And here's the NYT report:
The outcome, which followed an outpouring of criticism of the measure from core Republican voters and from liberal Democrats as well, was a significant setback for the president. It came mainly at the hands of members of his own party after he championed the proposal in the hope of claiming it as a major domestic policy achievement in the last months of his administration.We're down to the "last months" already?
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46 comments:
This bill should R.I.P.
But I think it will rise from the grave.
Trey
I always doubt it when I'm told someone elses motivation such as "in the hope of claiming it as a major domestic policy achievement."
How do they figure that? Is there some reason to think that Bush is looking for or cares about a "major domestic policy achievement" over, for instance, caring about passing an illegal immigration reform bill because he thinks it's important?
It is something that he'd always said we needed and he always had views on what to do about this that were not at all popular among the Republican "base." This has always been something that he always held *against* the majority of Republicans. It would make more sense that he was pushing it because he felt it was important. That it was a priority for him.
The idea that he's looking for a policy achievement to claim is a weird sort of assertion to make.
(Yes, I know that toward the end of Clinton's administration people talked about him wanting to ensure his "legacy." I don't remember what it was he wanted to do, though.)
Its not dead, just sleeping. Kennedy has vowed to bring it back, and likely will be able to. Much of the credit/blame for temporarily killing it comes from Bush's Republican party, and the vast bulk who oppose the bill in its current form.
Despite claims that it is fortifying our borders, it seems to be doing the opposite, moving away from the fence that is supposed to be going up right now.
And the linking the amnesty to the tightening of our borders seems to be misdirection since it appears that illegals would get almost immedidate legal status, regardless of what is done on our borders. It is only when they apply for citizenship that most of the onerous provisions kick in.
What I think might have a decent chance of passage would be:
- first control our borders, using fences, high tech, and a lot more (armed) border agents.
- then allow legal status to those who have been here for awhile, but not a road to citizenship.
- eliminate all family reunification visas, etc. Getting one person here legally shouldn't be able to leveraged into a dozen or so. Worse, if they started illegally.
- but without familiy reunification, it is probably ok to continue to allow for citizenship for those born here.
"We're down to the "last months" already?"
And there was much rejoicing.
It's the End Times.
it "is" the best of times, those "were" the worst of times....
if this isn't a lessen for public debate and open-air transparency in the political process i don't know what is.
this offensive president finally delivered up the same pail of poison to his conservative based that he has been dishing up to the rest of us.
tough to swallow isn't it? now do you see why we have disliked this bonzo so intensely?
What killed the Senate immigration bill?
That's an important question but I really haven't got an answer.
I'm still trying to figure out what killed the radio star.
This bill smacked either of a GOP death wish, or that those GOP supporting it were content with telling their constituents that they are wrong. All 98% of them who were against it.
Monumentally stupid. OTOH, any bill that wastes this much Senate time, exposes the true beliefs of Senators, and achieves nothing can't be all bad.
It doesn't seem like a complicated story - the compromise position never enjoyed a majority, and the amendments each side wanted to garner their support were unacceptable to the other side. So the unamended bill that came to the floor couldn't pass, and any amendments that were added made it less likely to pass.
Maybe it was the constituents like myself who called thier Senators and voiced thier disapproval over what amounted to nothing more than a free pass for 12-15 million illegals and thier extended families.
This entire issue is a complete waste of time. Enforce the laws that are on the books now. Start cracking down on all businesses who employ illegals and when it becomes too expensive to employ them, they'll go back. Quit educating them, quit providing ER care and they'll go back. Quit making it so convenient to break the law and they'll go back.
I am also sick of this being casted as a race issue because if anything, this current bill is racist in the sense that unless you live south of the border, this bill does nothing for you. Poles, Russians, Africans, Brits who don't have the luxury of simply walking across the desert yet if you're from Mexico we'll fall all over ourselves to re-write the law.
Simon very elegantly summarizes the political issues about the bill; Hoosier Daddy nails it about why people don't like it. It was dumb. It reflected the views of a very small group of old men who are, apparently, totally out of touch with many of their constituents.
It also reflects to some degree about the political ineptness of Harry Reid who apparently can't get tough legislation through the Senate. But thats a whole other story.
