From today's episode of the NYT "Daily" podcast. Audio and transcript here (at Podscribe).
June 3, 2025
"[P]robably the most alarming single state in the country for Democrats is looking at the Republican gains all along the border in south Texas."
"And the county that jumps out to me, there is Starr County. Starr County is the county that has moved the most in the entire country from 2012 to 2024. Hmm. This is a county that Barack Obama won overwhelmingly in 2012, and that Donald Trump won comfortably in 2024..... It's moved continuously in the Republican direction, and the sum of that movement is 89 percentage points. And what's interesting is Starr County isn't just this county that has moved the most, it also is the most predominantly Latino county in America. And it's not just shifting away from the Democratic party, it's stampeding away from the Democratic party. And while Starr County is this one small county in the Texas border, what you see is that same type of movement in counties with broad Latino populations, whether you're talking about the Bronx in New York City, Queens, Brooklyn, Philadelphia, places with diverse populations have moved steadily to the right, even in a lot of them, where Democrats are still winning, they're winning by less and by a lot less. I mean, to use like a fancy political science term, we're talking about racial depolarization.... For, for a long time, one of the most important markers of how a person was going to vote in America was what race are you?"
From today's episode of the NYT "Daily" podcast. Audio and transcript here (at Podscribe).
The guest is Shane Goldmacher, who wrote the NYT article "Six Months Later, Democrats Are Still Searching for the Path Forward" that we were talking about on May 27th, here.
From today's episode of the NYT "Daily" podcast. Audio and transcript here (at Podscribe).
Posts
70 comments:
Only one party is playing identity politics while interest in the once ubiquitous game fades quickly.
Criminals tend to assault and menace the people most like them. The most dangerous people to black people is themselves.
When I was growing up I hung out with the people I worked in the orchards with 30-40 years ago. The crime was bad even back then and it never got reported to the predominantly white police force.
As they integrate they go through the same transformation most people do as they learn and grow. They learned that DC politicians want their rich donors to have cheap labor and they use criminals to keep poor people in line.
They are working class people overwhelmingly. They are just being rational and this is only happening because the Republican Party is a working class party now.
"For, for a long time, one of the most important markers of how a person was going to vote in America was what race are you?"
With Democrats, it's always about race.
"this is only happening because the Republican Party is a working class party now."
That and also because the Democrat Party has gone batshit crazy.
Perhaps Latinos do not agree with white women that blacks are super special
Perhaps Latinos do not agree with white women that blacks are super special
The biggest mistake the progressive democrats that control the party have made, is assuming that established latin-american US citizens would passively welcome other latins (mostly non-mexican) coming into the US illegally. In fact, the opposite is true.
Democrats are all liars. They spread lies, they buy lies.
The Democrat Party trades in lies.
The liar democratic moron base are addicted to the lies.
The border is secure! The Corrupt liar Democrats and their Soviet-Democratic Media insisted!
There have been surveys asking Latino voters why they voted as they did. The main answer, I believe, is that they care most about the economy and trusted Trump more than the Democrats.
The left has repeatedly indicated they think illegal immigrants are useful for toilet scrubbing and lawn mowing. (Plus that little, false, concept that they will always vote D).
They ignore the legal immigrants. You know, the ones that legally vote.
They never give them credit for independent thought, or focusing on what is best for themselves and the country the have made their own.
I do NOT have the sadz.
I think the Democrats have worked hard to cultivate the Hispanic demographic into an analog of the black demographic. It won't work. Blacks have always been susceptible as a voting block to race pandering and grievance culture, probably as an artifact or holdover from slavery - a form of retribution, maybe. Hispanics don't have this. They're a laborer class in many ways, and their culture is rooted in hard work. And it's strongly catholic, which is duty-bound. I've never understood the Democrat gambit with Hispanics. For a while, the Valley voted strongly blue and most of that, I think, was poverty-related, the voting trends tied to the welfare state. But not welfare for the lazy, not gaming the system; welfare for food assistance, for the impoverished. I'm not surprised that Trump took the Valley this time, but I am surprised at the extent of the swing.
Pedo-Dems also find Immigrant children useful.
