Althouse: "A Washington Post analysis of federal data found that vehicles guided by Autopilot have been involved in more than 700 crashes, at least 19 of them fatal..."

October 6, 2023

"A Washington Post analysis of federal data found that vehicles guided by Autopilot have been involved in more than 700 crashes, at least 19 of them fatal..."

"... since its introduction in 2014, including the Banner crash. In Banner’s case, the technology failed repeatedly, his family’s lawyers argue, from when it didn’t brake to when it didn’t issue a warning about the semi-truck in the car’s path."

From "The final 11 seconds of a fatal Tesla Autopilot crash A reconstruction of the wreck shows how human error and emerging technology can collide with deadly results" (WaPo).

The article quotes former National Transportation Safety Board administrator Steven Cliff: "Tesla has decided to take these much greater risks with the technology because they have this sense that it’s like, 'Well, you can figure it out. You can determine for yourself what’s safe' — without recognizing that other road users don’t have that same choice.... If you’re a pedestrian, [if] you’re another vehicle on the road.... do you know that you’re unwittingly an object of an experiment that’s happening?"

46 comments:

RideSpaceMountain said...: Complex Systems Will Not Survive The Competency Crisis.; 10/6/23, 9:52 AM
Ampersand said...: We are all unwitting participants in someone's experiments. Allowing humans to drive is an experiment.
Can the feds compare the number of accidents that occurred in autopilot to the number that would have taken place with human driving?; 10/6/23, 9:56 AM
rehajm said...: This idea was always crap. It isn't hard to assume there was a reason all the Tesla engineers quit together. The arrogance of Musk and the others pushing it feels like the evil government actors during Covid or some other bureaucratic catastrophe. Heck back when liberals still loved Tesla NYT ran that story about the ethics of programing who the car should kill. I think it was blogged here. No accounting for Peltzman Effect, nothing. Like I said all shit...; 10/6/23, 9:58 AM
rehajm said...: ...of course the advocates would argue the software 'saved' so many more lives...they claim, without evidence...; 10/6/23, 10:00 AM
Lem Vibe Bandit said...: Auto pilot is not what people think it is.; 10/6/23, 10:02 AM
rhhardin said...: Compared to what? You get fatal crashes all over the place. Perhaps thousands of them were avoided by self-driving.; 10/6/23, 10:03 AM
Buckwheathikes said...: "do you know that you’re unwittingly an object of an experiment that’s happening?

Wait until these guys hear about mRNA "vaccines." Experimenting. On humans. Medical experimentation on unwitting humans. You know, like Josef Mengele did.; 10/6/23, 10:03 AM
Dave Begley said...: I have never understood the interest in Autopilot.

Too risky.

Too expensive.; 10/6/23, 10:05 AM
Temujin said...: Well...Gavin Newsom vetoed a bill in California banning humanless autonomous trucks. The state wanted to at least have a live human on board. Gavin, bought out by yet another industry, disagreed and vetoed the bill.

I look forward to not being on California roads for the devastation sure to follow. My annual trip to Sonoma/Napa just got problematic. "Honey...do you think that truck coming at us has a human behind the wheel? Or...it is one of those....whoa shiiit!!"

We're not ready for autonomous vehicles on the road. Just as we're not ready to turn over our energy grid to wind turbines and solar panels. We're not there yet. The products are not there yet. They're getting the cart way ahead of the horse.; 10/6/23, 10:06 AM
gahrie said...: 700 crashes in 9 years seems kind of low to me....; 10/6/23, 10:08 AM
Buckwheathikes said...: Washington Post analysis. LOLOLO ... that's rich. The employees of the Washington Post are too fking stupid to analyze anything mathematically. They can't even add or subtract.

How are you "analyzing" data that tells you there were 700 crashes, 19 of them fatal? Exactly what "analysis" was done? They didn't even compare this to other types of vehicles to see whether Tesla's are less likely to be involved in crashes than other non-Autopilot vehicles.

That would have been analysis. But they didn't DO any analysis. If they did, the entire narrative fails. They would have to admit that Tesla's are safer than other types of vehicles.