Roger - I don't see why the bill's defeat isn't being characterized as a victory for bipartisanship. The people voting against cloture were drawn from all corners of both parties: Olympia Snowe and John Kyl voted against cloture; Max Baucus and Bernie Sanders voted against cloture. This bill didn't fail (as the WaPo contends) because the center couldn't persuade the fringe; I'd suggest it failed because the center didn't support it.
Once again, Republicans will always provide Democrats with the 'racists' stick to be beaten with. We're a bunch of machoists I guess.
The idea that 10-15 million people are going *anywhere*, least of all back to poverty-ridden disfunctional countries, in a reasonable time frame is just wacky. They are here and they are staying. We better deal with the situation.
Hoosier Daddy wrote: unless you live south of the border, this bill does nothing for you. Poles, Russians, Africans, Brits who don't have the luxury of simply walking across the desert yet if you're from Mexico we'll fall all over ourselves to re-write the law.
Well, those crossing the border still don't have the sweet deal given those Cubans who reach the beach.
A couple of comments:
1. Harry Reid says some amazing things that reveal his underlying thoughts. Last time we had the "war is lost" statement. In this debate, it was his comment supporting "12 million undocumented Americans". That raised a lot of hackles even among the Democratic base.
2. Many normal average Americans clearly saw that this bill would result in this process:
a. immediate legalization of 12-15 million illegals including folks already ordered deported, gang members, etc
b. a rush of additional millions illegals, who would use forged documents and a 1 day review process to claim they they too were here on 1 Jan 07
c. legalization of anyone who could claim to be in the extended family of groups a and b above
d. build a short wall, hire a few new agents. these actions regardless of their effectiveness then trigger amnesty for the folks in groups a,b,c above.
e. the sucking vacuum and the gutless pandering of the political elites result in the next 50 million illegals coming across expecting the next phrase of immigration reform, 1965, 86, 07, 17
3. What a lot of folks wanted was:
a. first build a useful wall.
b. crack down on employers
c. check immigration status of all folks convicted (not arrested) of felonies
d. deport convicted felons while they are still in custody
e. deport folks ordered deported by courts
f. put a long term screening and background process in place to legalize illegals remaining. But take your time and do it right. not with 100,000 additional applications A DAY, WITH 24 HOUR REQUIRED PROCESSING into a system that is already working with huge backlogs.
Simon: you raise a good point: The bill did come from the fringes of either party, and got shot down by the center of both parties. I had not thought about it in those terms. I do tend to forget there really is a center in this country!
Well, those crossing the border still don't have the sweet deal given those Cubans who reach the beach.
No argument there but political asylum is a different than immigrating for economic reasons.
Then again I would argue that those crossing the border are pretty much getting the same deal as Cubans considering the number of 'sanctuary cities' sprouting around the country.
This is not really a victory because this bill IS NOT dead. It was strategically withdrawn precisely so it could live another day. Anybody seriously thinking that the feds actually intend to start building that fence now?
It is my understanding that the fence is currently under construction. It was authorized and funded last year. The latest bill only used its construction to 370 miles as a trigger.
Bush should take this opportunity to show that the federal gov. is competent enough to enforce immigration laws. Finishing the fence, punishing employers, and rounding up illegals in the interim would go a long way in showing the American People that the feds are serious about the law.
The feds should also punish rogue municpalities who hinder immigration enforcement.
Bruce Hayden, outstanding policy statement. If I could, I would vote for you.
Trey
Sloan wrote: "It is my understanding that the fence is currently under construction."
Technically correct, but not much has been built at all.
"Bush should take this opportunity to show that the federal gov. is competent enough to enforce immigration laws."
Agreed. But that would require the will to do so, something I have seen nary a smidgen of.
Finishing the fence, punishing employers, and rounding up illegals in the interim would go a long way in showing the American People that the feds are serious about the law.
Another great policy statement. I have no faith in the current administration or Congress to do anything along that path.
"The feds should also punish rogue municpalities who hinder immigration enforcement."
Agreed. And they should financially reward municipalities that are doing the work of ICE by sifting through local arrests to detain illegals.