"There have been surveys asking Latino voters why they voted as they did. The main answer, I believe, is that they care most about the economy and trusted Trump more than the Democrats."
I'm just barely old enough to remember Cesar Chavez calling illegal immigrants "scabs" and "wetbacks."
I've witnessed Denver's/Commerce City's back-side when I visit some of the trade showrooms. I've seen the illegals, the buses, the hotels where they are staying - at tax payer expense. The lines of people queued up for their daily stuff.
Meanwhile - legal citizens who happen to be Hispanic (and everyone else with eyeballs) - are working hard to support their families. During Authoritarian Barisma Joe Regime, and Chi-Com Fauci Virus - life is not the same. We all rememeber what life was life prior to Crook Joe and Chi-Com Fauci Virus/shut-downs and forced jabs... and no work.... While Gavin enjoyed a nice night out on the town.
Now add black men, and the GOP can solidify its majority. But don't count on it: working class judges by results, not ideology (though Dem cuture war helps by antagonizing normies). Trump better deliver.
We're starting to see a different divide in the electorate, where the more reliable guide to how you vote is not your race, education, or income, but your mental health.
<a href="https://x.com/avidseries/status/1929627543046705296>Not a joke</a>.
Until we left California a few years ago, we lived in Latino-majority areas for many years, so I'm confident in saying that the Democrats have sealed their doom by importing millions of future Republican voters. Culturally, they are completely the opposite of today's Democrats: hard-working, entrepreneurial, family-loving, male-dominated, respectful of religions, heterosexual, and (once established here) very dedicated to police and military service (Marines especially).
Thanks, Joe. Thanks, Barack. You big dummies.
Aggie, ref Hispanics v blacks: Also, Hispanics assimilate, by definition. Within two generations, they're intermarried and English-speaking. Black Americans resist cultural assimilation, even at the highest socioeconomic levels (see eg Jack n Jill and HBCU/NPHS vs the absence of Hibernian Societies or KofC in the boardrooms), and really resist intermarriage.
So today's Hispanics aren't the Hispanics of 20 years ago, or 20 years from now. While Black Americans keep the long line going.
JSM
Also, with the exception of Latinos who've always been in the Southwest even before it was the US, Latino immigrants, like all immigrants, leave the old country and its issues behind. For Black Americans, this is the old country.
JSM
Democrats are not searching for the way forward!
They have seen the sign post, ignored it, screamed at it, gnashed their teeth at it, cut it down, thrown molotov cocktails at it, accused it of cultural appropriation, cut of it's genitals, tried to make child pornography with it, and accused the wood and metal components of genocide.
Oh and they also trambled and destroyed the grass and plants around it but its ok! Because only everyone else but them can cause climate change!
I have no confidence that the GOP can keep the gains that Trump has made.
Planetgeo: "Thanks, Joe. Thanks, Barack. You big dummies."
Were you saying that in your Fred Sanford voice?
JSM
I believe anlm all the Latinx voters remain loyal to the Democrats.
When in Florida I like to stop into those stands that sell local produce and they are almost always run by Hispanics, and once there was a TV on showing news in Spanish and the story was about the violence and chaos at the southern border. Nobody likes violence, nobody likes chaos. It’s just something that the Democrats use to maintain power, and Hispanics can’t be lied to about real conditions on the border the way rich liberals can.
Intermarriage rates in the US:
1. Native American (58%)
2. Asian (28%, higher for U.S.-born)
3. Hispanic (27%, higher for U.S.-born)
4. Black (18%)
5. White (11%)
6. Indian from India (likely lower than Asians overall, but specific data lacking)
7. Arab (data insufficient, likely low)
JSM, your "two generation rule" for assimilation of Latinos is spot on. Ditto your observation about black Americans hanging on to old issues. We'll be lucky if a "ten generation rule" gets them to finally assimilate.
Perhaps people living near the border want border enforcement.
I seem to recall several years ago reading something by Steve Sailer that basically said, "The political establishment assumes that Latinos will always be Democrats because they will identify as "under-represented minorities". But they will feel disrespected if the Democratic Party continues to treat blacks as the most important URM, the only ones really worth listening to."
Whatever you think about the guy, he's not stupid.
Money Manger said...
