ADDED: Earlier this morning, the NYT had this headline:
September 6, 2024
"The labor market appears to have shifted into a lower gear, reinforcing concerns that businesses have little appetite to hire..."
"... as interest rates weigh on investment and the path of consumer demand remains uncertain. Employers added 142,000 jobs in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday, a weaker-than-expected showing for the second consecutive month. And totals for the previous two months were revised downward.... The August jobs report comes at a critical time for Federal Reserve officials. They have shifted their attention from inflation, which has fallen markedly, to the health of the labor market...."
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Does NYT mention the revision down last month of the previous 2Q by 800,000 jobs?
Here's the NYT article about that revision: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/21/business/economy/us-jobs-economy.html
Surely the NYT would mention their own reporting just 2 weeks ago.
The chocolate rations will be increased
And in three months.. it will be downgraded to 100,000 jobs... mostly people trying to get a second job to beat inflation. Kamala owns this but she will say it's Trump's fault.
And totals for the previous two months were revised downward....
numbers are ALWAYS subject to revision.. Always a need to be accurate!
OH! and IT JUST SO HAPPENS that the revisions are ALWAYS down..
That's just the way statistics works
Unexpectedly.
So far the working class is running up their credit cards and still spending. But the fixed income folks are no longer spending money that went away fast as Biden’s planned 40% inflation raped their lifestyles. The Dollar Store customers are gone with the inflation wind.
Actually, re-reading the previous NYT article, it was totals from the previous 12 months were revised down. Over a year of the government initially reporting higher numbers than what was realized.
Yah- these are the cooked numbers. Hard to believe this is the best good news they could invent but here it is. The problem is it becomes obvious to even the layman when compared to private employment data and other privately calculable economic data.
The next editorial will report that progressive prices were leading the progressive jobs reporting.
Consistent downward revision of economic numbers for nearly 3 years.
Shit happened.
I thought the revision in late August might have been made more severe, so they could show a "rebound" in September, when people would be paying attention. This lack of rebound is after they moved the bar lower in late August.
That instant 40 precent reduction in government healthcare costs cured inflation. Maybe they can accidentally publish employment data from another year?
Capital extraction is a redistributive change scheme of hope and change with bennies for sacrificial bab... burdens.
I remember back in 2000, when the tech bubblr has collapsed but they denied iy
I think it's cute that the left thinks things were going great with fake numbers.
I run a machine shop that supplies automotive and heavy equipment industries. EVERYTHING has slowed down in the 3rd quarter, and orders are slower for the 4th quarter. Layoffs coming. Sad. Nobody is hiring right now. Customer inventories are high. Our biggest on-road customer is doing a 6-week maintenance shut down starting in October. They must have a shitload of inventory to exhaust.
Eggs are back to $3.99 a dozen. $2.99 on sale. The economy is a shit show for everyone but David Brooks.
And they'll be handing out yummy Soylent Green
"The labor market appears to have shifted into a lower gear, reinforcing concerns that businesses have little appetite to hire..."
It is hysterical [and telling] what the media finally choose to notice...
The entirety of the rest of the country would have used that headline many months ago while the media and (D)emocrats were touting the joys of Bindenomics. What the press does not see or greatly delays seeing would fill volumes.
If an (R) were in office this sort of story would have started day one of them taking office and some variation would appear every day regardless of the actual facts. The unwritten press rule (heck it might actually be written in some news rooms) is that (R) admins have no good news and (D) admins have no bad news.
This regime and the "Job" numbers they release are just pure propaganda and garbage.
We have been in a recession for 2 years.
Period.
Industries that actually supply something are slowing down, and so is their hiring. But as we discussed yesterday, the illegal immigrants are keeping the education establishment fully employed. Total grift.
Yes, yes. The August numbers will be up from the revised July numbers. Then they'll be revised down. The September numbers will be up from the revised August numbers. Then they'll be revised down.
Lots of fodder for headlines, whether you prefer optimism or doom, with little actual information.
A few axioms might be in order:
1. The fed raising interest rates is, by design, a move to slow down the economy. So should be no surprise that the economy will slow down.