Trey
Technically correct, but not much has been built at all... I have no faith in the current administration or Congress to do anything along that path.
Which is why, when I left the GOP last week, I stated I would not return until after the wall was finished. No empty promises, no loopholes, no bait-n-switch. Put the burden on them to perform. They've had 20 years to get this right.
Echo your comments re Bruce Hayden. I might just write him in on my 08 ballot :)
"...this offensive president finally delivered up the same pail of poison to his conservative based (sic) that he has been dishing up to the rest of us."
Another illuminating analysis. Except, of course, the bill was as much or more so Teddy Kennedy's than it was Bush's (who doesn't have a congressional majority to make any bill "his".) The bill was/is awful indeed, but one really should try to acquaint oneself with the facts of the matter before mindlessly and reflexively slagging Bush - not that evolution equipped you with those skills of discernment.
Fen said...
"Which is why, when I left the GOP last week, I stated I would not return until after the wall was finished."
"All in all, you were all just bricks in the..."
hehe
Micky Kaus has been all over this since day one and has good analysis [in case you missed him]
http://www.slate.com/id/2167718/
Re: Bruce Hayden
- eliminate all family reunification visas, etc. Getting one person here legally shouldn't be able to leveraged into a dozen or so.
I generally agree with your proposed priorities, but I'm not sure I agree with this. For people who already have wives or husbands back home, that's kind of hard. Also -- and I'm not sure precisely how this works -- possibly kind of hard for the natives who have married abroad who now want to return home with their families.
I think reunification might reasonably be limited, though, to spouses and minor children. My understanding, perhaps incorrect, is that the problem arises when people go up the family tree to bring the parents, and then down again to capture all the siblings, cousins, and so forth. This does leave people who want to bring in their elderly parents in a bit of a pickle, but I think that's an acceptable hardship.
Allow me to revise my question. Anybody seriously thinking that the feds actually intend to start building that fence in earnest now?
Another thing. I personally tire of politicos and talking heads who say things like, "It isn't going to happen that we are going to round of 12 million people and deport them. It just isn't going to happen." People who say that drive me nuts. They don't get it and they aren't taking this situation seriously. They are way to eager to cave in. No, we aren't going to round these people up. And we don't need to. Immigration policy handled properly will result in these people rounding themselves up in large measure and deporting themselves. The object is to make it so uncomfortable to be here that they choose to leave.
Re: Tim:
Except, of course, the bill was as much or more so Teddy Kennedy's than it was Bush's (who doesn't have a congressional majority to make any bill "his".)
Well, okay, yes, but we all know that Bush is the mover behind the scenes here.
On the "see how bad Bush is!" point, though, you should remember that this is not the first time the conservative base has become incadescent with rage at him. They/we did before with the Harriet Miers nomination to the Supreme Court, and with the rumours that he was going to try and get Alberto Gonzales in to the Court as well. And they beat him then too.
Yes, the fact that he does what he feels to be right regardless of what anyone else (i.e. us) thinks can be kind of annoying when we disagree with him. But it's also the kind of thing we elected him for -- we were tired of a President who couldn't take a holiday without consulting a poll first. Now it may be that we've gotten tired of a President who doesn't give a crap what the polls say, and so we'll elect someone different, someone obsessed with public opinion, a year and a half hence.
But he's behaving more or less the way we might have expected him to. And when we think he's gone astray, we just have to mobilise to set him straight. His Supreme Court nominations, from the conservative perspective, seem to have turned out fine once we constrained his range of political action. And the same may prove true here as well.
I think reunification might reasonably be limited, though, to spouses and minor children.
Well this is where I really get my shorts in a bunch because I don't think anyone really thinks about the numbers we're talking about. The general consensus is around 12 million illegals. Let's just assume 4 million of them have one spouse and one kid to bring over and now that's another 8 million people added to the population so now we're at 20 million in a heartbeat.
Can we reasonably asborb 20 million low skilled and undeducated people into the nation without some kind of massive readjustment of resources? What kind of time frame are we talking about here and are our elected officials taking into account how this influx couples with the current legal immigration taking place.
So now what? The bill is dead, or almost dead, because of opposition by constituents, and both parties have declared their constituents to be un-American bigots.
