"... rating his prospects of winning November’s presidential election as much higher than headline opinion polling figures suggest.... Although some polls have shown the vice-president with leads of between four and six points in Pennsylvania... others show Trump trailing by smaller deficits. Narrower gaps separate the two in Michigan and Wisconsin, where Harris’s lead is just 1 or 2%, according to several different recent polls. Underpinning Democrats’ fears is the knowledge that Trump greatly out-performed predictions in all three states in 2016, when he narrowly won them en route to his election triumph over Hillary Clinton, and in 2020, when he was pipped by Joe Biden by far smaller margins than forecast. The worries are compounded by the
latest New York Times/Siena poll, which records Trump performing more robustly in three Sun belt battleground states – Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina – than he has in weeks...."
From
"Democrats worried about polls undercounting Donald Trump’s support/Prospects of ex-president’s victory could be higher as some Harris supporters unnerved by small lead in swing states" (The Guardian).
I like the phrase "pipped by Joe Biden." Just one of the benefits of getting news about America from somewhere other than America. Chiefly, I like getting the distance.
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66 comments:
I have heard "pipped" used in poker where some loses because his kicker card is out-pipped by his opponent.
Either the National polls are trash, or the State polls are. Because the results are entirely incompatible with each other
IIRC, the State polls tend to be better (more accurate), which is good news for Trump
For one simple example: Trump isn't winning Arizona by 5 pts, while losing the "national vote" by 5%. Not going to happen
All I know is that the one time I was contacted for a poll, I asked how much knowing my preference was worth to them. They hung up.
Dems are having 2016 flashbacks. Oh what a night...
Anyway, my news source of choice is the Daily Mail.
I have pollsters contacting (trying, at least) daily. I would never answer that question honestly if I were ever to answer it. No upside and as we've seen, lots of downside. Besides, the pollsters would just downweight republican opinions anyway to achieve their desired result.
There is a reason that campaigns do internal polling: they don't believe public polls either.
330 million people, 400 million polls
Kamala Harris has largest post-debate lead yet over Donald Trump in new Wisconsin Watch poll
The MassINC Polling Group survey found Harris with 53% support to Trump’s 46% among likely voters, nearly outside the poll’s margin of error.
National polls are skewed by states like California and New York which go Democrat by big margins. So the national numbers are basically garbage. A dirty little secret of polling is that you can make the numbers be anything you want by where you poll. This can also be done at the state level by over sampling Philadelphia, for example, in Pennsylvania polls.
Do you think this isn’t done?
But the problem is that this chicanery all goes out the window in an actual election. What the Democrats are really worried about is their internal polls, which must be showing Trump strong enough to exceed the margin of fraud.
And where exactly did MassINC concentrate their polling. Milwaukee? Madison maybe? We’ll never know.
And by the way, if you want to have some fun, dig a little into Wisconsin Watch. The first clue, it is a nonprofit founded by Craig Newmarket, founder of Craigslist. You can follow from there.
Correction to the above: Craig Newmark. I hate autocorrect.
Foreign press making the erroneous assumption things are proper with our elections…
If your "largest post-debate lead" is "nearly outside the poll's margin of error" - "nearly"! -, you're not doing very well.
The main reason that the Democrats are worried about undercounting is that they don’t know the margin that they need to make up with ballot stuffing.
Funny, the Democrats are being hoaxed by their own push polls.
@Jersey Fled: They just polled in the Triangle (probably Asheville, too). They didn't head out to Whiteville or Spruce Pine.
I don’t believe the Democrats are really worried about undercounting. They need the polls to show a lead to make any cheating plausible. They may be worried about those sun belt states that really have been “election fortified”.
The Guardian is reliably leftist, so there is a natural affinity for a NY Times reader.
Wi has less than 6 mm people, and the Massinc poll has a moe higher than 7%? Did they pol 300 people?
The ballot box is secret. So votes can be honest. But if I put a Trump sticker on my car, I'll get keyed.
as Jersey Fled points out..
