The New York Times reports, in "Venezuela’s Machado Praises Trump in Fox News Interview/María Corina Machado, the Venezuelan opposition leader, offered to share her Nobel Peace Prize with President Trump. He has refused to back her."
Here's the interview:
ADDED: There's some good background in this other NYT article, published before that Fox News interview, "Why Trump Refused to Back Venezuela’s Machado: Fears of Chaos, and Fraying Ties/U.S. intelligence suggested María Corina Machado, Venezuela’s opposition leader, would struggle to lead the government. But her relationship with Trump officials had been souring for months" (NYT)(gift link). Excerpt:
Ms. Machado, a scion of a conservative magnate, had built strong connections in the Republican Party over the decades spent in Venezuelan politics, but she appeared little prepared for the transformation of the party into a transactional, ideologically agnostic political machine under Mr. Trump.
Categorical rejection of any talks or contact with Mr. Maduro’s government has been a bedrock of Ms. Machado’s political strategy, a strategy that has earned her the respect and support of a majority of Venezuelan people, but it has crippled her ability to build a broader coalition capable of enabling her bid for power.
Ms. Machado’s unequivocal support of sanctions has destroyed her relations with Venezuela’s business elite, which had built a modus vivendi with Mr. Maduro to continue working in the country after a quarter-century of his government’s rule.
Ms. Machado’s economic advisers have argued that every dollar going into Venezuela was a dollar for Mr. Maduro, a radical stance that had alienated many members of Venezuela’s civil society working to improve living conditions in the country. Her message had increasingly begun to mirror the views of the diaspora and deviated from the realities of people who remained in Venezuela....
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66 comments:
Per that Cargill guy, we need to start feeding those people.
On Mark Halperin's 2 Way Tonight last night, 2 of the reporters (Marc Caputo and Michelle Caruso Cabrera) mentioned that after 20 years of "tough guy" rule, that Maria Corina Machado, who is very well spoken and elite, might not be right for the times. Venezuela will definitely be interesting to follow.
MCC knows her stuff.
Did he refuse to back her? It seems Trump is clear that he doesn’t think she has the respect in the country to be made the leader of it. There seems to be a time element implied.
I think the administration is worried that we definitely cannot be seen as imposing the next leader. Trying to learn from the setbacks in Iraq.
Plus they want to root out the deputy leaders who won’t now go with the new flow so the new leader has a smoother ride to legitimacy.
Be sure to watch TRIGGERnometry's videos on the subject.
Can she quash a junta?
Leland, I suspect that might be an "artificial stance" so that MCC does not get the "taint" of Trump "approval." If he is seen as opposing or at least cool towards her she is more likely to garner democrat support here.
Trump and his team are very wise here.
It will be a messy and occasionally violent few quarters in VZ, until we can get the infrastructure stabilized. If Machado is airdropped in now, she will be blamed, and targeted as a US puppet, never to gain legitimacy. Better to keep her in the wings until an election can be held.
This is the same philosophy as in Iran, where after the 12 day war, experts called on Israel and the US to take out Khamenei, and inject an interim leader. It would have ended in disaster.
She hasn't bought enough Trump crypto yet to be handed the reigns.
Mark - Get a job.
Mark, you stole the words out of my mouth ha ha. Perhaps she needs to promise to buy Trump bibles for all the country's school children?
She's a smart woman. And I think that there is a path for her to become the leader. The Trump team knows the path and will work through to that point.
They have an elected government. We have long since recognized Edmundo Gonzalez as the legitimate President. If we installed the other lady it would be perceived as yanqui meddling even by many who hated Maduro and are glad we got rid of him.
...since Trump's enemies oppose everything he says or does Trump's lack of support means every one of Trump's enemies will work tirelessly to support Machado...
Reverse psychology? NYeT serves as a viable foil.
Trump's doing her a favor, keeping his distance. She might not win a free election as a US puppet.
This only works with the tacit admission that Venezuela will be a US protectorate for a while.
Possibly forever.
Hassayamper said...
They have an elected government. We have long since recognized Edmundo Gonzalez as the legitimate President.
Bingo!
We let NYC vote, and look what happened.
After the Iraq war we threw out all of the existing Baathist governmental structure in favor of a naively hoped for, new democratic change. Huge mistake that is informing this direction of influencing the existing government to, instead, reform. Less purity and more practicality.
We're not giving a hard-earned country to some broad.
The Americans know they need someone tough to maintain order. The place has become used to being ruled by fear, and the people in power know little else.
Trump is determine to not repeat past mistakes, but there is a reason they happened. It's time to create a new understanding or revive an old one.