Tim oh Tim...
This was Bush's initiative make no mistake. I just love you sycophants who can't cast a stone at the decider in chief.
I bet if bush pisses in the toilet and misses and hits the floor he really didn't piss there, he was just marking the spot where someone else did.
teflon george's presidential days are number. his record of achievements can fill the front inside cover of my pet goat if written in large crayon.
The idea that 10-15 million people are going *anywhere*, least of all back to poverty-ridden disfunctional countries, in a reasonable time frame is just wacky. They are here and they are staying. We better deal with the situation.
I don’t think anyone suggested that twelve million illegal aliens will return or be sent back to their country of origin. What people opposed to the legislation have said (and I agree) is that the legislation would essentially ratify their law-breaking by allowing to remain legally in the United States (the “fine” is a joke) and create an incentive for even more people to do the same – much like the 1986 legislation. In other words it’s not just about the twelve million that are here now but how many more will follow suite when they see the current twelve million given an amnesty for their law-breaking.
Clearly the President has been pushing this basic version of immigration reform (legalization and guest workers) since he came into office. What surprises me is that people are surprised about that.
teflon george's presidential days are number [sic]
This may come as a surprise to you hd but all president's days are numbered. It's called term limits.
Bush has been nothing more than a disappointment to the conservative cause and hardly any of the circle of conservative friends I have, say little good has come of his presidency. Largest expansion of Federal entitlements since LBJ, exploding Fed spending, all but welcoming millions of illegals into the country.
If I subscribed to conspiracy theories, I'd swear he was a sleeper Democrat designed to destroy the GOP. How else can you explain how the "stupidest man on the face of the earth" managed to beat out the vastly superior intellects of Gore and Kerry? Considering how the GOP has managed to break away from thier own base, it's not a hard leap to make.
And they thought McCain was the Manchurian Candidate.
When it comes to applying the journalistic Five W's, NYT gets stuck on Who to the exclusion of What, When, Where, and Why. It follows politics like a gossip columnist follows society. Bush is unpopular, Congress even more so. Left-wing loonies and right-wing loonies lie down together. Because of this, I rarely read NYT unless someone like you calls a story to my attention.
As Bruce Hayden (above) notes, border security comes first. As to those already here, I'm down with the status quo. They arrived in the shadows, let them remain there. All of them whether Mexican, Central American, Irish, Bulgarian, Slovakian, or Mongolian. Pressure employers. They're fewer in number and more tractable.
Nice post by Bruce Hayden that I think speaks well to the reasons the "Center" of the Country that managed to drive off the Elite's attempt to shove a back-room deal past them:
What I think might have a decent chance of passage would be:
- first control our borders, using fences, high tech, and a lot more (armed) border agents.
- then allow legal status to those who have been here for awhile, but not a road to citizenship.
- eliminate all family reunification visas, etc. Getting one person here legally shouldn't be able to leveraged into a dozen or so. Worse, if they started illegally.
- but without familiy reunification, it is probably ok to continue to allow for citizenship for those born here.
Some in the center of a liberal bent, especially women, DO see or feel that it would be heartless somehow, not to allow complete reunification of families - but as Hayden later pointed out, that is just a recipie for endless chain migration. Instead of 12 million, you are then talking about 20 million just with immediate family. Beyond what Hayden said - it's 40-45 million under current extended family rules.
In the "compassionate" family ties 1st, before highly educated immigrants waiting for critical jobs are even considered, whole Palestinian, Nigerian, Mexican, Yemeni villages of interlocked close relatives have exploited this and come over.
I also think as the only advanced nation that makes instant citizens of illegal's babies - that has to end. People that think the 14th Amendment somehow guarantees that any invading people or Army can stay if they only drop an anchor baby or two need to have that tested.
And an end to State taxpayers having to pay for the care, education, feeding, social burdens of illegals where profits from such cheap illegal labor not too atypically go to wealthy owners in and out of state (even out of country to wealthy Euro, Saudi, Israeli owners) that only pick up a miniscule fraction of the costs otherwise born by people in State that get no benefit, only harm from vast numbers of illegals.... Let the Federal taxpayer do it, and it's just to put the costs of illegals onto the people that most profit from their lowering the wages in many industries with higher taxes on the Owner Class's profits derived from the present illegal labor.
oh Hoosier you sly fox you...of course his days are numbered if you think of it that way. I was praying for impeachment but I'll just settle for him slinking out the rear door in disguise.
