October 1, 2024

"Donald Trump is gaining on Kamala Harris in the polls. I have some theories why."

It's Robert Reich in The Guardian.

Theories rejected by Reich: 1. The polls are skewed against Harris, 2. Media make it look close for ratings, 3. Voters think Trump is better on economic matters.

Theories Reich entertains: 1. Voters know all about Trump and don't know much about Harris (Trump is "the devil they know"), 2... oh! #1 is the only theory he likes. The rest is just inferring that Trump, who can't change and is know, is working to prevent Harris from becoming more known. 

Trump's methods for keeping us from learning more about Harris: 1. Declining to debate her again. 2. Creating chaos (and thereby turning people away from politics), and 3. Running ads that provide negative information about Harris (e.g., pointing out that she supported "gender transition surgery for incarcerated people").

If Reich has the right theory for why Harris is falling behind, why doesn't he call on her to make herself better known? She could do serious interviews and press conferences instead of lightweight fluff. The sensible presumption is that she is choosing to avoid revealing depth and substance. It is, in fact, rational to guess that she and her advisers have determined that the pure state of being NOT TRUMP is her best option. People wouldn't like what she'd reveal if she laid her cards on the table. To blame Trump for her predicament is to conceive of her as a passive, ineffectual person, which is to say utterly unsuited to the presidency.

My bet is that Reich knows all that but is just making another column out of how much he hates Trump.

100 comments:

Democratic Paychecks for Perks/ Dems for Demolition of Democracy/ fake-cares 4-U said...

Robert 3rd Reich.

mongo said...

I have asked several friends what it is about Harris that they like. Overwhelmingly, it's that she isn't Trump. Their hatred for him is off the charts. It's feelings all the way down.

Dave Begley said...

Ann nails it. Harris is not Trump. That's all she's got. And she can't do interviews because she is too damn stupid.

narciso said...

Shes as fake as a three dollar bill

tim maguire said...

If Reich has the right theory for why Harris is falling behind, why doesn't he call on her to make herself better known?

Does there ever come a point where Harris' supporters get tired of being insulted by people like Reich, who keep writing articles like this where they take Harris' passive helplessness as an unalterable fact?

Would Reich write something like this about a man?

narciso said...

They want to freeze and starve in the dark

Gusty Winds said...

Who's a bigger lying beta-male douchebag. Robert Reich or Paul Krugman?

Kate said...

So it turns out that the predictable one is Trump.

n.n said...

Reich is grousing and grooming to transition a captive audience to a novel green administration.

Narayanan said...

Kamala also a woman Reich can look up to
That is absolutely incorrect," Kamala immediately responds, to which Katie bursts out laughing. "I am 5'4" and a quarter," the VP continues.

"OK, and I'm 5'3,"" Katie chimes in.

Although Reich was drafted to serve in the Vietnam War, he did not pass the physical examination; due to his dysplasia condition, Reich is only 4 feet 11 inches (1.50 m) tall, shorter than the required minimum height of 5 ft 0 in (1.52 m)

Curious George said...

Yes.

Dave Begley said...

WH said this AM that Iran is preparing to shoot missiles at Israel. This is all on Biden-Harris. What fuck ups! Tonight JD Vance will destroy Tampon Tim. Epic! Historic!

Howard (not that Howard) said...

What a maroon. Zero insight in this column. Not worth the paper it's printed on.

NorthOfTheOneOhOne said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
NorthOfTheOneOhOne said...

Trump's methods for keeping us from learning more about Harris: 1. Declining to debate her again...

Why would Trump debate Harris when she hasn't made her policy vision known? There's nothing to debate! I would love to hear Reich's rebuttal of that, I'm sure it would be the finest in overeducated shithead tortured logic you ever saw.

If Reich has the right theory for why Harris is falling behind, why doesn't he call on her to make herself better known?

Because that would be about the worst thing one "elite" could do to another and would result in him being ostracized by his political tribe.

Big Mike said...

My theory is that Harris is kind of like Hillary Clinton — the more the voters see of her the less they like her.

narciso said...

When has reich brought any insight

mindnumbrobot said...

My bet is that Reich knows all that but is just making another column out of how much he hates Trump.

And then cashing his check for another cookie-cutter Orange Man Bad article. Trump is good for business.

Yancey Ward said...

"If only there were a way for Harris to let the public know her and her policy proposals better!"

That is the short version of Reich's idiotic essay.

Duke Dan said...

Just wait until the post Helene failure polls come out. But the biggest problem there is how do you hold an election. In a town that was flooded away.

n.n said...

