Althouse: In case you'd like to comment on Trump's Madison Square Garden rally...

October 27, 2024

In case you'd like to comment on Trump's Madison Square Garden rally...

... here's the live feed:

213 comments:

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Ann Althouse said...: How about Polymarket? Some folks like that. Trump is up by 31 points over Harris right now. 63 to 32.; 10/28/24, 5:06 AM
Christopher B said...: It's a bit of a long read but here's Sean Trende's analysis of the 2022-2023 elections Part I and Part II

TL;DR is the results were nowhere near as bad for GOP as most Democrats like to think, and he admits that making claims of large gains based on the fundamentals of the election like Biden's unpopularity ignored the lack of competitive seats to be gained.

Here's Nate Silver on the "GOP polls flood the zone" bullshit

But that’s only one piece of the puzzle. These polls might be more favorable to Republicans than nonpartisan polls, but that isn’t a good way to tell whether they’re moving polling averages. For the flooding-the-zone theory to hold water (pun somewhat intended), polling averages and forecasts would have to just toss these polls in the average without any adjustment. But that isn’t happening. Here at Silver Bulletin, for example, we weight polls based on pollster quality and adjust them based on pollsters’ house effects. And every other high-quality polling average does something similar.

What’s the result? The polling averages say pretty much the same thing, regardless of which polls they choose to include or exclude. Nationally and in the battleground states, the biggest difference in Harris-Trump margin between the Silver Bulletin average and averages from 538, Split Ticket, The New York Times, and VoteHub is 0.5 points. In Pennsylvania — the likeliest tipping point state — our average is Harris +0.6. Split Ticket has the race as Harris +1, 538 has it as Harris +0.7, VoteHub has it as Harris +0.7, and The New York Times has Harris up by less than 1 point.; 10/28/24, 5:07 AM
Christopher B said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 10/28/24, 5:13 AM
Christopher B said...: Nate Silver on that GOP polls flooding the zone BS.

But that’s only one piece of the puzzle. These polls might be more favorable to Republicans than nonpartisan polls, but that isn’t a good way to tell whether they’re moving polling averages. For the flooding-the-zone theory to hold water (pun somewhat intended), polling averages and forecasts would have to just toss these polls in the average without any adjustment. But that isn’t happening. Here at Silver Bulletin, for example, we weight polls based on pollster quality and adjust them based on pollsters’ house effects. And every other high-quality polling average does something similar.

What’s the result? The polling averages say pretty much the same thing, regardless of which polls they choose to include or exclude. Nationally and in the battleground states, the biggest difference in Harris-Trump margin between the Silver Bulletin average and averages from 538, Split Ticket, The New York Times, and VoteHub is 0.5 points. In Pennsylvania — the likeliest tipping point state — our average is Harris +0.6. Split Ticket has the race as Harris +1, 538 has it as Harris +0.7, VoteHub has it as Harris +0.7, and The New York Times has Harris up by less than 1 point.; 10/28/24, 5:15 AM
Mr. Forward said...: I don't know why Inga is worried. Democrats still have the edge in late voting.; 10/28/24, 5:35 AM
Ralph L said...: Didn't Rose Kennedy have speech problems in old age, or am I thinking of Katherine Hepburn?; 10/28/24, 5:36 AM
Would You Like Fascism With That Hat said...: That's a first. The Trump campaign disassociating itself from remarks too fascist in tone, even for them. It will be interesting to see how it ends up affecting the outcome in states like Pennsylvania who have a sizable Puerto Rican electorate. Which of course, is the real reason for the panicked response.; 10/28/24, 5:48 AM
Would You Like Fascism With That Hat said...: Wow -- the Republican base might actually have second thoughts if any of them knew that Puerto Ricans are American citizens.; 10/28/24, 5:52 AM
Mike (MJB Wolf) said...: My favorite take was on X, three photos with the caption "Weirdest nazi rally ever, featuring Jewish, Black and Hindu speakers."; 10/28/24, 5:58 AM
Would You Like Fascism With That Hat said...: In other words, we spent our weekends building the world’s most elaborate coin-flipping machine.; 10/28/24, 6:00 AM
Mike (MJB Wolf) said...: He's creating new swing states.; 10/28/24, 6:03 AM
BUMBLE BEE said...: Now, that's a fact check!; 10/28/24, 6:07 AM
Mike (MJB Wolf) said...: Don't forget the Democrats had their DNC "Klan-bake" rally and nominating convention there in 1924. They were more open about their racism back then.; 10/28/24, 6:11 AM