"The biggest mistake the progressive democrats that control the party have made, is assuming that established latin-american US citizens would passively welcome other latins (mostly non-mexican) coming into the US illegally. In fact, the opposite is true."
I was a little kid when I heard "We paisanos gotta stick together." Even at that young age it was apparent that the older boy was just saying that to get me to do something shady.
Yeah OK. So what? Guess the D's need a new marketing strategy. Fool the rubes by being more reasonable. Then when you get into power, drop the mask.
Lots of Hispanics dont want open borders. Why would they? If they wanted to live in Mexico, they'd have stayed there. Plus, the liberal/left elite provides them nothing except handouts, which the R's are willing to do.
I have Japanese heritage, and I wonder about all the left leaning Asians out there. The democrat party policies are completely opposed to that ways we live our personal lives. When is the "Great Discovery" for my group?
Guess what happens to Hispanics?
1) Guy start their own business. They are now the small businessmen doing construction, auto repair, or lawn service. Remember the guy who OWNS a lawn service company is a business owner. He's paying estimated taxes. He's seeing gas prices go up. He's not getting welfare. He's nervous about California making him buy an electric vehicle.
2) They also "graduate" to professional and white collar jobs.
3) They have normal families and might even be religious - the trans stuff scares them like it scares many other parents.
Also, nobody wants criminals in their neighborhood.
Imagine you're white. A bunch of illegal Russian gangsters move next door. They sell drugs and do violence.
WHY AREN'T YOU HAPPY? THEY'RE WHITE LIKE YOU!
C'mon. Nobody wants rapists and ne'erdowells and shit around their families.
The main answer, I believe, is that they care most about the economy and trusted Trump more than the Democrats.
@Althouse, that may be true across the entire country, but Starr County’s southwest border is the Rio Grande and counties like that have borne the brunt of the crime wave that came along with the Democrats’ open borders policy. The Democrats’ subsequent embrace of Hispanic gangs and general pro-crime, anti-law and order policies must especially rankle.
PS: Look for the Left to discover that Hispanics — like Asians! — are actually white after all in 3 … 2 … 1
This may also have something to do with the upsurge in political party movement:
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/these-are-us-cities-gaining-and-losing-most-corporate-hqs
When a business redomesticates, it's a fairly big eff'n deal and, I daresay, it's clear evidence of the massive dissatisfaction with the economic business climate in the departure state.
Ann Althouse said..."There have been surveys asking Latino voters why they voted as they did. The main answer, I believe, is that they care most about the economy and trusted Trump more than the Democrats."
I agree with Big Mike above. It's been reported that Latino citizens (i.e. the ones who vote) are not so keen on illegal immigration. I have a Mexican son-in-law, naturalized citizen, who is adamant on the subject. I suspect the media polls prefer to downplay that motivation.
NYT and Democrats dividing people by race and stereotyping how they will vote. They’ll never change.
Number of my acquaintances would fit category AWFL. These mind-controlled ladies were on repeat-mode throughout Fall 2024, exhorting me to vote for Harris, inserting Harris into every conversation, in manner of "greetings, sure is raining, Harris will have well-qualified aides to help her govern, what's for dinner?". No wonder working class folks, Hispanic and Black people, men in overwhelming numbers, voted for Trump.
Also noteworthy, but not as devastating for the Democrats due to their smaller numbers, is the decided shift to Republicans among Native Americans. One of my college classmates I keep in touch with is a full-blooded Indian of left wing orientation. I taunted him about the rightwards shift of 40-odd points in the exit polls for native people last year, and he just buried his head in his hands in despair.
I have no confidence that the GOP can keep the gains that Trump has made.
Correct. The RINO captives of the moneybags big-business donors offer nothing to the working class in general and the Hispanic population in particular. They disgust me almost as much as Democrats.
Lots of good takes here concerning Hispanics. I would guess there are not many Latinos in South Texas as Latinos are not necessarily Spanish language specific. Haitians and Brazilians are considered Latinos but not Hispanic. My Hispanic friends do not like to be called Latinos, they tolerate it but prefer to be called Hispanic. If asked though, they just want to be called Americans. I grew up in South Texas and this shift does not surprise me. The Democrats have been using Hispanics for decades. See the 1940s Democrats, LBJ, etc.
