June 26, 2023
"They wanted Russians to fight each other. They rubbed their hands, dreaming of taking revenge for their failures at the front and during the so-called counteroffensive. But they miscalculated."
Said Vladimir Putin, quoted in "Russia-Ukraine War/A Visibly Angry Putin Stresses Failure of Wagner Revolt/The Russian president made brief public remarks on Monday, his first since the end of the short-lived rebellion by the Wagner mercenary group and its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin" (NYT).
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21 comments:
We're in the final stages of something here.
Prigozhin was the one who returned an American body saying he died at his machine gun like a soldier, which suggests Prigozhin is the honorable one in this development.
Vlad is usually the epitome of deadpan. Not in that video. You can tell he's agitated. Big time. I don't speak Russian but he is clearly enunciating specific words repeatedly to lend them importance.
The internet has been filled the last 48 hours with this "hurr durr 4d chess he moved them closer to Kiev!" nonsense, as if moving 20k fighters within 100km of the city they couldn't take and hold last year with 2 and half MOD divisions 10km outside the city makes any difference at all.
Well, there are only 3 real options here for what happened:
(1) Prighozin had a mental breakdown and did something reckless and incredibly stupid- tried to take out the Putin government with 2500 guys a 1000 miles from Moscow;
(2) Prighozin had assurances from unnamed parties that convinced him that if he acted, they would be able to physically and diplomatically support his and his men's efforts at taking Moscow. It might not be a coincidence that Prighozin did this a couple of weeks after the Ukraine offensive was launched, and the idea might have been that Prighozin was to act after the Ukrainians made a breakthrough (Mark Wauck's theory, which is plausible). However, the Ukrainian offensive didn't accomplish anything, and Prighozin either got impatient or was prodded to move before a breakthrough happened;
(3) Prighozin and Putin put on a play.
I don't think (3) is really plausible, but either (1) or (2) is the likely scenario. I tend, still, to think it is (1), but if it is (2), then NATO was involved in this clusterfuck. Number (2) really is the sort of silly plan that might come out of Washington D.C. Ask the Venezuelans.
If the Russian war machine were as invincible as advertised, this mutiny would not have happened. Ethnic Russians and ethnic Ukrainians are both in a demographic death spiral. The Chinese have to see the limited utility of their alliance with a world power that can only deliver on one promise: thermonuclear Armageddon. It is the weaknesses of the Chinese and Russians that ought to frighten us. If the only strategy left to them is nuclear blackmail, that's what we can expect.
Putin’s more right than wrong, assuming his remarks are accurately translated.
rhhardin: "Prigozhin was the one who returned an American body saying he died at his machine gun like a soldier, which suggests Prigozhin is the honorable one in this development."
Prigozhin was a hot dog vendor that Vladimir allowed to become his chief caterer, then Vlad handed Prigozhin a grocery store concession, then Vlad handed him some St Petersburg gambling concessions and later, handed the Wagner group to him for exploiting Africa resources and "Blackwater"-like ops opportunities even though Prigozhin knew nothing about military ops.
Vlad handed Prigozhin billions...made him an ultra-wealthy oligarch.
Prigozhin has been described as an absolute murderous slug by western leaders and has spent years blabbing all kinds of contradictory and bombastic claims.
Then Prigozhin mounts a "coup" and supposedly calls it off because of a few military leadership change concessions from Vlad...and is allowed to head to Belarus...where Vlad just, supposedly, moved nukes?
And Prigozhin is now some noble "honorable" stud muffin.
Yeah, something tells me the western "experts" dont have the first clue about what is going on there.
Russian authorities say they seized trucks which were parked outside Prigozhin's Moscow business HQ and which had $46 million dollars in cash. The Prigo explained that he was gathering this cash in order to assist the families of his soldiers.
Some say The Prigo's guys stopped in at a local nuke storage site on the road to Moscow and picked up a couple of nukes for Prigo to play with. That's when they turned around and headed back to Rostov on the Don.
Putin isn't mad at The Prigo. He's said so himself.
Fun Fact
At the Topkapi palace in Istanbul there is one courtyard called the courtyard of the Janissaries. The Janissaries were Greeks and Slavs kidnapped as children and raised to be Turkish warriors. They began to defy the Sultan's authority which he ignored as they expected because he needed their warrior skills as they knew. Then one day in 1826 he called them together in this enclosed courtyard and had thousands killed there, shot down with cannons and muskets. And all the rest of the Janissaries throughout the kingdom were hunted down, and killed for defying the Sultan.
