From "Silicon Valley Bank Depositor Bailout Makes Mockery of ‘Too Big to Fail'" by Philip Klein (National Review).
I'm not linking to this because I agree with it. I don't know what the right answer was or what the real risks were.
Here's what Elizabeth Warren says, "Silicon Valley Bank Is Gone. We Know Who Is Responsible" (NYT): "These recent bank failures are the direct result of leaders in Washington weakening the financial rules.... Had Congress and the Federal Reserve not rolled back the stricter oversight, S.V.B. and Signature would have been subject to stronger liquidity and capital requirements to withstand financial shocks. They would have been required to conduct regular stress tests.... Repealing the 2018 legislation that weakened the rules for banks like S.V.B. must be an immediate priority for Congress.... [I]f we are to deter this kind of risky behavior... those responsible not be rewarded.... [E]xecutives must also be held accountable... Where needed, Congress should empower regulators to recover pay and bonuses."
95 comments:
it's Important to realize, that RULES ARE RULES.. and the Number ONE RULE IS:
Democrat contributors don't have to follow the rules
to be Fair;
Some People think; that these folk would have been treated the same if they were republicans..
The word to describe THOSE People is: CLUELESS
"Businessmen, they drink my wine, plowmen dig my earth
None of them along the line know what any of it is worth”
Those responsible are those that lowered interest rates to zero and spent a lot of borrowed money with COVID as the excuse. This is a predictable result.
$250,000 is too low in today's world. You don't have to be particularly wealthy not just to have, but to need safe funds greater than that. Even many small businesses couldn't make payroll at that amount.
Hey Senator Warren -- I agree that many banks and Wall St. firms are mismanaged. Let's all let SVB fail and force Silicon Valley to make more calculated, strategic investments. Senator Warren, also take a look at the inept management of 95% of universities nationwide, 95% of medical firms/pharma nationwide, and 95% of unions nationwide.
Fake Native Americans with careers built on lies and half-truths apparently love to criticize other smoke-and-mirrors people. It serves to distract and avoid accountability.
[E]xecutives must also be held accountable
Given that the responsible executives seem to have been more concerned about having a nice float in the Gay Pride Parade than in running a sound financial company, Warren might get some conservatives on board with this one. Which is why she probably doesn't mean it.
Biden created 6 trillion pandemic dollars out of nothing.
We can’t magically expect that’s not going to create any consequences.
The hangover has started.
Leave it to Liz to center her focus on 2018, when Trump was in office. I guess the "too big to fail" concept was okay with her back in 2009. Now, in 2023, with Biden and the Democrats, we have "No Tech account over $250,000 too small to fail." But heck, blame it all on Trump. Why not? They blame everything else on him.
I wish Warren could walk us through what rule was changed, how SVB responded, and how that response caused the problem. Otherwise its just boilerplate from a fake Indian.
Typical twaddle from Warren.
The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates. Why? To combat inflation. How? By unemploying people.
How do you unemploy people? You put businesses out of business. How? You raise interest rates. But what if you raise interest rates too fast?
SVB takes in deposits. By LAW, it's required to invest those deposits in longer-term low-interest-bearing securities ... such as T-bills, or US government issued mortgage-backed securities. These are literally the safest investments that can be made in the United States today. These are US Government securities. They pay 1-2% interest.
Well, if you buy them ... and then the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to 7%, now you are LOSING money on those bonds. Their prices fall in relation to interest rates rising.
This means your bank has less capital.
The Federal Reserve is literally pulling the legs out from underneath its own member banks. It knows this will happen. These banks are no longer in business then to lend money to businesses.
Voila ... unemployment and misery. Brought to you by the Democrat Party.
This is all part of Dodd-Frank Act banking, which Warren supports.
Oh, by the way, Signature Bank also failed this morning.
That's the bank that Barney Frank sits on.
You know, Barney Frank ... the Frank in Dodd-Frank Act.
Lets bail out all the things!
It’s simple. The bank in California and the one they closed in NY has high level Dem donors. Of course they will “make things whole” to keep that money rolling in.
Compare and contrast the reaction to the derailment and toxic spill in Deplorable land. Plain as say the difference.
Two tiers of justice and response.
SVB's risk manager was a "lesbian of color". SVB was touting their ESG bona fides. By definition, these are the Good People. Hard to imagine them taking advantage of the weakened rules Warren is referring to.
Add a joint owner to get up to $ 500,000.
Why I would care what Elizabeth Warren thinks about this is beyond me. I'll pay more attention to what someone considerably more knowledgeable and intelligent thinks, such as Tyler Cowen's post this morning over at MarginalnRevolution blog. There he says in part:
". Furthermore, if the FDIC keeps on increasing its protections in the quest for financial stability, that means a larger FDIC, a larger regulatory apparatus, perhaps higher capital requirements, and over time higher premia for banks to pay to the FDIC. (As a side note, worthy of another post, we are also hearing calls that somehow VCs need to be regulated now, if they are going to “receive bailouts”.)
As that scenario unfolds, there will be all the more incentives to supply more lending and also deposit-taking services outside the formal and more heavily regulated banking sector. Rather than pushing more resources into the larger banks, this policy would push additional resources outside the formal banking system altogether. That would mean less power, oversight and scrutiny from the Fed and also from other regulatory bodies. "
Personally, I'd prefer to limit bailouts rather than suffer more government regulation, which has its own costs, but I understand how reasonable men may differ.
There seem to be no good answers, except to improve the curriculum at HBS and Wharton, etc. Do they not teach about risk?
I believe I just misnamed Tyler's blog. It is of course Marginal Revolution.
My career was AG Coops
I retired from one of the states largest with +700 location.
We dumped +1 million bushels of grain a day, in harvest season. That means we could deliver to exporters and processors, by truck, rail, and barge, that much. $6 corn, $14 soybeans.