What's the narrative: ELON MUSK MUST DIE BECAUSE HE BOUGHT TWITTER AND FIRED ALL THE DEMOCRATS WORKING THERE TO END FREE SPEECH. That's the narrative.; 10/6/23, 10:10 AM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: self-driving cars give me the creeps. Time to abandon the idea. Humans are bad enough.; 10/6/23, 10:11 AM
gahrie said...: Let's see a miles-driven per accident comparison between cars with autopilot and cars without. I bet the "with autopilot" are significantly lower.; 10/6/23, 10:11 AM
gahrie said...: We have to ban these new auto-mobiles, they scare the horses and are a threat to pedestrians...; 10/6/23, 10:13 AM
gilbar said...: as Al Smith would say: Let's take a look, at the record..

Autopilot USED to be a wonderful thing. THEN Musk left the reservation; NOW, autopilot is KILLING US; 10/6/23, 10:18 AM
TWWren said...: So, using the same statistics, how many vehicles not guided by autopilot were involved in crashes, and how many fatalities were involved? The point is it doesn't answer the question of how many crashes were caused BECAUSE of autopilot.; 10/6/23, 10:25 AM
TWWren said...: So, using the same statistics, how many vehicles not guided by autopilot were involved in crashes, and how many fatalities were involved? The point is it doesn't answer the question of how many crashes were caused BECAUSE of autopilot.; 10/6/23, 10:25 AM
Gerda Sprinchorn said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 10/6/23, 10:26 AM
TWWren said...: So, using the same statistics, how many vehicles not guided by autopilot were involved in crashes, and how many fatalities were involved? The point is it doesn't answer the question of how many crashes were caused BECAUSE of autopilot.; 10/6/23, 10:26 AM
TWWren said...: So, using the same statistics, how many vehicles not guided by autopilot were involved in crashes, and how many fatalities were involved? The point is it doesn't answer the question of how many crashes were caused BECAUSE of autopilot.; 10/6/23, 10:26 AM
TWWren said...: So, using the same statistics, how many vehicles not guided by autopilot were involved in crashes, and how many fatalities were involved? The point is it doesn't answer the question of how many crashes were caused BECAUSE of autopilot.; 10/6/23, 10:27 AM
RideSpaceMountain said...: Speaking of things with an autopilot, and how those things will not survive the competency crisis, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, and United Airlines are among a growing list of air carriers that have grounded aircraft in the wake of a fake jet engine parts scandal that has rocked the aviation industry.

"Most airlines are not run by pilots or engineers or those with a passion for aviation. They are run by business school graduates who focus on cost cutting. Did any executives intentionally make the decision to use fake parts? Of course not. But did they relax their due diligence by reducing personnel expenses in that critical area? Quite possibly. Did an obsession with expense control allow a fake company’s fake parts to find their way into these airlines’ engines? Almost certainly."; 10/6/23, 10:28 AM
Dude1394 said...: Washington post presents their Elon musk bashing of n line with their democrat masters. Now how many crashes without autopilot have happened. As usual, democrats don’t give data, they give propaganda.; 10/6/23, 10:45 AM
John Holland said...: Thanks for bringing this to my attention. It doesn't sound like a rational examination of the risks of Autopilot. It sounds more like part of the full-bore Anti-Elon political attack instigated from the White House on down to every federal agency, propagated by the corrupt "press". Now why would I say something **crazy** like that?

Well, 19 deaths in ten years is what? about 2 a year? Meanwhile, in non-Autopilot cars, there have been -- oh, let's see -- about 350,000 deaths in the same period. Or about 35,000 deaths per year.

In what I would consider a proper context, Autopilot doesn't sound particularly dangerous; in fact it sounds like, if we care about lives lost due to the operation of automobiles, we should convert every car to Autopilot ASAP. The numbers don't lie!

An examination of car crash statistics is interesting. The worst year for auto deaths in the US was 1972: more than 54,000 killed. Now we have only 2/3 that number, despite having more than twice the number of vehicles on the road. Computer-assisted driving has the potential to slash even that number drastically. So sure, lets demonize the tech and the CEO for short term political gain, and to hell with the next 400,000 deaths. Priorities!; 10/6/23, 10:47 AM
Gerrard787 said...: “Auto pilot is not what people think it is.”