1.a. The open question is: "Can you tame inflation without choaking the economy to near death?" Lot of people say you can - and talk of a soft landing - but the last time inflation was running rampant during the Carter administration, Paul Volker had to choak the economy to near death to stop the inflation. So, it isn't clear that you can stop inflation without severely retarding the economy (which by nature throws people out of work.)
2. It is complete nonsense to espouse and claim a vigorous policy of strong economic growth, at the same time that you say you are trying to tame inflation.
3. There is such a thing as stagflation. It can really happen.
Economy? Jobs? Don't talk about those things that affect daily life for everyone in the country. That way madness lies. Talk about religion, skin color, abortion, Gazans, Russians, anything but things that affect daily life for everyone.
Good thing Democrats primary focus the last 8 years is to get Trump.
Where are the all-caps 60-point headlines with "STAGFLATION" in them?
The unemployment rate drops. Payrolls spike. This is the strongest payroll report in five months, but perfectly tempered, as it will not fan inflation concerns. Goldilocks. Take that, Trump.
Don't believe a word of it. It's much worse.
So which economists expected it to rebound? Resident NYT toadies like Krugman?
Most of the jobs were part-time jobs. And they went to foreign nationals. American citizens actually lost jobs.
Foreign-born workers: +635K in August
Native-born workers: -1.325 MILLION in August
Yes, 1.3 million NATIVE-BORN Americans lost a job in August
The labor market "shift[ing] into a lower gear" is such a lovely formulation. If a Republican were in the White House, it would be "falters" or "stumbles." But here it's just a downshift, like we're getting ready to pass somebody.
Rich getting richer eh? What does that mean for unemployed: "poor getting poorer". The divide between them gets wider, and the middle class gets washed out. Trump will take that message to the stump.
The Keynesian conundrum?
Keynesianism justified the government spending to juice demand-side aggregate demand. But that also caused the inflation that, according to the Keynesian Phillips Curve, prescribed the higher interest rates needed to subdue it.
Perhaps one of the threats posed by Trump to the "establishment" is that he defied the Phillips Curve through supply-side policies that ushered in growth without inflation?
And if you think about it, a policy aimed at incentivizing the production of more goods and services is not inflationary compared to a policy of demanding more goods and services.
@ Leland: So, a mixed sort of number, with headline payrolls gain weaker than expected especially after the revisions of the last 2 months, while the Unemployment rate went down a tick from last month and average hourly earnings bounced back strongly from last month and were a tick better than consensus.
Keeping that in mind, does Jerome Powell deliver 25bp or 50bp on Sep 18 ?
Of-course it will be 50bp.
Why ? Because the "Markets" demand it, what could be a better reason than that ? And need to protect the AI Revolution and the Magnificent 7, in case any more justification were required.
"Don't fight the Markets", like they whisper in the corridors of the Fed. They know very well who is the Boss.
So monetary policy on the path to multiple rate cuts while fiscal policy continuing to thunder ahead with $ 2 Trillion annual deficits.
And they still say that they are afraid of the "risk of a recession" and a "hard landing". Anybody looked at the Market Financial Conditions Index recently? It continues to go from easy to easier. So yes, multiple Fed rates cuts seem about right for the situation.
Yesterday I discovered the shabby 1920s rooming house that's been for sale all year has had its asking price raised from $360k to $420k. Two similar houses nearby have also gone up. Makes no sense. Low-income housing doesn't ever seem like a good investment to me, but maybe it is in a recession.
AND the increase in government jobs by 200,000. It was a double correction!
And all real job growth was in government jobs.
Perhaps one of the threats posed by Trump to the "establishment" is that he defied the Phillips Curve through supply-side policies that ushered in growth without inflation?
Growth during Trump's term was 2-3% (I think there were a quarter or two of 4% growth), which pretty much was the same as during the last four years of Obama, same with job growth. Job growth, again, was similar to the last four years of the Obama administration.
Trump, in his 2016 campaign, said his policies would lead to 4, 5, or 6% growth, even 7% when he was extra delusional.
Trump also promised to eliminate the deficit in eight years (this time around he is not making that promise anymore). Even ignoring the 2020 numbers, Trump grew the deficit in the years 2017-2019. In fact the deficit exceeded Obama's in the last four years of his term.