Another point I didn't see anyone make- the vast majority of Hispanics/Latino are Caucasian. And because of the USA's admixture of tribes, Americans don't have any particular look as they do in, let's say, Europe. In Great Britain, Scots and English and Welsh and Irish can all tell which one someone else is pretty reliably by looking at them. (I am all of the above.) To us- they're all white. Same in France with their different regions, and Italy and Spain. And- they don't often mix and intermarry.
Yet- they can all identify Americans. Maybe not at first glance- but by behavior. We smile at everyone. Look them in the eyes. Initiate conversations. Don't defer to someone better dressed... We're Americans, obviously.
The whole point of allowing immigrants in in the past was- to make them Americans, without a hyphen.
Texas Republicans fail in move to curb renewable energy projects ~ FT
Other than the obvious possibility of corruption by vested interests, what exactly are the arguments for Texas with it’s obvious advantages of land, sunshine and reliable wind, not to embrace energy security through a mix of renewable and fossil energy? That this is somehow a left/right divide is baffling.
Regardless of global warming, there are commercial reasons for renewables. They provide agility and add resilience and leverage to energy intensive projects. It's good that enough people recognize it — after all Texas is one of the strongest states in economic terms for a reason.
Pragmatism > ideology. Well done, Texans!
A major factor moving Hispanics rightward is their economic pattern. They save for years in order to be able to make a cash down payment on a restaurant, grocery, or implements for a landscaping business etc. The whole family puts in their paycheck from work, their part-time work, and their social security in one bank account; then they take it out at a predetermined amount and by a business;then the whole family works in the business. Many of these businesses were ruined by the continued Covid lockdown and restrictions on socializing. Other were ruined by "gig" laws which made it difficult for a small business to get workers without ruinous expenses and difficult for workers to simply go out and work in order to build their savings. How do you suppose those people feel when five years of work goes down the drain for a false public health issue or a California law. Adding insult to injury, the Dems don't even discuss the issue. They don't think that there is a way up in America. So they don't know that they ruined a lot of Hispanics who were climbing the ladder of success by hard work and saving. But, naturally, the Hispanics know and are moving away from a party that knows nothing about them and thinks it knows everything when it notices a skin color.
what exactly are the arguments for Texas with it’s obvious advantages of land, sunshine and reliable wind, not to embrace energy security through a mix of renewable and fossil energy?
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/texas-goes-green-how-oil-country-became-the-renewable-energy-leader
Kak continues to prove he knows absolutely nothing about the subject matter he writes about that he gets it exactly backwards.
FYI TSLA dropped like I predicted last week by 20 points, but it is up 5 today. Still 125 points above the 221 I paid per share in April.
Democrats remind me of the old 'frog in the boiling pot' scenario. They're always the last ones to realize what's happening. And in this case, they are so far away from reality in searching for an answer, they may have to fully implode before they reform and find themselves.
I may be gone before that happens though. They're so chock full of socialists, with more coming up from our universities to fill in for those one-day-possibly-retiring Democrats. I mean, once Pelosi and Schumer are gone, they'll be replaced by even further left power seekers. So...this could be a long slog for Democrats.
One can hope.
Leland said:
"Rich/sockpuppet/Kakahead continues to prove he knows absolutely nothing about the subject matter he writes about that he gets it exactly backwards."
Everything he types is done with autopen.
Trump has wrong focus. Forget Boers. Bring in Chicanos.
gospace: " they can all identify Americans. Maybe not at first glance- but by behavior. "
It's the way we walk. Pick a foreign person, then pick an American of the same ethnicity, sex, height, weight, etc. Dress them the same. Have both walk down the street (separately, of course, and don't tell them you're evaluating their walk, natch). Their walks will be very different.
Americans kind of swagger when we walk. Definitely more than Europeans, but less than Africans. Comes from being free. In some parts of the world, walking like we do can get you killed for being uppity.
And American women walk like American men. You can definitely tell a Polish woman born and raised there from a 100-percent Polish-ethnicity Chicago woman, for example.