That is just to illustrate the amount of cash on hand needed to operate. Far exceeding the $250,000 FDIC protection of deposits.
I think it's standard practice to pay executive bonuses just BEFORE bankruptcy. These bonuses help keep valuable executives with the company while it reorganizes. If the company liquidates, however, there is no real reason (other than fraud) to make these bonuses.
From Obamacares to other price inflation and sustainable Green schemes, with fiduciary responsibility second to social progress and other considerations.
First, Warren is wrong. This has been the cry since the 1980s when the S+Ls went under. The regulations were sufficient, but Washington (meaning Congress) choked off the funds for *enforcement.* The Federal Home Loan Bank Board was unable to hire and retain a sufficient number of auditors to monitor risky S+Ls. The S+Ls were able to hire auditors from the FSLIC at double the salary or more. You can pass all the laws you want, but it takes enforcement to mean anything. And Jim Wright and company were making a lot of money from the industry to allow auditors to police it. The same is true today.
Second, SVB was killed by a combination of Joe Biden's disastrous fiscal policies and SVB's failure to recognize that inflation was ramping up. As Andy Kessler noted yesterday WSJ online:
[[ There was no way SVB was going to initiate $131 billion in new loans. So the bank put some of this new capital into higher-yielding long-term government bonds and $80 billion into 10-year mortgage-backed securities paying 1.5% instead of short-term Treasurys paying 0.25%.
This was mistake No. 1. SVB reached for yield, just as Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers did in the 2000s. With few loans, these investments were the bank’s profit center. SVB got caught with its pants down as interest rates went up.
Everyone, except SVB management it seems, knew interest rates were heading up. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been shouting this from the mountain tops. Yet SVB froze and kept business as usual, borrowing short-term from depositors and lending long-term, without any interest-rate hedging.
The bear market started in January 2022, 14 months ago. Surely it shouldn’t have taken more than a year for management at SVB to figure out that credit would tighten and the IPO market would dry up. Or that companies would need to spend money on salaries and cloud services. Nope, and that was mistake No. 2. SVB misread its customers’ cash needs. Risk management seemed to be an afterthought. The bank didn’t even have a chief risk officer for eight months last year. CEO Greg Becker sat on the risk committee.]]
Well, DEI seemed to be the priority for SVB.
SVB had NO head of 'risk assessment' for nine months before it collapsed... as woke boss for Europe, Middle East and Africa was busy organizing a month-long Pride campaign and a 'Lesbian Visibility Day'
The collapsed Silicon Valley Bank had no risk assessment head for nine months
The bank's previous head left in April 2022, her replacement wasn't named until January
While the bank's European risk officer is accused of being more focused on diversity efforts
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11848705/Woke-head-risk-assessment-Silicon-Valley-Bank-accused-prioritizing-diversity-issues.html
Jay Ersapah, the boss of financial risk management at SVB’s UK branch, launched initiatives such as the company’s first month-long Pride campaign and a new blog emphasizing mental health awareness for LGBTQ+ youth.
“The phrase ‘You can’t be what you can’t see’ resonates with me,’” Ersapah was quoted as saying on the company website.
“As a queer person of color and a first-generation immigrant from a working-class background, there were not many role models for me to ‘see’ growing up.”
Her efforts as the company’s European LGBTQIA+ Employee Resource Group co-chair earned her a spot on SVB’s “outstanding LGBT+ Role Model Lists 2022,” a list shared in a company post just four months before the bank was shut down by federal authorities over liquidity fears.
In addition to instituting SVB’s first “safe space catch-up” — which encouraged employees to share their coming-out stories — and serving on LGBTQ+ panels around the world, Ersapah spent time over the last year serving as a director for diversity role models and volunteering as a mentor for migrant leaders.
“I feel privileged to co-chair the LGBTQ+ ERG and help spread awareness of lived queer experiences, partner with charitable organizations, and above all, create a sense of community for our LGBTQ+ employees and allies.”
Ersapah couldn’t immediately be reached for comment.
SVB was abruptly shut down Friday by the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation shortly after the bank disclosed it had taken a $1.8 billion hit from a $21 billion fire sale of its bond holdings.
It faced a cash crunch due to surging interest rates, and a recent meltdown in the tech sector led many customers to pare their deposits.
On Saturday, Home Depot co-founder Bernie Marcus insinuated that “woke” policies like the ones launched by Ersapah could have led to SVB’s dramatic failure.
“I feel bad for all of these people that lost all their money in this woke bank. You know, it was more distressing to hear that the bank officials sold off their stock before this happened. It’s depressing to me,” he told Fox News’ Neil Cavuto.
“Who knows whether the Justice Department would go after them? They’re a woke company, so I guess not. And they’ll probably get away with it.”
The businessman blamed the Biden administration for pushing companies and banks to consider global warming over shareholder returns, resulting in catastrophic economic pitfalls.
“These banks are badly run because everybody is focused on diversity and all of the woke issues and not concentrating on the one thing they should, which is, shareholder returns,” Marcus said.
“Instead of protecting the shareholders and their employees, they are more concerned about the social policies. And I think it’s probably a badly run bank.
“They’ve been there for a lot of years. It’s pathetic that so many people lost money that won’t get it back.”
The impact of SVB’s collapse is not entirely clear, but experts theorize it could impact the future of regional and mid-size banks across the county.
https://nypost.com/2023/03/11/silicon-valley-bank-pushed-woke-programs-ahead-of-collapse/
It would be impossible for a company of any size to do business if they had to split up all of their money into $250k or less chunks.
Investors in bank stock should lose.
I have no problem with saving depositors because this is not billionaires getting screwed.
It's admins, janitors, sales managers, food service workers, etc.
Maybe we need to have commercial banks that deal with companies only.
Make the insured amount $10M or whatever number.
The $250k certainly hasn't kept up with inflation...
I don't agree with Mitt Romney very often, but I think his take on the SVB is the right one. Investors and owners of the bank lose everything. Individuals with smallish deposits are made whole. Companies that used the bank are helped to prevent them from going belly-up.