There have been Well Over 100 MILLION ballots mailed out in California alone,
which Each ballot pre-filled in with Joe Biden's name..
Of course, this HAS caused some problems, but the new Harris ballots are being printed as we speak
Strange how pollsters just can’t figure out how to accurately measure Trump support. They did this to themselves just like Big Media did. Most normal Americans won’t talk to them, the same way they shun Big Media. The loss of trust and respect is not easy to earn back, if it’s even possible. Did Harris really lose 11% among Hispanic voters in AZ in one polling cycle? We don’t know. The possibilities are endless, including undercounting the support earlier, to inaccurate weighting or using outdated models from earlier years to predict voter participation. I like it. An uncertain Democrat machine is less likely to be able to create enough votes on demand to cheat their way to the win this time.
So maybe Inga won't have to shoot him.
wouldn't is be something? if all wards and districts had to announce their numbers at the same time?
instead of Madison and Milwaukee ALWAYS waiting until every other area is in
If Harris is doing well, then the question is --- with what group of voters is she doing well with? Suburban white women? Yes. Middle-agers with college degrees? Yes. Blacks, especially black males? Her numbers are the worst for any Democratic candidate in my lifetime. The same for Latinos, both male and female. Non-degreed white voters? Trump's ahead by a huge margin.
There are peeps around the edges that point to Harris not doing well at all. Man-on-the-street interviews with blacks over and over again see her disparaged by the interviewee. On Fox News, you can say "Oh, that's cherry picking", but Don Lemon was stunned to find the same thing. Apparent bussing of the same participants to multiple rallies to build crowd size. Lying about Beyonce appearing on the last night of the convention to gin up the ratings. Latent anger at the Democratic Party leadership for how they fucked over their voters by kicking Biden to the curb and anointing Harris with no votes.
If Harris is doing so well, then find me a sub-group where she is outperforming Democratic candidate standards. There aren't any. Those groups sum up to victory or defeat, and I think we're looking at defeat here.
Here in Nevada Democrat Senate candidate Jackie Rosen is doing quite well in the polls. Harris not so much. There's a lot of hard feeling about the open borders, particularly among those who are here legally, or those who were here before it was the USA.
using race-ing-ist slang Trump wins by a dick-head size of small dick!
Michael K, I haven’t EVER felt the urge to shoot anyone I despise, lucky you.
since everyone knows about EC why are not polls gauge EV state by state?
data crunching capabilities are so much more advanced than previously too.
Sure, it's sorta interesting to jabber about someone being "pipped." Like Althouse, I would take note of that phrase if I was reading this Guardian piece.
But, very soon after reading the "pipping" phrase I move on to thinking about "piping," i.e. the phrase "laying pipe." Seems like laying pipe is better than pipping,
Different strokes fer dif folks.
Oh what a glorious night indeed. My son and I partied down on the 16th floor of Trump Tower and got probably the best food (and large portions) I've ever had at any event, of any kind ever.
They had set up a big TV and rows of chairs out in the foyer. A couple hundred people in the ballroom partying, another hundred out watching the numbers. And lots of people, like me, scurrying between the two.
By the time the party ended, it looked pretty certain that Donald Trump had won. Even better, in my mind, La Clinton had lost.
We retired to our hotel across the river and slept the sleep of the righteous. Woke up in the morning to find that he had, in fact won.
Came back to the hotel after a day at the tradeshow to find a mob of angry demonstrators mobbing all the streets around Trump Tower and our hotel. We had to walk about 3 blocks through a tiny path that the police had cleared.
My son went out and mingled and took pictures of all the trash and graffitti. In the morning the whole area was pristine. No graffitti, no trash, like it never even happened.
That Wednesday was the happiest trade show I have ever attended.
John Henry
I prefer the other, poor man's, Craig Newmark. Proprietor of Newmark's Door economics blog.
John Henry
The Democrats seem to be waking up to the fact that cheating is going to be a lot harder this year, which makes the "likely voter" model they had been counting on of 7D-5R-5I a complete fantasy.