JSM
Eva Marie: ref intermarriage - "Indian from India (likely lower than Asians overall, but specific data lacking)":
There was a cool documentary on PBS, called Meet the Patels, by Ravi Patel, a Gujarati-American comic who broke up with his redhead girlfriend and decided to take up his parents' offer to fix him up through the Indian matchmaking system. The goal was to find, not only an Indian girl, but a Patel! (Not as incest-y as it sounds; Patel is a caste name held by millions of Gujaratis, but it certainly narrows things down.) The system has been updated from aunties gossiping with each other: now there are apps and conventions. Nobody forces the marriages; sometimes the guy has no interest, sometimes the girl.
After driving and flying around the US and Canada for almost a year, Ravi gives up and gets back together with the redhead, and his parents react with "oh, why didn't you say so!?"
Pretty cool.
Anyway, that may be why the Indian-American intermarriage rate is unmeasurable - everyone's at the matchmaking convention?
JSM
Why would you support and want executive power vested in a party that 6 months after losing still can't figure out what it should do, what it should stand for, and how to win.
6 months means it's leaderless and can't formulate cohesive leadership by consensus. It's not a party, it's just a bunch of people who identify with each other...which somehow seems on point for the Democrats.
Emigration reform to mitigate progress at both ends of the bridge and throughout, and collateral damage.
Kak with his standard non-sequitur.
Original Mike said (yes, I am quoting myself)…"It's been reported that Latino citizens (i.e. the ones who vote) are not so keen on illegal immigration. I have a Mexican son-in-law, naturalized citizen, who is adamant on the subject."
Said son-in-law would have called himself a democrat in the past. In 2024, he voted for Trump. He was rather apologetic about it. Democrat tribal identity is strong, but it's slipping.
Good work, dems!
It isn't rocket science. The Biden policy of open borders impacted the people of Starr county more than most other places. And guess what? They are Americans first, not Latinos first. They are on the front line when it comes to illegal immigration.
Soon the Democrats will discover that many, if not most, Hispanics self-identify as white. Depending on how the question is asked, a solid majority do.
Regardless of global warming, there are commercial reasons for renewables. They provide agility and add resilience and leverage to energy intensive projects.
They do neither for the grid. Once "renewables" get to where they can provide 20%+ to the grid, they introduce instability into the grid. And wind generators introduce frequency instability immediately when grid tied- because they do not run at a constant speed. With shipboard generators with old fashioned mechanical RPM controls we had to keep the generators running at 3600±1 RPM. We did it by regulating fuel flow. Generator went down- fuel went up, and vice versa. A steady 24 MPH wind is not steady. Could vary from 23.5 to 24.5- or even more. Which means to keep frequency control- load has to be suddenly increased or decreased. Which means somewhere else on the grid- a powered spinning generator needs to decrease or increase energy output- while maintaining constant speed to keep the grid stable. The recent nationwide power outage in Spain happened because solar was suddenly providing 100% of the power- and the spinning generators weren't providing frequency control because they weren't providing power...
"Free" wind power causes doubling or more of capital expenditures- which increases costs to the consumer since they are ultimately paying for it. Let's say you're on a small isolated grid requiring 10 MW of power. You put up wind turbines that can provide 10 MW in a 25 MPH wind. How many MW of fuel powered generators do you need? Answer- 10 MW, because sometimes, the wind doesn't blow. So- batteries! Add batteries! So size the battery banks to proved 50% of the power needs for 4 days. How much installed fuel powered generators do you need? 10 MW.
The, there's problem 2. What do you do if the wind is blowing at 50 MPH? Those wind turbines are now generating 80 MW- with no place to go...
..."They provide agility and add resilience and leverage to energy intensive projects...."
That is a beautiful case of taking the worst weakness of alternative power generation, and presenting it as if it were a value-adding feature. The grid depends on constancy, consistency, and reliability. All of these must be structured so that whenever you plug in your device, wherever it might be, the gird will deliver 120 v / 60 Hz. Generators run at a steady RPM to accomplish this. Wind turbines vary their speed constantly, and solar power output is influenced by available captured light and ambient temperature. They're great if you're living off grid. They're horrible if you're supplying power to a grid serving millions - because they're constantly variable.