I don't care what Elizabeth Warren has to say on the matter. She's pretty much divorced from reality.
Speaking of Stanford, Sorry, No Empathy, No Bailouts And YES I MEAN IT
The so-called "Chief Risk Officer" at SVB had a masters in..... public administration. Anyone care to bet if she passed any form of advanced mathematics -- you know, like for example Calculus or Statistics? Do you think she understood exponents and why this graph made clear that concentration of risk and duration was stupid and likely to blow up in everyone's face -- including hers?
Redistributive responsibility.
"I'm not linking to this because I agree with it. I don't know what the right answer was or what the real risks were. "
Just a guess, but I think this bank was acting as a venture capitalist investor with depositor money. For those on the left who don't know; Venture capitalists invest their own money or the money of willing partners on ventures that have no credit track record for a percentage of the company. Banks are not supposed to do that. Why? Because the money they risk belongs to the depositors.
Of course there could be a more criminal reason, but eventually the chickens have to come home to roost. I know that confuses our progressives. But at the end of the day the books must balance or misery and tears ensue.
Apparently, Silicon Valley Bank has been operating without a Chief Risk Officer for quite a long time now, which makes sense when you think about it - with the "Biden my time & Yellen'" vaudeville team backing you up, you don't actually have any risk.
I guess the Silicon Valley Tech recipients of the Fed's largesse will be in charge of censoring any of the taxpayers that dare to complain about it. Don't worry, the Feds will provide the lists.
Depositors aren't investors, they're just schlubs relying on the Feds to regulate the banks so that they're safe not to worry about.
The point of the 250K limit on coverage is to prevent shaky banks from offering huge interest rates to attract cash to support their ponzi scheme, making a bigger and bigger failure in the meantime.
Here there are no high interest rates offered, just somebody who spotted that they held low rate federal securities and started a run on the bank. The run is because of the 250K limit - get your money out now or you can never get it out.
That's another system instability, different from the original one, and it's fixed by doing away with the limit here. Which they did. Good.
On the assumption that Liawatha is speaking truth this time, please explain why Barney Frank, alleged author of the Dodd-Frank banking bill, allowed the bank he governed to be in this position. If the rule was so damned great why didn’t Barney insist the bank follow it? And what “weakening” is she alleging allowed this risk right under Barney’s nose?
SVB takes in deposits. By LAW, it's required to invest those deposits in longer-term low-interest-bearing securities ... such as T-bills, or US government issued mortgage-backed securities. These are literally the safest investments that can be made in the United States today. These are US Government securities. They pay 1-2% interest.
Well, if you buy them ... and then the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to 7%, now you are LOSING money on those bonds. Their prices fall in relation to interest rates rising.
This means your bank has less capital.
And, if you're THE tech bank (as SVB became, I understand), your actual clients are not the tech companies but the VC companies who fund them, all very financially savvy people with LOTS of risky investments outstanding. Any hint of trouble and they're pulling their $$$.
My kid is a baby banker at SVB. He was so furious with them for over-investing in the mortgage-backed securities referenced in the quoted excerpt above - and indeed they did invest a LOT in those. But it was the bank run that seems to have caused this crisis, not a lack of solvency, as (apparently) the FDIC seems to believe that SVB's assets, liquidated, will indeed cover all their big depositors. (This is how it's different from an across-the-board "every deposit is now insured no matter how big" scenario.)
SVB had to sell some of these securities at a loss to cover some cash crunch, but my understanding is that they were only like 10% losses at that point. Ugly but not life-threatening. The VC clients got antsy, though, and started demanding their deposits. While all this was going down on Friday, another friend of ours was getting texts from HIS client saying they were trying to pull out their $1B and SVB wasn't taking their calls. It doesn't take a lot of those before things snowball out of control and that's just what happened.
I have no doubt that I've misunderstood or miscommunicated part or all of the above - I'm the sole non-finance person in the family. My immediate concern is that my kid will keep his job for 45 days; my longer-term concern is whether any banks will be hiring; my tertiary concern is the downstream effects on the economy at large.
Problems were many.
Free money for years and years- money at zero interest incentivized banks, VCs, and start ups to spend ridiculously, take ridiculous risks, burn through their cash instead of hoarding it for times of need (as any new business needs to do) or reinvesting it into needed areas of business. However, they did manage to hire 5-10x the employees many of them needed, along with lavish benefits.
Elizabeth Warren is the last person anyone should go to in times of economic struggles. Regulations were in place. Regulators need to be fired. The regulators had the information in front of them that this bank was heading underwater. They signed off on it. They were used to the era of free money and zero interest rates- even though the interest rates have been up and continuing to go up for months.
This will put a massive hole in the development of new tech- both that which is newly established and that yet to get funded. Many startups will shut down. Thousands of very bright people will be out there looking for work, and they may find it. But some great ideas that were just beginning to develop will not be seen. And on the whole, our tech sector may lose years at the precise time we're in a race with the rest of the world...and China.
I love how Biden blamed it on Trump. Because...it's what a child does.
I am surprised that given all the financial publications, not to mention financial experts on twitter (Roubini, Taleb et al) that the link is to The National Review. This is taking two giant steps backwards in terms of understanding. It is not a bailout -- shareholders will get wiped out and probably most debt holders as well. 8500 people are losing their jobs and likely a huge chunk of their savings. SVB is unusual in that a very large portion of its assets are in liquid securities which IN TIME would have covered deposits. The cost of this support (effectively buying those securities at par rather than at market price) is an easy step with potentially no cost. Most banks have complicated assets like real estate which are difficult both to value and liquidate. Screaming "bailout", as if all "bailouts" are the same and situation independent, just adds Dumbness, not Understanding. I hope to god you don't "agree" with National Review on this one, or with guy down the street who has a cousin who works as a teller.