The Ukrainians say that there aren't two sides in the Putin/Prigozhin dispute, just Russians and More Russians who should kill each other quickly.
Prigozhin is supposedly going to Belarus. There's two possible outcomes here:
1: Prigozhin gets shot / poisoned / shoved out a window
2: Prigozhin takes charge of Belarus, pulling it out of Putin's control.
Until that's decided, nothing is over. If it's #2, the Putin's war in Ukraine is over
Note for those who live to give Putin blow jobs: no, the people of Belarus do not like being Putin's slaves. So dont' expect them to fight to kill Prigozhin.
Last article I read, the Wagner Group people got close to Moscow, and turned around of their own choice.
If true, then Putin's characterization is false. Which would be a huge surprise
/sarc
So, a rebellion that wasn't so much a rebellion as a labor action?
It's ironic that regardless of the outcome of this proxy war, it's almost certain to result in a more modern, more professional, Russian military down the road. Which is just one of the reasons why it would have been better to leave these corrupt fascist countries to their 18th century bullshit.
Drago said...
Vlad handed Prigozhin billions...made him an ultra-wealthy oligarch.
Prigozhin has been described as an absolute murderous slug by western leaders and has spent years blabbing all kinds of contradictory and bombastic claims.
So why did your love master give "billions" to this "murderous slug"? Do explain Drago what was going through your boyfriend's mind when he did that
rhhardin said...
Prigozhin was the one who returned an American body saying he died at his machine gun like a soldier, which suggests Prigozhin is the honorable one in this development.
=========
where was the machine gun/assault weapon at the time of the American death?
Greg: "So why did your love master give "billions" to this "murderous slug"? Do explain Drago what was going through your boyfriend's mind when he did that:
"love master"
"boyfriend"
Its like listening to MSNBC...only dumber.
Can't blame Mr. Pre-go-shin for wanting to strike back on his way out.
Russian MoD decided to put Wagner personnel on State payroll, thereby taking control of them after renaming Bakhmut to it's original Russian Artemovsk. Then gave Wagner Soldiers a deadline to sign contracts with Russian army. Mr. P would no longer be getting paid for his private military company in Ukraine.
Billionaire Oligarchs can be tough customers sometimes. And once again Russia defies the West to understand them.
Maybe Joe Rogan could interview Mr. P so we could hear the story from his side?
Drago said...
Its like listening to MSNBC...only dumber.
Yes, that is EXACTLY what it's like listening to someone defending KGB Col Putin.
But the level of stupid required to claim to love America, to be a proud American, to want to make America great again, but then turn around and embrace a guy who hates America, who has spent all his life trying to destroy America, who backed Hillary in 2016 (if he wanted her to lose, he would have released thousands of her emails before the election), whose beloved Party is responsible for creating the American Left, is so massive that someone that stupid wouldn't be able to type.
Since you can type, it has to be something else that drives you to embrace Comrade Putin. If it's not homoerotic issues, what is it?
I certainly can't be anything he's said publicly. no one can actually be stupid enough to believe that KGB Col Putin says that shit in good faith
Yancy Ward,
(3) was my first go to. There have been rumblings of opposition to Putin over the last couple years. Intensified since the Ukraine invasion. What better way to smoke out the plotters than running a fake coup and seeing who supports it?
Still, If I were Prigozhin I would stay and ground level in buildings and have someone else start my car.
"Prigozhin was a hot dog vendor "
And Zelenskyy was a stand-up comedian. Do you have a point beyond character assassination?
Wait, I thought that there is actually no Ukraine, and no such thing as a Ukrainian people.
Ergo, it's Russians fighting Russians all the way down and from the gitgo.
wildswan mentions the Janissaries--look up the Streltsi in Russian history.
All kinds of possible parallels spring to my mind--Night of the Long Knives . . . July 20?
The Kirov Affair. How did I forget that one?
Free Manure While You Wait!: "Prigozhin was a hot dog vendor"
And Zelenskyy was a stand-up comedian. Do you have a point beyond character assassination?"
Why did you choose that particular fragment of a longer paragraph to break out and de-contextualize?
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