As to the rest of your post (sic!) and opinion (si!), you ask how he beat out the vastly superior intellects....
well two things come to mind, cheating and lots of other people's money.
well two things come to mind, cheating and lots of other people's money.
Are you referring to Bush or John F. Kennedy?
Cheating? Still hung up on hanging chads? Well I have always contended that while voting is a right, intelligence isn't and that was aptly demonstrated by the plethora of Gore voters who can't decipher a ballot simpler than a bingo card. Yeah, that Democrat designed ballot card which inevitably landed Bush in office. See my theory has some plausibility.
Then again you have to admit that after the mid term elections in which the Democrats took power, it appeared that all those 'irregularities' were miraculously remedied.
Funny that.
Hoosier Daddy - And they thought McCain was the Manchurian Candidate.
He is. If he was ever elected, he and his "special good friends" Teddy Kennedy and John Kerry would work to finish the damage Duyba has started. McCain cannot be trusted.
Sloanasaurus - It is my understanding that the fence is currently under construction. It was authorized and funded last year. The latest bill only used its construction to 370 miles as a trigger.
It is Duncan Hunter's understanding that Ted Kennedy's boy at Homeland Security, Judge Chertoff, has deliberately gone slow with Dubya's connivance for his "Doer-folk entrepreneural pals" regarding the 850 miles of fence and 1 billion in funding authorized well
over a year and a half ago. Or the unspent 2002, 2003 authorizations..that Bush's Fed agencies elected to "study more".
11 miles built or upgraded.
Only 11 miles.
And that intent was sabotaged in the bill so only building half the proposed 1st installment triggered Amnesty.
Bush should take this opportunity to show that the federal gov. is competent enough to enforce immigration laws.
I have, as a now former Republican like Fen, absolutely no confidence in the good intentions or competence of Bush to protect America's Borders.
Some other poster called Bush the stupidest person on the face of the Planet. I believe that title is held by Doug Feith. But Bush and Barbara Boxer and Lindsay Lohan are close.
**********************
The lack of urgency on securing the Southern Border by Bush and other members of the Ruling Elites, plus the Hard Left collaborators they count on -- is stunning and as close to a "F*ck You!" betrayal of all Americans as we have experienced in recent history.
It's not just the illegals and the open contempt of law being shoved in the face of every American. It adds to other reasons that each and of themselves would demand urgency in a country less corrupted by money and special interests than America:
Reason #2 - 85% of the illegal drugs that enter the USA come across the Mexican Border. As drug dealers backed by bought Mexican Army units drive trucks full of it across our Border. A 20 billion industry in it's own right that inflicts 280-300 billion in damages in added social costs, crime, and low achievement in the
underclass.
It has helped destabilize Latin countries with narcoterror. Particularly Columbia, Panama, and Mexico.
Building a secure Border will help reduce that - despite the natural seeking of alternatives - it is simply tougher to do so when you can't drive whole trucks of it in with impunity or load up 20 illegals with backpacks full of heroin or coke as part of their smuggling fee.
Reason # 3. After 9/11 - it is insane that the Ruling Elites and immigrant lobbies have been able to block any effort by the US to secure the Southern Border or track which Visa holders that entered the country in fact, left.
I blame Bush most of all for that, because he failed to lead because he believes enhanced Owner Class profits from cheaper labor overrides security.
Reason #4 - Immigration had driven explosive population growth in the USA. From 220 million in our 1st energy crisis in 1973 to 300 million now with projections of 363 million by 2030 with Amnesty. Now some libertarians and pro-Open Borders Elites think that is great - that we must become far more populous like China or India to "compete" with them. But it has played havoc with decades of careful national and urban planning that assumed far lower growth. Outstripping our road, medical facility, school capacities with largely people that do not pay 1 dollar for every 3 they consume - and also threatening to trigger major costs stuck on all Americans to do an emergency expansion of now inadequate infrastructure.