So madame newsom was on the board of the bank
Oh, lord.
For the last four decades (maybe more, but that's as far back as my personal knowledge goes), the standard policy with a bank failure has been for the Feds to do their best to rescue all the depositors at 100%, regardless of the official insurance limit, by selling the bank to a stable institution.
This approach doesn't use Federal funds (except in a temporary working funds sense while arranging the sale, which is made up when the sale is made). Nor does it bail out the people who were in charge of the bank; the owners of the bank take a bath in the sale, while the senior management is regularly fired by the new owners.
It does work to the benefit of the depositors with balances exceeding $250k, which is in almost all cases everywhere businesses, and thus keeps a bank failure from spiraling into a bunch of business failures. It also works to the benefit of the FDIC, because the new bank assumes responsibility for the under-limit depositors, rather than the FDIC having to pay out.
Which is why it's standard procedure.
In principle, yes, you can argue there is moral hazard in that it means businesses are a bit less careful about banks than they would be if bank failures wiped out their working accounts. In practice, most business owners are not actually qualified to judge the soundness of banks form looking on the outside in, and letting lots of them be bankrupted by bank failures would simply increase the rate of bank runs, making everything worse.
SVB lost 20% of their deposits on Thursday. Not sure any regulation could have stopped that.
How does one explain SVB executives selling large amounts of stock shortly before the collapse?
I must wonder if this, and the failure of Signature Bank, is a backdoor approach to wrecking crypto and blockchain currency. I admit not knowing much about either, but the reporting of these failures seems to highlight their effect on people who have holdings in crypto. I also wonder if there will be more such failures forthcoming.
So madame newsom was on the board of the bank
Among others who asked for the people to take a knee, beg... in deference to Green deals, redistributive risk, DIEversity hiring practices, etc. This is why incestuous relationships are so fraught with risk.
The headline doesn't make numerical sense. More than 50% of the accounts, 51 out of 100, have balances over $250,000 - unlikely. I would discount everything written after that.
The headline doesn't make numerical sense. More than 50% of the accounts, 51 out of 100, have balances over $250,000 - unlikely. I would discount everything written after that.
a very large portion of its assets are in liquid securities which IN TIME would have covered deposits. The cost of this support (effectively buying those securities at par rather than at market price) is an easy step with potentially no cost.
Right - SVB wouldn't have to be in any kind of default if they had all the time they needed to liquidate. Time is what the FDIC is providing, and what I hope will fend off failures of their clients.
A bank that couldn't cover its loans with its assets would not, I trust, be "bailed out" in this way.
Government is getting more efficient. The program outlined here fast-tracks directly to 100% fraud waste and abuse.
Second, yes, they are allowing them to be pledged at "par" rather than with a haircut, but there's a price to that, which is that the lending against it is at a penalty rate and the advances are made with recourse, so if there is fraud (for example) and the collateral is not actually good the bank that does it is boned. Second, since you must pay interest on the advance (and that ain't zero anymore!) you are digging a bigger hole and had better have a way to get out of it.
In short all this does is stop the predatory circumstance that people like Ackman were trying to incite over the weekend. The basic problem, which is that OCC and the banking system generally, along with the ratings agencies, have sat on their hands with a known duration extending event, that is basically locking people in 3% mortgages that will not prepay as usual except under extreme duress, and on top of it with an interest rate mismatch that have a lower cash flow than current note issues of the same type and character which means their current value, if sold, is less.
- Sorry, No Empathy, No Bailouts And YES I MEAN IT
This is a complicated story. I need more information. I worry that the measures being taken will prolong inflation and incentivize irresponsible banking. I think this will slow Fed rate hikes. Short term, the Biden Admin will appear competent. The can will be kicked down the road.
Turns out big depositors had an unlimited insurance policy for free. You can't insure your house after it's in flames. Making them whole was the wrong thing. At a minimum they should have gotten a 20% haircut on their deposits.
I have no problem with saving depositors because this is not billionaires getting screwed.
It's admins, janitors, sales managers, food service workers, etc.
Maybe we need to have commercial banks that deal with companies only.
Make the insured amount $10M or whatever number.
The $250k certainly hasn't kept up with inflation...
First, the big depositors were not janitors. They were companies managed by megamillionaires. Roku had over $100 million. Clearly no due diligence on who they dealt with.
As to the last point, I believe the limit in 2008 was $100,000. Yes, common folks can easily have that much, though why they would leave it in a bank is questionable. But regardless, the common folks are not the big beneficiaries of this bailout. If they were only concerned about "contagion" they could have let the SVB depositors take a haircut and shored up other solvent banks that were getting run on.
The politicans in DC and that starts with Warren are creatures of the Banking industry and wall street. They get massive contributions from them, and go work on wall street or the banks after they retire. Or their family members do.
Or like Mitt Romney, they come from wallstreet.
Result? The Banks write the legislation. Then when they gamble and win they take the profits. When they gamble and lose, the US Government picks up the loss. Warren and others will come in and wag their finger, but will do nothing.
If banks are "Too big to fail" or they can't be allowed to fail because "their big depositers need to make a payroll" (Mitten's absurd reason), then they should be HEAVILY REGULATED or even nationalized.
Will they? of course NOT. Dumbo voters don't care. They will care when it affects their standard of living, but till then...
Bank runs seemed inevitable. When people say, "eventually you run out of other people's money", it does happen. California has been in a demographic decline with businesses of all sizes moving out of state. The reasons are quite obvious. Tax rates are high, regulation is really high, operating costs are extraordinary compared with other locations anywhere else, and now crime is rampant. With the businesses leaving, so go the workforce. Those leaving take their money, and then "you run out of other people's money". SVB ran out.
But California is critical to retaining the electoral majority, so it must be bailed out. If you lost your livestock in Ohio, you don't get a bailout. You didn't contribute to the electoral majority.
