financing limits
2) Get out of Iraq
3) Close Gtmo
4) Turn back the Patriot Act
5) End the electronic surveillance expanded under Bush
6) Post bills on the internet before signing
7) Delay signing bills for 72 hours.
8) Get congressional vote before starting new military interventions
9) Get U.N. approval before committing U.S. military
10) End Bush tax cuts
11) Officially recognize the Armenian Genocide.
12) Try foreign terrorism suspects in civilian courts
13) Adopt a rescue dog for the family pet.
Just to mention a few.
Imagine how well he'll keep the ones he DOESN'T like.
Conservatives, I beseech you! Stop whining about 2008 and start worrying about 2012.
And as always, pace yourselves! :)
"My dog could beat Obama in 2012."
Where can I donate to your dog's campaign?
UT says:
"I now believe it could be a 57-state victory."
Maybe he was referring to the recently-declared states of Kenya and Indonesia.
I'll be damned, he **is** a citizen of this country.
No need to ask any further questions about his birth status.
Garage says:
"LOL. So he gives Hillary the finger and then appoints her as SoS? Only in right wing world does that fit together."
Now Hillary can give Obama the finger. Hell, even a deranged liberal like her doesn't think Obama is a good president.
Even Biden doesn't take him seriously...but then again...who takes Biden seriously?
I'm going to make some popcorn so that I can see this circus unfold.
I spend effort trying to get my unacceptable opinions out, and these guys are going out of their way to avoid scrutiny.
Yeah,I know&so it goes&it's not as if some things are all that different even now.
So he gives Hillary the finger and then appoints her as SoS?
Would you like a few thousand examples of politicians teaming up with people they openly despised?
madAsHell said...
This is FUD! Obama is awesome, and no one wants to run against him.
My sense is......The yaller dog democrats have left the building.
I would tend to agree. The base is getting restive.
When a black supporter writes a piece in USA Today dissing Little Zero for not doing more about unemployment, Barry better start wondering who's going to play the Chap of Quiddick to his Plains man.
The NYT is again trying to dictate the course of the GOP party. Those days are gone, as is the NYT.
There was a recent poll where republican insiders just discovered a majority of Americans couldn't name one republican candidate!
There's also the reality of the coffers. The democraps have George Soros. What have the pubbie's got?
There are a whole lot of em who can't raise money!
Then they see Trump come along, and they see a bonanza for a guy who runs the Miss America pageant.
Since I have no TV, I had no idea there was a show called The Apprentice ... though I did hear the Trump tag line "You Are Fired."
Gosh, that show's been on 11 seasons. When Trump says he's got the resources of a gold mine, he's not kidding!
As to the stuff that ends up on the Net, I saw the Anderson Cooper clip, today. And, Trump beat him silly.
You know the questions, by now. And, you know Trump isn't going to give away what he's learned about "the man in the Oval Office."
Though Jerome Corsi's book has made it to #1 at Amazon. And, they ship. No need to walk to any local bookstore to find out where they're gonna be hiding those copies.
I'll gt my copy as soon as it's published.
And, when I watched the Anderson Cooper interview I just laughed.
It's a good time to own Trump's stock. And, to sell Coca-Cola.
They better find someone good to run against him. Otherwise, why take GOP criticisms seriously?
Carol, how exactly does one go about buying Trump stock?
According to the NYT blog The Caucus,...
Which automatically makes it worthless. They can't even accurately report the news, so why would I rely on them for analysis of the party they despise? Good lookin' out.
Next, you'll be reading The World Net Daily to see what Dennis Kucinich is planning,...
Oh look, Pravda is dreamcasting again.
I think Democrats are expected to post these "5 Reasons" next to their bathroom mirror.
Which automatically makes it worthless. They can't even accurately report the news, so why would I rely on them for analysis of the party they despise? Good lookin' out.
No kidding.
And I don't understand why people still read them. Relying on the NYTs as your information broker is like going back to buy stock from the guy who sold you on Enron.
I LOOOOVE this meme that "nobody" is willing to run on the Republican side and that the field is weak. Weren't they complaining just a few days ago that there were so many contenders that no one was outstanding from the field yet?
NOT ONE of the candidates being talked about has less experience or is less successful in the private sector than the naif from Chicago they foisted on us in 2008.
Their problem is that there is no single candidate which they can attempt to Alinsky by personalizing, freezing, etc. Much like the Tea Party the Republican opposition is an amorphous blob which cannot be easily demonized. Bush was an easy target and they had 8 years to soften him up.
They also voters turning out in droves to deliver a 60 Democrat Senate and an overwhelming majority in the House. And the Democrats have ALREADY conceded that they will lose seats in the Senate and have no shot at retaking the House in 2012.
Even with ALL that: Obama STILL didn't reach 53% with every possible wind at their back. That's their maximum percentage and they know it. The Republican contender only has to convince 3% of American voters that Obama is a failed president in order to win.
3%. You think you can't find 3 out of 100 voters to vote for "anybody but Obama"?
Gallup shows that America has become MORE conservative in the interim. Republican party registration is up since 2008. And they think it's going to be difficult to find 3 lousy percent who are ready for someone else to take the reins?
As far as the "media glare," let's look at the state of the media since the last election. They've lost viewers and readers while conservative talk radio and blogs are more popular now.
The levers of power at the state level favored Democrats in 2008 but that has shifted dramatically in Republican favor since then.
Public sector unions are taking a shellacking across the country as their members have been laid off and their bargaining rights curtailed. They're deeply in debt due to the vast sums they spent to get Obama elected, and their income streams are being curtailed daily.
The Tea Party didn't exist in 2008, so there was NO animating force for conservative/libertarian voters with McCain atop the ticket. That won't be the case in 2012 with every anti-Obama voter being of the "broken glass" variety.
45% of the country has ALREADY decided that they definitely will not vote for Obama's re-election. Those are unpersuadable voters who are LOST.
Democrats are already talking about their best hope for re-election being "expanding the electorate", i.e., turning out massive amount of young voters who have never voted before. Who exactly are they planning to get who didn't already vote in 2008? How many of those starry-eyed youngsters are going to go door-knocking this time around like they did in 2008?
Barry was able to lie to conservative Democrats and moderate Republicans by posing as a fiscal moderate (remember how he was going to go line by line through the budget?). He won't be able to this time.
He is no longer a tabula rasa. His slate has TONS of writing on it and most of it spells out F-A-I-L.
He was going to change Washington. Be the most transparent administration ever and he still won't release any of his personal records, has been having backroom meetings with lobbyists, etc.
ObamaCare. Enough said.
Unemployment, crushing debt, inflation, sky-high gas prices while the president has private concerts at the White House and works on his golf handicap.
On. and on. And on.
The problem that Republicans have is that Obama is such a target-rich environment that it will be difficult to hit them all.
He may spend $1 billion, but money can't buy you love.
I think it is risky for the Republicans to win in 2012. The reason - I expect the economy might hit the dumper HARD after the election and it would be a losing tactic to tell the truth: Obama destroyed the engine of prosperity in only 4 years. They would sound like Obama ... It's Bush's fault.
Can he really raise a billion? He's lost Wall Street. He's lost independents. He can't go back to Europe, and someone will be watching his online donations.
He has young people and poor people and unions, which are under financial pressure. Does that add up to a billion?
Why are people so terrified about Obama having a huge war chest? If you think it is possible to buy an election, allow me to direct your attention to the last California governor's race.
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