A tax policy juxtaposition.

1. "Rep. Tammy Baldwin, who's running against former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson for Wisconsin's open Senate seat, argued in her address to the Democratic National Convention Thursday that millionaires should pay their fair share in taxes."

We believe that if we're going to prosper, everyone has to have a fair shot, and everyone has to do their fair share. That's why I'm proud to lead the charge for the Buffet Rule, which makes sure that millionaires and billionaires don't get to pay a lower tax rate than middle-class families.

Baldwin said that Paul Ryan and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker "don't speak for all of Wisconsin," Baldwin said.

She said, she said. Okay, then. Message received.

2. "Wisconsin collected $126.6 million more than previously expected this year, which may lead to the largest amount of money transferred to the state’s rainy day fund"

Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald said in a statement the positive numbers can be attributed to the “reforms” under Gov. Scott Walker and the Republican Legislature.

“We made the tough decisions required to balance our budget with the next generation in mind but it’s heartening to see our actions having an immediate positive impact on Wisconsin’s economy,” Fitzgerald said.

Fitzgerald also mentioned Wisconsin is “buck[ing] the national trend” by increasing revenues as well as having more people on payrolls.

New Marquette poll: Tommy Thompson 28%, Eric Hovde 20%, Mark Neumann 18%, Jeff Fitzgerald 13%.

With 21% still undecided, the Thompson lead isn't very impressive. And Thompson has gone down since the last poll, last month, when he was at 35%. Hovde too is down. He was at 23% last month. It's Neumann who's up — 8 points from last month's 10%. And Fitzgerald is still at the bottom, but he's more than doubled his support, having been way down at 6% in July.

Although Hovde is down 3 points, the gap between him and Thompson is smaller — from 12 to 8 points.

When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean towards, the vote becomes 33 percent for Thompson, 24 percent for Hovde, 21 percent for Neumann and 15 percent for Fitzgerald. Seven percent remain undecided. The Republican primary results are based on 519 likely voters (i.e., those who say they are certain they will vote in the August 14 primary).

I see 2 big questions: 1. Is non-Tommy sentiment essentially anti-Tommy? 2. If so, can the anti-Tommy people settle on one of the non-Tommys?

Among the 19 percent of likely primary voters who describe themselves as “very conservative,” there is a close-packed tie for the lead, with Hovde at 24 percent, Neumann at 22 percent, Thompson at 21 percent and Fitzgerald at 15 percent. Among those describing themselves as “conservative,” who make up 52 percent of likely primary voters, Thompson has an advantage at 27 percent to Hovde at 20 percent, Neumann at 19 percent and Fitzgerald at 13 percent. Among the 20 percent of likely voters calling themselves “moderate,” Thompson receives 34 percent to Hovde’s 18 percent, with Neumann at 14 percent and Fitzgerald at 13 percent.

It's hard to figure out how to vote strategically — assuming your goal, as a GOP primary voter, is, above all, for the Senate seat to go to the Republican. But it's an open primary, and Democrats might try to get the weakest candidate in. (But who would that be? Neumann?) Or Democrats might pick Thompson, on the theory that he's the least conservative. The Marquette pollster says that including only Republicans made little difference in the numbers — maybe because Democrats looking at Republicans split between the best loser (Neumann?) or the least-bad winner (Thompson).  

"With the help of a three-month, multi-million-dollar ad blitz, first-time candidate and wealthy businessman Eric Hovde..."

"... has reshuffled the Republican race for US Senate and emerged as a legitimate threat to the best-known figure in the field, former governor Tommy Thompson, two new polls suggest."

Where's the tipping point? The received wisdom is Tommy said he wants it and therefore it's Tommy's. But look at these new polls. I think there is potential for a sudden shift toward Hovde if people overcome the presumption that the nomination belongs to Tommy.

Understand: Hovde is one of the conservative alternatives to Thompson, and serious conservatives find Thompson insufficiently conservative, but of course they want to win the Senate seat in the end. So there's some risk-taking in jumping from Tommy to one of the conservatives. There are 2 other conservatives in the race — former congressman Mark Neumann and Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald — and both of them were much more well-known than Hovde, though much less well-known than Tommy Thompson. Hovde has now leveraged himself to the top of the conservative triad, which means that those who want someone from the conservative triad now know, with these 2 new polls, that they must coalesce around Hovde, or yield to the massive force that is Thompson.

Tommy Thompson is crushing Tammy Baldwin in the race to replace Herb Kohl in the Senate.

Rasmussen says it's 52% to 36%. Ouch.

Thompson isn't the candidate yet. Popular though he is, other Republicans are giving him competition. Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, no one is challenging Tammy Baldwin, the congresswoman who has for many years represented the district that includes Madison. Where are all the Democrats in this erstwhile blue state? Is there no one out there or have they somehow agreed to let Tammy have it? There ought to have been some very serious concern about her ability to appeal to people outside of the Madison area.

Eric Hovde — running for the U.S. Senate in Wisconsin — "said President Barack Obama is sending the country down a 'dark path' and the Democratic Party has its roots in communism."

Reports Patrick Marley in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. I'd sure like a real quote there! So he used the phrase "dark path" — an unwise metaphor that can be picked up by race-card players. But what did he say that got paraphrased as "the Democratic Party has its roots in communism"?

We get this direct quote: "The other side -- our side -- is rooted in the philosophy of self determination, free-market capitalism and conservatism." Which sounds fine.

Hovde was speaking at the GOP convention, where he was eliminated on the first vote. Tommy Thompson, interestingly enough, was eliminated on the second vote, and no one is getting the endorsement:

Jeff Fitzgerald — the speaker of the Wisconsin Assembly — will run for the U.S. Senate seat that Herb Kohl will vacate.

AP reports:

[Fitzgerald,] one of the key backers of Gov. Scott Walker's proposal curbing bargaining rights for public unions... said... he believes his role in passing that law is his largest asset heading into the race. The proposal drew protests as large as 100,000 people and made Wisconsin the center of a national fight on union rights,

"It's the No. 1 thing I've got going for me. It's fresh in people's minds," Fitzgerald said. "We did it right in Wisconsin. ... There are conservatives who think Wisconsin is ground zero for the movement."

There is one Democrat in the race so far. It's Tammy Baldwin, who walked arm-in-arm with Jesse Jackson, demonstrating strong support for the protesters.

On the Republican side, Tommy Thompson has declared his candidacy. One difference between Thompson and Fitzgerald is age. Thompson is 69. Fitzgerald turns 45 tomorrow. Thompson is taking the opportunity to run for a seat with no incumbent after he declined to challenge Russ Feingold in the 2010 elections. Back then, when the hard work of unseating Feingold lay ahead, Thompson asserted that it was time for a new generation. That bothers me.