People bring up 250 K. The Fed is covering everyone because its the MILLIONAIRES that are at risk. You could raise it to $1 million or $5 million, and they still would be bailing everyone out.
BTW, the management of the bank SVB were shorting the stock and giving each other bonuses just before it got taken over. Free Enterprise baby!
Again, this is all part of the con. The con was after 2008, banks that were "too big to fail" would be HEAVILY regulated, the middle ones wouldn't be. Supposedly, they were small enough to fail. And the depositers knew the risks. But now, that's false. Nobody can fail.
Last post. In reading Mitt Romney's comments and tweets, I'm always astounded that Utah elected this guy to be their Senator. Mittens is a creature of wall street and DC. He works for the uniparty and the big investment firms. He's one of them. He didn't become a Republican till he was 45, and didn't live fulltime in Utah till he was 65.
Romney's always explaining the position of the NYTs and Wall Street Journal to the average people of Utah. He's not representing Utah in DC, he's representing DC to Utah.
Last post. In reading Mitt Romney's comments and tweets, I'm always astounded by Utah electing this guy to be their Senator. Mittens is a creature of wall street and DC. He works for the uniparty and the big investment firms. He's one of them. He didn't become a Republican till he was 45, and didn't live fulltime in Utah till he was 65.
Romney's always explaining the position of the NYTs and Wall Street Journal to the average people of Utah. He's not representing Utah in DC, he's representing DC to Utah.
Well, DEI seemed to be the priority for SVB.
DIEverity, ESG, and other social progressive, fiduciary avoidance schemes. SVB was marketed with lower risk by the firm's officer, which may be an act of incompetence or fraud to the diverse stakeholders. While Congress, specifically the House, is responsible for the progressive prices, the firm, barring forced participation a la mortgages of 2008, is accountable for risk assessment and communication. Congress's affirmative action proceeded in time, but the exponential curve has been a progressive process, and given the political climate, predictable. The same curve that preceded and signaled the catastrophic anthropogenic failure in East Palestine.
Jamie
If that is indeed the case then all they need to do is ride it out. Frank-Dodd has not done the taxpayers any favors but has rewarded the political grifters handsomely.
Have any depositors lost money in any bank failure in the past 75 years or more? My understanding is none have.
True, only $250m is insured by the FDIC. But in every (AFAIK) failure, the FDIC and other agencies have worked out that another bank take over the failed bank and make depositors whole.
Can anyone cite any exceptions?
I would be against increasing the $250m limit. I don't think it should even be that high. I think putting some of the risk on depositors would make them more careful about where they put their money. It would probably also make private deposit insurance more likely. Premiums could be paid by the depositor or by the bank but the premiums would be determined by actuarial risk rather than politics.
John Henry
John Cochrane's Blog
I'm reposting this here as it is a great guide for the layman. What's interesting to note is there are hundreds of thousands of regulations, thousands more regulators since 2008. Warren believes it still is not enough.
It is important to recall Elizabeth Warren is on Senate finance committees but she was fooled into believing GE 'doesn't pay taxes' because she doesn't understand what a tax loss carryforward is...
This bank run is not all that sophisticated- the bank invested in bonds that lost value to the point of not covering the banks liabilities (deposits). It's as sophisticated as the crisis in It's A Wonderful Life. Still above Warren's head, I see...
I have no doubt that I've misunderstood or miscommunicated part or all of the above
Finance person here- you did quite well, actually. Saved me a post...
The so-called "Chief Risk Officer" at SVB had a masters in..... public administration. Anyone care to bet if she passed any form of advanced mathematics -- you know, like for example Calculus or Statistics?
She was employed in similar positions at other banks, and presumably had taken calculus and statistics, as well as "quantitative methods" to get her MPA, but it doesn't look like she is a hardcore quant. More relevant, perhaps, is that she only got the job this year and there was no Chief Risk Officer for nine months before that.
Had Congress and the Federal Reserve not rolled back the stricter oversight, S.V.B. and Signature would have been subject to stronger liquidity and capital requirements to withstand financial shocks.
Ironically, Barney Frank, the former Congressman, is on the board of directors of Signature Bank, the other troubled bank, and supported the 2018 changes to Dodd-Frank.
More frequent stress tests might have helped, but who put the banks under such stress?
No bank can survive a run without outside assistance. That is why the privately owned Federal Reserve banks (Regulated by the govt Federal Reserve Board were originally set up.
No bank ever keeps enough cash to pay more than 10-20% of their deposits. Normally, this is fine, some people are putting cash in, some taking cash out daily and 10% normally covers any short term imbalance.
But when people think their bank is going to fail, they rush to take out their deposits. Checking deposits the bank has to pay immediately, "on demand". Passbook savings deposits they can hold for 90 days, though they seldom do.
Even the best bank can be ruined by a lot of people deciding to take their money out all at once. A CNN reporter could start a run with a casual comment. A run on one bank, well publicized, can precipitate a run on another bank and so on cascading into national financial disaster.
Even if all the banks have more assets than liabilities/deposits.
My understanding is that SVB has more assets than liabilities and that it is a liquidity not a solvency problem. That is, they can pay all deposits, just not today. Maybe not this month. But as they get loans repaid, they have cash to pay deposits.
That is the job of the FR Banks, to provide short term liquidity so that depositors can get their money. And, knowing they can get their money, that it is not lost, they don't need to take it from the bank and the run disipates. As things get back to normal, the FR Banks get paid back with interest.
And the purpose of the FDIC insurance is so that people feel "Well, my money is insured, I will always be able to get it, no need to take it out right now".
This does not have to be that big of a deal. What I am scared of is that the news organizations, for ratings, and politicians, for their own reasons, are blowing it up much larger than it needs to be. People will get panicked and collapse the banking system as a whole.
John Henry
Let the over $250K depositors take a 10% haircut. Supposedly SVB has assets to to fund 90%+ of all deposits. The big depositors should have paid more attention to how SVB was being run. A 10% haircut will encourage that in the future.