Kamala is, in principle, Pro-Choice (i.e. selective, opportunistic) and persons with diverse gender pronouns fear her choice(s) in the boardroom, at the border, in an American Spring, taking a knee for her progress.

RideSpaceMountain said...

What is it with lefties like Reich and AOC and economics? They're terrible economists and they know it. They give economists a bad name, which considering economists are already largely unpopular is saying something.

Nobody invites economists to parties. Where do these people come up with the thinking that being one wins popularity contests?

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

Yes let's bring in Robby Reishhhhhhhhhhhhhhh for some comic relief.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

Good to know. Very few non-leftists are motivated by hatred, so it's a limited pool she can draw from. By definition if you're Independent or Republican you are generally not that way, although (cough cough Bill Kristol) there are some. Most have self-identified and publicly proclaimed for Harris.

Iman said...

They’re ALWAYS after his Lucky Charms…

Jupiter said...

Althouse, pay no attention to the little man behind the Guardian.

Big Mike said...

Reich was born to a Jewish family, though I don’t know whether he is still observant or even still regards himself as Jewish. Still, I do not understand why any Jew supports a party that in turn supports people who run around yelling “Desth to the Jews.” In the 1930s there were German Jews who told themselves that “Hitler foesn’t really mean it.” Ninety years later they should know better.

Iman said...

His turn as Kramer’s buddy “Mickey” on Seinfeld was entertaining, but it’s shitbirds all the way down ever since.

Achilles said...

Trump was always up 60% to 40%.

The polls are just retracing to that like they always do in October. Kamala was never popular or winning in any honest poll.

Tofu King said...

You didn't mention his stated suspicion (without facts) that it's because she is female and black.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

Wow numbers 2 and 3 of his rejected theories are pretty solidly true. I agree with those above who said Althouse nailed it with her summation sentence.

Achilles said...

For fun ask them what they don't like about Trump.

wendybar said...

Nobody knows what Kamala stands for besides abortion, gun control and illegal immigration. She is full of fluff. And cackles which turn off most people. Just what the hell does she find so funny all the time?? It's mindboggling and embarrassing to be a woman if THAT gets into the Presidency.

RideSpaceMountain said...

"The Bolsheviks thus appealed to the Jews from the very first hours of their takeover, offering to some executive positions, to others tasks of execution within the Soviet State apparatus. And many, many, answered the call." - Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn (Two Hundred Years Together)

It isn't just Nazism. There's something about socialism in general that is highly appealing to the diaspora, wherever it may be found.

PM said...

Just a face-slap for the troops. Somebody must've banged on his door in Hobbiton.

mindnumbrobot said...

Isn't it interesting that Trump and his supports are constantly accused of spreading hate, while hate is the only reason Democrats have in voting for Harris.

planetgeo said...

Thus the persistent anger...can't even ride Space Mountain.

tommyesq said...

Reich seems to contradict himself. He says both that Trump is trying to keep people from learning more about Harris while also saying that Trump is educating people about Harris (e.g., her support for inmates to receive sex reassignment surgery, to be paid for by you and me). He also ignores the "Trump is better on the economy" pretty glibly, given that Trump has a huge edge over Harris on the economy and people historically have voted primarily on the economy.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

Somehow Abraham Lincoln managed to let Americans know his policy positions. It does puzzle the mind contemplating how inept Harris is at this a mere 164 years later!

MadTownGuy said...

Robert Reich earnestly desires to be Truth and Reconciliation Czar.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

Yes and Trump is both a dumbshit con artist and an evil genius manipulating all the media. It's a floor wax and a dessert topping!

Democratic Paychecks for Perks/ Dems for Demolition of Democracy/ fake-cares 4-U said...

Code: My daughter stands to make a lot of money doing nothing - in some fake-photo-op job, given to her by the Harris admin.

Ann Althouse said...

"You didn't mention his stated suspicion (without facts) that it's because she is female and black."

Thanks. I saw it but didn't mention it because of the way he folded it under the "information asymmetry" theory rather than stating it as an independent theory, which it would need to be, if read him literally and try to make sense of it.

He says: "Behind the information asymmetry lie racism and misogyny. I can’t help wondering how many Americans who continue saying they “don’t know” or are “undecided” about Harris are concealing something from pollsters and possibly from themselves: they feel uncomfortable voting for a Black woman.""

That's not "Behind the information asymmetry"! That's saying it's not about information asymmetry but something else.

So he didn't state it as a separate theory, and I found it tedious to include it, even though it is an insulting suspicion. Reich's contempt for the millions of Americans who like Trump is off the charts.