So to say that the economy was somehow the best in the history is inaccurate at best, but more like an outright lie. (But of course you are going to tell me to take Trump's statements seriously but not literally)
Give the man his due, he is probably one of the greatest con men that ever lived.
"This is the strongest payroll report in five months" until it gets revised downward like 20 of the last 24 months. It takes a special kind of person to ASK Lucy to hold the football for you, but you do you dude.
Orwell is not suppossed to be a how to manual
You have that right, narciso. I just returned from shopping at ALDI. The chocolate chips had gone up 60 cents a bag since two weeks ago. Another item they used to have that was the cheapest around, is no longer there. My husband had to listen to me b!tch for five straight minutes. "They have shifted their attention from inflation, which has fallen markedly..." I say, "Bullcr@p."
The stock market looks like it's headed south for the winter. High inflation, a tanked Dow, and increasing unemployment. It's all Trump's fault. Our only hope is to elect Kamala.
@Rich, ""Don't fight the Markets", like they whisper in the corridors of the Fed. They know very well who is the Boss."
I think you have it backwards. The line is" Never fight the Fed.
You do your readers a great service, Ann by educating them on how the "news" in the New York Times is often just political messaging designed to make the Democrats look good when all around people are suffering from their policies.
We also noticed the 800,000 lost jobs the government finally "revised" months later.
We also note with glee everytime "sluggishness" in the Harris economy job market is "unexpected." Bad news delivered about Democrat Party policies is always "unexpected." And the "good news" is always "expected" to occur sometime in the future, according to the latest "expert" you never heard of before today.
Who in their right minds believes the crap this rag prints? Sadly, the US is not people with very many right minds.
It was a documentary. This has been going on for as long as the New York Times has existed. It was created and is currently staffed mostly by Deep Staters and those who wish to become one.
If real inflation data were ever released, the US government would go broke due to the COLA's that are owed to Social Security recipients. So they constantly rejigger the basket to always show 3% or less inflation. Everything about the United States is a giant scam.
Eggs are DOUBLE the cost they were even a month ago. Inflation is RAGING, but you will not read about it in the news until after a Republican wins (if).
Drive around the empty country (I do). We are in a massive Depression. Entire towns are being wiped off the map. Thousands of them.
Well he did work for bbc world servicd fir a time
Inflation is ONLY created by government spending and the only solution to it is to PRICE the government out of this spending by raising interest rates.
All of a sudden, all by itself, the economy has shifted itself into a lower gear. Won't somebody please talk to this economy, and get it to listen to reason?
If you're looking for somebody to blame, then blame the economy.
Oh, and who is responsible for this INFLATING government spending: Republicans who control the House. That's who.
Over a year of the government LYING to its citizens, you mean. Tell me, why do we need this government any more?
Rich runs with the obvious lies being pedaled by the regime.
Nothing new here.
"I run a machine shop that supplies automotive and heavy equipment industries. EVERYTHING has slowed down in the 3rd quarter, and orders are slower for the 4th quarter. Layoffs coming. Sad. Nobody is hiring right now."
Sub-Zero just laid off a bunch of people.
The happy talk goes in the NYT headlines for low information voters, Democrats and fans of Bidenomics. But I repeat myself. The real serious stuff and correct facts get buried deep in agate type on the bottom of the page.
The labor market does not exist. Arnold Kling explains.
Field Marshal Freder has forgotten the Chinese virus again. The fact that black prosperity took off does not impress him.
We should refer to west coast tent-cities as “Bidenvilles”
In SF and down the peninsula, tech layoffs continue to be hot and heavy.
I tend to blame AI.
Two words:
Stagflation
Well, when all the illegals get their $150K free from the government to buy a home- that $420K will seem like a bargain.
Ha, totally non responsive to my previous rebuttal. Higher payroll numbers mean zilch to a person not receiving pay. In fact, it is demoralizing, because it tends to raise the barriers to entry back into the workforce. You point to them as if it is great data, but it really just means rich are getting richer and the poor poorer, and the voters outside the Fed know it.
Nothing. Absolutely nothing the Feds do today will change the economy significantly between now and the election. We are 1 month from closing the books on 3Q, and you can barely close on a loan in that amount of time. 3Q data will come out just as Election Day arrives and weeks after Democrats mailed in their ballots, or chunked them in the trash preferring not to vote at all.