A bit off topic but I just finished reading "Power Failure" by William Cohan about the rise and fall of General Electric. I did not realize that GE essentially went out of business in 2022. The name still exists but it is basically a shell of itself.
Megan McCardle often describes General Motors as a bank that manufactures cars as a sideline. She may have described GE the same way but I don't remember specifically.
The thing that struck me about GE, and that the author went into a lot of detail about, was GE Capital. Originally set up to help finance sales of GE industrial equipment and household appliances and such, it became the tail wagging the dog. Most of GE's profits from the 80s on came from GE Capital. Since they were making so much from that, they seem to have forgotten about their other businesses.
The author quotes Jack Welch as saying "At GE Capital, I made heroes [because they contributed so much to the bottom line-jrh] I loved it. To play with money was so much better than ending metal."
Because they were not really a bank, GE Capital was largely unregulated and they seem to have played fast an loose. Though not necessarily illegally. In 2008, the govt decided to regulate them as a SIFI (Systemically Important Financial Institution) GE had to set up a regularoty department with 5,000 employees that cost them several billion dollars a year.
My take from the book is that if GE had stuck to doing what it had historically be superbly good at, they would still be in business today as a major industrial company.
The book does a great job of covering GE finances but it reads like a Tom Clancey novel. I could not put it down, almost 800 pages, I read it in 6 days. I highly recommend it.
John Henry
I mean it's fun to point fingers but SVB wasn't taking major positions in highly risky assets- it was mostly high quality bonds with a free bp in the portfolio companies they were servicing. The most critical thing to be said is they made bets believing the same thing our former Fed Chair Yellen believed- inflation was extinct. A stupid idea, to be sure...
...thing is, the bank(s) are probably not going to end up being the story here. I reckon its their portfolio customers...
"Blogger Darkisland said...
Have any depositors lost money in any bank failure in the past 75 years or more? My understanding is none have."
________
Uninsured depositors have been paid out in full in every bank failure in living memory, with just one exception — IndyMac, in 2008.
https://www.axios.com/2023/03/13/let-the-bailout-debate-begin-silicon-valley-bank-fdic
I believe FDIC regulations are just "suggestions".
"Let the over $250K depositors take a 10% haircut."
That would be POLITICAL SUICIDE.
These are the people who write the programs. These are the people who wrote Dominion software. These are the Silicon Valley arm of the Democrat Party busily deleting tweets.
There is absolutely no way in hell any of these people are taking Joe Biden ordered "haircuts." He would literally be burned out of the White House.
'As to the last point, I believe the limit in 2008 was $100,000. Yes, common folks can easily have that much, though why they would leave it in a bank is questionable. But regardless, the common folks are not the big beneficiaries of this bailout. If they were only concerned about "contagion" they could have let the SVB depositors take a haircut and shored up other solvent banks that were getting run on.'
I apologize for my poor writing skills.
When I say admins, janitors, etc. I am speaking of the people that work for companies that would be hurt by a SVB collapse.
I worked in tech all my life as a worker bee. There are tens of thousands of people like me who are not mega-rich tech bros that so many Americans seem to despise just because we live and work in Silicon Valley.
As for having $100,000+ in deposits, after the stock market meltdown that would normally be thought of as prudent, even smart...
tim maguire said...
$250,000 is too low in today's world. You don't have to be particularly wealthy not just to have, but to need safe funds greater than that. Even many small businesses couldn't make payroll at that amount.
1: The limit is per bank. What kind of idiot who has more than $250,000 in cash has it all in one bank?
2: Everyone gets the first $250,000 back. If you pay your employees biweekly (if it's monthly, the check isn't due for weeks), then unless your payroll is over $6.5 million / year, $250k is going to cover your next payroll. And you're going to have 2 weeks to figure out what to do for the next one, including opening up a new bank account and having new revenue go there
3" If your payroll is over $6.5 million / year, you have no credit lines, all your resources in one bank, and no revenue coming in, then you are an idiot whose business deserves to go under
'The Fed is covering everyone because its the MILLIONAIRES that are at risk.'
EVERYONE who works at a company that has money with SVB is at risk.
If payroll can't be met, or if the tech company (many are not tech companies btw) cannot pay vendors and goes bankrupt, everyone from the CEO down to the parking attendant LOSE THEIR JOB.
Sure, the CEO is likely to have money socked away somewhere, but it would hurt everyone...
To me, this looks like a mini-crisis. My response is to buy a few bank stocks cheap.
As far as I can tell, the right-wing response seems to be to claim that the sky is falling and hawk more GOLD IRAs.
Darkisland said...
My understanding is that SVB has more assets than liabilities and that it is a liquidity not a solvency problem. That is, they can pay all deposits, just not today. Maybe not this month. But as they get loans repaid, they have cash to pay deposits.
SVB had a lot of money in bonds. As interest rates goers up, the value of the bonds drops. A simple example:
Interest rate 5%: you pay a little bit over $95 to buy a bond that will be worth $100 in one year
Interest rate 10%: you pay a little bit over $90 to buy a bond that will be worth $100 in one year
IOW, When the interest rate goes up 5%, that bond drops $5 in value.
A year from now it will be worth $100, true. But if the deposited pulls out their money right now, and gets all $95, then they can buy the bond for $90, and have $5 left over
So the fact that "if you just wait, we'll get you your money" is technically true, but practically meaningless.
SVB's "risk management" officer was more interested in wanking about LGBTQ+ issues, than in making sure SVB didn't take on too much risk. So they didn't do anything to hedge those bond purchases, the value of their assets started to drop, and people started pulling their money out while they still could.
Got woke, went broke.
If you have all your assets in one bank, you're an idiot. Their website can go down, they can be hit with a ransomeware attack, any of a thousand bad things could happen.