"...They provide agility and add resilience and leverage to energy intensive projects...."
Where did Kaka get that shit? It is so utterly and completely wrong.
Kakistocracy said...
Regardless of global warming, there are commercial reasons for renewables. They provide agility and add resilience and leverage to energy intensive projects. It's good that enough people recognize it — after all Texas is one of the strongest states in economic terms for a reason.
Pragmatism > ideology. Well done, Texans!
Nobody who understands how an Alternating current electrical energy grid works will say wind and solar are "agile" or resilient.
You are just completely ignorant of how an energy grid works and you are a moron for posting something this stupid in ignorance.
The electrical grid design we currently use requires consistent and absolutely predictable generation of electricity. Cloudy days and days with no wind fuck every thing up. When a grid cannot match the draw it collapses as Europe is finding out.
Nuclear Power is the near future. Solar only becomes useful when we fix our energy storage issues or we move to space where there are no clouds and solar radiation is predictable.
Hispanics don't seem to think the mutilating their children, allowing a bunch of gangbangers into their community to murder, kill, rape them, undercut their neighbors livelihoods, overwhelm the services they work their arse off to fund and allowing men to beat the hell out of their daughters is sport is a good deal.
Hmm...that's not what the democrats told me about latinx. :)
"john mosby said...
Aggie, ref Hispanics v blacks: Also, Hispanics assimilate, by definition. Within two generations, they're intermarried and English-speaking. Black Americans resist cultural assimilation, even at the highest socioeconomic levels (see eg Jack n Jill and HBCU/NPHS vs the absence of Hibernian Societies or KofC in the boardrooms), and really resist intermarriage."
Very sad for black people and true. They are literally their own worst enemies. The BEST thing we can do for them is to get rid of all color-this/that/theother crapola. You are americans, act like it and you will prosper. Keep acting like you are now and you NEVER will. Because sooner or later the gravy train WILL be cut off. If liberal white women will not do it, the hispanics will.
"Gospace said...
Regardless of global warming, there are commercial reasons for renewables. They provide agility and add resilience and leverage to energy intensive projects.
They do neither for the grid. Once "renewables" get to where they can provide 20%+ to the grid, they introduce instability into the grid"
Interesting discussion. I live in south texas and their are wind turbines everywhere. I despise them, they are a blight on the environment. At any given time even during the hottest part of the day I can see 10-30% turned off.
So how much battery backup is required to actually make wind work? It would seem that say, if every turbine were required to have x amount of battery backup, some of the instabilities would be solved. I understand cost and all, just thinking engineering.
"So how much battery backup is required to actually make wind work? It would seem that say, if every turbine were required to have x amount of battery backup, some of the instabilities would be solved."
Renewable proponents shy away from making such battery calculations, but they have been made (The Manhattan Contrarian is a good source) and the numbers are huge. Unobtainable in the foreseeable future (wonder why the proponents avoid making these calculations?). And batteries do NOT contribute one iota to grid stability. It's not a matter of energy production, it's a matter of synchronization.
Kaka's comment has to be one of his stupidest ever.
"The political establishment assumes that Latinos will always be Democrats because they will identify as "under-represented minorities". But they will feel disrespected if the Democratic Party continues to treat blacks as the most important URM, the only ones really worth listening to."
One reason Black enthusiasm for Biden and the Democrats fell off was because African-Americans felt that the Biden Team was trying to replace them with the illegals. That's not going to translate into votes for Republicans, but it will have unexpected results at the local level. If you've been protesting against Chicago's mayor for filling up your neighborhood with illegals, you would have to be more than usually crazy to vote for him again.
An observation made years ago was that Asians were the new Jews and Latinos were the new Italians. Like Italian-Americans, Latinos can be entrepreneurial and aren't wedded to the Democratic Party.
Illegals.
Post a Comment
Please use the comments forum to respond to the post. Don't fight with each other. Be substantive... or interesting... or funny. Comments should go up immediately... unless you're commenting on a post older than 2 days. Then you have to wait for us to moderate you through. It's also possible to get shunted into spam by the machine. We try to keep an eye on that and release the miscaught good stuff. We do delete some comments, but not for viewpoint... for bad faith.