Employers added 142,000 jobs in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported …
And on or after November 6th the BLS will “unexpectedly” revise even these paltry figures downward. Maybe by 150,000 jobs.
Here's a piece on the jobs reports. For the last two months the average reduction in reported number of new jobs has been 45,000. Over a year this adds up to about a 550,000 shortfall. Better than last year's shortfall of 800,000 but still indicative that BLS is bullshitting the People.
If you read those “inflation has fallen” articles closely, you see that food and gasoline are explicitly left out of the calculations, ostensibly because they “are too volatile” but actually because (1) they would show that inflation at its peak was much worse than stated and (2) because they would show that inflation is still serious.
Posted on 2 threads:
"Two stats are everything you need to know about the August jobs report:
Jobs for native born Americans over the last year: -1.3 million
Jobs for foreign-born workers over the last year: +2 million
Full time jobs: -438,000
Part times jobs: +527,000"
--Greg Price on X
And there was another 25,000 downward revision today affecting the prior jobs report. These clowns just can't keep from fudging the numbers.
Improve your reading comprehension skills. I excluded the last year of Trump's term because of the pandemic.
"Stagflation"
Yes, regulation policy makes prices go up yet wages don't increase enough to let consumers continue to spend. That is what the green goals of Beiden's inflation reduction act did, raise electricity prices and destroy the auto industry.
Costs go up due to elimination of efficient suppliers, nat gas and gas cars, but who got 30% raises? no one, so consumers can't buy to sustain growth.
Classic factors of stagflation.
I question what is going on with the United Auto Workers. Do they really want China to sell all the cars in America? Ivy League economists talk about the benefits of having low wage people sell cheap things to America, but what will the UAW do? sell coffee?
Inflation has fallen, prices have not. I stopped at the grocery on the way home from work. Things I buy regularly are two to three times what they were a few years ago.
People are not educated that the rate of inflation is different than the cumulative inflation. Oh, inflation is 2.8 pct that is an improvement. But Prices are 30 pct higher than when they were during the Trump admin. Your wages are not 30 pct higher. So you are screwed by Beiden/Kamala.
Do you feel rich now?
Nothing matters but political power for the corrupt democrat party.
Improve your thinking skills, Freder.
Excellent point.
@Iman, you must be a young’un. I recall a lot of this gong on during the Obama years
Sounds like Gov't provided misinformation...the sort of thing the nyt rails against when their competitors publish it.
The unelected unaccountable Federal Reserve, that’s who printed the money for Biden-Harris to flood the economy with currency worth 80% of what it was 4 years ago. Treasury uses it to buy securities and keep the market humming. But as Julian Simon famously put it, “Things that can’t go on forever won’t.”
Except some “real prices” of specific food staples have increased 50-200% like eggs, milk, beef, pork, chicken, flour, sugar, and fresh vegetables. All of it excluded from inflation calculations. Every traditional low cost protein source has been affected. Remember all the meat processors that burned down during COVID, the bird flu that wiped out poultry farms, the government pressure on dairy farmers and ranchers?
The average family now pays $1200 a month more for food and energy than before COVID. That’s over $14,000 per year in added expenses for things EXCLUDED from “official” happy joy joy inflation measures. So another 20% increase in prices not listed here since January 2021.
Freder. How was your public pension doing 2016-2019 as opposed to 2020-2023? How much did you pay to fuel your vehicle in 2019 as opposed to 2024?
How about groceries? You eat don't you? Mine have risen @ 31% since 2020. And I shop at Aldi.
"Approximately 70 million Americans will see a 8.7% increase in their Social Security benefits and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments in 2023."
But never let facts get in your way, Dixcus.
This is so dumb I guess you are a troll.
Not sure it was Simon, Mike, though he was certainly of the type to recognize it. See this item: https://quoteinvestigator.com/2018/04/28/go-on/
Ironically, I believe Herb Stein was part of the government that helped create the great inflation of the '70s.
Hayek, on the other hand, was an intellectual giant. So was Julian Simon. An interesting point about how Simon came to change from a Malthusian in his earlier years: https://www.masterresource.org/simon-julian/julian-simon-changed-his-mind/
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