So I have no sympathy for any supposedly "financially sophisticated" individual who had everything in that one woke bank
https://redstate.com/jenniferoo/2023/03/13/gross-incompetency-v-greed-zach-abraham-gives-inside-the-machine-intel-on-the-silicon-valley-bank-collapse-n715722
I just cannot enforce to you how stupid this was. They [Silicon Valley Bank] could have hedged out their duration risks a million times.[..]
We all know how rates went up, these guys could have hedged that interest rate exposure when mortgages hit three, when they hit three and a half, when they hit four and half, but they didn’t hedge. So, they just let a massive hole get blown in its balance sheet.
That’s what should scare people—It’s the gross incompetency.
SVB did this to themselves. Follow the link for more details
Terry di,
Definitely a bailout of the depositors.
Albeit far from perfect the best risk analysis are done by insurance companies. The government should step aside and let private insurers offer excess coverage for deposits over $250,000. When the insurance companies quote risk premiums on individual banks things will get spicy as depositors will then have to decide deductibles and premiums they are willing to pay. All these scandals all have the same core issues, regulatory capture, no severe punishment for the miscreants and the regulators who blessed the banks that failed and of course the 800 pound gorilla which is Congress and the political parties. Having the depositors pay the excess risk premiums if they want to be covered is the best way depositors can mange the risk while presumably minimizing the taxpayers exposure.
First, it's not clear SVB is solvent. They took risks investing in long-term treasuries whose value declined when rates went up. They chose not to hedge that risk in favor of a higher upside to profits. Banks are supposed to be supervised and either to hedge or add more capital, precisely to avoid this situation.
Second, SVB had a huge (I've seen figures ranging from 80% to 97%) share of its deposits that were not insured. For most banks that number is more like 25 to 50%.
It's one thing to waive the $250K limit for janitors who've accumulated $300K in savings, quite another to do so for companies that stupidly put tens of millions (in Roku's case it was over $100 million) in one bank with evidently no due diligence. Depositors with $millions in SVB should get a much-needed haircut. They won't lose everything, or even a large share of their deposits, but there has to be a penalty or we'll see this repeating every 10 years.
Finally, the Fed as lender of last resort is only supposed to lend to solvent banks. My guess is they won't look too hard to see if the recipients of their new loans are genuinely solvent.
The 250K limit is pretty small in today's world for almost any midsized company's working capital bank account.
Guess what? If you're insecure about that risk to you and your company exceed that limit, Wall Street would be pleased to sell you insurance on that risk. or we could just pretend that it exists - easier for everybody that way.
I do get the risk of of a broader bank run this week and that would be very messy and probably useful. I'm confused though about SVB's size. I've read that it's 16th, Not small, but not crucial. Better that they take the hit. This would have been an ugly, ugly week. Those tend to solve problems more than to build them.
The ides of March are upon us...best beware!
"The ides of March are upon us...best beware!"
I meant that in the original sense regarding debt.
Underwater because the Fed has to balance the promises of a Democrat House and President, and capital depletion of the working class through shared responsibility (e.g. progressive prices). Insufficient liquidity because their clients are waiting for a Green deal in the wake of unprofitable enterprises and the bank repayments thereafter.
The risk manager and board were awoke (sic) at the helm. They went after Trump for failing to predict market variability in a more dynamic climate and volatile environment.
You folks have obviously never worked in a small, pre-IPO startup.
My last job before retiring was working with 3 other people (I was employee number 4) in the founder's garage (really).
We were a small networking company that provided the back-end for wi-fi cameras.
You know, the ones that help protect your homes and monitor your kids while they're sleeping.
It's probably 50/50 that we were using SVB.
My boss (the founder) had not only venture money to run the business, but personal money that he had acquired over the years by being very creative and working his ass off.
So it's not just Roku, etc. that we're talking about, but you all have a bee in your bonnets about 'Silicon Valley millionaires and billionaires.'
That's only a very small part of the real world...
One thing to clarify- don't assume those uninsured deposits are business accounts or mostly business accounts simply because the numbers are big- there was a lot of money from a lot of personal accounts moved last week...
jim said...
To me, this looks like a mini-crisis. My response is to buy a few bank stocks cheap.
You do that Jim. Let us know how it goes when you sell those stocks.
The ones you're actually able to sell
Joe Smith said...
When I say admins, janitors, etc. I am speaking of the people that work for companies that would be hurt by a SVB collapse.
The worthwhile ones can find a job working someplace else.
When SVB's fans start worrying about the people that work for companies the Left hates, like mining firms, gan sellers, etc, then you can talk with me about the people at the companies the Left loves.
Poorly run companies SHOULD fail. That's how you keep them from being a continuing drain of resources.
Anyone so stupid they had all their company's funds in one bank is a poorly run company
rehajm said...
I mean it's fun to point fingers but SVB wasn't taking major positions in highly risky assets
Yes, they were.
it was mostly high quality bonds with a free bp in the portfolio companies they were servicing. The most critical thing to be said is they made bets believing the same thing our former Fed Chair Yellen believed- inflation was extinct. A stupid idea, to be sure...
So they made a delusional assumption (inflation is no more), they didn't hedge any of the risk, and then blew up when their delusional and unhedged assumption turned out to be delusional
Exactly what part of that qualifies as "good investing"?
When interest rates are low, long term bonds are ALWAYS a "highly risky asset".
Because even a small rise in interest rates leads to a steep drop in the value of the bond.
https://www.amortizationtable.org/
$1 million, 30 years fixed, 1% interest rate -> total interest $157,902
$1 million, 30 years fixed, 3% interest rate -> total interest $517,775
$1 million, 30 years fixed, 5% interest rate -> total interest $932,558
What's that mean? That means that the bond that was going to bring you X interest in 30 years at 1%, is only worth 1/3 as much when the rate is 3%, because now 1/3 as much money invested for those 30 years will bring you that much interest.
Long term bonds are risky. Always. because if interest rates are low, then higher rates make the bond worth a lot less.