They’re eating the cats — They’re eating the dogs said...

AARP Poll: Harris Has Narrow Lead Over Trump Among Pennsylvania Voters
https://www.aarp.org/politics-society/government-elections/info-2024/pennsylvania-harris-trump-poll.html

The AARP poll has consistently produced results slightly better for Trump than most public polls in the states they surveyed -- so this +2 Harris lead in likely the most critical state of all, with a cavernous advantage among women, is a relatively good result for her. The age cross-tabs are credible.

Aggie said...

Once again, the one-third Reich doesn't measure up.

TrespassersW said...

The correct question to ask here is: Why would anyone take Reich's opinion about anything seriously? He's demonstrated time and time again that he's a disingenuous Democrat hack.

Xmas said...

If the longshoreman strike lasts more than a few days, Harris is going to be in deep trouble. East Coast harbors no longer unloading freight will hit really hard, really fast in the battleground states east of the Mississippi.

hombre said...

"My bet is that Reich knows all that but is just making another column out of how much he hates Trump." He hates everybody who is not a socialist/Democrat.

Kamala is lagging because people are coming to know her.

mccullough said...

Trump has always been ahead. Biden quit knowing he would lose and Kamala would lose. The Dems know they are going to lose.

Skeptical Voter said...

Lightweight, passive and ineffectual are some of the best things you can say about Kamala. She's running as an agent of change and joy, but it's hard to wash the Biden stink off her.

n.n said...

If he is gaining in prospective... in the polls, that means he is ahead in practice... in fact.

Skeptical Voter said...

I may be repeating myself here. Lightweight, passive and ineffectual are three of the best things you can say about Kamala. You could say a lot worse. She's trying to wash the Biden years stink off her, and it doesn't seem to be working. I don't want to be heightist here, but once again Robert Reich comes up short.

NorthOfTheOneOhOne said...

She's got a worse problem now. Apparently Iran has launched a massive attack on Israel.

Michael K said...

Yes, and we even see it here.

n.n said...

Biden is resisting the former temptation to bribe them. Pethaps in an empathetic hattip to Democrats where democracy died in darkness with a knee to Harris.

wendybar said...

It's not just Reich. The whole Uniparty has contempt for the millions of Americans who like Trump. It's been obvious since before Trump....ask any Tea Partier.

Michael K said...

The real issue is what she, or anyone, can do about it. The strike is about inflation and the Iran thing is about Obama/Biden funding Iran.

n.n said...

The Semitic Spring progresses. Obama funded the Arab Spring through an Iranian proxy, Trump with Russian cooperation aborted it, Biden resumed and progressed Obama's foreign policy in Hamasidal proxies of Iran. History rhymes.

Dogma and Pony Show said...

Reich is such a propagandist. How would the fact that people still haven't gotten to know KH explain the fact that Trump is currently GAINING in the polls? It would only make sense, even hypothetically, if people were somehow losing the knowledge they had previously acquired about her. Obviously, a better explanation for what is happening is that, despite all concerted attempts to keep people from learning more about who she really is, that information is seeping out, causing Trump to gain in the polls.

Robert Cook said...

"I have asked several friends what it is about Harris that they like. Overwhelmingly, it's that she isn't Trump. Their hatred for him is off the charts. It's feelings all the way down."

Harris' greatest attraction is that she is not Trump. And that is enough. Hatred for Trump is entirely reasonable and logical. Simply as a human being, he is scum. As head of his own businesses over the decades, he was an incompetent--losing multiple businesses to financial ruin--and he was untrustworthy, and back-stabbing to his contractors. As a president, his "triumphs" were mostly him coasting on the economy he took over from Obama. He failed to bring jobs back from overseas, as he promised he would. He didn't leave America "greater" than it had been when he was inaugurated. In fact, he left it worse, but, to be fair to him, that was largely the impact from COVID. It's hard to say whether another person in office at the time would have done a better, worse, or comparable job of addressing the pandemic, a global phenomenon. He can't carry on an intelligible conversation, and he is woefully ignorant. He possesses ZERO knowledge or traits of statesmanship that qualifies him as POTUS, as many of his former staff affirm.

Michael Fitzgerald said...

What chaos has Trump ever created? Any of you lib retards wanna take a stab at that. Donald Trump thrives on order. He has routines that he has used his entire life, he stresses stability and balance. All chaos comes from reactionary Party members blowing up society and blaming Trump. This is the tried and true method of revolutionary commies, disrupt civil society until the radical looks safe in comparison.
All chaos comes from Democrat Party intent.

tommyesq said...