I think a lot polls over sample Democrats in an attempt to demoralize Trump voters.
The Harris campaign is still running ads which claim that Trump's Project 2025 is going to take away the voting rights of Black people and outlaw abortion.
It's almost as if a poll can be constructed specificially to get a desired result, by merely manipulating how many Democrats are polled, versus how many Republicans are polled. Any outcome could be pre-arranged.
And now that you mention it, it's not almost like that ... it's EXACLTLY like that. If you want a push poll suggesting that one candidate is doing better, in order to "invent" a news hook ... then you just pay for that result. Polling companies work for PROFIT. They will produce a poll for whatever result you wish.
And everyone knows that all polls are untrustworthy, so they're "worried" that current polls are "undercounting" Trump support.
Polls are bullshit, in other words. And Kamala is behind in the REAL polls, or they wouldn't be worried.
Chiefly, I like getting the distance. But the large majority of the links on this blog are to the NYTs and the WaPoo. So, I'm guessing Althouse used to buy into their bullshit. But now, she performs a rhetorical "anal"yses and lets the rest of us rip it to shreds. Clean "stubborn neutrally" hands that can avoid the censors under the radar. It's like witnessing a great awakening. There has to be more feminists like Althouse out there. She's a feminist without the bitterness.
If they are polling by making phone calls, how do they know the person is even in the target state? People keep their cell phone numbers when the move or get a number from out of state to make recognizing spoofed spam calls easier.
Unless they're going door-to-door, I don't see how it can be reliably accurate. Maybe they ask if the person currently resides in whatever state they are targeting. Of course no one lies.
National polls are distorted by the huge margins Harris will run up in California & New York. Take them out & she's likely losing "national polls."
Whole idea behind the Electoral college was "require President have support throughout the country."
When someone does a statistical study, the standard is 95% confidence. When you see a study with, say, 90% confidence, it means the difference wasn't significant at 95%, so they had to fudge it. Studies that find nothing interesting do not get published and do not earn tenure.
Yeah, when it is a 7% difference and the difference is not significant, that seems quite odd.
For some reason "pipped" always makes me think of Dolly Longstaffe in Trollope's "The Duke's Children". "Pipped at the post" he says, when the rich American girl agrees to marry Lord Silverbridge, heir to the dukedom of Omnium and Gatherum. Meaning that he never even had a chance against the duke's heir.
John Henry
"If Harris is doing well, then the question is ---"
why are they trying to kill Trump?
“They” aren’t. Conspiracy Central mumbo jumbo again, right here on Althouse blog comments sections. It’s become so commonplace, not a day goes by that a reader coming here doesn’t read such nonsense. I’ve been here since 2011, I don’t recall reading so much of this garbage until Trump ran for president. Trump changed the Republican Party, as he has changed the comments sections of the Althouse blog.
Polls don't matter this election, just as they didn't matter last election.
Mail-In ballot harvesting won the presidency for Joe Biden, a dementia patient at the time he won, after a campaign that consisted of him hiding in his basement to avoid exhibiting his dementia. Mail-In ballot harvesting will win the presidency for Kamala Harris, a diversity hire as VP, who changed her public POC classification from being Indian/Jamaican to Black for this election.
Inga
"Michael K, I haven’t EVER felt the urge to shoot anyone I despise, lucky you."
Of course not. You'll get someone like Routh to do it.
If it's not close the Democrats can't cheat. Only poll that counts is the one in November--and for the Dims that's the polls in September, October (early voting) and in late November (topping up the count to put the Kackler over the top).
Ah another Trollope fan. The Palliser Chronicles are a great read--and tell much about politics in general.
Inga - says the non-stop Trump Hate Cultist who jumps on every lie/BS made up conspiracy created and pushed by the left.
Oh do tell us how the would-be golf-course killer was a Trump supporter. All made up. and pimped by you - Inga. Russia Russia Igna.
Inag - You despise all Republicans - until they go all Cheney.