Has anyone told the airline pilots?; 10/6/23, 10:49 AM
Jake said...: Welp. I liked the old jarts better too. Idiots that don't pay attention ruin cool shit for the rest of us.; 10/6/23, 10:50 AM
chuck said...: Alcohol, drowsiness, cellphone distraction, and age are probably as risky. I do like getting warnings, but I wouldn't rely on them.

The war on Musk escalates. He must kneel before Zod.; 10/6/23, 10:55 AM
Aggie said...: Sorry, can you repeat that, please?; 10/6/23, 11:06 AM
Buckwheathikes said...: "The point is it doesn't answer the question of how many crashes were caused BECAUSE of autopilot."

They admit in the story (many paragraphs after they've defamed Elon Musk) that they don't even know if Autopilot was on during many of these crashes.

It's BS "journalism" designed to hurt Elon Musk because he isn't letting Democrats fly their freak flags and is letting Twitter users fact-check the alleged President of the United States when he spews out his lies.

Latest one ... Biden says he convinced Strom Thurmond to vote for the Civil Rights Act. Immediately fact-checked by Twitter users because Thurmond voted AGAINST the civil rights act. All Biden does is lie and of course the 4 billionaires who own most of the major media in the United States let him because they want a DOLT as president.; 10/6/23, 11:08 AM
Leland said...: Meh, Democrats have also decided what is safe. They allow thousands of undocumented people to cross our border, other thousands to live on the street and shoot up drugs with government provided needles, and hundreds of others to take whatever they want from stores without recognizing the harmful effects it has to limited supplies of goods and services. If you are a citizen, you are just another mouth to feed, child to educate, elderly person needing care with less resources... You're unwittingly an object of an experiment that's happening.

But hey, pay attention to this evil billionaire Musk, because he doesn't pay up to our campaigns when he's told and won't help us control speech on demand.; 10/6/23, 11:32 AM
Leland said...: 19 fatalities huh? Speaking of experiments, how many carjackings in Washington DC in the past week? Are those safe?; 10/6/23, 11:35 AM
Scott Patton said...: "gahrie said...
Let's see a miles-driven per accident comparison "

Yep. Per mile local and per mile highway too. I don't see how any number of accidents mean anything without that. At one point there was only one accident. Did that make the headlines?; 10/6/23, 11:46 AM
BUMBLE BEE said...: List cell phone driving accident stats accurately, Maybe I'll care.; 10/6/23, 11:51 AM
Big Mike said...: No paywall for a change!

My first thought is that 700 crashes, only 19 fatal, over 9 years is not that many (though I concede that I might feel otherwise if one of the 19 fatal accidents involved someone I cared about). A more telling statistic would be how many cars equipped with Autopilot are on the road and how many have been involved in accidents. Crappy journalism but what can one expect from the Post?

In my strongly-held opinion Tesla should start by rethinking its sensor suite — I have been told that sensors do not detect when the car is headed towards a ditch or even a cliff. I don’t know if that’s true, but I also note that the Banner accident could not have happened if the sensors could detect that there was an obstacle at windshield height, though there was nothing ahead between bumper height and hood height. I note in passing that some 18 wheelers I see on the highway have a plastic skirt below the trailer’s frame. This is to cut down on aerodynamic drag, I assume, but it might have saved Banner’s life. Not that I fault the semi’s owner, who had no way to know that an idiot would let his car try to drive under his trailer. (Hey! It works in “Fast and Furious” movies, doesn’t it?).

I am a retired software project manager, and I can attest that the concept of “fail safe,” meaning that if things go wrong the system should default to a safe condition, is very difficult to convey to software developers. Fortunately for me I worked for a government contractor so there often were mechanical or electrical engineers around who could help. As relates to the Tesla Autopilot, if the system detects that its sensor suite is less than 100% it should give a loud audio and a visual warning and disconnect. Likewise, it should disconnect if it detects that the driver does not have his or her hands on the wheel (as Banner did not).

One final thought is that people correctly say that flight safety regulations in the airline industry are written in blood. We learned about outward-opening cargo doors on passenger planes that from an DC-10 crash outside Paris and a 747 accident where 9 passengers were sucked out of the aircraft over the Pacific Ocean near Hawaii. Are we willing to accept rare accidents as the price of achieving a future, safer, state? Since I hardly ever even use my cruise control, I have one opinion. Other commentators may differ from me.; 10/6/23, 11:56 AM
n.n said...: Heuristic, closed intelligence (model) applied in a dynamic world. Catastrophic climate... Deja vu.; 10/6/23, 12:05 PM
Yancey Ward said...: It is likely that Autopilot had fewer accidents/driven mile than other Teslas driven by their owners. That would have been an interesting analysis of data which, of course, given that Musk is now persona non grata with the Left, WaPo's low IQ writers refused to do.

