MEANWHILE, on Truth Social: Trump writes:
THROUGH HARD WORK, TALENT, AND LUCK, I CURRENTLY HAVE ALMOST FIVE HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS IN CASH, A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF WHICH I INTENDED TO USE IN MY CAMPAIGN FOR PRESIDENT. THE OFTEN OVERTURNED POLITICAL HACK JUDGE ON THE RIGGED AND CORRUPT A.G. CASE, WHERE I HAVE DONE NOTHING WRONG, KNEW THIS, WANTED TO TAKE IT AWAY FROM ME, AND THAT’S WHERE AND WHY HE CAME UP WITH THE SHOCKING NUMBER WHICH, COUPLED WITH HIS CRAZY INTEREST DEMAND, IS APPROXIMATELY $454,000,000. I DID NOTHING WRONG EXCEPT WIN AN ELECTION IN 2016 THAT I WASN’T EXPECTED TO WIN, DID EVEN BETTER IN 2020, AND NOW LEAD, BY A LOT, IN 2024.THIS IS COMMUNISM IN AMERICA!
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37 comments:
Key word: on paper.
Selling all the stock would tank the price. Still, I'm glad for him. He took a risk in starting up a venture, and it paid off. It's the American Way!
It'll be a great day when individuals are treated justly, and the government has to hope for luck to persecute political enemies.
Trump probably doesn’t do irony. Because if he did he would know that the main organ for the dissemination of government deceit during the period of the Soviet Union was a publication called “Pravda” that translates as “Truth.” Of course the leaders of the Soviet Union wouldn’t have known the truth even if it had hit them in a head-on collision.
The SPAC merger bubble has burst, with many of the companies losing 90% of their value post-merger. A SPAC merger involves a walking-dead public company with little or no business activity on the one side, and a private company that may or may not have any business life itself. SPAC is just a way to go public while seeking to avoid the scrutiny of the SEC with initial filings that would be reviewed by lawyers and accountants. Truth Social could have gone public on its own if it had a viable business, legitimate audited financials and a business with revenue and a future; going the SPAC route says that the company is likely very weak and that stockholders other than Trump need to beware.
As far as I can tell, the only value in the shares is if they issue certificates that will be seen as collectors items.
That's a meme stock. It is called DWAC, which is a holding place for the merger of Truth Social. The merger has been approved but is being held up by one of the owners who feels he's being ripped off.
Trump owns 78 million shares, currently valued at 42.81. But it hasn't actually gone public yet, so that's not really what it's "worth." Until a couple of months ago it was $17 a share, which would still put it worth about $1.5 billion.
Once the merger goes through, Trump has to wait 6 months until he can sell any of it. Truth Social is operating at a loss, though, and could very easily tank once it goes public.
It's also very much tied to Trump himself. So, for example, if he loses any of his criminal trials, it could have a massive impact on its value. The whole thing is banking on him winning the election.
In other words, a lot has to happen for it to ACTUALLY be worth that kind of money. I cannot wait to short this stock. A four time bankrupt CEO is the closest thing that average investors will get to shooting fish in a barrel on Wall Street.
This is a corollary to the "get woke, go broke" meme.
Or another example of the Trump boomerang?
1 attempt to silence trump
2 he starts his own media company, Truth Social
3 MOOLAH!
as a side benefit we have fascist tears over Musk's purchase of Twitter.
Anti-fascism for the win
John Henry
Oh no. How dare this happen.
Trump must be tortured, killed, and his assets seized by angry arrogant Putinist fucktards. .
Anyone who dared to provide a bond for Mr Trump would have to weigh the risk of future trouble with the DoJ, New York Courts +++
I am waiting for the Democrats to try and use lawfare to tank the deal. Their win at any cost and screw the consequences strategy will poison American politics for a long time.
So Trump has the money. So he says. But he continues to not take this seriously. If Trump had taken all this seriously, he would not have created the problems he now faces.
Trump says he has the money. Therefore, there is no reason for the courts to grant him relief from the appeal bond on the grounds his attorneys are claiming that he doesn't have the money.
Trumps ALL CAPS grates
John Henry said, “as a side benefit we have fascist tears over Musk's purchase of Twitter.”
Meanwhile, yesterday on X, Musk made his positions clear:
- Secure borders
- Safe & clean cities
- Don’t bankrupt America with spending
- Racism against any race is wrong
- No sterilization below age of consent
Sane, centrist, rational. Like Trump. Like the vast majority of the American people. Like the Framers (as told by Bernard P. Fife):
We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.
https://youtu.be/yx5d3haRG7M?si=ZhTvGxn8HlIDNSnA
-10% on the announcement. Wall Streeters — the ones with lucrative warrants and PIPEs just covered their bets.
SPACs are generally shady. What is the motivation for those putting up the money. A platform with only ~5M users (only ~600k of which are allegedly active/regular users) valued at $3B? The investors must be confident about getting some benefits in the future.