What Fred said. The deBathification of Iraq was a disaster. Of course the situation on the ground in Venezuela is very different from Iraq of 2003, however, it makes more sense to use evolutionary processes rather than revolutionary processes to transform Venezuela into a stable Democratic Republic open for business so that we can get our gasoline under $2 per gallon
"...Mr. Trump has not indicated if new elections will be held in Venezuela,..." That's funny - I wouldn't have thought it's actually up to President Trump - in fact, I heard yesterday that Venezuela's own constitution requires that elections be held within prescribed amounts of time when its leadership has been interrupted. Less than a couple of months, depending on the circumstances. But I guess that wasn't worth checking out when you're the NYT, and an opportunity to smear is presenting itself........
Huge mistake that is informing this direction of influencing the existing government to, instead, reform.
I have been reliably* informed that Trump has no plan and does not learn from history.
* Utterly unreliably, that is.
Its going to take years of work to get a substantial increase in oil production out of Venezuela. It really isn't about next years gasoline prices.
I agree with what Fred said at 8:02.
That means I have agreed with Howard twice this year.
Who wudda thunk it?
--- transform Venezuela into a stable Democratic Republic open for business so that we can get our gasoline under $2 per gallon [Howard]
And Beijing's over $20 per.
I agree with the commenters above who are speculating that the Trump Administration is trying to avoid the Mission Accomplished mistakes of Bush's OIF.
Not publicly backing Machado could be the only way to back her. Being Trump's choice could be the kiss of death. The Venezuelan people don't want an American viceroy.
Who knows? Maybe there's another Venezuelan Trump prefers but is not publicly backing we haven't heard about yet.
Bad Aggie. Don’t use pertinent facts when a narrative needs to be established.
Agree Mike, but I think Trump is mostly trying to show a light touch, which I think is appropriate. Hard touch if another Marxist tries to take over.
+1 Fred, Howard, Maynard. Except the impact of Venezuela production on oil prices is more than 5 years away. Instability may impact sooner but production will take years. It would take 2 to 3 years just to procure, fabricate, and install hardware if you knew today what you needed.
Hmmm. Ryan Saavedra reported last night: "Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who said that if the United States tried to back the opposition, it could further destabilize the country and require a more robust military presence inside the country. A classified C.I.A. intelligence analysis reflected that view."
FredSays said...
After the Iraq war we threw out all of the existing Baathist governmental structure in favor of a naively hoped for, new democratic change. Huge mistake that is informing this direction of influencing the existing government to, instead, reform. Less purity and more practicality.
This.
We need to change the top of the structure, not middle management.
Keep the bureaucracy running the trains on time. Bring stability which will bring investment.
It sounds like Machado wanted to bring her political tribe along and start handing out tribal spoils.
Trump has distanced himself from Machado for quite some time now. Just guessing, but I think he mistrusts the CIA. Can't imagine why.
If she's truly popular, isn't in better if she's the first elected head of state?
Mr. Trump has not indicated if new elections will be held in Venezuela, saying only that the United States was 'in charge' of the country.
It’s the return of the living neocon dead — has anyone checked Dick Cheney’s crypt lately?
Ignored in all of this is that Guyana, and the Stabroek oil field, is right next door off Guyana (and Venezuela and their Chinese friends were claiming large parts of it).
I don't pretend to know much about this aspect of things, but it seems like it might play a substantial role in what is going on.
I think the choice to let Rodriguez become the president is a wise one- let matters settle a bit and then force them to hold an open and honest election. Let's give it 6 months.
I would also like to add that I don't trust the Nobel committee and I am not convinced their endorsement of this woman is worth anything.
1: I can't see any reason why I would start trusting the "judgement" of either the CIA or the US State Department as to "who's qualified"
2: Ms. Machado’s unequivocal support of sanctions has destroyed her relations with Venezuela’s business elite, which are all corrupt scum who cut deals with the communist thug Maduro in order to stay rich. FIFY
Nice big picture comments from Wince (9:19) and Boatbuilder (9:23). "Venezuela" is more about China and Mexico than any news outlet sees fit to report yet.
We're still in the "Democrats create chaotic reaction to Trump" phase of the new paradigm. They cannot predict him, so they are forced into playing reactionary defense every time news is made:
1. Denounce it wildly and loudly (yelling "impeach him" is always appropriate at this point).
2. Create chaos (signs, marches, AI propaganda video and a lotta "yeah but..." statements on cable) <<< YOU ARE HERE
3. Try and divide MAGA (solicit quotes including "disappointed," "forever war," "America last" and etc.
4. Move on to cut their losses (this is best seen when a term widely seen suddenly disappears from Big Media use* like "insurrection," "emollients clause" and the recently deceased phrase "Epstein Files").
*Only dead-enders on blog comment sections continue to try (weakly) to keep the terms alive, thinking someday they will regain their magic power to scare people away from Trump.
Remember, she is the leader of her party, not the democratically elected and denied President. She was blocked from running by the judiciary. If Trump was to install a president it would have to be the guy - who's name I don't recall - that actually got the votes.
