You probably know Thucydides was a historian in ancient Greece, but is "Thucydides trap" a common term? It's pretty recent, according to Wikipedia, coined and popularized in the last 10 years, and used specifically in the context of the U.S. and China.
Based on an observation by Thucydides in his "History of the Peloponnesian War" that "it was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable," [political scientist Graham] Allison used the term to describe a tendency towards war when a rising power (such as Athens) challenges the status of a ruling power (such as Sparta). Allison... argued that "China and the US are currently on a collision course for war."...
James Palmer, a deputy editor at Foreign Policy, in his article "Oh God, Not the Peloponnesian War Again," wrote of the Thucydides Trap that "conflicts between city-states in a backwater Eurasian promontory 2,400 years ago are an unreliable guide to modern geopolitics—and they neglect a vast span of world history that may be far more relevant."... Lawrence Freedman has similarly argued that "[t]he case studies deployed by Allison," which "come from times when issues of war and power were viewed differently than they are today," tell us "very little of value," concluding that "the Thucydides Trap is an unhelpful construct."
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49 comments:
If you can potentially box China in via energy and monetary policy, does Taiwan matter?
Thats a peculiar reading of thucydides
Don't get your Thucidides in a knot.
Yes, the "Thucydides Trap" was a book and a common enough phrase since 2011. The graphic or meme showing every conflict between dominant powers and rising powers and whether the conflicts ended in peace or war was also much seen on the internet.
https://impakter.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Thucydides-Trap-Case-File-Harvard-e1551895028409.png
The phrase relates to the conflict between Athens and Sparta. When I first heard about it, I assumed democratic, liberal Athens won. Didn't the good guys always win? That wasn't true in this case though. There's a lesson for us somewhere in there.
the owners of CNBC are upset that Trump is upsetting their globalist enterprise.
They are begging China to fight the evil nasty Trump.
Xi knows the score and he knows Trump is going to win this.
I am more curious who asked the question and why they framed Xi's answer the way they did.
Lazarus, I keep forgetting to ask: are you the same Lazarus that comments on CDR Salamander? CC, JSM
There is no trap. China need only avoid attacking a peaceful neighbor that is a friendly trading partner with the rest of the world. I don’t think the average Chinese citizen is interested in war with Taiwan.
Is it worse than the dreaded Chinese finger trap?
Like the joke about chinese food (that i never knew to be true)
I confess I had to go look that one up, as it’s been a long time since I’ve studied that stuff. What’s key about the Thucydides Trap is that it describes a rising power coming into conflict with an established power—largely because the established power fears that if it allows the rising power to continue growing, it will eventually be displaced. There is certainly some of that thinking in parts of Washington.
But in the economic sphere, despite all the rhetoric, China’s ability to threaten the U.S. can be countered. First, by providing more value to the Chinese so they have greater dependence on us and more incentive to play along. Second, by collaborating with the rest of the world economy to discipline China when needed. Unfortunately, that’s not what we’ve been doing. And I don’t think what President Xi is signaling reflects peaceful intentions or mere polite words.
That said, a realistic view is that the world would be worse off if the U.S. and China fell into serious economic conflict. Ultimately, if Xi believes time is on his side, he doesn’t have to force the issue right now. And that’s another key point about economics: unlike military advantages, economic situations are rarely irreversible. There is no permanent end point.
Taiwanese industry is so integrated with the PRC, and especially with ChiCom high officials, that no Red general or admiral is going to shoot himself in the pocketbook by attacking the island. And the security bosses who would be tasked with killing the reluctant officers are just as invested in Taiwan. So if Xi gave the order to invade, that would be the inflection point where the guys with the guns realize "hey, we're the guys with the guns."
Xi may be discussing Taiwan with Trump so that he has a face- and life-saving excuse for abandoning the idea of invasion. CC, JSM
john mosby said...
Xi may be discussing Taiwan with Trump so that he has a face- and life-saving excuse for abandoning the idea of invasion. CC, JSM
The PRA is going through a turbulent time right now. Most of the top leadership has been arrested and their families quietly disappeared.
The pretense that China is a united force and Xi has control of even half his country is a joke.
Yeah their ranks have been thinned out
It is quite likely that Trump is trying to keep Xi in power because he doesn't want China to turn into a failed nuclear state with competing military juntas turning the country into a pre-unified China state.
China is on the brink of massive civil unrest and central government collapse. Trump seems interested in keeping that from happening.
That is a concern, some of these general could have taken up the warlord helmet somalia with nuclear weapond and missile stockpiles
Trump and his administration lack the competence to conceive and execute anything resembling a major deal. Achilles can relax -- water doesn't flow uphill.
Infinite Ex's Trump Pendulum has oscillated to "Blithering Idiot," back from "Evil Conspiracy Plotter." Must be rough on Trump to code-switch like that. CC, JSM
As a principled China hawk and longtime Republican, I will stand for nothing less than whatever Donald Trump is about to agree to, whatever that happens to be. ~ MAGA
Forget it john mosby hes rolling
10,000 rulings from 10,000 maniacs - Don Surber https://share.google/6U9rkHbxNFVkVIeqg
Athens lost. Sparta lost as well ultimately. Macedonia rose and took over the entire thing. That's the real lesson from those wars, the infighting between the greek states led to their eventual downfall and subjugation by the barbarian Macedonians. I wonder what other lessons we barely remember, like dishonored Troy, the original sin of Greco-roman civilization.
