Writes Steven Shepard in "RFK Jr. goes independent. Does that hurt Biden or Trump? Recent polling shows he’d be the most formidable independent candidate since Ross Perot" (Politico).
Last month’s NBC News poll didn’t ask about Kennedy specifically, but it showed a tied race between Biden and Trump in which Trump’s supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate... Polls consistently show Kennedy is more popular with Republicans than Democrats....
So while Democrats may not be enthusiastic about Biden, Kennedy might struggle to pull them away — especially the large numbers of those who say they are worried about Trump returning to the White House....
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40 comments:
Poised or poisoned pill?
"Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is poised to be the most formidable independent presidential candidate in more than two decades"
When he pulls a Nader next year Shepard is going to have egg on his face. The battle lines are drawn, and they don't include an independent in 2024.
Democrats are thrilled that they will have someone to blame their loss on other than the candidates themselves.
Trump's supporters are not going to peel away from Trump.
Will Biden's? That is the question. Some on the left (some - few) do not like Biden - but thye hate Trump - so they will stick with Biden.
RFK jr. might pull in the indies. and indies might be the decider. Trump needs the indies.
Does Biden?
Exactly what I've been saying. R's and I's who are upset at things and "are mad as hell and wont take it anymore" will just vote for RFK. Otherwise, this protest vote would go to Trump. This is particularly true of midwest Catholics.
The D's - blacks, Jews, and other minorities don't give a fuck about RFK. They will vote for Biden. These people vote in lockstep D every election. You could run Trump as a D and they'd vote for him. LOL.
End result - a win for Biden. Which is what RFK wants.
Biden and Trump will pretend RFK doesn't exist in the race for as long as they can. He's going to need to make a splash and prove himself a contender.
I wouldn't vote for RFKjr over any Republican running because he is a hard leftist. But I would vote for him over most Democrats because he is not a swamp creature.
RFK Jr. gives Bill Maher, Sam Harris, and aging white liberals someone to choose as an anti-Biden protest vote. With several years of marionette Joe now in the books, some likely regret their Trump-era actions but are not able to admit it.
I don't see RFK Jr. attracting many/any voters from Trump because he's a return to self-aware leftism rather than the rabid woke lefty blindness of the Trump and Biden eras.
George Wallace was before my time.
But Ross Perot in 1992 got 18% of the vote.
30 years later it’s still difficult to say if he cost Bush re-election.
Formidable third-party candidates who attract wide support focus on a major issue or two that the GOP and Dem candidates don’t.
I think this is a democratic op to keep saying RFKJ would pull more Trump votes.
It makes no sense at all.
There is a lot cope in that excerpt.
Here is the simplest way to approach this- he is a Kennedy, and thus Democrat royalty. The only people who will vote for Kennedy are people who always vote for 3rd parties, people who were going to sit out the race and vote for no one, and Democrats who can't stomach voting for Joe Biden. Kennedy's positions are far to the left on policy issues, so he actually has no appeal to Republicans and conservatives- where they applaud him, though, is for challenging Joe Biden from the Left- the exact same thing happened in 2016 and 2020 when Sanders was trying to win the nomination from Clinton and then from Shit-for-Brains/Kama Sutra/Combbacher/Pocahontas/Buttuvwxyz. We will cheer Kennedy on against Biden, too, but we won't be voting for him.
If you want an independent to hurt Trump's chances, should he be the GOP nominee, then you had better hope Mitt Romney runs 3rd party or whoever finishes second or third in the GOP primaries.
Most Biden voters are voting against Trump, not for Biden.
Many Trump voters voted against Clinton but are now voting for Trump.
The years of lies and insults to and about those who voted against Clinton for Trump, as well as the incompetence of Biden have created many dedicated Trump voters.
Very few Trump voters will vote for Kennedy but Biden voters and Bernie Bros will.
Kennedy got almost 15% of Democrats in primary polling. He'd pull at most a third of them to his column as an independent. However interested Trump voters might be in a Kennedy run, I don't see any significant number abandoning Trump to vote for him. However, if Trump is denied the Republican nomination, many of his voters will give the GOP the middle finger and vote Kennedy or stay home.
That's the danger Kennedy represents--not to candidate Trump, but to every candidate not Trump.
I think the shoe is on the other foot.......the democrat bench is full of NUMBSKULLS.
Does Bernie appeal to anyone besides a cliche of Suburu drivers???
Harvard should send out a Lizzie Warren hit squad. Cause every time she opens her mouth, she devalues a Harvard law degree. She's a moron.
Greater exposure will reveal the nuttiness inside the man.
Kennedy's route of the third-party is a threat to both Old Joe and Trump, but on balance I would say that the mystique of the Kennedy name still has a residual pull among some voters = more of a threat to Biden.
If Kennedy pulls any votes from Trump (or a different Republican nominee) it will be a purely emotional reaction. Kennedy, outside of his stance on covid is nothing but a far left democrat.
He ain't no Ross Perot. He isn't even a Nadler. He's really more a Pat Paulsen, or at most an Angela Davis. Still, the media will make him out to be a colossus of political might right up until he starts taking points away from Biden, when RFK will become an also-ran minor kvetcher in the race.
"Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is poised to be the most formidable independent presidential candidate in more than two decades...."
Everything is historic today. We do not need to learn history because we're told we stand above it.
The American media complex still refuses to give Trump voters credit enough to spot a glib, leftist Democrat with a famous Democrat name association. Sure, they'll pull the handle for a Kennedy without thinking twice about Trump. Of course, they will. They're stupid, I tells ya. They voted for Trump didn't they?
Repeating what I wrote in response to a previous RFKJr blog post:
The Kennedy name is no longer magic. Camelot was sixty years ago and far, far away.
I think, like DeSantis and many other republican candidates, Kennedy will become a "who cares" candidate, neither hurting or helping the "front runners".
Vicki from Pasadena
I started out thinking RFK jr. would hurt Biden.
Now - I'm not so sure.
Both Biden and Trump need unaffiliated and independent voters -
Unaffiliated and indies will probably give RFK jr. a serious look.
" He isn't even a Nadler."
Jerry Nadler? That man is beyond compare!
Would Jerry Nadler even fit into a Pinto?
If Democrats hadn't proved to be shameless, Kennedy would give them a vote to avoid the embarrassment of a second Biden term.
Of course if they weren't shameless there would not have been a Biden first term.
"But Ross Perot in 1992 got 18% of the vote.
30 years later it’s still difficult to say if he cost Bush re-election."
He absolutely cost Bush Sr. the 1992 election. He cost Bush the states of Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, Georgia, Iowa, New Jersey, Maine, and Connecticut. And it is also probable Bush would have won Wisconsin and Michigan without Perot on the ballot, though those two states would have been razor thin victories in such a hypothetical.
Perot was a conservative through and through- much more so than Bush Sr. himself.
And if he, Perot, hadn't dropped out of the race in the middle for a while, he would have cost Bush Sr. Florida, Texas, and Arizona.
As far as I can see, Kennedy seems to be a product of a group of leftist conspiracists that one doesn’t see so much of any more — this was a group that grew out of the pacifist and anti-corporate counter culture movements of the 60s and 70s, some of whom went on to extrapolate from real scandals in the military and corporate world to create full on conspiracy theories around these entities.
The alt-right seems to have largely displaced these groups, as they are far more effective at harnessing social media. Kennedy could appeal to a certain kind of anti-corporate, conspiracy-inclined who spend a lot of time on alt-right forums.
“Jerry Nadler? That man is beyond contempt!
Fixed it for you, Ann.
Repeat: the tell is how hard the media goes after him when it starts to count...
It will be interesting to see who tries to keep him off the ballot and where.
"Does Bernie appeal to anyone besides a cliche of Suburu drivers???"
Bernie "appeals," (if one can call it that), mainly to people who hate Trump and will vote for any Dem candidate running against Trump.
My prediction: Trump will be convicted of a panoply of crimes and will be sent to prison. A couple of election cycles from now, he'll be paroled or pardoned. He'll be barely functional, maybe not at all. Possibly he'll die in prison. Nonetheless, a decrepit living Trump or Trump's corpse will win the Republican slot for president and his campaigning will be transacted with photos of the real Trump and videos of an AI-generated Trump--in each medium, he will be slimmed down, muscled-up, and otherwise tweaked to give him a sparkle he never had in life. The near-dead or real-dead Trump will win the election and he will be the first "and the best ever" AI president in history!
JaimeRoberto said...
"It will be interesting to see who tries to keep him off the ballot and where."
The Democrats will work to keep him off the ballot everywhere but will only be successful in the states where they control the governorship and the office of whichever official controls the election apparatus. So, he will definitely be disqualified in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and the states of the northeast except for New Hampshire. States where Kennedy is most dangerous to Biden/Dem nominee are Virginia, Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, though he would draw most of his votes from the big, deep blue states- if he makes it to the ballot. I figure Kennedy would garner about 2-4% of the vote if he appears on all the ballots- it is enough to cost Biden several states, though.
Ross perot got precisely 0% of the only votes that matter, the state electoral votes.
John Henry
Jerry Nadler? That man is beyond compare!
No, he isn't. That guy's definitely been compared. I can tell. I can always tell.
Fify Cook:
My prediction:
Biden, protected by the Pravda press, will be not be convicted of a panoply of crimes even though he should be sent to prison. Biden is now barely functional, maybe not at all. Possibly he'll die in office. Nonetheless, a decrepit living Biden or Biden's corpse will win the Democratic slot for president and his campaigning will be transacted with photos of the botoxed & embalming fluid- pumped Biden with AI-generated tweaks. He will be puffed up, muscled-up, de-wrinkled, tanned and otherwise tweaked to give him a sparkle he never had in life. The near-dead or real-dead Biden will win the election and he will take our nation down into the abyss once and for all, as the first AI president/Weekend at Bernies zombie in history!
FIFY
Rabel said...
"Would Jerry Nadler even fit into a Pinto?"
He'd never make it into the driver's seat of a Corvair.
All this ignores the high likelihood that Biden will not be on the ticket.
What does a poll show in a race between Newsom, Trump and RFK Jr?
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