It also makes energy conservation and talk of energy idependence a joke. All the energy savings of flourescent bulbs and hybrid cars are negated by 2 million Juans, Abdullahs, and Chungs pouring across our Borders uninvited each year...It kills our efforts to become ME oil free. It's money in the hands of the Saudis. (One reason maybe why the Bushies like it so much) And adding 30 million more foreigners nearly instantly in "Muslim, Mexican, Haitian family reunions" if Amnesty happens will strain certain infrastructure so much collapse is likely and for the 1st time in America, free movement may have to be discouraged (meaning no more building permits, no automatic placement of newcomers in public schools, cities effectively hanging up "no vacancy signs" Something already happening in other 3rd World Nations like America is now becoming)
Reason #5 - We have sanctioned the emergence of major organized criminal gangs of foreigners that are now engaged in near racial war in LA, Miami, NOLA, DC, Phoenix, Atlanta -etc. with black thugs. Pushing up the US crime rate sharply.
Reason #6 - The illegal influx has been so large and so fast with the vast majority ill-educated Spanish speaking only folks that the cultural force of "Habla espanol, por favor!!" that it is forcing government and private employers dealing extensively with immigrant employees or foreign born "customers" to hire only Spanish speaking Americans and forcing existing employees to learn Spanish as a condition of continued employment or being promoted.
(LA is beginning to clean out black city employees in courts, police dispatching jobs, schools, and courts unable to learn fluent Spanish from such jobs to new "make believe jobs" or right out on the street.)
It's now pretty clear that the U.S. is unwilling to enact or enforce any meaningful controls on immigration, and the Senate has just advertised that fact to the world. We should just declare open borders and be done with it. At least then I won't have to hassle with moronic Border Patrol agents when I drive back from a Canadian vacation.
"On the "see how bad Bush is!" point, though, you should remember that this is not the first time the conservative base has become incadescent with rage at him. They/we did before with the Harriet Miers nomination to the Supreme Court, and with the rumours that he was going to try and get Alberto Gonzales in to the Court as well. And they beat him then too."
Balfegor, I fully appreciate Bush's role in the illegal alien amnesty bill, as I do his previous mistakes; and am happy he failed on those. My point, as it seems to have not been noticed elsewhere, was that the immigration bill was a bi-partisan effort. True, Kennedy, et. al. may not have acted had a different Republican president been in office; but none of us should be surprised if the Hillary! becomes our next president a bill very similar to this one is taken up again, with little or no Rep support. Comments reflexively slagging Bush to validate one’s hatred of him as entirely rational adds nothing to the conversation.
I love the way this gets framed as The defeat was also crushing for a bipartisan group of about a dozen senators who met privately for three months to broker a compromise
bipartisan=amnesty guys=good
against the bill = nativist if GOP, else Concerned Pro-Unionists, if Dems
since 45 votes were for closure and only 7 of those GOP, while 50 votes were against (11 of those DEMS) with 3 GOP'er not voting
so why isn't the headline, Bipartisan Senators vote to continue hammering out a comprehensive immigration enforcement bill.
I note that Barbara Boxer, a light weight, left wing Senator from CA who is up for reelection, wasn't willing to vote for closure either. I wonder why...
We're down to the "last months" already?
Sheesh -- I wish. I don't have much hope that we can stall illegal immigrant amnesty long enough to get someone else into the White House.
Re: Tim:
Comments reflexively slagging Bush to validate one’s hatred of him as entirely rational adds nothing to the conversation.
Oh to be sure -- I was responding to the hdhouse comment you quoted above, actually.
Smilin' Jack: It's now pretty clear that the U.S. is unwilling to enact or enforce any meaningful controls on immigration, and the Senate has just advertised that fact to the world. We should just declare open borders and be done with it.
I'm good with that, if the IRS will show me the same courtesy when I refuse to pay my taxes.
I am with Mr. House on this one, the President used his bully pulpit for this bill as if it were indeed his.
I disagree in that I do not see him as coated with teflon. If her were teflon, his approval would be room temperature not kegarator temperature.
Reminds me to have a beer after I get home from work.
Trey
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