The extraordinary thing about a -10% drop on announcement is that it indicates there are buyers. Whatever your politics, nothing about this deal seems to add up.
Remember Digg? It had 3.8M active users back in 2012, and ended up being sold off for $500k. How is this worth $3B?
It's also very much tied to Trump himself. So, for example, if he loses any of his criminal trials, it could have a massive impact on its value. The whole thing is banking on him winning the election.
So far the Character Assassination Through Lawfare (CATL) strategy hasn't worked; there's no indication that losing in court will cause Trump to lose any support. The case could be made that it's actually helping him. So no, I don't think CATL is going to affect the share price.
On a different note, how can I vote for someone who writes in all caps?
Trump probably doesn’t do irony.
Oh I think Darkisland covered the real irony.
Why should he give them $500 million, when NY already claims it isn't enough? Seizing property is what the AG promised to do from the beginning, and now she is attempting to do so. That is new ground she is treading, and she, more than he, will have to deal with the consequences if Trump wins the appeal. If Trump doesn't win on appeal, then he'd lose the properties anyway. That's basic game theory, so I'm surprised the lawfare experts didn't figure out this part of the game.
The market sets the value and it can change hour-by-hour. Trump can monetize the stock, but the terms of the merger requires Trump not sell any stock for six months. I'm not buying, but all those crying crocodile tears will be chortling if/when the stock price declines post-merger.
Given what Musk paid for Twitter, TS' current market value isn't out of line. But it's not a "windfall" for Trump. As things stand today he created a business and it's worth something. That's basic capitalism. Don't like it? Cry me a river....
Forget Trump, the election, politics, all of that; the ruling against Trump is deeply disturbing. How can you have such a large judgment when no one has been harmed? This is clearly a misuse of the justice system to attack a political opponent. I despise Trump for his comment that the Constitution should be ignored, and I don't plan to vote for him, but I find these legal machinations more disturbing than anything Trump has done or said.
There should be the occasional random word that starts with a lower-case letter-- more Trump-like.
Some of the articles I see claim that this property is a country club or golf course.
He wanted to develop it as a golf course but the local green fascists put the kibosh on that.
It has been a private home since Meyer (Katherine graham's father and owner of WaPo) built it more than a century ago. Probably some irony there.
In some states bankruptcy laws give some protections for private homes.
Anyone know if it's status as a private home affects the seizure?
John Henry
@ Milo — A whiff of realpolitik. The offering comes with a thin float which is easily bid up by his rich supporters so he can sell high after the lockup ( Oct 1). Once he's sold what he needs, they start selling, then take a short term loss when the stock goes to zero, making their political contributions tax deductible, Timothy Mellon will love it.
Rich. God I wish I could trade with you. You know so little but don’t make a secret of it. LOL.
The market sets the value and it can change hour-by-hour. Trump can monetize the stock, but the terms of the merger requires Trump not sell any stock for six months. I'm not buying, but all those crying crocodile tears will be chortling if/when the stock price declines post-merger
Collar transactions dodge lockups. They all do them.
In Trump's defense, he speaks in all caps.
Meade said:
"John Henry said, “as a side benefit we have fascist tears over Musk's purchase of Twitter.”
Meanwhile, yesterday on X, Musk made his positions clear..."
--------------------------------------------------------------
And it shows how insane our 'ruling elite' are that what Musk says is considered absolutely antithetical to everything they stand for.
- Secure borders
- Safe & clean cities
- Don’t bankrupt America with spending
- Racism against any race is wrong
- No sterilization below age of consent
How did those concepts get so beyond the pale?
Trump as usual is spot on. It’s about stripping him of campaign funds using fake Judge , fake AG, and fake application of law.
Frankly my dear, living in the USA is no longer safe.
Michael wrote: “God I wish I could trade with you. You know so little…”
Clearly I didn’t go to Trump University.
So Truth Social has about 2 million users and lost $23M last year but is worth $3Bn Instagram has 2 billion users, made about $9Bn 'net' last year and is estimated to be worth about $100Bn — 33 times more with 1000 times the user base and in profit. It's almost as if the owner of the company is artificially inflating its value, but that would never happen of course.
The biggest institutional investor in the SPAC that’s merging with Truth Social is Susquehanna International Group LLP, which was co-founded by GOP megadonor Jeffrey Yass.
In case you're interested in who owns shares of DWAC:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DWAC/holders/
The deal is poised to give Trump a massive financial lifeline.
phantommut said...
"On a different note, how can I vote for someone who writes in all caps?"haw can you not?
Considering the direction the country is going how can you not?
One thought. Trump’s properties have a real value, that is very different from the value put on the properties by the crooked NYC judge. Far higher. So, the state sells the properties. If they don’t sell them for what they are worth, they are liable for a Takings, unconstitutional under the 5th and 14th Amdts. This could and would give Trump a forum in court to vindicate that the values placed on the properties by the judge were intentionally set crookedly low, in order to maximize damages against Trump. They are going to take a hit anyway, because whoever buys the properties from the state won’t have Trump’s naming rights, and the properties are worth less as a result. But then, we live in a Trump property, and part of the value of it is in the name. You can be sure that if the building is forceably sold, by NY, that there will quickly be a class action suit against them for the lost value.