"How can Trump – the sleaziest person ever to run for president, who has already been convicted on 34 felony charges and impeached twice, whose failures of character and leadership were experienced directly by the American public during his four years at the helm – be running neck-and-neck with a young, talented, intelligent person with a commendable record of public service?"

How can one put so many wrong things into a single sentence?

In any event, he is correct about one thing - Trump's "character and leadership were experienced directly by the American public during his four years at the helm." Yet he is blinded to the idea that this experience may well be the reason Trump is gaining ground. Perhaps Trump is not the "devil" that we know, but is instead the very thing many of us are looking for.

Greg The Class Traitor said...

Theories rejected by Reich: 1. The polls are skewed against Harris, 2. Media make it look close for ratings, 3. Voters think Trump is better on economic matters.

So he flirted with reality before going full delusional.
Or, rather, he's a "good Dem" who can't admit the reality which was that the economy was much better under Trump

Theories Reich entertains: 1. Voters know all about Trump and don't know much about Harris (Trump is "the devil they know")

This is correct

The rest is just inferring that Trump, who can't change and is know, is working to prevent Harris from becoming more known.

This is delusional

Trump's methods for keeping us from learning more about Harris: 1. Declining to debate her again

The debate "moderators" ignored the rules and agreements with Trump. Trump would have to be fundamentally stupid to give them another chance to do that

3. Running ads that provide negative information about Harris (e.g., pointing out that she supported "gender transition surgery for incarcerated people").

Except that is letting people know about Harris.

That's some world class stupid you've got going, Bobby R

If Reich has the right theory for why Harris is falling behind, why doesn't he call on her to make herself better known?

Because he's aware that the more people know Harris, the less likely they will be to vote for her

She could do serious interviews and press conferences instead of lightweight fluff.

She's a babbling moron, so no she can't.

It is, in fact, rational to guess that she and her advisers have determined that the pure state of being NOT TRUMP is her best option. People wouldn't like what she'd reveal if she laid her cards on the table. To blame Trump for her predicament is to conceive of her as a passive, ineffectual person, which is to say utterly unsuited to the presidency.

It is, in fact, irrational to think the situation is anything other than what you have described

tommyesq said...

Fair point. Plus, he doesn't explain how people not knowing what Harris stands for somehow makes Trump's favorable ratings go up along with his vote share. Or how his creating chaos (like by getting shot??) raises his favorability. Or even how her being a black woman and America being a bunch of racists misogynists (despite the country being more than 50% women) raises his favorability ratings.

Original Mike said...

"Theories rejected by Reich: 3. Voters think Trump is better on economic matters."

Don't the polls show this to be true by a wide margin?

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

War between Biden's buddy Iran and our actual ally Israel is NOT going to improve Harris's chances of overtaking and beating Trump.

Leland said...

Hasn’t every other candidate done a townhall with CNN this cycle? What is stopping Harris from doing one? You know, to make herself known.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

We didn't need it, but thanks for the confirmation Robert. Hatred is a wasted emotion and damages all of society, but mostly damages the people doing the hating. Now we know at least part of the reason you're so fucked up.
Funny how you guys always overlook he was a better president than Biden is and far more of his staff stayed with him than left to join the resistance. Really, no one misses Cohen, Scaramucci or the black chick from the Apprentice. Just like the Republican party won't miss Liz and Dick and the crying dude.

Now let's get back to laughing at Reich and Harris.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

LOL

Ralph L said...

Soon after the coup, I watched Mark Halperin's gabfest with a bunch of "centrist" pundits, and they all said she needed to define herself quickly before Trump did. Then she hid for several weeks. Guess they were wrong.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

Well he attracts unbalanced snipers, which is kind of chaotic, but the blame can't be laid on him.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

No they were right. She just sucks at her chosen profession of being a politician. Sucks horribly at it. Recall how her last presidential campaign ended and why.

Darkisland said...

I've asked you before, Cook and never gotten an answer: What contractors did he stab in the back? Since 2015 I've seen a total of 3 claims, only one with a name:
1) Some woodworking contractor who Trump claimed did a poor job and got partially paid. And continued doing work for Trump for at least several years after.
2) Hilary alleged an architect in a golf course who Trump claimed did a crappy job. again, no names or details.
3) Mark Cuban claimed he stiffed fellow shark Barbara on some commissions. She sued and the court found she had not earned the commissions and she wound up owing Trump.

So please, give us some examples of who he has stiffed. If he had a reputation for stiffing contractors, he would be out of business as nobody would sell to him or do work for him.

John Henry

Christopher B said...