However, there is a big, mostly undiscussed issue here with automated driving systems- it moves the liability for accidents onto the car company rather than on the driver where it has mostly rested for 120 years. While I believe that automated driving vehicles will, in the end, have far fewer accidents, I am not convinced that the overall cost of liability will decrease, and I can definitely see how it might increase instead. When you sue an individual for a vehicular accident, there is a hard cap on what you can recover in damages- namely the individual's ability to pay through insurance and out of pocket. That limit is much, much higher if the plaintiff is suing a car manufacturer for the death of a spouse or parent. Where an accident today might garner a 1 million dollar real judgment from a John Doe defendant, it might garner a 20 million dollar judgment from Tesla or Ford, for example. How much liability are car companies and their insurers willing to bear to get automated cars on the road?; 10/6/23, 12:15 PM
Not Sure said...: The only confidence I have in "a Washington Post analysis of federal data" is that it will reveal the writer's total ignorance of even the most basic aspects of data analysis.; 10/6/23, 12:33 PM
Rabel said...: A sly commentary from TWWren on the failures of modern computer technology.; 10/6/23, 12:45 PM
Big Mike said...: Most airlines are not run by pilots or engineers or those with a passion for aviation. They are run by business school graduates who focus on cost cutting.

Alaska Airlines learned about too much cost cutting the hard way. After their flight 261 crashed inverted into the Pacific Ocean thanks to a poorly lubricated jackscrew freezing the elevator trim control, they lost a multimillion dollar aircraft and were forced to pay out an estimated $300 million in lawsuits. Over being too chintzy to have a mechanic slather an adequate amount of grease on a critical control part.; 10/6/23, 12:56 PM
Big Mike said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 10/6/23, 12:56 PM
Anthony said...: Buckwheathikes said...Washington Post analysis. LOLOLO

That should be in the pantheon of:
"Top. Men."
"Experts say. . . ."; 10/6/23, 1:07 PM
boatbuilder said...: BE VERY SKEPTICAL about a "reconstruction" put together by the experts hired by either side.

It seems to me that if the technology didn't work, there would be far more than 700 crashes and 19 fatalities since 2014. Thats about 90 crashes and 2 deaths per year.; 10/6/23, 1:28 PM
boatbuilder said...: Let me state for the record that I am not a fan of drunk driving. And I'm on the fence about electric cars.

But autopilot may be a lot safer way for someone who has had a few to get home. No?

Well, they shouldn't be driving, you say. Right, but they do.

I have travelled as a passenger in a Tesla on autopilot, in a waterside area at night with winding, narrow roads. I was impressed. I didn't die.; 10/6/23, 1:37 PM
jim5301 said...: " I have never understood the interest in Autopilot. Too risky."

Dave - society evolves by taking risks. Space Travel? Columbus? Golden Gate Bridge? Except perhaps in the non-risk-taking state of Nebraska.

That's not to say that Tesla at this point in time should have the right to put innocent people at risk who didn't have a choice. Shame on Mr. Musk.; 10/6/23, 1:51 PM
Free Manure While You Wait! said...: Up next, Elon Musk sued by the Department of Transportation.

They hate his commitment to fee speech because it circumvents the government's narrative. Progressives say that X is now right wing propaganda, which is clearly a blatant lie since as a Minnesotan, I follow Governor Walz, Senators Crag and Klobuchar, Congresswoman Ilhan Omar, Attorney General Ellison, President Biden, VP Harris, and my councilwoman Vetaw -- Progressives all. And they post every day. I also follow Greta Thunberg, which isn't easy, because it takes an incredible amount of inner strength not to reply to her posts with, SHOW US YOUR TITS!; 10/6/23, 3:38 PM
MayBee said...: We have newly driverless cars where we live in LA. One stopped before it turned right as my husband was in a crosswalk this morning. Better than 99% of the tourists driving; 10/7/23, 1:07 AM