The weakness in the case has always been that it is a LawFare case, where the assumption always is that it won’t go up on appeal, because they will always lose then. This verdict very likely violates the 5th, 8th, and 14th Amdt Due Process and Excess Fines protections. Compounding this, the requirement that a half a $billion$ bond be posted to allow appeal likely further violates Due Process. LawFare prosecutions are most often successful because the government makes it so dangerous to take the cases to trial, then to appeal, if necessary. With LTG Flynn, it was the prospect of his son, with a grandchild on the way, going to prison. With the J6 prosecutions, it is a combination of money for defense, often already (illegally) being in jail, long potential prison terms, etc. With Trump it was supposed to be that he was overwhelmed, and risked losing a lot of his fortune. Their problem is that they are inside players, always staying inside the box, if barely. Trump thinks outside the box. He got very rich doing it. Musk is even better at it in certain ways. Sure, he may quickly be able to post the bond, but should he? What if he wants to just dump those properties in a down market, and recoup the loss with a Takings claim? What if a bunch of supporters buy them from the state, until the appeal reversed the judgment, then sells them back to him. And, if they pay too much - the state doesn’t get to keep the money - it goes to Trump. The scenarios can go on and on. He’s got probably at least 75 million supporters, and the tighter they crank the screws, the more he gets. This sort of thing brings out the worst in the Democrats, which is why they can’t resist.
“So Truth Social has about 2 million users and lost $23M last year but is worth $3Bn Instagram has 2 billion users, made about $9Bn 'net' last year and is estimated to be worth about $100Bn — 33 times more with 1000 times the user base and in profit. It's almost as if the owner of the company is artificially inflating its value, but that would never happen of course.”
Or, Instagram value is maxed out due to its politics. How do you prove that Truth Social is overvalued in the time that you have? Can the NY courts even get jurisdiction over the transaction? The Trumps are FL, not NY, residents. Maybe they can get the Feds (Garland’s DOJ) interested. That would be a really bad look, with his two prosecutions of Trump for non-crimes blowing up in his face right now, and his appointing Smith, not a Senate confirmed Officer, likely ending up pinning the prosecutions directly on him. We know that the FJB WH worked directly with the GA prosecution team. Did they do the same with the NY cases? That NYT article that Ann posted today suggests that AG Garland May already be getting scared of the whole thing blowing up in his face. He tried to distance himself from it. He appears to have failed. So, the DOJ and the rest of the FJB Administration, are probably now realizing that everything may be blowing up on them, so I suspect that Fed involvement in bailing out the NY court is less likely than not, <8 months from the election.
Trump launched a company that was like “I am going to start a social media platform for Trump fans,” could he get people to buy the stock?
I think that two fundamental lessons of the last few years are:
1. You can get people to buy any stock; and
2. Donald Trump can get people to buy anything.
You are not buying this stock because you have faith in its optimistic cash-flow forecasts; it has not bothered with cash-flow forecasts. You are buying this stock because you like Trump and think that Tech monopoly censorship threatens free speech. Cash flows, valuation, etc., are all irrelevant. It is just vibes.
I think that a more realistic valuation method here is not to worry about cash flows at all — as Trump SPAC clearly does not — and treat the stock simply as a token of public interest in Trump. I just think that the stock price will have nothing to do with the ad revenue; it will be based entirely on how much attention Trump’s fans are paying to Trump.
When the anvil finally drops, it’s going to take another few laps around the first three stages of grief before these Trump fans realize something’s gone wrong.
"This verdict very likely violates the 5th, 8th, and 14th Amdt..."
Three out of 27 (actually, only 25 which are still in effect)? They're not trying very hard are they?
A four time bankrupt CEO is the closest thing that average investors will get to shooting fish in a barrel on Wall Street.
It's actually 6 companies of his that folded, not 4.
On the credit side of the ledger, he has founded something upwards of 450 enterprises that DIDN'T go bankrupt, and employ tens of thousands of people at good wages. One of the best records in the history of American business.
Come Monday, can the NY AG seize some or all of Trump’s stake in Truth Social?
Hardly a lucky break.
Michael said...
"Rich. God I wish I could trade with you. You know so little but don’t make a secret of it. LOL."
Well. You just screwed up my proposed poker game.
Trump Media's merger partner DWAC saw its shares plunge 13% on Friday. Given Trump's stake, that's about a $457 million loss. And it's paper money; Trump can't sell shares unless he gets a lockup waiver, which is very rare and could tank the stock even further.
Trump Media will be the Trump University of the media world.
Re: The biggest institutional investor in the SPAC that’s merging with Truth Social is Susquehanna International Group LLP, which was co-founded by GOP megadonor Jeffrey Yass.
Funneling money to Trump by a major TikTok investor via a non viable social network is peak 2024 Internet.
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