Of course you and you're friends are trying to kill him. You've worked hard to create an atmosphere of hatred and distrust. You have vilified him in the most vile terms. You set the groundwork for two of your more weakminded party members to try and kill him.
Inag - for you:
"Disinformation experts and media outlets have routinely placed the bulk of the blame for “misinformation” and “disinformation” online on right-wing sources. But they have mostly failed to acknowledge the breadth and impact of the Russian collusion hoax, plus other popular BlueAnon fake stories: that Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh was involved in a gang rape; that actor Jussie Smollett was attacked by two Trump supporters; that Trump failed to condemn white supremacists in Charlottesville in summer 2017; that Trump told people to inject bleach during the pandemic and other stories that were shared — or are still peddled to this day — at levels as high as the presidency. Most also ignore the stories and ideas that were deemed right-wing misinformation but ended up being correct: the Hunter Biden laptop story; that Covid-19 likely came from a laboratory leak; that there were undercover federal agents at the January 6 riot; or that President Joe Biden was suffering obvious cognitive decline. All were labeled conspiracy theories; all turned out to be true."
I N A G
F U and your party.
"Ryan Routh failed to assassinate President Donald Trump.
Routh is now offering a $150,000 bounty for whomever kills President Trump.
The DOJ released the letter.
Why would the DOJ publicly release this letter?
I have an idea--they're all in on it.
They all want him dead."
Congratulations Rusty, you’ve been elected the head nutball of the Trump Nutballery Association, such a honor!
Inga would have been happily connecting the Remdesivir and jamming inubation tubes into the vulnerable.
Do not forget that Inga was claiming for months that J6 protestors killed Officer Sicknick.
Inga so wants to forget Mr. Unity/Pedo Pete's call to arms in the Dark Brandon screed.
Harris is endorsed by the Pipelayer's Union. She delivers.
“The D.C. medical examiner's office said Sicknick died of natural causes after suffering from two strokes at the base of his brainstem caused by a clot in an artery and noted that "all that transpired played a role in his condition," a reference to Sicknick responding to the mob at the Capitol.
Two men were charged in 2021 with assaulting Sicknick and accused of using chemical spray on the line of officers, Sicknick among them, attempting to protect the Capitol. One of the men, Julian Khater, admitted to spraying Sicknick and was sentenced to 80 months in prison in January. The second man, George Tanios, pleaded guilty to lesser charges and was ordered to 12 months supervised release.
Khater of New Jersey, who was accused of deploying chemical spray at Sicknick, pleaded guilty to two federal charges. The Sicknick family spoke at Khater's sentencing hearing.
Sickcnick's family said Carlson downplayed the situation at the Capitol and the efforts of U.S. Capitol and Metropolitan police who were outnumbered and "literally fighting for their very lives."
"One officer, Brian Sicknick, lost that fight the following day and several more officers lost that fight in the following weeks," they said. "On video, Officer Sicknick looks like he managed to shake off the chemical irritants and resume his duties. That he did, but his sense of duty and incredible work ethic were the driving force which sent him back in spite of his injuries and no doubt contributed to his succumbing to his injuries the following day."“
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/brian-sicknick-family-statement-tucker-carlson-fox-news-january-6-2021-attack/
I recall the days when conservatives flew those “Back the Blue” flags. What the hell has happened to you folks? Trumpism happened. Ruined conservatism and the Republican Party. It will take decades before they can have any respectability again.
Nurse Wretched come to life.
@Narayanan that would require the company to poll a significant number of people in each of the 50 States.
Way too expensive
It is always fun to experience someone not understanding how polls work and how statistics work.
Ah Lucky Rusty. President of the Nutball Association (people who have gone nuts because of Trump beating them) likes you!!! Run!!!
Wendy. Considering the honorific has been bestowed upon me by one of our left wing members who has consistantly proved to be immune from logic and reason I wear it with more than just a little consternation. I repeat. I will not belong to any organization that would have me as a member.
Meetings at 6:30 PM on the last tuesday of the month.
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