And if interest rates are high, there's a good chance the bond issuer won't be able to pay it off when it comes due
That's why banks run by people who care more about risk than about pronouns hedge the risk.
Which SVB didn't do
Now they're bankrupt, as they should be
“SVB's "risk management" officer was more interested in wanking about LGBTQ+ issues, than in making sure SVB didn't take on too much risk. So they didn't do anything to hedge those bond purchases, the value of their assets started to drop, and people started pulling their money out while they still could.
Got woke, went broke.”
———————————————————————
So, now we hear that wokeness and DEI caused the banks to fail, the train catastrophe, your baldness and hemorrhoids.
jim said...
"To me, this looks like a mini-crisis. "
My guess is you're not a taxpayer.
"Poorly run companies SHOULD fail. That's how you keep them from being a continuing drain of resources."
Agree. Many of the tech companies where I worked failed. I lost all of my stock options and had to look for another job. I accept that.
For that reason, investors in the bank should not be bailed out, and weren't.
"Anyone so stupid they had all their company's funds in one bank is a poorly run company"
Do you have any idea how IMPOSSIBLE it would be to run any business of any decent size if you are limited to $250k per bank?
Most brokerages and many banks offer services that break up your balances to avoid exceeding the FDIC limit and offer sweeps to payables and payroll accounts on demand. I worked in an office that did this kind of thing back in the 70's with accounting paper and teletypes - computers make it easy. Part of the issue here is that people can now hear speculation about a bank and draw their money out in a couple of key strokes until too many people do it.
https://wallstreetonparade.com/2023/03/silicon-valley-bank-was-a-wall-street-ipo-pipeline-in-drag-as-a-federally-insured-bank-fhlb-of-san-francisco-was-quietly-bailing-it-out/
I just hope this financial turmoil in no way impedes our intent to pay Ukrainian pensions or support Catholic and Lutheran charities streamlining of migrant crossings.
https://twitter.com/paulsperry_/status/1635395552765681664?cxt=HHwWgIDR3eXli7ItAAAA
Most of these banks are loaded to the gills with US government and other AAA rated debt instruments that were purchased when rates were much lower than they are today, and when inflation was much lower than it is today. All of those banks are sitting on really large unrealized losses that get realized if the depositor base ever decides en masse they want to take their money out. This is always an issue with fractional reserve banks- in the case a run on the bank, the bank is always going to end up insolvent because they can never sell their assets for what they book them at in their ledgers.
Next week's Fed meeting is going to be interesting.
This weekend reminds me strongly of March 2008. Bear Stearns that weekend looked like a mini-crisis, too, that got efficiently solved by "brilliant" governmental action. The consequences of this past weekend will take months, at a minimum, to reveal themselves.
As for SVB being unhedged- with the magnitude of unrealized losses sitting in the system today, hedges are only going to be good if the vast majority of those unrealized losses stay that way because there is limit to how much money backs the hedge sellers, too.
Most brokerages and many banks offer services that break up your balances to avoid exceeding the FDIC limit and offer sweeps to payables and payroll accounts on demand... Part of the issue here is that people can now hear speculation about a bank and draw their money out in a couple of key strokes until too many people do it.
Exactly, Leora, and also as John Henry pointed out above,
Even the best bank can be ruined by a lot of people deciding to take their money out all at once.
I'm sure SVB was not "the best bank." But they had a good reputation.
The larger question: It seems to me that no one has ever come up with a better way to facilitate a giant, robust, and nimble economy than large banks holding lots of other people's money and making it pretty readily available to borrow. It was a steam engine-level innovation. And how, and how much, to regulate the banking industry while maintaining maximum civil liberties and while not causing the engines of the economy to grind to a stop is not an easy question.
As a fiscal conservative I want the least amount of regulation that we can function with, the lowest taxes we can keep our infrastructure running with, and the greatest opportunity for people to succeed beyond their or my wildest dreams, even if I'm not among them. (Opportunity for failure is always there, in every system.) Envy pollutes my soul; I try, sometimes even successfully, to root it out when I find it in myself.
One issue I have yet to see anywhere was the timing of the run on SVB. The Biden's administration's ongoing public position has been that inflation has been a passing reaction to reopening the closed economy. As businesses reestablished supply chains, renegotiated contracts, etc. the sudden jump in inflation would decline. This is a fine concept when the government is attempting to help enterprises to restart, but this administration has been more interested in "changing America" by lowering the use of traditional energy sources, which tend to be less expensive to users than the new sources of energy which results in rising costs of all products and services on a permanent basis.
Until about two weeks ago, the market believed that the Fed was getting a handle on inflation, then the belief changed, leading to a fear of greater Fed action, raising rates further which lowered the current value of SVB's holdings. Meanwhile, SVB had sold its hedges on the bond portfolio to generate earnings leaving the portfolio partly uncovered as this realization of the Fed's future action became clear to the world. Thus, in my opinion, and contrary to Senator Warren, this collapse is a result of the bank's management's drive for earnings at the risk of the portfolio, which was caused by the Biden Asministration's energy policy. This also may be a partial explanation to the approval of the drilling in Alaska.
"My guess is you're not a taxpayer." Bad guess.
Yancey Ward said...
As for SVB being unhedged- with the magnitude of unrealized losses sitting in the system today, hedges are only going to be good if the vast majority of those unrealized losses stay that way because there is limit to how much money backs the hedge sellers, too.
If you go bankrupt because your moronic unhedged positions went belly up, as was the case the SVB, then the failure is your incompetence
If you go bankrupt because the people you hedged with went bankrupt from all their positions collapsing, then you might not be an incompetent buffoon.
Whatever "good reputation" SVB had, it was unjustified. Because anyone who is not a moron has been aware since 2020 that the US was heading for massive inflation, which meant heading for higher interest rates, but SVB sunk a ton of money on the proposition that interest rates weren't going to go up
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