Trump has terrible judgement in people. Vance seems to be an exception. He also has history of disrepecting people who supported him 100 percent or being Idealogues. Trump loves ivy leaugers and business types.
Venezuela needs to have an election ASAP. And after we elect a new President, we need to get the hell out. But of course, we'll be there 10 years from now. Just waiting for Boots on the ground because of blah blah blah.
Agree with Yancey at 9:27a. She’s the rightful leader per their Constitution. It is practical, lawful, and based on previous results, should lead to an election of the Venezuelan’s preferred leader. Just make sure that leader is put into power.
Not even a mention of her husband ... or wife ... or significant other. Is that better?
This doesn't make sense. We're told all the time that all you have to do is kiss Trump's ass and you get whatever you want, and nobody has given Trump a nicer rhetorical massage than Machado. I guess the left is wrong again.
Agree with Yancey at 9:27a. She’s the rightful leader per their Constitution.
No she's not. She didn't run in the last election. Edmundo Gonzalez is the rightful victor of that election and has been recognized as such by most of the Western world.
To be fair, she didn't run because a Chavista judge forbade her from running. They have the same problem with leftist termites on the bench that we do. But she still needs to win an election before she takes the sash from Gonzalez. The last thing we need is to have an externally installed government that is perceived as the puppet of an American proconsul.
" We're told all the time that all you have to do is kiss Trump's ass and you get whatever you want"
Bullshit. People have been pointing out the grift for the last year, especially in terms of their crypto.
Hassayamper is correct. The US needs to work with Gonzalez.
Strongman governments rely on payoffs of opposition figures in proportion to how much trouble they could cause. That way the troublemakers are better off with the strongman than without him. That buys stability.
The biggest mistake the US has always made is forgetting to pay off the troublemakers so that they're better off with the new rulers than causing trouble.
Keeping the current power force in force gives time without chaos when things are stable and can be figured out and slowly changed.
RCOCEAN II said...
Trump has terrible judgement in people. Vance seems to be an exception.
This was true for Trump 1. This time he has done much better. Bessent, Sacks, Rubio, Vance, Miller, even Hegseth just to name a few.
“Iran has lost Venezuela, Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza. Not much is left. They have no electricity, no water, and their currency has lost 60% of its value. The regime’s days are numbered.”
They still have the DNC!
https://x.com/K_AminThaabet/status/2008351343912579558?s=20
"This doesn't make sense. We're told all the time that all you have to do is kiss Trump's ass and you get whatever you want"
Elise Stefanik says "Hi."
I thought Rubio was another one of Trump's terrible RINO picks. How refreshing to be so wrong. He has been the biggest and most pleasant surprise of the second Trump term. Effective, capable, extremely well-spoken, and firmly on the Right. I'm a fan, and if Vance stumbles -- or maybe even if he doesn't -- there's no one else I want in 2028.
Rubio has said he won't run against Vance. At this point I would probably prefer Rubio to Vance, but Rubio's stature is going to depend a lot on how Venezuela, Iran, Cuba, etc. play out. If even one of these regimes falls peacefully and becomes an ally, Vance should be the one who steps aside.
"Agree with Yancey at 9:27a. She’s the rightful leader per their Constitution."
No she's not. She didn't run in the last election. Edmundo Gonzalez is the rightful victor of that election
Hassayamper, are you talking about Machado? Because I think Leland, whom you quote as agreeing with Yancy, is talking about Rodriguez. (I hope I'm not getting either the Venezuelan players or the commenters herein mixed up.)
I took Leland's comment to mean that Delcy Rodriguez, newly sworn in as president in accordance with the Venezuelan constitution, is the right solution for the immediate term, provided that she continues to follow the Venezuelan constitution and hold a free election within the required period. And then Gonzales, having been duly elected in an election the whole world (and especially the US) will be watching, can take his unquestioned place as president, not as a US puppet even in the eyes of the execrable UN, and Trump will have scrupulously followed the rule of law, even in a country whose laws don't apply to him... as usual.
These people voted for Communism in 1998. Trump needs to put a U.S. puppet to run the place for at least a decade.
It seems they have learned their lesson (at least a majority of them). It will be important to find a way for the millions of Venezuelan ex-pats to vote in whatever election is held.
Jamie, I believe you are correct. There was a lot of overlap between the two women in this thread, and I erroneously assumed Leland was talking about the Nobel prize lady, not the henchwoman of Maduro.
Her organic support inside Venezuela sounds like it is probably less than 10%, which is not surprising given her public remarks about the country especially since winning a Nobel War Prize.
Jamie read me right. I don’t like Delcy Rodriguez, but she’s not under indictment. With Maduro gone, Rodriguez is the next in the line of succession per Venezuela constitution and besides that fact, the other requirement to call an election makes her palatable for the interim. Trump has already stated a willingness to strike again if Rodriguez decides to FA.
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