As a kak-a-bot bitch, I will ankle bite Trump and his supporters non-stop.
Stick with Biden - Kak-a-bot - he's your speed.
Open borders - corruption.
Are PRC and Taiwan in similar trap
Much ado about Fentanyl. The Green blight. More.
"Let them fight!"
“Athens lost. Sparta lost as well ultimately. Macedonia rose and took over the entire thing. That's the real lesson from those wars, the infighting between the greek states led to their eventual downfall and subjugation by the barbarian Macedonians.”
And then the Romans came, and made it all irrelevant.
I wonder if Xi is aware of the FAFO trap that Trump has sprung?
We’re talking about Thucydides and no one bothers to seek comments from Victor Davis Hanson.
“water doesn't flow uphill.”
Excrement 💩 flows from the lips 👄 of Tinyee®
Doesn't Xi read the USA press? China is finished. Sliding down to oblivion. Economic collapse is on the horizon. The US navy holds all the cards. We have a stanglehold on this or that.
We've been playing 4-D chess, unlike those dumb chinese. They were stupid enough to trade goods for dollars and now look where they are. Their No. 1 GDP (in purchasing power) is just a fraud. They've fallen into the "Yeehaw American Trap".
BTW, just because their economy is collapsing, doesn't mean they wont CONQUER THE WORLD if we take our eyes off the ball. So, after we get rid of Putin (he wants to CONQUER THE WORLD too), we'll take of China.
The NYT's doesnt write about what really important. Did xi and trump strike a deal over Iran. Have we convinced the Chinese not to aid Iran in return for something? Have the Chinese convinced Trump to return the world to the free flow of oil - in return for something? We don't know.
Unfortunately, China's foreign policy seems exactly zero-sum. That is, for China to do better everyone else must do worse.
I certainly hope VDH weighs in on this.
We can learn plenty from the Ancient Greeks, but the constant wars between the city-states is not relevant today. A very different dynamic then.
China bought half the media and academia ocean
They dont care
People forget how Thucydides wrote extensively about rape dogs and Persian control of the Strait of Hormuz through hantavirus.
I guess the Thucydides Trap applies to the Britain/Germany rivalry that led to WWI. It's fair to say that both parties to that conflict suffered catastrophic losses and later went on to suffer apocalyptic losses in their next conflict. Xi is preaching restraint but in a bellicose way........WWI was catastrophic to the interests of all parties involved, and they went ahead and did it. We'll see how it goes, but leaders of one party states don't always act in prudent ways.
“Thucydides Trap” is just some midwit trying to sound smart and clever. Thucydides’ line was merely an observation about two countries headed to war. There is no justification for generalizing it like this. It’s not a thing.
And I’ve never heard about it so, unless the kids are suddenly embracing ancient Greece studies, it’s not a saying; it’s not something even most educated people would be aware of.
Thucydides wasnt all that great shakes either (re the late donald kagan)
Being very honest, as a man, on a daily basis, I think a lot more about Ancient Rome than Greece, but Greece is a close second.
Here's an unsettling thought. Imagine Kamala Harris, a Biden, or just about any progressive Democrat in charge of negotiating the US/China future. Day drinking, here I come.
I don't get the point of "The Thucydides Trap." If a nation grows and challenges the supremacy of another nation, war is inevitable? What's the alternative--that the big powerful nations get to control things forever?
Also--I don't know how to pronounce "Thucydides" and I am guessing that Xi didn't even try.
Thucydides’ line was merely an observation about two countries headed to war.
Three countries. Thucydides' lesson is what happens when two roughly-equal-matched nations go to war, then one of them brings in a powerful ally. Sparta allied with the Greeks' historical nemesis, the Achaemenid Persian Empire, against Athens—and the rest is history.
A more modern parallel might be the Napoleonic Wars between Britain and France. France was predominating on the Continent, but then the Russian Empire entered the war—stimulated by France's invasion, not Britain's alliance, but otherwise (sort of) similar.
The ancient Athens-Sparta war also refutes the common aphorism that it's the winners of wars which write the history books. Thucydides wrote his great history—the first real history in history, or at least the first to develop and employ conscious standards of historicity (that is, first to try to demonstrate that what one writes is really true)—note that Thucydides wrote on the losing side of that long, great war.
The median American voter would also stare blankly if the president of China talked about a Thucydides Trap, so Donald Trump is probably more of a man of the people than Democrats want to admit.
Xi is getting rid of all of the leadership that disagrees with his forceful ‘reunification’ with Taiwan. The fact that the military leadership group has become such a lonely place won’t deter him.
Russia was a major partner in most of the anti-French coalitions before Napoleon got big enough to invade them.
Russian armies were fighting in the Netherlands, Switzerland and Italy as early as 1799.
Which has little to do with the wars of the Greek poleis, but I'm a pedant.
The conclusion to be drawn from the graphic, and one assumes from the book, is that things changed in 1945. Great powers no longer feel the need to go to war. The rivalries, though, remain -- and while still unthinkable war between superpowers may be less unthinkable now than it was in the recent past.
The early 20th century US-UK rivalry was also peacefully resolved according to the chart. Our rivalry with China is likely to be more like the US-USSR rivalry, but still, it's likely to be long, complicated, bitter and exasperating.
JSM: No, I'm not on CDR Salamander. Should I be?
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