I'm gonna take a bow for expressing Turd Reich's method #1 ever since Harris amped up the debate on a third Trump vs Democrat to be named later debate.

Darkisland said...

And she is not even black!

According to Judge Joe Brown who claims to have met her father and that he claims to be Indian and Irish.

John Henry

MadisonMan said...

I appreciate the juxtaposition of this just above the picture of Harris doing absolutely nothing about the Helene response. Why don't people like her!!!

tim in vermont said...

She knows that America doesn't want what she is selling. That is plain. Maybe if she loses, she can move back to Montreal. where she grew up.

tim in vermont said...

"Harris' greatest attraction is that she is not Trump. And that is enough."

Basically Robert admits here that the media can get him worked up into a lather using lies, even a blood lust for war, because, well, "the media would never lie to us, would they?"

Joe Bar said...

Like Michael Malice said, "If you're going after Officer Harris, you're either sexist, racist, or ableist."
"Ableist?"
"'Cause she's a r*tard."
https://x.com/michaelmalice/status/1819122774725595646

Duke Dan said...

Amending my earlier post. Just wait until the post Iran started WW3 polls come out

mikee said...

I googled Robert Reich and mail ballots. Last big election, after the fact, he pointed out that (unauditable) mailed ballots, (harvested by political operatives in a partisan manner), were just peachy-keen and essentially, infallibly, the actual will of the voters whose name was on the outside envelope. This time around he isn't saying anything except register, register, register, because he knows the ballot harvest will be HUUUUUGE.

I have $100 on Harris winning by however many mail-in ballots it takes. I'm willing to bet more. Any takers?

Virgil Hilts said...

The idea that if people got to know Kamala they would like her better reminds me of the old Richard Pryor joke about doing a prison gig so he could better understand the brothers inside. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_6KiWVHoYU

Achilles said...

Robert Cook just demonstrates that that support for Kamala is purely based on hatred and ignorance.

Thanks Robert. It is no wonder you people keep trying to kill Trump and jail and censor his supporters.

MadTownGuy said...

RR says he's gaining on Kamala, but I don't think he's seeing headlights. He's seeing taillights.

Narayanan said...

he is rhodes scholar

Narayanan said...

may need to coin term - anti-economics

Narayanan said...

if Kamala advocate kneel poistion why need for abortion?

Iman said...

No, you misunderstood. He was a rode scholar: rode hard and put away shortly.

JaimeRoberto said...

Saying you don't know much about Harris is another way of saying she has changed her positions on so many things it's impossible to know what she really would do.

Iman said...

Only places for a “shorty” are on a street corner, on a roof or on horseback.

Old and slow said...

Reich is not stupid. He is dishonest.

I Use Computers to Write Words said...

Of the four reasons offered, I think "3. Voters think Trump is better on economic matters" is the closest. (I think a fuller reason is they think he's better on economic matters, and immigration matters, and several other matters. In short, "Voters think Trump is better on policy.") I clicked through to see his reason for dismissal, and find it extraordinarily thin:

"But given that the American economy has rebounded, inflation is way down, interest rates are falling, wages are up and the job engine continues, you’d think voters at the margin would be moving toward her rather than toward Trump."

Yeah, what SMART people do is throw away years of good economic times under Trump and years of bad economic times under Biden, in favor of a few months of improvement, because that's recent. Our thoughtful populous will of course blinker themselves to viewing only the last few months—that's what anyone would do, really!

It's amazing how bad the "smart" left is.

narciso said...

https://x.com/behizytweets/status/1841189370306469992?s=46&t=pOghkxSbQl2pg4CLby5nCA

RMc said...

(Reich) is just making another column out of how much he hates Trump.

He's made good money over the years doing so. Hating Trump is a growth industry.

RMc said...

Incorrect; she's not Trump and she's not Biden. "On Election Day, vote for the Not-Old-Creep...!"

rehajm said...

How long before Clooney takes out a page ad to demand to have Joe Biden back?

wendybar said...

James Woods
·
Oct 1, 2024
@RealJamesWoods

The ports are about to be closed

War is erupting in the Middle East

Americans in a disaster area are being ignored

Our borders are wide open

Crime is a tsunami in every blue city

VOTE DEMOCRAT FOR MORE OF THIS.

Gerda Sprinchorn said...

"The age cross-tabs are credible"

What is this based on? Or more broadly, where did you get the information for this whole post from?

Jim at said...

Hatred for Trump is entirely reasonable and logical.

And I hope it eats you up inside. Good and hard.

Michael K said...

AARP is a reliable Democrat supporter.